Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[DaybreakHorizon]

First-parties can have just as much fire power as third-parties if Nintendo was careful with their choices.

If you were to add someone from Astral Chain or FEH, I think the response would be mixed. Obviously a lot of people want a newcomer from those games, but there's also a lot of people who would consider that a shill advertisement choice. Someone like Bandana Waddle Dee, Dixie Kong, or Paper Mario would seem like s solid choices that would sell well, and I think most people would be comfortable with their inclusion.

While those picks would certainly appeal to the core fanbase on sites such as here, reddit, GameFAQs, maybe 4chan, etc. I feel like they lack the "fire power" that third parties possess:

• Bandana Dee, while prominent within the Kirby series, is essentially just Player 4tm. While Kirby is iconic to Nintendo, his series is far from one of their largest, falling behind heavy-hitting S-list series like Mario, The Legend of Zelda, and Pokémon. At this point I'd put Kirby around the same level as Xenoblade and Animal Crossing among Nintendo's other A-list series. With those assumptions established, why would Nintendo reach that far back when other A-list series (lookin' at you Xenoblade) have prominent characters who aren't in the game? Kirby, Meta Knight, and Dedede represent the "major players" of Kirby well enough, so why include Bandana Dee over another A-lister or a third party?
• Dixie Kong, while certainly historic and iconic, also comes from a largely dormant series. Tropical Freeze released in 2014, and besides a more recent port, nothing has been done with the series. Regardless, I think there's a case for her, but it's certainly not as strong as it would be if this were base roster speculation, where even I called her a "lock."
• I think, especially if accompanying a new game in the series, Paper Mario actually do pretty well for himself considering his attachment to the wider Mario series and the legacy of Mario RPGs.

Would people be comfortable with their inclusion? Sure. But "comfort" clearly isn't a large focus for Nintendo this cycle, given how they seem to be going for off-the-wall picks. Furthermore, other "comfortable" picks like Waluigi, Rex & Pyra, Geno etc. exist in the case Nintendo needs one for a pack like they did with Banjo.

This isn't to invalidate first party picks, but these are things to consider with characters in general. And given the seeming trend of Smash Ultimate away from Nintendo characters, I believe it best to look at first parties characters with a more critical eye going forward.

 

[PSIGuy]

I kinda don't get why every DLC has to be a heavy hitter, I mean this game is already selling like hotcakes lol.

Why settle for strong sales when you can have stronger sales? Every DLC character has to sell by themself and both pay for their licensing/costs AND sell enough to justify more DLC.

 

[Wunderwaft]

If Waluigi is the first post pass character revealed then speculation is gonna flip upside down. Pretty much every character that is considered dead would be revitalized with their supporters. At that point I don't think there's any rule preventing any video game character from joining the roster.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Gonna need some sauce my guy.

Geno & Shantae

also where did you hear that?

Came trough the grapevine, I believe originally from Fatmanonice

Even if not true, it makes for some harmless speculation fun.

 

[Deleted member]

Came trough the grapevine, I believe originally from Fatmanonice

Even if not true, it makes for some harmless speculation fun.

Most likely that dude is speculating based on that theory of the power of 6 that was making rounds early this month, and that for some reason Fighter 6 and 7 would be Mii costume upgrades due to being easier to recycle assets for Smash 4. Pretty much is speculation that really has nothing going for it.

 

[NintenZ]

So originally with Sakura yesterday I was kinda spitballing.... Then I realized something interesting...

Shin Sakura Wars comes out the literal night of the Game Awards in Japan.

 

[Guynamednelson]

If you people actually cared about mainstream appeal you'd notice how the Sans Mii costume attracted more attention than Terry instead of going "LOL HE ISNT GENO GET REKD"

Because I honestly think the Terry backlash should've come from the group that thinks we should've gotten Steve or Master Chief instead of Banjo.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Came trough the grapevine, I believe originally from Fatmanonice

Even if not true, it makes for some harmless speculation fun.

I think he said no more than two if any, but I don’t remember for sure.

One they’ve heard is WAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAluigi, whom apparently is being heard a lot/is pushed aggressively, but idk.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

So if we are to belive that rumor that there's two post pass characters that are already spirits but not Assist Trophies, who do you think they could be?

Geno and Dixie Kong are the obvious choices.

Elma and Octoling please...

btw where'd you hear this rumor?

 

[Lady Kuki]

Why settle for strong sales when you can have stronger sales? Every DLC character has to sell by themself and both pay for their licensing/costs AND sell enough to justify more DLC.

Right lol. I already knew the answer: They need more money, but man, it would've been nice to see them take risks every now and then.

As for Dixie Kong, Bandana Dee, Akira Howard etc. not being as "hype" as third parties, this just makes me wish Sakurai just added Dixie or Dee as the final first party DLC instead. I know he felt that Piranha Plant would've been more interesting due to no one seeing him coming, but if he wasn't ever going to add anymore first parties after that, you'd think that instead of working on PP he could've just worked on one last iconic first party just to make the first party section feel more... complete. Like, it's especially weird to me that Dixie got overlooked considering she appeared in a lot of DKC games, including a few Mario spinoffs.

 

[?????????????]

I’m very suspicious about how we haven’t had Spirit events for Three Houses and Astral Chain.

 

[PhantomShab]

Came trough the grapevine, I believe originally from Fatmanonice

Even if not true, it makes for some harmless speculation fun.

You mean that guy who thinks he's a leaker just because he hangs around Sabi's discord and has never ever been right about anything ever?

 

[TheCJBrine]

You mean that guy who thinks he's a leaker just because he hangs around Sabi's discord and has never ever been right about anything ever?

He doesn’t pretend to be a leaker, he’s just sorta an insider but only gets info from an insider discord and speculates based off of it, but yeah he gets stuff wrong though he’s even said not to take him 100% and really at this point maybe people should go to the Geno thread instead of coming here if they want to ask him stuff and whatnot.

 

[Lady Kuki]

I’m very suspicious about how we haven’t had Spirit events for Three Houses and Astral Chain.

Tbh I'm almost certain that we'll be seeing their spirit boards at least 3-4 months from now. A week minimum. Tetris 99 got a spirit board a month ago despite the game being a year old, and Resident Evil got a spirit board despite the RE2 remake being several months old as well. There IS a possibility that 3H/AC will get something outside of a spirit board, but considering how Sakurai made an emphasis on "new worlds" in his Banjo showcase, things aren't looking too likely.

The only thing I could think of when it comes to "new worlds" are more third parties. Could potentially just be vague and mean "no more veterans because we have all the veterans already", but that feels kind of obvious.

 

[Cosmic77]

While those picks would certainly appeal to the core fanbase on sites such as here, reddit, GameFAQs, maybe 4chan, etc. I feel like they lack the "fire power" that third parties possess:

• Bandana Dee, while prominent within the Kirby series, is essentially just Player 4tm. While Kirby is iconic to Nintendo, his series is far from one of their largest, falling behind heavy-hitting S-list series like Mario, The Legend of Zelda, and Pokémon. At this point I'd put Kirby around the same level as Xenoblade and Animal Crossing among Nintendo's other A-list series. With those assumptions established, why would Nintendo reach that far back when other A-list series (lookin' at you Xenoblade) have prominent characters who aren't in the game? Kirby, Meta Knight, and Dedede represent the "major players" of Kirby well enough, so why include Bandana Dee over another A-lister or a third party?
• Dixie Kong, while certainly historic and iconic, also comes from a largely dormant series. Tropical Freeze released in 2014, and besides a more recent port, nothing has been done with the series. Regardless, I think there's a case for her, but it's certainly not as strong as it would be if this were base roster speculation, where even I called her a "lock."
• I think, especially if accompanying a new game in the series, Paper Mario actually do pretty well for himself considering his attachment to the wider Mario series and the legacy of Mario RPGs.

Would people be comfortable with their inclusion? Sure. But "comfort" clearly isn't a large focus for Nintendo this cycle, given how they seem to be going for off-the-wall picks. Furthermore, other "comfortable" picks like Waluigi, Rex & Pyra, Geno etc. exist in the case Nintendo needs one for a pack like they did with Banjo.

This isn't to invalidate first party picks, but these are things to consider with characters in general. And given the seeming trend of Smash Ultimate away from Nintendo characters, I believe it best to look at first parties characters with a more critical eye going forward.

Many of the third-parties we have in Smash aren't as iconic as we think they are, just like certain Nintendo characters aren't as popular as Nintendo fans think they are.

Yes, there's far more third-parties with a lot more "fire power" than there are first-party, but that doesn't mean anyone and everyone will be a ground-breaking addition to the casuals you're referring to. Feel free to disagree, but I honestly think any of the three characters I mentioned would be more recognizable than Terry or Joker.

 

[Idon]

I’m very suspicious about how we haven’t had Spirit events for Three Houses and Astral Chain.

I'm suspicious too, but all it means is that they can put spirit events for those anytime, anywhere with no warning, so I'm not getting my hopes up.

 

[Icedragonadam]

So originally with Sakura yesterday I was kinda spitballing.... Then I realized something interesting...

Shin Sakura Wars comes out the literal night of the Game Awards in Japan.

Yeah, Sakura Shinguji has been on my mind today. She's definitely an out there character, and she's similar looking to Nakoruru(Katana and Shrine Maiden outfit) which Bosatu described the supposed female fighter as. Not to mention the legacy the series has in Japan.

 

[Deleted member]

I’m very suspicious about how we haven’t had Spirit events for Three Houses and Astral Chain.

We haven't gotten spirits for Luigi's Mansion 3 yet either so you know what that means
AW YEAH GOOIGI TIME BABY

 

[?????????????]

The only thing I could think of when it comes to "new worlds" are more third parties. Could potentially just be vague and mean "no more veterans because we have all the veterans already", but that feels kind of obvious.

I actually hope that’s the case. The guests have been fantastic, but ultimately, Nintendo is still my favorite, and there’s still a handful of Nintendo characters I’d like to see playable for our giant, Ultimate Super Smash Bros. game.

I won’t complain about more third parties, but I hope the next pass is a bit more mixed.

 

[PhantomShab]

He doesn’t pretend to be a leaker, he’s just sorta an insider but only gets info from an insider discord and speculates based off of it, but yeah he gets stuff wrong though he’s even said not to take him 100% and really at this point maybe people should go to the Geno thread instead of coming here if they want to ask him stuff and whatnot.

So anyone can just say they're an insider huh? Despite having a track record that screams the opposite?

You know what? I'm an insider. Get ready for Tony Hawk with a Bam Margera echo.

 

[SneakyLink]

I'm suspicious too, but all it means is that they can put spirit events for those anytime, anywhere with no warning, so I'm not getting my hopes up.

This is a period of time where Nintendo can go "Spirit Board event" and kill characters out of the blue.

It's very scary.

 

[Cosmic77]

I’m very suspicious about how we haven’t had Spirit events for Three Houses and Astral Chain.

I was at first, but LM3 not getting anything killed my suspicions. That was basically Nintendo's second biggest game of the year, and it didn't get squat.

I think people need to prepared for a scenario where these Spirits (or more specifically, their absence) aren't a direct indicator of who we're getting.

 

[BlackInk]

This is a period of time where Nintendo can go "Spirit Board event" and kill characters out of the blue.

It's very scary.

Spirits are op.

 

[Nemuresu]

Many of the third-parties we have in Smash aren't as iconic as we think they are, just like certain Nintendo characters aren't as popular as Nintendo fans think they are.

Yes, there's far more third-parties with a lot more "fire power" than there are first-party, but that doesn't mean anyone and everyone will be a ground-breaking addition to the casuals you're referring to. Feel free to disagree, but I honestly think any of the three characters I mentioned would be more recognizable than Terry or Joker.

I fail to see how are Bandana Dee, a secondary character; or Paper Mario, the protagonist of an RPG series that's gotten worse and worse in reception; any more recognizable than the MC of a GOTY nominee (a recent one nonetheless) or an iconic fighting game mascot.

 

[GKMLTTSB]

Yeah, Sakura Shinguji has been on my mind today. She's definitely an out there character, and she's similar looking to Nakoruru(Katana and Shrine Maiden outfit) which Bosatu described the supposed female fighter as. Not to mention the legacy the series has in Japan.

Newcomer:
Sakura
...
Amamiya!

I have some concerns!

 

[Deleted member]

I was at first, but LM3 not getting anything killed my suspicions. That was basically Nintendo's second biggest game of the year, and it didn't get squat.

I think people need to prepared for a scenario where these Spirits (or more specifically, their absence) aren't a direct indicator of who we're getting.

Yeah this is what I feel too
While the presence of a spirit event for a series most likely disconfirms a character from that series, that doesn't necessarily mean the inverse is true.

 

[Lady Kuki]

We haven't gotten spirits for Luigi's Mansion 3 yet either so you know what that means
AW YEAH GOOIGI TIME BABY

I was at first, but LM3 not getting anything killed my suspicions. That was basically Nintendo's second biggest game of the year, and it didn't get squat.

I think people need to prepared for a scenario where these Spirits (or rather their absence) aren't a direct indicator of who we're getting.

The difference between AC/3H and Luigi's Mansion though, is that the former has completely new characters that haven't seen any sort of representation in Smash at all. IIRC LM3's representation comes in the form of Luigi's new grab attack (I could be completely wrong), with no Gooigi spirit probably just an oversight like no Adeleine or Porky spirit. Weird omission but LM itself is already well represented in terms of spirits while AC/3H have none. I remember people brought up the same with Mario Maker 2 having no spirits and I feel it's the same argument there lol. There may not be any MM2 or LM3 SPECIFIC spirits in the game, but most of the major characters have spirits already.

That being said: I do agree that an AC/3H spirit board may show up at any time, hence why I don't think either game is likely to have a character in the future lol.

 

[Guynamednelson]

IIRC LM3's representation comes in the form of Luigi's new grab attack (I could be completely wrong)

You are right: It's the new Poltergust model and he grabs using one of its new abilities.

 

[TheCJBrine]

So anyone can just say they're an insider huh? Despite having a track record that screams the opposite?

You know what? I'm an insider. Get ready for Tony Hawk with a Bam Margera echo.

The difference is he’s in the discord thanks to Sabi and they hear the same stuff from it (Sabi just knows more thanks to sources), but I already know your stance on leakers so whatever.

 

[Ura]

I’m very suspicious about how we haven’t had Spirit events for Three Houses and Astral Chain.

To be fair, Tetrid 99 spirits just popped out of nowhere randomly a month ago. Is it wrong to assume they could just drop those spirits at any given time?

Link's Awakening ones also dropped in June, months after reveal/before release.

 

[Deleted member]

Many of the third-parties we have in Smash aren't as iconic as we think they are, just like certain Nintendo characters aren't as popular as Nintendo fans think they are.

Yes, there's far more third-parties with a lot more "fire power" than there are first-party, but that doesn't mean anyone and everyone will be a ground-breaking addition to the casuals you're referring to. Feel free to disagree, but I honestly think any of the three characters I mentioned would be more recognizable than Terry or Joker.

Dunno about you but I would find more likely for people to know the face of a game or a franchise than the 3rd or 4th character of a game or franchise. While DK is a big franchise for Nintendo I would argue that Dixie is far less known than DK and Diddy, maybe even less known than K. Rool. Paper Mario is like it or not another form of Mario from a less successful subseries. Bandanna Dee just feels like one of the Toads in NSMB, just a character picked to fill the 4th playable Kirby character.

Compare to Joker or Terry who are the main faces of their own games and both have also relatively followings with certain crowds and countries.

 

[Deleted member]

The difference between AC/3H and Luigi's Mansion though, is that the former has completely new characters that haven't seen any sort of representation in Smash at all. IIRC LM3's representation comes in the form of Luigi's new grab attack (I could be completely wrong), with no Gooigi spirit probably just an oversight like no Adeleine or Porky spirit. Weird omission but LM itself is already well represented in terms of spirits while AC/3H have none. I remember people brought up the same with Mario Maker 2 having no spirits and I feel it's the same argument there lol.

That being said: I do agree that an AC/3H spirit board may show up at any time, hence why I don't think either game is likely to have a character in the future lol.

I would agree with the first part of your post but considering we got spirit events for Super Mario Party, Link's Awakening and the Let's Go! Pokemon games it just tells me that they're really inconsistent on which game releases get them and which don't

 

[Garteam]

So if we are to belive that rumor that there's two post pass characters that are already spirits but not Assist Trophies, who do you think they could be?

Geno and Dixie Kong are the obvious choices.

Geno and Bandana Dee are the obvious ones in my opinion. Both have massive fan support and could easily have a unique moveset to make their jump interesting.

 

[NintenZ]

Yeah, Sakura Shinguji has been on my mind today. She's definitely an out there character, and she's similar looking to Nakoruru(Katana and Shrine Maiden outfit) which Bosatu described the supposed female fighter as. Not to mention the legacy the series has in Japan.

Yeah that’s something that’s been on my mind as well, she fits the Bosatu leak’s description almost perfectly (She can use throwing weapons and she wears Japanese clothing) plus with the fact that SEGA seemingly seems to be preparing to extensively push the series in light of Shin Sakura Wars and the series being immensely impactful even outside of Japan (I mean it inspired Mass Effect even for crying out loud) I really am starting to grow suspicious that maybe, just maybe, Sakura is FP5, we’ll have to wait and see but if so it’d make sense because she’s the PERFECT shocker.

 

[?????????????]

Since Tetris and RE are third party, it doesn’t surprise me their Spirits came later; even in Spirit form, they’d have to collaborate.

Actually, if I had to guess, I’d say the RE Spirits might be a result of the Pass 2 characters being decided upon, and them not making the cut.

Just speculating though. Could absolutely be wrong.

 

[Lady Kuki]

I would agree with the first part of your post but considering we got spirit events for Super Mario Party, Link's Awakening and the Let's Go! Pokemon games it just tells me that they're really inconsistent on which game releases get them and which don't

Had no clue those games even got spirits, aside from Let's Go. Only fuels my argument that 3H/AC will probably be getting spirit boards in the future. A shame, because I wish we were able to get a few 3H songs in here at least rip, lol.

 

[Hinata]

Since Tetris and RE are third party, it doesn’t surprise me their Spirits came later; even in Spirit form, they’d have to collaborate.

Actually, if I had to guess, I’d say the RE Spirits might be a result of the Pass 2 characters being decided upon, and them not making the cut.

Just speculating though. Could absolutely be wrong.

RE Spirits came because Sakurai discussed with Capcom about Phoenix as a fighter, and Capcom gave him RE spirits as a bonus prize.

 

[?????????????]

RE Spirits came because Sakurai discussed with Capcom about Phoenix as a fighter, and Capcom gave him RE spirits as a bonus prize.

please be true

 

[N3ON]

He doesn’t pretend to be a leaker, he’s just sorta an insider but only gets info from an insider discord and speculates based off of it, but yeah he gets stuff wrong though he’s even said not to take him 100% and really at this point maybe people should go to the Geno thread instead of coming here if they want to ask him stuff and whatnot.

Obv I agree to not buy into what he says, but if he's passing along information he's gleaned from "inside sources", oftentimes being blatantly vague about where the claim ends and the speculation begins, you can't just back out of being held accountable by going:

If you're using or circulating inside claims, you either need to be a lot more transparent about the divide between musing and disseminating than Fatman is, or you no longer get to play the ignorance card. Obv the information doesn't stem from him, but it doesn't stem from Sabi either, yet Sabi has never been shy about being labelled a leaker, despite that fact that s/he also never fully commits to claims so as to provide her an escape rope when it often goes **** up.

Someone just trying to innocuously speculate without having your voice carry wouldn't invoke insider discussion nearly as much as Fatman does. I'm aware he's all the time adding the "I'm not a leaker" addendum, but he's not really altering his method so as to require saying that less, is he?

 

[Cosmic77]

I fail to see how are Bandana Dee, a secondary character; or Paper Mario, the protagonist of an RPG series that's gotten worse and worse in reception; any more recognizable than the MC of a GOTY nominee (a recent one nonetheless) or an iconic fighting game mascot.

Most of the people who know Joker and Terry probably don't qualify as "casual gamers". I'd be very surprised if you could walk into a random store, show people pictures of Joker and Terry, and have them correctly guess their name and/or franchise.

I don't expect much luck with the first-parties either, but I definitely know Paper Mario would do decent. I think a few people would at least be able to guess what franchise BWD and Dixie come from.

The difference between AC/3H and Luigi's Mansion though, is that the former has completely new characters that haven't seen any sort of representation in Smash at all. IIRC LM3's representation comes in the form of Luigi's new grab attack (I could be completely wrong), with no Gooigi spirit probably just an oversight like no Adeleine or Porky spirit. Weird omission but LM itself is already well represented in terms of spirits while AC/3H have none. I remember people brought up the same with Mario Maker 2 having no spirits and I feel it's the same argument there lol. There may not be any MM2 or LM3 SPECIFIC spirits in the game, but most of the major characters have spirits already.

That being said: I do agree that an AC/3H spirit board may show up at any time, hence why I don't think either game is likely to have a character in the future lol.

Keep in mind that some of the first add-on Spirits we got were for Pikachu, Eevee, and Super Mario Party characters.

New character or not, Nintendo could've added some Luigi's Mansion 3 Spirits if they wanted to. Unless anyone here genuinely believes LM3 could get a character and should be set next to Three Houses and Astral Chain, I think some of these games simply didn't get any Spirits, and it's possible that there's no hints to any future DLC.