Disclaimer: These are not properly formatted thoughts and opinions. They are not in paragraph form as I had a 420 character limit each and every time. It is late, 5:19 am, so forgive any horrible grammatical/spelling errors for the time being. I am mostly putting this here in the event that I speculate another aspect of Smash. If it is wrong, everyone can point and laugh at my innermost thought process and cognitive functions. Do not feel obliged to read it.
Last minute speculation: the live-stream is not going to reveal Shulk, Chorus Men, or Chrom. "Bu- but muh Gematsu is the word of god!"
Of course it is, fortunately for you, the word of god is not entirely objective. I believe that the character will not be one of the three alluded to from the leak. Blasphemy, I understand. However, I will detail the reason as to why I feel this way so that when I am correct, I can indicate that I was indeed correct (or I can delete this post if I am incorrect).
Perhaps we should start with the notion that the leak is everywhere. By revealing one of these characters, Sakurai inadvertently confirms the leak to be overtly true. I suppose in the event of Chrom, the most likely reveal (IMO), the selection would still be ambiguous enough. However, Chorus Men would blatantly confirm the leak. So I am disregarding his chance for the moment.
Shulk, the fan-favorite based on a simple tweet. I refer to Shulk as the Twitter warrior as he has little evidence in regards to his inclusion aside from various tweets. Regardless, he might be a likely candidate based on this sentiment. Albeit, Sakurai was wise to reveal the reveal ahead of time. He is currently aware that Monolift has retweeted his quote.
This awareness might have turned an obvious reveal into one of the most surprising of the year. Many fail to realize that Sakurai has quite clearly indicated that he has a couple of videos already prepared. This is a live-stream event and he can actually select the video he wishes to announce to the world. He is not obligated to reveal Shulk, even if it was his original intent.
I am here to state that Shulk WAS, by a preponderance of the evidence, the reveal. However, that is not the case any longer. Chorus Men are out for a couple of reasons, one of which I already asserted. The other is based on the notion that this character reveal was announced three days prior to the reveal. Usually, we only have a day or two notice.
This is due to the fact that there is no Nintendo Direct, but the three day time period is actually important. Many deem it as irrelevant because he merely wants to spread awareness. But he could have easily done that a day or two prior, as usual. This would indicate that the reveal is of somewhat significance. More on this later.
I digress, Chorus Men would not pertain to this type of reveal. In fact, they would, in my opinion, correlate better to a secret newcomer. That is not material, however. This leaves Chrom, he is the only character on the Gematsu leak that does not directly confirm the leak, but at the same time, he is the most disputed character on the leak. Perfect. If the reveal is a Gematsu character, it is Chrom. Period.
I do not believe this to be the case though. Why? First of all, as there are many devout Sal ****riders, he never asserts that those are the final characters. Rosalina is an example and "Pokemon X and Y" proves that he does not have information on the finalized roster. No, I believe the character will be someone entirely different.
I would like to make it apparent that the characters I speculate in favor of are: Ridley and Mewtwo. However, I also find that a Legend of Zelda newcomer is quite likely. I will elaborate later.
The length of the videos. Enough said. No, it is not? People have convinced you that Sakurai needs a minute to introduce a video that has already been introduced three days ahead of time? Okay, this is entirely possible, no doubt. However, I do believe that the length is more indicative that we might have originally anticipated.
There are varying lengths of reveals. Typically, these increase in length the later that they are revealed. WFT's was about a minute, so was Villager's if you omit the trailer. I would take this moment to have you envision what kind of reveal you would announce ahead of time... a short reveal, or a long reveal.
It is most logical to presume a longer reveal would be announced prior. So it is HIGHLY improbable that the reveal that he already introduced would have an introduction that lasts about a minute. This means that our trailer will be about 2:30 at the shortest. This falls in line with trailers like Greninja's or Palutena's, perhaps even Rosalina.
That is the one piece of contradicting evidence, Rosalina. Fortunately, I have an explanation. Anyways, these videos introduce a veteran pertinent to the series (Charizard/Pit). Or in Rosalina's case, the presumed Mario roster. This was for ambiguity, you cannot keep a new series character secret for long, for instance Little Mac.
I believe that it is clear where I am going with this. A long trailer needs familiar faces to be a long trailer. Wii Fit Trainer and Villager also introduced new series, but they are among the shortest trailers. Another being Pac-Man. It is difficult to maintain the suspense when you have to reveal solely the character.
Notice what the Gematsu characters aside from Chrom have in common? They are the first members of their series to join the fight. This is, again, why Chrom is the most likely. I would not be completely and utterly surprised to see him.
Rosalina was the exception to the rule despite the notion that she had to have the (presumed) entire Mario cast to properly work here trailer. This is, again, why we got early reveals of Luigi and Peach. Guess who else we had an early or spontaneous reveal of? Ike. Yep. And who else from Fire Emblem was revealed? Marth, of course.
So. This leads me to believe that Chrom is the most overt choice, or that he will opt to choose a character not in the leak to attenuate the hold that the leak has on the community. He needs a veteran available if the trailer is to be on the longer side... as an advocate of the trophy theory, that means a Metriod character or a Legend of Zelda character.
Metroid's anniversary is in August, presumably, with another Direct. That would be a more ideal time for the most part. He might even be a secret character as Ridley is still one of the most debated possible newcomers. Mewtwo, while likely, is another Pokemon character. I just find it odd that he would opt to reveal ANOTHER one so close to the Pokemon dedicated trailer.
The most rational choice (if what I state is true) is a Legend of Zelda newcomer such as Ganon or Ghirahim. We already have the majority of the Legend of Zelda cast and he could use this opportunity to reveal Ganondorf as well, just like Charizard.
It is a stretch, because, in the event that Ridley is kept a secret character (which is what I proposed), a Legend of Zelda character would fit well as an Auguest (get it?) reveal. Hyrule Warriors is not a high-profile game, but I interpret that as a reason TO reveal a character.
So basically, I have surmised that the reveal has to be from a pre-existing series. This means Chrom in the event that we get a Gematsu character. Other possibilities include: Kirby (Meta Knight as veteran, Bandanna Dee as newcomer with King Dedede already there). Star Fox (Fox with Falco or Wolf to coincide with a Krystal reveal).Donkey Kong.
Otherwise, Snake might work because he is a third-party character and we got a third-party reveal trophy reveal with other third-party characters to beef up the trailer. But obviously he was not included in the THIRD-PARTY Direct, and he is not a newcomer unless we get Big Boss with an overhaul. So it is not likely, but I find it more likely than Shulk at this point.
Tl;Dr: Chrom (in the event that Sakurai wishes to further confirm Gematsu despite the fact that there is more to the roster and he can contest such using this reveal) or Legend of Zelda character (my bet goes to Ghirahim, but I have Ganon in my pocket). Maybe Mewtwo (if the trophy quiz theory is incorrect), but doubtful.