Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Cutie Gwen]

The Pokémon Company is a marketing machine. They've mostly been successful at artificially controlling certain Pokémon's popularity so they can become mascots. This kind of thing isn't accidental. Pretty much the only one they tried to make a mascot that didn't stick the landing was Zoroark.

So it's not just possible, but almost guaranteed that they knew Greninja would be popular when designing him, because he was designed to be popular. They can control that kind of thing. Make a cool ninja frog, decide to give him cool abilities to be competitively viable and give him to the main character in the anime, and give Sakurai a few sketches to further increase the appeal. All of this stuff happens simultaneously and well in advance.

The fact of the matter is that marketing decides what's popular much more so than the fans do, as cynical as that sounds. It's just reality.

Tfw Zoroark failed because it wasn't at popular as Lucario due Lucario being in Smash and Zoroark being a ****ing event mon

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Hate to double post, (though, I guess I didn't) but I found it.

This is Sakurai in 2013:


It would appear the truth is somewhere in the middle. They don't just pick a Pokemon based on unique abilities. They do consult the Pokemon company on anime and other materials.

So Every new Pokémon character going forward is going to be the hot new starter confirmed? Bummer.

 

[Digital Hazard]

So Every new Pokémon character going forward is going to be the hot new starter confirmed? Bummer.

I mean, if Lucario is of any indication, it's more like what they would be a good poster boy for the generation.

But it's a rare occurrence it's not a starter anyway.

 

[StrawHatX]

I think the reality of the whole situation is characters that were made into spirits and AT’s just didn’t have priority when it came to the base roster and even DLC pass 1. They were regulated to their roles because that’s what Sakurai thought was best for them at that time.

DLC pass 2 seems to be entirely based on the fact that the first pass did so well so it’s very unlikely they had any kind of plan on what they would do for it. This also comes after Nintendo and Sakurai got to see the reactions to certain characters’ fates when the base game was revealed.

Honestly I think the only determining factor to how these characters are chosen is if once again Nintendo is deciding on a list or if Sakurai is. Because if Nintendo are the ones deciding priority I think that’s going to eliminate quite a few fan favorites. For certain characters I think their only real chance is if Sakurai really pushes for it.

Regardless I don’t think characters being spirits or AT’s really matters. If Nintendo or some other company wants to push that series then they’ll do that. Spring Man being an AT shouldn’t affect his chances at being the ARMS rep. If Nintendo wants more ARMS publicity and they want the face of the series as playable I highly doubt Sakurai is going to tell them it’s not possible because he’s an AT.

To me “fan rules” are just created by people who have a wanted character that doesn’t fall into a specific category like spirit or AT that want to convince themselves said character is more likely.

 

[Freduardo]

Hey I got a Fighter pass game. I've noticed a lot of people bring up mostly characters who are human or human-like like Phoenix Wright, 2B, Master Chief, Dante, etc. so here's a challenge. Make a fighters pass using non-human characters. When I mean non-human I also include species that have any resemblance to having the facial features of a human being. Characters like ARMS' Helix are fine but a character like KOS-MOS aren't. Here is mine for example:

1. Crash Bandicoot (Crash Bandicoot)
2. Klonoa (Klonoa)
3. Robo (Chrono Trigger)
4. Yooka & Laylee (Yooka Laylee)
5. Tails (Sonic The Hedgehog)
6. R-109 (TimeSplitters)

I’ll play your game you rogue

1. Poochy (Yoshi)
2. Zoda (Star Tropics, xenomorph form)
3. Amaterasu (Okami)
4. Prinny (Disgaea)
5. Dr. Goomba Tower (Dr. Goomba Tower World)
6. Mog (Final Fantasy VI)

 

[Cosmic77]

It's a shame Zoroark never got in Smash. I feel like it would've been a very unique addition.

Regardless, Zoroark wasn't a total failure. It still ranked in the top 25 most popular Pokemon, and it ended up being the second most popular Gen 5 Pokemon, only behind Chandelure.

So Every new Pokémon character going forward is going to be the hot new starter confirmed? Bummer.

Not necessarily. Keep in mind that Greninja and Incineroar are the only starters who got in as separate characters who weren't part of a gimmick.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Meanwhile most of Decidueye's popularity felt to be a thing just because of Pokkén and piggybacking from its much more popular first stage evolution, much more than Incineroar had from Litten.

And, from within the Smash fanbase, being a grass-type.

 

[Cosmic77]

And, from within the Smash fanbase, being a grass-type.

Even if we got a grass type that I genuinely liked more than the other starters, I feel like the Smash fanbase would completely ruin it for me.

This is the third time in a row where people have been pushing for a grass type. We're well past it being a coincidence, and I'm already expecting the current grass type at the time whenever the next Smash game gets announced to suddenly spike in popularity.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

I remember the Zoroark and Genesect days.

There was plenty of legit speculation that they might get into Smash 4 (mostly the former, if memory serves right). They were popular, but people (around here at least) always seem really split on them. You'd see lots of people giving praise to Zoroark, and lots of people being dismissive and disdainful of it.

Those days seemed to have long passed and there's hardly any talk about it at all anymore. Decidueye seems to be heading in the same direction.

 

[Freduardo]

It's a shame Zoroark never got in Smash. I feel like it would've been a very unique addition.

Regardless, Zoroark wasn't a total failure. It still ranked in the top 25 most popular Pokemon, and it ended up being the second most popular Gen 5 Pokemon, only behind Chandelure.



Not necessarily. Keep in mind that Greninja and Incineroar are the only starters who got in as separate characters who weren't part of a gimmick.

charizard technically did this in 4.

 

[Goombaic]

Even if we got a grass type that I genuinely liked more than the other starters, I feel like the Smash fanbase would completely ruin it for me.

This is the third time in a row where people have been pushing for a grass type. We're well past it being a coincidence, and I'm already expecting the current grass type at the time whenever the next Smash game gets announced to suddenly spike in popularity.

You ready for "Torterra for Smash" once Sinnoh's remade?

 

[Guynamednelson]

You ready for "Torterra for Smash" once Sinnoh's remade?

Hoo boy, and if you think I won't STFU about Rillaboom not working as a fighter, just wait.

 

[Opossum]

It's a shame Zoroark never got in Smash. I feel like it would've been a very unique addition.

Regardless, Zoroark wasn't a total failure. It still ranked in the top 25 most popular Pokemon, and it ended up being the second most popular Gen 5 Pokemon, only behind Chandelure.



Not necessarily. Keep in mind that Greninja and Incineroar are the only starters who got in as separate characters who weren't part of a gimmick.

Oh, I'm not trying to say Zoroark is straight up unpopular or anything. In the grand scheme of things it's not. It just never reached the same heights as the other mascot Mons.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

You ready for "Torterra for Smash" once Sinnoh's remade?

Hell yeah I am my continental turtle lad will finally get some mother****ing RESPECT on his name I'm not gonna hear otherwise

 

[Cosmic77]

You ready for "Torterra for Smash" once Sinnoh's remade?

I want to say I have the faith in this fanbase to choose someone like Garchomp, but I can genuinely see Torterra being the most popular Gen 4 request.

And then when ask people why they want Torterra, you'll get, "It's because it's one of the most unique Gen 4 Pokemon! Torterra has always been popular, and it being a grass type has nothing to do with people wanting it in Smash!"

Oh, I'm not trying to say Zoroark is straight up unpopular or anything. In the grand scheme of things it's not. It just never reached the same heights as the other mascot Mons.

Wasn't really directed at anyone in particular.

I was just pointing out that while Zoroark didn't succeed to the extent of Lucario, it wasn't a dud either. It's still a pretty popular Pokemon. That's what I think you're trying to say as well.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

So from what it seems the whole Pokemon anime has some truth to Pokemon reps being picked notably Incineroar being the antagonists Pokemon in that one movie.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

You ready for "Torterra for Smash" once Sinnoh's remade?

Toterra... Win

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Hoo boy, and if you think I won't STFU about Rillaboom not working as a fighter, just wait.

You'd at least have more of a leg to stand on since Torterra is incredibly bulky and doesn't really have a limb substitute like Ivysaur.

I still think you could find a way, but it'd be much harder than it would be for Rillaboom. Besides, Infernape is the the biggest of the gen 4 starters, if one were to be picked, it'd be Infirnape.

Still better than Cinderace...

 

[Opossum]

I mean honestly the only issue I see Torterra having is the ledge. Other than that I'd be totally on board. Sinnoh legit has the strongest final starter designs over all. Torterra, Infernape, and Empoleon are all fantastic.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

You'd at least have more of a leg to stand on since Torterra is incredibly bulky and doesn't really have a limb substitute like Ivysaur.

I still think you could find a way, but it'd be much harder than it would be for Rillaboom. Besides, Infernape is the the biggest of the gen 4 starters, if one were to be picked, it'd be Infirnape.

Still better than Cinderace...

Hehe you said 'leg to stand on' about an argument involving limbs

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

So from what it seems the whole Pokemon anime has some truth to Pokemon reps being picked notably Incineroar being the antagonists Pokemon in that one movie.

Incineroar is nothing like that. Decidueye was almost picked instead of Decidueye and the deciding factor was the moveset potential and Decidueye didn't have anything noteworthy in the anime, iirc.

[source]

 

[WeirdChillFever]

This vendetta against the grass starter is so weird. Grass as an element is highly underused in Smash and throughout speculation, each iteration of the grass starter had great moveset potential even without it. Decidueye was a dedicated archer with ghost-type and one look at his Pokkén moveset shows that even Sceptile had a lot of unique traits up his sleeve. Rillaboom has potential for a command center set between Grassy Terrain and his vine-spouting drum. To say that Torterra would have the same potential and popularity is very weird when your point is that Pokémon should be about more than typing.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Incineroar is nothing like that. Decidueye was almost picked instead of Decidueye and the deciding factor was the moveset potential and Decidueye didn't have anything noteworthy in the anime, iirc.

[source]

In that case I guess it could be any Gen 8 Pokemon.

If I had to make an guess maybe Urshifu? Same reason Sakurai went with Incineroar due to unique moveset (In this case different fighting stances or whatever it is) as there hadn't been an wrestling character before until Ultimate.

Could even go with Rillaboom given the whole drum set.

So maybe one of those two.

 

[Schnee117]

noooo, you can't just want a grass type starter

haha, grass go brrr

 

[PeridotGX]

In that case I guess it could be any Gen 8 Pokemon.

If I had to make an guess maybe Urshifu? Same reason Sakurai went with Incineroar due to unique moveset (In this case different fighting stances or whatever it is) as there hadn't been an wrestling character before until Ultimate.

Could even go with Rillaboom given the whole drum set.

So maybe one of those two.

there aren't any charlie chaplins in Smash, this is how Mr. Rime wins

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

This vendetta against the grass starter is so weird. Grass as an element is highly underused in Smash and throughout speculation, each iteration of the grass starter had great moveset potential even without it. Decidueye was a dedicated archer with ghost-type and one look at his Pokkén moveset shows that even Sceptile had a lot of unique traits up his sleeve. Rillaboom has potential for a command center set between Grassy Terrain and his vine-spouting drum. To say that Torterra would have the same potential and popularity is very weird when your point is that Pokémon should be about more than typing.

The “Vendetta” isn’t against Grass Starters it isn’t even a Vendetta it’s more the fact that people are jumping on board for ANY grass starter to complete a trinity when, by all means, that is perfectly represented in Pokémon Trainer. Wanting a grass starter for the sake of wanting a grass starter doesn’t equal wanting a specific Pokémon. I would love Sceptile but not for the fact that he’s the “token grass starter final evolution that apparently has to happen because of Inceneroar and Greninja.”

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Nintendo VS just tweeted about the Splatoon tournament. On a SATURDAY.

Suddenly a Sunday reveal doesn’t seem so farfetched

yes I’m desperate I don’t care at this point!

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

In that case I guess it could be any Gen 8 Pokemon.

If I had to make an guess maybe Urshifu? Same reason Sakurai went with Incineroar due to unique moveset (In this case different fighting stances or whatever it is) as there hadn't been an wrestling character before until Ultimate.

Could even go with Rillaboom given the whole drum set.

So maybe one of those two.

Inteleon is also a pretty underlooked choice.

The literal water gun, the sniping, the cloaking, the gliding, having a perching tower based on his Gigamtamax form... This could all make for a bunch of shenanigans that would come together in a moveset themed around espionage.

 

[Cosmic77]

There's nothing wrong with wanting someone with grass abilities, but we're getting to a point where that and being a starter are the only traits people are looking for in new Pokemon characters.

Completing a starter triangle has become extremely important to people, even though PT already does that wonderfully.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

There's nothing wrong with wanting someone with grass abilities, but we're getting to a point where that and being a starter are the only traits people are looking for in new Pokemon characters. Completing a starter triangle has become more important to people, even though PT already does that wonderfully.

Kinda like how some people only wanted Edelgard just because she had an axe.

These characters can have legit fans who genuinely want these characters, but those who just want to complete arbitrary triangles that don't even exist in Smash to begin with just stand out so much since their support to the character isn't genuine and they're just looking to fill in checkmarks of "representation"

 

[Schnee117]

The “Vendetta” isn’t against Grass Starters it isn’t even a Vendetta

I dunno, some people here would prove to the contrary
Like if people are saying Rillaboom wouldn't work as a fighter then it's pretty clear to me that, at the very least, they're not actually arguing in good faith

 

[SKX31]

Good morning!

When it comes to Smash speculation, and "upgrades", it's not a black and white situation all around. Based on experience since Wii U/3DS back when I was a wee youngin' in his freshman year of college to start, much of Smash speculation comes back to popularity as the "most important aspect". However, there seems to be a discrepancy between base game and DLC characters. There's also the fact that when suggestions are made that largely don't suggest what many consider an "ideal outcome" those suggestions aren't taken seriously.

This in itself is, from my viewpoint, based on the fact that there are two different conversations happening usually at the same time. Some folks are discussing (and sometimes arguing) which characters are "likely" based on given scenarios, and I don't believe that discussion should be discounted or given the characterization of "confirmation bias" as that's not always the case. The other discussion happening is folks who want to talk about the characters they want to see in Smash. There's nothing inherently wrong with that, as that's why most folks come here to post.

The thing is though, those conversations don't really mesh well together. If I say a particular character doesn't seem likely based on X, Y, or Z, the fans of that character more times than not will come out in defense of that character, when the goal wasn't to defame a character, but to measure/discuss potential inclusion.

You know, I do agree with the general sentiment here. My case does combine the two in a way:

I post here often about Nintendo's recent and current efforts in China (Nintendo have tried since the early 2000s, but the iQue line were percieved as pirate stuff. So that's a major reason why Nintendo chose to partner with Tencent for the Switch*). But I don't post just because I find a character that's partly aimed at Chinese audiences - such as LoL (which Tencent just so happen to own) - a real, distinct possibility. I'm also not just posting because I like LoL's genre (and not just because I happen to watch the game on a somewhat regular basis).

I also post about that because of the implications for Nintendo's future. Not future as in business future, but since I want to see Nintendo expand and see more people cherish their games. Sure, Nintendo's business has done some terrible things, but the heart is still there. A lot of us wouldn't be here about if it wasn't for the heart involved.

Incineroar is nothing like that. Decidueye was almost picked instead of Decidueye and the deciding factor was the moveset potential and Decidueye didn't have anything noteworthy in the anime, iirc.

[source]

Before Ultimate came out, I did prefer Decidueye - partly because he was my Sun starter and partly because an archer-centric moveset would be very interesting to see pull off. But I did warm up (no pun intended) to because the wrestler cat was turned into a legit exciting character. There are only a couple things I find glaring really. There's no way to cancel / shorten Darkest Lariat, and I think the cat needs another one of Zangief's trademark close-in options to not feel somewhat one-dimensional: the Banishing Flat. Still, I find Incin to be a greatly executed character and one of the most fun grapplers out there.

*(Tencent's own reasons are long - part of the story is that they lost over $200 Billion in a year prior to approaching Nintendo. Not kidding.)

 

[Cosmic77]

I dunno, some people here would prove to the contrary
Like if people are saying Rillaboom wouldn't work as a fighter then it's pretty clear to me that, at the very least, they're not actually arguing in good faith

At the very least, I don't think it's unfair to say that Rillaboom would be more of a challenge than the other two.

I'm sure Primarina could work as a fighter, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's just as likely to be chosen for a fast-paced fighting game as an archer or a wrestler.

 

[Schnee117]

At the very least, I don't think it's unfair to say that Rillaboom would be more of a challenge than the other two.

I'm sure Primarina could work as a fighter, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's just as likely to be chosen for a fast-paced fighting game as an archer or a wrestler.

Sure, but there's a world of difference between "It would be more of a challenge than the others" and "No it absolutely can't work"

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Before Ultimate came out, I did prefer Decidueye - partly because he was my Sun starter and partly because an archer-centric moveset would be very interesting to see pull off. But I did warm up (no pun intended) to because the wrestler cat was turned into a legit exciting character. There are only a couple things I find glaring really. There's no way to cancel / shorten Darkest Lariat, and I think the cat needs another one of Zangief's trademark close-in options to not feel somewhat one-dimensional: the Banishing Flat. Still, I find Incin to be a greatly executed character and one of the most fun grapplers out there.

Banishing Flat would've been a perfect ftilt, imo

 

[KingofPhantoms]

You ready for "Torterra for Smash" once Sinnoh's remade?

Forget that. My boy Luxray made top 30 on the Pokemon of the Year poll.

Luxray for Smash Ultimate LET'S GO

 

[ZephyrZ]

The one concern I have about Inteleon is that it'd be a mobile, sneaky, and lanky water type.

Now these similarities are all really superficial and I don't want to sound like those people who compared Incineroar to Bowser, but I think Inteleon would fill a similar niche that Greninja does already.

PS please don't construe this as me saying Inteleon would be a Greninja clone. He'd probably have a lot of things to set him apart, I'd just rather have something even more unique.

At the very least, I don't think it's unfair to say that Rillaboom would be more of a challenge than the other two.

He's a big Gorilla who carries around a pair of sticks and a drum he can potentially hit people with. I don't see how that'd be difficult to make into a fighter.

And before someone inevitably asks "but how can he move around when he has a drum" like they always do, remember that it's not actually that big and he can even carry it around on his back in Pokemon Camp.



On an unrelated note, I think we might be sleeping on Zarude somewhat. It's probably not going to be the generation mascot but it is going to have a movie role soon, and Sakurai did mention that's something that plays a factor. I think we should at least keep that monkey on our radar.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

On an unrelated note, I think we might be sleeping on Zarude somewhat. It's probably not going to be the generation mascot but it is going to have a movie role soon, and Sakurai did mention that's something that plays a factor. I think we should at least keep that monkey on our radar.

YES! You've got great taste!

 

[Michael the Spikester]

PS please don't construe this as me saying Inteleon would be a Greninja clone. I'd just rather have something even more unique.

Didn't stop familiar characters getting in.





Guess Inteleon should be referred to as Lanky Greninja? Also Rillaboom as Drummer Donkey Kong?

 

[Opossum]

Didn't stop familiar characters getting in.





Guess Inteleon should be referred to as Lanky Greninja? Also Rillaboom as Drummer Donkey Kong?

Literally nothing about that statement was in regards to likelihood, so what is this post trying to accomplish?