Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[slrigeigdew]

Hey smash fans, I was wondering, what would you think if Sakurai’s team starts to make some spirit promotions but as assist trophies ?? Characters like Rayman, Shantae, Geno, Dixie Kong and a few more.

I'd only be okay with it if it's spirits that are corresponding with DLC. Otherwise it would unironically be a waste of Dev time.

Just some thoughts about "fan rules"...

Some tendencies will never be broken but on the other hand, even a long lasting trend can come to an end pretty much at any time.

This right here is why I've always been open minded about the possibility of us getting either multiple ARMS fighters or someone other than Springman. even if I personally think both are highly unlikely.

Even putting all the fan rules aside, there's plenty of reasons that lead me to believe that they'll just go with Springboi and call it a day. But then again, this is a rather unique situation we find ourselves in.
We'll just have to wait and see...

 

[Knight Dude]

I don't post or visit the site for about a week, and I really saw Misango slander, you hate to see it. He's one of the coolest characters and even has a cool unique gimmick. Meanwhile, everyone daps up how Min-Min can kick(mind you she's still cool), but sure, the dude who can boost his speed or damage or meter building isn't interesting.

 

[KillerCage]

I don't post or visit the site for about a week, and I really saw Misango slander, you hate to see it. He's one of the coolest characters and even has a cool unique gimmick. Meanwhile, everyone daps up how Min-Min can kick(mind you she's still cool), but sure, the dude who can boost his speed or damage or meter building isn't interesting.

Personally I think he was forgettable and his fighting style didn't jive with me, but each to their own.
I'm more of a Kid Cobra guy myself.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I don't post or visit the site for about a week, and I really saw Misango slander, you hate to see it. He's one of the coolest characters and even has a cool unique gimmick. Meanwhile, everyone daps up how Min-Min can kick(mind you she's still cool), but sure, the dude who can boost his speed or damage or meter building isn't interesting.

Honestly, I think her kicks are overblown. It's not even her main mechanic.

 

[Ben Holt]

That just seems like it would be a jerk move, or incredibly tone-deaf, on the developers' part. "Hey, we're promoting popular spirits like Rayman, Geno, and Dixie Kong! ...to assist trophies."

Thankfully, it's not likely going to happen, since none of the updates for any Smash game have included new assist trophies.

I wouldn't mind DLC Assist Trophies that were related to their Challenger Pack.
Mumbo could have been really fun by randomly transforming whoever summoned him. 4 seconds of invincibility, 10 seconds of metal, 6 seconds of invisibility, and 5 seconds of giant.
Spyro would be an awesome Assist Trophy to go along with a playable Crash Bandicoot.

 

[DanganZilla5]

"Smash fan-rules are more like guidelines".

This is what they should be, but it's just that some people take it to the extreme and think that its a definitive rule even when Sakurai doesn't explicitly say it is. I do think there is some merit to some fan rules. Like the fan rule of spirits and assist trophies deconfirming characters for the first fighters pass. That was a sound argument because it's based on the idea that those things were decided alongside the DLC so if, for example Rayman were to be playable for the first fighters pass, it would not make sense for Rayman's spirit to be right there in the base game. And people were right. It's the same thing with post-base game spirits. If they planned on adding a Resident Evil character, having that spirit event months ago would not make sense. Though that might not be the best example as there are a lot more characters who wasn't in that event that could be included in a future spirit board. The best example would probably be the Astral Chain or Ring Fit Trainer spirit events since those really limit any new spirits that a spirit board would bring.

That brings me to the second fighters pass and that's when I have a problem with the spirit and assist trophy rule. While it's hard to tell if the second fighters pass was possibly planned from the beginning, we can probably safely assume it wasn't. The thing is, I haven't heard a single convincing argument as to why spirits and assist trophies wouldn't be upgraded. When it at least comes to assist trophies those already give the Smash team a model and some animations to work with. People like to bring up that assist trophy upgrades have never happened in the same game but I would like to bring up that this is only the second Smash game to have DLC. For Smash 4, it was likely a bigger priority to bring back some veterans and introduce some more important 3rd party characters like Ryu and Cloud. While you could argue the same thing for Ultimate, the thing is that we already have every veteran and a bunch of new 3rd party franchises. We got the requested and iconic Castlevania series, the very influential Dragon Quest series, Persona which is a popular series with the fifth game being widely critically acclaimed and is considered one of the best rpgs of this generation, the heavily requested Banjo, and the series that directly influenced Smash, Fatal Fury.

While there are certainly a lot more important and requested third party franchises and I'm sure we are still getting some more, the thing is that third parties took over the first fighters pass by storm with only one new first party character. For the second fighters pass, we already got the confirmation of an ARMS character. Perhaps this is the time that Nintendo and Sakurai looked back at first parties and it just so happens that some of the most glaring and requested first party characters left (Waluigi, Isaac, Skull Kid, etc) are assist trophies. What I'm getting at is that this the biggest chance that assist trophies have ever had, especially since ARMS was announced and Spring Man is the mascot of the game. Same with base game spirits, plus the fact that Lucas and I think Mewtwo had trophies in Smash 4 before they became playable and that line of thinking could reasonably be applied to spirits too.

So the big picture here is that fan rules can be true, but they also need to adapt to new circumstances. Just because assist trophies and spirits were deconfirmations for the first fighters pass, that doesn't mean the same is true for the second fighters pass. Personally the only fan rules I agree with is post-base game spirits deconfirming and no 4th party characters. The former because of the same line of logic as my Rayman explanation from earlier on in this post and the latter because that is one rule that Sakurai himself keeps on hammering home.

 

[Lionfranky]

So does "Nintendo appearance" also count as fan rule? People defend this rule with all kinds of excuse. "Oh he appeared in spin off!"
Then, we might as well just extend this reasoning and say costume or skin is enough justification for inclusion. Ex) Master Chief skin on Minecraft Switch version. Nintendo won't allow Mario skin on other versions, so that's enough reasoning for me.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

So does "Nintendo appearance" also count as fan rule? People defend this rule with all kinds of excuse. "Oh he appeared in spin off!"
Then, we might as well just extend this reasoning and say costume or skin is enough justification for inclusion. Ex) Master Chief skin on Minecraft Switch version. Nintendo won't allow Mario skin on other versions, so that's enough reasoning for me.

It was a rule that came from Nintendo themselves, but then said it wasn't really a hard rule. "A courtesy" to paraphrase. It's not really something we should take much stock in.

 

[TheCJBrine]

It was a rule that came from Nintendo themselves, but then said it wasn't really a hard rule. "A courtesy" to paraphrase. It's not really something we should take much stock in.

It came from Sakurai but yeah, he didn’t see it as a rule and otherwise only said he may have had misgivings if Cloud never appeared on one.

 

[pupNapoleon]

Here's the problem though: Your opponent saw you pick Zoroark on the character select screen. They know who you're playing as.

Though while it would be a pretty useless mechanic (unless you get tripped up by "Kirby" having humungo hitboxes), it could still be decent for flavor.

I think they could find a way to do it.
For example, in group smash- they would make the character identical to another, so which person is the real player two would be unknown.

Or maybe it starts each match where everyone on the field looks like one character, and only the Zoroark knows the one thats them.
It would take a moment to figure out for each player.


I think there is an ability to keep playing with this and give the homefield startup advantage of a real world mind-screw illusion.

 

[osby]

I still think Spring Man isn't a lock but my main problem with "protagonist first is only a fan rule" argument is that... we've been there before. Pretty much during the whole first pass.

People argued Byleth was too boring and we would get Edelgard instead. People argued Hero was too boring and we would get Slime instead. People argued Terry was too boring and we would get Nakoruru instead. Hell, even before Joker's reveal, there were SMT fans who said we would get Jack Frost instead.

I'm not saying this to shut down the discussion around any characters and I acknowledge that ARMS has a unique situation but I can also see a clear pattern. Yes, Sakurai can break fan rules but it's best to not ignore how Nintendo picked the characters before just because the main character is "boring".

 

[Twin Shot]

The Rayman talk got me thinking...

If you were Nintendo and went upto Ubisoft and asked them what franchise they wanted to have represented in Smash, who do you think Ubisoft would pick and why?

I personally can’t see anything other than an AC representative, but I think a Rayman with alt costumes representing other Ubisoft properties would be the coolest (like the AC/PoP/SC ones Rayman has in legends)

 

[Koopaul]

I don't think Rayman in the form of a costume like Sans or Cuphead will work. Something to note about the Sans and Cuphead costume: They work like mascot costumes at a theme park. You know, with the big heads and blank expressionless faces. Cuphead and Sans work because their big knoggins are proportional to the Mii fighter. Also their faces also look okay even though they don't move. But would Rayman? Think about it. Rayman would have a permanent smile and a giant head. Would that look right?

 

[Knight Dude]

I still think Spring Man isn't a lock but my main problem with "protagonist first is only a fan rule" argument is that... we've been there before. Pretty much during the whole first pass.

People argued Byleth was too boring and we would get Edelgard instead. People argued Hero was too boring and we would get Slime instead. People argued Terry was too boring and we would get Nakoruru instead. Hell, even before Joker's reveal, there were SMT fans who said we would get Jack Frost instead.

I'm not saying this to shut down the discussion around any characters and I acknowledge that ARMS has a unique situation but I can also see a clear pattern. Yes, Sakurai can break fan rules but it's best to not ignore how Nintendo picked the characters before just because the main character is "boring".

Yeah, people were really banking on that "Lady with a Bird" leak being real for Nakaruru being in before Terry. So because of that, many people were trying to shut down Terry as boring. But I'm glad that wasn't the case. Terry is a really good character, both move wise and as a character. Now there doing the same for the ARMS character, but at least this character HAS options to justify this kind of discussion, be it Spring-Man, Ribbon Girl or anyone else.

The Rayman talk got me thinking...

If you were Nintendo and went upto Ubisoft and asked them what franchise they wanted to have represented in Smash, who do you think Ubisoft would pick and why?

I personally can’t see anything other than an AC representative, but I think a Rayman with alt costumes representing other Ubisoft properties would be the coolest (like the AC/PoP/SC ones Rayman has in legends)

They made a Rayman Trophy for Smash 4 and put him in as a Spirit and got Mii content the same time as AC. So I'm inclined to say him if only because he has some semblance of content in Smash already. But AC is a bigger series in Japan I think so who knows for sure.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I think they could find a way to do it.
For example, in group smash- they would make the character identical to another, so which person is the real player two would be unknown.

Or maybe it starts each match where everyone on the field looks like one character, and only the Zoroark knows the one thats them.
It would take a moment to figure out for each player.


I think there is an ability to keep playing with this and give the homefield startup advantage of a real world mind-screw illusion.

I'm not sure that these ideas would be any fun for players since it keeps them from playing the game until they do a button check. The second one is also impossible since you can't show any information to the Zoroark player without showing everyone due to you all sharing a screen.

I do think there is a way to do it though. Attaching the ability to Pokémon Change would be the easiest way since that's how it works in the games. The question then becomes who would you pair up with Zoroark, and who would be their trainer. If you wanted Zoroark to be a solo fighter though you'd have to go back to the drawing board. Perhaps instead of disguising itself as another character it could use its illusions to mask its attacks. Like Shadow Sneak, but you either send out a harmless illusion that looks like its attacking or do a lunging attack while leaving behind an illusion that stays in place.

 

[Goombaic]

The Rayman talk got me thinking...

If you were Nintendo and went upto Ubisoft and asked them what franchise they wanted to have represented in Smash, who do you think Ubisoft would pick and why?

I personally can’t see anything other than an AC representative, but I think a Rayman with alt costumes representing other Ubisoft properties would be the coolest (like the AC/PoP/SC ones Rayman has in legends)

It really would either be Rayman or Assassin's Creed. I don't think they'd be raring to offer something from Tom Clancy's or Just Dance. Beyond Good and Evil and Watch Dogs exist as well, I guess, but those are pretty doubtful.

 

[ZephyrZ]

Honestly if I were to make a Zoroark moveset, I wouldn't complicate it with some sort of illusion gimmick. I see why others would try to, since Illusion is really gimmicky in Pokemon itself, but I just don't think it'd transfer directly into Smash. Instead I'd show Zoroark's nature as a trickster through its moveset design.

- Make its movement mobile and evasive, similar to Joker.
- Give it specials with properties designed to throw opponents off. Night Daze can flip opponents similar to Mario's Cape, Sucker Punch could work similar to Greninja's Shadow Sneak, ect.
- Give it a taunt that has it briefly disguise as a random pokemon.

Through some references to its illusion abilities in it's victory animations as well, and I think you'd convey the spirit of Zoroark fairly well.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

The Rayman talk got me thinking...

If you were Nintendo and went upto Ubisoft and asked them what franchise they wanted to have represented in Smash, who do you think Ubisoft would pick and why?

I personally can’t see anything other than an AC representative, but I think a Rayman with alt costumes representing other Ubisoft properties would be the coolest (like the AC/PoP/SC ones Rayman has in legends)

I'd say Ubisoft would pick Rayman over any other character. I don't know if it's just individual employees expressing it but they have been vocal about wanting him in Smash Bros, once with Rayman's announcement in Brawlhalla and the other with their Siri-like bot so I'd bet on Rayman.

Also Altair being a Mii costume does lower the chances of another Assassin's Creed character of being a fighter.

 

[Ben Holt]

Also Altair being a Mii costume does lower the chances of another Assassin's Creed character of being a fighter.

I dunno. My thinking was the opposite. I'm not a big Buttbuttin's Creed fan, but my nephew is, and from what I've heard, Ezio is the favorite assassin, so having Altair as a costume tells me that Ezio is slightly MORE likely to be playable.
Though I still think it's unlikely. Rayman is Ubisoft's mascot, and so far mascots have come first. We got Mega Man before Ryu and Pac-Man before Heihachi or Lloyd. I suspect we'd get Rayman before Ezio.

 

[RetroBro]

There’s a dichotomy to the usage of the term “fan rule”.

In some cases, people come up with rules that by extension make certain characters unlikely. In some cases, there are rules made up that are not based in anything.

The downside? The term “fan rule” gets thrown around to that point that even sensible ideas or arguments get shut down simply because somebody doesn’t like that it makes their most wanted potential look “unlikely”. It’s not as though one side is “bad” and one is “good”. I don’t really even think there are “sides”.

I mean, I can only speak for myself. When I suggest ideas like I have today, it’s not even really to make my pick of choice (don’t really have an ARMS pick of choice) more likely than another. I base essentially all of my predictions on some sort of train of thought or line of thinking. It doesn’t necessarily mean I’m right about everything.

At the end of the day, we are going to be at a point where we realize not all of our most wanted will be in this game. It’s just a fact. Some people will be happy, others disappointed. This is just what speculation is. Some things will make potential chances go up for characters, some things will make potential chances go down. Doom Slayer is an example of this with the recent interview that evidently shot his chances down. It happens.

Not every idea is a slant toward your most wanted. Sometimes you gotta question why you get instantly defensive, and really, just remember...we’re all here because we like the game. I don’t actually think anybody is here to hurt feelings or something.

At least, I’m not.

You are correct on many things here.

The caveat is that most people that use logic and historical moments with smash speculation, fan rules in this case, are not willing to say "I'm not right about everything."

Most people I've encountered online have HARD LINES that they draw in the sand with speculation in attempts to belittle or push people out of conversations or control what's being discussed. I think that most of the fan rules being talked about regarding ultimate were rational, but could easily be broken. And some people aren't willing to budge on that despite Sakurai having basically done what he wants for most of smash history. He had limitations from game to game. But with each one he shows that he's willing to go back on things he's said to please fans. He's willing to break the ideas of early smash iterations to improve the roster and representation. And sometimes, he just does things because he wants to.

So no amount of "Spirits can't be upgraded" or "Assist Trophies will never be characters" will convince me that they will never be characters in ultimate.

I wish people would present these ideas in the way you did here - I think the speculation would be more constructive at that point. Unfortunately, people do intend to hurt other people's feelings on this message board and other ones. I'm not particularly offended by much anymore, but in my youth I probably would've taken some more bait.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I dunno. My thinking was the opposite. I'm not a big Buttbuttin's Creed fan, but my nephew is, and from what I've heard, Ezio is the favorite assassin, so having Altair as a costume tells me that Ezio is slightly MORE likely to be playable.
Though I still think it's unlikely. Rayman is Ubisoft's mascot, and so far mascots have come first. We got Mega Man before Ryu and Pac-Man before Heihachi or Lloyd. I suspect we'd get Rayman before Ezio.

Rayman is Ubisoft's mascot only to the Nintendo fan who likes platformers and wishes Ubi still made them. He's really not, Assassin's Creed is their cash cow and has been for over a decade now whereas the average gamer hasn't even heard of Rayman. The comparison to Pac-Man and Mega Man is ridiculous.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

So that Crash mobile game has something interesting

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Crash has a look that looks crazy yet cute, a potential argument against Crash was how his design was changed in Japan to look cuter to appeal to the Japanese more, pretty sure that this official design for a worldwide game just might have found a compromise

 

[Ben Holt]

Rayman is Ubisoft's mascot only to the Nintendo fan who likes platformers and wishes Ubi still made them. He's really not, Assassin's Creed is their cash cow and has been for over a decade now whereas the average gamer hasn't even heard of Rayman. The comparison to Pac-Man and Mega Man is ridiculous.

Rayman has been far more active than Mega Man.
Cash Cow ≠ Mascot.
Capcom's cash cow is Street Fighter, but their mascot is Mega Man.
Bandai-Namco's cash cow is Tekken (At least as far as video games go. Pac-Man probably makes more in merchandise.), but Pac-Man is their mascot.
Activision's cash cow is Call of Duty, but recently, Crash Bandicoot has been their mascot.
Hell, even though Sonic is both Sega's cash cow AND mascot, Sega has started to make Sonic titles on a budget in favor of their other IPs (Which I hate. Make Sonic great again.).
So yes, Rayman is still Ubisoft's mascot despite not necessarily being their cash cow franchise.
Rayman is getting a new TV series, not Assassin's Creed or Just Dance.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Rayman isn’t getting in because of insane popularity or worldwide appeal. If he gets in it’s because he was the character that Ubisoft was pushing Nintendo to push Sakurai about. And that’s totally fine. Not every character has to be a phenomenon of out of nowhere or worldwide popular. They just have to be fun and interesting. And if Ubisoft is pushing Rayman as their Nintendo centric franchise like they did for Legends then I think it’s a good idea.

Rayman isn’t huge in Japan right now, yeah, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be. He very well can. Maybe that’s what Ubisoft and Nintendo see.

To be fair this is based on a rumor that is rather flimsy to the point I would put it on the same level as the Dante rumor. So all this is just hypothetical so to point out that Rayman getting in isn’t impossible just because he isn’t popular in Japan.

 

[Ben Holt]

Rayman isn’t getting in because of insane popularity or worldwide appeal. If he gets in it’s because he was the character that Ubisoft was pushing Nintendo to push Sakurai about. And that’s totally fine. Not every character has to be a phenomenon of out of nowhere or worldwide popular. They just have to be fun and interesting. And if Ubisoft is pushing Rayman as their Nintendo centric franchise like they did for Legends then I think it’s a good idea.

Rayman isn’t huge in Japan right now, yeah, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be. He very well can. Maybe that’s what Ubisoft and Nintendo see. So all this is just hypothetical so to point out that Rayman getting in isn’t impossible just because he isn’t popular in Japan.

To be fair this is based on a rumor that is rather flimsy to the point I would put it on the same level as the Dante rumor.

Sakurai is very aware of Rayman given the fact that he's appeared in two Smash Bros. games.
I'm not banking on him, but Rayman is definitely in the upper tier of viability for DLC.

 

[Knight Dude]

Rayman isn’t getting in because of insane popularity or worldwide appeal. If he gets in it’s because he was the character that Ubisoft was pushing Nintendo to push Sakurai about. And that’s totally fine. Not every character has to be a phenomenon of out of nowhere or worldwide popular. They just have to be fun and interesting. And if Ubisoft is pushing Rayman as their Nintendo centric franchise like they did for Legends then I think it’s a good idea.

Rayman isn’t huge in Japan right now, yeah, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be. He very well can. Maybe that’s what Ubisoft and Nintendo see.

To be fair this is based on a rumor that is rather flimsy to the point I would put it on the same level as the Dante rumor. So all this is just hypothetical so to point out that Rayman getting in isn’t impossible just because he isn’t popular in Japan.

Yeah, I do doubt Rayman's gonna happen, but I wouldn't say he has no chance(as far as characters that are Spirits, which may be a low chance). Like, despite his lack of popularity in Japan I'd have more faith in him than say, Sam Fisher.

 

[Cosmic77]

Rayman could happen, but people shouldn't overestimate his chances because of his appearances in Smash 4 and Ultimate. Every DLC third-party so far has had no presence in Smash prior to their debut.

Actually, I don't think any third-party franchise has ever had a presence in Smash before their character got in, and that includes trophies, Spirits, and Mii Costumes.

 

[PSIGuy]

Ubisoft seem very keen to play ball but Nintendo doesn't really care about that sort of thing either. Bethesda says they were turned down over Doom Guy. I guess with Banjo-Kazooie there was enough ballot noise that they figured it was worth hearing out Microsoft over including them.

 

[Plank08]

At this rate it’s pretty obvious Cacomallow is an elaborate mod IMO

didn’t some modder show it was possible to make modded hats have jiggle effects?

They all said not to that level of detail, so until proven otherwise I think it’s real.

also I kinda wish wish lists weren’t made based on how likely they are instead of how much you actually want them tbh

 

[I.D.]

The update was Smash x Fatal Fury, not Smash x King of Fighters. Terry is the main character of Fatal Fury. That's not a special case at all.

The update can say whatever it want, most of the content Terry came with was SNK games in general, not Fatal Fury. Contrast with Joker for example who came with Persona content, not Persona and Catherine and Etrian Odissey and Trauma Center.

 

[Trevenant]

They all said not to that level of detail, so until proven otherwise I think it’s real.

also I kinda wish wish lists weren’t made based on how likely they are instead of how much you actually want them tbh

But looking at what's going against it may suggest otherwise. It's been nearly half a year with no sign of them showing up, the doomguy deconfirmation doesn't help matters either. And yes I fully understand that they only deconfirmed Doom Guy but how likely is it that they'd negotiate only for a cacodemon mii hat unless the slayer was playable themselv. Maybe the slayer could be costumed but it's unlikely that they'd go to get several costumes for a series that isn't playable represented. That and if Slayer was an outfit that would have just showed it. Things being mad of a high level doesn't mean much as well. Palutena hoax from Sm4sh, grinch leak etc.

 

[HansShotFirst20]

Rayman has been far more active than Mega Man.
Cash Cow ≠ Mascot.
Capcom's cash cow is Street Fighter, but their mascot is Mega Man.
Bandai-Namco's cash cow is Tekken (At least as far as video games go. Pac-Man probably makes more in merchandise.), but Pac-Man is their mascot.
Activision's cash cow is Call of Duty, but recently, Crash Bandicoot has been their mascot.
Hell, even though Sonic is both Sega's cash cow AND mascot, Sega has started to make Sonic titles on a budget in favor of their other IPs (Which I hate. Make Sonic great again.).
So yes, Rayman is still Ubisoft's mascot despite not necessarily being their cash cow franchise.
Rayman is getting a new TV series, not Assassin's Creed or Just Dance.

>capcom's cash cow is Street Fighter

That's a feanchise that been underperforming as of late. Monster Hunter, Devil May Cry, and Resident Evil have been making them a lot more money lately.

 

[NebulaFan]

DLC characters are Min Min, Travis, Phoenix Wright, Waluigi and Toxtricity

 

[Guynamednelson]

DLC characters are Min Min, Travis, Phoenix Wright, Waluigi and Toxtricity

You could've at least remembered FP2 has six characters.

 

[Wunderwaft]

>capcom's cash cow is Street Fighter

That's a feanchise that been underperforming as of late. Monster Hunter, Devil May Cry, and Resident Evil have been making them a lot more money lately.

Especially Monster Hunter, so much so that Monster Hunter World became the best selling Capcom game of all time.

 

[DanganZilla5]

But AC is a bigger series in Japan I think so who knows for sure.

From the research I did, it seems to be that way. Odyssey in particular did pretty well in Japan and what's interesting is that it had a Switch version exclusive to Japan. I know Ubisoft sees Rayman as more of a Nintendo character in the sense that they have been putting Rayman games on Nintendo consoles for a while now, but honestly this might make Assassin's Creed tie with Rayman for the most likely Ubisoft rep since AC is their main cash cow.

Ubisoft seem very keen to play ball but Nintendo doesn't really care about that sort of thing either. Bethesda says they were turned down over Doom Guy. I guess with Banjo-Kazooie there was enough ballot noise that they figured it was worth hearing out Microsoft over including them.

This is how I feel. Ubisoft seems very honky dory to include content in Smash Bros but it seems like Sakurai isn't interested enough in a Ubisoft rep. He included Rayman as a trophy in Smash 4 and as a spirit in Ultimate, sure, but not more than that. He seems to respect Rayman and included him in some way as a symbol of Nintendo and Ubisoft's friendship, but not to the point where he wants to make him playable. Maybe Rayman just hasn't been a priority or it could be due to his lack of interest in Japan.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

But looking at what's going against it may suggest otherwise. It's been nearly half a year with no sign of them showing up, the doomguy deconfirmation doesn't help matters either. And yes I fully understand that they only deconfirmed Doom Guy but how likely is it that they'd negotiate only for a cacodemon mii hat unless the slayer was playable themselv. Maybe the slayer could be costumed but it's unlikely that they'd go to get several costumes for a series that isn't playable represented. That and if Slayer was an outfit that would have just showed it.

The Doomguy disconfirmation means nothing to any content but Doomguy playable in that context.

Sans was licensed more than a half a year from its actual costume debut. And it's pretty likely to get just a Mii costume, actually. It's a character mascot that's an easy costume for them to make. Nice simple cash. It's not remotely weird to get a costume for just the mascot(this applies to Sans too, as he's not the player character. And what several costumes? It's literally one, just the Cacodemon).

That's also not how leaks work. Leaks almost never tell all the details(...Yugioh lists aside) when it comes to video games. They're piece meals at best. With small bits. Even Smash 4 had multiple small leaks that told us details, including ones that became outdated due to changes in the main plan. That's why Chrom and a Rhythm Heaven character(it's not clear if it was Chorus Kids, but probably was. Just the actual information we have is only a leaker saying the name, and we have a playable icon only for the franchise, which doesn't lead to much) were on the list. Sakurai only didn't mention the RH character planned, but did mention Chrom planned. More importantly, he confirmed that it was a "Pokemon from X/Y" just like the Gematsu leak said. The most he might've made up or guessed is which RH character it was at best.

Here's the thing; the fact the costumes haven't shown up yet? Of course they could be fake. But it not showing up yet isn't saying much. If they got made recently as is before showing, they were just as likely not ready by Byleth. That means only the character after that was possible. ...It's literally 6 months between Byleth and ARMS. That's the reason why it's such a wait. Nothing else. Why wouldn't you wait if your only option was later on. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they were proof of concept and couldn't be used because the IP owners said no. That's also a distinct possibility. Maybe that's why they didn't come with Byleth either. They may never show up again if they were only proof of concept to begin with. Development's not just real or fake, as it can get more complicated.

Do note I'm leaning on fake due to the video not being taken down. It's reasonable evidence of it being fake, but the rest of the stuff are based more on observations. Since we know a costume can actually be in development for well over 3 months straight before being released, we know the time period doesn't honestly mean much at all. Cause, well, again, if it wasn't ready by Byleth, it was going to take a lonnnnnnnnng time. In addition to that, it could've taken a while to license as is with SE and ID Software. These things take time. Or there's just too much time between a character release to begin with, so unfortunately one leak lingers on due to that alone. It's also clear it can be faked(but nobody has come out with their own video, so that doesn't mean much. They can't actually recreate the process either, so we may never know for a long time, even if it never shows up). On the other hand, it may never show up ever even if it's proof of concept. Sakurai has to wait a while, and he can't really say things went poorly that easily. I mean, gotta keep on the company's good sides.

It's a weird situation.

 

[Spongeboob]

I feel dumb for posting this but...
SMASH LEAK MAD LIBS!!!
I've got legit insider information about the next Smash fighter. (Character) will be revealed at (big event). (Pronoun) will be released with (Location) as a part of Challenger Pack (Number) in the month of (Month + Year). Additionally, (another character) will be released as a Mii costume as a part of Wave (Same number).

Feel free to add more if you want.

Spoiler: Example

I've got legit insider information about the next Smash fighter. Dante will be revealed at the U.S. Presidential inaugration 2021. He will be released with Love Planet Mallet Island as a part of Challenger Pack 7 in the month of January 2021. Additionally, Bandana Dee will be released as a Mii costume as a part of Wave 7.

 

[Rangez]

People argued Hero was too boring and we would get Slime instead.

Funnily enough, we were most likely going to get a playable Slime had SE not allowed Sakurai and the dev team to use Hero.

 

[SNEKeater]

I'm glad I'm not the only one that thinks this. I actually think a Rayman costume would go with the ARMS character because it's a nice contrast to the ARMS Character due to no limbs


Since to our Knowledge, there are only 5 slots left, I Figure ALOT of Popular characters are gonna be Spirited or Mii Costumed, because not every character can get in. even if they did Bonus fighter, it likely won't be that much and probably won't be from completely new franchises.

I Won't be surprised if Characters like Dante, Master Chief, Doomguy, Geno, Sora, Travis, Crash Bandicoot,etc become Spirit events or Mii Costumes

Maybe it's just me but thinking about the likes of Chief, Sora or Crash getting in but as spirits doesn't make sense.

Who knows, maybe this post won't age very well but putting these characters as spirits seems very random. Besides Geno, Travis and arguably Doomguy these characters are not really associated with Nintendo, and I'd say that all of the third party spirits we got so far after Ultimate's launch had a considerable history with Nintendo.
And I really doubt anyone in this world associates Sora, Dante, Chief or Crash with Nintendo.