Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

They're not going to make bonus DLC characters. You're setting your expectations up way too high. They're not going to take one of the Assist Trophies and turn them into a Fighter as a bonus, it's gonna be six and done. Plus once Vol 2 is done we're be moving into Year 6 of the Switch, by then Nintendo is gonna be making a new console that can be on par with PS5 and whatever the next Xbox is being called so they're most likely going to slow down on all Switch game development.

Let's correct a lot of this;

We do not know about any bonus DLC. We do have a column that exists, but no reliable translation outside of PushDustIn, which does not say "we are 100% done after this." It's at best implied.

A 3rd Pass is possible, but unlikely. That's another year at least if it's not echoes. Bonus characters however do not take a year, and they have a decent chance because they can be made alongside others, as they do not have stages, spirit boards, or extra music. That's less licensing and work. That's why they're possible without interrupting the lifespan you spoke of.

The only good point is the lifespan, but that's... it. Anything else is based upon unclear information we have. It's fair for you to believe that, and it's a perfectly fair opinion. But until, as I said, we have the proper translation(which considering one person put actual extra text among Ryukas? Push's is far more accurate), these statements ring hollow when tried to be presented as fact.

I'm not denying the possibility, I'm just aware that possibility does not in any way equal probability. If you asked me if it's possible, I'd say maybe, but asked if it's probable, you'd get the biggest no this side of the forums.
I'm not going to be destroyed or anything if Spirits get put back on the table, it's a nice thought, but realistically it has a decimal chance of actually becoming reality.

Actually, realistically, they're highly likely. AT's too but only for Spring Man. The chances of it not being Spring Man or Ribbon Girl(...Why did I mistakenly say Min Min before? Must've been tired), the outright mascots, are far lower. Nintendo, nor Sakurai, ever go for anyone but a main character/mascot first. These are the actual core characters chosen. Likewise, Nintendo does not have any reason to care about other NPC roles. That's not their job. They give Sakurai a character and he figures out how to make them work. What works for anyone works for Spring Man moveset-wise by general design, so that wouldn't stop him. The chances of Nintendo picking a lesser character is also low. Why wouldn't they want their mascots in to promote the game? That's the most logical business sense for them. So really, some unimportant(to Nintendo) NPC thing? Of little matter.

You'd be in a fair position if you were talking about Sakurai's choices. He is not picking the DLC, however, so it doesn't matter outright if Sakurai likes the idea or not. He's gone down hard that none of FP1 were his personal choices. And FP2 also was made clear it follows the same personality. Being he can disable an AT with a line or two of code(or a few more, maybe), there's quite literally no good reason he can deny Nintendo. The most he'd do is replace the AT with Springtron, but that's extra development time when it doesn't even matter in the end. Oh no, you disable it when the ARMS character is playable. That's the least amount of work done, and with COVID19 outright making development harder, disabled AT's are the most likely way to handle that.

 

[AceAttorney9000]

I'm not going to be destroyed or anything if Spirits get put back on the table

Then why are you calling people "stupid" (at least indirectly via a movie reference) and "childish" for thinking it's even possible? Those kinds of insults are completely uncalled for.

 

[RocksteadyBebop]

I hope we get Max Brass and Dr. Coyle as an echo!

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Oh...nevermind then. Kinda the entire point of Novice spirits is they are trash tier.

I wouldn't want any of them taking up a character slot. No more Piranha Plants for me, thanks.

Not all of them are like Piranha Plant. They're just not as important to their series or are pretty niche and/or obscure. Eevee is there too for some reason.

I'm not denying the possibility, I'm just aware that possibility does not in any way equal probability. If you asked me if it's possible, I'd say maybe, but asked if it's probable, you'd get the biggest no this side of the forums.
I'm not going to be destroyed or anything if Spirits get put back on the table, it's a nice thought, but realistically it has a decimal chance of actually becoming reality.

I'd argue that probability is there too:

• Spring Man is the most obvious choice for an ARMS character.
• Spring Man is arguably the best choice for representing the series.
• Assist Trophies have already been shown to be removed for certain circumstances, and some of them are solely for attention to detail.

And what does he have against him:

• A precedent that doesn't make as much sense in DLC practices.
• A guessing game that may mean something, but also may just be Nintendo being a bit tone deaf.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I hope we get Max Brass and Dr. Coyle as an echo!

Sadly, with the info we have, I don't think an echo is likely outside of a later bonus character, and I'd expect the idea to be announced more Bonus DLC is being thought on near the end of this year at the earliest. Albeit, June isn't impossible, cause that's at least a near half a year to discuss ideas of more DLC, but still.

I do want more DLC, but I doubt it. Sure, we don't have a concrete fact it's over after this(likely, though), but I do agree with the idea it's highly unlikely.

...Though hey, if an Echo can come with a stage/music/costumes, sure. Maybe a Ken-style echo?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

...Though hey, if an Echo can come with a stage/music/costumes, sure. Maybe a Ken-style echo?

As long as we don't get an echo that is either literally the same, basically the same, or the training wheels/objectively better version of the character.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

As long as we don't get an echo that is either literally the same, basically the same, or the training wheels/objectively better version of the character.

Agreed. Hence Ken-style. He's highly different.

I don't expect other clones either like Isabelle/Dr. Mario, mind you. Honestly, I'd be surprised if we had unique characters from the same franchises(Waluigi and Geno, for instance).

 

[Icedragonadam]

I wonder if the Arms character trailer will just be like Terry's. Where instead of the characters failing to grab the letter, they have a free for all with characters being knocked out until there's only Two ARMS left standing.

 

[Proceleon]

Then why are you calling people "stupid" (at least indirectly via a movie reference) and "childish" for thinking it's even possible? Those kinds of insults are completely uncalled for.

Because a lot of people are getting themselves hyped up for nothing. Be hyped when or if it happens, not before it happens.
Besides, speculation isn't driven by wishes and dreams, that's just a wishlist. Speculation is analysis of what's in the game and building a hypothesis as a result of the evidence present at the time, and there's far more precedent for Spirits being avoided than the contrary if you look at Ultimate DLC and Spirit Events so far.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I wonder if the Arms character trailer will just be like Terry's. Where instead of the characters failing to grab the letter, they have a free for all with characters being knocked out until there's only Two ARMS left standing.

I'm personally hoping for a custom character of sorts. The trailer would be like:

*plays Main Theme*
*Spring Man does a thing*
*transitions to Ribbon Girl's version of main theme*
*the other ARMS characters do a thing*
*end scene*

Because a lot of people are getting themselves hyped up for nothing. Be hyped when or if it happens, not before it happens.
Besides, speculation isn't driven by wishes and dreams, that's just a wishlist. Speculation is analysis of what's in the game and building a hypothesis as a result of the evidence present at the time, and there's far more precedent for Spirits being avoided than the contrary if you look at Ultimate DLC and Spirit Events so far.

Getting excited for the idea of something isn't a bad thing. You just have to still be able to say "oh, that's too bad" and move on. I'd be willing to bet that most people are like this, and that those that aren't give the community a bad rap.

 

[Ben Holt]

I mean, I think FP Vol. 2 is absolutely the end of Ultimate DLC, because after it's done they'll have been supporting the game for 3 years after its release, which is a pretty long time for a Smash game, especially one of this magnitude.

But, to play devil's advocate, there were also "no plans" to make anything after FP Vol. 1 at first. Plans can change.

I think that they're serious that the end of Volume 2 is the end, but my speculation of extra "Individual DLC" emanates from the time frame.
From Ultimates launch to Byleth's release was 13 months, just over a year. Counting Piranha Plant, we got six characters in that time frame.
From Byleth's release to December 2021 is 23 months, 10 more than Volume 1, almost TWO WHOLE YEARS. And furthermore, if FP6 is Spring Man, he was already halfway finished with his Assist Trophy (I posted yesterday about how close ATs were to playable characters).
So one of three possibilities exist:
1. The team has slowed development down to a crawl.
2. Sakurai gave an EXTREMELY Liberal deadline.
Or 3. There are a few extras in between Challenger Packs.

While I wouldn't hold my breath for 10 Individual DLC releases, I think that 2-5 more is not unreasonable. Keep in mind that Individual DLC does not require a stage, music, or a Spirit Board, so it probably takes only half as long as a full Challenger Pack.

My personal distinction between whether I see a character as Individual DLC or as a Challenger Pack is how much they require a stage and music.
ARMs is completely unrepresented in Smash, so it HAD to have a stage and music. Someone like Waluigi or Dixie Kong could get away with being Individual DLC, as Mario and Donkey Kong's series are already represented stage and music-wise.

 

[Proceleon]

Getting excited for the idea of something isn't a bad thing. You just have to still be able to say "oh, that's too bad" and move on. I'd be willing to bet that most people are like this, and that those that aren't give the community a bad rap.

Well yeah, those are the people who still harass Sakurai over Waluigi, lord knows we don't need those people, but I'll say now I'll only argue for Spirits when Spirits actually happen.
If they do happen, great, it'll be one more thing to keep in mind going forward. If it doesn't happen then the whole Smash fandom stops putting Spirits on their obligatory Top 10 wishlists. I dunno, I'll be celebrating either way.

 

[RocksteadyBebop]

Sadly, with the info we have, I don't think an echo is likely outside of a later bonus character, and I'd expect the idea to be announced more Bonus DLC is being thought on near the end of this year at the earliest. Albeit, June isn't impossible, cause that's at least a near half a year to discuss ideas of more DLC, but still.

I do want more DLC, but I doubt it. Sure, we don't have a concrete fact it's over after this(likely, though), but I do agree with the idea it's highly unlikely.

...Though hey, if an Echo can come with a stage/music/costumes, sure. Maybe a Ken-style echo?

Sadly, with the info we have, I don't think an echo is likely

ehhh I don’t follow “information” because regardless I won’t be disappointed. They do a lot of PR talk and lie. And a lot of times they don’t. I never followed rules or patterns because they are usually broken.

Regardless, I wouldn’t be disappointed, I’m happy with the game even though there are some omissions I wanted including modes and etc.

 

[ZephyrZ]

Because a lot of people are getting themselves hyped up for nothing. Be hyped when or if it happens, not before it happens.
Besides, speculation isn't driven by wishes and dreams, that's just a wishlist. Speculation is analysis of what's in the game and building a hypothesis as a result of the evidence present at the time, and there's far more precedent for Spirits being avoided than the contrary if you look at Ultimate DLC and Spirit Events so far.

Patterns absolutely should be considered, but you'll never be able to break speculation down to a perfect science, no matter how hard you try. Patterns have been broken time again and they'll keep breaking as long as the series keeps getting new installments. We should at least humor the possibility of assist trophy or spirit "upgrades", even if we shouldn't put total faith in them happening.

What people really ought yo do is relax and not take speculation so seriously. Its okay to challenge the precedent as long as you have a little caution. Smash is meant to be fun. Speculation is something that we should try and do for fun to.

 

[Cosmic77]

Because a lot of people are getting themselves hyped up for nothing. Be hyped when or if it happens, not before it happens.
Besides, speculation isn't driven by wishes and dreams, that's just a wishlist. Speculation is analysis of what's in the game and building a hypothesis as a result of the evidence present at the time, and there's far more precedent for Spirits being avoided than the contrary if you look at Ultimate DLC and Spirit Events so far.

Well yeah, those are the people who still harass Sakurai over Waluigi, lord knows we don't need those people, but I'll say now I'll only argue for Spirits when Spirits actually happen.
If they do happen, great, it'll be one more thing to keep in mind going forward. If it doesn't happen then the whole Smash fandom stops putting Spirits on their obligatory Top 10 wishlists. I dunno, I'll be celebrating either way.

Most of what I would've typed has already been stated, so I'll just keep it short.

It's fine if you don't think we'll get any more ATs as characters. It's even fine if you don't like ATs becoming characters. You're entitled to an opinion, and you don't really need to justify how you feel. Just don't cling on to those opinions so much that you begin to loathe the people who think differently.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Patterns absolutely should be considered, but you'll never be able to break speculation down to a perfect science, no matter how hard you try. Patterns have been broken time again and they'll keep breaking as long as the series keeps getting new installments. We should at least humor the possibility of assist trophy or spirit "upgrades", even if we shouldn't put total faith in them happening.

Sometimes there was never meant to be a pattern in the first place. Ike supposedly replaced Roy, leading to the assumption that he'd get replaced by Chrom, but Roy has a tiny bit of fighter data in Brawl.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Whoops, wrong thread.

 

[Garteam]

It's a nice thought, but realistically it has a decimal chance of actually becoming reality.

If we assume that every ARMS character listed by Nintendo has an equal chance of being playable, that's still a 33% percent chance the ARMS character is a spirit upgrade. Likewise, that number goes up when you account for these spirits being the most popular and iconic of the ARMS cast.

Regarding Assist Trophy upgrades, there's a 7% chance Spring Man gets in. This number is about as small as it could realistically be, seeing how Spring Man is the main character of ARMS and would logically be the most likely to join the battle.

As such, I don't see where you're getting the idea that spirit/assist trophy upgrades are some sort of pie-in-the-sky wish with no basis in reality. Yes, it's good to remain skeptical when speculating, but you also have to be willing to change your perspective when new info comes out. When Ryu's name was found in the data for Smash for's DLC, people didn't go "Well it can't be the one from Street Fighter, because third party companies can't have multiple reps!" even though that was a rule at the time.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

I have a few fighter concepts I'd like to see in Smash, can you guys give me a character that could fit these? It's a semi-"sell me on" concept.

1. The opposite concept to the first one; starts relatively to very underpowered, but through either skilled play or gathering resources, becomes much more powerful. (This is actually how I envision Arle playing, though she's relative and not very.)

We have that, it's called . Because getting hit on purpose is skilled play.

 

[andree123]

Konami Digital Entertainment has announced that an employee has become infected with COVID-19. https://t.co/1Zj5M5Dvqk

— Robert Sephazon (@Sephazon) April 16, 2020

Oh no, Konami Japan has the coronavirus problem like Capcom and Square Enix in Japan.

 

[Proceleon]

If we assume that every ARMS character listed by Nintendo has an equal chance of being playable, that's still a 33% percent chance the ARMS character is a spirit upgrade. Likewise, that number goes up when you account for these spirits being the most popular and iconic of the ARMS cast.

Regarding Assist Trophy upgrades, there's a 7% chance Spring Man gets in. This number is about as small as it could realistically be, seeing how Spring Man is the main character of ARMS and would logically be the most likely to join the battle.

As such, I don't see where you're getting the idea that spirit/assist trophy upgrades are some sort of pie-in-the-sky wish with no basis in reality. Yes, it's good to remain skeptical when speculating, but you also have to be willing to change your perspective when new info comes out. When Ryu's name was found in the data for Smash for's DLC, people didn't go "Well it can't be the one from Street Fighter, because third party companies can't have multiple reps!" even though that was a rule at the time.

And I will, like I said before, adjust my position when new info comes out, but said info isn't out until June, and as I said before, if a rule hasn't been broken yet, that rule is true.
And yes, Spirits have a 1/3 chance of happening, but that's still the least likely outcome from a numerical standpoint.
In short, ATs/Spirits have no basis in reality because they're, well, not reality yet. They will have a basis if they become so.

Most of what I would've typed has already been stated, so I'll just keep it short.

It's fine if you don't think we'll get any more ATs as characters. It's even fine if you don't like ATs becoming characters. You're entitled to an opinion, and you don't really need to justify how you feel. Just don't cling on to those opinions so much that you begin to loathe the people who think differently.

Yeah, you're right. I don't mean to sound hateful, but I often find when people share my stance they get drowned out because most people.. I guess don't want to hear their hopes be put down? All it does is feed this echo chamber of possibility and quite frankly, that's no way to go about speculation. It's not a pleasant environment to be in when the "but muh dreams tho" response is so.. for lack of a better word, aggressive.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Some sad news. Keiji Fujiwara, the voice of Mewtwo in Smash 4 and Smash Ultimate and Axel in the Kingdom Hearts series, among many other roles, has passed away at the age of 55. RIP to a legend, we'll always have him memorized.

NEWS: Voice Actor Keiji Fujiwara passed away due to cancer, 55

AIR Agency has just announced the death of voice actor Keiji Fujiwara last April 12 due to cancer.

Hats off and a big salute to you sensei!
Thank you for those wonderful voices.
May you rest in peace. :(( pic.twitter.com/lfj0m7OI5s

— Aniradio+ (@aniradioplus) April 16, 2020

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Some sad news. Keiji Fujiwara, the voice of Mewtwo in Smash 4 and Smash Ultimate and Axel in the Kingdom Hearts series, among many other roles, has passed away at 55. RIP to a legend, we'll always have him memorized.

NEWS: Voice Actor Keiji Fujiwara passed away due to cancer, 55

AIR Agency has just announced the death of voice actor Keiji Fujiwara last April 12 due to cancer.

Hats off and a big salute to you sensei!
Thank you for those wonderful voices.
May you rest in peace. :(( pic.twitter.com/lfj0m7OI5s

— Aniradio+ (@aniradioplus) April 16, 2020

Man, **** cancer. First Unshou Ishizuka (Incineroar, Old Joseph and Heihachi) now him.

 

[Knight Dude]

Anyway, to move onto something more productive, if you could pick one spirit to upgrade to playable, who would you pick? However, there's a condition: it must be a Novice spirit.

Mettaur. They have a lot of alternate forms to pull moves from. I was gonna say Axl, but he's 2-star.

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Some sad news. Keiji Fujiwara, the voice of Mewtwo in Smash 4 and Smash Ultimate and Axel in the Kingdom Hearts series, among many other roles, has passed away at 55. RIP to a legend, we'll always have him memorized.

NEWS: Voice Actor Keiji Fujiwara passed away due to cancer, 55

AIR Agency has just announced the death of voice actor Keiji Fujiwara last April 12 due to cancer.

Hats off and a big salute to you sensei!
Thank you for those wonderful voices.
May you rest in peace. :(( pic.twitter.com/lfj0m7OI5s

— Aniradio+ (@aniradioplus) April 16, 2020

RIP Mewtwo we will miss you. Like we just lost the voice for Peppy like come on Death give us a break!

 

[Knight Dude]

Jill Valentine.

I forgot she was a 1-star Spirit. Good call. Should've been my actual answer.

Anywho I'd pick Merric because Merric's the best.

Ah, so that's what this was. All a ploy to get Merric talk going. Smart guy.

 

[Opossum]

I forgot she was a 1-star Spirit. Good call. Should've been my actual answer.

Yeah, when it comes to spirits that really shouldn't have been one star, Jill's pretty much at the top of the list, lol.

Ah, so that's what this was. All a ploy to get Merric talk going. Smart guy.

 

[RetrogamerMax]

But really though want does the star ranking mean? Is it base on characters power, popularity, or what? The ranking of the star system is strange. Why is Isaac a 3 star while Geno is a 5 star? Isaac should be a 5 star too if it is base on power or popularity.

 

[Dark Bagel]

Anyway, to move onto something more productive, if you could pick one spirit to upgrade to playable, who would you pick? However, there's a condition: it must be a Novice spirit.

THE SWORD HAND... IT HUNGERS...

 

[Guynamednelson]

But really though want does the star ranking mean? Is it base on characters power, popularity, or what? The ranking of the star system is strange. Why is Isaac a 3 star while Geno is a 5 star? Isaac should be a 5 star too if it is base on power or popularity.

They seem to be balanced around canonical power levels and/or where they are in WoL. For example Dan is a one star spirit because he's SF's joke character.

 

[RetrogamerMax]

They seem to be balanced around canonical power levels and/or where they are in WoL.

Honestly though it doesn't make sense that a possessed doll is stronger than a earth mage or that a blue vixen with a magical staff is stronger than a half genie hybrid.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

They seem to be balanced around canonical power levels and/or where they are in WoL. For example Dan is a one star spirit because he's SF's joke character.

Infinite and Whispy Woods makes this quite interesting while multiple FE characters have Legend ranks and Hinawa has a Legend

 

[chocolatejr9]

Infinite and Whispy Woods makes this quite interesting while multiple FE characters have Legend ranks and Hinawa has a Legend

That's because Hinawa is a mom and moms are built strong.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Honestly though it doesn't make sense that a possessed doll is stronger than a earth mage or that a blue vixen with a magical staff is stronger than a half genie hybrid.

Well, it's a doll from the heavens, so maybe it's just cosmic power.

Isaac does eventually gain that to some degree, but he could've been based upon an earlier version of his characterization.

That or there's no consistency and they didn't think every scenario through/do all the research in the world. The rankings seem arbitrary, to be honest.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Honestly though it doesn't make sense that a possessed doll is stronger than a earth mage or that a blue vixen with a magical staff is stronger than a half genie hybrid.

Geno is a legend because they're referencing Geno's Whirl doing 9999 damage on enemies. So they made his power level 10,000 at Level 99.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

That's because Hinawa is a mom and moms are built strong.

Spoiler: pretty sure everyone knows this but just in case

the fact that a cyborg dinosaur literally eats her at the start of the game suggests otherwise

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Well, it's a doll from the heavens, so maybe it's just cosmic power.

Isaac does eventually gain that to some degree, but he could've been based upon an earlier version of his characterization.

That or there's no consistency and they didn't think every scenario through/do all the research in the world. The rankings seem arbitrary, to be honest.

It still doesn't make sense that Krystal a blue vixen with a magical staff is stronger than Shantae a half genie hybrid though.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Spoiler: pretty sure everyone knows this but just in case

the fact that a cyborg dinosaur literally eats her at the start of the game suggests otherwise

I said she was built strong, not that she was immortal.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

It still doesn't make sense that Krystal a blue vixen with a magical staff is stronger than Shantae a half genie hybrid though.

Hence, no consistency as a possibility.

There could be many reasons, honestly. Lack of research, some silly "3rd party involvement" for some, some kind of bias. Who knows, really. I think the issue is the lack of consistency on why it could make sense, so it's hard to pinpoint much of anything.

...I do like the Geno Whirl answer, though.

 

[Knight Dude]

It still doesn't make sense that Krystal a blue vixen with a magical staff is stronger than Shantae a half genie hybrid though.

It's best not to worry about it. So long as Akuma is busted, all is well.