Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[osby]

What about base game Spirits?

I think they'll simply go for new games, tbh.

 

[Krankees]

Hard disagree. Spirits don't disconfirm anything until Sakurai explicitly states this. We've been wrong too many times to assume anything.

I think he has a point because there's a possibility we could go through the entire vol. 2 dlc without a single spirit upgrade.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

And Goku, Spongebob and Iron Man, according to Sakurai

I'm not sure who keeps on voting for Iron Man, as they're rarely brought up in the same way Goku, Shrek and Spongebob are, but more power to them I guess

I mean yeah that goes without saying... which is it kinda weird he didn’t mention Gundam as Japan supposedly wants Gundam in Smash but that’s not a video game character

unless they mean THIS Gund(h)am:

 

[JustMyself13]

Don’t know if this was mentioned yet, but the River City spirits start at 1394 despite the Astral Chain spirits ending at 1379, meaning the Three Houses spirits are in-between those for some reason. Just thought it was interesting.

 

[Curious Villager]

Don’t know if this was mentioned yet, but the River City spirits start at 1394 despite the Astral Chain spirits ending at 1379, meaning the Three Houses spirits are in-between those for some reason. Just thought it was interesting.

Yeah its been brought up a few times. Not sure why that is.
The River City spirits where probably released a bit early to pass the time for Byleth's release I suppose....

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Why does Dimitri have the fire emblem in parentheses, who else on the spirit board is dimitri - five years later

Perhaps it's a hint to one of the 6 season 2 characters? I can't think of any other Dimitri aside from the Darkstalkers one though.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Spirits arguments will last until one side is proven wrong, both sides are obstinate and will not move an inch until we either get a promotion or the final fighter is revealed and we don't. I personally don't believe anything developed during the base game prohibits something from later being DLC. The only exception I'm giving is Pokemon SWSH because:

A) Those spirits were released to commemorate the game's release and weren't randomly placed.
B) None of the spirits were frontrunners in regards to being the possible reps from that game.
C) SWSH has an extended lifespan since it's getting DLC.
D) If there is one franchise that has a slot years in advance even without deciding who the fighter could be, it's Pokemon.

 

[Curious Villager]

Perhaps it's a hint to one of the 6 season 2 characters? I can't think of any other Dimitri aside from the Darkstalkers one though.

The dodongo buddy from the Oracle Zelda's is called Dimitri and is a spirit, Its probably because of that...

 

[Will]

Perhaps it's a hint to one of the 6 season 2 characters?

okay let's not get crazy

 

[JustMyself13]

Perhaps it's a hint to one of the 6 season 2 characters? I can't think of any other Dimitri aside from the Darkstalkers one though.

I don’t think so. I remember Leon being labeled specifically as (Resident Evil 4) as well which made people think RE2 Leon was next.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I don’t think so. I remember Leon being labeled specifically as (Resident Evil 4) as well which made people think RE2 Leon was next.

Was that removed at some point? I just checked and that's not there.

 

[Flyboy]

Perhaps it's a hint to one of the 6 season 2 characters? I can't think of any other Dimitri aside from the Darkstalkers one though.

It's because Dimitri the Dodongo is in the game as seen here.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Only characters I'd completely write off are 3rd parties that have mii costumes or DLC spirits. They've been decided after the fact and the negotiations are already done on them.

Assist Trophies, I'd also write off but there's a little niggling "unless..." about them.

Base game spirits, it's the same as the base game trophies in Smash 4.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Only characters I'd completely write off are 3rd parties that have mii costumes or spirits. They've been decided after the fact and the negotiations are already done on them.

Assist Trophies, I'd also write off but there's a little niggling "unless..." about them.

Base game spirits, it's the same as the base game trophies in Smash 4.

Shantae, Rising!Raiden and Rayman are base game third party Spirits, not Event Spirits added after release. Then again I doubt Rayman’s happening anyway

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Shantae, Rising!Raiden and Rayman are base game third party Spirits, not Event Spirits added after release. Then again I doubt Rayman’s happening anyway

I added DLC to the original post as all base game spirits are in the same boat IMO.

Rayman, I don't think so but that's because the Mii Costumes that would have tagged along with him (Rabbid and Altair) came with Byleth instead.

 

[MisterMike]

I think it's gonna be April. It's far away enough from FP5 that I could see it being possible, while the dead air of absolutely nothing isn't ridiculously long (3 months instead of 5 months is pretty significant). We haven't had reason to believe anything major, that's not a fighter, is coming between Byleth and E3. That being said, we probably won't be able to play as them until around E3, and we're definitely getting a character reveal there.

One thing that's a reasonable estimate is that in Super Smash Bros., development of newcomers often have them start out as older newcomers or veterans. While this is obvious for Echoes like Daisy and even semis like Young/Toon Link and Isabelle, what you may not know is that evidence suggests that most Smash Bros. newcomers, even the most unique ones, use other characters as a base. Evidence suggests, for example, that the template for Wolf in Brawl was, indeed, based off of Fox's, even though the two of them are not clones. This article from Source Gaming has evidence stating that Cloud and Bayonetta were (at least in terms of stats) designed using Ike and Zero Suit Samus (ignore the title, it's not about the Ballot), as well as stating this is the case for Captain Falcon and Little Mac. In Ultimate, there is evidence supporting the ideas that Ridley and Piranha Plant used Charizard and Bowser Jr., respectively, for their templates, as leftover data from the latter two is found in their files. It's likely there's still a few characters made from scratch, but I believe that every Ultimate newcomer (except Inklings, who are so unlike everybody else I can't think of a base character) had a base.

With that in mind, who would your top few characters use as a base, or are they so unlike anybody else that they would absolutely be made from scratch? Remember three things about bases.

• They do not mean your character would be an Echo Fighter of the parent character, of the character. In fact, they might be so different as to be unrecognizable. I, for one, would have guessed Piranha Plant to have been made from scratch were it not for evidence to suggest Bowser Jr. was at least partially used as a base.
• It's possible that there can be more than one base character, as the body type of one character matches, but the moves of another would also match up.
• They should be separate "generations": that is, these are Volume 2 characters, they won't use other Volume 2 characters as a base, unless we get Echo Fighters of Volume 2's fighters. I can see them using Volume 1 characters as a base, though, and everybody older than Piranha Plant is definitely fair game.

1. I think Arle would use Zelda as her base. Zelda in Ultimate is no longer her stoic, reserved self, but much more open and cheery, which fits Arle's personality more. In terms of moves, if Arle's mage aspects were to be played up, Zelda would fit perfectly as her magic is not that dissimilar to Arle's, particularly Fireball and Din's Fire.
   1. With Arle I am making an assumption that her proportions are more like 20th's, not Chronicle, or designed like her classic self. If she's closer to Chronicle, then Lucas could be a base character instead, as his moves have elements that match up with Arle's.
2. Crash would ABSOLUTELY use Incineroar as a base. The neutral special of Incineroar's, Darkest Lariat, has it do a spin attack that resembles Crash's heavily. Also, the down smash is a belly flop. Both of these are moves that Crash uses in his games, and would not be very difficult to repurpose into the iconic attacks of his.
3. Paper Mario would likely use Mr. Game and Watch, for extremely obvious reasons. As they are both 2D, it would allow PM to have his abilities and design be properly replicated in their natural look. Plus, Mr. Game & Watch also has Judge, which is a hammer based attack. Honorable mention to Rosalina or Icies if a partner system is in play, as well as Icies or Dedede for more normal hammer based attacks.
4. Frisk is gonna have Ness used as a base for the model, but the moveset would likely have to be made from scratch. Frisk is likely to be a child around the height of Ness, Lucas and Icies.
5. Lloyd is perhaps the hardest one, but I think his model would use Roy as a base, while his moveset is closer to Mii Swordfighter. Roy's proportions fit Lloyd's design very well (maybe Chrom is closer in outfit, but I see Lloyd as using the Material Blades, and the Binding Blade already has the fire half down). Meanwhile, Mii Swordfighter has two moves that resemble Lloyd's: Blurring Blade (NB3) resembles Sword Rain, and Airborne Assault heavily resembles Tempest. Honorable mention to Kirby, whose Final Cutter laser somewhat resembles a Demon Fang.

These are just my guesses, though. If anybody else has a take on the five above, then I'd be interested in seeing theirs.

I got a few I could name:

1. Geno would use either Mega Man or Mii Gunner as a base, since both of them are very projectile heavy characters.
2. Sora would probably use Cloud as a base since their movement (running animation, most basic attacks, and some special moves) would be pretty similar.
3. Waluigi would most likely use Luigi as a base due to their height and general shape being very similar. Either that or his Assist Trophy.

You know, "Spirits can't be playable" and "Spirits won't be playable" are two different arguments and only the first one is unfounded.

If you act like no argument against Spirit promotions has any supporting evidence, that's attacking a strawman.

Well it's a good thing I wasn't attacking that argument then, isn't it?

...
Anyway, Spirits deconfirm characters. Especially the recent Spirit events we've been getting.

I should probably clarify that I don't think that all Spirits don't disconfirm characters, just the DLC ones, since if they were planning on adding a character as DLC, they wouldn't have added their Spirit in the first place.

Why does Dimitri have the fire emblem in parentheses, who else on the spirit board is dimitri - five years later

WHO DO YOU THINK?!

 

[Flik]

Honestly, Spirits Deconfirm Characters fan rule doesn't make sense.

It was correct for Fighter Pass 1. We still don't know if spirits were under consideration for Vol. 2 (and there's a good chance that we will never know)

Perhaps it's a hint to one of the 6 season 2 characters? I can't think of any other Dimitri aside from the Darkstalkers one though.

Close enough, it's Demitri lol

 

[slrigeigdew]

I think the Spirits debate is going to end up like the first party DLC debate. A spirit will be upgraded to playable but it's not going to be the character everyone was hoping for.

My money's still on a Gen 8 Pokemon.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I added DLC to the original post as all base game spirits are in the same boat IMO.

Rayman, I don't think so but that's because the Mii Costumes that would have tagged along with him (Rabbid and Altair) came with Byleth instead.

That and from what I read once Rayman games are usually financial flops in Japan

 

[SNEKeater]

I think the Spirits debate is going to end up like the first party DLC debate. A spirit will be upgraded to playable but it's not going to be the character everyone was hoping for.

My money's still on a Gen 8 Pokemon.

So I guess it's true that in the end Baboom always wins.

 

[SonicMario]

WHO DO YOU THINK?!
View attachment 259488

Damn, Dimitri of Fire Emblem has a rough future of being turned into a monster lizard :V

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Video from papagenos

Said be cautious about the Mandycan thing and did talk

But however there’s somewhat potentially a element of truth with another leaker that also claimed crash as 6

 

[Deleted member]

Video from papagenos

Said be cautious about the Mandycan thing and did talk

But however there’s somewhat potentially a element of truth with another leaker that also claimed crash as 6

Why would I listen to the one who attacked byleth?

and made those arle coincidences

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Why would I listen to the one who attacked byleth?

and made those arle coincidences

So what if it’s first hate he did on a reveal not everybody has to love a character

Besides a vast majority of people hated the reveal I liked the byleth reveal though

It’s just the simple “STOP WITH THE SWORD CHARACTERS!” and “NO MORE FIRE EMBLEM CHARACTERS!”

And alre was just his biggest theory based on everything has happen and just not happy he was wrong and got overconfident
,

 

[ThatOneAnon]

PapaGenos freaking the **** out about Byleth then later claiming he faked it has a real big Onision energy.

 

[Neverx]

PapaGenos freaking the **** out about Byleth then later claiming he faked it has a real big Onision energy.

Dude has been a sham forever, can anyone name something he got right? He got himself so hyped on Arle over speculation on Sakurai's pictures he was releasing on twitter. If anything I hope Sakurai and Nintendo continues to hide future characters like they did with Byleth to further prove that these "leakers" and "rumors" are false because they usually are.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I firmly believe folks misunderstand where the skepticism of spirit upgrades stems from.

It is the not the fact that pngs exist and that Sakurai is somehow not able to go past a png.

It’s the concept of what Spirits are, and the fact that some have been withheld for particular times and others have not, added onto the fact that they function as if they were actually the character themselves as a concept.

The argument is that for two straight scenarios of Smash DLC (as in, this is based on evidence and precedent) the only DLC newcomers to Smash have been 3rd party characters that bring a stage, music, and spirits (Ultimate), or relevant first party newcomers that just so happen to both be from recent Fire Emblem games. On top of that, every DLC choice has been a main protagonist from said game or franchise.

There’s also the fact that Sakurai has seemingly suggested in the past that non-playable roles count just as much as playable ones in the crossover. He also said he would like to continue the crossover, and “improve on the record”.

Now, it’s not a rule that this will “absolutely, positively” play out this way. But this idea? The fact that previous evidence suggests another potential outcome? There’s stuff out there, like the things I mentioned, that lead to one potential inclusion.

I would absolutely entertain the idea that spirits aren’t disconfirmations if someone proposed an argument, with evidence, that suggests it’s going to happen. I have seen nothing but hypothetical situations. But when I propose stuff based on actual precedent, actual evidence, I get hit with the invalid response of, “Lalalalalala fan rule fan rule fan rule”. Just because you don’t agree with it doesn’t mean it’s a fan rule, and never have I passed it off as such.

It should also be noted that the function of spirits is quite different from trophies, and based on the way they are added to the game, I don’t know that trophies are a proper equivalent argument. That could be up for discussion.

It’s not impossible for spirit upgrades. I never said it was. I have said in the past that it seems unlikely to happen based on what I’ve read. It’s one thing to want something to happen, but wanting it or saying, “X character is popular!” Is not a strong piece of evidence in this case, at least for me.

Alas, I can continue this later. Some folks have made decent points, but again, hypothetical outcomes aren’t evidence of likelihood. Responding to a question, when the question is based on precedent, with a hypothetical such as, “Well Sakurai could” is not evidence and does not have the same gravitas. At least, as an English teacher, I feel that way, lol.

PS- I DO want to point out that the whole time Season 1 was a thing, I explicitly said that while I thought Pick 5 would be 3rd party, Astral Chain or Three Houses could be added as an exception to what I believed would be a lack of first parties.

I wasn’t wrong.

 

[Sari]

I never really kept up with PapaGenos that much, but the fact that he recently speculated on newcomers with Blocked Content and freaking LaxChris says all I need to know about him when it comes to Smash speculation.

 

[RoboFist]

PapaGenos freaking the **** out about Byleth then later claiming he faked it has a real big Onision energy.

Been a big fan of Papa from the start because he seemed to be the only person with a brain talking about potential leaks on YouTube. He had this really chill DIY vibe and always prefaced his videos with "PLEASE remember that this is all speculation in good fun and impossible to prove until we see it."

And I remember when he revealed he faked his Byleth reaction and like...I got it. He attempted something funny and the joke fell flat. But my gut reaction was "Oh no, my dude, you have a relatively huge following now, you can't pull this kind of stuff without getting called out big time."

I think he's a good guy who's just trying to share his opinions, get some facts straight, and **** around on YouTube. But I think he's naive as to how to do that now that a chunk of the Smash community follows him. His "having fun" is seen as lies or drama because some people take every scrap of news way too seriously. Hell, people are still giving him sh*t over Grinch leak.

He doesn't want to have the doors to his channel/Twitter knocked down by a proverbial mob just for joking around. Maybe he should quit ththe speculation game for a sec and upload different content until something more concrete comes up? I don't know, I don't envy his position haha.

 

[Gamma Ray]

Spirits disconfirm until we have evidence that they don't.

I still think that "spirits don't disconfirm until we have evidence they do" is a better way to go about it. Otherwise we're just excluding characters based on assumptions from fans, though I guess that's what Smash speculation boils down to a lot of the time (and it's also why people are often wrong).

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I think the Spirits debate is going to end up like the first party DLC debate. A spirit will be upgraded to playable but it's not going to be the character everyone was hoping for.

My money's still on a Gen 8 Pokemon.

Placing bets on Rayman. Ubisoft deserves a rep already dangit.

 

[PhantomShab]

Why would I listen to the one who attacked byleth?

Lmao

 

[RileyXY1]

Placing bets on Rayman. Ubisoft deserves a rep already dangit.

I don't think that's happening because Rayman is hated in Japan for some reason.

 

[Wunderwaft]

I don't think that's happening because Rayman is hated in Japan for some reason.

There's a difference between being hated and being unpopular.

 

[Cosmic77]

There's no point in debating Spirits because both sides lack any solid evidence. The best argument for Spirits being deconfirmations is "It's never happened before, so it's probably not happening at all." The best argument for Spirits not being deconfirmations is a lack of first-party options without Spirits and some blind optimism.

You can type up the most convincing, detailed essay imaginable explaining your stance on Spirits, but you could save everyone a lot of time by summarizing what you really mean. "It's my opinion that Spirits do/don't deconfirm characters."

 

[Freduardo]

And Goku, Spongebob and Iron Man, according to Sakurai

I'm not sure who keeps on voting for Iron Man, as they're rarely brought up in the same way Goku, Shrek and Spongebob are, but more power to them I guess

Iron Man gets brought up for two reasons
1) MCU is ridiculously popular.
2) It is really easy to make a good looking Iron Man Mii And Mii Gunner. So a lot of people are used to playing as him.

 

[SuperSceptile15]

Unpopular opinion, I know, but I think Banjo was the weakest of the fighters pass characters.
Banjo is lacking in everything:
>Less spirits
>Less overall music aside from Hero (insert muh remixes here even though Terry already mogs him)
>Worst stage
>Lackluster moveset
Good for the fans who wanted him, but the other characters have far more to offer imo.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

Hard disagree. Spirits don't disconfirm anything until Sakurai explicitly states this. We've been wrong too many times to assume anything.

He kind of did though.

He clearly made a distinction between Spirits and playable fighters during the 11/1/18 Direct. And in my eyes, there has been enough evidence that Spirits likely deconfirm.

 

[TheCJBrine]

I firmly believe folks misunderstand where the skepticism of spirit upgrades stems from.

It is the not the fact that pngs exist and that Sakurai is somehow not able to go past a png.

It’s the concept of what Spirits are, and the fact that some have been withheld for particular times and others have not, added onto the fact that they function as if they were actually the character themselves as a concept.

The argument is that for two straight scenarios of Smash DLC (as in, this is based on evidence and precedent) the only DLC newcomers to Smash have been 3rd party characters that bring a stage, music, and spirits (Ultimate), or relevant first party newcomers that just so happen to both be from recent Fire Emblem games. On top of that, every DLC choice has been a main protagonist from said game or franchise.

There’s also the fact that Sakurai has seemingly suggested in the past that non-playable roles count just as much as playable ones in the crossover. He also said he would like to continue the crossover, and “improve on the record”.

Now, it’s not a rule that this will “absolutely, positively” play out this way. But this idea? The fact that previous evidence suggests another potential outcome? There’s stuff out there, like the things I mentioned, that lead to one potential inclusion.

I would absolutely entertain the idea that spirits aren’t disconfirmations if someone proposed an argument, with evidence, that suggests it’s going to happen. I have seen nothing but hypothetical situations. But when I propose stuff based on actual precedent, actual evidence, I get hit with the invalid response of, “Lalalalalala fan rule fan rule fan rule”. Just because you don’t agree with it doesn’t mean it’s a fan rule, and never have I passed it off as such.

It should also be noted that the function of spirits is quite different from trophies, and based on the way they are added to the game, I don’t know that trophies are a proper equivalent argument. That could be up for discussion.

It’s not impossible for spirit upgrades. I never said it was. I have said in the past that it seems unlikely to happen based on what I’ve read. It’s one thing to want something to happen, but wanting it or saying, “X character is popular!” Is not a strong piece of evidence in this case, at least for me.

Alas, I can continue this later. Some folks have made decent points, but again, hypothetical outcomes aren’t evidence of likelihood. Responding to a question, when the question is based on precedent, with a hypothetical such as, “Well Sakurai could” is not evidence and does not have the same gravitas. At least, as an English teacher, I feel that way, lol.

PS- I DO want to point out that the whole time Season 1 was a thing, I explicitly said that while I thought Pick 5 would be 3rd party, Astral Chain or Three Houses could be added as an exception to what I believed would be a lack of first parties.

I wasn’t wrong.

I've tried basing my arguments off of stuff Sakurai has said/done in the past (not just hypotheticals, and I'd say "Spirits Disconfirm" is also hypothetical compared to what I've included in my points (I guess everything we say is hypothetical, to be honest, since we don't know what's really going on)) and how games like SMRPG are pretty much in the same boat as TH aside from a spirit or two (in terms of how much new characters/stuff they can bring) and being older, but no one on the "Spirits Disconfirm" side has discussed them. It may not happen, but it's certainly possible, I'd say 50/50 for at least one basegame spirit. If no spirits get in as playable, then I believe it's not because they're a spirit, rather because Sakurai decided to prioritize other characters. I think trophies are a good example at this point, as they show Sakurai may keep an open mind and reconsider some characters within the same game's DLC's lifespan (since the trophies indicate he originally didn't plan to make them playable), certainly the characters that have plenty they can add to Smash. Spirits may work differently from trophies, but since there's even spirits for the fighters themselves and equippable spirits for variations of them, I'm sure they won't be any different than trophies when it comes to considering playable characters (as for characters in as spirits only with no variations, they could still add something like "(Game)" to the spirit's name, while using a different sprite or other artwork for the character's fighter spirit, if not just their Ultimate render like Robin, Cloud, and Wii Fit Trainer (in Geno's case, they could use the sprite of his star, the sprite of him in the doll, or artwork from a jigsaw puzzle (if they can find said art with high-quality))).

Also, based on what he said about the Geno costume (https://www.eventhubs.com/news/2016...ans-one-most-requested-smash-bros-characters/), I'm sure he's aware mii costumes and stuff are like a "better than nothing, at least they're kinda cool"-type deal instead of being just as good as a playable character. They all count for the crossover, but he seems aware the fighters are the "coolest" thing for many.

It's fine to think they're not gonna happen, of course, I'm just sayin'.

I know I said I was done since it seemed no one else discussed my points, but eh, why not; to be fair, I presented them for everyone and didn't quote all the people arguing spirits, so meh. I guess I just didn't feel up to it in that post.

 

[Cosmic77]

He kind of did though.

He clearly made a distinction between Spirits and playable fighters during the 11/1/18 Direct. And in my eyes, there has been enough evidence that Spirits likely deconfirm.

You're inferring things to support your belief.

This isn't any different from the people who used Sakurai and Reggie's "new worlds" comments to say we'd only get third-parties.