Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

Question: how many think Sakurai is aware of the memes he generates and, if so, was the Byleth presentation video an effort to generate even more memes? Like the whole “smiling to the camera while putting up the Byleth poster” and the “counting in binary saga”? If so, perhaps we could craft a new theory called Meme Theory and guesstimate what characters could be in the pass based on meme potential in relation to Sakurai’s personality and character traits?

 

[PSIGuy]

I feel like a Joker esque pick wouldn't work again since anyone waiting for the first pick will also be very aware of the last pick.

Although part of me thinks they're planning on this, so when all 6 characters ARE fantastic, they get more money from people buying each one separately as they come out (since people are counting on a Byleth-style surpise). And the way FP1 is priced, they didn't lose any money since buying the first 4 is about the same as the whole pass... They're playing the long con on us.

 

[Deleted member]

https://en-americas-support.nintend...imate-update-ver.-7.0.0---fighter-adjustments

And for an easier to read version. Quite a few changes, really. Shield size increase for a lot of fighters is interesting. Dark Samus got a slight gameplay difference from Samus(short amount of invincibility frames).

Man those Zelda buffs tho

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Question: how many think Sakurai is aware of the memes he generates and, if so, was the Byleth presentation video an effort to generate even more memes? Like the whole “smiling to the camera while putting up the Byleth poster” and the “counting in binary saga”? If so, perhaps we could craft a new theory called Meme Theory and guesstimate what characters could be in the pass based on meme potential in relation to Sakurai’s personality and character traits?

im 100% sure he knows of the memes is gives birth to. Quick, someone ask Sakurai is he likes puzzles!

 

[Ben Holt]

Probably new toy syndrome, but I'm enjoying Byleth more than I expected to.

 

[Kokiden]

The worst part is Joker really doesn't need that many nerfs to be balanced, seeing how he's pretty reasonable in his base form. It's only when Arsene comes out that things get a little janky. I'm scared they're going to go too far in the other direction, do general damage nerfs on his entire moveset, and make it impossible to get anything done without Arsene.

Can't say I have faith in the balance team so I'm just going to expect the worst with every patch from now on.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Probably new toy syndrome, but I'm enjoying Byleth more than I expected to.

seems like some have already put the toy in the bottom of the toy box

 

[Krankees]

https://en-americas-support.nintend...imate-update-ver.-7.0.0---fighter-adjustments

And for an easier to read version. Quite a few changes, really. Shield size increase for a lot of fighters is interesting. Dark Samus got a slight gameplay difference from Samus(short amount of invincibility frames).

Young Link finally got some actual buffs.

 

[Ben Holt]

seems like some have already put the toy in the bottom of the toy box

I'll play any character. It's just kind of annoying that we have eight Fire Emblem characters. Realistically, we only needed Marth, Ike, Chrom, and Byleth to represent the high points of the series.
But I refuse to allow roster cuts, so I will defend them all to the death now.
Sakurai, please just give us more ****ing Zelda characters. Impa, Midna & Wolf Link, Tingle, Skull Kid, Revali, Toon Zelda, Tetra, and Demise as an Echo of Ganondorf!

 

[N3ON]

seems like some have already put the toy in the bottom of the toy box

I have to admit that I don't regularly play with all 81 of the others either. But I've tried each one.

But I refuse to allow roster cuts, so I will defend them all to the death now.

You may run into trouble if you stick around past Ultimate.

 

[Ben Holt]

You may run into trouble if you stick around past Ultimate.

Don't worry. I already wrote Sakurai a stern letter letting him know that I will give him 200 spankings for each cut character in the future.
Now let us pray that Sakurai isn't a sexual deviant.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Gonna be at work so how is the giant shield patch treating everyone?

 

[GoodGrief741]

I feel like a Joker esque pick wouldn't work again since anyone waiting for the first pick will also be very aware of the last pick.

Although part of me thinks they're planning on this, so when all 6 characters ARE fantastic, they get more money from people buying each one separately as they come out (since people are counting on a Byleth-style surpise). And the way FP1 is priced, they didn't lose any money since buying the first 4 is about the same as the whole pass... They're playing the long con on us.

I don't think the precedent of Smash always ending with a whimper will deter people. For this Pass we already had the precedent of every single game and DLC season before, hell, the last reveals were Incineroar and Piranha Plant, and people still bought the Pass in droves. Many even expected someone like Dante or Master Chief to end it.

That said, I could see a Joker-style character be less effective. Like you said, I think Joker worked in large part due to how unexpected he was and how he felt like opening the door to endless characters. At this point, there's virtually no character that people don't expect or think is impossible, so I can see the first character lacking the same impact.

 

[DarthEnderX]

*sigh*

Little Mac got nothing besides the same shield buff everyone else got...

So apparently Byleth's codename is Master. Imagine the salt if Master was datamined before Byleth's reveal.

Haha-holy-****, yes. That would have been a ****storm!

I will officially label it weird if we get Mii Costumes of FFNAF, Slenderman, and Angry Red Bird.

Not gonna lie, Freddy makes sense as a costume.

Cause he IS a costume.


Also, unrelated but...

 

[Krankees]

Downside to Joker getting nerfed: Arsene goes away faster.

Upside to Joker getting nerfed: I'll hear less complaining about Arsene carrying.

 

[Kokiden]

Downside to Joker getting nerfed: Arsene goes away faster.

Upside to Joker getting nerfed: I'll hear less complaining about Arsene carrying.

Don't forget down gun getting nerfed. It's hardly a small nerf if you ask me. They're both pretty significant imo.

Of course people are celebrating it...

https://twitter.com/dietsoda_9/status/1222366601397272576?s=21

Anyway general consensus seems to be that Byleth sucks speed and gameplay wise.

Can't say I like the idea of Byleth being this slow and bad, even if I was disappointed with his reveal.

No character should be a pain in the ass the play.

 

[DevaAshera]

So, I was setting songs for Garreg Mach Monastery when I noticed an oddity with the music for Fire Emblem Fates.


(Click to Enlarge)
As you can see, all but one song is listed as belonging to 'Fire Emblem IF', which is the Japanese title for it.

Everyone is probably playing safe right now, but really, the first character is going to set the mood for the second pass.

I agree.

The reason Joker was a big deal was less because how popular he was and more due to him being super unpredictable.

A character can be a good start for FP2 even if they are not a huge fan favorite.

He was still very popular. Persona 5 was the one of the biggest games released in 2017, it was even a contender for game of the year in many places along with Breath of the Wild, Super Mario Odyssey, and NieR Automata.

I feel like a Joker esque pick wouldn't work again since anyone waiting for the first pick will also be very aware of the last pick.

Although part of me thinks they're planning on this, so when all 6 characters ARE fantastic, they get more money from people buying each one separately as they come out (since people are counting on a Byleth-style surpise). And the way FP1 is priced, they didn't lose any money since buying the first 4 is about the same as the whole pass... They're playing the long con on us.

There are still characters that could do that.
Many have written off Sora due to Disney and a character more associated by some with anime, especially in the West, like Saber from the Fate series, could be a big surprise.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Saw this in one of my discords. Are there any characters not in Smash that you feel like 100% deserve to be in Smash. Like there are no counterpoints(or valid ones anyway, not that dumb **** where we had someone screaming that we cant have 2 DLC characters wearing trench coats in the game), no obvious reasons from them to not be in, and it feels like the only thing keeping them out is the fact they just haven't been picked yet. Overall, this character really should be here and them not being in it feels wrong.

I'm really not sure there is one. Inkling was the only slam dunk for me right off the bat and she was the first one taken care of. Interested in hearing opinions on this because it feels like all the must haves might be covered

Don't know if this is an unpopular opinion here but for me it's Bandana Waddle Dee.
Heavily requested, Waddle Dees being genarally iconic and marketable (especially in Japan), has been building himself up to be a mainstay character over the years, charming, would bring something unique to the table and Kirby's long overdue for another character and more up to date content.

The biggest argument against him was btfo a year ago so the only thing people can say against him now is ''he lame and boring '' which, unless said by another Kirby fan, is often based on ignorance and a lack of imagination.

Also Octolings, they're now basically as big of a part of Splatoon's identity as the Inklings are.

 

[Krankees]

Don't forget down gun getting nerfed. It's hardly a small nerf if you ask me. They're both pretty significant imo.

Of course people are celebrating it...

https://twitter.com/dietsoda_9/status/1222366601397272576?s=21

Anyway general consensus seems to be that Byleth sucks speed and gameplay wise.

Can't say I like the idea of Byleth being this slow and bad, even if I was disappointed with his reveal.

No character should be a pain in the ass the play.

Joker's obviously still gonna be a good character, he just got bit nerfed. It sucks but at least it doesn't totally ruin him.

As for Byleth, I don't know how they say she's bad gameplay wise. She's got good range and her Up-b combos are scary since you can't tech the bounce after around 100%. Plus her recovery is really good.

 

[RaintheCriminalWhirlwind]

I have to admit that I don't regularly play with all 81 of the others either. But I've tried each one.


You may run into trouble if you stick around past Ultimate.

Honestly, there is no way they are making another smash. How will they surpass this one?

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Not gonna lie... I'm a little disappointed in Byleth.

Don't get me wrong the character is still super fun to play but of all the DLC characters I fel like Byleth has the most unoriginal moveset design. It's very basic. It's fun, but it's basic. Granted Banjo is very basic as well but, I dunno, Byleth feels like a character made for Brawl...

I get why people would be underwhelmed by it, especially since most FE characters are already pretty basic, but I actually prefer Brawl style movesets. I don’t think it hurts to have a mix of unique movesets and more basic ones, for those of us that prefer the latter Smash 4’s newcomers were pretty disappointing since the only thing that seemed to matter was how far out there they could push a concept, which is always neat to see, but not always fun to play.

So apparently Byleth's codename is Master. Imagine the salt if Master was datamined before Byleth's reveal.

I can’t believe they added me to Smash.

 

[slrigeigdew]

I don't think the precedent of Smash always ending with a whimper will deter people. At this point, there's virtually no character that people don't expect or think is impossible, so I can see the first character lacking the same impact.

People always say this and yet they were caught off guard by Byleth of all people.

Also I hard agree with the first statement, this is why the arguments about character reveal orders always bore me. People complained about how the base roster ended and still bought the fighter's pass. Now people are complaining again about how the first fighter's pass ended and are still buying the second pass.

 

[Idon]

Honestly, there is no way they are making another smash. How will they surpass this one?

By making another one.

You realize Nintendo likes money, right?

 

[Kokiden]

Joker's obviously still gonna be a good character, he just got bit nerfed. It sucks but at least it doesn't totally ruin him.

As for Byleth, I don't know how they say she's bad gameplay wise. She's got good range and her Up-b combos are scary since you can't tech the bounce after around 100%. Plus her recovery is really good.

So long as they don't give him more nerfs...

I think for Byleth, it's the speed and her startup lag that is a huge issue. It allows faster characters, which is most of the roster given how slow she is, such an edge 1 vs 1.

For Ultimate, what I've experience is speed and reduced lag are such important factors in being able to do well. Of course, you'll need attack power on top of that too, otherwise you'll just end up with Sheik lol.

She's ok. Nothing to write home about and difficult to solo main in terms of viability. It's still early, but she doesn't feel good to manoeuvre generally speaking.

Honestly, there is no way they are making another smash. How will they surpass this one?

Improve the gameplay.

 

[Ben Holt]

Honestly, there is no way they are making another smash. How will they surpass this one?

I honestly think that the "theme" of the next Smash's roster will be adding in secondary characters from Third-party series already represented in Smash. E.G. Tails, Knuckles, Proto Man, Bass, X, Zero, Sephiroth, Chun Li, Raiden, etc.
I also think that the time is right for Indie reps. Shovel Knight, Frisk, Sans, Cuphead, and Shantae.

 

[Pinguino21v]

At this point, there's virtually no character that people don't expect or think is impossible, so I can see the first character lacking the same impact.

I agree on the "no character is impossible" part, but there is a difference between "impossible" and "improbable". There are still a truckload of rather big characters we are bringing on the table here sometimes - or that even are never brought on the table - that will have a big impact like Joker was, because they are improbable. Doomguy, Crash, Rayman or Dante are no more "improbable", they won't have nowadays the same impact than Joker had, but there are still high-requested, improbable and big characters picks like Sora or Master Chief, low-requested, improbable and big characters like a Sony rep or Warcraft rep, or even big black sheeps like Steve, Jonesy or a League of Legends rep.

Honestly, there is no way they are making another smash. How will they surpass this one?

Make controllers that don't drift.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Honestly, there is no way they are making another smash. How will they surpass this one?

They absolutely will make another Smash, but it's going to be an odd one as it's the first time where it's not going to be guaranteed that in terms of content it'll be better than its predecessor. I'm not sure what they'll do, I'm not sold on any of the reboot ideas I've heard, but there's no way that Ultimate is the last.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Honestly, there is no way they are making another smash. How will they surpass this one?

They won't. They'll either make a disappointing one. Or, if they're smart, they'll just make Ultimate Deluxe, and keep adding to Ultimate...forever.

 

[slrigeigdew]

Honestly, there is no way they are making another smash. How will they surpass this one?

Improve the gameplay, add more single player modes and rework some of the veterans to be more faithful to their the source material.

And that's without going into all the new potential newcomers they could add after the massive success of Ultimate.

 

[Calamitas]

That said, I could see a Joker-style character be less effective. Like you said, I think Joker worked in large part due to how unexpected he was and how he felt like opening the door to endless characters. At this point, there's virtually no character that people don't expect or think is impossible, so I can see the first character lacking the same impact.

Y'know, related to that, I had some thoughts about whether there's any first-party character that would be comparably unexpected. Only one I could think of was Waluigi.

 

[Mamboo07]

Y'know, related to that, I had some thoughts about whether there's any first-party character that would be comparably unexpected. Only one I could think of was Waluigi.

If I had to pick a first party rep that no-one would expect, It would be Shake King himself from Wario Land. (Would love to see more of him one day, he's pretty underrated.)

 

[Calamitas]

If I had to pick a first party rep that no-one would expect, It would be Shake King himself from Wario Land. (Would love to see more of him one day, he's pretty underrated.)

I mean, if barely anyone knows or cares about the character, it's hard for him to be expected. The reason why I thought of Waluigi is because people actually want him.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Hope no one posted this yet

Here's CupSans!

 

[Ben Holt]

Hope no one posted this yet

Here's CupSans!

View attachment 260144

The opposite was posted with a funny caption and got 30ish likes.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Played an hour or two of Byleth before I went to sleep yesterday.

Moveset-wise... I like the concept, but God, this character is definitely not my cup of tea. Strong and has some range, but most of it is linear range anyway (except nair and side b) and the lag in most of their moves is a big deal for me, moreso than their general speed.

I feel like most zoners in the game (especially high and top tier ones) will prevent Byleth from showing up too much in competitive.

On other notes, Spirit Battles were the easiest of the bunch for me (one of them literally killed itself lol) and Classic Mode was... something. Garreg Mach is pretty cool (finally another stage tied to a specific FE game).

 

[Ben Holt]

Played an hour or two of Byleth before I went to sleep yesterday.

Moveset-wise... I like the concept, but God, this character is definitely not my cup of tea. Strong and has some range, but most of it is linear range anyway (except nair and side b) and the lag in most of their moves is a big deal for me, moreso than their general speed.

I feel like most zoners in the game (especially high and top tier ones) will prevent Byleth from showing up too much in competitive.

On other notes, Spirit Battles were the easiest of the bunch for me (one of them literally killed itself lol) and Classic Mode was... something. Garreg Mach is pretty cool (finally another stage tied to a specific FE game).

I'm enjoying the Cuphead costume a lot.
I now understand the way Sans fans felt when they proclaimed that Sans was a playable character. But the Mii Gunner actually kinda feels like how Cuphead might play had he been a proper character.

 

[PSIGuy]

I've never heard of Nintendo retiring a franchise because it made too much money and they didn't know how to keep milking it. Smash will continue, although perhaps with a different audience in mind.

 

[Lionfranky]

Geno isn’t a piece of cake to obtain because he is obviously owned by someone who doesn’t or at least didn’t want to play ball. You can’t say just because one company is stingy that it means all of them are. And just because Sakurai promoted X-Box doesn’t mean Nintendo did. Nintendo are even less likely to do that because they have a ship they need to keep afloat. Like I said it doesn’t seem likely that Nintendo are going to get Chief. He is a mascot of a rival system who is also still receiving games. And even then just because Microsoft played ball with Banjo it doesn’t mean they’d play ball with Chief as they are in two completely different scenarios. One is dead, other is alive, one is a mascot, one is more associated with the company trying to get them etc etc. A lot of these arguments just make you seem like you are arguing for Chief just because you want him in the game and if so you shouldn’t be making assumptions based on bias. You should at least acknowledge what he has going against him instead of intentionally ignoring it and coming up with arguments that don’t apply much in the first place

That's the thing. Despite history with Nintendo, people still doubted their chance just because they've been owned by Microsoft. History with Nintendo means jack**** when Microsoft could've simply refused. Obviously, previous Xbox head would've refused Nintendo's request back in the day, but that changed. The reason I brought Geno is the same case with Banjo. Both are relatively obscure in grand scheme of gaming. My point is that Banjo opened the door. So called touted Xbox exclusives like Ori and Cuphead ended up in Switch. Sure, you can argue that they are not exactly first party, but that still proves MS's change of stance... or openess. I doubt you were so sure that Banjo would join Smash before reveal. Although MS may ask bigger pie for Chief, I doubt they would be that stingy like SquareEnix was regarding Cloud.

Benefit of Chief's inclusion
MS: Benefit of advertisement, expanding player base
Nintendo: Potential to attract players who were previously interested in Nintendo

I am not saying these are solid reasons, but these are not completely baseless. It depends on Nintendo's calculation, but I am sure they at least considered this when they approached Microsoft for Banjo.

I may be biased, but my claims and theory are not completely without bases.

 

[Curious Villager]

im 100% sure he knows of the memes is gives birth to. Quick, someone ask Sakurai is he likes puzzles!

Well there was that Meteos game he did a long time ago.
Which is odd that it never cameo'd in Smash, ever....
(Maybe the Brawl chronicles, I dunno....)

 

[Herocin]

That's the thing. Despite history with Nintendo, people still doubted their chance just because they've been owned by Microsoft. History with Nintendo means jack**** when Microsoft could've simply refused. Obviously, previous Xbox head would've refused Nintendo's request back in the day, but that changed. The reason I brought Geno is the same case with Banjo. Both are relatively obscure in grand scheme of gaming. My point is that Banjo opened the door. So called touted Xbox exclusives like Ori and Cuphead ended up in Switch. Sure, you can argue that they are not exactly first party, but that still proves MS's change of stance... or openess. I doubt you were so sure that Banjo would join Smash before reveal. Although MS may ask bigger pie for Chief, I doubt they would be that stingy like SquareEnix was regarding Cloud.

Benefit of Chief's inclusion
MS: Benefit of advertisement, expanding player base
Nintendo: Potential to attract players who were previously interested in Nintendo

I am not saying these are solid reasons, but these are not completely baseless. It depends on Nintendo's calculation, but I am sure they at least considered this when they approached Microsoft for Banjo.

I may be biased, but my claims and theory are not completely without bases.

I know they could have refused but they were a lot more likely to refuse to put Chief in the game than Banjo. He was a character who was associated with them, was requested for 20 years and was not having anything done with him or his series aside from the occasional bit of merch. Chief is the complete opposite of everything I just said. Someone pointed out that Banjo doesn’t open the door for Chief because he is synonymous with Nimtendo so much to an extent that Nintendo did more with the IP when they were associated with rare more than Microsoft despite owning rare for nearly 20 years and a lot longer than Nintendo had them as a second party dev. Banjo was up for the taking. And Nintendo would almost certainly try other means of getting a larger player base than putting a rival mascot in smash. There are better ways of trying to get a bigger audience that will affect only Nintendo instead of putting Chief in smash and advertising a rival console while they are at it. At least cloud wasn’t owned by Sony if that was a point you intended on mentioning.