Liar Game Mafia | GAME OVER! Who won the 100 gazzillion yen?

[Overswarm]

Also if you feel I am the SK, why am I not at the tippy top of your list?

Because I didn't know until now.

Besides, why didn't you?

Circus (Leaning possibly Mafia>SK, however I could see SKCircus)
OS (leaning Mafia>SK)
Swords (Leaning SK>Mafia)

You literally just posted a list implying Circus and I were more likely mafia than SK, and that Swords was more likely SK than mafia, yet put both Circus and myself above Swords.... then ask me why I didn't put you at the top of my list. Sloppy, J.

Anyway.

We don't have time for the contracts tonight. They'll have to be done tomorrow. Since I may not be around tomorrow:

We should have a 4 man group tomorrow. Possibly 5 if the doctor is smart.Think about it, doc.

Here's what the contract will read when we submit them toMorrow:
(make sure to delete / replace what is in parenthesis)

Contract Request: (names of whoever, everyone will accept)

Contract:
Should we enter a 2 or 3 person Day phase, I agree I will vote for the players in the list below in order of appearance within 72 hours of the Day start, not changing my vote until they are dead.

Should a player not accept this contract, this contract will then become null and void for any who have accepted it. (lynch that person, as they are the SK)

Should the Serial Killer flip for any reason and we are NOT entering a 2 person Day phase, this contract will become null and void for all players who have accepted it.

List:
(name of first person we want to die)
(name of second person we want to die)
(name of third person we want to die)
(name of fourth person we want to die)


Punishment for breaking the contract:
Your vote is transferred to yourself by the MOD OR you get put to L-1 by MOD votes. (I don't know which would be better; the first one gives more control but I don't know if it is legal)

Valid through:
Until the Serial Killer flips (if the mod doesn't allow this, then say until Day phase ten)

This will give us a 50% chance of victory. You'll also notice that, ta da, lo and behold it makes absolutely no difference if a doctor exists or not. Even with a two-man lylo between the doc and the SK, this contract prevents a tie. One side is going to win.

If the doctor protects correctly tonight: 5 man into 3 man, that's our last lynch. 1 in 5 chance of killing SK and 1 in 3 chance. We can't "no lynch" to a 2 man lylo unless the SK allows us to, and he wouldn't do that if he knew he'd be lynched and we wouldn't know who wasn't night killing.

If the doctor doesn't protect correctly tonight: 4 man into 2 man, that's our last lynch. that's a 1 in 4 chance of killing SK and then a 1 in 2 chance of killing SK.

If the doctor doesn't protect correctly tonight, does protect correctly tomorrow: 4 man into 3 man, and we're back in that ****ty situation.

So what does this mean for us?

The Doctor will claim. It's in our favor for him to claim. Mafia and SK can't counter-claim because we can easily lynch both people who have claimed.

We know Circus isn't the doc because he didn't claim doc when he realized he was going to be lynched. (this doesn't mean he isn't SK) Everyone else knows if they are the doc or not.

If the Doc doesn't claim today:

Assuming I'm not the doc:

2. Asdioh
5. J
6. July
7. Circus

This would give me 2 VT, a Doc, a Mafia, and an SK today.

Doc claims. Lets assume it is, say, Sworddancer.

2. Asdioh
5. J
6. July
7. Circus

One VT, one Doc, one Mafia, one SK.

50% chance of hitting scum alignment, 25% chance of killing SK.


If Doc claims tomorrow:

4 players left. Doc claims. Assuming I'm not the doc.

50% chance of hitting scum.

Doc will be killed at Night or there will be no kill; either way, we know Doc isn't SK and thus we have a 50% chance of killing the SK again with 2 players left for the lynch.






The only question for the Doc is whether or not he thinks he's going to live through the night. If he thinks he isn't a high profile night target, he should claim tomorrow. If he thinks he's going to die, he should claim today and we should use that to determine our lynch.


Through the use of my contracts and my Doc claiming plan, we should be given a 33% chance to kill the SK tomorrow (50% knowledge on an individual basis from everyone who isn't doc or SK) and a 50% chance to kill him the day after. This is an improvement from the previous 25% to 50% chance we had before, which was already pretty good.


I'd like more time to discuss things.

Mod: Request Deadline Extension




Assuming that doesn't happen:

Vote: J

I'd really like J to die today, but am wiling to vote Circus when I check tomorrow's votecount if my vote is needed.



SOMEONE HAS TO SEND OUT THE CONTRACTS TOMORROW. Remember that. If you do we shouldn't lose no matter how badly we **** up, and if we do it's more to chance than anything else.

 

[Overswarm]

Oh, and forgot this one, very important for the Doc's decision on whether to claim:

If the doc successfully protects tonight and tomorrow:

5 man into 4 man into 3 or 2 man (both are the same)

Successfully protecting twice in a row is the most helpful for us; it is however the least likely and the most illogical course of action.


It's up to you whether you want to roll the dice or not. Personally, I wouldn't claim Doc status tonight if I was the Doc unless there was a deadline extension because there's no way the lynch is going to sway from J or Circus within 24 hours.


Think hard, Doctor.

 

[#HBC | J]

Because I didn't know until now.

That's not a reason at all...

 

[Overswarm]

That's not a reason at all...

How is it not an appropriate answer to why you weren't on the top of my list?

 

[#HBC | J]

I was referring to how I'm the SK in your eyes.

 

[I am Zim!]

No deadline extension will be granted.

 

[#HBC | ZoZo]

(I don't know which would be better; the first one gives more control but I don't know if it is legal)

That is cool.

(if the mod doesn't allow this, then say until Day phase ten)

Day phase ten will do.

 

[Circus]

Expected that.

Look, I have neither the time nor the patience to get back into this pissing contest with J right before deadline. I've said my piece and J has said his. Anyone paying attention to this game should be able to see what he's lying about and what he's trying to spin. I've been here the whole game, taking stances, backing them up, getting into the nitty-gritty of the big arguments of the Day. J's been gone half the Day, totally copped out of the whole Asdioh gambit/back-peddle fiasco, and has been playing in the backseat all game, despite what he would like to argue.

The choice, at this point, is basically up to Swords and Asdioh, as I believe they're the only ones not voting right now. Whichever one of you votes next is likely going to decide the swing for the Day, so just think about it and make a decision. J and July obviously aren't going to be moving their votes, and OS has said that he's willing to, so obviously the odds are not in my favor right now. The only way we get J is if both of you (Swords and Asdioh) decide to follow OS and I on this and soon.

If I do die toDay, please just lynch J tomorrow (unless he does claim doc or something, obv.). After that, lynch Asdioh if he's still around. I think he's the mafioso and genuinely gave up on the game after Raz died, until suddenly a burst of last minute energy drove him to play it off as a gambit and try to see how much farther he could get. At first I shrugged off his crazy scummy "gambit" because I really couldn't see what would drive Scumdioh to change his mind after already throwing in the towel, but at this point, obvious scum might just be obvious scum. He's been playing a really shallow game, really not taking any hard stances anywhere (even less than J), he seemed a little bitter about the deadline extension we got earlier and really hasn't seemed at all interested in trying make use of it.

 

[Asdioh]

It's true, I voted for the deadline extension in the hopes it wouldn't happen.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

OK SO I'M HERE!

So I guess I need to decide who dies toDay? Asdioh you should get in here so we can talk about this.

Let me do what I said I was going to do in my last post.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Ahh nvm saw you online but I guess I missed you.

 

[Circus]

It's true, I voted for the deadline extension in the hopes it wouldn't happen.

Like mafia wouldn't vote for a deadline extension when it's brought up to get brownie points. All I'm saying is that I'm detecting what I believe to be some buyer's remorse in that 318.

It's cool that you're conceding my other points though.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Hmmmm, rereading Circus and J.

"Circus is too antagonistic to be the sk this game, as the sk wouldn't try to make enemies like he did."

Someone who likes Circus as SK, tell me why that's wrong.

 

[Overswarm]

I don't know if you're going to get much discussion, Swords. We don't have too much longer for the deadline; don't let it go to No Lynch, this is a chance we won't get back.

 

[#HBC | ZoZo]

Voted |

Voter(s)​

|

Votes to lynch​

Circus​

|

J, July​

|

2 / 4​

J​

|

Overswarm, Circus​

|

2 / 4​

Not voting: Asdioh, Sworddancer.

Voteblocked:

With 6 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline: Tuesday March 20, 11:59 CET

Deadline is in >4 hours from this post.​

 

[Asdioh]

Vote: Circus

I will switch to J if need be.

 

[Overswarm]

Up to you, Sworddancer.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Someone answer me please? Even if we don't have much time let, it's really is relevant to who I pick.

I'm going to just read J and Circus now (as oppose to writing down my thoughts on both, which I was doing), as I don't really have much time left. I'm going try to finish within an hour from now so I can get a claim from the one I pick.

Also, OS, what do you think of J accepting Gheb's contract?

See, I got less than three hours, but I think I can do this.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Circus, in your 80, just what was it that was scummy about J already forming a strong allienge with Gheb and accepting his contract without question? Was it because you already thought they might of been a scumteam together, and if so, does that accusation still hold up at all in anyway?

 

[Circus]

For what it's worth, I already claimed.

Asdioh is definitely scum.

Circus, in your 80, just what was it that was scummy about J already forming a strong allienge with Gheb and accepting his contract without question? Was it because you already thought they might of been a scumteam together, and if so, does that accusation still hold up at all in anyway?

One idea that I had bouncing around my head before the game even started was that the mafia team may try to distance themselves via contracts (I ask Gheb about what he would do with contracts as mafia for this reason). When I saw such a frivolous contract formed between J and Gheb, I jumped on it for that reason. I found the idea of townGheb wanting to read J better somewhat believable, but J accepting the thing so readily bugged me regardless of whatever Gheb might be, which is why I focused on J more than Gheb on D1.

Obviously the J-Gheb connection was wrong. But I still find the idea of scumJ accepting a relatively pointless contract in order appear agreeable and cooperative quite believable. That J stopped abiding by the stipulations of the contract once Gheb was gone boosts the believability, in my opinion.

At the time, I perceived J's trust in Gheb as a tell that J was unwittingly showing that he was mates with Gheb. Now I find it more likely that J was simply choosing his buddies. He decided that he had this contract with Gheb and was going to defend him from scrutiny as a result, even though he really shouldn't have had any reason to trust Gheb's intent any more than my own or anyone else's, at the time. The fact remains that J wasn't really that interested in examining Gheb before accepting the contract and making excuses on Gheb's behalf after it was called into question, which only makes sense if he is of an alignment that doesn't really have any incentive to study people—scum. He just figured defending Gheb would give him a buddy and would paint mean, ol' Circus as a bad guy. It seems to have worked.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Okay, and how do you feel about the contract he tried to set up with Ryker, if anything at all?

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Also, how do you feel about Gheb's accustion of OS back during Day 1 that OS is "overemphasing teamwork?"

I know I might be overwhelming you but trust me, this is all relevant.

 

[Circus]

Okay, and how do you feel about the contract he tried to set up with Ryker, if anything at all?

Nothing really. It may have even been a genuine plea for Ryker to not be a **** this game; I don't know. Doesn't affect my opinion much.

But while I'm posting, I might as well point you to my 320, as I think it's a good example of what I was talking about above (J coming to Gheb's defense for no reason other than perhaps to buddy him, stepping on his own previously stated convictions to do it), as well as a glaring example of J's cognitive dissonance in regards to what sounds like a towny thing to say "people who are trying to manipulate votes are bad!" and what is actually in his best interests "well, I've already started buddying Gheb. I'm sure he had a reason for doing what he did...."

Also, how do you feel about Gheb's accustion of OS back during Day 1 that OS is "overemphasing teamwork?"

I know I might be overwhelming you but trust me, this is all relevant.

I think it's typical of OS to do what he's doing and I think it's typical of Gheb (and just about anyone else) to be wary of it. I do think OS has put far too much of his time and energy into the numbers game here; I'd prefer to see a lot more straight-up scum hunting from him. But there's just so much scum in this game that I can't even.

 

[Raziek]

<mod>
Xonar's gotten himself temp banned, so I'll be giving you all a ghetto flip when the lynch is decided.

One hour and thirty minutes till deadline.
</mod>

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Circus, one last thing, what do you think of J's stated suspicion of OS?

 

[Circus]

When I saw that Raz posted in here, I was like "what the **** happened in the last five minutes?"

Circus, one last thing, what do you think of J's stated suspicion of OS?

I don't think it's very well thought out. His reads list, as a whole, basically just goes in order from "most hostile to J" to "most friendly to J." His placement of OS on that list seems to reflect an uneasiness with OS moving forward, rather than an actual suspicion.

His choices as to whether someone is more likely to be the SK or mafia also look pretty arbitrary. That he doesn't give reasoning for why he feels one way over another is a problem, and lends to the idea that J's not really basing these things on any in-depth observations.

 

[Circus]

Man, I hope July or Asdioh is here but just invisible or something. Because if neither one of them show up to change their vote, you kind of only have one option for the lynch anyway.

 

[Asdioh]

I'M KINDA HERE

making dinner

 

[July]

When is deadline again? I can be here until 5:45 pm approximately, so I'll change my vote if I have to.

@Swords: I saw Circus' antagonism as possible for the sk because the sk has to be scumhunting too, and I would imagine he'd be even more concerned about quickly establishing who is mafia so that he can figure out whether keeping them alive or nking them will be most beneficial.

@Everyone: Is the contract thing still happening toDay?

 

[Circus]

I think deadline's in 45 minutes.

And I believe the contract thing is happening toMorrow. Assuming whoever's left alive is willing and able to enact it.

 

[July]

Ahh kk thank you.

We need to decide the lynch soon. Swords, where is your head at?

 

[Sato.]

deadline in 1.5 hours from now.

That was a slight miscommunication with Razzy <3

 

[Circus]

Ah, thank you (Xonar?).

Still, if July only has 15 or 20 minutes, then you guys should probably figure this out sooner rather than later.

 

[Overswarm]

Also, OS, what do you think of J accepting Gheb's contract?

Stupid. However, basic logic makes it impossible to "read". We had no prior engagements in regards to contracts before signage, I looked into that to make sure. While it is stupid, stupid isn't necessarily scummy.


I have to agree with most of Circus' thoughts on J. His reads list is literally how hostile they are towards him, and he is buddying July hardcore. It's like textbook indie endgame. The SK needs someone else; the only exception to that is you, Sworddancer. Everyone else needs a buddy to put them low on the list for lynching.

And I bet that buddy will live through the night.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Circus, you are answering these question's "correctly." I'm asking you these questions to see how your thoughts line up with mine.

After my quick reread of you vs. J early on in the game, I found that I found J kinda being "buddy-buddy" to everyone instead of just scumhunting. In matter of fact, the only person I remember him attacking besides you is OS a little bit, and Raz, a little bit (although the last one is justifiable because Raz only posted a minimum amount of content). Whenever he did state suspicion of someone other than you, he always seemed to back out of it. For OS, he would say stuff like "I wouldn't cry if OS was lynched (this is sometime after OS mafe his case on J) buuuuuuuuuut . . . there's also counter reason x . . . ". In matter of fact there are two examples of this in 146, one against OS and one against Gheb.

Also, he only attacked you after you attacked him. Now, I'm not calling OMGUS and saying that it's scummy, but I am saying that it definitely doesn't help J's credibility. His behavior, early game, is much more of what I would expect a sk to be like.

Yours, on the other hand, wasn't. You started off much too antagonistic for me to like you as a sk. However, heb does make this argument for you scum, and it does catch my attention:

Currently reading CircuSK and OS - J mafia team.

I think J's "wall" on Circus has merit enough but I'm also thrown off by the fact that he's only voting him a post later with an imho rather lousy explanation. It's really interesting how thin the line between the attitudes of a "concerned townie" and " the SK vs the rest" in this game is. I can't say Circus is giving me the impression that he is the former - I think he is too much focused on emphasizing the negative on all occasions for that.
I remember making a similar point @ him in Superheroes mafia, where I said that as town he's usually more "considerate" ... his response was "don't you mean gullible?" That attitude really adds up with how he's been playing so far imo.

Pay special note to the bolded, because I often feel like this is applicable to you. Also, even J was attacking you for more or less this reason ("focusing on too many negatives, not viewing things fairly," seems like a similar accusation of you), so I have to give him credit where credit is due. Like, your attack seems to be of a flailing one, and it actually kinda reminds me of my scum play in RG where I felt like I "had" to be antagonistic to appear "townie."

I feel like his 146 is totally justified as a response to your 138.

J's 185 throws my for a loop. He spends the ENTIRE post counter attacking Circus's offense just to end the post by unvoting Circus because he suddenly decided that Circus was just "a silly townie with bad reasoning," although he didn't really do into just why he was dismissing his previous attacks on him. It seems disingenuous, and I wish J was here so I could question him on it.

This is all I really have time for. I have to apologize that my time management skills suck and that I didn't really get enough time to read this game/analyze stuff like I wanted to.

So, that said, I have to pick someone, and I've decided that really, both of them don't read super scum to me, at least not anymore than someone like, say, OS is. Both of them have their faults, but that could TOTALLY be just becuase they actually TRIED to keep up a level of activity, and when you're the most active weird **** gonna get posted.

So, anyways, I have no time to consider alternative routes, and I've decided.

vote: J

 

[Overswarm]

Asdioh, your vote please.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

I'm going with J due to several reasons. One, I can't remember why J reed so genuine to me. Looking through his posts again, he definitely seemed cautious with his scumhunting, besides from Circus, but again even a scum J needs to scumhunt in this set up. Also, while I think Circus's posts have been weird, they could be just that, weird. A lot of his behavior doesn't line up with how I think how the sk would of acted. Also, OS last post kinda sold me on it.

So there, blam. That's that.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Wait, we got about one hour until deadline, right?

 

[Raziek]

Voted |

Voter(s)​

|

Votes to lynch​

Circus​

|

J, July, Asdioh​

|

3 / 4​

J​

|

Overswarm, Circus, Sworddancer​

|

3 / 4​

Not voting:

Voteblocked:

With 6 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline: Tuesday March 20, 11:59 CET​

Deadline in 1 hour, 15 minutes.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Wait until a claim until we lynch. We don't need to lynch right away.

Asdioh, if you are online, you may hammer 15 minutes from deadline.