Thanks for that deadline reminder, RR. I don't think I should wait to post this any longer.
I think we should lynch JTB.
===Strong town read on T-block===
JTB states in
116 that I am his strongest town read.
T-Block has only posted once and he's already my strongest town read since he's the only player that actually realized what I was doing. Nothing short of expected though, he's probably the most competent player in this game.
(...)
I'll be looking at those who also refused to join the wagon and watching them closely (pretty much everyone except T-block).
What is his reasoning for this read? That I recognized that he was attempting a gambit and went along with it. Both town and scum players can recognize a gambit and support it... the fact that a player recognizes a gambit should tell how experienced or how skilled that player is. It is not indicative of alignment. JTB is not a new player - he knows this, yet simply going along with the gambit is enough to land me as the only player he won't be looking closely at? That doesn't make any sense to me. I think JTB is attempting to get on the good side of (excuse the arrogance) one of the strongest players in this game. I cannot see a player of JTB's calibre honestly labelling me as town for that.
===Motivation behind his gambit===
JTB started the day with a daycop gambit, claiming a guilty on TG7. In explaining his gambit, he provides this reasoning for his choice of target:
a) He's a player I literally know nothing about so I figured he was new to mafia and wanted to see his reaction
b) Since the game started immediately following role pms being sent out, if he happened to be scum, I could get a reaction from him before he talked to a scummate.
This shows that he claims he went into the gambit with the intent of gaining information on TG7. Now, read the rest of his
116. Nowhere in that post does he offer any stance on TG7. In fact, he actually outright says that he did not get anything from TG7:
Of course, this only works if people actually put votes on him so that he feels pressured, but people are dense as **** and can't see intent if it smacked them upside the face.
But it wasn't in vain as I did get reads from other players due to it.
But then his most recent appearance gives us post
245:
I have TG7 as town. The way he reacted to it in the beginning was very nonchalant, as if he knew I was lying about my claim already.
...where he gives reasoning for having TG7 as town from things that happened before 116. His posts do not line up here - why not mention this reasoning in 116, instead of saying that he couldn't get anything because everyone messed up? And there's more - he states that one of TPK's reasons for defending TG7:
He is scum with TG7 and trying to redirect pressure onto me by debunking my claim.
He is implicating TG7 as scum here. This reason is not offered as a possibility - it is offered as a truth. So, we have that he was unable to learn anything about TG7 and that TG7 is scum in the same post, and then TG7 is town based on things that happened before 116. He is not being consistent.
It's clear that JTB did not have TG7 in the front of his mind when writing 116. So what does he do instead?
He casts suspicion on basically every player in the game. This comes back to the idea that both scum and town alike can recognize or fail to recognize a gambit - JTB should know that failing to recognize a gambit is not a scum tell, especially for newer or weaker players, yet he explicitly says he will keep a close eye on those who questioned him. In this way, he is poised to jump on any wagon that develops except for mine - rather convenient then that he disappeared for over 48 hours right after, no? I think there is also an intimidation factor to his post:
I'll be looking at those who also refused to join the wagon and watching them closely
Weaker players will likely be more wary of crossing JTB after a post like this. I am unsure of whether this was intentional, but the effect is definitely there.
I question his motivations behind pulling the gambit. I think it is quite clear that a read on TG7 was no more than a secondary motivation. It looks more like an attempt to gain town credibility, and to intimidate weaker players by harshly pointing out supposed flaws in their play, rather than to gain reads.
===Inconsistent behaviour between his treatment of RR and Gustave===
In
116 he states RR as his strongest scum read. The reasoning he offers is that RR went against the gambit, then later goes along with it. He states that this is trying to garner town points while trying to make him look less credible.
But there is another person who did very similar actions. Look at Gustave's
40, then his
58. He opposes the gambit and then directs a post at Tokyo, using the gambit to try to gain information. Why does Gustave not get any suspicion? Why is RR his strongest scum read, while Gustave is not mentioned
at all in his 116? Gustave was also one of the most active posters in the early game.
What does this suggest? It probably suggests that his pressure on RR is not sincere. But more importantly, it suggests that JTB is not paying attention to Gustave's actions. This is called selective scumhunting, and I find it highly unlikely that a town member would be justified in doing so.
This should be taken into account with Gustave's somewhat contradictory behaviour with regard to the gambit. Then, in his
175, he states that just the fakeclaim is enough to "clear" JTB for him. His main reasoning is that he finds it hard to believe that scum would put themself in the spotlight. This is an incredibly weak reasoning, as scum could easily do that. I strongly feel that scumJTB will lead us to scumGustave.
This lynch has it all - scum tells and connections =o Pretty much everyone has given an opinion on JTB, even though some didn't offer much
vote: JTB
Let's see those votes.
