There are only four viable choices for scum's Night Kill toNight: EdreesesPieces, Summoner, J, and a claimed doctor. Anyone else gives us a clear for too dear of a price.
In my opinion, optimal scum play is to kill EdreesesPieces and roleblock J. EdreesesPieces can clear Nick of being the roleblocker (if we don't lynch him [roleblocker] toDay), which would narrow at least one scum down to Mayling, X-1, Swiss and Xastrn. Looping roleblock on the Cop is evident on it's face as to why it is useful, and I for one would want J in LyLo if I were scum.
Summoner and EdreesesPieces are clear, and will assuredly die over the course of the next three Nights, along with at least one other person. Scum will be forced to kill J instead once we kill the roleblocker since they can't looping roleblock him.
@Swiss and Meimu: If either of you are Doctors, I think you should protect J without fail toNight and toMorrow Night. Don't claim Doctor toDay, AND DON'T FALSECLAIM DOCTOR TOMORROW IF YOU AREN'T ONE. Don't do anything that even remotely looks like the crap Mayling had Mentos do in Werewolves: i.e. no maverick bull**** "I tried to get an advantage for town by protecting someone else". We're far enough ahead for that. While claiming would force scum's NightKill once more (killing you), and virtually ensure that J gets a successful investigation by lynching X1 and the other of you two, one of whom would have to be the roleblocker.
@GorditoBoy: Target J toNight and toMorrow Night. That will confirm whether or not we have a doctor.
@J: Investigate me or Xastrn toNight, preferably Xastrn. Same thing for toMorrow Night. You shouldn't live past that, but if you do, investigate Nick or GorditoBoy, unless I tell you to investigate Swiss (extremely unlikely). As a sidenote, you are the runner-up for the scummiest natural playstyle I have ever seen. No one can even approach SSBF's style, but you're the Snake to his Metaknight. Second sidenote: I constructed the plan I'm about to suggest in such a way that I get to blame you for everything if we lose. You had a chance to counterclaim Swiss, and if you had, the only way that scum could have won would have been eliminated.
By forcing scum into killing a certain group of people and having J investigate certain people, we can ensure that the scum NK doesn't kill a new clear. With four lynches, if we target:
1) X1
Night) Scum can't afford to let us get close to their roleblocker, so they have to kill EP if X1 isn't a roleblocker, or may kill J banking on a Doctor not being in the game. If they kill the other of Swiss/Meimu looking for a doctor (if one of them is in the scum team), then that effectively gives us another clear by not making us waste a lynch.
2) Meimu, unless she claims Doctor AND Swiss doesn't claim Doctor and wasn't Night Killed, in which case we lynch Swiss. If Meimu was Night Killed we lynch Swiss unless he claims Doctor, in which case we lynch Nick.
Night) A town Doctor claim if X1 is the roleblocker forces scum to kill that person, or else J can simply investigate us to victory. That situation means J will clear me or Xastrn. If X1 is scum (roleblocker or not) and no Doc has claimed, then scum may try to Night Kill J. If he is doc-protected, then we get either one investigation if X1 isn't the roleblocker, and two (which guarantees victory) if he is. If scum killed the Doctor on Night 2, they will kill J with impunity, and that will also set their Night Kills for the next two Nights as EP and Summoner, both of whom are clear.
3) Meimu/Swiss if EITHER a) they both claimed Doctor, or b) if neither X1 or the other of Meimu/Swiss isn't a roleblocker, or Nick, if EP didn't clear him of being a roleblocker by confirming his claim of Forensic Investigator and if neither Meimu nor X1 are roleblockers. If this is the case, we lynch Xastrn, who absolutely would have to be the roleblocker (if this happens, then it means that the Doctor was killed on Night 2 and J is dead. We know that I couldn't be the roleblocker, since it doesn't make sense that I would roleblock MYSELF on the offchance that a role that was hitherto unknown would pick it up and then reveal that information I was the Watcher at the time. Xastrn would be the only vanilla left, and thus has to be the RB).
Night) At this point, X1, Meimu, EdreesesPieces, and at least one, probably two, of J, Swiss and Nick should be dead. If J is alive, it means that one of Swiss/Meimu was a Doctor, and J will die. If Swiss is alive, is the Doctor, and saved J, then we've won. In any case, Summoner would die at this point since he is clear and almost every scenario in which he is dead by this point would lead to us gaining a J-investigation victory.
4) Nick if we had to lynch X1, then Mayling, then Swiss, which would mean that both Swiss and Meimu claimed Doctor and we'd hit one scum, unless Swiss/Meimu weren't roleblockers, in which case we'd lynch GorditoBoy. Otherwise, we lynch GorditoBoy. There is no need to go no-lynch; scum would just go no-NK.
The only way scum would win is if Swiss is scum and claims Doctor and Mayling isn't one, or if Xastrn is scum and J doesn't successfully investigate him by choosing to investigate me instead AND there is no Doctor, or if it's a Swiss/Xastrn or a Swiss/Cello team. I doubt those situations enough that I'm willing to commit to this course of action (especially the last one). If scum deviates from my predicted kill patterns, then it just gives us a faster victory or ensures it.
Possible scumteams and summary:
Swiss/X1-12 Loses on Day 4 if May is a Doctor
Swiss/Xastrn Scum Wins
Swiss/Gordito Loses on Day 5 if May is a Doctor, due to J-investigate
Swiss/Nick Loses on Day 5 if May is a Doctor, due to J-investigate
Swiss/Mayling Scum Wins
Swiss/Cello Scum wins
X1-12/Xastrn Loses on Day 4 if J chooses to investigate Xastrn
X1-12/Gordito Loses on Day 5
X1-12/Nick Loses on Day 4
X1-12/Mayling Loses on Day 3 or 4
X1-12/Cello Loses on Day 4
Xastrn/Gordito Scum wins unless Meimu/Swiss is a doctor and J investigates Cello
Xastrn/Nick Scum wins unless Meimu/Swiss is a doctor and J investigates Cello
Xastrn/Mayling Scum wins unless Meimu/Swiss is a doctor and J investigates Cello
Xastrn/Cello Scum Wins unless Meimu/Swiss is a doctor
Gordito/Nick Loses on Day 5
Gordito/Mayling Loses on Day 5
Gordito/Cello Loses on Day 5
Nick/Mayling Loses on Day 4
Nick/Cello Technically loses on Day 5, but known by Day 4
Mayling/Cello Loses on Day 4
(Thank you, Professor McLogic Saves the Day.)
In my opinion, it's going to be X1 and Mayling. Technically, it could also still be a J/X1 scumteam, but then they would have hilariously painted themselves into a corner.
