Liar Game Mafia | GAME OVER! Who won the 100 gazzillion yen?

[Overswarm]

We set up the contracts.

Lynch Circus today.

If we have the contracts set up to where in a 2-man lylo, let me be lynched.

If I was the SK I'd be setting up my own death.

I'm willing to do this; the downside is that doing this basically results in us only getting one chance to kill the SK, and then the SK chooses the rest of the game.


We need to choose who the "survivor" is going to be. One of us is just literally not going to be in danger of anything but an SK kill. We have a 1 in 4 chance of picking someone that is not the SK.

I would want it to be me or Asdioh, preferrably me.

Everyone else needs to pick two people they're fine with it being (themselves, because all alignments want it to be them, and then one other).

We have a survivor, then we set up the contracts.

It seems dangerous, but lynching without the contracts is similar to picking three survivors, so this is statistically more sound.

 

[#HBC | ZoZo]

Sending out prods tommorrow.

 

[Overswarm]

Rereading this game from the beginning with the assumption that each of you are the serial killer. At least it's under 500 posts...

 

[Overswarm]

Also, everyone name claim.

I am Akiyama Shinichi.

 

[Overswarm]

Raziek the mafia
-is for open contracts (post#18)
-thinks contracts that modify behavior would be “incredibly handy” (post#28)
-I call him out in post #64 as being the only player with shallow exchanges up to that point.
-has a FoS on Gheb in #74; is currently the most aggressive towards Gheb.
-decides to finally sit down and read at post #87
-Post #88, immediately hits a Circus post; says it gives him a good feeling about Circus.
-Post #89, comments on my “I’ll kill you if it improves town chances” post. Considers it overkill, but typical.
-Post #90, quotes J’s feelings on Gheb’s contract; says it echos most of what he was feeling two posts up (his circus post).
-Post #93, hits another Circus post. Protects Gheb, dissses Circus’ threat.
-Post #94/95, comments on liking my post #79 and wants contract rules posted together for easier reading
Day 1 begins
-Post #119, agrees with J’s #114 vs. Circus, comments on sworddancer’s contract with me
-Post #126, more anti-Circus. Post #127, disagrees with Sworddancer’s contract attempt.
-Post #134/#135 and around that time, argues with Sworddancer over his contract with me. Raziek seems eager to jump.
-#167, holy crap in a hat OS
-#216, Raziek made himself sad because he was killed.


Raziek's connection with Circus is the most prominent, but there's not enough information to really know if he's doing this with a townie. He did defend Gheb, and started off agreeing with Circus and then switching to an anti-circus sentiment.


There is absolutely no connection whatsoever between Raziek and Asdioh. None.

Raziek's talk on Circus bounced around a lot.

Raziek was more aggressive towards Sworddancer at the end, seemed eager about it, but no teeth still.


If I had to guess I'd say that Sworddancer wasn't his mafia partner, but it's not with much conviction.

 

[Overswarm]

I think Asdioh helped us win the game with his gambit; it made the lists we made earlier much, much easier to read.

 

[Overswarm]

Sworddancer is the serial killer.

Circus is the last mafia.



Circus was the only one that wanted Asdioh dead at all, and he was the only one that really balked at Asdioh. Town and Serial Killer alike have no reason to do so because, whatever, he's claimed mafia. Mafia knows that he's lying though, and only the Serial Killer would lie like that. From the mafia's perspective, Asdioh would survive until a three man lylo unless mafia died first... meaning the SK claiming mafia means mafia can't win. Circus has to kill Asdioh to win. You can see this in his list.

Asdioh had no reason to claim as he did as the SK. He could be mafia making a gambit, this is true... but highly unlikely. Occam's Razor here. Plus, July was killed. I can't see that being a good tactical decision from Asdioh SK.



SO.

I know I'm not the SK.

I believe strongly Asdioh is not the SK; his gambit would only make sense for town or mafia.

I believe strongly that Circus is mafia due to his consistent anti-Asdioh sentiment. It is possible that he is the SK worrying about a "clear", and it is highly possible that July would have been a better kill for Circus than killing Asdioh due to July's suspicions of Circus... but I still lean towards mafia for him.

That leaves Sworddancer as the Serial Killer.



Asdioh and I will go into a two man lylo.

I want me to be the one to survive.

If we lynch Circus or Sworddancer today, the person in the last slot HAS to be Night killed if we miss the serial killer.

That'd leave whoever is in the third slot alive.

But it wouldn't matter, because the second slot would then have to vote for himself, and then the third slot, Asdioh, would lynch him and be the only remaining player.

 

[Overswarm]

Also, this should mathematically prove to you I'm not the serial killer, just FYI.

You've all agreed to my plan and have for some time; it's just a matter of figuring out the order. Most of the sentiment has been towards me being mafia.

It wouldn't be hard to have this group put Asdioh as the survivor and then me in the second slot. That way Asdioh would win as town, mafia, or SK, but I couldn't win because after the NKill I'd just be setting up for my own lynch amirite?

Well, if I just killed Asdioh I would be the new last slot, and the remaining player would vote for himself and then I'd vote for them and win the game.

So the SK can win in slots one and two.



Who do we want in slots one and two?

Town.

If not town, we want mafia.

 

[Overswarm]

So this'll be pretty easy, and I know you're viewing.


Mafia?

Claim.

The current setup will be this:
Sworddancer
Circus
Asdioh
Overswarm

If you claim, you'll be placed in Asdioh's slot and everyone else will be moved up one. We'll then be able to determine the serial killer between the two remaining players.

If we guess right? You lose. You'd lynch one of the remaining townies with me because of the contracts, and then I'd lynch you the next day.

If we guess wrong? You win. SK kills me, and you're put in the last slot and then mafia takes the win when the SK has to lynch himself the following day.


It's your best option, because currently the contract setup will not allow you to win.

It improves town's odds and it improves yours. I'd rather take the SK's victory chance down to raise both town's and mafia's.

Claim mafia, and do it ASAP. None of this last minute stuff.

 

[Overswarm]

You sent out those prods, Xonar?

 

[#HBC | ZoZo]

Why yes, yes I did.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

MMM I feel grimmy for doing this but I forfeit. I'm the sk. Don't really feel like fighting OS and even if I did win it would of been a hollow victory.

OS I think you should win, no matter what alignment you are. So lets lynch Circus toDay and I'll make a contract with you saying that I won't kill anyone toNight (killing is not compulsive for me).

 

[Overswarm]

A durr


Contracts can't affect Night actions. I can however accept a contract from you saying that Overswarm controls your vote during all phases for the rest of the game.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

mmm how do you know I just won't nk you then?

 

[Overswarm]

Because we'd lynch you first?

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

oh kk the way you worded that last post made me think you were going to keep me around.

Vote: Sworddancer.

 

[Overswarm]

It'd just let me force you to vote for yourself, like you just did.


Asdioh, Circus, I'm gonna need you to accept the contracts. I'm going to be the last remaining player, and both Circus and Asdioh will be lynched (in that order). One of the two of you is mafia, more than likely Circus. Doing this prior to lyncihng Circus will grant us the game.

 

[Overswarm]

What's your role name, Sworddancer?

The fact that you were the only one that refused to say it caught my eye during my reread.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

So then the final question lies in who was mafia out of Asdioh, Circus, and OS.

Probably not Asdioh. He's probably just lazy town (can't blame him).

Circus is deff possibility cus of pretty much lines up with what OS said. Circus wanting to kill Asdioh so badly seems like what the mafia was going to do.

and then we have OS who played a very scummy Day 1 and seems far too motivated to play to be town. '

You know on second I may of been able to fight it be just like drowning OS with the WIFOM card and plus I think Asdioh woulda stuck by my side but I think Circus would of been won over. Meh. Coulda woulda but didn't.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

What's your role name, Sworddancer?

The fact that you were the only one that refused to say it caught my eye during my reread.

That guy in the OP. Don't remember his name.

FYI I have a safe claim btw.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Leronira, that guy with the mask on.

 

[Overswarm]

Nice.

I actually am town, which was one of the reasons I was so into this game; it's rare I can have a mafia game be interesting as town, but the contract possibilities allowed some serious shenanigans. I notified the mod of most of them, but they were still fun to think up.

The MOD kind of made in error too and pseudo-cleared me; he posted "Overswarm, if it wasn't for you!" or something similar in response to adding more rules that hurt scum. I didn't really want to point that out to clear me, but I wondered if anyone had picked up on it. The only other possibility is that I was just "honorable". Given my response in DBZ mafia to the MOD changing rules after I foudn a way to break his game and Xonar's verbage, I thought it was a pretty convincing clear ^_^


Part of my reasoning for the contracts was that I realized that even if we caught the SK there'd be no real way to discern between mafia and town. They both have the same goal: survive and catch the SK.

Asdioh took care of that for me, and I was able to read Circus pretty plainly after that. With the addition of the contracts, it even removes the possibility of Asdioh being some super genius of scum that decided to claim scum, quick hammer the Doc, and then go inactive in what could have been lylo, because even if Circus flipped town Asdioh would be forced to vote himself (or he'd refuse the contract, thus resulting in his lynch anyway).

I figured mafia won on ties anyway. With no NKill, they'd have to have some sort of advantage. Just having two people isn't really an advantage in this setup.

 

[Overswarm]

To the other townie:

DO NOT VOTE FOR SWORDDANCER.

Wait for the contracts to be accepted, we don't have to gamble here and if Sworddancer is just mafia playing high as a kite I'd really not like to see a nightkill resulting in a two man lylo with no contracts, netting an instant SK win.

 

[Overswarm]

Contracts sent.


Still not sure why you gave up at the finish line SD, I can't be THAT intimidating

I do get to give Gheb grief later about him modkilling himself and town still winning though.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Actually I don't know either.

I think I was just acting on an impulse tbh. I don't really have a better reason than that.

 

[Overswarm]

Why did you let me live? July would have certainly gone after CircusMaf, and with both you (SK) and Circus (Mafia) not wanting contracts would have split it down the middle. Asdioh is ambivalent and with me gone people may have forgotten or ignored it.

In your position I would have just NKilled me and said "wasn't me" and let July push the lynch to someone.

 

[Circus]

Sorry about the inactivity, Xonar.

Well, this is a super weird turn of events. I'm still not mafia, but since we have the SK pinned, I don't care anymore. OS can be our survivor. If he's the maf, fine. I'm over it at this point.

 

[Overswarm]

That's all we need. Accept the contracts and town wins by default.

 

[Asdioh]

I am back from Chicago and just skimmed and now reading more

 

[Asdioh]

and then we have OS who played a very scummy Day 1 and seems far too motivated to play to be town.

That's what I thought, too. That's part of the reason I've been considering OS as SK for a long time. I don't know why you gave up though, you were my one town read remaining...

Asdioh, Circus, I'm gonna need you to accept the contracts. I'm going to be the last remaining player, and both Circus and Asdioh will be lynched (in that order). One of the two of you is mafia, more than likely Circus. Doing this prior to lyncihng Circus will grant us the game.

Hey Circus how do you feel about th-

Sorry about the inactivity, Xonar.

Well, this is a super weird turn of events. I'm still not mafia, but since we have the SK pinned, I don't care anymore. OS can be our survivor. If he's the maf, fine. I'm over it at this point.

ಠ_ಠ
Sounds like mafia giving up to me. I don't see much choice though, I doubt I'll be able to convince anyone to have the order go OS->Asdioh.

 

[Overswarm]

@mod, please send the contracts I sent to you/zim.

 

[Overswarm]

Xonarrrrrrrrrrrr

 

[Circus]

ಠ_ಠ
Sounds like mafia giving up to me. I don't see much choice though, I doubt I'll be able to convince anyone to have the order go OS->Asdioh.

Would expect you to say that.

Alright, I accepted the contract. Asdioh, if you're town, Imma be goin' gorillas after this game. OS, if you're scum, gg.

Can I vote for Swords yet?

 

[Overswarm]

Vote: Sworddancer.

Yes you may.

 

[Overswarm]

unvote

actually, wait.

 

[Overswarm]

Send that same contract to Asdioh.

Asdioh, send that same contract to Circus.

 

[Asdioh]

Done, I hope.

 

[Overswarm]

Tell me when Circus accepts. I just want to make sure Sworddancer isn't bitter mafia giving Circus the SK a win.

 

[Circus]

I'm sitting here, ready to accept the thing, but I'm sending Asdioh the contract and would like him to accept it first. Since I'm in line for the noose in front of him, I think that's a reasonable request.

 

[Overswarm]

I think you should accept his, and then he'll accept yours when he's on. If he doesn't, I'll just renig the contracts completely. I have that ability, remember?