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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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osby

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I think it's reasonable enough to be annoyed with Nintendo's marketing at this point.

I'm just not sure if this thread is the right place to dedicate pages of complaints about the lack of news.
 
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Idon

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I completely agree. While I do agree it is frustrating to not hear communication from Nintendo for so long, the smash speculation thread is not the place to vent as it distracts from the focus of the thread and doesn't add anything of interest to the conversation.

and is precisely why we should instead be discussing the exciting and very possible reality of the next Smash Bros DLC character being from the critically acclaimed cult-classic Shin Megami Tensei series. If you would please check out my character support thread in my signature you'll find all the information about the series and its myriad games! Please I'm so despera-
 
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SneakyLink

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By the way Sakurai is going to cover more anniversaries time to time so expect more posts like the Mother 31st anniversary.
 
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snowgolem

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By the way Sakurai is going to cover more anniversaries time to time so expect more posts like the Mother 31st anniversary.
“And to games that I can cover”. Do you think that means games outside of Smash, like SMRPG, games with strict owners, like FF7, or games which will cause mass speculation in the community?
 

SharkLord

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I think it's reasonable enough to be annoyed with Nintendo's marketing at this point.

I'm just not sure if this thread is the right place to dedicate pages of complaints about the lack of news.
I agree. This is the newcomer thread, meant to discuss newcomers in. It's fine to be upset with the lack of news, but dragging the whole thread down with it doesn't make the wait any easier.
“And to games that I can cover”. Do you think that means games outside of Smash, like SMRPG, games with strict owners, like FF7, or games which will cause mass speculation in the community?
He probably just means he'll only celebrate with his usual Smash pictures.
 

Aetheri

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By the way Sakurai is going to cover more anniversaries time to time so expect more posts like the Mother 31st anniversary.
Well guess what franchise is turning 34 next week!

:samus:
 

Rie Sonomura

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November is F-Zero’s 30th. If we can’t get a new game or even a remaster, at LEAST let us have acknowledgment in Smash
 

Venus of the Desert Bloom

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I think it's reasonable enough to be annoyed with Nintendo's marketing at this point.

I'm just not sure if this thread is the right place to dedicate pages of complaints about the lack of news.
Social Thread is best but, given the circumstances, it’s understandable that discussion occurs here as well. Just try to keep it limited and not to let it eclipse actual newcomer speculation.
 
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PLANTMAN

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By the way Sakurai is going to cover more anniversaries time to time so expect more posts like the Mother 31st anniversary.
If there is an anniversary sakurai pick for xenoblade 2 I wonder how many people will take this as a deconfirmation while pic of the day has nothing to do with future dlc contenders?:ultswordfighter:

but I think these anniversary pics are mostly gonna be for very older titles/franchises
 
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MooMew64

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I'm still not completely sold on us getting any normal Directs period this year.

If a General was coming, why introduce this new "Partner Showcase" formula? Why not save stuff for the big General? I dunno, it just doesn't add up. I really do think at best we'll get monthly partner showcases, twitter shadow drops, and maybe a Mario anniversary focused Direct Mini. FP7 is, IMO, probably getting dropped in a Sakurai Presents sometime in late August at the earliest, but I also am kind of feeling like they might wait 'till early September.
 

N3ON

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I have to tell you this is where i disagree with you. With all due respect, I can only conclude that we both must have ran in completely different circles of people if this is the conclusion you've come to. It's actually kind of concerning to me because it gives off the vibe you think I'm lying or looking at all of this in retrospect with evil intent. I would not sit here and come into this thread with all of the people in it siding against me and tell you this was so without deep enough personal conviction. I have NOTHING to gain but ridicule for the positions im taking and this conversation we're having, but I stand by what I have said: Supporting the characters I have fought for has been a living hell filled with the exact things I've mentioned, and it is.....STARTLING....to me, That someone who's a Banjo main like you doesn't see what I'm talking about. NO ONE can ever convince me that the sick things I've been forced to endure as a result of my support never happened. Im sorry, But yes: "Never Ever" was and still is a very real phase in certain places. Maybe not this one (People can be far more low key about it here) But if you're going to tell me support for a character is not something that gets you bullied, harassed and ridiculed, you'd be incorrect. People were told for years supporting Ridley was a fools errand, people were DEFINITELY that way toward K, Rool ("Your fat irrelevant lizard will never be in smash") and ESPECIALLY Banjo! God, I can still hear "Banjoke" and "Cereal box mascot" in my dreams.

I wish I could convince you otherwise, but I know I'm not going to, and I'm sure whatever your response is will garner a ton of likes because we all like to pretend this is a just, good and fair community that's largely tolerant to all, but for me and many others that hasn't been the case and only because some of our characters are in the game has the bullying finally ceased. I'm sure you might argue that im blowing up some tiny, insignificant portion of people and I wish I could tell you that felt like the case, but I think it's important that this community starts coming aware that it has a major problem with elitism and exclusion, because it absolutely does and I've seen it first hand. We need to start treating people like actual people and not judge them based on what characters they do or don't like. It DOES happen. and it has an effect on us. Just ask @Fatmanonice about the mental pain people cause him ever day and what it's done to him. This behavior EXISTS and to turn a blind eye to it only encourages it. I don't expect you to agree with me, but I'm asking you: Try to understand i'm not just saying these things for sympathy or gratification. They are real, they are toxic and they can hurt people.
Jeez, there's a lot to unpack here. Sorry for the impending long post.

First of all, there's no need to be so defensive. This only needs to be as complicated as people discussing characters they'd like to see in a video game, and exchanging opinions and theories on the internet. If someone has set a precedent that one ought to be this emotionally invested, where "living hell" can be an applicable term, where detractors appropriate dreams, they're probably unhealthily invested emotionally themselves, or they're doing themselves no favours to mitigate the situation. It's not something to aspire towards.

I'm inferring a projection upon me for handwaving toxicity. You seem to be under the impression that by saying that those characters weren't considered impossible means they weren't subject to criticism. And that, to me, implies that you find thinking a character impossible and badmouthing that character to be one in the same. Well, some people are able to divorce their desires from their expectations.

Look to Banjo, for one. For a long time, people considered him basically ineligible as a first-party character for a competing company. And, surprise surprise, in that thirteen year stint, virtually no one was badmouthing him. In fact, he was not being talked about at all, really. Because that is what happens when a character is considered impossible. Their conversation dries up. I mean I never thought the character would happen, does that mean I must hate him? Does that mean everyone hated him? People only began to rag on the character when the character was treated as a viable possibility.

That silence indicative of dismissal did not ever happen for K. Rool, for Geno, or even for Ridley. Even when things were looking most dire for Ridley, after Sakurai basically said he was too big, for every person who said, "well, Ridley's never happening", you'd have the "but Sakurai can change his mind!" response. If anything, Villager was considered more impossible than Ridley was, because before Villager, there was no history of Sakurai changing his mind. Why is Villager not a "never-ever"?

And that brings us to the main dissonance here. If you're going to conflate people saying "x isn't going to happen" with the consensus being that the character is impossible, you're going to have to look far past the confines of four characters. Let's, let's take uh, Saki, for example. I'm sure most people would say that he isn't going to happen. That doesn't mean they think he's outright impossible. I'm sure most would agree he's not impossible.

Not only is there a difference between thinking something won't happen and thinking it happening is actually impossible, but just about every character has someone who believes they won't happen. Many characters have people out there who, for one (often faulty) reason or another, think they will never happen. The list hardly ends at four names, but you can't gauge things based on fringe voices that will classify characters as impossible when the majority typically places them from anywhere from possible to long-shot to maybe even likely. You can't lend more weight to the intermittent detraction than the actual majority. Then no character wins.

I mean, if the circle you ran in had people saying only four characters weren't going to happen, I'm envious.

I could probably rattle off over a dozen characters already on the roster who someone at some point said was never going to happen. But just because someone says it, doesn't mean it's at all close to most people saying it. If you cast a net so wide that someone somewhere saying "x won't happen" counts, your quartet, again, is much more than a quartet. People have said it about Doom Slayer. People have said it about Heihachi. 2B, Lara Croft, Master Chief, Crash, Reimu, Scorpion, Shantae, Dante, Sora, KOS-MOS, Cuphead, Sans, take your pick, the list goes on. It'd be rarer to find a character that no one has ever said "will never happen".

To be real, characters like Ryu and Cloud were at one point thought to be more impossible than characters like K. Rool or Geno, who were merely, at their lowest, thought to be likely omissions. But never impossible. The only character of the four poorly-named "never-evers" that was actually thought to be impossible by the majority, for an extended period of time, was Banjo. And even then that had stopped years prior to his inclusion.

It's a shame that people feel the need to attack characters, and the supporters thereof on that basis. You'll find that I didn't do that here, or in the previous replies. I don't condone it, and, in reality, it's ancillary to the point I was making. Which might be why it seemed like I was looking past it. But if you spend time in this thread, you'll see people here don't believe the community as a whole is on the up and up. I don't. This just isn't about that.

The point is that unless you want to start counting every voice, three of those four characters were not considered impossible. And if you do want to start counting every voice, then there were a hell of a lot more than just those four that someone said would never happen. Where's Villager? Cloud? Ryu? Piranha Plant? The point was certainly not that those aforementioned four never received criticism. I mean, c'mon.

And also, tangentially, it might do you well to step back from things a bit if your disposition revolves so much around the adversarial nature of the fanbase. If you wanna know why I've been able to stick it out so long without losing it, it's because you've got to resist getting overly invested in outcomes or arguments (despite what the length of this post might suggest ^_^;). I can't control what other people are going to say, I can't control the decisions Sakurai and Nintendo make, all I can do is choose whether to let it roll off my back or not. It is just a video game, it's not worth mental distress.
 
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snowgolem

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if the direct happens on august 20th then it’s automatically either chell from the portal series of games on steam or phoenix wright from the ace attorney series of games on ds, 3ds, and switch
because everybody knows it’s against the law to work for months on a character and then make it not the character the birthday boy wants :dkmelee:
 
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Koopaul

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I would argue that because the Ridley, K. Rool, and Geno fanbase were so vocal and passionate, they became a bigger target of ridicule than any other fanbase. As a Ridley supporter back in the day I understand how much you get mocked for standing by a character people think are impossible. That being said, everyone needs to take it easy. It's a video game for petes sake.
 

StrangeKitten

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Something that just occurred to me: even if Ridley was the base for Banjo, who's to say some stuff from Duck Hunt wasn't also used? Same goes for Min Min - Captain Falcon was certainly the base, but I could see Bayo's f-smash be used to help build her. I'm not trying to claim that the whole character glitches thing is 100% certain. We'll probably never really know. But I think it could still hold some weight
 

snowgolem

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Something that just occurred to me: even if Ridley was the base for Banjo, who's to say some stuff from Duck Hunt wasn't also used? Same goes for Min Min - Captain Falcon was certainly the base, but I could see Bayo's f-smash be used to help build her. I'm not trying to claim that the whole character glitches thing is 100% certain. We'll probably never really know. But I think it could still hold some weight
I thought that was a given. They’ll still use one main base for a character, but if a specific attack is similar to an already existing one, they’ll just steal it from somebody else. Because why not? It works.
 

Sc_Ev0lution

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It feels like Indie characters are called impossible way more than Geno. Might just be me though.
I think while there's some overlap indie characters and Geno are unlikely for different reasons. Of course, you'd have to compare and contrast those reasons to argue which is more unlikely. And also, there is variation in the likelihood of indie characters; some are more likely than others, so there may be a specific indie who is more likely than Geno.

Out of curiosity, when you say indie characters are less likely than Geno do you mean that the most likely indie character (whoever that may be) is less likely than Geno, or the cumulative likelihood of all indie characters is less than Geno's?

Edit: I reread your comment. My mistake, I thought you were talking about their chances rather than their perceptions. I would agree that indie characters are seen as less likely than Geno, with the possible exception of Sans, at least before the Mii Costume. I think this is reflected in people outside of hardcore speculation mentioning Geno frequently in newcomer discussion.

That said, while I'd have to give it more thought, at first blush I would agree with the general sentiment.

There are literally thousands of indie characters and only one Geno, but I think most people would agree that there are only a handful of indie characters that are reasonable(?) at this time: Shantae, Reimu, Quote, Frisk, Gunvolt of those I could think of off the top of my head, though there are probably quite a few more (I don't consider Minecraft Steve to be an indie rep. While I wouldn't enjoy his inclusion, he's probably more likely than any singular indie or Geno).

I don't think Geno is likely, so I think you could make strong arguments why any one may be more likely than him, but my gut says most indies even from a curated list probably aren't. However, I also don't think indies compete for a rep in the same way Geno might among Square reps, so their total chances are higher than his.
 
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MattOnwheels

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Jeez, there's a lot to unpack here. Sorry for the impending long post.

First of all, there's no need to be so defensive. This only needs to be as complicated as people discussing characters they'd like to see in a video game, and exchanging opinions and theories on the internet. If someone has set a precedent that one ought to be this emotionally invested, where "living hell" can be an applicable term, where detractors appropriate dreams, they're probably unhealthily invested emotionally themselves, or they're doing themselves no favours to mitigate the situation. It's not something to aspire towards.

I'm inferring a projection upon me for handwaving toxicity. You seem to be under the impression that by saying that those characters weren't considered impossible means they weren't subject to criticism. And that, to me, implies that you find thinking a character impossible and badmouthing that character to be one in the same. Well, some people are able to divorce their desires from their expectations.

Look to Banjo, for one. For a long time, people considered him basically ineligible as a first-party character for a competing company. And, surprise surprise, in that thirteen year stint, virtually no one was badmouthing him. In fact, he was not being talked about at all, really. Because that is what happens when a character is considered impossible. Their conversation dries up. I mean I never thought the character would happen, does that mean I must hate him? Does that mean everyone hated him? People only began to rag on the character when the character was treated as a viable possibility.

That silence indicative of dismissal did not ever happen for K. Rool, for Geno, or even for Ridley. Even when things were looking most dire for Ridley, after Sakurai basically said he was too big, for every person who said, "well, Ridley's never happening", you'd have the "but Sakurai can change his mind!" response. If anything, Villager was considered more impossible than Ridley was, because before Villager, there was no history of Sakurai changing his mind. Why is Villager not a "never-ever"?

And that brings us to the main dissonance here. If you're going to conflate people saying "x isn't going to happen" with the consensus being that the character is impossible, you're going to have to look far past the confines of four characters. Let's, let's take uh, Saki, for example. I'm sure most people would say that he isn't going to happen. That doesn't mean they think he's outright impossible. I'm sure most would agree he's not impossible.

Not only is there a difference between thinking something won't happen and thinking it happening is actually impossible, but just about every character has someone who believes they won't happen. Many characters have people out there who, for one (often faulty) reason or another, think they will never happen. The list hardly ends at four names, but you can't gauge things based on fringe voices that will classify characters as impossible when the majority typically places them from anywhere from possible to long-shot to maybe even likely. You can't lend more weight to the intermittent detraction than the actual majority. Then no character wins.

I mean, if the circle you ran in had people saying only four characters weren't going to happen, I'm envious.

I could probably rattle off over a dozen characters already on the roster who someone at some point said was never going to happen. But just because someone says it, doesn't mean it's at all close to most people saying it. If you cast a net so wide that someone somewhere saying "x won't happen" counts, your quartet, again, is much more than a quartet. People have said it about Doom Slayer. People have said it about Heihachi. 2B, Lara Croft, Master Chief, Crash, Reimu, Scorpion, Shantae, Dante, Sora, KOS-MOS, Cuphead, Sans, take your pick, the list goes on. It'd be rarer to find a character that no one has ever said "will never happen".

To be real, characters like Ryu and Cloud were at one point thought to be more impossible than characters like K. Rool or Geno, who were merely, at their lowest, thought to be likely omissions. But never impossible. The only character of the four poorly-named "never-evers" that was actually thought to be impossible by the majority, for an extended period of time, was Banjo. And even then that had stopped years prior to his inclusion.

It's a shame that people feel the need to attack characters, and the supporters thereof on that basis. You'll find that I didn't do that here, or in the previous replies. I don't condone it, and, in reality, it's ancillary to the point I was making. Which might be why it seemed like I was looking past it. But if you spend time in this thread, you'll see people here don't believe the community as a whole is on the up and up. I don't. This just isn't about that.

The point is that unless you want to start counting every voice, three of those four characters were not considered impossible. And if you do want to start counting every voice, then there were a hell of a lot more than just those four that someone said would never happen. Where's Villager? Cloud? Ryu? Piranha Plant? The point was certainly not that those aforementioned four never received criticism. I mean, c'mon.

And also, tangentially, it might do you well to step back from things a bit if your disposition revolves so much around the adversarial nature of the fanbase. If you wanna know why I've been able to stick it out so long without losing it, it's because you've got to resist getting overly invested in outcomes or arguments (despite what the length of this post might suggest ^_^;). I can't control what other people are going to say, I can't control the decisions Sakurai and Nintendo make, all I can do is choose whether to let it roll off my back or not. It is just a video game, it's not worth mental distress.
Without getting into this deeply, I still feel as if you are greatly oversimplifying a great problem within the community, and no: You would not be envious of the circles that I and others had to contend with. It might be easy for you to think that, and tell people like me that it's our job to step back, but I wouldn't wish what I've endured on anyone. I know that you yourself are not actively looking to contribute to that problem, but I still think you fail to realize just how deep it goes. It's regrettable to me because I really appreciate the honest dialog you're trying to have about the subject, but with my physical handicap I cannot engage in a lengthy response to your points. I can only tell you that until you have received doxing threats because if the character you support in a children's video game, or had to council others over the grief caused by the way their support is mocked, you will never fully be able to understand. Your assertion that there was never any direct links to the four characters made by people simply isn't true. There was, for the longest time, a prevailing school of thought that insisted those four fanbases together were to be rightly shunned, mocked, and rejected because no "Sensible" Smash player would root for them. I'll double down on what I said: Supporting Ridley, K Rool etc was not "Fun" - it was not something I wish on the fan base of any character not in the game by now, and if you really feel like you haven't experienced that, more power to you. I have entire discords of people who wish they could say the same. It isn't our faults, either, We don't choose to let these things happen. It happens because there is a vile part of the culture around Smash that makes it okay. I know you can't control that and aren't trying to add to it, but I think you are in a sense trivializing what people go through when you assert that " X had a longer shot than Y" etc.

Again, if it seems like im glossing over your points its not because im trying to undermine you intentionally, It's because I physically can't answer it all so I have to summarize my thoughts in general. It is my position that we have not reached a point of true tolerance in this community and it has a long way to go in addressing these things. I realize there is a difference between honest discussion and exclusion, but the fact remains those things aren't always so easy to differentiate between and I feel that you are still downplaying how big of a problem it is, even if you may not be intending to.

I also realize that this has veered off from the discussion of the selection process and I'm sorry for that. It all just ties into this subject for me and I happen to be very passionate about it. I'm sorry I haven't been able to address you as effectively as I want. Please don't take this as me not having an argument or as an unwillingness to have a dialog. Like I said, this discussion is personally important to me but i'm just not capable of building a sufficient response. I encourage someone else--anyone--to better explain what i'm trying to say. I know someone out there has to understand and can word it better than I.
 

Ben Holt

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I would argue that because the Ridley, K. Rool, and Geno fanbase were so vocal and passionate, they became a bigger target of ridicule than any other fanbase. As a Ridley supporter back in the day I understand how much you get mocked for standing by a character people think are impossible. That being said, everyone needs to take it easy. It's a video game for petes sake.
I always found the "Ridley's too big" argument preposterous.
Ridley's always had a randomish size like Bowser ranging from barely bigger than the protagonist to big as a building.
The only characters I see as "too big" are characters the size of continents like Andross or Bionis.
 

Eremurus

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I always found the "Ridley's too big" argument preposterous.
Ridley's always had a randomish size like Bowser ranging from barely bigger than the protagonist to big as a building.
The only characters I see as "too big" are characters the size of continents like Andross or Bionis.
Andross would be so trippy to have in Smash.
 

Swamp Sensei

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Come to think of it...

I can't remember when those four character were called "the four never evers" until after two of them were confirmed.
 

Idon

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Come to think of it...

I can't remember when those four character were called "the four never evers" until after two of them were confirmed.
Honestly, I can't remember when people grouped up characters at all unless they were competing with one another for a shot in the roster.
 

ARandomFruit

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I think while there's some overlap indie characters and Geno are unlikely for different reasons. Of course, you'd have to compare and contrast those reasons to argue which is more unlikely. And also, there is variation in the likelihood of indie characters; some are more likely than others, so there may be a specific indie who is more likely than Geno.

Out of curiosity, when you say indie characters are less likely than Geno do you mean that the most likely indie character (whoever that may be) is less likely than Geno, or the cumulative likelihood of all indie characters is less than Geno's?
I was mostly talking about what I've heard other people say but it might be different based on where you are on the internet I've just personally seen more people say "100% a Indie rep isn't getting in" than "100% Geno isn't getting in" but I don't go on 4chan so that might be why lol, but you are right about the fact that they are unlikely for different reasons.

But if you still wanna know my opinion still I think personally the most likely indie character is less likely than Geno but that might just be pessimism talking because I want some indie characters (like Reimu and Quote) but I don't think any character I really want will get in.
 

MattOnwheels

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Come to think of it...

I can't remember when those four character were called "the four never evers" until after two of them were confirmed.
Honestly, I can't remember when people grouped up characters at all unless they were competing with one another for a shot in the roster.
I'm happy for you both then. It happened though and it continues and will continue until we evolve as a community.
 

Opossum

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Honestly, I can't remember when people grouped up characters at all unless they were competing with one another for a shot in the roster.
Any instance is usually super anecdotal. It'll change from place to place and is never really indicative of the whole fanbase.

For example, on this site during Smash 4 speculation, the "Elite Four (+ Champion)", as they were called, were Ridley, K. Rool, Little Mac, and Mega Man, with Mewtwo as the Champion. That is, unless you didn't count Mewtwo because he was a veteran, in which case Mega Man was promoted to Champion since he got in very early and Palutena was added to the four.

BUT STILL those six in general were very much grouped together here back then. It's kinda weird how people seem to forget that at that point, Mega Man, Little Mac, and Palutena were among the most requested newcomers. People just get used to them being here and focus on those who didn't make the cut.
 

snowgolem

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I know this is off topic, but I feel like if Fire Emblem character’s renders had more dynamic poses and variation, people wouldn’t think they’re all so similar.
They have some of the most boring renders in the game. Most of them are just standing there with their weapon. The only dynamic posing is with M!Robin and F!Corrin, and even those aren’t that unique. Seriously, what’s up with that?
 

Swamp Sensei

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I know this is off topic, but I feel like if Fire Emblem character’s renders had more dynamic poses and variation, people wouldn’t think they’re all so similar.
They have some of the most boring renders in the game. Most of them are just standing there with their weapon. The only dynamic posing is with M!Robin and F!Corrin, and even those aren’t that unique. Seriously, what’s up with that?
Roy's is pretty darn dynamic.
 

snowgolem

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Roy's is pretty darn dynamic.
Aghh, I knew I was forgetting someone.
He’s pretty much the exception. Some are holding their swords at different angles, and some are leaning or smth, but Roy seems to be the only one who isn’t just standing with a sword. And for some reason, people often see Roy as more unique from Marth in this game specifically. So who knows, maybe the render really does have something to do with how people view the character.
 
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