Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

You say Zelda character like we've been getting one every game

yeah, thats why I edited it saying it was a bad example pf. I couldnt think of another example

 

[Cosmic77]

Just support who you want and share your excitement with the few people who hold the same kind of love you have for that certain character you've been wanting in Smash.

This especially applies to you if there are a lot of first-parties you want in Smash. There's no point torturing yourself in this thread if all you hear is, "ngl they'd really drop the ball on this pass if that's who they added," every time you bring up a first-party you want. It can get to you after a while.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I wanna bring this up as well: Terry and anyone from ARMS getting in before the likes of the AAA third-parties we keep hoping for/predicting is a good example of Japan being more pro-cult following and less go-biiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiig-or-go-home than our Western culture is. While supporters of Sakura from Sakura Wars or Sol Badguy seem to be acknowledging it, it's also an example of why they wouldn't solely go for third-party hype.

 

[MarioDDR755]

It's like people forgot were DLC in the last game as well.

Aha, it's funny, back then people were obsessed with wanting old, cut fighters to return. Lucas was so heavily requested even though he played so much like Ness already. Hence, Ultimate brought everyone back because people really don't like cuts...

But yes, opening the third party floodgates was always going to be a divisive decision, since of course adding non-Nintendo legends is going to be more interesting and exciting to a larger number of people. But it is worth it to remember that it's not all about adding iconic, legendary characters, but that for many people, Smash was always about celebrating Nintendo characters, both the popular ones, and the ones that maybe didn't get enough attention on their own, and being in Smash will kind of put that limelight on them and give them a chance to really shine.

 

[MooMew64]

For the record, there are 3rd party wants I want too. I'm just a big Nintendo nerd that loves seeing more of their characters.

There is nothing wrong with wanting both.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

I wanna bring this up as well: Terry and anyone from ARMS getting in before the likes of the AAA third-parties we keep hoping for/predicting is a good example of Japan being more pro-cult following and less go-biiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiig-or-go-home than our Western culture is. While supporters of Sakura from Sakura Wars or Sol Badguy seem to be acknowledging it, it's also an example of why they wouldn't solely go for third-party hype.

We don't know Nintendo's reasoning.

 

[skylanders fan]

Tbh honest I got the big 5 I wanted in Ultimate so as much as I would like Crash and Springman in I’m happy with what we have

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Just one more day and one of the most speculative periods in Smash history comes to a close.

 

[Cosmic77]

We're exactly 24 hours away from the character reveal.

We're in the homestretch.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

We're finally down to 24 hours guys.

 

[Pokelego999]

As long as I get the Dee I'm satisfied. Anything else from my want list would be icing on the cake.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

And only 24 more hours until we know if Spirits/Assists don't deconfirm.

 

[CosmicQuark]

While some may freak out about first party DLC, I think it’s more “I don’t care.” First party isn’t as exciting, particularly for those outside of the bubble. It’s why Sakurai’s comments about Byleth leading up to his reveal felt bizarre—really, you kept a Nintendo owned property secret... from Nintendo employees? And they’d be surprised that a Nintendo character came in? (Obviously, he was likely referring to the timing, but to those not in the know, general people don’t know how long a character takes to make, which is why everyone assumed an ARMS rep would be in the base game).

There’s not a whole lot of characters left that I’m excited for, and a lot of them would be first party characters like Dixie Kong and Bandana Waddle Dee (the latter really only to make the fans happy).

Yet, I wouldn’t be excited for either as they wouldn’t bring enough new to the table to warrant being a $5 DLC character. Those who are best for DLC are those bringing something fresh, whether it be moves, aesthetics, worlds, etc. Whereas first parties, and more specifically first parties already in the game, feel like base game material precisely because they wouldn’t be bringing enough new stuff to warrant the DLC price model.

Would I be outraged at a mostly first party pass? Of course not, that’s silly. But I’d be lying to say I wouldn’t disappointed, as it feels like a major missed opportunity.

 

[Ura]

I mean my preference is usually third party characters but I still want Andy before anything else. So the idea of a 1st party dominated pass is pretty appealing to me even if he's not a shoe-in.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Obviously people seem to know who my wants are, so this post may come off as a little bit biased. However, I'm not trying to take digs at anybody here.

Remember yesterday when we got that SourceGaming poll, and the massive amount of 3rd parties in the Top 50-100 compared to First parties? I feel like that was slightly shrugged off. Obviously, a poll such as that doesn't tell us who is in the game. Popularity is only one aspect of how characters are chosen. There are very few characters who got in purely because of popularity. However, poll results like that don't exist in a vacuum. The wants exist before and after the poll...they build up over time.

When I see things like Dante in the position of #5, I think back to many of the times this thread thought he was a meme pick, as if Devil May Cry isn't a popular series that shook up the genre. As if Dante's personality isn't what makes him a likable, iconic character. There were actually people who were "surprised" at him placing so high.

2B, another character people have shrugged off, placed at #17. Considering she's a character who has never appeared on a Nintendo console prior, that's a pretty substantial placing. Yet, to some here she's a nobody.

Here's my point- The Smash fanbase has this perspective that, overall, "long awaited" Smash picks like Isaac or Bandanna Waddle Dee would be these massive picks for fans of any background. That's fine as a personal preference, as I myself would really love to see Isaac. The thing of it is though, a good portion of "Major" fan-made first party picks are either side characters in their respective series or a lead character from a series that hasn't had a new title in some time. Waluigi is Waluigi though, you're not going to find many characters more iconic or known than a Mario character. That said, I don't know that simply existing as a Mario character means more people want you as a pick than anyone else.

Some of these first party picks might make waves in the direct Smash community, but beyond that? Certain 3rd parties would most likely overshadow them. This doesn't mean 1st parties are objectively bad, just that the overall interest has shifted.

I think folks are taking people preference that they want more "new" series and characters to cross over and bring "new" content as this insult to first parties, when that's a pretty typical mentality nowadays. It's only natural that after we've had a massive roster that hits most of the "major" series and characters, and the crossover spreads to series that folks wouldn't have expected, or dreamed decades about (Person, Dragon Quest and Banjo, for some examples) people have new dreams and aspirations of what that roster could look like. There's really nothing wrong with that.

True - third parties were in the majority in the poll... but to me, the sheer fact that there were four first parties among the top 20-25, all of which got a solid amount of votes, should pretty much invalidate the notion that "they're only popular in a vacuum", or "they wouldn't sell enough for Nintendo to make a profit". I feel like that's something that was glossed over.

Heck, BWD in the top 10 surprised even me. It shows that these "side characters" or "dead franchises" might have sizable enough fandoms to sell a DLC pack. People have this idea that DLC needs to appeal to the biggest audience possible (and I know this isn't what you're saying, but it's a sentiment I've seen in this thread for a while), when that's not necessarily the case.

 

[The_Naraotor]

I think from Joker to Terry Nintendo build too much hype that now people wants only 3rd parties characters.

 

[Schnee117]

I think folks are taking people preference that they want more "new" series and characters to cross over and bring "new" content as this insult to first parties,

Honestly this just feels like certain people want to actively create a conflict just for the hell of it.

 

[Flik]

First party, third party, after party... it doesn't matter where the character is from if it's either someone I like or at least look cool to me. There are plenty of character like that on both sides (also plenty I don't like but that's how life is).

For them to have told us it was "an ARMS fighter" this whole time, with all the mystery of which one, having the trailer like that would be fitting! And then, as with Chrom in Robin and Lucina's trailer, they have Spring Man losing be kind of dramatic... only for Min Min or someone else to be the one who beats Little Mac or whoever.

I could see Spring Man getting the Smash invite only to like on the game cover to be punched in the face with the actual character getting in taking it from him.

That's a pretty good way to make me dislike the character right off the bat. The last thing I want is to dislike the first character on the Fighter Pass.

 

[GalacticPetey]

For me personally the fact that a character is first or third party makes little difference to me and it's more about the individual character. When I see people say they completely prefer one to the other I roll my eyes a bit. I'd be excited by Impa and Isaac but I really wouldn't be into Urshifu or Krystal. Likewise I'd be super excited for Doomguy or Crash but wouldn't care much for Nathan Drake or Shovel Knight. I don't support characters on the basis for them being first or third party. I support them because I like the character and think they would be fun in the game.

Granted this is me speaking as a huge Smash fan. For the casual consumer of course massive third parties are going to be exciting. I just think liking or disliking a character simply because of who owns them is silly.

 

[Guynamednelson]

People have this idea that DLC needs to appeal to the biggest audience possible (and I know this isn't what you're saying, but it's a sentiment I've seen in this thread for a while), when that's not necessarily the case.

We should've had enough proof that this isn't the case after pretty much every FP1 character. Even if all of FP2 consists of characters whose games have never gotten past 5 million units sold, I predict someone thinking that CP11 absolutely, positively, undeniably HAS to be Jonesy.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I'm not sure that 3rd parties are always necessarily to get the "biggest audience". Obviously FP1 didn't do that.

It did however reach new audiences with at least 3 of the 5 picks.

 

[zeldasmash]

Obviously people seem to know who my wants are, so this post may come off as a little bit biased. However, I'm not trying to take digs at anybody here.

Remember yesterday when we got that SourceGaming poll, and the massive amount of 3rd parties in the Top 50-100 compared to First parties? I feel like that was slightly shrugged off. Obviously, a poll such as that doesn't tell us who is in the game. Popularity is only one aspect of how characters are chosen. There are very few characters who got in purely because of popularity. However, poll results like that don't exist in a vacuum. The wants exist before and after the poll...they build up over time.

When I see things like Dante in the position of #5, I think back to many of the times this thread thought he was a meme pick, as if Devil May Cry isn't a popular series that shook up the genre. As if Dante's personality isn't what makes him a likable, iconic character. There were actually people who were "surprised" at him placing so high.

2B, another character people have shrugged off, placed at #17. Considering she's a character who has never appeared on a Nintendo console prior, that's a pretty substantial placing. Yet, to some here she's a nobody.

Here's my point- The Smash fanbase has this perspective that, overall, "long awaited" Smash picks like Isaac or Bandanna Waddle Dee would be these massive picks for fans of any background. That's fine as a personal preference, as I myself would really love to see Isaac. The thing of it is though, a good portion of "Major" fan-made first party picks are either side characters in their respective series or a lead character from a series that hasn't had a new title in some time. Waluigi is Waluigi though, you're not going to find many characters more iconic or known than a Mario character. That said, I don't know that simply existing as a Mario character means more people want you as a pick than anyone else.

Some of these first party picks might make waves in the direct Smash community, but beyond that? Certain 3rd parties would most likely overshadow them. This doesn't mean 1st parties are objectively bad, just that the overall interest has shifted.

I think folks are taking people preference that they want more "new" series and characters to cross over and bring "new" content as this insult to first parties, when that's a pretty typical mentality nowadays. It's only natural that after we've had a massive roster that hits most of the "major" series and characters, and the crossover spreads to series that folks wouldn't have expected, or dreamed decades about (Person, Dragon Quest and Banjo, for some examples) people have new dreams and aspirations of what that roster could look like. There's really nothing wrong with that.

I never even knew people saw Dante as a meme pick. Ever since the release of DMC5 and Joker's reveal, I always thought Dante would be a great addition because he has so many things in his favor: Recognizable character from a well established, well received and important franchise, likable personality and character, awesome fighting style that opens up for many possibilities for a moveset, recently had a title that is being hailed as one of the best games of the decade with Devil May Cry 5 and even met the quota that Hideki Kamiya had by having a game on the Switch (DMC1, DMC2 and DMC3 with DMC4 being only a matter of time) so that he saw him as a possibility.

The only reason I can think of why he's a meme pick is because of Byleth's reveal due to how many people (including myself) thought he was going to be Fighter #5 with so many things leading to him being the possible character at the time and how many people would have preferred Dante over Byleth.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

True - third parties were in the majority in the poll... but to me, the sheer fact that there were four first parties among the top 20-25, all of which got a solid amount of votes, should pretty much invalidate the notion that "they're only popular in a vacuum", or "they wouldn't sell enough for Nintendo to make a profit". I feel like that's something that was glossed over.

And if you want super rock solid evidence for this, there were only about 5-7 characters that left the top 50. That's a heck of a lot of consistency there.

 

[M@R!3]

For me personally the fact that a character is first or third party makes little difference to me and it's more about the individual character. When I see people say they completely prefer one to the other I roll my eyes a bit. I'd be excited by Impa and Isaac but I really wouldn't be into Urshifu or Krystal. Likewise I'd be super excited for Doomguy or Crash but wouldn't care much for Nathan Drake or Shovel Knight. I don't support characters on the basis for them being first or third party. I support them because I like the character and think they would be fun in the game.

Granted this is me speaking as a huge Smash fan. For the casual consumer of course massive third parties are going to be exciting. I just think liking or disliking a character simply because of who owns them is silly.

This is basically my position. The primary difference is Nintendo added the last of my most wanted first party characters in base with Ridley and Dark Samus. So when I hear that the second pass could be focusing primarily on first parties it takes the wind out of my sails a bit.

In the hypothetical scenario of an entirely first party pass, I would only be purchasing it should the people I play with take up some of those characters, but that's somewhat unlikely given my friends preferences. Right now Nintendo still has five shots to pull myself or my friends in.

 

[SpectreJordan]

What's interesting is about the idea of a first-party majority pass with infrequent third parties is there's more money to go to individual licensing fees. Looking back to last pass, we only had one character who hailed from a massive franchise and likely took boatload of money to license: Hero. Joker, Banjo, and Terry were presumably much less expensive to license than (most) past third parties, which was likely how Sakurai and Nintendo balanced the books on having a majority of the characters be guests. You couldn't have the pass be, say, Crash, Hero, Master Chief, and Heihachi, that's too many big fish financially. You need to either reduce the number of third party fighters or focus on third parties that cost less.

If we're only getting two to three third parties this time around and the budget for both passes is the same, the amount of money that can be spent on each license has likely gone up dramatically. So, even though we'll be seeing less third parties, I think the ones we will be seeing will be massive characters that make the fanbase go "They got HIM for Smash!?".

This makes sense to me. Honestly, I’d prefer that. Mainly because a few of my most wanted are BIG BOY 3rd parties so I’d take a Rex or Cinderace for Chief & Crash.

I think it's just because there's not really a big amount of big exciting first party characters left. K. Rool and Ridley were kinda the last of the old guard.

While they do have their fans, the likes of Dixie, Bandana Dee, Rex, Krystal, Ashley, even Waluigi, etc don't really draw a crowd in the same way.

I think it’s mainly because Smash has all the big heroes, villains & side kicks now. The Nintendo characters left are either from much smaller series or they’re additional side kicks that don’t get as much screen time as a Luigi, Dedede or Diddy.

Obviously, BanDee has his fanbase but it won’t as excite as many people as Dedede or Meta Knight did.

 

[Nanami77]

Just one more day and one of the most speculative periods in Smash history comes to a close.

You mean one of the most boring and unexciting periods in Smash history? It got to the point where, until very recently, I stopped going to the Smash forums entirely because of how bad it was.

 

[Will]

You mean one of the most boring and unexciting periods in Smash history?

Nah, the most boring period was post-Bayo Smash 4. Even if nothing's out I could at least still have fun playing Ultimate.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

You mean one of the most boring and unexciting periods in Smash history? It got to the point where, until very recently, I stopped going to the Smash forums entirely because of how bad it was.

So what made you come back?

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

You mean one of the most boring and unexciting periods in Smash history? It got to the point where, until very recently, I stopped going to the Smash forums entirely because of how bad it was.

To each their own, but I found the post Byleth pre-ARMS period to be worse. The former left me pretty cynical about the choice in fighters and the general drought of information from Nintendo (with little excuse given it was prior to the pandemic hitting full swing) had me expecting a much more conventional choice for Fighter 6.

The decision to go with ARMS may have hyper focused discussion on specific elements, but its felt like one more interesting (and more optimistic for me) than those that came before it.

 

[MooMew64]

Nah, the most boring period was post-Bayo Smash 4. Even if nothing's out I could at least still have fun playing Ultimate.

Guess I wasn't the only one who didn't like Smash 4 much, lol.

TBH this is hardly a bad period for speculation: I'd say Box Theory days and Grinch Leak were 10x worse.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Guess I wasn't the only one who didn't like Smash 4 much, lol.

TBH this is hardly a bad period for speculation: I'd say Box Theory days and Grinch Leak were 10x worse.

Ok but the Brave days. 6 months of the obvious. At least the trailer was sick.

 

[MooMew64]

Ok but the Brave days. 6 months of the obvious. At least the trailer was sick.

Eeehhhh yeah that was a little rough I guess. Still wouldn't personally put it anywhere near the box days, lol.

 

[Cosmic77]

For me, the worst periods of speculation are whenever we have zero leads and we're completely in the dark. No rumors, no leaks, no DLC character to look forward to — nothing but a bunch of random discussions.

I actually disliked the small gap between Terry/Byleth and Byleth/ARMS announcement more than what's going on right now. I mean, I'm sure it's not as great for you if you aren't intrested in ARMS, but there's nothing stopping you from talking about F7 onward. Might as well enjoy the luxury of knowing what to expect, because after tomorrow, it's just waiting.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I'm planning on doing a bit of a debrief tomorrow after the Direct is over. Considering recent tweets from insiders, I'm getting the feeling that Min Min COULD (not will or 100% does, but COULD) have the edge over Spring Man.

This suggests a few things. Spring Man is the cover mascot with Ribbon Girl for ARMS, and was not the first playable character for the series. This makes ARMS the VERY FIRST series to buck that trend after roughly 30 series got their mascot/protagonist as the inaugural pick. Certainly, this would show that this trend isn't 100%, but still quite reliable. Will this indicate other "non-mascot/protagonist" picks down the line? With 5 characters of unknown origin at this point, it's hard to say. If you ask me, if Min Min is the pick this appears to be more of an exception as of now rather than a new normal with 5 picks left and plenty of time to go.

Of course, this is assuming that it's not some weird Monkey's Paw that we get the "New mascot" of ARMS in Min-Min, but that seems like a, no-pun intended, stretch.

It's notable to point out that Min-Min being upgraded is not necessarily the same type of "upgrade" as Spring Man would be. They're both NPCs in Smash Ultimate as of right now, but they're still two very different forms of NPCs. While the fanbase overall may see a Min-Min addition as a ticket for Assist Trophy picks, I'm not so sure it would. But again, I think each pick would be a case by case basis as I think we've steadily come together to realize, which is good!

But that's a bigger discussion for tomorrow afternoon most likely. We'll have to pick it up from there.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

While the fanbase overall may see a Min-Min addition as a ticket for Assist Trophy picks, I'm not so sure it would.

They do or was this a typo?

If anything, Min Min would just reiterate that Assist Trophies disconfirm since they went out of their way to not include Spring Man.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

So have I missed anything recently?

 

[Gentlepanda]

So have I missed anything recently?

yo there's an arms character coming to smash

 

[SharkLord]

Last night, I dreamt the ARMS rep was actually Mechanica, but older, different outfit, and actual ARMS instead of the mech suit. It would presumably be for an upcoming ARMS 2, but I don't remember enough of the dream to say.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

So have I missed anything recently?

Zhugeex, industry insider, made a Twitter poll for ARMS characters containing Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Min Min, and Twintelle. This was shortly after Min Min was trending on Twitter.

He included, "The winner of this poll will be revealed on Monday".

Assuming he knows who the fighter is, and potential history with his sense of humor, it could be a hint. It's nothing truly conclusive, but it's suggestive. Min-Min is winning, btw.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

They do or was this a typo?

If anything, Min Min would just reiterate that Assist Trophies disconfirm since they went out of their way to not include Spring Man.

It would probably also definitively deconfirm Mii Costumes that don’t have their playable equivalent already there beforehand. Case in point, Ribbon Girl (and by extension, Rex, Sans, Cuphead etc)