Just some thoughts about "fan rules"...
From what i understand it's a derogatory term used to diminish the value of a tendency or a conclusion based on a tendency. Speculation in general (not only Smash specualtion) is basically people predicting stuff by analyzing various tendencies/trends so i really don't think it's wise to just discard all of them on the basis of "some tendencies have been broken in the past therefore, all tendencies are insignificant".
Some tendencies will never be broken but on the other hand, even a long lasting trend can come to an end pretty much at any time.
I think that one of the best thing we can get from trends is an understanding of the reason(s) behind them. A tendency alone isn't an argument (or a "rule") but the reason(s) why it's there can help predict if it'll stop or continue in the future.
i agree
i get why people push back on fan rules if they're treated as fact but fan rules typically guide speculation based on trends and news about Smash and when used in this manner they're harmless.
its not like fan rules are overly restrictive on our speculation and wishlists since we have support threads for all types of characters from Sgt. Cortez to Dante to Carmen Sandiego to Ray MK II.
i understand sakurai can be unpredictable but the Smash franchise is 5 games deep and 20 years old some things can be gleaned from it. It can become more rewarding when our "rules" are thrown to the wayside with an unexpected character.
The recent ARMS speculation has excited the community because at least one of our rules may be broken.
Spring Man knocks down two: No AT becomes a character within the same game, spirits cannot become playable
Min Min, Ribbon Girl, Ninjara, Twintelle knock down two: spirits cannot become playable and protagonist/mascot is 1st for a new franchise
Every other ARMS character knocks down the protagonist 1st rule.
for me the only "fan rules" i have currently are:
Character should debut from a video game (or a peripheral)
OG 12 are likeliest to be safe from cuts (not 100% as Jigglypuff IIRC was almost cut during Brawl)
New Smash Game = at least 1 new pokemon (true in every game so far)
New Smash Game = at least 1 new FE character (true since Melee)