Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Piranha Plant was also conveniently the only DLC character to get a Palutena's Guidance. Like I said before, that most likely points to it being planned for base game. Three Houses was also part of Season 1 DLC and thus doesn't really have an impact on Season 2 and beyond, when we talk about base game spirits.

Even if it wasn't planned for base roster, the spirit would be removed from the current total since it's tied to a character.

Seems just like that, base spirits were decided around the time as the first 6 DLC. Funny timing, right? That's why I don't think it means anything post-first pass.

Fully agreeing with you, if that's not clear enough.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

All this talk about spirit promotions and fanrules make me imagine the possibility of Sakurai going back on saying characters like Goku or Iron Man won't be in Smash because the "4th Party Character" thing is also a fanrule; it just hasn't been broken yet. It won't happen anyways, but adding a non-video game character would mark a definitive end to any sort of rules, whether if they're made up or official, in regards to adding a character to Smash.

I don't think it's a fanrule when Sakurai has said it wouldn't happen.

 

[Jomosensual]

I think Sakurai said something along the lines of Kirby being easy to copy without capturing him or something

Isn't Kirby also a species of .... whatever he is as well, like a Toad or Goomba? Feel like I heard that but IDK

 

[Cosmic77]

Do you have any counter arguments besides “W-WELL SAKURAI COULD!!!!” for anything that is presented as hits against Spirits?

Because that, and plugging your ears and screaming “FAN RULE FAN RULE FAN RULE” is all I have seen from thte pro Spirit camp. Its kind of funny how predictable it is at this point

No offense, but it feels like you're the one plugging their ears. There are valid counterarguments for all of your points, but you're getting upset because people are ignoring your "evidence".

Until we get more info, there's no point in trying to disprove anything. You're free to share an opinion and explain why you feel a certain way though.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Got a few questions for the people in the pro-Spirit upgrade camp that I am curious about.

If fighters 6 through 10 aren't Spirits would you still believe that Fighter 11 still has a good chance of being upgrade?

If Fighter 6 isn't a Spirit upgrade, would at all change your stance?

What was your stance on Spirit and Assist Trophy upgrades for Season 1? At least before Joker was revealed.

Lastly is your belief for thinking that Spirits are going to be upgrade because your most wanted is a Spirit or that is mostly due to you feeling like that is something likely gonna happen for Fighters Pass 2?

 

[Dukefire]

We are currently all in the same boat on wanting to know who's first for Season 2. So, not much progress will continue for some time till Sakurai and Nintendo is ready for the next broadcast

 

[Deleted member]

I don't think it's a fanrule when Sakurai has said it wouldn't happen.

*Aggressively cues "Ridley is too big" arguments*

 

[nessdeltarune00]

No offense, but it feels like you're the one plugging their ears. There are valid counterarguments for all of your points, but you're getting upset because people are ignoring your "evidence".

Until we get more info, there's no point in trying to disprove anything. You're free to share an opinion and explain why you feel a certain way though.

Could you list all of the counter arguments you were talking about? I would like to see them.

 

[Dukefire]

*Aggressively cues "Ridley is too big" arguments*

don't forget him saying that a animal crossing rep won't work due to its calm nature.

 

[Gamma Ray]

I laid it all out for you to see just now. (Though I probably was a bit hyperbolic)

Most of your arguments apply to the first fighters pass. Even the post you linked was arguing against spirit upgrades for the first wave of DLC. It was fairly obvious it was very unlikely any spirits would be upgraded within the first year considering DLC was decided before the game was released. Most people would've agreed with you there. I think that you don't consider that the second DLC wave is something entirely different for this argument. Characters who previously narrowly didn't make the cut and that were instead added as spirits could very easily have been reconsidered.

 

[Krankees]

All this talk about spirit promotions and fanrules make me imagine the possibility of Sakurai going back on saying characters like Goku or Iron Man won't be in Smash because the "4th Party Character" thing is also a fanrule; it just hasn't been broken yet. It won't happen anyways, but adding a non-video game character would mark a definitive end to any sort of rules, whether if they're made up or official, in regards to adding a character to Smash.

I like smash. I like Dragon Ball. But I don't think I'd want the two together. It wouldn't be a celebration of gaming anymore.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Got a few questions for the people in the pro-Spirit upgrade camp that I am curious about.

If fighters 6 through 10 aren't Spirits would you still believe that Fighter 11 still has a good chance of being upgrade?

If Fighter 6 isn't a Spirit upgrade, would at all change your stance?

What was your stance on Spirit and Assist Trophy upgrades for Season 1? At least before Joker was revealed.

Lastly is your belief for thinking that Spirits are going to be upgrade because your most wanted is a Spirit or that is mostly due to you feeling like that is something likely gonna happen for Fighters Pass 2?

Good chance? No. A chance? Yes. (This applies to all of the unrevealed DLC characters. Improbable, not impossible.)

No.

Pretty much the same.

I just don't believe that there is enough evidence to completely discount characters that are spirits, and discussion would be more fun with them than without them. Though I suppose it won't be if this is the extent of it.

 

[Dukefire]

Pretty much Season 2 is a new start on Character hopes. (including spirits. Not the Post DLC ones though)

 

[Jomosensual]

don't forget him saying that a animal crossing rep won't work due to its calm nature.

I suppose both of those are true, but he's said a number of times that this is a celebration of video games, so going and getting Shrek wouldn't make sense for that. And he's also not going to change his mind on every opinion he's had. Some things aren't going to change and 4th parties feels like a solid one.

 

[Cosmic77]

*Aggressively cues "Ridley is too big" arguments*

don't forget him saying that a animal crossing rep won't work due to its calm nature.

And don't forget Miyamoto wanting .

 

[BZocky]

The more I think about it, the more I’m convinced an Animal Crossing fighter has been slept on for Volume 2. For one thing, didn’t they tease what would become New Horizons at the end of Isabelle’s reveal trailer? It’s one of Nintendo’s biggest franchises and also one of those like Fire Emblem or Pokémon that is always introducing a ton of new characters.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I find it funny that people say it "wouldn't make sense" for a character to fight their own spirit and it would "go against the lore" and that's why the Mewtwo and Lucas trophies in Smash 4 don't matter because SpIrIts aRe ImpORtanT to ThE LoRE when there are literally Kirby clone battles in World of Light despite the fact that he never got captured, SMH.

No seriously, how on earth is that supposed to work? That's a plot hole bigger than the one in Kirby's stomach.

And if a character's Poke Ball/AT/cameo shows up during their battle, doesn't that mean a physical body for them exists? And how did certain Poke Balls/cameos sneak past the Galeem beams?

 

[Animegamingnerd]

I like smash. I like Dragon Ball. But I don't think I'd want the two together. It wouldn't be a celebration of gaming anymore.

I would sacrifice every single third party in Smash, if it meant preventing that nightmare from happening.

Also can we please stop using the term 4th party, there is no such thing as 4th party.
First Party = Characters and developers fully owned by Nintendo
Second Party = Developers not own by Nintendo, but make games published by Nintendo.
Third Party = Developers and character not at all own by Nintendo.
"Fourth Party" like Goku, Iron-Man etc would fall into the third party camp.

*Aggressively cues "Ridley is too big" arguments*

don't forget him saying that a animal crossing rep won't work due to its calm nature.

And don't forget Miyamoto wanting .

I think you are forgetting that we are talking about Spirits not being upgrade for this game, not the next game. Sakurai said those statements in relation to Brawl and Smash 4. Where Ridely wasn't playable in the former and none of those 3 were playable in Brawl.

 

[Homelessvagrant]

Do you have any counter arguments besides “W-WELL SAKURAI COULD!!!!” for anything that is presented as hits against Spirits?

Because that, and plugging your ears and screaming “FAN RULE FAN RULE FAN RULE” is all I have seen from thte pro Spirit camp. Its kind of funny how predictable it is at this point

technically anyone supporting spirits as a possibility doesn't have to prove a thing. Its the spirit deconfirm crowd that have to make a case. Its a matter of statistics, there isn't any proof on either side, so we have to conclude that it is a possibility. Therefore while "Spirits deconfirm" could theoretically be true, it means nothing for speculation.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

Most of your arguments apply to the first fighters pass. Even the post you linked was arguing against spirit upgrades for the first wave of DLC. It was fairly obvious it was very unlikely any spirits would be upgraded within the first year considering DLC was decided before the game was released. Most people would've agreed with you there. I think that you don't consider that the second DLC wave is something entirely different for this argument. Characters who previously narrowly didn't make the cut and that were instead added as spirits could very easily have been reconsidered.

The point I was trying to make is that Spirits are clearly seen much differently than playable characters. There is a clear distinction made by them from the way the devs see them (which explains why Three Houses didn’t get a Spirit event).

And here is the biggest smoking gun imo combined with everything else. All of the DLC newcomers have been third party/shill picks spanning back to 4.

If they have any plans on promoting any Spirits, why is it that those are conveniently the only things that have been missing Spirits?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

*Aggressively cues "Ridley is too big" arguments*

Sad part is? It wasn't actually wrong.

He had to create an all new model to shrink down, as well as fix the proportions.

It wasn't size so much as proportions anyway.

Sometimes he can't make a current model work for play, but making a new model is still quite possible and stuff like fan demand absolutely matters too. It also helps he made Ridley feel right, super powerful and terrifying. Sure, not great in the meta by all means, but... the point is still there. Just like Ganondorf, who always felt massively powerful regardless of how good he is in actual competitive play.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Sad part is? It wasn't actually wrong.

He had to create an all new model to shrink down, as well as fix the proportions.

It wasn't size so much as proportions anyway.

Sometimes he can't make a current model work for play, but making a new model is still quite possible and stuff like fan demand absolutely matters too. It also helps he made Ridley feel right, super powerful and terrifying. Sure, not great in the meta by all means, but... the point is still there. Just like Ganondorf, who always felt massively powerful regardless of how good he is in actual competitive play.

Yup judging Sakurai's statements with Ridley, he did tried in the past to make him playable before Ultimate, but wasn't happy with the results. But with Ultimate it seems like he decided to shallow his pride and give the insane demand for Ridley what they want.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Got a few questions for the people in the pro-Spirit upgrade camp that I am curious about.

If fighters 6 through 10 aren't Spirits would you still believe that Fighter 11 still has a good chance of being upgrade?

Do I think it might be likely? Nah. Do I still think it might be possible? Yes. Unless Sakurai outright comes and says there will be no spirits promoted as DLC then I don't see why I would remove the possibility from my head. To quote a certain blue haired swordsman "Anything can change!".

If Fighter 6 isn't a Spirit upgrade, would at all change your stance?

Nope, as a matter of fact I expect fighter 6 to be a third party character.

What was your stance on Spirit and Assist Trophy upgrades for Season 1? At least before Joker was revealed.

Deconfirmed. Timing was the main reason for that, and it's why I believe they have a chance in Season 2 now.

Lastly is your belief for thinking that Spirits are going to be upgrade because your most wanted is a Spirit or that is mostly due to you feeling like that is something likely gonna happen for Fighters Pass 2?

If my most wanted wasn't a spirit I would still believe there is reason to believe it's possible for a spirit to be playable in Season 2, at least for the base game spirits. Generally speaking I don't like hearing arguments about why characters can't be playable and whatnot, I heard enough about them back during Smash 4 that I dipped out of speculation for a bit.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Yup judging Sakurai's statements with Ridley, he did tried in the past to make him playable before Ultimate, but wasn't happy with the results. But with Ultimate it seems like he decided to shallow his pride and give the insane demand for Ridley what they want.

As I said, it wasn't just that; he had to make an all-new model for it. None worked.

Brawl he never tried, mind you. It's the first time he said he didn't know people really wanted him playable. 4 was the first possible attempt, though it's not clear if Pyrosphere's Ridley is actually an attempt or not. The interesting part is how he acts very similar to a proper playable character. Not input commands like Master Hand has had overall.

 

[MBRedboy31]

The more I think about it, the more I’m convinced an Animal Crossing fighter has been slept on for Volume 2. For one thing, didn’t they tease what would become New Horizons at the end of Isabelle’s reveal trailer? It’s one of Nintendo’s biggest franchises and also one of those like Fire Emblem or Pokémon that is always introducing a ton of new characters.

Who would you say they’d pick? There isn’t a new character in New Horizons in particular that they’ve been trying to play up as being important. The biggest features they’ve been talking about are things like the NookPhone and crafting, so, are you saying that you think they are going to promote Nook now? I guess there could be another new character that they’d reveal between now and release and hype up more so even after release, but IDK if that’d matter. The game would also have to be close enough to finished by now for Sakurai to have to have played it before deciding on the second pass.

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

As I said, it wasn't just that; he had to make an all-new model for it. None worked.

Brawl he never tried, mind you. It's the first time he said he didn't know people really wanted him playable. 4 was the first possible attempt, though it's not clear if Pyrosphere's Ridley is actually an attempt or not. The interesting part is how he acts very similar to a proper playable character. Not input commands like Master Hand has had overall.

I'm just glad that it worked, and that there's no other characters left nonplayable in as unique a situation as he was.

Unless an upswelling in support for Andross and Mother Brain happens between now and the next Smash.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I'm just glad that it worked, and that there's no other characters left nonplayable in as unique a situation as he was.

Unless an upswelling in support for Andross and Mother Brain happens between now and the next Smash.

Heh. ...Though to be fair, the only Mother Brain design I really like is the Captain N one. But tank style is cool, so eh. Her current design, that is, the monster one, is a lot easier to shrink. Hell, so is Kraid.

Andross just needs a clear body first to use. Then the rest is a lot easier.

 

[Wunderwaft]

I'm just glad that it worked, and that there's no other characters left nonplayable in as unique a situation as he was.

Unless an upswelling in support for Andross and Mother Brain happens between now and the next Smash.

Same dude. I'm just glad I no longer have to hear "too big" ever again besides in jokes.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I think most of the times when Sakurai says that a fighter isn't realizable in Smash, it's because they don't "dance in his head", as he's previously put it. Pac-Man was the example given iirc as he initially just imagined the old school cheese sprite when the character was first suggested to him, but when Smash 4 rolled around the idea suddenly clicked for him. Villager was likely another case of this, and Ridley absolutely was. I think he tends to go with the characters that make the most sense to him in the moment, the ones which come naturally to him, I don't get the sense that he's ever forced himself to put a character in the game, and because none of us are mind readers, that can make Sakurai's picks seem fairly volatile from the outside, as well as invalidate some of his previous reasonings (like the "no fighting game characters" argument he brought up during Smash 4's development, only to break in the very same game).

 

[Hadokeyblade]

And if a character's Poke Ball/AT/cameo shows up during their battle, doesn't that mean a physical body for them exists? And how did certain Poke Balls/cameos sneak past the Galeem beams?

The phantom thieves gathered as many of them as they could and his inside Galeems palace in the metaverse. Boom, came up with a good story idea.

 

[SpectreJordan]

Look. I get it. Series he "likes" or writes about don't have any perks in the grand scheme of it all, but I think it at least points to something. Statements on Kingdom Hearts and the parallel he draws from it to Smash or his article gushing about the story of Nier: Automata and the entire Nier and Drakengard series (along with the [E]xperience in Ultimate) are points worthy of speculating on instead of being just thrown to the side.

I didn’t know he had gushed about Nier like he did Persona 5. That could end up being a good sign for 2B IMO. Ever since Joker was revealed, I’ve felt she’s in a similar position to him. A pretty recent character from a critically acclaimed & beloved Japanese game that’s one of the best games this gen.

Ok, so a New Capcom rep is a pretty popular pick.

Whats your Top 5 most wanted Capcom characters for next pass?
(Rule time, to make things interesting, they can’t be from Megaman or Street Fighter)


5) Cody / Guy / Haggar / Maki (Final Fight)
4) Morrigan (Dark Stalkers)
3) Dante (DMC)
2) Viewtiful Joe
1) Nathan “Radd” Spencer (Bionic Commando)

Bonus! A new Mii fighter costume for each.

Brawler: Frank West
Gunner: Chris Redfield
Swordsman: Strider Hiryu

1.) Dante
2.) Claire Redfield
3.) Haggar
4.) Amateratsu
5.) Phoenix Wright

I’m sure Resident Evil is out of the running BUT Claire wasn’t among the spirits. So maybe she has a very slim chance? Lol

Speaking of which, with the recent deconfirmations of Resident Evil & Doom I think characters from notably gory series are out of the running. Resident Evil & Doom had so much going for them; fan demand, moveset potential, coming from highly popular/important game series, etc...

But RE got Spirited away & Doom is apparently being completely ignored. I have to imagine it’s because of the gore found in those series (though old school Doom isn’t that gory in modern standards). Nintendo/Sakurai must not want Smash being too closely associated with gory series. The 3 M rated series represented so far have some blood, but nothing on the level of Resident Evil or the modern Doom games.

So this would rule out the likes of Scorpion & Kratos (not that they were likely anyway), but I’d say characters like Master Chief, 2B, Gordon Freeman & Dante are safe. Not sure where that’d leave Ryu Hayabusa though. The old school games are clean, as are the Dead or Alive games but the modern Ninja Gaiden games seem fairly bloody.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Speaking of which, with the recent deconfirmations of Resident Evil & Doom I think characters from notably gory series are out of the running. Resident Evil & Doom had so much going for them; fan demand, moveset potential, coming from highly popular/important game series, etc...

But RE got Spirited away & Doom is apparently being completely ignored. I have to imagine it’s because of the gore found in those series (though old school Doom isn’t that gory in modern standards). Nintendo/Sakurai must not want Smash being too closely associated with gory series. The 3 M rated series represented so far have some blood, but nothing on the level of Resident Evil or the modern Doom games.

So this would rule out the likes of Scorpion & Kratos (not that they were likely anyway), but I’d say characters like Master Chief, 2B, Gordon Freeman & Dante are safe. Not sure where that’d leave Ryu Hayabusa though. The old school games are clean, as are the Dead or Alive games but the modern Ninja Gaiden games seem fairly bloody.

We have Bayonetta in the game, the gore in the original games isn't the main reason why those characters weren't chosen.

 

[andree123]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/657498848968704001/670404751707602984/image0-7.png
FP6 is probably going to be a character that is hard to work on.
Also, I'm thinking that we may get a new pre-e3 2020 direct that only focuses on one upcoming game.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

Look. I get it. Series he "likes" or writes about don't have any perks in the grand scheme of it all, but I think it at least points to something. Statements on Kingdom Hearts and the parallel he draws from it to Smash or his article gushing about the story of Nier: Automata and the entire Nier and Drakengard series (along with the [E]xperience in Ultimate) are points worthy of speculating on instead of being just thrown to the side.

He literally wrote a letter to Kodaka gushing about the Danganronpa series and congratulating him for his new studio opening.

While I do agree with some of your points, just know that this applies to many MWs out there.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/657498848968704001/670404751707602984/image0-7.png
FP6 is probably going to be a character that is hard to work on.
Also, I'm thinking that we may get a new pre-e3 2020 direct that only focuses on one upcoming game.

Iirc Zippo also said FP5 wasn’t a Nintendo character so I’m not putting any stock into what he says

 

[snowgolem]

So, what’s happened while I’ve been gone?

 

[SpectreJordan]

We have Bayonetta in the game, the gore in the original games isn't the main reason why those characters weren't chosen.

It’s been a while since I played Bayo 1 (still need to play 2), but I don’t remember it being on the same level of gore as RE/Doom.

Also, I really doubt we go all the way until E3 without knowing the next character. They have to know that Pass sales will be sluggish until we know who the first character is.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

Iirc Zippo also said FP5 wasn’t a Nintendo character so I’m not putting any stock into what he says

Didn’t he hint at Fire Emblem at the last second?

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

What's the evidence? Sakurai's vague statements where he differentiated between spirits and fighters because they were a new concept introduced in Ultimate? Or do you mean the pattern of "there were no spirits playable in the first fighters pass so that means there will be no spirits playable in the second fighters pass"?

Neither of these two points are strong evidence for why we won't get a spirit promoted as DLC. The second fighters pass was decided after the base game was released, the main reasoning why people believed spirits couldn't be promoted for the first fighters pass is because it was decided during the base game development. The only things that are truly deconfirmed are the mii costumes and spirits that were released as DLC. Timing is the main argument for why spirits can't be playable, and not just because they are PNG images.

Timing is most certainly not my main argument for spirit upgrades.

It’s the overall package of a fighter pack, as well as precedence.

Many of the first party picks that folks have suggested aren’t a protagonist, whereas literally every single other DLC pick has been exactly that: the lead character of their respective game. In addition, the only two Nintendo-owned picks were from relevant games of the era, and they both happened to come from the same game.

Now, it’s typical that “side characters” don’t get added before their lead character in a given series.

But here’s the next part: The Challenger Packs more or less have all come with entirely new content. This means that there’s nothing that hasn’t already been in the game prior. While Fire Emblem Three Houses is definitely part of the Fire Emblem series (which has been in Smash for awhile) the individual title was nowhere to be found. Other series, like Kirby, Mario, or Zelda, do not have that same situation.

It is based on precedent, and precedent that is clear and provable, that these things occur. The protagonist or mascot is typically the one chosen and, to this point, we’ve only ever gotten 1st parties from relevant games of the era.

Could that change? Maybe. But I’m not quite sure that after 9 DLC newcomers, Sakurai wouldn’t suddenly change his entire approach and add side characters.

With Spirits, Three Houses was speculated to get somebody based on the lack of spirits in an event. Astral Chain and other series got the boot from speculation, so while this wasn’t really the point you made, I don’t really get why certain series are exempt from this disconfirmation when it seems pretty clear that spirits have been saved for actual character releases.

It simply seems more like a lot of hypotheticals rather than “here’s a reason to expect this”. That’s what I’m waiting for, because believe me...I’d love to see Rex, or Rayman, or somebody else get upgraded. But I simply don’t believe they will based on precedent and evidence.

 

[andree123]

So, what’s happened while I’ve been gone?

Two rumors about Crash Bandicoot being FP6.