Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[SMAASH! Puppy]

In Japan, yes. But what about us Westerners?

As far as I know, it's niche, but it exists.

I mean, this is apparently a Tohou reference.

 

[NintenZ]

Just want to point out, I haven’t been “inflating” anything, all I did was explain the impact of something from many years ago that’s still recognized today for it’s sheer impact despite how it’s popularity waned, yet somehow that’s considered “hypocritical” because someone seems vehemently against the idea of that topic and brought it up just because I stated that another completely unrelated thing I thought some had been exaggerating the popularity of it?

I really struggle to understand, why do things have to get to this point? I was just confused pot shots weren’t needed.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

Reminder this poster sincerely believes Sakura Taisen to be a huge phenomenon in Japan.

Sounds like a King

 

[BernkastelWitch]

Touhou is definitely massive.... Indie-wise.
I'd definitely compare it to something like Undertale. They're both very big to grant them a TON of Internet presence, there are sites and countless communities dedicated to both fandoms, yet you won't see much of either outside of the Internet.
Keep in mind that Touhou is constantly getting referenced and contains countless of memes on big sites like Nico Nico Douga (a Japanese video-sharing site like YouTube), just like how Undertale keeps getting referenced and memed on by countless big YouTubers. They both get constant remixes by fans as well and both communities are very active till this day. They're also both massive Indie-hits made by one person (or a VERY small team in Undertale's case).

To say that Touhou is as big as Dragon Quest, an AAA title that has shaped JRPGs as a whole and still remains to be cultural phenomenon in Japan, is ludicrous. But is it big? Yeah, Undertale-big. There are still way bigger IPs in Japan that are not repped in Smash yet, that's for sure. (SERIOUSLY WHERE IS MACHI)
As someone that visits Japan regularly for family-purposes, I hope this answers some questions.

Oh yeah. This is an accurate way to talk about it. I can't think of many series that have a massive following as Touhou does. And I can say even if people never heard of Touhou by name or Reimu or whatever, some of the viral content would have been seen and Touhou is usually the image of choice when people talk about Bullet Hells. And really, it's not as underground as people think it is. I mean hell, Touhou got referenced on some Cartoon Network show that escapes my mind recently which means either Touhou is known enough for CN execs to know or one of the storyboard writers is huge nerd.

Also one of Taiko No Tatsujin 3DS games had DLC with both Kirby and Touhou characters in it so Nintendo and Touhou have crossed before, even if it is just a rhythm game.

\


Yes this is real.

So it's not as small as people say it is. Not a big franchise but it's around Banjo/SNK levels IMO: It's presence is felt, even if barely by people not into these kinds of games.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I gotta be honest...I frankly don’t see Touhou or Sakura Wars as likely here.

Sure, we could say they have a shot. But just how big of a shot? There’s niche and obscure obviously, and I wouldn’t say either series is like, “the most obscure” gaming series...but I’d say they’re niche outside of Japan, which does matter one way or another.

Granted, I haven’t been convinced by much of either series. Though I would probably expect Sakura before Reimu. I don’t have much aside from anecdotal evidence to support anything, so see it as “bias” if you like, but even after people telling me, “You’ve definitely heard Bad Apple before but just didn’t know it!” I indeed had never heard Bad Apple, and had never heard/seen anything Touhou related in my entire history as a gamer. Granted, I’m not a PC player so that may be part of it.

I just think with particular niche or smaller franchises in the grand scheme of things, fans inflate the franchises to a new level to make it line up with other picks. Social media also leads to like minded fans to really beef up support in same ways, and that can sometimes lead to certain smaller characters/less talked about characters to kinda blow up.

Anyway, no shots meant to be fired here. It’s just an observation.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

This is more anecdotal, but I think Tohou is pretty popular amongst the hardcore Mega Man crowd. There's a Tohou/Mega Man fan game that seems to take Tohou's characters and Mega Man's gameplay, numerous Tohou references in Make a Good Mega Man Level 2, and Perfect Freeze is a weapon in Mega Man Maker, along with this.

EDIT: Sticking Cierno's theme in random places is a bit of a meme iirc.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

They should put a Psikyo character in Smash


EDIT: only 3 results for Psikyo on here GODAMN

 

[NintenZ]

I gotta be honest...I frankly don’t see Touhou or Sakura Wars as likely here.

Sure, we could say they have a shot. But just how big of a shot? There’s niche and obscure obviously, and I wouldn’t say either series is like, “the most obscure” gaming series...but I’d say they’re niche outside of Japan, which does matter one way or another.

Granted, I haven’t been convinced by much of either series. Though I would probably expect Sakura before Reimu. I don’t have much aside from anecdotal evidence to support anything, so see it as “bias” if you like, but even after people telling me, “You’ve definitely heard Bad Apple before but just didn’t know it!” I indeed had never heard bad apple, and had never heard/seen anything Touhou related in my entire history as a gamer. Granted, I’m not a PC player so that may be part of it.

I just think with particular niche or smaller franchises in the grand scheme of things, fans inflate the franchises to a new level to make it line up with other picks. Social media also leads to like minded fans to really beef up support in same ways, and that can sometimes lead to certain smaller characters/less talked about characters to kinda blow up.

Anyway, no shots meant to be fired here. It’s just an observation.

I get what you mean and I’m happy there’s no beef, but there’s no real bias from me, for one in terms of speculation I look at everything from an unbiased perspective, and I only started truly getting into the series after I did research about it for Smash (I was a little into it before but I only knew vague details), I’ve already said a lot of reasons why I think it’s possible so I don’t want to stress the details yet again but it truly feels like every time I do I just get hushed out and just not listened to because people would rather have something else, which is fine and all but like I think it’s best we all think rationally when talking about speculation instead of just thinking about what we personally want to happen, cause that’s how picks like Terry and even Byleth fall under the radar. I don’t wanna have to go through this again because I’ve tried my hardest to explain my perspective and at this point I feel like I’m running like a chicken with it’s head cut off with how hard I’ve been trying, I just really hope my perspective could be respectfully understood is all.

I hope I made myself clear.

 

[Goombaic]

Can we assign one person to post the Twitter post for the tourney/spirit event so that we don't get 5 different people trying to break the news at once?

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I get what you mean and I’m happy there’s no beef, but there’s no real bias from me, for one in terms of speculation I look at everything from an unbiased perspective, and I only started truly getting into the series after I did research about it for Smash (I was a little into it before but I only knew vague details), I’ve already said a lot of reasons why I think it’s possible so I don’t want to stress the details yet again but it truly feels like every time I do I just get hushed out and just not listened to because people would rather have something else, which is fine and all but like I think it’s best we all think rationally when talking about speculation instead of just thinking about what we personally want to happen, cause that’s how picks like Terry and even Byleth fall under the radar. I don’t wanna have to go through this again because I’ve tried my hardest to explain my perspective and at this point I feel like I’m running like a chicken with it’s head cut off with how hard I’ve been trying, I just really hope my perspective could be respectfully understood is all.

I hope I made myself clear.

Oh for sure! I think it’s good to present new ideas, and I kinda think folks were hard on the idea of Sakura coming from you tonight.

It’s one thing to present a differing opinion, and a totally different thing to be condescending or rudely dismissive. I totally see where you’re coming from my friend.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I can see Sakura wars happening, I just don't expect it

Back in its heyday it was quiet a popular series with all the adaptations, stage shows and merch. Even in the 15 year gap between games it was still popular enough in Japan to get crossovers in other media like in mobile games, MMO's and in Project X Zone and some merch here and there, so clearly There s still enough of a fanbase to drive interest in the series, all it depends on is if any higher up at Nintendo thinks it's a good idea to bring the series into smash because of it.

I know nothing of Tpuhou so I can't really say anything

 

[Mr. Robotto]

Honestly, Sakura Wars is one of those franchises I'd 100% fully expect if Sakurai pulled a "rep for Japan" character. Along with franchises like Puyo Puyo, Xenogears, Tactics Ogre and Far East of Eden. Touhou isn't that far off the list though.

They should put a Psikyo character in Smash

Talking about such a big Japanese phenomena on the Internet like Touhou then switching the topic to Psikyo... You know what you're doing.
CHO ANIKI REP CONFIRMED?

Spoiler: Maybe a bit too sensitive for the eyes

I know there's only like one Cho Aniki game developed by Psikyo, but shh let me live my dream

 

[NintenZ]

Oh for sure! I think it’s good to present new ideas, and I kinda think folks were hard on the idea of Sakura coming from you tonight.

It’s one thing to present a differing opinion, and a totally different thing to be condescending or rudely dismissive. I totally see where you’re coming from my friend.

Yeah of course! Presenting these new ideas are meant to get the brain juices flowing and get thinking about new ideas, I admit I kinda let it get to me because I sometimes feel kinda crazy for presenting these ideas (It's kinda the same way I felt about Terry although since this is a franchise that's not super mainstream in the West I think it's a lot more amplified) but it's important to note that it's all a matter of perspective but it's also important we listen to what others are saying is all.

 

[BernkastelWitch]

Oh for sure! I think it’s good to present new ideas, and I kinda think folks were hard on the idea of Sakura coming from you tonight.

It’s one thing to present a differing opinion, and a totally different thing to be condescending or rudely dismissive. I totally see where you’re coming from my friend.

As someone who is used to seeing people mock you and yell at you for even merely bringing up the idea of someone like Reimu in Smash, this is very refreshing to hear. Not everyone is knowledgeable about every series or why they may have a chance in Smash so it is good to hear people accepting of differing opinions.

And honestly, hearing about Reimu or Sakura as even possibilities in Smash is IMO, refreshing especially when people bring up characters like Waluigi or Geno literally every single day and are dismissive of characters outside of a small bubble.

And personally for me, Reimu is one of my most wanteds given how Touhou means a lot to me as a franchise and how long I've been in it for(A long time and I found my SO through it) so even if it looks "Unlikely" I won't stop giving my reasons why Reimu may have a chance or look for an excuse to nerd out about the series.

 

[NintenZ]

As someone who is used to seeing people mock you and yell at you for even merely bringing up the idea of someone like Reimu in Smash, this is very refreshing to hear. Not everyone is knowledgeable about every series or why they may have a chance in Smash so it is good to hear people accepting of differing opinions.

And honestly, hearing about Reimu or Sakura as even possibilities in Smash is IMO, refreshing especially when people bring up characters like Waluigi or Geno literally every single day and are dismissive of characters outside of a small bubble.

And personally for me, Reimu is one of my most wanteds given how Touhou means a lot to me as a franchise and how long I've been in it for(A long time and I found my SO through it) so even if it looks "Unlikely" I won't stop giving my reasons why Reimu may have a chance or look for an excuse to nerd out about the series.

Honestly I agree with this, hearing about characters WE aren't familiar with that have impacted another audience is honestly really refreshing and I do hope that a character like that ends up getting in because it'd introduce them to a whole new audience and it'd kinda be something we haven't really seen before.

It's an invigorating thought honestly.

 

[andree123]

【トーナメントイベント】
5/29(金)から3日間、「ハイラルに集え！ トライフォース争奪戦」を開催！ 『ゼルダの伝説』シリーズのファイター&ステージ限定のトーナメントです。参加すると同シリーズのスピリッツを入手でき、勝ち進むほど豪華になります。#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/diy6VlUUUZ

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) May 27, 2020

Zelda tournament.

We better need another Zelda fighter in the next smash.

 

[Knight Dude]

It can be neat learning about new weirdos. Even if I'm not convinced to want them in Smash or anything like that.

 

[Megadoomer]

Can we assign one person to post the Twitter post for the tourney/spirit event so that we don't get 5 different people trying to break the news at once?

It's nothing too exciting; it's just a Zelda-themed tournament.

I figured we'd get Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition spirits based on the epilogue, but it seems like they're waiting until after the ARMS reveal for new spirits to be added. (watch as I am proven horribly wrong next week, with one of my most wanted series being relegated to spirit status in the process)

 

[Cosmic77]

Zelda tournament.

We better need another Zelda fighter in the next smash.

We need another Zelda fighter in this Smash.

 

[Droodle]

It's refreshing that we're so close to the potential reveal of the ARMS rep (and potentially character 7) without a single huge, 99% real leak. I know there are a ton of "smaller leaks" such as the information popping up around Reimu and Rayman, that LoL character leak, and I guess there's still a 1% chance that Cacomallow is real; but there hasn't been a huge bombshell for a couple months. Realistically the last character that insiders leaked was Banjo, Terry was all on Nintendo, and no one really leaked Byleth. Even now, we know the series that character 6 is from but no insider has stated which character in particular.

My uncle works at Nintendo and he said that character 7 is Sigurd and character 8 is Seliph. He may not exist though, but it's likely 99% real.

 

[Deleted member]

[twitter post]
Zelda tournament.

We better need another Zelda fighter in the next smash.

Once again, we are left waiting for the Fire Emblem Tourney to commence.

 

[Ben Holt]

【トーナメントイベント】
5/29(金)から3日間、「ハイラルに集え！ トライフォース争奪戦」を開催！ 『ゼルダの伝説』シリーズのファイター&ステージ限定のトーナメントです。参加すると同シリーズのスピリッツを入手でき、勝ち進むほど豪華になります。#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/diy6VlUUUZ

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) May 27, 2020

Zelda tournament.

We better need another Zelda fighter in the next smash.

Is my girl, Impa, imminent?

 

[NintenZ]

I do have to say, it's pretty nice we turned around a negative discussion into something positive and open-minded.

Only a little while longer till we get the ARMS rep, pretty excited to see what it'll be. Embarrass

 

[BernkastelWitch]

Honestly my "weirdest" want isn't even Reimu. One character I know is utterly impossible but I like the idea of in Smash is a Dynasty Warriors rep like Lu Bu. At least Touhou or Danganronpa get discussed now and then and I want Reimu or Monokuma but virtually no one seriously brings up Dynasty Warriors, mainly because the frontrunner for a Koei rep is not Zhao Yun or Lu Bu but Ryu Hayabusa.

But given how without DW, we wouldn't have the Musou sub genre and various games like Hyrule Warriors wouldn't exist, I thought Dynasty Warriors would be fun to speculate on, especially since I think someone like Lu Bu is one of the most recognizable even if you discount the ROTK stuff and most people I know who aren't fans of Dynasty Warriors know about Lu Bu.

It's a bizarre "Want" but it's one I think would be fun to think about.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

Honestly, Sakura Wars is one of those franchises I'd 100% fully expect if Sakurai pulled a "rep for Japan" character. Along with franchises like Puyo Puyo, Xenogears, Tactics Ogre and Far East of Eden. Touhou isn't that far off the list though.


Talking about such a big Japanese phenomena on the Internet like Touhou then switching the topic to Psikyo... You know what you're doing.
CHO ANIKI REP CONFIRMED?

Spoiler: Maybe a bit too sensitive for the eyes

View attachment 272829

I know there's only like one Cho Aniki game developed by Psikyo, but shh let me live my dream

I was thinking of Sengoku Ace

but than they'd have to stick with Miko's younger design before she becomes a bombshell(hahah GET IT?) in Sengoku Blade since smash is a game for good boys and girls.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

【トーナメントイベント】
5/29(金)から3日間、「ハイラルに集え！ トライフォース争奪戦」を開催！ 『ゼルダの伝説』シリーズのファイター&ステージ限定のトーナメントです。参加すると同シリーズのスピリッツを入手でき、勝ち進むほど豪華になります。#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/diy6VlUUUZ

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) May 27, 2020

Zelda tournament.

We better need another Zelda fighter in the next smash.

That's such a simple piece of art but I love how It looks.

 

[PeridotGX]

Isn't it odd that they added Cuphead spirits almost immediately after the Mii Costume's release, but they still haven't added Undertale spirits? Very strange, because I can't imagine Toby would be even slightly difficult to work with.

unless... they're saving the spirits for a Fighter's Pass?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

【トーナメントイベント】
5/29(金)から3日間、「ハイラルに集え！ トライフォース争奪戦」を開催！ 『ゼルダの伝説』シリーズのファイター&ステージ限定のトーナメントです。参加すると同シリーズのスピリッツを入手でき、勝ち進むほど豪華になります。#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/diy6VlUUUZ

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) May 27, 2020

Zelda tournament.

We better need another Zelda fighter in the next smash.

Wait, who are the characters they'll put in this tournament? I thought Smash only considered Zelda content as stages and assists...

Seriously though, we should have more Zelda characters as big of a series as it is. Love for Midna to get out of Assist Trophy hell, or maybe Skull Kid. And I still think Urbosa would have been a great addition.

 

[Digital Hazard]

【トーナメントイベント】
5/29(金)から3日間、「ハイラルに集え！ トライフォース争奪戦」を開催！ 『ゼルダの伝説』シリーズのファイター&ステージ限定のトーナメントです。参加すると同シリーズのスピリッツを入手でき、勝ち進むほど豪華になります。#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/diy6VlUUUZ

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) May 27, 2020

Zelda tournament.

We better need another Zelda fighter in the next smash.

The problem with Zelda is being stuck in a weird character limbo where only the Triforce holders matter overall, and the other recurring characters...

Well, the other three that people actually remember appearing in multiple games are Tingle, Impa and Beedle, and I wouldn't mind the first two, there's just not so much to work with in terms of "needing" someone.

"But Midna/Skull Kid/Ghirahim!"

Look, I like all these guys too, but it just seems one-offs regarding this series are simply off the radar for some reason.

If I really had to guess, it's just that the devs and/or Nintendo simply consider adding secondary stuff like stages and updating the Triforce holders as enough, having the main characters already in. And unlike any of the RPGs in Smash, it's not like the main character changes, at least in essence, so it's likely low priority in their eyes to get them in, as important as they were to their respective games.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Isn't it odd that they added Cuphead spirits almost immediately after the Mii Costume's release, but they still haven't added Undertale spirits? Very strange, because I can't imagine Toby would be even slightly difficult to work with.

unless... they're saving the spirits for a Fighter's Pass?

That was what we would get if Sakurai beat Toby.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Well, the other three that people actually remember appearing in multiple games are Tingle, Impa and Beedle, and I wouldn't mind the first two, there's just not so much to work with in terms of "needing" someone.

"But Midna/Skull Kid/Ghirahim!"

For the record, Skull Kid has appeared in more than one game. It's not as much as Beedle (who I think is in 3 of them), but he has made a second appearance. I believe this is true of Vaati as well.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Zelda is forever stuck with the six current characters, only due to the fact that if you seperate em in rows by what triforce they hold, you can make a triangle, and that's just way too perfect

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Zelda is forever stuck with the six current characters, only due to the fact that if you seperate em in rows by what triforce they hold, you can make a triangle, and that's just way too perfect

And somewhere the agonizing cries of Ganon can be heard off in the distance.

 

[Digital Hazard]

For the record, Skull Kid has appeared in more than one game. It's not as much as Beedle (who I think is in 3 of them), but he has made a second appearance. I believe this is true of Vaati as well.

I guess that's true, but I'm not sure how much Nintendo sees value in him considering that his other two appearances are pretty minor, and optional in his first one.

A part of me is sure that Sakurai is aware of their demand and that's why they're ATs, not as a slap to the face, it's just what can be done with characters that aren't prioritized.

 

[cosmicB]

You know it’s funny

This thread seems to take Reimu as a potential contender VERY seriously it seems like, and she’s commonly brought up to discredit more out-there choices people don’t agree with

Like I’ve seen some people here even call her “Slept on” but everything said seems largely anecdotal and based off personal echo chambers

If someone could elaborate on why she’s allegedly so likely or a compelling character that people should be keeping an eye on, that’d be great, because I see people saying she and her franchise are Dragon Quest-tier levels of popularity in Japan and I don’t buy it for a minute

A lot of it comes down to Touhou being a legacy phenomenon in a very specific context: Japanese doujin/indie games. But the thing is that phenomenon goes beyond the actual games to the point that they're arguably straight-up overshadowed. Internet culture is where this property thrives, so it might not be as clear how big it is to people that aren't constantly plugged in because outside of that, it kind of really isn't that big.

You know how Undertale was basically one big meme? Touhou is like that on steroids in Japan, at least in the context of the time period. In terms of early 2000s internet culture, it's basically Undertale/DDLC, Youtube Poops, and AMVs all rolled into one. Like to a lot of people of a certain time period, Touhou WAS NicoNicoDouga (basically Japan's Youtube at one point for those that don't know).

The thing is that could be a double-edged sword as far as Reimu is concerned. Despite being the protagonist, she's far from the most popular or even visible character for people on the outskirts of the fanbase that just like the music and internet phenomenon part (someone like Cirno is bigger I believe), which might be the majority of people that even know what Touhou is at this point.

I feel like all this combined kind of makes a Touhou Mii Costume more likely if that, but I'd love to be wrong.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Zelda is forever stuck with the six current characters, only due to the fact that if you seperate em in rows by what triforce they hold, you can make a triangle, and that's just way too perfect

________

Pretty malformed triangle.

I know! Add Toon Zelda, Ganon, and Toon Ganondorf. Perfect!

 

[Deleted member]

Honestly my "weirdest" want isn't even Reimu. One character I know is utterly impossible but I like the idea of in Smash is a Dynasty Warriors rep like Lu Bu. At least Touhou or Danganronpa get discussed now and then and I want Reimu or Monokuma but virtually no one seriously brings up Dynasty Warriors, mainly because the frontrunner for a Koei rep is not Zhao Yun or Lu Bu but Ryu Hayabusa.

But given how without DW, we wouldn't have the Musou sub genre and various games like Hyrule Warriors wouldn't exist, I thought Dynasty Warriors would be fun to speculate on, especially since I think someone like Lu Bu is one of the most recognizable even if you discount the ROTK stuff and most people I know who aren't fans of Dynasty Warriors know about Lu Bu.

It's a bizarre "Want" but it's one I think would be fun to think about.

It's not weird to want a Dynasty Warriors rep, but what is weird is how people don't see the series as likely as Ninja Gaiden despite the accolades it has over its brand. Even with naysayers thinking it can't happen because of the characters being based off of their real life counterparts, hardly anybody brings the series up within Smash speculation. Somehow, more people around the Smash fandom talked more about Hyrule Warriors than they did with any SNK property before the NoE leak happened, and yet most people don't bat an eye on Dynasty Warriors, the series that first started the Musou genre to begin with, being a possibility still to this day.

Now, I also haven't been mentioning Dynasty Warriors so much either, but at the same time, it'd be a huge surprise/shocker for quite a lot of people if Zhao Yun or Lu Bu were revealed for Vol 2 since there hasn't been much discussion around it. Even more shocking would be Yukimura from Samurai Warriors, but I wouldn't expect it to be in Smash before Dynasty Warriors. I can only hope Nintendo loves the idea of Dynasty Warriors being in Smash as much as I do.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Ugh, lemme address these points one by one, and then I'll leave it at that before it gets more off-topic than it already has.

Spoiler

• You could call Nier a spinoff lore-wise, but it's its own series and ergo "not Drakengard" which is the entire point of the conversation and why you won't see Drakengard music in 2B gets in and sticks to Nier content and vice-versa for Caim/Zero.
• The entire concept of Persona is Jungian psychology and personas. SMT: If is "what if an apocalypse with demons happened in a school setting" The only thing that gets carried over is the highschool setting.
• Tamaki Uchida appears in Persona 1 and 2, not 3.
• Just because you're part of the same timeline doesn't mean you're a spinoff of another series. For yet another comparison I have to make, Final Fight has Cody Travers and Guy are both popular characters in Street Fighter, and despite that none are spinoffs of the other. Not to mention Strider is no connected to that timeline via Zeku.
• Being tied to SMT:If doesn't mean **** for not being another branch as we have:
• Raidou Kuzunoha referencing SMT1, still a different subseries
• Devil Survivor also has a reference to SMT1, still a different subseries
• Digital Devil Saga has the exact same combat system, THE ACTUAL DEMI-FIEND AS A SUPER-BOSS AND DIRECTLY REFERENCES NOCTURNE, and it is still a different subseries.
• Final Fantasy Tactics takes place in Ivalice which is has FF12 tied to it. Also, Vagrant Story, which is another example, but we've seen enough. Beyond that point, it is directly referenced as an FF spinoff and gets featured in FF material like Dissidia.

Look, it isn't tone, story, characters, tenuous plot connections, and least of all quality that determines if a game has the "SMT" moniker, becuase it's an arbitrary title.
Which is why actual spinoffs like SMT:If, SMT: Nine, SMT: Imagine, and even the damn mobile gacha game SMT:Dx2 vary wildly in all the above qualities.

TL;DR, look at this box:


And this conversation sums up why to this day I still can't look up SMT in google images and bet met with Joker's dumbass grin.

View attachment 272816

I mean none of what you say really helps the point you're making, if anything it implies that SMT is the main series and all the others are spin-offs of it.

 

[Will]

Likely or not likely, expectations have been subverted before. Sure didn't expect Terry, but that was a sleeper hit. I'm more interested in what the general consensus about a Touhou character is rather than their "objective" "chances".

 

[Digital Hazard]

The thing is that could be a double-edged sword as far as Reimu is concerned. Despite being the protagonist, she's far from the most popular or even visible character for people on the outskirts of the fanbase that just like the music and internet phenomenon part (someone like Cirno is bigger I believe), which might be the majority of people that even know what Touhou is at this point.

I'm pretty sure a whole bunch of Street Fighter players prefer anyone other than Ryu or the same with Fatal Fury/King of Fighters fans and Terry, but at the same time I'm sure they find it logical for the main character/mascot to make it into a crossover first.

So saying that I'm more than sure that Touhou fans in general can agree she's not their favorite character, heck, I prefer a bunch of other people like Yukari or Sanae over her, but that if someone was to get into a big crossover, she would be undoubtedly the first, followed by Marisa.