Liar Game Mafia | GAME OVER! Who won the 100 gazzillion yen?

[July]

Gaaahhhh the suspense, I'll take my computer to class with me...We'll wait for a claim, if Asdioh doesn't hammer at 15 minutes mark I'll make sure I'm here too.

 

[Asdioh]

Vote: J

uhhhhhhhhh

 

[Asdioh]

Yeah that wasn't too soon, no *****ing at me.

J, be the serial killer.

 

[Raziek]

A Reach has been Lynched!

And as they pull back the pants, they find that J is actually....

Kanzaki Nao, Town Emotional Manipulator (Doctor)

Night 2 begins! Xonar to add detailed NA submissions etc, later.

Topic will be locked momentarily.
​

 

[Overswarm]

Prooooooooobably should have waited for a claim. Even if he flips scum we needed to see if he had a safe claim and we have a possibility of someone claiming they are confirmed town. Dumb move.

 

[#HBC | ZoZo]

Alright guys because I was busy lately I'll set the night deadline at Monday the 26th!

 

[#HBC | ZoZo]

Sorry for the long night guys.

Start of Day 3!

Tonight, July was removed from the game.
July was Harimoto Takashi, Abe Yukiko, Town Insecure Ex-Cultist!!



Deadline is set on Tuesday April 3rd, 11:59 CET!

Voted |

Voter(s)​

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Votes to lynch​

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-​

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Not voting: Asdioh, Sworddancer., Circus, Overswarm

Voteblocked:

With 4 players alive, it takes 3 to lynch!​

 

[Overswarm]

Asdioh, Sworddancer, Circus, Overswarm


The serial killer picked a good NKill target. All four of us fit the serial killer motif to some degree.

Regardless, we only get two lynches to catch him.

If we do catch him toDay, we get two more lynch attempts on the mafia member.


Asdioh- claimed scum then backed out of it, quick hammered J prior to his claim even though we know a doctor claiming would have resulted in a free "clear".

Sworddancer - has been the insta-town player because he hasn't done anything anti-town. Doesn't clear him, just made him valuable to leave until end game. Logically, he should have been NKilled last Night. Unless I can find something in July's play that makes me believe that Circus or Asdioh was scared of their survival, I'd probably lynch Sworddancer on this.

Circus - fairly aggressive this game, and has been on the negative end of every lynch. Both Gheb and J wanted them dead; that said, Gheb modkilled himself in stark anti-town manner and was kind of crazy by the end and J's 'town list' was literally most trustworthy to least trustworthy, so I don't know how much of a negative this is for circus.



The contracts will go into effect toDay and grant us an extra lynch. We have 7 days to figure this out. We need to find the serial killer.

My gut has already given me two people to look at closely, but I'm still going to try to logic my way through this game.


Circus, what do you think about Sworddancer being an SK? Do the kills line up with Sworddancer? Why do you think he survived despite not being up for a lynch in any way?

 

[Circus]

The serial killer picked a good NKill target.

If you do say so yourself, eh?

Regardless, we only get two lynches to catch him.

No? We get one lynch to catch him. We have to lynch the SK toDay or it's game over.

The contracts will go into effect toDay and grant us an extra lynch. We have 7 days to figure this out. We need to find the serial killer.

There's no need to do this now. We lynch the Serial Killer toDay and we've essentially won the game. If we don't find him toDay, then we lose.

Circus, what do you think about Sworddancer being an SK?

Possible, but improbable.

Do the kills line up with Sworddancer?

Not particularly.

Why do you think he survived despite not being up for a lynch in any way?

You probably left him alive in order to create exactly this kind of wifom.

But it's really not as confusing as you would like to frame it. Swords is town, Asdioh's mafia, and you (OS) are the SK (which I've been paranoid about from the start, yuck). Will likely reread things for the sake of thoroughness, but I'm pretty damn sure at this point.

Overswarm, top SK candidate and why, please.

 

[Overswarm]

Oh come on Circus. We get two lynches by doing the contracts. That's how we GET two lynches.

If we said "The SK must be between OS and Circus", we set up the contracts so that after one of us was lynched the next day, the other would be lynched after in a two man lylo.

This isn't lylo; the SK gets one kill and we get two lynches.

You have to accept the contract or you are lynched today. The only way out of this is for both the SK and the mafia player to claim "not town" right now, and that would still mean only the SK could win.



My top SK candidate was Sworddancer and I assumed you were the mafia member and was expecting you to use my questioning of Sworddancer as a clear and easy path to survive through the Day phase; with two votes it basically guarantees a deadlock or lynch.

But if Sworddancer isn't the SK and you are, it still wouldn't make sense for you to want to kill me over Sworddancer unless you thought I was mafia. That'd make sense given the contracts I've suggested; it's in the best interests of mafia and town but in the worst interests of the serial killer. Doesn't make sense as the SK though. Even if all three of you said "OS is probably not town", you could lynch anyone else today and still have contracts that force me to vote for myself in a two-man lylo.

I think it's pretty obvious that I'm not the serial killer given my play. I've given actual mathematical advantages to town with my play; Asdioh took away one by hammering J prior to the claim (which would have forced the SK to kill J) and you're attempting to take away the other by saying "let's not do the contracts".

I expected to be a potential lynch due to the possibility of being mafia, but it is impossible for me to be the Serial Killer given my play.

Regardless, this can easily be proven by contracts having me vote myself in a two man Lylo. You can't pin the serial killer label on someone who is willing to die, Circus.

 

[Overswarm]

I'm confused, Circus. Why didn't you take the way out I gave you? Did you just miss it, or did you just plan during the Night to go after me and not think about switching plans?


I don't get it. It makes no logical sense. Lynching me will almost certainly result in both of us being lynched; Sworddancer and Asdioh will be the only two remaining. Taking the Sworddancer lynch would have resulted in the possibility of a Sworddancer/OS lynch; all it'd take is asking if I was confident in my decision. It was bait, sure, but legitimately the best course of action.

It's impossible for the SK to win in this phase alone, yet you push against the grain despite it obviously resulting in both of us being lynched.

 

[#HBC | ZoZo]

Just a friendly reminder from the mod;
Send PMs to me and I am Zim! both.

 

[Asdioh]

Asdioh, your vote please.

Vote: J

uhhhhhhhhh

Prooooooooobably should have waited for a claim. Even if he flips scum we needed to see if he had a safe claim and we have a possibility of someone claiming they are confirmed town. Dumb move.

This Night was so long that I almost forgot I was in this game, and then was hoping I would get nightkilled by no dice.

 

[Asdioh]

For the record, J didn't even log in until long after the deadline anyway.

 

[Overswarm]

Wait until a claim until we lynch. We don't need to lynch right away.

Asdioh, if you are online, you may hammer 15 minutes from deadline.

^

10^'s




I dislike your action, not necessarily the result; the doc dying doesn't change our odds unless he would have gotten the protect right twice in a row anyway.


I'm trying to wrap my head around Sworddancer town as a possibility. His play has been too crystal clear for me to be comfortable with, and it's our fault for not putting him in a position to potentially screw up.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

OS, I fail to see how your contract is going to give us "two lynches," unless it allows us to lynch twice in the same Day. Otherwise, if we mislynch, then as soon as we do we're just going to go into the Night, the sk is going to kill someone, and then endgame the other.

Please go over a SHORT version of your contracts. Otherwise I won't be able to see how you're "giving us a mathematical advantage" at all.

Circus, why am I so townie to you? I mean, I know that you've always had me as town, but it seems like a pretty risky assumption for a townie to make in our current situation. As a townie, are you really ready to just bet on this.

OS, don't come at me with that NK WIFOM. I admit that it is strange for me, "super dupper townie," to be alive after last Night. However, there are so many reasons as to why the sk woulda done what they did (some that include you btw) that it's folly to actually come at me with mere speculation.

Asdioh, I need to simply give me picks as to who you think is the last mafia and sk.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

'

Also dislike the action. Actually don't really sense sk from it though. I mean, would Asdioh sk really be so blatantly opportunistic (real question for anyone who feels they can answer it)?

 

[Overswarm]

OS, I fail to see how your contract is going to give us "two lynches," unless it allows us to lynch twice in the same Day. Otherwise, if we mislynch, then as soon as we do we're just going to go into the Night, the sk is going to kill someone, and then endgame the other.

Please go over a SHORT version of your contracts. Otherwise I won't be able to see how you're "giving us a mathematical advantage" at all.

Endgame only occurs when there is an automatic No Lynch.

With one town and one SK, the SK would normally win by default because neither could lynch, without someone voting for themselves, thus resulting in an automatic No lynch. With two people remaining, a majority is two.

With the contracts, we can set up a lynch order and force everyone to vote for the people on the list in the order they appear.

If we lynch Circus today and then I am NKilled, it would result in Sworddancer Asdioh. If you were the SK, we could say "The lynch order is Circus, Sworddancer, Asdioh, Overswarm". We lynch Circus; you kill Asdioh or myself, either or, doesn't matter. The following day, you and the survivor both are forced to vote for the next person on the list, which is Sworddancer.

The vote count would have two votes on Sworddancer, meaning you've got the majority and would then die.

OS, don't come at me with that NK WIFOM. I admit that it is strange for me, "super dupper townie," to be alive after last Night. However, there are so many reasons as to why the sk woulda done what they did (some that include you btw) that it's folly to actually come at me with mere speculation.

It's folly to ignore it. Whether you are the SK or not, you have to know that it is a calculated decision.

Also dislike the action. Actually don't really sense sk from it though. I mean, would Asdioh sk really be so blatantly opportunistic (real question for anyone who feels they can answer it)?

Would he do so as mafia?


You gotta remember, he claimed mafia.

 

[#HBC | J]

How very rude ;<

Good luck town! Sorry for my inactivity!

 

[July]

Good luck town!!

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

OS I'm pretty sure that sk will just straight up endgame the other.

Also obviously the nk was calculated. That's exactly why I don't like using it. Too much WIFOM involved.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Would he do so as mafia?


You gotta remember, he claimed mafia.

Mmm, can't really think of any reason why he would want to. Just seems much more like a careless action if you ask me.

Why, you thinking that Asdioh's actually mafia?

 

[#HBC | ZoZo]

OS I'm pretty sure that sk will just straight up endgame

He wont. There is still a majority vote which can be reached with contracts.

Multiple peeps asked me, so Im just clarifying.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Welp, a tip of my hat to you then OS.

We're voting for the order of the contracts then?

I know we already did this yesturDay, but for convenience, the order I want people dead as of now:

Circus > OS > Asdioh

OS over Asdioh due to PoE. Don't see him as sk for reasons already stated. Circus also for reasons already stated.

 

[Overswarm]

BAM.

Overswarm saves the day again.


Between you three I don't know who I'd want dead.

I'm not the Serial Killer; this much is pretty obvious. From your guys' perspective I'm town or mafia.

If you want to deal with a WIFOMy "what would I do" scenario, if I was the SK I would have killed Sworddancer and been left with me, Asdioh, July, and Circus, and a Circus lynch would have been nigh guaranteed with July's support.

Sworddancer, do you believe I'm the SK? I'm going to assume the answer is no because you want Circus dead first. Am I correct in this assumption?

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Your not my first pick, no. I mean I'm not ruling it out but Circus SK makes much more sense then you do. Not just because of your contracts, but because your play is consistent with your very "anti-sk" strategy.

 

[Overswarm]

Asdioh, who do you think should die today?

Depending on your answer, I've got a confirmed town victory.

 

[Asdioh]

Ugh, I'm not even sure anymore.

I want to say OS is the serial killer, because despite the fact that OS assures us (repeatedly, all game) that he is in fact not the serial killer, I know that he revels in scumplay and well... he's still alive. I don't have anything concrete though, and even if I put in the effort of a reread I doubt I'd find anything. I will say that his "I am not the SK because I am proposing a contract that reduces the chance of a SK victory" thing is bogus because if people actually trust you for that, and put you low on their lists, and you are the serial killer, then of course that gives you a win.

I want to say it's Circus because of the J vs Circus bit yesterDay, but towards the end it legitimately seemed like Circus was going to be the lynch, and if he was faking the 'frustrated townie about to die' bit, then he was doing a good job. I must say that J's play was not optimal, he put way too much attention on himself as the doctor and things didn't go so well yesterDay -_-

Then there's Swords, who I've had as super strong town for reasons I don't even remember anymore, which makes me kind of nervous but I'd be willing to trust my former gut.



Honestly, I feel like OS is the more likely SK candidate, but I'd have to put a ton of effort in to get him lynched and I don't want to do that >=(
Swords, could you elaborate on how OS' "anti-SK" strategy would make him very very unlikely to be the SK?

 

[Overswarm]

Please, elaborate quickly.

When you guys are done I can prove mathematically I'm not the serial killer and can only be mafia or town. I'm town, but can't distinguish myself between the two.

 

[Circus]

I'm confused, Circus. Why didn't you take the way out I gave you? Did you just miss it, or did you just plan during the Night to go after me and not think about switching plans?


I don't get it. It makes no logical sense. Lynching me will almost certainly result in both of us being lynched; Sworddancer and Asdioh will be the only two remaining. Taking the Sworddancer lynch would have resulted in the possibility of a Sworddancer/OS lynch; all it'd take is asking if I was confident in my decision. It was bait, sure, but legitimately the best course of action.

I don't need a way out. I'm not mafia.

To be honest, I have no idea how you came about a mafia read on me, since I believe I've only seen you express some SK suspicion of me up until this point. Plus, again, Asdioh is sitting there with the word "mafia" practically tattoo'd on his forehead.

Circus, why am I so townie to you? I mean, I know that you've always had me as town, but it seems like a pretty risky assumption for a townie to make in our current situation. As a townie, are you really ready to just bet on this.

I was going to just tell you how level-headed I've seen you be this game, up to and including the decision between J and I yesterDay, but you know what? You're right. I'm not sold on you as a townie yet and I'm going to need to reread.

Endgame only occurs when there is an automatic No Lynch.

With one town and one SK, the SK would normally win by default because neither could lynch, without someone voting for themselves, thus resulting in an automatic No lynch. With two people remaining, a majority is two.

With the contracts, we can set up a lynch order and force everyone to vote for the people on the list in the order they appear.

If we lynch Circus today and then I am NKilled, it would result in Sworddancer Asdioh. If you were the SK, we could say "The lynch order is Circus, Sworddancer, Asdioh, Overswarm". We lynch Circus; you kill Asdioh or myself, either or, doesn't matter. The following day, you and the survivor both are forced to vote for the next person on the list, which is Sworddancer.

The vote count would have two votes on Sworddancer, meaning you've got the majority and would then die.

Oh. This actually does make sense, assuming everyone sends this contract to everyone else so that it can't be terminated by someone's death.

Launch it.

 

[Circus]

Your not my first pick, no. I mean I'm not ruling it out but Circus SK makes much more sense then you do. Not just because of your contracts, but because your play is consistent with your very "anti-sk" strategy.

This is going to look like FUD, I know, but legitimately think about it: OS has been presenting this "anti-SK strategy" all game...and yet he's still alive. Is that not a factor for you? Do you think the SK would read this all game and take the risk of allowing OS to live long enough to actually implement it?

The only way this makes sense to me is if:

1) OS himself is the SK, and is posturing. If that's the case, it looks like it's definitely working.
2) A player who is confident that he will be picked as the winning survivor in 2-man is the SK (which would obviously be you, Swords).

The only thing I feel certain about at this point is that Asdioh is not the SK, which is why I'm not interested in lynching him toDay at all. However, I think it's highly likely he's the last maf, so I don't want him at the end of the lynch order we decide.

Please, elaborate quickly.

When you guys are done I can prove mathematically I'm not the serial killer and can only be mafia or town. I'm town, but can't distinguish myself between the two.

Incredibly interested in seeing this.

 

[Overswarm]

We basically only need one clear and I should have the game won. I'd like it to be me, but everyone would like it to be them.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

@Circus: Again, it's WIFOM. I agree with you that it's odd for OS to be alive due to the simple fact that he's OS, and that he has been playing very anti-sk all game, and yet he's still alive. Same story goes for me.

Hmmm . . .

Actually, normally I wouldn't do this, but I'm having trouble thinking of other things to investigate right now and others want to see things from this PoV, so . . .

Reasons why the remaining players may be the SKs

OS: Played a very "anti-sk" game all game, and yet is still alive. Unless OS can really "prove" that he is the sk beyond "hurr durr sk would never make it harder for himself to win!" then I won't buy that. July had OS as a second pick in her kill list, which could partially explain why sk OS killed her. Also, as OS himself said, July didn't really come off as potential sk to anybody, while any of us kinda do, again giving him incentive to kill July and leave everyone else alive. Sets Circus up, since July was one of Circus's main enemies. Don't like his overemphasis on "teamwork" Day 1 (something I hadn't really mentioned too much until now, as I've been focusing on other things, but here it is). Raziek kill seems weird, but I really don't think we're going to get ANYTHING from speculating about his death.

Circus: Can't really give anything off of him still being alive, sk or not. He's been in the spotlight for the whole game now, so if he's not the sk then it's no surprise that the real sk left him alive. Don't like how he came into toDay, willing to let me off and just go after OS. Kill of July from a Circus sk PoV makes a lot of sense since she, along with J, were his two main enemies this game. Leaving me alive Night 1 and Night 2 makes sense for him, as I can't remember a moment I went after him Day 1 and by the end of Day 2 I was won over by his favor. Although Circus killing Raziek Night one over J/OS/July doesn't really line up. General play this game has had moments that do not seem townie at all (scummy overly-antagonistic play comes to mind).

Asdioh: Not really seeing it from him. Besides from the insane troll logic of "I honestly don't think a scum Asdioh would play this scummy as scum," the Night results don't line up. Sk Asdioh killing off July when she basically kept him as town does not make sense to me. That's it, end of story.

From this I'm only really reaffirming my beliefs that OS and Circus are the last scum, but the WIFOM speculation is getting to me. I need to look over OS and Circus again to sort out which one I like as my sk.

Asdioh is sitting there with the word "mafia" practically tattoo'd on his forehead.

I've been meaning to ask you this for awhile, but why? What about July's logic?

OS I'm still interested in you "clearing" yourself from being the sk, if you don't mind.

@Asdioh: Was more or less feeling that OS "anti-sk" play has seemed too genuine. However, if you read above, I've got to check that.

 

[Overswarm]

You willing to kill Circus today, Sworddancer?

Asdioh?




No votes until after contracts.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

If you really can "prove" to me that your not the sk through math, then yes.

 

[Asdioh]

So I just realized that since I'll be going to Chicago Sunday through Tuesday, I'll be V/LA Sun-Tues. I should be back in time for deadline Tuesday, except it's Europe time so lol probably not.


In the meantime, I assume Circus and OS would be unwilling to lynch Swords, and I'm not convinced of that myself, so the lynch is probably between the two of them, unless people somehow think I'm SK. If OS can "prove" he's not the SK then cool.

@Mafioso: I was thinking about this game and realized that if the SK (or maybe even a townie) were about to get lynched on suspicion of being SK, his safest play would be to claim mafia. You should consider claiming before he has the chance to avoid the lynch that way.

 

[Overswarm]

He only has just now to claim anyway.


request deadline extension due to Asdioh's V/LA

 

[Circus]

Honestly, at this point, I hardly care anymore. If OS can actually prove he's not SK, I'm happy to make him our survivor winner thing. I don't have the drive to push for myself anymore, and I'm kind of eager for this game to just be over.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

OS if you really can prove you're not the sk then please do it now. I really don't want to be shifting through you're and Circus's post to determine who I like as the sk more.

@MOD: About that deadline extension . . .

 

[#HBC | ZoZo]

This is just dumb.

You guys have til Friday April 6th.