Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Guynamednelson]

The infamous Wild Area Tree is the legendary spirit.

Young Link is used as its stand-in due to comparisons to OoT's graphics.

 

[Will]

*One third.

...I'll see myself out.

give it another corporate shill

....At least the Gen 8 Stage will look better than Gen 8 does.

this man shooting shots that you can't even deny

 

[CosmicQuark]

When it comes to ZhugeEx’s twitter poll, I think it’s very likely he knows, and if he knows Min Min would be the popular pick, then this would be a very good hint for the character. While both have to be true, I think it’s clear that most insiders have known who it is for a while so I don’t doubt the first requirement.

That being said I’m still going with Spring Man as that’s who I’ve thought it’s been for a while now, and don’t want last minute hints to change my mind—and given he’s the character I’d prefer, this gives me another good opportunity take a critical look at my reasonings and prepare to take the L on Monday.

As for Imran, I think that given how far we are out from the completion of the pass, very few people know who any of the other characters are, so I don’t think he would know if it would be a first party majority pass. I think more than likely it’s speculation to get people prepared for the possibility, as most take third parties as a given with Smash 4 and Fighter’s Pass 1’s third party preference.

Personally I’d prefer more third parties, but would at least hope for half and half. I think in addition to ARMS, Xenoblade and Pokémon are likely DLC contenders. Beyond that, it’s hard to see any good first party characters for DLC, as most make sense as base game characters. And I will be fairly disappointed if a good chunk comes from series already in Smash. The novelty is not just working with new companies, it’s also brand new worlds, first or third, coming to Smash. Which is why I’m more accepting of an Arms character than I would be for most other first party series. That being said, I’m content, but concerned if that is the direction they’re heading.

That is... unless they change they’re mind and keep the hype train coming for FP3–never let it end, Nintendo.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

I dont believe any insiders knows the rest of the characters in the pass. Sounds like speculation.

 

[zumaddy]

Personally I can't see it being anyone other than Spring Man, Ribbon Girl (possibly with Spring Man?) or Min Min at this point. Would be interesting to see a wildcard but I doubt it.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Can we not create a fake rivalry between Bandana Dee and other Kirby characters like we did with Rex and Elma please and thank you.

How the hell is Elma and Rex a fake rivalry? X and 2 are both hotly contestes games in their series with Xenoblade fans often arguing about them about stuff like X being too different in setting or 2 being drastically different in tone from 1 and X and a whole lot of other things. Not to mention that both of them are protagonists whereas these other characters Bandana Dee is supposedly rivaling are simply put less frequently appearing characters who don't need crossover stuff to be relevant

EDIT: TLDR, Elma and Rex fans were already fighting outside of the context of Smash

 

[CosmicQuark]

My guess is if it is Min Min, Nintendo did intend to tease the ARMS character like this all along. I can even envision the trailer now. Back in the boxing ring, Little Mac (or Incineroar/Ken) encounters Spring Man and they knock him out, leading to a series of fights with other potential ARMS characters, deconfirming left and right like Terry’s trailer, with Min Min (or whomever it is) coming out on top followed by their splash screen. Would be fairly fitting and tension built.

 

[Rikarte]

The Touhou people clearly committed voter fraud.

Yeah, Reimu scoring this high doesn't have anything to do with ZUN declaring that he'd like to see her in Smash, other popular indies being acknowledged via Mii outfits or some of the biggest names in the Smash community like Alpharad, Light or Samsora voicing their support for her. Nope, it was all rigged!

 

[Thermithral]

If the second pass is primarily first party characters, I will be pretty hyped and happy. If it is primarily third parties I will be less hyped, but still judge the characters individually and try them out.

Honestly I am hopping at least two of them come with echo fighters, if for no other reason then having the final character roster end at 88, and allow for a perfect 8 x 11 grid for the full characters select screen, instead of having the bottom row perminantly break the symmetry..

 

[ZelDan]

I don't really have any interest in a Gen VIII pokemon, or any pokemon for that matter. That said if they made a Galar gym the stage and made fighting in it like battling a gym leader in SwSh, with the audience cheering/chanting (more than the Smash audience), and had the music/chanting change on last stock like how the chanting changes in SwSh when a leader's on their last Pokemon, that could be cool.

Maybe have Gigantimax pokemon in the background creating/changing stage hazards.

 

[Cyberfire]

Joker was the first announced FP1 character to set the tone for the rest of the pack - Reggie said that himself. Exciting and some unexpected third party collaborations, Byleth excluded.

You would then assume that the Arms character is the same deal for FP2. However you have to consider the pandemic this time around.

My opinion, there is 2 options for what is happening with the pack;

1. Arms rep is indeed the ‘tone setter’ - pack is majority first party, focussed on modern era characters
2. Arms was meant to come later in the pass, however the pandemic made the dev team push them up as it is easier to work confidentially internally while working from home.

2 would make sense with the strange way they announced the Arms rep. Character might have been in very early stages of development when they produced the direct, so they had nothing in game to realistically show at the time.

 

[MarioDDR755]

My guess is if it is Min Min, Nintendo did intend to tease the ARMS character like this all along. I can even envision the trailer now. Back in the boxing ring, Little Mac (or Incineroar/Ken) encounters Spring Man and they knock him out, leading to a series of fights with other potential ARMS characters, deconfirming left and right like Terry’s trailer, with Min Min (or whomever it is) coming out on top followed by their splash screen. Would be fairly fitting and tension built.

For them to have told us it was "an ARMS fighter" this whole time, with all the mystery of which one, having the trailer like that would be fitting! And then, as with Chrom in Robin and Lucina's trailer, they have Spring Man losing be kind of dramatic... only for Min Min or someone else to be the one who beats Little Mac or whoever.

 

[PSIGuy]

TLDR, Elma and Rex fans were already fighting outside of the context of Smash

A visual reference for the Xenoblade fanbase.

Mind there's no doubt in my mind that they'd pick Rex. I'll be very surprised if we get a first party who isn't prominent on Switch. It's a big reason why I'm holding off on buying the pass.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Joker was the first announced FP1 character to set the tone for the rest of the pack - Reggie said that himself. Exciting and some unexpected third party collaborations, Byleth excluded.

You would then assume that the Arms character is the same deal for FP2. However you have to consider the pandemic this time around.

My opinion, there is 2 options for what is happening with the pack;

1. Arms rep is indeed the ‘tone setter’ - pack is majority first party, focussed on modern era characters
2. Arms was meant to come later in the pass, however the pandemic made the dev team push them up as it is easier to work confidentially internally while working from home.

2 would make sense with the strange way they announced the Arms rep. Character might have been in very early stages of development when they produced the direct, so they had nothing in game to realistically show at the time.

No way was ARMS shifted early, just like how there's no way Byleth was shifted early, it would suggest that the dev team is awful at priorities, because why the hell would you suddenly shift the order to force the team to work harder on whoever's going to be first now, the characters and stages aren't finished at the same time at put on hold for fun, it's because they prioritize one and then slowly shift to the next the closer the first one is to completion

 

[RawstyleEevee]

How the hell is Elma and Rex a fake rivalry? X and 2 are both hotly contestes games in their series with Xenoblade fans often arguing about them about stuff like X being too different in setting or 2 being drastically different in tone from 1 and X and a whole lot of other things. Not to mention that both of them are protagonists whereas these other characters Bandana Dee is supposedly rivaling are simply put less frequently appearing characters who don't need crossover stuff to be relevant

EDIT: TLDR, Elma and Rex fans were already fighting outside of the context of Smash

More like X fans where fighting with people that preferred the original since X released. X is the game that split up the fanbase the most, because like you said how different it was.

 

[Cyberfire]

No way was ARMS shifted early, just like how there's no way Byleth was shifted early, it would suggest that the dev team is awful at priorities, because why the hell would you suddenly shift the order to force the team to work harder on whoever's going to be first now, the characters and stages aren't finished at the same time at put on hold for fun, it's because they prioritize one and then slowly shift to the next the closer the first one is to completion

I agree that once the contents of the packs are decided there’s no changing it, Byleth was always intended for FP1.

I have some understanding of how games dev can go and how marketing works, I genuinely have friends in game dev and I myself work in a marketing team of a large company (Not game related though). Stuff changes on the fly all the time, it’s not a sign of incompetence, it’s showing adaptability. I’m just saying hypothetically they could have decided to prioritise Arms earlier than intended.

Either way I think the pandemic and maybe even the reaction to Byleth has affected how they have marketed the character (‘letting us’ down gently by saying it’s an Arms character months ahead).

 

[Cutie Gwen]

A visual reference for the Xenoblade fanbase.

Mind there's no doubt in my mind that they'd pick Rex. I'll be very surprised if we get a first party who isn't prominent on Switch. It's a big reason why I'm holding off on buying the pass.

This meme has Shulk only look at Rex, not Elma, which aa you put it, is highly accurate

More like X fans where fighting with people that preferred the original since X released. X is the game that split up the fanbase the most, because like you said how different it was.

Then 2 came out people went "You know X wasn't that bad, closer to the original than 2 is"

I agree that once the contents of the packs are decided there’s no changing it, Byleth was always intended for FP1.

I have some understanding of how games dev can go and how marketing works, I genuinely have friends in game dev and I myself work in a marketing team of a large company (Not game related though). Stuff changes on the fly all the time, it’s not a sign of incompetence, it’s showing adaptability. I’m just saying hypothetically they could have decided to prioritise Arms earlier than intended.

Either way I think the pandemic and maybe even the reaction to Byleth has affected how they have marketed the character (‘letting us’ down gently by saying it’s an Arms character months ahead).

I cannot see the pandemic influencing the order, if anything, it would mean that the team has more reason to focus on what has the most work done, Japan also started getting hit by the pandemic around the time Byleth got announced and reacted quite quickly in comparison to most countries, so I can't see that having changed what was already being worked on

 

[andree123]

Maybe the new Smash character won’t be that exciting, but I am curious where they go from here.

— Imran Khan (@imranzomg) June 21, 2020

Imran seems to think the pass is going to be mostly first party.

Hmm....

I agree, we may be getting two 3rd parties with one being new and the other from Bandai Namco.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Maybe the new Smash character won’t be that exciting, but I am curious where they go from here.

— Imran Khan (@imranzomg) June 21, 2020

Imran seems to think the pass is going to be mostly first party.

Hmm....

If that's the case then this Fighters Pass is going to be very disappointing to me and Sakurai's quote about these characters just being extras when talking about Fighters Pass 2 will set the stone for the rest of the pass. It's sort of like the fear I initially had looking into Pass 1 where Nintendo would only pick characters from the most relevant and highest selling franchises.

I don't find First Party characters very exciting because I feel like we've already got the most important franchises represented. Most of what people suggest like Waluigi, Bandana Dee, Dixie Kong, Impa, etc. just feel like leftovers so I'm more interested in seeing third party characters get in instead. I want to see fan favourite third party characters get in like Phoenix Wright, Dante, Sora, Crash, Doom Guy, characters who break the norms of Nintendo's character designs, characters you'd catch Nintendo dead creating and see how they interact with the rest of the cast. Besides we'll probably never get a chance to have this many third party characters and Nintendo all-stars fight again so I hope Nintendo keeps bringing out character packs until the end of the Switch's lifespan.

 

[CosmicQuark]

For them to have told us it was "an ARMS fighter" this whole time, with all the mystery of which one, having the trailer like that would be fitting! And then, as with Chrom in Robin and Lucina's trailer, they have Spring Man losing be kind of dramatic... only for Min Min or someone else to be the one who beats Little Mac or whoever.

If that’s the case, I suppose Spring Man will get his chance another day.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

If that's the case then this Fighters Pass is going to be very disappointing to me and Sakurai's quote about these characters just being extras when talking about Fighters Pass 2 will set the stone for the rest of the pass. It's sort of like the fear I initially had looking into Pass 1 where Nintendo would only pick characters from the most relevant and high selling franchises.

I don't find First Party characters very exciting because I feel like we've already got the most important franchises represented. Most of what people suggest like Waluigi, Bandana Dee, Dixie Kong, Impa, etc. just feel like leftovers so I'm more interested in seeing third party characters get in instead. I want to see fan favourite third party characters get in like Phoenix Wright, Dante, Sora, Crash, Doom Guy, characters who break the norms of Nintendo's character designs, characters you'd catch Nintendo dead creating and see how they interact with the rest of the cast. Besides we'll probably never get a chance to have this many third party characters and Nintendo all-stars fight again so I hope Nintendo keeps bringing out character packs until the end of the Switch's lifespan.

Not to mention Nintendo hasn't exactly convinced people why first parties would be aa exciting third parties.

Compare any of these


To these


Not only are the third parties generally from bigger franchises and have more mechanics that also help them stand out, but they add content unimaginable, such as a stage that has you bounce off walls like traditional fighters or have jazzy songs to fight on. Future characters could potentially change that up, but as it is now, Nintendo's shown that their DLC characters prioritize "Wowee look new game! Maybe you should buy it!" over longlasting legacies which ultimately made video games what they are today, it's like getting treated to dinner at work, not bad per se, but getting treated to a 3 course meal at a fancy restaurant is certainly going to make you remember it for years to come

 

[zumaddy]

Not to mention Nintendo hasn't exactly convinced people why first parties would be aa exciting third parties.

Compare any of these


To these


Not only are the third parties generally from bigger franchises and have more mechanics that also help them stand out, but they add content unimaginable, such as a stage that has you bounce off walls like traditional fighters or have jazzy songs to fight on. Future characters could potentially change that up, but as it is now, Nintendo's shown that their DLC characters prioritize "Wowee look new game! Maybe you should buy it!" over longlasting legacies which ultimately made video games what they are today, it's like getting treated to dinner at work, not bad per se, but getting treated to a 3 course meal at a fancy restaurant is certainly going to make you remember it for years to come

Corrin and PP didn't come with a stage so that's not a fair comparison, Smash 4's DLC did not have the same inclusions for every fighter that Ultimate has so far. The only 1st party who wasn't a bonus like Pirahna Plant for Smash Ultimate is Byleth, the only one fit to be compared by your criteria.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Corrin and PP didn't come with a stage so that's not a fair comparison, Smash 4's DLC did not have the same inclusions for every fighter that Ultimate has so far. The only 1st party who wasn't a bonus like Pirahna Plant for Smash Ultimate is Byleth.

The other DLC newcomers in Smash 4 all had stages whereas Corrin didn't, I did some rewriting and accidentally removed that from the original post.

Smash 4 had the same stuff as Ultimate other than Spirits due to them not existing, they still brought characters with unique mechanics, stages and music. Again, Corrin is the exception to the stages.

Yes, and how exactly did diehard Nintendo fans respond to Byleth in comparison to just seeing Iori Yagami in Terry's trailer? Nintendo has conditioned people into not wanting first parties by focusing on 'wow new game' over anything else

 

[I.D.]

Nintendo has conditioned people into not wanting first parties by focusing on 'wow new game' over anything else

I can think of a very different reason for that.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

For them to have told us it was "an ARMS fighter" this whole time, with all the mystery of which one, having the trailer like that would be fitting! And then, as with Chrom in Robin and Lucina's trailer, they have Spring Man losing be kind of dramatic... only for Min Min or someone else to be the one who beats Little Mac or whoever.

I could see Spring Man getting the Smash invite only to like on the game cover to be punched in the face with the actual character getting in taking it from him.

 

[Ura]

I mean in fairness RoboCop had been announced a good deal prior to that, right? That may have tempered things.

IIRC, the 3 characters from Aftermath were literally announced the day the first trailer was shown in early-mid May. So it was a few weeks before all the social unrest began.

EDIT: lmao this post that I intended to make yesterday got posted now.

I have to give props for people who still support series like Advanced Wars or Golden Sun, despite both series being dead in the water.


If this IS 1st party focused with some 3rd parties thrown in, I just don't see a world where it's not "Gen 8 Pokemon" and probably Rex.

*laughs in Advance Wars Mobile & Golden Sun 1 & 2 Remastered*

Okay they might be rumors right now but I feel there's enough going for both to wind up real.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

It's kind of depressing wanting a lot of first parties.

Yeah my most wanted are Phoenix Wright and Lloyd but...

I want a lot of first parties too. To hear people say they'd be downright disappointing kinda hurts.

I can't blame anyone, you like what you like but...

I guess, people's wants are just changing.



I know I'm not alone in wanting first parties, one look at the poll shows there's still a lot of demand. But still, if a character I thought was hype like ARMS got a meh from everyone... I guess a lot of my most wanted aren't as wanted as I thought.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

IIRC, the 3 characters from Aftermath were literally announced the day the first trailer was shown in early-mid May. So it was a few weeks before all the social unrest began.

EDIT: lmao this post that I intended to make yesterday got posted now.

*laughs in Advance Wars Mobile & Golden Sun 1 & 2 Remastered*

Okay they might be rumors right now but I feel there's enough going for both to wind up real.

What’s this about Advance Wars Mobile?

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

I could see Spring Man getting the Smash invite only to like on the game cover to be punched in the face with the actual character getting in taking it from him.

I suppose Spring Man will get his chance another day.

 

[Calane]

I could see Spring Man getting the Smash invite only to like on the game cover to be punched in the face with the actual character getting in taking it from him.

What if Spring Man gets the invite, is super stoked about it, but ultimately decides to give it to another ARMS character instead (like Min Min or Ribbon Girl).

I think that'd be a cool idea for a trailer, and a pretty unique one at that.

 

[Ura]

What’s this about Advance Wars Mobile?

It's a rumor that I feel has a good shot of winding up real based on a few things. If it does happen then I think Andy is a plausible pick but I don't want to dive to deep with hypotheticals like this here.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

It's kind of depressing wanting a lot of first parties.

Yeah my most wanted are Phoenix Wright and Lloyd but...

I want a lot of first parties too. To hear people say they'd be downright disappointing kinda hurts.

I can't blame anyone, you like what you like but...

I guess, people's wants are just changing.



I know I'm not alone in wanting first parties, one look at the poll shows there's still a lot of demand. But still, if a character I thought was hype like ARMS got a meh from everyone... I guess my a lot of my most wanted's aren't as wanted as I thought.

Levels of fan demand flunctuates throughout the years. I’m sure if Spring Man was revealed, the Waluigi and Skull Kid supporters would be coming back in full force.

 

[Jerry98]

Ah Big Daddy and The Knight. Another member of culture I see

I'd be a bit disappointed if our Vessel ends up being a deluxe Mii costume. He deserves to be a full character in my opinion!
I wanted Cuphead as a full character too, but I can understand why they made him a Mii costume.

Big Daddy because I love BioShock and last year I also made a moveset for him.

 

[SpectreJordan]

I’d be fine with a mostly first party pass since my three most wanted characters are Isaac, Rex, and Andy.

Ima be real with you chief, only expect Rex. There’s no way we get Isaac or Andy unless we somehow get GS/AW games on Switch which sadly seems unlikely.

If we get more first parties, then I guarantee you they’ll be Switch characters. So far Nintendo DLC for Smash has been: 3 veterans for Smash 4, a character that barely missed Ultimate’s base roster, a 3DS character & 2 Switch characters. There’s a precedent for Nintendo DLC being more promotional in nature.

It makes sense tbh, use the DLC slots to promote recent games. Then save fan requests that aren’t too relevant (Ridley/K Rool or in the future Waluigi/Dixie) for the base roster of the next game to garner interest for said game.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Well, needless to say I don't buy it.

who the hell even is that

 

[Nanami77]

Not to mention Nintendo hasn't exactly convinced people why first parties would be aa exciting third parties.

Compare any of these


To these


Not only are the third parties generally from bigger franchises and have more mechanics that also help them stand out, but they add content unimaginable, such as a stage that has you bounce off walls like traditional fighters or have jazzy songs to fight on. Future characters could potentially change that up, but as it is now, Nintendo's shown that their DLC characters prioritize "Wowee look new game! Maybe you should buy it!" over longlasting legacies which ultimately made video games what they are today, it's like getting treated to dinner at work, not bad per se, but getting treated to a 3 course meal at a fancy restaurant is certainly going to make you remember it for years to come

Its amazing that many fans on Twitter will try and refute this by saying “LOL LOOK AT THE SMASH FANS BEING UPSET AT A NINTENDO FIGHTER IN A NINTENDO GAME”.

If that really was true, then Sakurai shouldn’t have been repeatedly saying that this was a celebration of gaming as a whole amid a tidal wave of hype third parties. Not to mention saying how more DLC gives more opportunity to please fans, only to load the next pass with uninspired shill picks.

 

[SneakyLink]

who the hell even is that

Something from ARMS concept art apparently.

So a character not even in the game.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

only to load the next pass with uninspired shill picks.

I don't think ARMS classifies as a shill pick.

It's three years old now. It's sales peak is looooong gone.

 

[Nanami77]

I don't think ARMS classifies as a shill pick.

It's three years old now. It's sales peak is looooong gone.

I was being hyperbolic, but the whole addition really does come of as a desperate attempt to revive it after years of being dormant.

 

[Opossum]

I don't think ARMS classifies as a shill pick.

It's three years old now. It's sales peak is looooong gone.

Yeah, I don't think many people realize it, but ARMS is as old now as Splatoon was when Inkling was revealed.