Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Michael the Spikester]

I Won't be surprised if Characters like Dante, Master Chief, Doomguy, Geno, Sora, Travis, Crash Bandicoot,etc become Spirit events or Mii Costumes

The only one I could see here is Travis Touchdown and Geno tbh.

The others are too big to just be spirit events especially Master Chief and Crash. Phoenix Wright would be a more likely character to get the treatment then Dante tbh as much as I hate to admit and given how highly requested Sora is I just couldn't imagine the backlash and I really doubt Nintendo would go out of their way to make negotiations with Disney just for some spirit event.

 

[Freduardo]

I feel dumb for posting this but...
SMASH LEAK MAD LIBS!!!
I've got legit insider information about the next Smash fighter. (Character) will be revealed at (big event). (Pronoun) will be released with (Location) as a part of Challenger Pack (Number) in the month of (Month + Year). Additionally, (another character) will be released as a Mii costume as a part of Wave (Same number).

Feel free to add more if you want.

Spoiler: Example

I've got legit insider information about the next Smash fighter. Dante will be revealed at the U.S. Presidential inaugration 2021. He will be released with Love Planet Mallet Island as a part of Challenger Pack 7 in the month of January 2021. Additionally, Bandana Dee will be released as a Mii costume as a part of Wave 7.

I've got legit insider information about the next Smash fighter. Bonk will be revealed at the mario maker twitter account. They will be released with a big ole turbogtafx 16 as a part of Challenger Pack eleventeen in the month of turbouary 20XX. Additionally, Gauntlet Warrior will be released as a Mii costume as a part of Wave eleventeen.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Rayman is Ubisoft's mascot only to the Nintendo fan who likes platformers and wishes Ubi still made them. He's really not, Assassin's Creed is their cash cow and has been for over a decade now whereas the average gamer hasn't even heard of Rayman. The comparison to Pac-Man and Mega Man is ridiculous.

Someone finally said it.

Even back in the Sm4sh days, every time Rayman came up on the RTC thread, everyone would go on and on about Rayman being Ubisoft's mascot, and all I could think of was "Who?" Rayman is nowhere near the level of Crash or Mega Man. And none of them can even hope to be on the 'mascot' level of Mario or Sonic.

I feel like this forum is really good at assuming that everyone has the same relationship to video games as them. "What, you don't know this character from a single console or who was locally popular 30 years ago? They're from a critically acclaimed game, so only losers who live under a rock wouldn't know them!"

If the Assassin's Creed series, which is and has been Ubi's big series for a while now, got a character, though, it'd have to be Ezio. It's weird that Altaïr got the Mii costume considering that AC is one of those few series where the first protagonist is actually pretty forgettable relative to the second one. AC has even done a crossover (sadly it was in Soul Calibur V, which was a disappointment for so many reasons), and Ezio was the character they picked. If I had to pick an Ubi character, I'd want Ezio hands down. But Ubi also has the Rabbids that they've been pushing and have even crossed over with Mario - but those got Mii costumes already as well.

I think Rayman would be the next in line for an Ubi character with the Mii costumes they've already added in, but that does beg the question of why the Ubi costumes didn't come with the Ubi character...

 

[TechPowah]

i apologize for bringing this up from however long ago, just now got caught up in the thread
with that in mind

If I showed this picture to any random person, would they know what game it is?

i would assume yes actually
because of the eternal misconception that Red = Ash
and also because he's holding a Poke Ball

 

[Trevenant]

The Doomguy disconfirmation means nothing to any content but Doomguy playable in that context.

Sans was licensed more than a half a year from its actual costume debut. And it's pretty likely to get just a Mii costume, actually. It's a character mascot that's an easy costume for them to make. Nice simple cash. It's not remotely weird to get a costume for just the mascot(this applies to Sans too, as he's not the player character. And what several costumes? It's literally one, just the Cacodemon).

That's also not how leaks work. Leaks almost never tell all the details(...Yugioh lists aside) when it comes to video games. They're piece meals at best. With small bits. Even Smash 4 had multiple small leaks that told us details, including ones that became outdated due to changes in the main plan. That's why Chrom and a Rhythm Heaven character(it's not clear if it was Chorus Kids, but probably was. Just the actual information we have is only a leaker saying the name, and we have a playable icon only for the franchise, which doesn't lead to much) were on the list. Sakurai only didn't mention the RH character planned, but did mention Chrom planned. More importantly, he confirmed that it was a "Pokemon from X/Y" just like the Gematsu leak said. The most he might've made up or guessed is which RH character it was at best.

Here's the thing; the fact the costumes haven't shown up yet? Of course they could be fake. But it not showing up yet isn't saying much. If they got made recently as is before showing, they were just as likely not ready by Byleth. That means only the character after that was possible. ...It's literally 6 months between Byleth and ARMS. That's the reason why it's such a wait. Nothing else. Why wouldn't you wait if your only option was later on. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they were proof of concept and couldn't be used because the IP owners said no. That's also a distinct possibility. Maybe that's why they didn't come with Byleth either. They may never show up again if they were only proof of concept to begin with. Development's not just real or fake, as it can get more complicated.

Do note I'm leaning on fake due to the video not being taken down. It's reasonable evidence of it being fake, but the rest of the stuff are based more on observations. Since we know a costume can actually be in development for well over 3 months straight before being released, we know the time period doesn't honestly mean much at all. Cause, well, again, if it wasn't ready by Byleth, it was going to take a lonnnnnnnnng time. In addition to that, it could've taken a while to license as is with SE and ID Software. These things take time. Or there's just too much time between a character release to begin with, so unfortunately one leak lingers on due to that alone. It's also clear it can be faked(but nobody has come out with their own video, so that doesn't mean much. They can't actually recreate the process either, so we may never know for a long time, even if it never shows up). On the other hand, it may never show up ever even if it's proof of concept. Sakurai has to wait a while, and he can't really say things went poorly that easily. I mean, gotta keep on the company's good sides.

It's a weird situation.

I am aware that they won't show all the details, that's why I believe i phrased it in a way which suggested that they couldve just shown a doom slayer mii outfit. I find it hard to believe that they'd make a cacodemon mii outfit but not do one for Doom Slayer. I have never seen anyone regard the cacodemon as the mascot of Doom and unless doom slayer is making a playable debut (which he is confirmed not to) I don't think they'd add 2 outfits from the series. I guess virtua fighter could be argued but Sega were actually playably represented as a company so not really. Either way I don't really think. Now that I think about it, I think them not being taken down practically kills the leak in my eyes. People have said Nintendo didn't do it to not make it obvious it's real but I think the same could be said for the ESRB leak yet that was taken down. And I also pointed out that Doom content itself wasn't deconfirmed but I still think it's a longshot that we get DOOM representation without the slayer. They could have just showed the slayer instead if he were to get one but they didnt. I'm not really sure, if I just change my points so they make more sense and I keep my stance on it being fake, the outcome would still remain and it wouldn't matter much in the long run.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Someone finally said it.

Even back in the Sm4sh days, every time Rayman came up on the RTC thread, everyone would go on and on about Rayman being Ubisoft's mascot, and all I could think of was "Who?" Rayman is nowhere near the level of Crash or Mega Man. And none of them can even hope to be on the 'mascot' level of Mario or Sonic.

I feel like this forum is really good at assuming that everyone has the same relationship to video games as them. "What, you don't know this character from a single console or who was locally popular 30 years ago? They're from a critically acclaimed game, so only losers who live under a rock wouldn't know them!"

If the Assassin's Creed series, which is and has been Ubi's big series for a while now, got a character, though, it'd have to be Ezio. It's weird that Altaïr got the Mii costume considering that AC is one of those few series where the first protagonist is actually pretty forgettable relative to the second one. AC has even done a crossover (sadly it was in Soul Calibur V, which was a disappointment for so many reasons), and Ezio was the character they picked. If I had to pick an Ubi character, I'd want Ezio hands down. But Ubi also has the Rabbids that they've been pushing and have even crossed over with Mario - but those got Mii costumes already as well.

I think Rayman would be the next in line for an Ubi character with the Mii costumes they've already added in, but that does beg the question of why the Ubi costumes didn't come with the Ubi character...

I'm the opposite. I'd rather it not be Ezio since I've never touched an Assassin's Creed game.

I still think Rayman has a chance since Assassin's Creed doesn't seem to have much traction on Nintendo consoles. The only one that I know of that is on Switch is a port of what seems to have been labeled as "the bad one". Though I suppose that could be the reason for picking Ezio instead as well. *shrugs*

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I'm the opposite. I'd rather it not be Ezio since I've never touched an Assassin's Creed game.

I still think Rayman has a chance since Assassin's Creed doesn't seem to have much traction on Nintendo consoles. The only one that I know of that is on Switch is a port of what seems to have been labeled as "the bad one". Though I suppose that could be the reason for picking Ezio instead as well. *shrugs*

AssCreed still got games on the Wii, DS and Wii U iirc so at the same time there's SOME prevelance, more than what Cloud had at the time, which was just cameos

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I am aware that they won't show all the details, that's why I believe i phrased it in a way which suggested that they couldve just shown a doom slayer mii outfit. I find it hard to believe that they'd make a cacodemon mii outfit but not do one for Doom Slayer. I have never seen anyone regard the cacodemon as the mascot of Doom and unless doom slayer is making a playable debut (which he is confirmed not to) I don't think they'd add 2 outfits from the series. I guess virtua fighter could be argued but Sega were actually playably represented as a company so not really. Either way I don't really think. Now that I think about it, I think them not being taken down practically kills the leak in my eyes. People have said Nintendo didn't do it to not make it obvious it's real but I think the same could be said for the ESRB leak yet that was taken down. And I also pointed out that Doom content itself wasn't deconfirmed but I still think it's a longshot that we get DOOM representation without the slayer. They could have just showed the slayer instead if he were to get one but they didnt. I'm not really sure, if I just change my points so they make more sense and I keep my stance on it being fake, the outcome would still remain and it wouldn't matter much in the long run.

Doomslayer doesn't remotely need some Mii outfit either. If they said no to him playable, he was not in a magically better position for that.

And Cacodemon is the animal-esque mascot of Doom. Always has been. He's the Slime/Pikachu/etc. of the franchise. He's not the protagonist-based mascot. Monster mascots exist too.

I think the issue is you're trying to make patterns out of nothing. We already got stuff like trophies and eventually AT's from series unrepresented. That should already be some evidence that they choose what they feel is right.

And the lack of the video takedown is really the only good point against it. Mind you, I highly doubt there's weird reason it's not taken down yet. Even if it was proof of concept, it still should fall under NDA issues(albeit, to be fair, NDA's aren't all the same, but still). It's soft evidence against it due solely to precedence. Yes, Nintendo has changed parts of management(oddly around the same time it leaked, but hey, coincidence for good timing for a fake).

It's not a longshot whatsoever. Using the monster mascot for just the MIi costume is very logical. Id Software isn't like Square-Enix. Just having the Cacodemon costume would easily be a good way to promote the latest Doom guys without issues. But that's also first on Nintendo wanting the costumes. If they couldn't agree to use Doomslayer(which is pretty likely the overall case), the second option for a simple costume makes a ton of sense. They chose Altair, not Ezio, the less important one, as a costume too, which does say something. And no, Ubisoft having a Rayman trophy(and spirit) doesn't mean anything either. Their biggest series is promoted via the lesser character. That says something.

Protagonist/mascot first(well, main character first is way more accurate) is just a thing for playable. It doesn't affect anything else as is, even as a fan rule. There's no reason to believe it inherently applies to any kind of representation.

Though it's safe to say you get my point about "it taking forever to appear" doesn't mean much in this situation, then?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

But looking at what's going against it may suggest otherwise. It's been nearly half a year with no sign of them showing up, the doomguy deconfirmation doesn't help matters either. And yes I fully understand that they only deconfirmed Doom Guy but how likely is it that they'd negotiate only for a cacodemon mii hat unless the slayer was playable themselv. Maybe the slayer could be costumed but it's unlikely that they'd go to get several costumes for a series that isn't playable represented. That and if Slayer was an outfit that would have just showed it. Things being mad of a high level doesn't mean much as well. Palutena hoax from Sm4sh, grinch leak etc.

I've been avoiding this topic for a while since this is my touchy subject...

I haven't been looking into leaks - I think I actually prefer not seeing them to be honest. But this one looks good. I dunno if it's legit, but it is one of those things that scares me that it might be, so I'm kinda expecting it to be true. They've still got a few Mii costumes from the Sm4sh era that are still lost (Geno, Heihachi, Lloyd, MonHun, Gil), so we don't know when those'll come, so I'm not taking 'it hasn't shown up yet' as an excuse. I'm sure it's easier to make Mii costumes, so they're probably holding them until the respective characters come out.

I'm still on 'team NDA' about the Doomguy interview, although I haven't really read it carefully since I'm trying to avoid leaks or rumors (and doing a bad job at that). It seems to make so much sense to bring in Doomguy with Cacodemon. Yes, the Cacodemons are iconic Doom enemies, but are they that big as to come without him playable? Or to come with a Doomguy costume? I guess he'd fit a gunner, but that would be nowhere near the level of Cuphead/Sans since Doomguy doesn't have chibi proportions like they do. Then again, just throwing a Mii into OD green armor wouldn't scream "DOOM!" in the same way Caco would, so maybe that's it as well...

Or, the alternative that I'd favor...what if it were true, but they put Caco in as a costume with a different Bethesda character. Considering how much of a hive mind the Smash speculation scene is, people like to forget that Bethesda makes more games than just Doom. And while a Doomguy Mii costume may look disproportionate, a Vault Boy Mii costume would look great. And I know precisely who I'd favor as the character... (And for everyone who thinks that they're a literally who, just remember that it's a critically acclaimed game and did show up on Nintendo. You know, the same arguments people use to say why Joker was the most obvious addition...)

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I've been avoiding this topic for a while since this is my touchy subject...

I haven't been looking into leaks - I think I actually prefer not seeing them to be honest. But this one looks good. I dunno if it's legit, but it is one of those things that scares me that it might be, so I'm kinda expecting it to be true. They've still got a few Mii costumes from the Sm4sh era that are still lost (Geno, Heihachi, Lloyd, MonHun, Gil), so we don't know when those'll come, so I'm not taking 'it hasn't shown up yet' as an excuse. I'm sure it's easier to make Mii costumes, so they're probably holding them until the respective characters come out.

I'm still on 'team NDA' about the Doomguy interview, although I haven't really read it carefully since I'm trying to avoid leaks or rumors (and doing a bad job at that). It seems to make so much sense to bring in Doomguy with Cacodemon. Yes, the Cacodemons are iconic Doom enemies, but are they that big as to come without him playable? Or to come with a Doomguy costume? I guess he'd fit a gunner, but that would be nowhere near the level of Cuphead/Sans since Doomguy doesn't have chibi proportions like they do. Then again, just throwing a Mii into OD green armor wouldn't scream "DOOM!" in the same way Caco would, so maybe that's it as well...

Or, the alternative that I'd favor...what if it were true, but they put Caco in as a costume with a different Bethesda character. Considering how much of a hive mind the Smash speculation scene is, people like to forget that Bethesda makes more games than just Doom. And while a Doomguy Mii costume may look disproportionate, a Vault Boy Mii costume would look great. And I know precisely who I'd favor as the character... (And for everyone who thinks that they're a literally who, just remember that it's a critically acclaimed game and did show up on Nintendo. You know, the same arguments people use to say why Joker was the most obvious addition...)

Pretty sure that the only people who'd call Dragonborn 'literally who' were upset at Joker joining the game and went "LITERALLY WHO I HAVE HAD NO INTERNET FOR 2 YEARS!"

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

AssCreed still got games on the Wii, DS and Wii U iirc so at the same time there's SOME prevelance, more than what Cloud had at the time, which was just cameos

I did a quick search, and it seems like Assassin's Creed has like, 5 games on Nintendo's consoles. Compared to the 6 mainline and kajillion spinoff titles Final Fantasy has, I'd say that Final Fantasy had way more of a market than Assassin's Creed does.

But again, it's unclear whether this means they'd want to expand the series's reach or try to get the Rayman series back on its feet.

(And for everyone who thinks that they're a literally who, just remember that it's a critically acclaimed game and did show up on Nintendo. You know, the same arguments people use to say why Joker was the most obvious addition...)

This game is just as popular as it was in 2011. 2011. It's a single player game that's lasted 8 years. No person in their right mind should be writing this game off as obscure.

 

[osby]

I did a quick search, and it seems like Assassin's Creed has like, 5 games on Nintendo's consoles. Compared to the 6 mainline and kajillion spinoff titles Final Fantasy has, I'd say that Final Fantasy had way more of a market than Assassin's Creed does.

I mean, it's still more than Persona's 3 spin-off games.

 

[Garteam]

I would be incredibly surprised if someone pulled the "literal who" card with Dragonborn. Skyrim is the 20th best-selling game of all time and is often reference in mainstream pop culture. I could see how someone missed Joker, seeing how his game sold a comparatively small 3 million copies and was mostly talked about in hardcore gaming circles, but not knowing Dragonborn is more like not knowing Ryu or Cloud.

 

[Athurcaounet]

https://m.imgur.com/a/0Dx0Rh7

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I did a quick search, and it seems like Assassin's Creed has like, 5 games on Nintendo's consoles. Compared to the 6 mainline and kajillion spinoff titles Final Fantasy has, I'd say that Final Fantasy had way more of a market than Assassin's Creed does.

But again, it's unclear whether this means they'd want to expand the series's reach or try to get the Rayman series back on its feet.


This game is just as popular as it was in 2011. 2011. It's a single player game that's lasted 8 years. No person in their right mind should be writing this game off as obscure.

Sakurai said he might have had misgivings if Cloud hadn't appeared on Nintendo consoles, meaning he was looking at FF7, not FF as a whole, ergo, Sakurai felt that cameos in Chain of Memories and Theatrhythm were enough

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Rayman is Ubisoft's mascot only to the Nintendo fan who likes platformers and wishes Ubi still made them. He's really not, Assassin's Creed is their cash cow and has been for over a decade now whereas the average gamer hasn't even heard of Rayman. The comparison to Pac-Man and Mega Man is ridiculous.

Someone finally said it.

Even back in the Sm4sh days, every time Rayman came up on the RTC thread, everyone would go on and on about Rayman being Ubisoft's mascot, and all I could think of was "Who?" Rayman is nowhere near the level of Crash or Mega Man. And none of them can even hope to be on the 'mascot' level of Mario or Sonic.

I feel like this forum is really good at assuming that everyone has the same relationship to video games as them. "What, you don't know this character from a single console or who was locally popular 30 years ago? They're from a critically acclaimed game, so only losers who live under a rock wouldn't know them!"

If the Assassin's Creed series, which is and has been Ubi's big series for a while now, got a character, though, it'd have to be Ezio. It's weird that Altaïr got the Mii costume considering that AC is one of those few series where the first protagonist is actually pretty forgettable relative to the second one. AC has even done a crossover (sadly it was in Soul Calibur V, which was a disappointment for so many reasons), and Ezio was the character they picked. If I had to pick an Ubi character, I'd want Ezio hands down. But Ubi also has the Rabbids that they've been pushing and have even crossed over with Mario - but those got Mii costumes already as well.

I think Rayman would be the next in line for an Ubi character with the Mii costumes they've already added in, but that does beg the question of why the Ubi costumes didn't come with the Ubi character...

But this is just the same argument used against Banjo & Kazooie though. Being the higher grossing franchise doesn't mean Assassin's Creed would take priority over Rayman as the character Ubisoft would choose.

 

[Will]

I would be incredibly surprised if someone pulled the "literal who" card with Dragonborn. Skyrim is the 20th best-selling game of all time and is often reference in mainstream pop culture. I could see how someone missed Joker, seeing how his game sold a comparatively small 3 million copies and was mostly talked about in hardcore gaming circles, but not knowing Dragonborn is more like not knowing Ryu or Cloud.

dragonwho? sorry, i don't play your nerdy irrelevant western medieval games

now if you excuse me, i have to go back to fire emblem: three houses on my nintendo switch /s

https://m.imgur.com/a/0Dx0Rh7

caption says uploaded literally 21 minutes ago

it's a good render but you could do better with how you make your fake leak, like don't zoom all the way in.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I mean, it's still more than Persona's 3 spin-off games.

?

I could have sworn I saw Persona 4 on the e-shop. Must have been Persona Q or something.

But that still doesn't change the fact that Assassin's Creed isn't that big within the realm of Nintendo (unless there's a popular game I'm unaware of, which is highly likely to be honest). I think this reason makes Rayman still possible, but it still depends on what Ubisoft wants.

Sakurai said he might have had misgivings if Cloud hadn't appeared on Nintendo consoles, meaning he was looking at FF7, not FF as a whole, ergo, Sakurai felt that cameos in Chain of Memories and Theatrhythm were enough

I'm not saying that Ezio can't or shouldn't be in Super Smash Bros. because of his lack of appearances on Nintendo consoles. I'm saying that the series seemingly low popularity on Nintendo's consoles would be the reason that they pick Rayman over Ezio.

But again, it's unclear whether this means they'd want to expand the series's reach or try to get the Rayman series back on its feet.

 

[osby]

I would be incredibly surprised if someone pulled the "literal who" card with Dragonborn. Skyrim is the 20th best-selling game of all time and is often reference in mainstream pop culture. I could see how someone missed Joker, seeing how his game sold a comparatively small 3 million copies and was mostly talked about in hardcore gaming circles, but not knowing Dragonborn is more like not knowing Ryu or Cloud.

Hello, you must be new to the Smash fandom.

 

[Will]

Hello, you must be new to the Smash fandom.

Remember that one Ashley fan that was ****ting on Castlevania?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

https://m.imgur.com/a/0Dx0Rh7

Fake.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Remember that one Ashley fan that was ****ting on Castlevania?

He's right. It is a joke. And it's on him.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I would be incredibly surprised if someone pulled the "literal who" card with Dragonborn. Skyrim is the 20th best-selling game of all time and is often reference in mainstream pop culture. I could see how someone missed Joker, seeing how his game sold a comparatively small 3 million copies and was mostly talked about in hardcore gaming circles, but not knowing Dragonborn is more like not knowing Ryu or Cloud.

Watch Cacomallow is indeed real and coming along with Dragonborn is an Doom Slayer Mii costume alongside Cacomallow.

 

[chocolatejr9]

But this is just the same argument used against Banjo & Kazooie though. Being the higher grossing franchise doesn't mean Assassin's Creed would take priority over Rayman as the character Ubisoft would choose.

Weird question, but when exactly did Rayman become a popular request? Because people have been asking for Banjo since arguably the first game, and that could be the main difference.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

?

I could have sworn I saw Persona 4 on the e-shop. Must have been Persona Q or something.

But that still doesn't change the fact that Assassin's Creed isn't that big within the realm of Nintendo (unless there's a popular game I'm unaware of, which is highly likely to be honest). I think this reason makes Rayman still possible, but it still depends on what Ubisoft wants.


I'm not saying that Ezio can't or shouldn't be in Super Smash Bros. because of his lack of appearances on Nintendo consoles. I'm saying that the series seemingly low popularity on Nintendo's consoles would be the reason that they pick Rayman over Ezio.

I was only addressing the point of how FF being on Nintendo back in the day didn't matter


Also flashbacks to Smash 4 when people argued Pacman wasn't iconic

 

[SmashChu]

While there are certainly a lot more important and requested third party franchises and I'm sure we are still getting some more, the thing is that third parties took over the first fighters pass by storm with only one new first party character. For the second fighters pass, we already got the confirmation of an ARMS character. Perhaps this is the time that Nintendo and Sakurai looked back at first parties and it just so happens that some of the most glaring and requested first party characters left (Waluigi, Isaac, Skull Kid, etc) are assist trophies. What I'm getting at is that this the biggest chance that assist trophies have ever had, especially since ARMS was announced and Spring Man is the mascot of the game. Same with base game spirits, plus the fact that Lucas and I think Mewtwo had trophies in Smash 4 before they became playable and that line of thinking could reasonably be applied to spirits too.

So the big picture here is that fan rules can be true, but they also need to adapt to new circumstances. Just because assist trophies and spirits were deconfirmations for the first fighters pass, that doesn't mean the same is true for the second fighters pass. Personally the only fan rules I agree with is post-base game spirits deconfirming and no 4th party characters. The former because of the same line of logic as my Rayman explanation from earlier on in this post and the latter because that is one rule that Sakurai himself keeps on hammering home.

I mostly agree with your post, and I think the costumes and spirits don't matter, but there are some issues with Assist Trophies. Spirits are in the background and there plenty of costumes of characters in the game. Assist Trophies are a bit different. They are a bigger part of the game and something you see more often. They are also characters that are "in" the game already. So it seems redundant to have an assist trophy also be a character. Also, you have to figure out how to have the assist and the character. The only assist with two roles is Rathalos, who is a boss and an assist. The thing is he can't appear as both at any time. But when you have a character thats an assist trophy, they can appear together. So can the Waluigi assist trophy appear with the Waluigi character. What happens to the assist trophy if you don't have the DLC (say, if Spring Man gets in, is the assist always Springtron or sometimes Springtron).

Obviously, none of this is impossible. The obvious solution is to not have the assist when the character is out there. But this does affect the pool of assist that can appear. I figure there may be one assist that gets upgraded but I think this will be a special circumstance. I figure it will be Waluigi because they know its a character that people will get excited over. It's a good E3 type character.

That's also not how leaks work. Leaks almost never tell all the details(...Yugioh lists aside) when it comes to video games. They're piece meals at best. With small bits. Even Smash 4 had multiple small leaks that told us details, including ones that became outdated due to changes in the main plan. That's why Chrom and a Rhythm Heaven character(it's not clear if it was Chorus Kids, but probably was. Just the actual information we have is only a leaker saying the name, and we have a playable icon only for the franchise, which doesn't lead to much) were on the list. Sakurai only didn't mention the RH character planned, but did mention Chrom planned. More importantly, he confirmed that it was a "Pokemon from X/Y" just like the Gematsu leak said. The most he might've made up or guessed is which RH character it was at best.

Here's the thing; the fact the costumes haven't shown up yet? Of course they could be fake. But it not showing up yet isn't saying much. If they got made recently as is before showing, they were just as likely not ready by Byleth. That means only the character after that was possible. ...It's literally 6 months between Byleth and ARMS. That's the reason why it's such a wait. Nothing else. Why wouldn't you wait if your only option was later on. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they were proof of concept and couldn't be used because the IP owners said no. That's also a distinct possibility. Maybe that's why they didn't come with Byleth either. They may never show up again if they were only proof of concept to begin with. Development's not just real or fake, as it can get more complicated.

I think you aren't really considering the time factor and giving it the benefit of the doubt.

This rumor came out in November just before Terry's reveal. We've had two more Mii Fighter packs since then. Now, if these costumes were suppose to be released with the character, they would be, at the earliest, Fighter Pass 7 and 8 (as it wont come with the ARMS one potentially). If we assume its two months till the next fighter, then the soonest they would be released is August. That would put it at about 9 months since they were "leaked". Do we really beleive they were working on these Mii Fighter costumes for three-fourths of a year? Even if we assume a delay (and these were for E3 2020) thats still 7 months and there would, theoretically, be a new Mii Fighter pack before that.

Which brings up the other issue. Nothing in that leaks has been confirmed true. None of the other 10 Mii Fighter costumes were shown. So it seems odd that we wouldn't see any of the costumes they were working on and released before these two.

And of course, all of this is assuming we even still get Mii Fighter costumes. The 5th set may have been the last one. Nintendo hasn't confirmed that they are still working on those. So I think it's safe to say that it's not true given the timeframe.

Someone finally said it.

Even back in the Sm4sh days, every time Rayman came up on the RTC thread, everyone would go on and on about Rayman being Ubisoft's mascot, and all I could think of was "Who?" Rayman is nowhere near the level of Crash or Mega Man. And none of them can even hope to be on the 'mascot' level of Mario or Sonic.

I feel like this forum is really good at assuming that everyone has the same relationship to video games as them. "What, you don't know this character from a single console or who was locally popular 30 years ago? They're from a critically acclaimed game, so only losers who live under a rock wouldn't know them!"

If the Assassin's Creed series, which is and has been Ubi's big series for a while now, got a character, though, it'd have to be Ezio. It's weird that Altaïr got the Mii costume considering that AC is one of those few series where the first protagonist is actually pretty forgettable relative to the second one. AC has even done a crossover (sadly it was in Soul Calibur V, which was a disappointment for so many reasons), and Ezio was the character they picked. If I had to pick an Ubi character, I'd want Ezio hands down. But Ubi also has the Rabbids that they've been pushing and have even crossed over with Mario - but those got Mii costumes already as well.

I think Rayman would be the next in line for an Ubi character with the Mii costumes they've already added in, but that does beg the question of why the Ubi costumes didn't come with the Ubi character...

Rayman is an odd character. He never really had a lot of support until they showed off the Rayman trophy in Smash 4. Then everyone assumed he would be in. I think what people forget is that a big reason Rayman is in Smash 4 and Ultimate at all is because Nintendo published Legends in Japan. Same is true of Shovel Knight. I think this is also why his popularity is waning. And you're totally right. Rayman is not their biggest series, or even the most recognizable one. It's Assassin's Creed. It's a far bigger series and its one that people would instantly recognize. Even the Rabbids have taken the "mascot" role from Rayman.

On the costumes, the obvious answer is they were planned separately from Vol 2. A lot of this stuff was likely done during planning. But then it means that Nintendo and Sakurai were fine with just having Ubisoft costumes over having a Ubisoft character,

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Also flashbacks to Smash 4 when people argued Pacman wasn't iconic

I'm also not arguing that the Assassin's Creed series as a whole isn't insanely popular either. Just that Nintendo gamers don't seem to be a part of that audience for the most part.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I'm also not arguing that the Assassin's Creed series as a whole isn't insanely popular either. Just that Nintendo gamers don't seem to be a part of that audience for the most part.

I hit Enter a few times because that wasn't meant to be about your post, but rather because of all the posts addressing 'literally who' on Dragonborn, Smash fans will always do that ****

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I hit Enter a few times because that wasn't meant to be about your post, but rather because of all the posts addressing 'literally who' on Dragonborn, Smash fans will always do that ****

Oh ok. I thought it was an addendum to your response; A separate thought related to the first.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Also flashbacks to Smash 4 when people argued Pacman wasn't iconic

I remember that. Man, Smash speculation puts people in weird places.

That's one of the reasons I really have no idea where to start when trying to think about the next 5. The DLC characters may be good ideas in retrospect, but most came out of nowhere at the time. For these next five, if Nintendo is picking the DLC again, I don't know where they'd want to go.

Fan-requests? Promotional? Thanks-for-supporting-Nintendo picks?

We can sit and plan all day about who we think is likely because of that got taken down or who's speaking in NDA speak, but I don't know how to predict the DLC here. All I can do is hold on and hope for the best.

...and we'll likely get FP7 revealed during the E3 direct, but that'll be for a September-ish release. Maybe. If they get released every 3-4 months or so, that'll take us up to about Dec. 2021

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

So I listened to some Minecraft music recently, and it really helped calm me down. It's probably the first series who's music has done that, and I don't even play Minecraft. So, now I have a question: If they add a Minecraft character or stage, how do you think they'll handle Sweden? It seems to be Minecraft's most well known piece, but it's incredibly soothing like The Roost rather than being a good battle theme like they've been trying to go for. Do you think they'll leave it alone or try to make it into something more up beat or have both the original and remixed tracks?

Right now, I'm kinda hoping the original track gets in in this hypothetical scenario.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I think you aren't really considering the time factor and giving it the benefit of the doubt.

This rumor came out in November just before Terry's reveal. We've had two more Mii Fighter packs since then. Now, if these costumes were suppose to be released with the character, they would be, at the earliest, Fighter Pass 7 and 8 (as it wont come with the ARMS one potentially). If we assume its two months till the next fighter, then the soonest they would be released is August. That would put it at about 9 months since they were "leaked". Do we really beleive they were working on these Mii Fighter costumes for three-fourths of a year? Even if we assume a delay (and these were for E3 2020) thats still 7 months and there would, theoretically, be a new Mii Fighter pack before that.

You mean that it wasn't ready by Byleth? If it's not ready by Byleth then it doesn't matter how long it exists for. It cannot release outside of the next character. The timespan stopped mattering at that point. They aren't "sitting on it". They weren't ready by Byleth.

Which brings up the other issue. Nothing in that leaks has been confirmed true. None of the other 10 Mii Fighter costumes were shown. So it seems odd that we wouldn't see any of the costumes they were working on and released before these two.

Those weren't parts of the leak so they don't matter. Again, not how leaks work. They do not always tell everything. They are pieces of the whole thing. But that's also why I lean on it never being more than proof of concept if it's remotely real.

And of course, all of this is assuming we even still get Mii Fighter costumes. The 5th set may have been the last one. Nintendo hasn't confirmed that they are still working on those. So I think it's safe to say that it's not true given the timeframe.

This sounds more highly unrealistic. Why would they stop? Yes, sure, they haven't confirmed Echoes are possible either for the pass. But it's pretty reasonable to believe they wouldn't take a whole pack, due to how easy they are. And obviously bonus fighters are highly unrealistic too. There's actually good reasons to believe some of this. The best they said is that the Challenger Packs are following generally the same formula(they didn't actually confirm spirit events either. But it's pretty obvious they won't skip out on them since Spirit Events still exist as is).

Also, they literally made a pre-purchase DLC Mii Fighter costume. They aren't "done" by that alone. There's literally zero reason to believe they're done with costumes when it's literally part of the Pass by design.

As for your "Terry" bit, let's remember one hard thing; this was leaked well after Terry and Byleth were recorded. It's impossible they were ready by Byleth. They can't release them by Byleth. The earliest has to be after Byleth. Mii Costumes have not been DLC beyond being presented with a Challenger Pack. So it was ARMS or nothing with timeframes fully in mind. There wasn't some magical other chance in reality. This doesn't mean they're real, but it takes as long as CP6 comes out at its latest.

As I went over before, the fact the video wasn't taken down is the only strong evidence, and it does soft disconfirm them. Main thing is we can't really say everything would be the same int his situation. There's a lot of weird timing here. It leaked right after a change in management as is for Nintendo. We don't know how NDA's for proof of concept actually work in this case. I still lean on it being "nope, can't leak" too, don't get me wrong. But that's why it's the only good point because I do agree it's strange.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I personally maintain that if Cacomallow were real they would have dropped with Byleth, as the original Cacomallow video was I think some time after Terry’s reveal. And nothing.

 

[Trevenant]

I would be incredibly surprised if someone pulled the "literal who" card with Dragonborn. Skyrim is the 20th best-selling game of all time and is often reference in mainstream pop culture. I could see how someone missed Joker, seeing how his game sold a comparatively small 3 million copies and was mostly talked about in hardcore gaming circles, but not knowing Dragonborn is more like not knowing Ryu or Cloud.

isn't this the same fandom that yelled literal who at characters like Hero who nearly singlehandedly pioneered a genre and is as large as Mario is in Japan? Trust me, whenever the fan base sees a character who isn't their most wanted, they'll cry wolf all they want just out of spite for the character robbing one of their most wanted. They may think it will have an effect on the outcome but it inevitably won't.

Doomslayer doesn't remotely need some Mii outfit either. If they said no to him playable, he was not in a magically better position for that.

And Cacodemon is the animal-esque mascot of Doom. Always has been. He's the Slime/Pikachu/etc. of the franchise. He's not the protagonist-based mascot. Monster mascots exist too.

I think the issue is you're trying to make patterns out of nothing. We already got stuff like trophies and eventually AT's from series unrepresented. That should already be some evidence that they choose what they feel is right.

And the lack of the video takedown is really the only good point against it. Mind you, I highly doubt there's weird reason it's not taken down yet. Even if it was proof of concept, it still should fall under NDA issues(albeit, to be fair, NDA's aren't all the same, but still). It's soft evidence against it due solely to precedence. Yes, Nintendo has changed parts of management(oddly around the same time it leaked, but hey, coincidence for good timing for a fake).

It's not a longshot whatsoever. Using the monster mascot for just the MIi costume is very logical. Id Software isn't like Square-Enix. Just having the Cacodemon costume would easily be a good way to promote the latest Doom guys without issues. But that's also first on Nintendo wanting the costumes. If they couldn't agree to use Doomslayer(which is pretty likely the overall case), the second option for a simple costume makes a ton of sense. They chose Altair, not Ezio, the less important one, as a costume too, which does say something. And no, Ubisoft having a Rayman trophy(and spirit) doesn't mean anything either. Their biggest series is promoted via the lesser character. That says something.

Protagonist/mascot first(well, main character first is way more accurate) is just a thing for playable. It doesn't affect anything else as is, even as a fan rule. There's no reason to believe it inherently applies to any kind of representation.

Though it's safe to say you get my point about "it taking forever to appear" doesn't mean much in this situation, then?

That's a long post anyway. Yeah I think I do get most of the points. Some I agree with others not so much but in the end we are at the very least on the fake side of things although maybe not completely. I don't really think I was trying to make patterns just moreso what I thought made sense. But nonetheless I'm 99% sure the leak is fake at this point.

 

[KillerCage]

Weird question, but when exactly did Rayman become a popular request? Because people have been asking for Banjo since arguably the first game, and that could be the main difference.

You thank the "Rayman Leak" during Smash 4's DLC period for Rayman's popularity.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I personally maintain that if Cacomallow were real they would have dropped with Byleth, as the original Cacomallow video was I think some time after Terry’s reveal. And nothing.

It wasn't. It was after his outright presentation. Byleth was recorded at about the same time. They were still in development and wouldn't release with Byleth either in this case. The timeframe favors it to be ready for CP6 instead. Well, if it's real(which is probably not the case).

That's a long post anyway. Yeah I think I do get most of the points. Some I agree with others not so much but in the end we are at the very least on the fake side of things although maybe not completely. I don't really think I was trying to make patterns just moreso what I thought made sense. But nonetheless I'm 99% sure the leak is fake at this point.

I'm 90% now. But that's due to the video stuff. The rest really doesn't strike me as a good reason to dismiss it. Timeframes actually show a good reason for the costumes not to release yet. I wonder if ARMS was outright delayed too, which just makes it all worse.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

isn't this the same fandom that yelled literal who at characters like Hero who nearly singlehandedly pioneered a genre and is as large as Mario is in Japan? Trust me, whenever the fan base sees a character who isn't there most wanted, they'll cry wolf all they want just out of spite for the character robbing one of their most wanted. They may think it will have an effect on the outcome but it inevitably won't.

That's a long post anyway. Yeah I think I do get most of the points. Some I agree with others not so much but in the end we are at the very least on the fake side of things although maybe not completely. I don't really think I was trying to make patterns just moreso what I thought made sense. But nonetheless I'm 99% sure the leak is fake at this point.

Those very people then claimed they had never heard of the Slime either, what makes i better as that those people wanted 'Nintendo relevant' characters when Nintendo Power literally gave out free copies of the first Dragon Quest game, I don't feel it can get that much more Nintendo relevant

 

[Rie Sonomura]

https://m.imgur.com/a/0Dx0Rh7

Looks like it was lifted right from the start of an ARMS match where Min Min is your selected character

 

[Deleted member]

So I listened to some Minecraft music recently, and it really helped calm me down. It's probably the first series who's music has done that, and I don't even play Minecraft. So, now I have a question: If they add a Minecraft character or stage, how do you think they'll handle Sweden? It seems to be Minecraft's most well known piece, but it's incredibly soothing like The Roost rather than being a good battle theme like they've been trying to go for. Do you think they'll leave it alone or try to make it into something more up beat or have both the original and remixed tracks?

Right now, I'm kinda hoping the original track gets in in this hypothetical scenario.

They'll probably end up butchering it with some awful remix like the songs from Banjo-Kazooie, but I hope they just use the original, or get C418 (the original composer of the song) to remix it.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Those very people then claimed they had never heard of the Slime either, what makes i better as that those people wanted 'Nintendo relevant' characters when Nintendo Power literally gave out free copies of the first Dragon Quest game, I don't feel it can get that much more Nintendo relevant

Imagine assuming those people are old enough to know what Nintendo Power was.