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Half Life: Full Life Consequences Mafia - Game Over - Who Won?

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Actually, I want to weigh in on that opinion a bit.

If the jailer is sure they bingo'd the abductor should they come out?

My opinion, I think they should, would get WL back in the game and I got a town read on him.

I want everyone to comment on their thoughts on this of their opinion and why.
 

#HBC | Gorf

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Actually yea Vote: Red Ruy. No matter how much you ask you won't get any reasoning from me AT LEAST within the hour.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Also considering if we need to mass claim, worst case scenario today could end in a kingmaker situation if scum is a 3 man with the abductor still around.

Need to number crunch later, after the exam.

If not, it needs to happen tomarrow at the latest.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Need to reread again considering both flips.

Now here is what I thought thus far.

If the set-up is 2 man mafia with abductor, holding off on a mass claim is better. Since we got another day without needing to out roles.

The problem is, while this is Kuz and he is creative based on what I saw from TTGL he hosted. He could do that, but he still follows the meta formula around here, 3 mafia 1 indy, for 13 man from what I have seen from his games. So I am under the assumption it is a 3 man for fear of Worst Case Scenario and thinking of what Kuz would do.

If it is a 3 man with an abductor, then we might need to do it now.

There are a lot of if's and maybe's that can go down tonight, abductor dies WL comes back. Mafia gets abducted. In both those situations, not doing a mass claim is better, it wouldn't be necessary.

If we ML today, then mafia hits a townie and the Abductor hits a townie, it can turn into 2 v 1 v 2 which is a semi-kingmaker, if the abductor gets lynched there there town has a chance to win, if town gets lynched, they lose either to the Abductor or Mafia.

If we lynch mafia, no kingmaker at all, same for lynching the abductor. 1 v 1 v 3 or 2 v 5, either is better situation than the above.

But then there are situations that could end badly.

If we ML, then two townies go away, it turns into 2 v 1 v 2, that's bad if the abductor doesn't die/get lynched. Then a lot of bad could happen again with this kingmaker unless scum turn on each other.

~

I think it is better if we don't mass claim after looking over this all, but only on a scum flip. Which is why I think the jailer claim might be key if they are 100% sure they Bingo'd the Abductor with the jail.

Then and only then is the claim good, it is bad against mafia but the abductors existence is making it very hard to consider how swingy this could turn for one situation or another, it's possible off chance of night actions town can get boned hard. There is a chance, though counting the number of permutations it's small but it's there and possible.

Chances are against this, but I hate playing with luck on this.

I think a mass claim is not what should be done at this point, but a jailer claim, it would out scum, WL comes back and jailer can protect or try and block the kill. If the jailer did die, it would turn into a 2 v 5 at worst, 2 v 6 with a scum flip at best.

Town is in a far better position in this situation.

Thoughts?
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Full reason for the quick hammer, thought there was a possibility he was town. I wasn't going to roll over and protect him that hard for it. Told him to keep elaborating, he refused once, I threatened him with a hammer, still refused, went ahead and voted.

Looked at it like nothing more than an AtE cop out to me, even worse that I found his back off to be really off even more so with how he presented his case then refused to say anything on the matter.
That is why I did it.
 

Evil Eye

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hey boizz

Alright. I wrote my last exam yesterday, so I am pretty much in the clear from here on. Was too groggy and lazy to deal wth mafia yesterday. Still kinda am. deal widdit

I've skimmed the circumstances that led to JTB's lynch and toDay. Here's what I'm taking away from it:

FoS: RR

I really don't like Ruy's hammer. This was kind of hard to reconcile for me, because being down one scum already puts scum in a bad position, then if Ruy is another mafiat, is it really worth the factional damage of quickhammering just to deal with JTB? JTB, remember. Not like, Ryker, or myself, or well anyone that would be an active and aggressive threat.

But I've thrown all the question marks aside and with what's left, I don't like it. The action of hammering itself? Null. RR does whatever the **** he wants as town unless the vast majority of people have a profound problem with him, so after however many times he's been outed and lynched for his coasting as scum, I can see him finally learning to sack up when he's getting his bad guy thang on.

The manner of the hammer though. I want to look back and see what led him from (I'm pretty sure) vehemently defending JTB to pushing him, but the thing he focused on was so ****ing petty that it goes beyond RR's depth of being stupid and petty about something, imo. **** smells closer to, well, looking for an excuse to get dat ML.

So rewinding to the bit about factional damage to mafia, that in conjunction with RR getting a bit bug-eyed about the abduction has me thinking RR could himself be the abductor. This would actually also explain why he was able to fake the open and loud thing he does as town, which I've never seen him fake [successfully] before. Soooo yes. Rull good odds here. I want to reread but I really think RR could be the guy here, and if he is I'd def love to rip the abductor off like a bandaid and keep going with Wash's input.

I'm gonna eat dinner, watch some movies, wait for this coffee to kick in. When I get back in a few hours I'mma read D2-3 in full and tell you what I've got. If RR fits a bad guy look enough for me then I'll be all over summadat avec du vote. I still think he's got a good chance of bad guydom as it is, I just dunno what the votecount is, heh.

payyyyyyyyyce
 

Evil Eye

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Full reason for the quick hammer, thought there was a possibility he was town. I wasn't going to roll over and protect him that hard for it. Told him to keep elaborating, he refused once, I threatened him with a hammer, still refused, went ahead and voted.
This is horrendous.

The bulk of RR's argument about hammering (quickhammering no less) here doesn't even scantly relate to analysis. It just goes on at length about JTB not doing as instructed. Nowhere in this snippet does RR talk about things that actually point toward scum, and this is supposed to be the first thing that comes to mind when asked why he did it.
 

Evil Eye

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as for the jailer coming out, **** no. Not now at least. As I said yesterDay, outing the jailer is SACRIFICING the jailer, period. PERIOD. Why does no one seem to adequately consider this when they suggest outing the jailer...?

Although yes, jailer could have bingo'd the abductor, since there's not much solid rationale in No-'Ducting, I don't see the point if we're looking at lynching RR right now. I dislike RR's actions enough that I don't want to hear about jail results right now, and that's without an indepth read. Obv I'm biased here since I'm leaning abductor on RR but, well, so what? That's a pretty damn good reason.

But there's more... it's not even a confirmed bingo. The jailer might have just hit the abduction target instead of the abductor. We would STILL have to dig in and do the work to discern their result one way or the other, so I don't see the value at all.

esp not compared to having yet another night (maybe two!) of active jailing.
 

#HBC | Gorf

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K I did me some rereading of RR so I can get the juice for why I didn't like em and here's what I got for ya:

Yikes there are a lot of pages to read up on. =x

Sorry, but now I'm back from my V/LA so I will be reading after I catch up in another game but I guess don't expect much till tomorrow since I gotta do notes on this and the like.

Thank you for waiting on me (it seems from what I've skimmed)! I have like a little knowledge on what is going on like WK is the lynch target for toDay with cases on him galore and then like side-battles consisting of people not liking Gorf/JTB/JM(? this one I was confused on because people had mixed vibes. There was also Gorf's vote/case on Ryker.

Hey Xonar, I see nothing I dislike at the current time and have town vibes on you. I'm worried again. ;_;
Skimming/partial joke at Xonar due to a past aim conversation we had and our past history together. Whenever I have a town-read on him, he flips scum. The only game for that not to happen was Higurashi.
Not gonna use this as huge leverage toward my scumRuy read, but there is literally not a stance in the world to be found in either of these posts aside from the fact that J had town vibes from Xonar. The only thing to be assumed that this stems from is the either the whole him and Jim at the beginning fiasco or him with Werekill business. Regardless, it's a very easy stance to make about a player, especially considering the fact that there's literally no substantiating on it from em. He (was) my hydra partner in a-game-that-doesn't-exist, and lemme say that he DEFINITELY had enough time to be at least kinda attentive to this game, but rather than doing so, he leaves us with these gems of information. All in all there's a whole lot of nothing to be found in here, when I KNOW he could have substantiated at least a little.

I'm drawing allusions to Housepets here. http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?...ight=Housepets

JTB made a gambit that T-Block and Jim lynched him on his play during it when he played poorly and his reactions here seem similar.



This is T-Block's reasoning to push his lynch where he flipped town.

When JTB was pressured he gave this.



It's almost an exact parallel to this game with the frustration in how he reacted.
With this logic, he should be almost certain of a JTB town read, which I guess with dumbing my sense of legitimacy down can seem legitimate. And hell even after I attack his line of thought he DEFENDS his line of thought:

Ruy said:
5 months or so ago.

It's still too similar in how he reacted now if I reread that game and compare it here.
Yet...

Ruy said:
I'd rather the lynch be someone else since I have doubts you are scum but this is a good way to make me change my mind.

You will elaborate.
Ruy said:
I threaten a hammer, this is your last chance.
Ruy said:
I have a personal commitment to keep all promises I make to anyone. Have to make real on my threats

Vote: JTB
...he hammers his town read? Now I know what you're thinking, cuz I thought it too. How can a scummy be so belligerently inane and do something like this? Well think about it: It's committal, it looks like something that town would do (especially his little justification portion at the top of the third quote). But it's totally contradictory to his previous defense of JTB. Mafia behaviour? Nah. Indy/abductor behaviour? Very VERY possible.

All in all, do I see mafiaRuy? Not a chance, there's def other avenues to look down. But abductorRuy is looking VERY VERY possible in my eyes. Just look at the N1 abduction choice, Laundry. I don't think there's anybody here that can stray from the thought that Laundry played a very townie game D1, as well as there probably not being anybody who'd say that Laundry can't be a threat. But, looking from the abductor's POV, you have Ryker, EE, and Xonar who were very outspoken D1, moreso than the likes of Laundry, and very likely being that those three would be having protection. An indyRuy KNOWS about how Laundry can be, so it's a very safe thing to go ahead and abduct em and get em out of the way before he can really get any suspicion on you. All in all, I see indy written all over Ruy this game. So please, join me in stockpiling some votes on this kid.
 

#HBC | Gorf

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Oh man ironic *** ninja.

Ruy said:
as for the jailer coming out, **** no. Not now at least. As I said yesterDay, outing the jailer is SACRIFICING the jailer, period. PERIOD. Why does no one seem to adequately consider this when they suggest outing the jailer...?
Man that's what I'm saying but like look at what Ruy had to say about it... :smirk:...
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Dunno why jailing someone who make them protected from it when it other mafia games I've played with this didn't make them immune from night actions, Poisons and **** went right through that.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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I'm referring to where EE is saying it could have hit the abductors target, which I'm saying I don't see since I've played in past game before where being jailed never stop people from doing non night kill actions on them.
 

#HBC | ѕoup

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That wasn't even a direct statement to you, that was just in general.

It was a dumb lynch.
 

#HBC | Gorf

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Umm... You don't have to, it kinda takes common sense to understand... Kinda like when you're a cop and you get targeted for death, your investigation doesn't go through cuz, welp, you died...
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Copy
Hide
Bus
Block
Redirect
Protect
Miscellaneous
Kill
Recruit
Inspect

Thought it went before that after I got cop results in past game and died but guess not.
 

#HBC | Gorf

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Honestly I think abducting would fall under recruiting, but that's just speculation. Either way it's ultimately speculation and I'm totes against outing the jailer at this point.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Post to EE.

So the quick hammer, didn't point why it was scum. Yeah I did, at least from my perspective. His unvotes Gorf for really no reason other than him saying, "I read him wrong." Disgusting. His posts a case, really bad one at that with all sort of reaching and going into a lot of things that were pointed out to not be scum tells. Continues to push it hard.

Then out of nowhere says, "Nah don't feel it" Kantrip, Jim, and myself ask him why. He refuses to elaborate on why he changed his read so suddenly.

I'm not going to deal with that stuff, not at all. He was a viable lynch and he knew that. He knew people had questions about his alignment with his claim in mind. Others told him to do so, he fed then idgaf AtE. Told him to do so, he fed me an AtE garbage of no, told him I threaten a hammer if he refused one last time. Repreat as such.

This was not town AtE in my eyes at the time, this was a guy who was trying to feed my garbage back when I prodded him for why he changed. I thought he was town for pulling an almost OMGUS on Gorf which matched what he did to T-Block and flailed on how John and Tery were voting him for no reason. Repeated here somewhat, then move onto here. Not the same at all, he didn't care about defending himself, didn't care about helping his image.

I didn't have a sure scum read, but I really didn't care, dude trying to back off like that, wasn't a huge loss if he was town, being hated even more so with an indy+Mafia(s) running around is risky to leave. Could he have been town at that time and believable, sure, was willing to risk it based on his responses there. I don't deal with unresponsive players/liabilities, which is why vig is my favorite role in the game, I get rid of them. Same thing in Pulp, you coasting inactive, I shoot/lynch without hesitation. Your trying to AtE gambit wifom crap? I shoot/lynch. I don't deal with that, and do think it was well worth it for town here.

~

Now let's talk about that PR trading, I'd do it, Kuz would as well and I support this mindset, even more so when ahead. Who we be potentially sacricing it for a scum flip, sure if we knew for certain it was scum they jailed. Like I'm not convinced a jail stops an abductions since I think the reason it was put in to stop an abductor is the roleblocking, not he protections because every time I read jailer in mafia games, it said Night Kills. Nothing else. Poison goes through it and any other alt action like that. Heck even investigative and other roles will go through a jail.

Now back to the trading, it's worth it, mafia trading is always bad, always unless there is a huge gain, aka not one townie dying, getting multiple PRs killed, clearing a scummate as well while going down.

We're ahead and I would gladly throw away a PR for a scum in this situation, two VTs from town and a one semi tracker/watcher role. I'd do it, even more so if it gets WL back in the game.

I'm trusting the Jailer is smart enough to read their role PM to know and ask, aka do it if you are, if they protect from this. If they don't, we nail an Indy. I'm perfectly fine with this and knowing we could lose a jailer from this, assuming the jailer doesn't protect it means they guess who is mafia and kill, and if they get it right, another mafia nailed, yeah unlikely but completely fine with me.

I know the power of PRs, they are very important, but we should use them to get scum/mess with them. That is exactly what outing the Jailer would, lynch scum, get back a townie. I think it's perfectly fine to nail scum with a PR claiming.

Also this is new age Drunk Ruy, perfectly fine with trading walls with my, hope he considers me a bro, EE.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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K I did me some rereading of RR so I can get the juice for why I didn't like em and here's what I got for ya:





Not gonna use this as huge leverage toward my scumRuy read, but there is literally not a stance in the world to be found in either of these posts aside from the fact that J had town vibes from Xonar. The only thing to be assumed that this stems from is the either the whole him and Jim at the beginning fiasco or him with Werekill business. Regardless, it's a very easy stance to make about a player, especially considering the fact that there's literally no substantiating on it from em. He (was) my hydra partner in a-game-that-doesn't-exist, and lemme say that he DEFINITELY had enough time to be at least kinda attentive to this game, but rather than doing so, he leaves us with these gems of information. All in all there's a whole lot of nothing to be found in here, when I KNOW he could have substantiated at least a little.



And here's what we get from Ruy on his return to the game: 1st line is kinda le duh given that a.) EVERYONE'S been saying it, and b.) the whole PM fiasco. 2nd line isn't backed up in the least, and is clearly just thrown out there (which will be even more obvious in his "epiphany of townWL" post). 3rd line is regurgitation of what I said, but still I GUESS it's a stance. And hey telling yourself I GUESS it's a stance is a really bad friggin thing when you're looking at the first real post from a player so yea.



So WL's play reminds em of UTrick'd2 where he was indy (still, no detail -.-). Cool story. Werekill's wagon doesn't show much, whatever no biggie either way tbh... But the third line, looking at it again, is really off base. He asserts his opinion that there's a serial killer in the game, and tbh I had similar confusion as to the definition of FBI AGENT, but never did I assume there were two indy factions. I just got clarification that FBI agents are basically indy cops and then I was all good. Ruy, on the other hand, is asserting his opinion of there being a Serial Killer, and iirc this isn't the only time he does this. Confused town? Possibly, but unlikely. And of course he can't get around the abductor idea since there's obvious reason to believe the presence of one. The assertion of there being SK is just really tripping me out, and especially since he's not openly wondering if people can see the possibility of there being SK initially. He just... says it.



Show me the substance. I dare you. Of course, I knew he was on a phone so I didn't really think much about the matter... But then he gets on a computer and still a lot of NOTHING.





Here's a post well into his being on a computer (studying johns before this so yea) and still... bupkis. I mean yea here's something that looks nice and whatnot but it's ultimately bupkis.



Here's the epiphany post I was talking about. His suspicions on Laundry earlier were fueled by meta...? Whatevz, no biggie... It's just the fact that I don't see ANY of this in Laundry to begin with, and even if it's legit, I don't see why Ruy would go out of his way to correlate that shiz with this Laundry here. It does seem like A LOT of work to do, tying all of that together and making an entire meta suspicion from it. Some might say... it's FORCED. Hell, there's really very little reference, if any at all, to how any of this meta could have possibly related to his play in this game. But it definitely makes sense, assuming for a second that Ruy is indy, for him to get a legit shiz scumread on a player that can't defend himself and has been taken away from the game until the abductor (he himself) dies...? And then of course he was called on it, looked back and realized there wasn't really much to call out on, and gave up the read. He says that when he looked back and read it again that none, absolutely NONE of his meta speculation out of the PLENTY that he had, matched up. Well, considering the fact that he had to initiate a reread to acquaint himself with the game to begin with, I don't see how that can line up, having SO MUCH against him, and that dwindling down to realizing NOTHING in his argument works for em. It's almost too far fetched and unbelievable.

This bugs the crap out of me looking at it again:




With this logic, he should be almost certain of a JTB town read, which I guess with dumbing my sense of legitimacy down can seem legitimate. And hell even after I attack his line of thought he DEFENDS his line of thought:



Yet...







...he hammers his town read? Now I know what you're thinking, cuz I thought it too. How can a scummy be so belligerently inane and do something like this? Well think about it: It's committal, it looks like something that town would do (especially his little justification portion at the top of the third quote). But it's totally contradictory to his previous defense of JTB. Mafia behaviour? Nah. Indy/abductor behaviour? Very VERY possible.

All in all, do I see mafiaRuy? Not a chance, there's def other avenues to look down. But abductorRuy is looking VERY VERY possible in my eyes. Just look at the N1 abduction choice, Laundry. I don't think there's anybody here that can stray from the thought that Laundry played a very townie game D1, as well as there probably not being anybody who'd say that Laundry can't be a threat. But, looking from the abductor's POV, you have Ryker, EE, and Xonar who were very outspoken D1, moreso than the likes of Laundry, and very likely being that those three would be having protection. An indyRuy KNOWS about how Laundry can be, so it's a very safe thing to go ahead and abduct em and get em out of the way before he can really get any suspicion on you. All in all, I see indy written all over Ruy this game. So please, join me in stockpiling some votes on this kid.
TL;DR.

idgaf.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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more so didn't like some posts you've made like that even if it's not a scum tell, get to that later, working on my reread.
 

Kantrip

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The difference is that this isn't PR trading. There are so many explanations for what could have happened:

Abduction could be an odd-Night ability.
Target could have been protected.
Abductor could have been jailed.
Abductor could have chose the Night Kill target and got out-prioritized.
Abductor could have hit some sort of BP/Target immune to their ability.
Abductor could have chosen not to use his ability.

I don't understand why you would bank on the Abductor having been jailed and risk sacrificing the jailer because of that when we have NO CLUE if that's what happened or not.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Abduction could be an odd-Night ability.
Assuming every night til proven otherwise.

Target could have been protected.
I still doubt this.

Abductor could have been jailed.
95% sure it is this.

Abductor could have chose the Night Kill target and got out-prioritized.
Assuming common NAR, indies go first before mafia.

Abductor could have hit some sort of BP/Target immune to their ability.
Really?

Indies are pretty hard to win with, common problem is balancing them so they have the same chances to win as mafia and town. Adding and anti abduction is a huge way to bone them.

Abductor could have chosen not to use his ability.
There is no gain for him to not use it.
 
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