Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[NonSpecificGuy]

I think Spirits and AT’s disconfirm for things that are planned. E.G. base game trophies in Smash 4 for Base Game characters, Spirits and AT’s for Base Game and Fighter’s Pass 1 DLC. Because those were planned well in advance. In terms of Smash 4 DLC and Fighter’s Pass 2 they weren’t originally planned so, in my opinion, I think everyone is fair game.

 

[8-peacock-8]

Honestly, i've been at the point where saying "there's always next game" feels like a condescending way to tell people to get over it. Of course I was on Smash Twitter and Smash youtube a lot where it is used in that way on the regular so thats probably just because of that.

 

[RileyXY1]

I think Spirits and AT’s disconfirm for things that are planned. E.G. base game trophies in Smash 4 for Base Game characters, Spirits and AT’s for Base Game and Fighter’s Pass 1 DLC. Because those were planned well in advance. In terms of Smash 4 DLC and Fighter’s Pass 2 they weren’t originally planned so, in my opinion, I think everyone is fair game.

I think that characters who were released as Mii Fighter costumes or Spirits during FP1 is out, and I think that the Spirit Events completely deconfirm a character from their game or franchise.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I think Spirits and AT’s disconfirm for things that are planned. E.G. base game trophies in Smash 4 for Base Game characters, Spirits and AT’s for Base Game and Fighter’s Pass 1 DLC. Because those were planned well in advance. In terms of Smash 4 DLC and Fighter’s Pass 2 they weren’t originally planned so, in my opinion, I think everyone is fair game.

Even then, I feel like it's still on a case by case basis. While I absolutely love the concept of Isaac in Smash and greatly enjoyed Golden Sun, I'm not convinced at this point that he has a shot, despite Fighter Pass 2 not being planned at the beginning.

It makes me question what the plans for certain characters was in the first place, especially when we didn't even get the Geno costume, a groundbreaking moment in Smash, returning for Ultimate.

It's crazy.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Spring Man would only confirm that being an AT is not a hard barrier. Any ATs after him simply enter the speculation scene and the chance-game, but it doesn’t mean the odds cannot be stacked against them in other ways.

 

[MooMew64]

Sometimes its depressing liking Spring Man as a character and seeing people **** on him all the time.

Dude's a dork. I think he's great.

I'd be super happy for those who like him, and I'd still be excited to try him, he's just not my pick.

Again though, I'd be super happy for fans.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Spirits were chosen directly by Sakurai's team. They really don't fit the "couldn't be playable" or "consolation prizes" since there's nothing to suggest they were made with that in mind. And even then, that doesn't mean every Spirit is like that. A ton of them, sure. But over 500 weren't considered characters either.

AT's were noted by Sakurai that there's some cases where they couldn't make it playable status so got this instead. He never said it's for everyone, but you can kind of tell in some cases. He mostly jokes about it for being for Waluigi as one case. Some are not hard to guess, like Bomberman(but why he was not plausible for playable is unknown). Others obviously were not going to be considered(Moon).

Mii costumes are the same as AT's. Some can be consolation prizes, others wouldn't be. Erdrick's Descendant was not necessarily considered for playable, but Slime was noted as something Sakurai absolutely would be fine with if Luminary and Erdrick were said no to. Cuphead and Sans might not have been actually considered to be playable, nor many of the Mega Man costumes. But what about Goemon? It can vary and there's merit to each option and their plausibility.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Spirits were chosen directly by Sakurai's team. They really don't fit the "couldn't be playable" or "consolation prizes" since there's nothing to suggest they were made with that in mind. And even then, that doesn't mean every Spirit is like that. A ton of them, sure. But over 500 weren't considered characters either.

AT's were noted by Sakurai that there's some cases where they couldn't make it playable status so got this instead. He never said it's for everyone, but you can kind of tell in some cases. He mostly jokes about it for being for Waluigi as one case. Some are not hard to guess, like Bomberman(but why he was not plausible for playable is unknown). Others obviously were not going to be considered(Moon).

Mii costumes are the same as AT's. Some can be consolation prizes, others wouldn't be. Erdrick's Descendant was not necessarily considered for playable, but Slime was noted as something Sakurai absolutely would be fine with if Luminary and Erdrick were said no to. Cuphead and Sans might not have been actually considered to be playable, nor many of the Mega Man costumes. But what about Goemon? It can vary and there's merit to each option and their plausibility.

I would consider Rex’s costume a consolation prize, the way Sakurai worded it gave that impression. Idk about Goemon. Sans and Cuphead imo were just “shoutouts” and maybe specific requests from Toby Fox/Studio MDHR respectively, they were probably like “we’re not expecting our characters to be playable but if you wanna make them Mii costumes go ahead”

 

[Ura]

Of course, for every Spirit circumstances have changed in the sense that the limited slots have opened up, but we have no way of knowing which characters were actually close to making the cut. In a sense that makes speculation wide-open again, but on the other hand it doesn’t guarantee a mass exodus of Assist Trophies, even if Spring Man is in.

Well yeah that's true and all. It's just this idea of "if they were made a Spirit/AT in the base game, why would they become playable now?" just seems so ignorant. Of course, there doesn't have to be a bunch of promotions but the idea of missing base doesn't have to do anything with their prospects now. Certain characters had higher priority before for whatever reason be it popularity or marketing and it's a different time now compared to 2016 when the base roster was decided. And with a franchise that was previously unplayable like ARMS, we're seeing a good example of that.

 

[Opossum]

Hey I got a Fighter pass game. I've noticed a lot of people bring up mostly characters who are human or human-like like Phoenix Wright, 2B, Master Chief, Dante, etc. so here's a challenge. Make a fighters pass using non-human characters. When I mean non-human I also include species that have any resemblance to having the facial features of a human being. Characters like ARMS' Helix are fine but a character like KOS-MOS aren't. Here is mine for example:

1. Crash Bandicoot (Crash Bandicoot)
2. Klonoa (Klonoa)
3. Robo (Chrono Trigger)
4. Yooka & Laylee (Yooka Laylee)
5. Tails (Sonic The Hedgehog)
6. R-109 (TimeSplitters)

This was tougher than I thought it'd be, especially since I didn't want to doubledip on this pass, so like, no multiple Crash characters or things like that.

Crash Bandicoot
Frogger
Starfy
Chandelure
Daruk (if Gorons count since they're tricky...if they don't, then Blathers)
Tibarn, since he'd fight in Hawk form and we don't have a full bird character that fights like a bird.

 

[VGPhaze]

I don’t think there are any hard barriers. They can do whatever they want.
For speculation’s sake, I think it’s fair to assume that Assist Trophies becoming characters are less likely, simply because they are already represented in the game.

Same with spirits. They are less “front and center” than assist trophies, though.

Nothing is impossible. Even if Sakurai or Nintendo have said something in the past, it’s very possible that they can just change their minds about it. (Ridley)

This entire fighters pass could be upgraded assist trophies. The entire thing could be 1st party. The entire thing could be upgraded spirits.

Some may be less likely than others; Nintendo is going to want to do whatever will sell well and Sakurai and the team will want to do whatever they think will be the most fun/best for the game.

In my opinion I don’t think Nintendo will care at all about if a character is already an Assist Trophy. Sakurai and the team might prefer to add someone brand new for DLC instead though.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if Nintendo decided they wanted a fighter from ARMS, Sakurai said “okay!” And then went and spoke with the ARMS developers to decide who it should be.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Even then, I feel like it's still on a case by case basis. While I absolutely love the concept of Isaac in Smash and greatly enjoyed Golden Sun, I'm not convinced at this point that he has a shot, despite Fighter Pass 2 not being planned at the beginning.

It makes me question what the plans for certain characters was in the first place, especially when we didn't even get the Geno costume, a groundbreaking moment in Smash, returning for Ultimate.

It's crazy.

See, this is a post I can agree with, because you're focusing on a character specifically and saying that you don't think they have a great likelihood, independently of his AT status. But your other posts are blanket statements, talking about Assist Trophies in general, so it's not hard to read them as if you're saying they're unlikely because they're ATs.

If it's on a case by case basis, that's great! I think we definitely look at Assist Trophies (and Spirits, and every character for that matter) on a case by case basis, rather than outright dismiss all of them as some are doing.

 

[MooMew64]

TBH I do feel this ARMS character will decide the fate of many potential choices for this pass. If it isn't Spring Man, then I honestly can say I do believe ATs are out. If it's not one that's currently a Spirit, then I also will fully believe Spirits are out, especially because most of the most popular choices are already Spirits.

However, I would caution people here on assuming one way or the other who is "100% likely" even if we end up getting an upgrade, and this is coming from a hardcore Waluigi supporter. Would it look good? Absolutely! Does that mean we should just assume obvious promotions are now gonna happen? No. 'Cause at the end of the day, there's no guarantee that the potential ARMS fighter being an upgrade isn't just Nintendo's choice in marketing playing into the character's favor.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

See, this is a post I can agree with, because you're focusing on a character specifically and saying that you don't think they have a great likelihood, independently of his AT status. But your other posts are blanket statements, talking about Assist Trophies in general, so it's not hard to read them as if you're saying they're unlikely because they're ATs.

If it's on a case by case basis, that's great! I think we definitely look at Assist Trophies (and Spirits, and every character for that matter) on a case by case basis, rather than outright dismiss all of them as some are doing.

I haven't really spoken in blanket statements regarding Assist Trophies in quite some time now, or at least not in the last few weeks. It seems pretty clear to me that it makes sense to look at them as independent statements.

My first post this morning was pretty clear with that as well. Spring Man getting in makes sense if he's an upgrade, but after that it comes down to the individual character. Spring Man hardly helps other ATs, if at all, given the circumstances of his potential inclusion.

I don't think it's wise to say all AT's are out, but I think it's just as unwise to say they all have similar odds of being upgraded.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

All the characters I feel has the highest chances currently.

Cinderace
Crash Bandicoot
Geno
Heihachi
Lloyd Irving
Master Chief
Rayman
Rex
Ryu Hayabusa
Sol Badguy (Chances has increased given Spirit Event regarding Arc System)
Sora
Spring Man
Steve
Travis Touchdown
Waluigi

Anyone you guys think I could be missing?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I would consider Rex’s costume a consolation prize, the way Sakurai worded it gave that impression. Idk about Goemon. Sans and Cuphead imo were just “shoutouts” and maybe specific requests from Toby Fox/Studio MDHR respectively, they were probably like “we’re not expecting our characters to be playable but if you wanna make them Mii costumes go ahead”

That's my point. Every Mii costume should be looked at separately, not as a whole.

There's context. Rex was clearly a consolation prize for Pass 1. That was way before Pass 2 in consideration. That's why he's possible to get in Pass 2 since the context makes it clear what it was meant for. It doesn't mean he's super likely or anything either. And so on.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Cinderace

I'd like to know why Cinderace specifically.

If it's just because Ash has a Scorbunny, that's not enough of point imo because it'd be the same song and dance we've had with Lycanroc and Decidueye before ultimately getting Incineroar.

Especially when Sakurai's picks for Smash are always based on moveset potential rather than who Ash gets to own in the anime.

 

[Will]

I'd like to know why Cinderace specifically.

because sakurai is obviously biased for fire starters #baboomnowin

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I'd like to know why Cinderace specifically.

If it's just because Ash has a Scorbunny, that's not enough of point imo because it'd be the same song and dance we've had with Lycanroc and Decidueye before ultimately getting Incineroar.

Especially when Sakurai's picks for Smash are always based on moveset potential rather than who Ash gets to own in the anime.

But what aboutandgiven the anime? Also another reason for the latter.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

But what aboutandgiven the anime?

Both of them were picked by Sakurai using the mainline games' concept art. In other words, their games weren't even released by the time they were picked, so assuming the anime, which comes even later than the games, has a weight in the decision feels like straw-grasping, imo.

So their spotlight in the anime is either a coincidence or you've got the reasoning backwards and it's actually Game Freak/TPC/whoever makes the anime that decided to milk whoever Sakurai picked.

The anime should be seen as hints for a choice, not the actual reason for the choice. And even then, the first Pokemon isn't always the one we get, as seen with Litten/Incineroar.

The only character who was chosen specifically because of the anime was Lucario due to his movie.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I think the Pokemon picks are somewhere in the middle. The idea that Sakurai ironically picks a Pokemon that ends up having a spotlight role in the anime/movies is simply too coincidental to be the whole truth. Unless, of course, we assume that Lucario and Greninja only became a big deal in Pokemon due to them being in Smash, and there not being some sort of cohesive effort between the two games to build them up to a "mascot" status.

I don't know that Sakurai limits himself to the ideal "mascot", but I also don't know that I believe it's "hands off" like it seems at some times. I realize we have evidence that suggests Game Freak doesn't really tell Sakurai who to pick, but the fact that we got Lucario and Greninja seems to suggest he considers things like role in the anime.

Actually, now that I think about it, I believe he has mentioned that before in a column. I'll have to do some digging.

 

[Heoj]

All the characters I feel has the highest chances currently.

Cinderace
Crash Bandicoot
Geno
Heihachi
Lloyd Irving
Master Chief
Rayman
Rex
Ryu Hayabusa
Sol Badguy (Chances has increased given Spirit Event regarding Arc System)
Sora
Spring Man
Steve
Travis Touchdown
Waluigi

Anyone you guys think I could be missing?

I guess i mostly agree with this, tho i personally dont think waluigi or master chief are happening, id probs just replace spring man with an arms spirit. Id also give a spot to a capcom rep, no one specific but i think theirs a fairly good chance someone like phoenix wright, dante or a monster hunter character could get in.

edit: id also replace cinderace with a general gen 8 mon as i dont think the anime increases cinderaces chances.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Hate to double post, (though, I guess I didn't) but I found it.

This is Sakurai in 2013:

“Well first of all, we talk with the Pokemon company. What’s the hot Pokemon? What Pokemon are in the movies right now? And really do a lot of research on that front…

…For example, X and Y are coming out – of course, we haven’t done any market research because they’re not out yet, but we look at the animated series or movies and anything like that and again, find out which ones are going to be central to any of conversations in Pokemon going forward…

…But it’s not just that – going back to just what we talked about, what’s unique about them? Where do they fit in with the rest of everything else? What do they have? It’s a combination of those things.

It would appear the truth is somewhere in the middle. They don't just pick a Pokemon based on unique abilities. They do consult the Pokemon company on anime and other materials.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Hate to double post, but I found it.

Good thing someone posted in between then, huh?

 

[Cosmic77]

This thread can often be trigger-happy with confirmations and deconfirmations, and I feel like that's because we neglect to look at each character's merits individually. Patterns are almost always given more power, which is why we often see stuff like, "An AT hasn't gotten in before, so Spring Man is probably out," or, "Capcom and Namco haven't gotten a character yet, so they're probably next."

Rather than look at the character as a whole, we let patterns decide what's likely and what's not.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

This thread can often be trigger-happy with confirmations and deconfirmations, and I feel like that's because we neglect to look at each character's merits individually. Patterns are almost always given more power, which is why we often see stuff like, "An AT hasn't gotten in before, so Spring Man is probably out," or, "Capcom and Namco haven't gotten a character yet, so they're probably next."

Rather than look at the character as a whole, we let patterns decide what's likely and what's not.

And then people either complain or get overhyped when a pattern is broken.

Such is the cycle of Smash speculation.

Hate to double post, (though, I guess I didn't) but I found it.

This is Sakurai in 2013:


It would appear the truth is somewhere in the middle. They don't just pick a Pokemon based on unique abilities. They do consult the Pokemon company on anime and other materials.

You say that, but Greninja himself was decided before he even had a name, which manes me believe stuff like the anime may not have had much of an impact. Could be a case-by-case basis, maybe?

For example Greninja, even before his name was decided I received several illustrations. I took them home in the evening and around midnight I had already done all his actions, normal moves, special moves and pose-pictures and sent them around asking “What do you think?”.

[source]

 

[Perkilator]

Patterns are almost always given more power, which is why we often see stuff like, "An AT hasn't gotten in before, so Spring Man is probably out"

Well, my side (to try to put it more accurately) is that Assist Trophies haven't gotten in as DLC.

 

[RileyXY1]

I'd like to know why Cinderace specifically.

If it's just because Ash has a Scorbunny, that's not enough of point imo because it'd be the same song and dance we've had with Lycanroc and Decidueye before ultimately getting Incineroar.

Especially when Sakurai's picks for Smash are always based on moveset potential rather than who Ash gets to own in the anime.

Ash doesn't have a Scorbunny. Goh does.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Ash doesn't have a Scorbunny. Goh does.

Oh, my bad,

Point stays the same though, just change the name

 

[Deleted member]

Honestly, i've been at the point where saying "there's always next game" feels like a condescending way to tell people to get over it. Of course I was on Smash Twitter and Smash youtube a lot where it is used in that way on the regular so thats probably just because of that.

Given the ridiculous collaboration it took to get all these 3rd party characters in this game, 'next game' will be no way near as good since we'll likely lose half (if not more) of the third party guys.

 

[slrigeigdew]

Hey I got a Fighter pass game. I've noticed a lot of people bring up mostly characters who are human or human-like like Phoenix Wright, 2B, Master Chief, Dante, etc. so here's a challenge. Make a fighters pass using non-human characters. When I mean non-human I also include species that have any resemblance to having the facial features of a human being. Characters like ARMS' Helix are fine but a character like KOS-MOS aren't. Here is mine for example:

1. Crash Bandicoot (Crash Bandicoot)
2. Klonoa (Klonoa)
3. Robo (Chrono Trigger)
4. Yooka & Laylee (Yooka Laylee)
5. Tails (Sonic The Hedgehog)
6. R-109 (TimeSplitters)

1. Helix
2. Funky Kong
3. Gengar
4. Jack Frost
5. Monokuma
6. ATLAS and P-body

 

[Opossum]

And then people either complain or get overhyped when a pattern is broken.

Such is the cycle of Smash speculation.


You say that, but Greninja himself was decided before he even had a name, which manes me believe stuff like the anime may not have had much of an impact. Could be a case-by-case basis, maybe?



[source]

The Pokémon Company is a marketing machine. They've mostly been successful at artificially controlling certain Pokémon's popularity so they can become mascots. This kind of thing isn't accidental. Pretty much the only one they tried to make a mascot that didn't stick the landing was Zoroark.

So it's not just possible, but almost guaranteed that they knew Greninja would be popular when designing him, because he was designed to be popular. They can control that kind of thing. Make a cool ninja frog, decide to give him cool abilities to be competitively viable and give him to the main character in the anime, and give Sakurai a few sketches to further increase the appeal. All of this stuff happens simultaneously and well in advance.

The fact of the matter is that marketing decides what's popular much more so than the fans do, as cynical as that sounds. It's just reality.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

This thread can often be trigger-happy with confirmations and deconfirmations, and I feel like that's because we neglect to look at each character's merits individually. Patterns are almost always given more power, which is why we often see stuff like, "An AT hasn't gotten in before, so Spring Man is probably out," or, "Capcom and Namco haven't gotten a character yet, so they're probably next."

Rather than look at the character as a whole, we let patterns decide what's likely and what's not.

Looking at patterns is literally speculation. We've been over this.

I don't think it's a problem that people consider patterns/precedent important. It's far more indicative than just saying, "I like this character, so I think they're in".

What I believe the problem is, is treating every pattern as indicative of future content, and not as a guide that can provide some answers. It doesn't always give us the 100% correct answer every time, but it's valuable information nonetheless.

EDIT: There's also more to the picture than simply the identities of the characters as well. Marketing, timing, etc. Those things are important in determining timelines, purposes, etc.

I agree in some ways, but not in others.

 

[MonkeyDLenny]

The Pokémon Company is a marketing machine. They've mostly been successful at artificially controlling certain Pokémon's popularity so they can become mascots. This kind of thing isn't accidental. Pretty much the only one they tried to make a mascot that didn't stick the landing was Zoroark.

So it's not just possible, but almost guaranteed that they knew Greninja would be popular when designing him, because he was designed to be popular. They can control that kind of thing. Make a cool ninja frog, decide to give him cool abilities to be competitively viable and give him to the main character in the anime, and give Sakurai a few sketches to further increase the appeal. All of this stuff happens simultaneously and well in advance.

The fact of the matter is that marketing decides what's popular much more so than the fans do, as cynical as that sounds. It's just reality.

Which makes me wonder why on EARTH they went through all of the trouble to make Mimikyu one of the most beloved and well-received new generation Pokemon, gave him a starring role in the anime, drown him in merch, outright make him a perfect rival to Pikachu...

And then decide to stick in the roster when Decidueye was arguably the better face of the starter trio anyway

 

[DarthEnderX]

Make a fighters pass using non-human characters.

1. SV-001 Metal Slug [Metal Slug]
2. Bub/Bob [Bubble Bobble]
3. Rash/Zitz [Battletoads]
4. Amaterasu [Okami]
5. Firebrand [Gargoyle’s Quest]

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Even then, I feel like it's still on a case by case basis. While I absolutely love the concept of Isaac in Smash and greatly enjoyed Golden Sun, I'm not convinced at this point that he has a shot, despite Fighter Pass 2 not being planned at the beginning.

It makes me question what the plans for certain characters was in the first place, especially when we didn't even get the Geno costume, a groundbreaking moment in Smash, returning for Ultimate.

It's crazy.

Definitely. Like I don’t think Isaac is happening this Pass but it’s just nice to have a little hope.

 

[Cosmic77]

Both of them were picked by Sakurai using the mainline games' concept art. In other words, their games weren't even released by the time they were picked, so assuming the anime, which comes even later than the games, has a weight in the decision feels like straw-grasping, imo.

So their spotlight in the anime is either a coincidence or you've got the reasoning backwards and it's actually Game Freak/TPC/whoever makes the anime that decided to milk whoever Sakurai picked.

The anime should be seen as hints for a choice, not the actual reason for the choice. And even then, the first Pokemon isn't always the one we get, as seen with Litten/Incineroar.

The only character who was chosen specifically because of the anime was Lucario due to his movie.

This is sort of long, but Pokemon speculation is something I've invested quite a bit of time in for each Smash game.

Writers in the anime typically know the highlights of each series' plot from the very beginning, and I do think their decisions have been a strong influence for Sakurai and the Pokemon he chose for Smash.

Take Froakie and Litten for example. Even though neither of them evolved until much later, the writers had thrown in several hints in the first few episodes that they'd be a little more important to the plot than the other starters. Froakie was the only Gen 6 starter Ash owned, which is a huge step up from Chespin, the comedic relief, and Fennekin, the Pokemon whose trainer wouldn't decide what she would do during the series until the halfway point. I also think Ash-Greninja was something they had been planning for a while, since the tradition of making most of Ash's new Pokemon be from the current Gen was kept. Diance was the only Gen 6 Pokemon capable of Mega Evolving, so if they wanted Ash to be able to use Mega Evolution without relying on a Pokemon from a different Gen, making a special Mega was their only choice. They handled Litten and the Gen 7 starters in a similar manner. Popplio was owned by a character who would battle significantly less than Ash, Rowlet (despite being one of Ash's Pokemon) was the comedic relief with very little character development, and Litten was the one who would go on the handle the deeper, more meaningful plots. They had also included Incineroar as one of only three Gen 7 Pokemon in the I Choose You movie, and that's something that they had likely decided on months before SuMo even hit store shelves. There was definitely a stronger push for the Litten line than the other two.

At the bare minimum, Sakurai could've asked, "which starter do you believe will have the most important role," and they should've easily been able to give him an answer.

 

[Jomosensual]

IDK if we're still on the AT topic or not since I was a few pages back, but I hope that the people cheering for Springman so their fave can get upgraded aren't expecting too much after that. Same deal goes for spirits. If a spirit or an AT gets upgraded it's cool that whoever you want has a shot, but realistically how many more upgrades after that do we expect? FP2 isn't going to be only spirit or AT upgrades, I feel like that's a take that's safe to say. For all we know Springman might be the only AT or Twintelle(for example) might be the only spirit getting the call up.

So while we're in an exciting spot for people who spent the last year hearing that their favorite was deconfirmed, I just want to drop a reminder that whatever happens with ARMS could mean absolutely nothing as much for the rest of how DLC goes as much as it could mean everything, if that makes sense.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Which makes me wonder why on EARTH they went through all of the trouble to make Mimikyu one of the most beloved and well-received new generation Pokemon, gave him a starring role in the anime, drown him in merch, outright make him a perfect rival to Pikachu...

And then decide to stick in the roster when Decidueye was arguably the better face of the starter trio anyway

Because it was Sakurai's decision to add Incineroar to the character roster.

When planning began around December of 2015, I had resolved that I had to have all kinds of fighters in the game. Generally, though, I can’t really add a character from a game that hasn’t come out yet to the roster… So, I left one character frame open for Pokémon, and after Pokémon: Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon came out I took another look at it. That resulted in Incineroar being chosen. I wanted to try making a pro-wrestler type character at least once! Incineroar is voiced by the late Mr. Unshō Ishizuka – of Professor. Oak fame – who passed away back in August; he had recorded new lines just for this game. May he rest in peace.

 

[Digital Hazard]

And then decide to stick in the roster when Decidueye was arguably the better face of the starter trio anyway

I mean, Incineroar was the main Pokémon of the antagonist of the 20th anniversary movie that was meant to be a new continuity start, it was a somewhat regularly appearing Pokémon in the anime belonging to the guy Ash lived with, and Ash's Torracat ended evolving into one, plus in the Adventures manga it's the main starter of the protag of the Sun & Moon chapter.

Meanwhile most of Decidueye's popularity felt to be a thing just because of Pokkén and piggybacking from its much more popular first stage evolution, much more than Incineroar had from Litten.