Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[BlackInk]

I agree. It's just a shame that most people wouldn't see it that way, and all they can see do is look at things from a surface level perspective and complain about how he's broken and needs nerfs because he's killing the meta.

Never mind that he's actually hard to master right? *rolls eyes*

Joker is fun to fight, unlike little Mac.

 

[Ura]

Having both Mario and Daisy next to the DLC reps. This is hinting at the WAH.

Honestly come to think of it, I could see Waluigi revealed alongside whoever #5 is in a very troll-esque move by Sakurai and his team. Like #5 is revealed and just when everyone thinks that's it for Smash, we here a deafaning "WAH!!!" in the venue and que Waluigi's trailer.

 

[Deleted member]

Good heavens, is it that time already?

It's everyone's favourite game, "misinterpret Sakurai's post as a hint" time!

Oh look, Daisy is with the other DLC characters! Is this a hint towards Fighter 5 being a female character from Nintendo? Stay tuned to whenever Fighter #5 is revealed.

【きょうの思い出】
『スマブラSP』の発売から1周年！
みなさん、いつも応援ありがとうございます。#スマブラSP #スマブラ画 #スマブラSP1周年 pic.twitter.com/hIzJpXukqh

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) December 6, 2019

View attachment 250554

Idk if I’m stretching but what if cp5 trailer involves daisy?

 

[SKX31]

All right, I've dug deeper into the Chinese pre-order numbers (previous post here), and I've got some important updates to share. It's important since things seem to be in a bit of a flux, albeit suggesting something big perhaps. Long read ahead. I'll spoiler parts of this post.

Spoiler: Important Notice, and why this is likely only affecting one or a couple Post-Pass selections

Anytime I talk about China since the presentation I'm looking only at its potential impact on the Post-Pass period. If it had been FP5 we would have known already. I'm still expecting Smash to be announced (and released, probably) next year over there; since Ultimate's on the of the biggest Switch titles period. Also, the Switch is getting a soft launch there (with physical stuff etc. appearing in Chinese stores in February for the Chinese New Year).

Keep in mind that Sakurai has the final say and Furukawa (Nintendo's President, Ultimate's Exec. Producer and very likely the main guy who gives Sakurai the list of characters to choose from) is himself fully okay with the FP being/// so far (they all appeared on the list by all accounts). Neither are going to to just look at the most popular options or bend over. Also, I don't see this influencing the rest of the DLC - one or a couple character choices at most IMO.

With that out of the way: There are two Chinese online stores selling Nintendo Switches officially: Tmall and JD.com (Alexa ranks 3 and 15 respectively. Not kidding - TMall's only beat by Google and Youtube. Also, I'm gonna link them directly, so Google Translate if you use Chrome or similar translators. It works decently enough.). And both of them have some interesting numbers: JD.com - which has a live tracker - claims (keyword being claims, I'll go into this in the next spoiler) a number of 80K+ preorders so far (with a favorite count of 75K); and TMall has different "Favorite" stats on their PC (15K+) and mobile sites (110K+). The favorites very likely overlap - and favorites are not indicative of actual pre-orders - but we have an intriguing floor and ceiling. 80K at the lowest, over 200K at the absolute highest. Note that analysts like Daniel Ahmad (posted his tweets here often - he's an analyst for the China specialists Niko Partners)* are expecting a modest (but not bad by any means) 100K total in China by December's end. Also, the Switch got 600K during its first month in Japan, a major region for the Big N (presumably including preorders).

Spoiler: Caveats

Now a couple of important caveats - as discussed in these Twitter convos and the full report:

First, Chinese numbers are infamous for being overinflated. It's why I said claim. The overinflation is due to a really fierce online environment where sites eagerly overinflate to push themselves and get actual views. Still, Ahmad supports the 80K number (as a measure of interest, not actual pre-orders due to info from TMall and limited number of units), so that's why I'm using it as a floor. 80K is still really close to his estimate, and that's during the preorder period. Sure, preorders = / = sales, but either way interest might be higher than people expected.

Second, the numbers have somewhat stalled. It's expected, since the most eager customers have already signalled interest / placed preorders. These do include owners of imported international Switches who want to check the Chinese Switch / "unlock" it from the censorship (when it's doable on both the Chinese PS4 and Xbone, the Chinese Switch is likely just as "unlockable"; allowing a workaround to the global services and eShop). Also, most people are likely waiting for additional games to get the final "Yes" before their first buy.

Many, many people - Tencent, Furukawa, analysts and so on are justifiably cautious about the Switch's fortunes there. The Switch already has a major grey market presence (imported consoles, although the Chinese Switch will be able to play imported games just fine), the Switch is launching on a very slow burn (1 launch game, 3 pre-orders, although 50+ games in the pipeline), frustration over an online region lock being a possibility (one reason some Chinese buyers might hack / "unlock" to access the global eShop) etc. However, there's also quite a bit of evidence supporting the bullish side. There's lots of interest (especially on Chinese social media), Nintendo is very well known and respected in China**, Tencent's official support and the Switch being both mobile and TV-friendly. I'll wait with an ultimate (heh) answer until actual data's released - either outcome could happen. If the Chinese Switch outperforms expectations...

guess Furukawa might have one more strong incidental reason to suggest at least one of Steve, Reimu, LoL etc. to Sakurai.

Conclusion / TL;DR:

There are two ways the Chinese Switch launch can go, and that might or might not affect Smash speculation:

If it performs as expected from analysts and the people involved, business as usual.

If it performs better than that - and China possibly becomes Nintendo's fourth major region: then I guess Smashboards will do a collective Stanley Tucci impersonation:

I regret nothing!

*(Full report by him here)
**(Bullish survey of Chinese gamers - notably, Nintendo's very well known there for high quality and the Chinese respondents generally view Japanese games as better than Chinese. 75 % of Chinese gamers who have heard of the Switch also intend to buy a Chinese Switch. Of course, take with a grain of salt - but still interesting numbers.)

 

[GKMLTTSB]

I'm kind of torn on Lara.

She's a female character that has legacy, but it's kind of a questionable sort.
She'd bring a new archetype, I suppose, but it's an archetype that generally feels a bit... dry.

I can see her happening, and I'd generally just shrug and go "OK", but it wouldn't particularly excite me.

 

[Kokiden]

I think Daisy is a placeholder that is loosely representing the upcoming 5th fighter?

So female, probably a princess or high ranking character in their respective game, and will probably have little problem smacking people off screen with their fair.

I am completely ok with this lol.

 

[Deleted member]

So female, probably a princess or high ranking character in their respective game, and will probably have little problem smacking people off screen with their fair

Hmm...I'm smelling Granblue Fantasy, Fate, oh wait...look at all the possibilities...

 

[Night Gale]

I think it means we're getting a new character and an echo.

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

I think Daisy is a placeholder that is loosely representing the upcoming 5th fighter?

So female, probably a princess or high ranking character in their respective game, and will probably have little problem smacking people off screen with their fair.

I am completely ok with this lol.

Edelgard of course!

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I think Daisy is a placeholder that is loosely representing the upcoming 5th fighter?

So female, probably a princess or high ranking character in their respective game, and will probably have little problem smacking people off screen with their fair.

I am completely ok with this lol.

>high ranking
>Colonel is one of the highest military ranks

Hey Elma gang...

 

[Deleted member]

I think Daisy is a placeholder that is loosely representing the upcoming 5th fighter?

So female, probably a princess or high ranking character in their respective game, and will probably have little problem smacking people off screen with their fair.

I am completely ok with this lol.

Cooking Mama?

 

[Deleted member]

>high ranking
>Colonel is one of the highest military ranks

Hey Elma gang...

*cue Mineski caster shouting*

 

[RouffWestie]

I think Daisy is a placeholder that is loosely representing the upcoming 5th fighter?

So female, probably a princess or high ranking character in their respective game, and will probably have little problem smacking people off screen with their fair.

I am completely ok with this lol.

Daisy is a flower-themed princess
Lip is a flower-themed princess
Daisy is a copy of Peach
Lip is a copy of Arle
Arle confirmed, called it.

 

[BlackInk]

I think Daisy is a placeholder that is loosely representing the upcoming 5th fighter?

So female, probably a princess or high ranking character in their respective game, and will probably have little problem smacking people off screen with their fair.

I am completely ok with this lol.

It makes me think of hornet from Hollow Knight.

 

[AntagonisticGalaxyCetacea]

I think Daisy is a placeholder that is loosely representing the upcoming 5th fighter?

So female, probably a princess or high ranking character in their respective game, and will probably have little problem smacking people off screen with their fair.

I am completely ok with this lol.

I think it's just an image that Sakurai took and decided to share

 

[SneakyLink]

Spoiler

Q: #askTGA I know that the trailer for Joker was made somewhat quickly, but how early did you figure out that Nintendo's announcement would be Joker in Smash Ultimate?
- @LOSER_31_56

A: pic.twitter.com/NtukzbEfty

— The Game Awards (@thegameawards) December 6, 2019

Quick detail regarding Joker's trailer at TGA. Apparently, Geoff Keighley only knew what the content would be about a week in advance.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Wait you guys! Daisy is hinting at Doom Guy because he has a pet bunny called Daisy!

Actually scratch that, Daisy, Doom Guy's pet rabbit is Fighter #5.

 

[BZL8]

Wait you guys! Daisy is hinting at Doom Guy because he has a pet bunny called Daisy!

Actually scratch that, Daisy, Doom Guy's pet rabbit is Fighter #5.

Yes indeed.

 

[Nap_]

How many times those hints worked?
Hard to say.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

So FP5 might be female.

Given Daisy should be of royalty.

Any female reps that are royalty?

 

[BZL8]

So FP5 might be female.

Given Daisy should be of royalty.

Any female reps that are royalty?

Edelgard comes to mind, for example.

 

[Deleted member]

Wait you guys! Daisy is hinting at Doom Guy because he has a pet bunny called Daisy!

Actually scratch that, Daisy, Doom Guy's pet rabbit is Fighter #5.

Wasn't he deconfirmed by Verge and Sabi?

So FP5 might be female.

Given Daisy should be of royalty.

Any female reps that are royalty?

Saber and Katalina are the possible mindsets I have.

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Edelgard comes to mind, for example.

And so does that lady in your avatar.

 

[SKX31]

So FP5 might be female.

Given Daisy should be of royalty.

Any female reps that are royalty?

Hmm...

Sarah Kerrigan is another option - she's Queen of the Zerg, her nickname being "Queen of Blades".

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

So FP5 might be female.

Given Daisy should be of royalty.

Any female reps that are royalty?

OH SNAP

Spoiler: SHE'S IN!

...wait

 

[Deleted member]

Hmm...

Sarah Kerrigan is another option - she's Queen of the Zerg, her nickname being "Queen of Blades".

She would be interesting tho, but she has tons of competition from other Blizzard reps.

 

[Deleted member]

I like to give Sabi the benefit of the doubt when it comes to their source considering papagenos says the source is reliable, but whenever Sabi makes random assumptions or speculations it seems to be nonsense almost every time. It's really hurting their credibility.

Sabi and her source is like how you can have this rocket launcher in an FPS capable of one-shotting everything in the game...

And then you blow yourself up with it.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Is Reimu of royalty?

 

[Wyoming]

So FP5 might be female.

Given Daisy should be of royalty.

Any female reps that are royalty?

They posted three other pictures about the anniversary. Think you're overthinking it there.

 

[Wrathful_Scythe]

Is Reimu of royalty?

Nope, just your regular lazy shrine maiden.

 

[Deleted member]

Is Reimu of royalty?

Not exactly.

 

[Deleted member]

Alright everyone pop quiz; how many times has Nintendo/Sakurai hinted at an unrevealed newcomer in the past?
Actually y'know what I'll answer it for you.

Spoiler

The answer is zero
BECAUSE THEY NEVER ****ING HAVE

 

[Sc_Ev0lution]

Is Reimu of royalty?

no, just from a family of miko/shrine maidens

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Alright everyone pop quiz; how many times has Nintendo/Sakurai hinted at an unrevealed newcomer in the past?
Actually y'know what I'll answer it for you.

Spoiler

The answer is zero
BECAUSE THEY NEVER ****ING HAVE

still waiting for karate joe...

any day now...

 

[Deleted member]

Alright everyone pop quiz; how many times has Nintendo/Sakurai hinted at an unrevealed newcomer in the past?
Actually y'know what I'll answer it for you.

Spoiler

The answer is zero
BECAUSE THEY NEVER ****ING HAVE

Even if they did, they had oopsies. *cough* SNK Leak *cough*

did you interpret that as them forcing their hand?

It was a mostake. There I said it!

 

[Hexodus]

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, and sometimes a picture of Daisy is just a picture of Daisy. Nothing more.

 

[Deleted member]

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, and sometimes a picture of Daisy is just a picture of Daisy. Nothing more.

Couldn’t agree more with you.

I doubt the picture has any hidden meaning.

 

[Deleted member]

Well Nintendo did it again, they made another oopsie.

Spoiler

[twitter post]

Daisy's twin is FP5.

The likelihood of this being real is second to none, but if there was any hidden meaning to Daisy being placed there, FP5 may have 2 fighters with 1 being an echo.


Again, it's not likely at the slightest, but wouldn't it be crazy if FP5 had 2 fighters for the price of 1?

Edit: accidentally quoted somebody oops

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Couldn’t agree more with you.

I doubt the picture has any hidden meaning.

Or maybe they want us to think it has no meaning.

 

[Deleted member]

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, and sometimes a picture of Daisy is just a picture of Daisy. Nothing more.

Thank you for reminding me to hype responsibly XD

But in all seriousness, just why did it have to be Dasiy when they can just pick any other fighter?