Housepets! Mafia - Game Over - Who lived happily ever after in Babylon Gardens?

[Kantrip]

That's fair enough, but I'm pretty sure he would have targeted Red Ryu if JTB's townflip changed his read on you. I know that he couldn't have targeted me because he would be alive, so it's between you two.

I think we should save John, personally. We can lynch either RR or TB and then, depending on flip, we will have an idea where to go from there.

I'll wait to hear T-Block "prove his role" and then I want everyone to order their top lynches.

 

[T-block]

Well... you know all of us are going to say we couldn't have been the target because he wouldn't have died =P You may be right that he would switch to RR before to you, but the fact that he died points to it being you from my perspective, because I can see your play being scumplay well before I can see RR's being scumplay.

I...can't prove my role after what happened last Night -_- You'll see why if/when I claim. I think I'll claim soon, but I don't see reason to right now.

 

[Kantrip]

So you can't prove your role?

I personally think T-Block, RR, and I should claim toDay.

 

[T-block]

I might be down.

Not quite yet though... still things I want to see play out.

 

[Kantrip]

That's fine.

Also I know it means nothing for me to say TPK couldn't have targeted me. I know he didn't though, so I'm more laying it out for myself by saying that.

 

[T-block]

I hate when people do stuff like that. It's like when people put themselves at the top of town on their read lists lol

 

[Kantrip]

Sure it's wifom, but mod-confirmed town is the best town read possible.

 

[Kantrip]

So I feel fine with claiming whenever, as I want to make sure we have enough time to make a decision toDay. Perhaps I could even claim before my next class. Or I could wait, I'm not sure.

 

[Jim Morrison]

Why so eager to claim?

 

[John2k4]

Eager to clear himself of the suspicion over the whole cult leader thing, probably.

 

[Terywj [태리]]

John, you have yet to speak up for anything regarding all your contradictions / bad assumptions on various slots. I don't know why other people are quite hesitant to lynch you at the moment (like you, I do not understand "playing alone") but I will be more than happy to place you in hammer range if you don't start speaking up.

But then again, TokyoGamer...

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

After reading last night, pretty sure Tblock is right about john not being targetted, though I am not removing the possibility of him being it entirely.

If Tblock is the role I think he is, i'm props not going to lynch him since I think I Understand who he is after seeing Auspher turn up as Peanut.

Which would in turn point me to Kantrip.

John has a lot of contradictions and he is dropping and picking up random things, but honestly, I can't see him as scum not with how him and tokyo have been playing. Still it's hard for a definative read but I can't see it being that clearly for either.

Also kan, you points linking me to John are wifom, why he is buddying me is not a scumtell.

 

[Jim Morrison]

After re-reading

Since it looks like I'm going to be the lynch, I'll leave my last words.

TG7 is town and I've already explained it.

If T-Block is scum, he would be an indy, so don't play him off as town just because he's one of the more experienced players.

Just because Auspher claims a main character does not mean it can't be a safeclaim.

Tery might be playing off his meta of being generally useless to coast as scum. Same with TPK.

Kantrip should be the first person looked at tomorrow, his complete change in his read on me is awful and I already talked about it.

I don't know about RR and frankly I don't care.

John seems more intent on getting claims out of people rather than lynching scum, look at him as well.

Tunnel vision is bad.

Our dead man's last words.
And I still agree with his read on Kantrip. Somewhere around the start of page 17 (20 ppp) you were still defending JTB's lynch in that he was too expierenced to lose and also that you thought he was town.

Fast forward to page 19, it was becoming more apparent that the lynch would be between JTB and Auspher.

Because I think he's town and experienced. You seem so dead-set that he's scum, and I just don't see how you could be so positive about that read on D1. Of course, my town read on him is mostly me saying "I cannot see him doing that to himself if he's scum", where in several cases he's brought attention to himself (such as when he went back on his reads and openly admitted to them changing).

My reasoning is far from sound, and JTB's lynch would give us plenty of connections, so I will vote him to avoid a mislynch if it comes down to it.

So, Kantrip still thinks JTB is town, that's great, JTB was town! He stated that he would be willing to vote for JTB, just because it gives him connections. This is 100% contradictory to his previous argument that we shouldn't lynch expierenced players. He believes JTB, one of the best players, is town, yet still would be willing to vote him off.
He created a way for himself to still vote for JTB if it would be a better option.

In the following pages, in every post, his stance on JTB changed ever so slightly from "No, losing expierenced players is bad. Especially if I think they are town" to "I'd be willing to vote off an expierenced townie if he provided some connections." In 417 he basically admits to sheeping with the stronger players even if he doesn't support the lynch.

Then comes the part where an Auspher lynch doesn't seem feasible, because of claiming the main character with VT.

Kan, question:

Yeah JTB can be scum.

When you said this, what suddenly made you change your mind over the one post JTB made? Was it his doubting of a clear, as he stated later on the page?

Obviously he needed a justification for his vote, so then what?

JTB, I want to know why your intentions were townie and who you think is scum.

With regards to what?

Your gambit specifically. You said the intentions earlier and they didn't match up with what you were really doing.

My intention was a read on TG7 and I got my read on TG7. I don't know what you are getting at.

T-block covered earlier how TG7 was not your focus during the gambit. You didn't even get the town read you say you got until after you were questioned about him remaining null.

Vote:JTB

That's interesting. He states the reason for his vote is how JTB played is his gambit. Let's rewind a bit, to Kantrip's 331.

I'm not sure how to read what JTB did. On one hand, he played a gambit and then focused on other players' reactions to it rather than the subject (TG7) of it. However, he has provided a read on TG& due to his gambit: town. He claimed that this was from a re-read. I don't see why scum would change their read like that on purpose. All it would do is direct scrutiny at them when all they want it to look town. Unless you're insinuating that his reads changing was a slip. From what you're saying about JTB's abilities as scum, I don't think he would have a slip like that.

I have him as town for now, simply because his answers to questions were reasonable where his gambit was poorly executed. A poorly executed gambit comes out looking town more than scum to me, because scum would make sure they do it 100% correctly, would they not?

Wow, now that is a stunning read. The bolded parts are the reasons why he thought was town, yet a few pages later, they are the reason to jump on JTB's wagon, the next easiest target.

I don't think I could have said it better than JTB himself;

His jump on me sucked. He's stated before that he doesn't find me scummy and wouldn't support my lynch, yet once I question ausphers claim, he calls me scummy for reasons still unknown to me and votes me for something I did before stated his town read on me. he's lookking for a way to jump on my wagon and I caught it.

Later on you basically say you opposed T-block's case to get a read on him and this is why you defended JTB.
I call bull**** on this, you can't just say you already agreed but just wanted to oppose him first for a read and expect us to buy it and be all like "oh sure no problem".
If this was your intention, you should have said this the moment you switched to JTB, and not switching to JTB trying to be subtle and having bad logic.

 

[T-block]

Gustave doing stuff? =o Haven't read it yet, but I approve

Tery, TG7 is not going to be lynched. Either make a more convincing case or focus on what's important - that being me, RR and Kantrip atm.

Kantrip, if you could vig either me or RR right now which would it be?

RR, I was searching for stuff, and I actually found it, but it wasn't any good to me anymore. I'm heartbroken =(

 

[Jim Morrison]

Tery, TG7 is not going to be lynched. Either make a more convincing case or focus on what's important - that being me, RR and Kantrip atm.

Well, if someone was ever to make a case on TG7, that's a big problem. He hasn't said or done anything other than request a modkill. You can't make a case against that which does not post.

 

[Terywj [태리]]

Well, if someone was ever to make a case on TG7, that's a big problem. He hasn't said or done anything other than request a modkill. You can't make a case against that which does not post.

^This. Guus looking more town. I approve.

 

[John2k4]

You can't make a case against that which does not post.

Majora's Mask Mafia.

 

[T-block]

i meant convince us why we should lynch him, not so much make a case pointing out why he's scum

do you realize what kind of situation we are in if we lynch him and he flips town?

usually i don't make that kind of argument about useless players, but in this case i've got a decent town read on him, and others do too

 

[T-block]

the main point of that being: do you actually think it's likely that tg7 will flip scum?

 

[Jim Morrison]

As likely as he was when no one had posted a thing yet...

I'm not saying that I'd want to lynch TG7, I was just pointing out that it's not really feasible to build a case against him. The whole case on him would just be external factors that would have determine that he is scum. I'd much rather see him be replaced by Gatlin, to be honest. (and no offense to TG)

 

[John2k4]

No one in particular here, but I don't really like replacements in general, since they'll take a couple days at least to get caught up, and then you are stuck dealing/reading/analyzing with a completely new person after you've had a chance to figure out the person who left.

Ah well stuff happens, and replacements keep the game flowing.

 

[Terywj [태리]]

John, I'll once again redirect you to Kantrip's and my posts on you.

 

[T-block]

^Seconding that.

And Tery, I'll ask you who you would lynch between me, RR, and Kantrip right now, given what has happened so far.

 

[Terywj [태리]]

Well. The toss between Red Ryu and Kantrip is problematic simply because I can't address the metagame analysis, but I have Kantrip as more town in my mind. And I've had you as a town read for a while. The only "negative" on you is the Cult Leader targeting speculation, which is obviously not something concrete.

Maaan.

 

[Kantrip]

Wow someone closed my tab while I was away from the computer. My responses were probably better before.

Why do people think the cult leader speculation makes me look scum? Was there something wrong with my analysis, or is me bringing this up in the first place a scummy thing to do?

 

[T-block]

No one is calling you scum for it...

 

[Kantrip]

I like Gustave more now, I think I can move his read up from null.

With regards to my D1 play, there's not really anything else I can say. What is for sure is that my read on JTB changed. Anything else I try to say will be WIFOM to everyone else. What I will say is that you should read my posts directly following T-Block's case. You can tell I agreed with the case, as I told him his points were good and valid and that I liked what he said, etc. It honestly was more of an afterthought to get a read on T-Block through opposing the JTB lynch, but I can say with sincerity that I failed at that. I can see where people are coming from when they say how it looks to them seeing my opinion go back and forth.

I imagine this may look similar to what John did (although he's done it more often).

If people think that I may have been targeted by TPK's ability, I want to know why. From what I've seen, TPK has town reads on T-Block and Red Ryu and on those two only. The flip may have swayed him on T-Block town, but not to the point of him liking me better. It is a possibility, sure, but I know scum is between Red Ryu and T-Block.

Assuming town has a cop, we can cover the most ground by going with a lynch one, cop one, and act toMorrow approach to this. I want everyone to give me a list of who they'd want lynched out of the 3 of us in order from most want lynched to least want lynched.

My list would be:
1. Red Ryu
2. T-Block
3. Kantrip

On a Red Ryu scum flip, I would go after John toMorrow. On a town flip, cop should investigate either me or T-Block. T-Block should be guilty in that scenario, and we can go from there.

To answer your question T-Block, if I were a vig and had to shoot one of you or Red Ryu, it would be a close toss-up but I would pick Red Ryu mostly due to having less content. I would rather not shoot either in that situation, however, because the pressure of a wagon or impending lynch can do wonders for getting reads on other players, and a vig shot would eliminate that.

 

[Kantrip]

Well. The toss between Red Ryu and Kantrip is problematic simply because I can't address the metagame analysis, but I have Kantrip as more town in my mind. And I've had you as a town read for a while. The only "negative" on you is the Cult Leader targeting speculation, which is obviously not something concrete.

Maaan.

Am I misinterpreting this?

 

[T-block]

Yeah - Tery is saying I've been a town read of his, and the only reason he would have to think I'm scum is that TPK died.

 

[Kantrip]

Oh okay, I didn't realize that was directed at you.

Yeah that's basically where I sit wrt you. The reason it doesn't bug me is because I know you're a smart enough player to do everything you've done thus far as scum. The fact that you lead a mis-lynch doesn't help when you look at it objectively, either.

 

[Terywj [태리]]

Am I misinterpreting this?

Yeah - Tery is saying I've been a town read of his, and the only reason he would have to think I'm scum is that TPK died.

I was referring to T-Block, yes.

 

[T-block]

What is for sure is that my read on JTB changed.

What do you mean it changed? Can you be more specific? It changed from what to what and when?

It's bad that I have to even ask this question -_-

To answer your question T-Block, if I were a vig and had to shoot one of you or Red Ryu, it would be a close toss-up but I would pick Red Ryu mostly due to having less content. I would rather not shoot either in that situation, however, because the pressure of a wagon or impending lynch can do wonders for getting reads on other players, and a vig shot would eliminate that.

How does RR having less content lead to wanting to shoot him over me?

 

[Kantrip]

Well, the read noticeably went from "I agree with T-Block's case" to "I think he's town" to "I'm fine with lynching him" to "JTB can be scum". I was merely describing what other people saw it as. If I tried to push the fact that I was just trying to get a read on you, it would be WIFOM again. If people want to look in to me, I'm fine with this. If we have a cop who didn't cop me last night, they can do so toNight if they wish (that is assuming I'm alive toMorrow, though).

What I mean by RR having less content is that he's just been less useful in scumhunting and you have provided us with more content, more questions, more reads. This does not say anything about my reads between the two of you, but the problem is that it could go either way for me. That's why I would base my shot off of Red Ryu being less involved. It would be easier to look back at your posts and get a read than it would be to look back at Red Ryu's posts and get a read. This is all assuming I HAD to make the shot. I would rather not, as I said.

@John, Tery, Gustave: What do you guys think the chances are that Red Ryu and T-Block could both be scum? Do you see anything in their interactions (or lack thereof) that suggest this? Anything that makes it a less likely scenario?

 

[T-block]

Mkay.

I know. I said we have enough players to make use of your interactions (AKA like 2 or 3).

As long as someone is alive toMorrow to analyze things...

Dammit, the more I look at this, the worse it looks.

T-Block, assuming there is a cop, can they just cop JTB and we lynch a useless sheep toDay? I am really worried about MyLo.

Can you explain what you were thinking with this post then?

 

[Kantrip]

In that post, iirc, I was looking back and thinking while I posted. Like, my thoughts were kind of changed in that post. I went from thinking we were good and we could get reads off of JTB's flip, regardless of alignment. Then I second guessed myself and worried that he could still be town and that we might still need him for endgame. Basically I was thinking we should establish a fallback (not TG7 though, he was and is town to me).

I recall Red Ryu telling the doc to protect you just before the Day ended. Did you not find this suspicious at all? To me it feels like he could be scum directing the doc so he doesn't have to worry about his NK being protected. Isn't it usually better to create WIFOM situations with doc protect? Directing the doc to one person just makes it really obvious (if you're playing with newer players) who NOT to kill in the night.

 

[Kantrip]

John, I am waiting for you to come to a decision between Red Ryu and T-Block.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Kantrip, what about John from that list?

You put me at the top a lot faster than your interest in John.

 

[Kantrip]

I still think John is scummy, but I think we can wait a Day to lynch him. I want to figure out the scum between you and T-Block first, for one: If we mis-lynch we'll be in MyLo (I'm pretty sure), so we'll want to have the choice between the two of you narrowed down, and two: John is much less likely to influence town and cause them to follow him blindly into a mis-lynch and subsequent loss. I can see you or T-Block doing that long before John.

Thus, finding which one of you two is scum is the priority for me, toDay.

 

[Jim Morrison]

I still think John is scummy, but I think we can wait a Day to lynch him. I want to figure out the scum between you and T-Block first, for one: If we mis-lynch we'll be in MyLo (I'm pretty sure), so we'll want to have the choice between the two of you narrowed down, and two: John is much less likely to influence town and cause them to follow him blindly into a mis-lynch and subsequent loss. I can see you or T-Block doing that long before John.
Thus, finding which one of you two is scum is the priority for me, toDay.

Just getting this straight, the only reason you think one of them HAS to be scum is that tPK died? I have to agree with T-block there, you'd have to be open to the possibility of another killing faction (indie?). Also, no one can ever know for sure who tPK targeted. He might not have targeted the most obvious ones, after he saw JTB's mislynch. His stance on both of the players could have changed.
I too carry suspicion towards RR and T-block because of the death of tPK, but we really shouldn't have tunnel vision on them off a speculation. If you can provide more reasoning that one of them is scum, I'd consider joining your wagon.

The bolded part is terrible logic. You want to lynch one of them first in case of a mislynch and then John the Day after. You're basically saying you think John could be a mislynch, but you'd instead be fine with lynching him in MyLo, where his mislynch could kill us all?

Why wouldn't you be fine with lynching John now and one of them later, when we have more information to look at from both of them? If it's because of their influence, you'll just have to convince everyone to not jump on their wagons and just look at them objectively.

 

[Kantrip]

That's not my logic at all.

I'm saying we should lynch one of T-Block or Red Ryu toDay. If the flip is scum, then I would look into John toMorrow (because we wouldn't be in MyLo). However, if we lynch the wrong one, we should look heavily at the other one.

This is only a reliable method if we have a cop. I'm assuming we do, and that they got an inno on somebody already. After the lynch toNight, they can investigate the next target: On a scum flip, investigating John would be logical, and on a town flip, investigating either me or the other of either RR or T-Block that we didn't lynch.

We have already established that TPK could not have targeted anyone but Red Ryu, me, or T-Block, logically. I also do not think the kill is related to an indy. Being "found dead" in the night, along with being a role that we all agree dies if they target scum - it's pretty unlikely that we're wrong about this.