Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Garteam]

What's interesting is about the idea of a first-party majority pass with infrequent third parties is there's more money to go to individual licensing fees. Looking back to last pass, we only had one character who hailed from a massive franchise and likely took boatload of money to license: Hero. Joker, Banjo, and Terry were presumably much less expensive to license than (most) past third parties, which was likely how Sakurai and Nintendo balanced the books on having a majority of the characters be guests. You couldn't have the pass be, say, Crash, Hero, Master Chief, and Heihachi, that's too many big fish financially. You need to either reduce the number of third party fighters or focus on third parties that cost less.

If we're only getting two to three third parties this time around and the budget for both passes is the same, the amount of money that can be spent on each license has likely gone up dramatically. So, even though we'll be seeing less third parties, I think the ones we will be seeing will be massive characters that make the fanbase go "They got HIM for Smash!?".

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Yeah, I don't think many people realize it, but ARMS is as old now as Splatoon was when Inkling was revealed.

Not to mention it's also about as old as Pokemon was when it got into 64.

I feel like people forget how swift of a turnaround that series had, given it's been a part of Smash since the beginning.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Its worth noting that even a preference of first party characters has divisions about what kind of fighters should come in.

If I had the sense that the rest of the pass were in fact the 4th main characters of franchises like Bandanna Dee, Dixie, Impa, etc I'd be thrilled. But then you have many who would prefer unexplored franchises getting fighters like Chibi-Robo, Isaac, Andy from Advance Wars.

The entire rest of the pass could be all Nintendo and you'd still have a decent chance of first party fans thinking the wrong kind of fighters got in.

 

[RileyXY1]

What's interesting is about the idea of a first-party majority pass with infrequent third parties is there's more money to go to individual licensing fees. Looking back to last pass, we only had one character who hailed from a massive franchise and likely took boatload of money to license: Hero. Joker, Banjo, and Terry were presumably much less expensive to license than (most) past third parties, which was likely how Sakurai and Nintendo balanced the books on having a majority of the characters be guests. You couldn't have the pass be, say, Crash, Hero, Master Chief, and Heihachi, that's too many big fish financially. You need to either reduce the number of third party fighters or focus on third parties that cost less.

If we're only getting two to three third parties this time around and the budget for both passes is the same, the amount of money that can be spent on each license has likely gone up dramatically. So, even though we'll be seeing less third parties, I think the ones we will be seeing will be massive characters that make the fanbase go "They got HIM for Smash!?".

I don't think that we're going to get any big name third parties.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I was being hyperbolic, but the whole addition really does come of as a desperate attempt to revive it after years of being dormant.

"Dormant."

Dude, its three years old. It was financial and critical success. It has a dedicated community.

I'm sorry its not Fifa with a new release every year, and heaven forbid, its not the topic of conversation every darn day of the year, but ARMS doesn't need a revival.

It succeeded. It's not dead. The support didn't get cut off due to disappointing sales numbers or anything. They just got done with the game, and heck Spring Tron was thrown in as a bonus due to good sales. And I have the source to prove it.

"Desperate attempt to revive it," my ass.

 

[Nekoo]

It's kind of depressing wanting a lot of first parties.

Yeah my most wanted are Phoenix Wright and Lloyd but...

I want a lot of first parties too. To hear people say they'd be downright disappointing kinda hurts.

I can't blame anyone, you like what you like but...

I guess, people's wants are just changing.



I know I'm not alone in wanting first parties, one look at the poll shows there's still a lot of demand. But still, if a character I thought was hype like ARMS got a meh from everyone... I guess a lot of my most wanted aren't as wanted as I thought.

The thing is that, the way I see it.

DLC are a one and Only chance in a lifetime deal for characters.
It's easier to make third party deal for DLC compared to first party as you can make price cut deal, percentage margin, or buy the licence for a character more easily alongside having more room to breath development time wise as your hands are not as full with others stuff to do.
Peoples are excited for third parties because for lots of them, we see them as "HOLY **** ITS ****ING HAPPENING LETS ****ING GO!" moments, like Cloud, Joker or Banjo.

Sure, Cloud came back in Ultimate. Sure Joker and Banjo could come back next game. But as it stand right now, them being DLC might have been WHAT made it possible for them to get in the game and discuss with Atlus/Microsoft.

First Parties characters? They don't have that wow effect. They're not as attractive, because YOU KNOW that they could have been added in the base game. Or in the next game in the base roster. They're Nintendo Properties, they're character we do expect from Smash concept itself, and it feels like you're just getting something you should of have gotten or could have gotten later.

That's my take on it. And I love Byleth or think the ARMS character will be cool. But thinking that we could get more first parties in the pass is generally a downside with how amazing the first pass was.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

The thing is that, the way I see it.

DLC are a one and Only chance in a lifetime deal for characters.
It's easier to make third party deal for DLC compared to first party as you can make price cut deal, percentage margin, or buy the licence for a character more easily alongside having more room to breath development time wise as your hands are not as full with others stuff to do.
Peoples are excited for third parties because for lots of them, we see them as "HOLY **** ITS ****ING HAPPENING LETS ****ING GO!" moments, like Cloud, Joker or Banjo.

Sure, Cloud came back in Ultimate. Sure Joker and Banjo could come back next game. But as it stand right now, them being DLC might have been WHAT made it possible for them to get in the game and discuss with Atlus/Microsoft.

First Parties characters? They don't have that wow effect. They're not as attractive, because YOU KNOW that they could have been added in the base game. Or in the next game in the base roster. They're Nintendo Properties, they're character we do expect from Smash concept itself, and it feels like you're just getting something you should of have gotten or could have gotten later.

That's my take on it. And I love Byleth or think the ARMS character will be cool. But thinking that we could get more first parties in the pass is generally a downside with how amazing the first pass was.

I understand why people feel that way and don't hold anything against them for it.

It just's bittersweet. That's all.

 

[Nanami77]

"Dormant."

Dude, its three years old. It was financial and critical success. It has a dedicated community.

I'm sorry its not Fifa with a new release every year, and heaven forbid, its not the topic of conversation every darn day of the year, but ARMS doesn't need a revival.

It succeeded. It's not dead. The support didn't get cut off due to disappointing sales numbers or anything. They just got done with the game, and heck Spring Tron was thrown in as a bonus due to good sales. And I have the source to prove it.

"Desperate attempt to revive it," my ass.

Yeah, for about a month before it completely flamed out. I have been in the gaming community for a while now, and within the past few years since its release, I almost never heard anyone even mention the game outside of the Smash forums until the Direct a few months back.

 

[3BitSaurus]

They're not as attractive, because YOU KNOW that they could have been added in the base game. Or in the next game in the base roster.

But then... why weren't they?

I see a lot of people argue this, but yet, the way I see it, quite a few first parties are in a situation where they need people to scream into the void for years or else they don't make it in. Anyone could have told you that K. Rool was popular prior to his inclusion, yet for some reason Nintendo mostly ignored that popularity until the Ballot happened.

Compared to that, I have no doubt in my mind that characters like Sora, Travis Touchdown and Dante will make it in eventually - even if not in Ultimate - because they're either genre-defining, massively popular third parties or have strong connections with Nintendo, putting them into a good position for being negotiated.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Yeah, for about a month before it completely flamed out. I have been in the gaming community for a while now, and within the past few years since its release, I almost never heard anyone even mention the game outside of the Smash forums until the Direct a few months back.

That's not a great metric to define success.

Look there's an ARMS discord that's always active and a reddit that posts all the time. I'm able to find matches in Party Crash pretty darn easily...

If it were truly flamed out it'd be like my other Nintendo fighting game love...

Sweet Prince... they didn't love you like I do....

 

[The_Naraotor]

At this point I wish Super Smash Bros Ultimate/Special become a f2p software and they keep on adding character and mods. Frankly they will never beat the success of that game ever.

 

[Guynamednelson]

"Dormant."

Dude, its three years old. It was financial and critical success. It has a dedicated community.

I'm sorry its not Fifa with a new release every year, and heaven forbid, its not the topic of conversation every darn day of the year, but ARMS doesn't need a revival.

It succeeded. It's not dead. The support didn't get cut off due to disappointing sales numbers or anything. They just got done with the game, and heck Spring Tron was thrown in as a bonus due to good sales. And I have the source to prove it.

"Desperate attempt to revive it," my ass.

That is Nessdeltarune's new account, this is to be expected.

 

[RileyXY1]

At this point I wish Super Smash Bros Ultimate/Special become a f2p software and they keep on adding character and mods. Frankly they will never beat the success of that game ever.

I don't think that they would do that.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

That is Nessdeltarune's new account, this is to be expected.

This is relevant why?

I'm arguing a point, not throwing shade.

 

[Guynamednelson]

This is relevant why?

I'm arguing a point, not throwing shade.

He really, really loved ****ting on the concept of wanting more first-parties/Geno.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

He really, really loved ****ting on the concept of wanting more first-parties/Geno.

Okay?

He's free to feel that way. I'm not saying he can't.

I'm just arguing that ARMS isn't close to a failure.

 

[Perkilator]

What the heck is her logo?

That's the logo for the ARMS tournament, a recurring logo in the game.

 

[RileyXY1]

Now people are freaking out about having more first parties. What has this fanbase come to?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Now people are freaking out about having more first parties. What has this fanbase come to?

I mean, if you REALLY want to see...

I can bring up Fire Emblem again.

 

[RileyXY1]

I mean, if you REALLY want to see...

I can bring up Fire Emblem again.

It's not just Fire Emblem. People are freaking about Pokemon now too.

 

[SneakyLink]

Now people are freaking out about having more first parties. What has this fanbase come to?

I blame the word “hype” on this one.

 

[Perkilator]

It's kind of depressing wanting a lot of first parties.

Yeah my most wanted are Phoenix Wright and Lloyd but...

I want a lot of first parties too. To hear people say they'd be downright disappointing kinda hurts.

I can't blame anyone, you like what you like but...

I guess, people's wants are just changing.



I know I'm not alone in wanting first parties, one look at the poll shows there's still a lot of demand. But still, if a character I thought was hype like ARMS got a meh from everyone... I guess a lot of my most wanted aren't as wanted as I thought.

I know how you feel, man.

 

[RileyXY1]

I blame the word “hype” on this one.

Yeah. Some people were spoiled by the first pass.

 

[Nanami77]

He really, really loved ****ting on the concept of wanting more first-parties/Geno.

I apologized to the entire Geno thread about my previous elitism dude.

But that isn’t going to stop me from hoping for more third parties though.

 

[Dinoman96]

I think it's just because there's not really a big amount of big exciting first party characters left. K. Rool and Ridley were kinda the last of the old guard.

While they do have their fans, the likes of Dixie, Bandana Dee, Rex, Krystal, Ashley, even Waluigi, etc don't really draw a crowd in the same way.

 

[zeldasmash]

I mean, if you REALLY want to see...

I can bring up Fire Emblem again.

For the sanity of this thread and everyone in it, don't.

 

[Trevenant]

What's interesting is about the idea of a first-party majority pass with infrequent third parties is there's more money to go to individual licensing fees. Looking back to last pass, we only had one character who hailed from a massive franchise and likely took boatload of money to license: Hero. Joker, Banjo, and Terry were presumably much less expensive to license than (most) past third parties, which was likely how Sakurai and Nintendo balanced the books on having a majority of the characters be guests. You couldn't have the pass be, say, Crash, Hero, Master Chief, and Heihachi, that's too many big fish financially. You need to either reduce the number of third party fighters or focus on third parties that cost less.

If we're only getting two to three third parties this time around and the budget for both passes is the same, the amount of money that can be spent on each license has likely gone up dramatically. So, even though we'll be seeing less third parties, I think the ones we will be seeing will be massive characters that make the fanbase go "They got HIM for Smash!?".

Tbh I have actually seen people predict 4 or 5 major third parties in the pass previously. Stuff like Master Chief, Dante, Crash and other megaton names when at most precedent suggests 2 max. Apparently, it started from some fan theory that this is a 'drunken online shopping bout' or something along those lines. I have to admit, it's kind of irrational to expect that many. We may get a major third party but no way will it mainly comprise of them. It may even mainly comprise of third parties but most of them. Would probably be similar to Terry where they are lesser known than your Hero's or Cloud's but definitely not stuff like Chief, Crash, Dante, Heihachi etc at the same time.

 

[Aetheri]

I think people don't realize WHY Arms is 'irrelevant'.

One, post launch development is finished. The devs stopped supporting the game, likely because they are moving onto either a sequel (which is warranted given the game was a success) or some other projects.

Two, there's this other certain established fighting game that people have been asking for since the Switch's launch that also sold like crazy, so much so that its the highest selling game of its genre. After Smash was announced nothing else really mattered, and since support was done for Arms, the most you heard of the title was, well Smash related...then Spring man was revealed as an Assist Trophy, which all but killed discussion for the game.

 

[RileyXY1]

I think it's just because there's not really a big amount of big exciting first party characters left. K. Rool and Ridley were kinda the last of the old guard.

While they do have their fans, the likes of Dixie, Bandana Dee, Rex, Krystal, Ashley, even Waluigi, etc don't really draw a crowd in the same way.

And it's likely that Nintendo would load the pass with a bunch of shillpicks.

 

[SKX31]

I don't think ARMS classifies as a shill pick.

It's three years old now. It's sales peak is looooong gone.

I could see it being something of a promo pick. Then again, my viewpoint is being somewhat influenced by the "free to play" week ARMS 1 got when the announcement was first made, the ARMS North American Online Open (the first officially sponsored ARMS tournament since the ARMS Japan Grand Prix was seemingly cancelled in 2019):

While it was never officially confirmed, the tournament was likely held to tie-in with the announcement that an ARMS Character would be coming to Super Smash Bros. Ultimate in June along with ARMS being free to play for 10 days via Nintendo Switch Online.

And that the last patch was September 2018, to add NSO support. EDIT: I'm mentioning the last patch since whether ARMS 2 is real or not, Nintendo have shown a willingness to continue and promote the franchise.

"Dormant."

Dude, its three years old. It was financial and critical success. It has a dedicated community.

I'm sorry its not Fifa with a new release every year, and heaven forbid, its not the topic of conversation every darn day of the year, but ARMS doesn't need a revival.

It succeeded. It's not dead. The support didn't get cut off due to disappointing sales numbers or anything. They just got done with the game, and heck Spring Tron was thrown in as a bonus due to good sales. And I have the source to prove it.

"Desperate attempt to revive it," my ass.

While it's not dead, I'd argue that ARMS did lose enough of the playerbase for Nintendo to say "Yes, it sold well, but it could use another push or even an attempt to revive interest in it". They have had a decent string of officially sponsored tournaments from 2017 to 2019, it's just that ARMS didn't reach the heights that other fighters did in say EVO Japan 2018.

Again, there is still a competitive player base (and a player base centered around the Party Crashes), but it might have dwindled just enough for Nintendo to justify a semi-promotional push.

For the sanity of this thread and everyone in it, don't.

I've already gone insane from all the FE talk:

 

[Nanami77]

Now people are freaking out about having more first parties. What has this fanbase come to?

And it's likely that Nintendo would load the pass with a bunch of shillpicks.

You literally just answered your own question within the past 15 minutes.

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

I think when it comes to the "first-party is for base game" mentality, people don't seem to mention that Simon/Richter and Ken were added in the base game as well. If we were to take that criteria at full value, I'd wonder if those characters getting in so soon was a bad idea and they should have been saved for DLC. But that obviously didn't happen. And especially considering they were three out of only a select number of newcomers that got into Ultimate's base game, the hypothetical process would throw first-party newcomers into an unfair disadvantage.

 

[Guynamednelson]

don't really draw a crowd in the same way.

As someone who wants Terry, it really does feel like people are inflating his popularity just because he's not a filthy Nintendo character. I in fact was very concerned about whether or not he'd make it in this early because I knew he didn't have as big of a fanbase as Waluigi, both in and outside the context of Smash.

And yes I do know about SNK's fanbase in places like Mexico. I'm still not going to think he has twenty million times more fans than certain Nintendo characters that still aren't playable.

 

[MooMew64]

I'd honestly take a pass of all first party over a majority of the popular 3rd party picks. I honestly get exasperated every time this "No, only 3rd parties!" topic comes up because it's not super fun to have dozens of people constantly inform you of how "boring" your want is. Don't even get me started about how people react when you say you want Waluigi.

That's just me. Guess I know how Spring Man fans feel now.

 

[Nekoo]

It's like people skipped the whole point that for some third parties, getting in as DLC might be the only way for Nintendo to get the greenlight of the main company. Not that first parties are bad.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

all first partys would be boring to me. I want hype that Joker gave me not "oh, its another Zelda character" (probably a bad exanple but you get my point)

Also is Layton first party or no? or is he third

 

[Nekoo]

all first partys would be boring ti me. I want hype that Joker gave me now "oh, its another Zelda character"

Also is Layton first party or no? ornis he third

Third party published by nintendo in some regions.

 

[Aetheri]

It's like people forgot were DLC in the last game as well.


What's a bigger contrast than a hot new third party fighter? How about a first party veteran a lot of people have already played before (two of them being clones mind you). With that said it honestly doesn't matter much if the character's first party or third party, fact of the matter is whether the character is one that Sakurai's interested in developing at the end or after Smash's development. Third party's are probably more appealing for DLC with the simple fact that the third party company's more likely to be on board because of the extra money they'd make from them being paid DLC.

all first partys would be boring ti me. I want hype that Joker gave me now "oh, its another Zelda character"

Also is Layton first party or no? ornis he third

You say Zelda character like we've been getting one every game.

Also Layton is definitely third party being owned by Level-5.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Obviously people seem to know who my wants are, so this post may come off as a little bit biased. However, I'm not trying to take digs at anybody here.

Remember yesterday when we got that SourceGaming poll, and the massive amount of 3rd parties in the Top 50-100 compared to First parties? I feel like that was slightly shrugged off. Obviously, a poll such as that doesn't tell us who is in the game. Popularity is only one aspect of how characters are chosen. There are very few characters who got in purely because of popularity. However, poll results like that don't exist in a vacuum. The wants exist before and after the poll...they build up over time.

When I see things like Dante in the position of #5, I think back to many of the times this thread thought he was a meme pick, as if Devil May Cry isn't a popular series that shook up the genre. As if Dante's personality isn't what makes him a likable, iconic character. There were actually people who were "surprised" at him placing so high.

2B, another character people have shrugged off, placed at #17. Considering she's a character who has never appeared on a Nintendo console prior, that's a pretty substantial placing. Yet, to some here she's a nobody.

Here's my point- The Smash fanbase has this perspective that, overall, "long awaited" Smash picks like Isaac or Bandanna Waddle Dee would be these massive picks for fans of any background. That's fine as a personal preference, as I myself would really love to see Isaac. The thing of it is though, a good portion of "Major" fan-made first party picks are either side characters in their respective series or a lead character from a series that hasn't had a new title in some time. Waluigi is Waluigi though, you're not going to find many characters more iconic or known than a Mario character. That said, I don't know that simply existing as a Mario character means more people want you as a pick than anyone else.

Some of these first party picks might make waves in the direct Smash community, but beyond that? Certain 3rd parties would most likely overshadow them. This doesn't mean 1st parties are objectively bad, just that the overall interest has shifted.

I think folks are taking people's preference that they want more "new" series and characters to cross over and bring "new" content as this "insult" to first parties, when that's a pretty typical mentality nowadays. It's only natural that after we've had a massive roster that hits most of the "major" series and characters, and the crossover spreads to series that folks wouldn't have expected, or dreamed decades about (Person, Dragon Quest and Banjo, for some examples) people have new dreams and aspirations of what that roster could look like. There's really nothing wrong with that.

 

[RileyXY1]

It's like people forgot were DLC in the last game as well.


What's a bigger contrast than a hot new third party fighter? How about a first party veteran a lot of people have already played before (two of them being clones mind you). With that said it honestly doesn't matter much if the character's first party or third party, fact of the matter is whether the character is one that Sakurai's interested in developing at the end or after Smash's development. Third party's are probably more appealing for DLC with the simple fact that the third party company's more likely to be on board because of the extra money they'd make from them being paid DLC.


You say Zelda character like we've been getting one every game.

Also Layton is definitely third party being owned by Level-5.

All 3 of them were already playable which is a different case.