Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Dinoman96]

I'm pretty sure we'll at most get 1-2 first party characters and the rest will be third party.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

I would simply say the context of Byleth getting in doesn’t necessarily mean we’re getting an abundance of 1st parties in Pass 2.

There’s nuance to the Challenger Packs. Even if Sakurai wasn’t picking them himself necessarily, each pack has been entirely new to the game and brought in content that wasn’t there before.

Now, does this mean we aren’t getting 1st parties? I wouldn’t say that. I just wouldn’t expect a pass with a majority of 1st parties, and I think folks should actually consider the fact that throughout all Newcomer DLC, we’ve never had an overlap.

Don’t dismiss that as a “rule” either. That’s what has happened so far. It doesn’t solidify that we aren’t getting an overlapping character, but it tells us that getting an overlapping character would break a trend that has been going for...9 characters so far?

Anyway, I’m about to celebrate my snow day today with NieR Automata and...cleaning.

Careful, people here are going to plug their ears and dismiss your post by pulling the fan rule card (as always for this community).

 

[Herocin]

I think in order to gues the picks this year we gotta wait to figure out which 1st/2nd party games are gonna be coming out. Nintendo def has something down their sleeve, besides just dlc for their current games. Not to say every character will be 1st or 2nd, but we're def gonna get someone

I’d say people are heavily underestimating Ring Fit. Main arguments I se against it are A) why a joke character like Wii Fit Trainer Fit DLC? Answer to that is in Ring Fit there is at least actual combat and to a lesser extent piranha plant although I’m aware he was an early purchase bonus. B) Why an unproven Nintendo IP? Ring Fit has more than proved itself. It’s selling tremendously in the few months it’s been out. I haven’t actually gotten round to playing the game yet but the lack of a spirit event just seems weird to me. Obviously I’m not saying that confirms Ring Fit but its something I hope people keep in mind.

 

[Cosmic77]

My prediction is that no one knows what's in the second pass and that people are inclined to believe whatever outcome gets them the characters that they want.

We can debate first-parties, third-parties, and Spirits until we're blue in the face. Fact is, everything we can come up with is complete and total speculation. No point in arguing when there's so little to go off of.

 

[Sestetz]

Some people say that another Fire Emblem will show up next pass because of Heroes, which I think is a pretty dumb assumption. Considering we have, pretty much no one left from Fire Emblem they could add... Unless they added someone from Cindered? Which I highly doubt, considering they already splurged on all the Three Houses content with Byleth.

I also don't think Heroes has enough to represent it, music wise, and I'm not really sure what they would do for the stage either? Tbh I already dislike Heroes so seeing someone from it would really suck, but I think it has a 0% chance to happen and Byleth is it for FE

 

[Herocin]

Careful, people here are going to plug their ears and dismiss your post by pulling the fan rule card (as always for this community).

I don’t really think you can say that as I’m fairly certain you have pulled that card a couple of times. I though you were doing it a bit when all the Kos Mos talk started iirc

 

[Dinoman96]

I’d say people are heavily underestimating Ring Fit. Main arguments I se against it are A) why a joke character like Wii Fit Trainer Fit DLC? Answer to that is in Ring Fit there is at least actual combat and to a lesser extent piranha plant although I’m aware he was an early purchase bonus. B) Why an unproven Nintendo IP? Ring Fit has more than proved itself. It’s selling tremendously in the few months it’s been out. I haven’t actually gotten round to playing the game yet but the lack of a spirit event just seems weird to me. Obviously I’m not saying that confirms Ring Fit but its something I hope people keep in mind.

I just can't see Ring Fit Adventure making it if ARMS and Astral Chain couldn't.

They're obviously wary of adding new IPs that could potentially go the way of Codename STEAM, which is why new Fire Emblem or Pokemon reps are safer bets for Smash DLC considering they're proven franchises. They more than likely decided the FP2 lineup long before RFA came out and proved itself as a success, so I just don't see it happening. Maybe in the next game.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I think we’ll get three third parties and three first parties. An even balance, if you will

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

When it comes to first parties, the only thoughts I have are these:

1) Smash never seems to pick series that are in their infancy, so anything new out in the next year probably isn’t in.

2) Ring Fit Adventure has absolutely nothing in the game and was a major success.

3) Personally, only series that has had a spirit event that I could see getting a character is, in fact, Pokémon Sword & Shield.

4) I still don’t think upgrades are as likely as some people think they are. They should considered less than likely until one actually happens in my humble opinion. I know people aren’t going to like that/agree because some of their most wanted are in that “upgrade” camp, but I think it’s worth acknowledging.

With Sora, I personally think he’s out of the running. I would be super down with him in the game, but I don’t have much faith.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

I don’t really think you can say that as I’m fairly certain you have pulled that card a couple of times. I though you were doing it a bit when all the Kos Mos talk started iirc

Show an instance of me using the “fan rule” card for an argument.

I’ll wait.

 

[Dinoman96]

I don't get why people keep going on about how RFA has nothing in Ultimate currently when you could of literally said the exact same thing about Astral Chain prior to January. They did a spirit event for that game like five months after it originally came out.

It means nothing.

 

[Opossum]

I don’t like the misinformation being spread around Chief. Kahn said nothing about Chief. Somebody else said they think negotiations for Chief went down as well as Sora and Kahn just said Disney Japan wouldn’t let him in or whatever.

Hey, you can't be too hard on them. Some Smash fans have this thing where they can't tell human beings apart from each other and can only distinguish exaggerated cartoon animals from each other. It makes sense they'd get Imran confused with someone else since the whole podcast group was made up of realistically proportioned humans.

 

[Herocin]

I don't get why people keep going on about how RFA has nothing in Ultimate currently when you could of literally said the exact same thing about Astral Chain prior to January. They did a spirit event for that game like five months after it originally came out.

It means nothing.

Like I said take it how you will but i probably should have pointed out it probably means nothing like I did previously. Sorry on my end but it probably is still worth at least keeping somewhat in mind until it gets a spirit event. And it would have been rather idiotic of me to provide my points without reasoning with said reasoning being FE three houses didn’t get spirits. Now of course Ring Fit could still get a spirit event it would be foolish to say it can’t but it would be equally as foolish to say it will. Nothing is certain we will just have to wait and see

Show an instance of me using the “fan rule” card for an argument.

I’ll wait.

I’ll go check. I vaguely recall someone saying something about you also being on GameFaqs and really not wanting KOS-MOS in the game so I suppose most of my assumptions stem from that. In fact I won’t check tbh. I said that you used fanrules as arguments not that you used fanrule specifically and I’m very certain you have used fanrules to bolster your own arguments for instance you have probably done it with KOSMOS

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I don't get why people keep going on about how RFA has nothing in Ultimate currently when you could of literally said the exact same thing about Astral Chain prior to January. They did a spirit event for that game like five months after it originally came out.

It means nothing.

I wouldn’t say it means nothing.

Remember, Three Houses had nothing. After Astral Chain got Spirits, folks figured Three Houses was next.

Suddenly, we get a Three Houses character and spirits which, to me at least, suggests the Spirits were saved for the character reveal.

That said, I don’t think Ring Fit is safe from getting spirited away. I think that’s entirely possible. It’s just that no DLC reveal has overlapped with a spirit event yet, so it does have merit as an indicator. Until it doesn’t for specific series.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

Like I said take it how you will.


I’ll go check. I vaguely recall someone saying something about you also being on GameFaqs and really not wanting KOS-MOS in the game so I suppose most of my assumptions stem from that

Just because I was adamantly against KOS-MOS, it doesn’t mean I used the “fan rule” point in any of my arguments.

 

[TMNTSSB4]

Some people say that another Fire Emblem will show up next pass because of Heroes, which I think is a pretty dumb assumption. Considering we have, pretty much no one left from Fire Emblem they could add... Unless they added someone from Cindered? Which I highly doubt, considering they already splurged on all the Three Houses content with Byleth.

I also don't think Heroes has enough to represent it, music wise, and I'm not really sure what they would do for the stage either? Tbh I already dislike Heroes so seeing someone from it would really suck, but I think it has a 0% chance to happen and Byleth is it for FE

There’s way too many options for FE reps, but considering Byleth is here to represent Three Houses (and technically all of Fire Emblem technically reps Heroes), there is no reason to give them a 9th rep until the next game

 

[Curious Villager]

I wouldn’t say it means nothing.

Remember, Three Houses had nothing. After Astral Chain got Spirits, folks figured Three Houses was next.

Suddenly, we get a Three Houses character and spirits which, to me at least, suggests the Spirits were saved for the character reveal.

That said, I don’t think Ring Fit is safe from getting spirited away. I think that’s entirely possible. It’s just that no DLC reveal has overlapped with a spirit event yet, so it does have merit as an indicator. Until it doesn’t for specific series.

I suppose the best thing to do in that regard is to just take a wait and see approach.

Whether or not it ends up being either another FE3H or Astral Chain type of deal...

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I’d say people are heavily underestimating Ring Fit. Main arguments I se against it are A) why a joke character like Wii Fit Trainer Fit DLC? Answer to that is in Ring Fit there is at least actual combat and to a lesser extent piranha plant although I’m aware he was an early purchase bonus. B) Why an unproven Nintendo IP? Ring Fit has more than proved itself. It’s selling tremendously in the few months it’s been out. I haven’t actually gotten round to playing the game yet but the lack of a spirit event just seems weird to me. Obviously I’m not saying that confirms Ring Fit but its something I hope people keep in mind.

Yup among my predictions for Season Pass 2.

 

[Gyrom8]

Some people say that another Fire Emblem will show up next pass because of Heroes, which I think is a pretty dumb assumption. Considering we have, pretty much no one left from Fire Emblem they could add... Unless they added someone from Cindered? Which I highly doubt, considering they already splurged on all the Three Houses content with Byleth.

I also don't think Heroes has enough to represent it, music wise, and I'm not really sure what they would do for the stage either? Tbh I already dislike Heroes so seeing someone from it would really suck, but I think it has a 0% chance to happen and Byleth is it for FE

I doubt FE will get another character in the next round of DLC; if we do get someone repping a mobile game I'd imagine it'd be from another franchise

 

[Garteam]

In regards to Ring Fit Adventure, I think it's contingent on timing.

It's pretty clear that Sakurai tends to wait and see if a series has legs before adding them to Smash. Otherwise, we would've likely seen things like Olimar in Melee, Inkling in Smash for Wii U/3DS' DLC, and Astral Chain in the Fighter's Pass.

Given how successful Ring Fit is, I'd say it's going to become a series. As such, its chances of being in Smash is dependent on Sakurai and Nintendo knowing it was a success prior to negotiations for Fighter's Pass 2. I'd say the earliest Nintendo would've been able to know about its sales is two weeks after launch, putting it at early November. As such, If Fighter's Pass 2 was negotiated sometime during or after November, Ring Fit Adventurer is a real option. If not, I think Ring Fit is spirited away at best and gets nothing at worse.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

My prediction is that no one knows what's in the second pass and that people are inclined to believe whatever outcome gets them the characters that they want.

We can debate first-parties, third-parties, and Spirits until we're blue in the face. Fact is, everything we can come up with is complete and total speculation. No point in arguing when there's so little to go off of.

So, genuine speculation about Smash based upon previous evidence of what has been done with prior DLC; comments Sakurai has made regarding Ultimate in interviews, Directs, his book, and Famitsu columns; and using things like Nintendo's fiscal reports that specifically highlight their goals for Smash is pointless and we shouldn't have those discussions/arguments based upon them because we don't know the contents for a fact?

Why even post in the speculation thread at that point?

 

[BitBitio]

My predictions:
FP6 will be a Nintendo rep.
FP7 will be Ryu Hayabusa.
FP8 will be Steve.
FP9 will be Crash.
FP10 will be another Nintendo rep.
FP11 will be Sora.

The Nintendo reps could be Geno or pretty much anyone. Deluxe Mii costumes will come with each.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Why even post in the speculation thread at that point?

It gives us something to talk about and its fun too.

That's actually why I'm glad they don't reveal all the characters at once both Base and DLC. I also get why Nintendo and Sakurai does it. To build up hype.

 

[Ayumi Tachibana]

Might that character have been Sora?

I don't know.
But if we believe their claim that Bayonetta was in Top 5 in US, then who else were in there other than the veterans including Snake and K Rool, Ridley, or Banjo. Inkling and Ice Climbers couldn't make it because of technical issues so they aren't the one. Other than them, I only see Sora, Geno, Rayman, and may be Isaac and Bomberman. I don't think the demand for Crash was that high at that time especially before Cloud.

The exact quote where Sakurai said about the rejected character is this. It's an additional note for Bayonetta.
"可能なファイターの中で　その上には、たとえばスネークなど過去シリーズに登場したファイターや、すでに交渉したがNGのキャラもいた。"
This "NG" is an abbreviation for No Good. I believe it's a Japan made up word. We use this word in business talks or in casuals all the time, and it means "hard no". We use this as an antonym of OK. The quote says that they already have negotiated but got NG, so it means they failed to get that character.

My theory is the character couldn't make it was either Sora or Geno or Bomberman.
Sora is for obvious reasons, and Bomberman for Konami not liking him punching and kicking but I'm not really sure about this. If Sakurai said Bayo was also in Top 5 in Japan, then I might add Arle here too for Sega's higher-ups not liking Puyo characters to be violent.
As for Geno, I don't really know. The words they use for Japanese Smash splash screen is always the same "参戦" (Sansen), means "joins the battle", even for Miis, ATs or Spirits. Everytime the same. But they used other wording for just one character, and that was Geno. Technically, Isabella's splash card was different too but that was just a wordplay, still said the same thing, "さん戦" (Sansen). However, when they revealed Geno Mii costume, they said "解禁" (Kaikin). It literally means, lift/remove the ban. So if he was the character got NG, that wording makes so much sense at least for us Japanese. Geno got rejected, but they managed to use his design as a costume, thus he was unbanned.
If Geno finally makes it in the FP2, I want Sakurai to explain how his situation was.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Here's a fun game.

Assuming Sakurai decides to make an Echo Pack consisting of 4 characters to round up 90 (92) playable characters. Who would be your picks?

Mine would be

Black Shadow ()
Dixie Kong ()
Medusa ()
Octoling ()

Black Shadow and Dixie would be more like

 

[Cosmic77]

So, genuine speculation about Smash based upon previous evidence of what has been done with prior DLC; comments Sakurai has made regarding Ultimate in interviews, Directs, his book, and Famitsu columns; and using things like Nintendo's fiscal reports that specifically highlight their goals for Smash is pointless and we shouldn't have those discussions/arguments based upon them because we don't know the contents for a fact?

Why even post in the speculation thread at that point?

I really don't understand your last sentence when I said this in the post you're quoting:

Fact is, everything we can come up with is complete and total speculation. No point in arguing when there's so little to go off of.

I'm telling people to avoid getting so caught up with their own ideas that they develop a sense of certainty and belittle/argue with those who disagree. Instead of acknowledging that your personal predictions could turn out to be wrong and that the material you're using as evidence could be interpreted a number of different ways, you make posts that reek of someone who'd say, "I'm right, you're wrong, and I don't know why it's so hard for you to see things the same way as me."

 

[mynameisBlade]

Here's a fun game.

Assuming Sakurai decides to make an Echo Pack consisting of 4 characters to round up 90 (92) playable characters. Who would be your picks?

Mine would be

Black Shadow ()
Dixie Kong ()
Medusa ()
Octoling ()

Black Shadow and Dixie would be more like

Dixie - Diddy
She would have DK's UP-B similar to Chrom having Ike's.

Shadow - Sonic
Teleport UP-B as well as slightly different B and SIDE B.

Funky - DK
He could have a surfboard appear in specific animations. No real change though.

Black Shadow - Captain F
All the same. Just make him Melee Ganon minus the lightning on the D AIR.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

So, genuine speculation about Smash based upon previous evidence of what has been done with prior DLC; comments Sakurai has made regarding Ultimate in interviews, Directs, his book, and Famitsu columns; and using things like Nintendo's fiscal reports that specifically highlight their goals for Smash is pointless and we shouldn't have those discussions/arguments based upon them because we don't know the contents for a fact?

Why even post in the speculation thread at that point?

Could you link an example of this?

That would be very interesting if they did outright hint at what their goals for DLC were.

 

[Turtlar]

Here's a fun game.

Assuming Sakurai decides to make an Echo Pack consisting of 4 characters to round up 90 (92) playable characters. Who would be your picks?

Mine would be

Black Shadow ()
Dixie Kong ()
Medusa ()
Octoling ()

Black Shadow and Dixie would be more like

Dixie Kong
(DK's Up Special)
Medusa
(Custom moves from Smash 4)
Gooey
(Yoshi's Neutral Special, but takes power instead of lays egg)
Proto Man
(Custom moves from Smash 4)

 

[PeridotGX]

Here's a fun game.

Assuming Sakurai decides to make an Echo Pack consisting of 4 characters to round up 90 (92) playable characters. Who would be your picks?

Mine would be

Black Shadow ()
Dixie Kong ()
Medusa ()
Octoling ()

Black Shadow and Dixie would be more like

Proto Man -
Octoling -
Ninten -
Obstagoon - / Blaziken -

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Here's a fun game.

Assuming Sakurai decides to make an Echo Pack consisting of 4 characters to round up 90 (92) playable characters. Who would be your picks?

Mine would be

Black Shadow ()
Dixie Kong ()
Medusa ()
Octoling ()

Black Shadow and Dixie would be more like

Hero ()
Banjo ()
Terry ()
Byleth ()

/s

 

[CapitaineCrash]

Here's a fun game.

Assuming Sakurai decides to make an Echo Pack consisting of 4 characters to round up 90 (92) playable characters. Who would be your picks?

Mine would be

Black Shadow ()
Dixie Kong ()
Medusa ()
Octoling ()

Black Shadow and Dixie would be more like

Black shadow
Louie
Funky kong
Octoling

 

[Opossum]

Dixie Kong
(DK's Up Special)
Medusa
(Custom moves from Smash 4)
Gooey
(Yoshi's Neutral Special, but takes power instead of lays egg)
Proto Man
(Custom moves from Smash 4)

You'd also need to change Medusa's dash attack and back air due to her lacking a shield.

 

[Abade]

I don't get why people keep going on about how RFA has nothing in Ultimate currently when you could of literally said the exact same thing about Astral Chain prior to January. They did a spirit event for that game like five months after it originally came out.

It means nothing.

And here I am still waiting for Pro Wrestling, Dragalia Lost, Doshin the Giant, CommanderVideo, and Devil’s Third, since a few of them was in Smash before and Devil’s Third is in Ultimate’s game Titles files to show up in Super Smash Bros Ultimate at all.

 

[TheCJBrine]

I still think Geno could be upgraded. SMRPG only has spirits of him and Mallow, and while yes it’s a Mario game, it’s a unique world and has plenty of stuff Geno can bring to match at least the amount of stuff Byleth brought.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

I still think Geno could be upgraded. SMRPG only has spirits of him and Mallow, and while yes it’s a Mario game, it’s a unique world and has plenty of stuff Geno can bring to match at least the amount of stuff Byleth brought.

Why is Geno an exception to literally everything in this community?

If Sakurai truly wanted him playable now, he would’ve done so already, he got the rights to him twice, but still didn’t make him playable.

 

[Schnee117]

Here's a fun game.

Assuming Sakurai decides to make an Echo Pack consisting of 4 characters to round up 90 (92) playable characters. Who would be your picks?

Mine would be

Black Shadow ()
Dixie Kong ()
Medusa ()
Octoling ()

Black Shadow and Dixie would be more like

- Proto Man (shield to block projectiles is the main difference here)
- Jeanne (deals more damage, easier to KO, witch time replaced)
- Funky Kong (surfboard would be used for some attacks like Up Special and Side Smash)
- Metal Sonic (electric and fire properties on some moves (Up Smash is a strong exhaust burst instead of quills for example), punches are claw swipes, one of the spin dashes is the spinning claw rush)

 

[Megadoomer]

Here's a fun game.

Assuming Sakurai decides to make an Echo Pack consisting of 4 characters to round up 90 (92) playable characters. Who would be your picks?

Mine would be

Black Shadow ()
Dixie Kong ()
Medusa ()
Octoling ()

Black Shadow and Dixie would be more like

Jeanne (, with the changes that she has when she's playable in the Bayonetta games - tighter timing for Witch Time, less health/lighter, and stronger Smash attacks)

Octoling ( - this seems rather obvious)

Tails ( - more like Ken or Chrom, where he has a different up-B move and a few different basic attacks since he doesn't have Sonic's quills; it could be justified as him imitating Sonic like in Sonic 2)

I'm having trouble thinking of a fourth one, to be honest - maybe Doc Louis as a Little Mac echo? (similar moves, but slower and more durable)

 

[Sestetz]

- Proto Man (shield to block projectiles is the main difference here)
- Jeanne (deals more damage, easier to KO, witch time replaced)
- Funky Kong (surfboard would be used for some attacks like Up Special and Side Smash)
- Metal Sonic (electric and fire properties on some moves (Up Smash is a strong exhaust burst instead of quills for example), punches are claw swipes, one of the spin dashes is the spinning claw rush)

I can see you giving Proto a longer down tilt as well, replacing his up tilt with him holding his shield over his head and hitting you- And maybe changing his forward smash, because Protoman doesn't use the charge shot?

For Jeanne, maybe just give her a normal counter. Nothing too fancy there, lol

 

[TheCJBrine]

Why is Geno literally an exception to everything in this community?

I actually think some others have the potential to be upgraded, such as Shantae, though I don’t really think she’s likely. I think Waluigi could happen, too, but I can’t think of much new stuff he’d bring save for unused Mario enemies as spirits or more variations of himself, unused music or remixes of themes related to him, and maybe a stage of a dance floor, tennis court, or Waluigi’s Pinball...though I guess that’s enough new stuff. Old Mario Tennis music isn’t in Smash, I don’t think, nor DDR and whatever.

I would bring up my past arguments...but you and others who think Spirits won’t happen ignore them, even though I don’t cry “fan rule” and even base stuff on things Sakurai has said. Y’all don’t even acknowledge them when I reply with them, it’s like I don’t exist when I bring them up. I could be wrong, but so could y’all. And pushing it on people who think it could happen for the sake of “tempering expectations” gets really old.