Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[TheCJBrine]

Project M EX Remix has Geno alongside other characters such as Sans, Louie, Alph, Toad, Toon Zelda etc. (and gave Waluigi a better moveset imo), however it hasn’t even reached its full 1.0 version yet (though it still has early-dev releases) so I’m not sure how much it matters, just it has been worked on for some months or maybe for over a year I think.

Regarding Legacy XP:

Its takedown was suspicious, but didn’t the main dev or at least one of them say it wasn’t because of Nintendo? Of course he could have just wanted to answer while still covering his butt, especially if he didn’t explain why it was taken down, but still...

 

[AceAttorney9000]

So besides Another Metroid 2 Remake and Project M, are there any other instances of Nintendo fan projects getting taken down specifically because they could've potentially clashed with an official Nintendo product?

Its takedown was suspicious, but didn’t the main dev or at least one of them say it wasn’t because of Nintendo? Of course he could have just wanted to answer while still covering his butt, especially if he didn’t explain why it was taken down, but still...

In fairness, I doubt the mod devs would just outright say "We stopped working on our mod with Geno and Waluigi in it because Geno and Waluigi will be Smash Ultimate DLC soon".

 

[Lord Woomy]

Its takedown was suspicious, but didn’t the main dev or at least one of them say it wasn’t because of Nintendo? Of course he could have just wanted to answer while still covering his butt, especially if he didn’t explain why it was taken down, but still...

I think one of the archives got axed by Nintendo immediately after and that was confirmed, so I think it's pretty safe to say Nintendo wanted to scrub Legacy off the face of the Earth

 

[MattX20]

So, thinking things over about the earlier theorycraft for 7...

Corresponding Amiibo Wave: September 25th

Implied release date: September 7th or September 14th

Implied Sakurai Presents presentation: August 31st or September 7th

Nobody has been revealed and released following a Sakurai Presents presentation. There's always been a gap of at least a week. If a character is released at the end of a Sakurai Presents presentation, it's because they were announced before then. Here are the number of days between the DLC characters announcement and release:

Plant- 92 (36 between Joker, 56 until release)
Joker - 132 (63 from February 2019 Direct)
Hero- 49
Banjo- 85 (37 from Hero)
Terry- 63
Byleth- 12 (47 from VGAs)
Min Min - 7 (95 from ARMS announcement, 75 until what would have been E3)

Average: 63

You'll notice that because of "stacked" and delayed announcements, some of the numbers are pretty small or large in comparison. By "stacked" I mean multiple characters announced before one of them is released. Let's see what happens when we focus on the more "realistic" numbers for the sake of consistency:

Adjusted average: 56

So, based on both of these models, there's typically about a two month gap between announcements and releases. Now, supposedly there was supposed to be a big Direct on the 20th so let's see what happens when we plug these two numbers in:

56 days later- September 14th

63 days later- September 21th

Amiibo and characters have only released in the same week once with Terry which means September 14th is the more realistic release window of 7 based on this model.

Still, we shouldn't rule out the possibility of the the first week of September as a potential release date for FP7. There's still a good amount of evidence to potentially hint that

 

[7NATOR]

Personally, if it was for 2 characters and not just one, I'd bet on Geno and Shadow over Geno and Waluigi

Waluigi's Moveset in Legacy XP is shared between mods like Brawl Minus and stuff

While Shadow is In alot of Modpacks, the moveset he has in Legacy Xp is actually unique from the other modpacks. He uses the Flame of his Shoes more and has different types of animations from other Modpacks.

Though Honestly if Legacy XP ws taken down for DLC related stuff, I'd bet it's Only for Geno (and I say this as a Shadow Fan). He has not had a Official 3d Model, and since people know that Geno Mod from Legacy XP, it could be seen as Competetion.

Furthermore, I could see Square wanting Nintendo to takedown that mod anyway. Sega doesn't give a hoot like that, as the Joker Mod that recreates him in Brawl (for Free) is still up and running

 

[TheCJBrine]

In fairness, I doubt the mod devs would just outright say "We stopped working on our mod with Geno and Waluigi in it because Geno and Waluigi will be Smash Ultimate DLC soon".

Of course not, but he could’ve just said “Nintendo didn’t want us to continue” and people would assume “typical Nintendo taking down fan stuff;” though I don’t really know if he could’ve talked about any takedown from them tbh and of course if it was for Geno and/or Waluigi maybe they just forbid him to say anything about it whatsoever.

I think one of the archives got axed by Nintendo immediately after and that was confirmed, so I think it's pretty safe to say Nintendo wanted to scrub Legacy off the face of the Earth

Oh alright then, that sounds promising.

 

[Super10ZX]

Regarding Legacy XP:

Its takedown was suspicious, but didn’t the main dev or at least one of them say it wasn’t because of Nintendo? Of course he could have just wanted to answer while still covering his butt, especially if he didn’t explain why it was taken down, but still...

Looked into this as well cause I specifically remember this thing being talked about before, and uncovered this. In replies and such, David seems to deny Nintendo took action, yet many of the people replying to him give reasons as to why something seems fishy right to him, and a lot of his responses seems rather vague which would be odd if Nintendo seriously wasn’t involved. He even says in the initial Tweet a lawyer told him it was the best course of action to take it down, so it feels off. Maybe Nintendo didn’t directly go all out on them, but spooked them enough to take it down.

And obviously if they did take it down for reasons like Geno being in Smash, Nintendo wouldn’t tell these people that info. Just say things like “You breached on our IP” or something.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Looked into this as well cause I specifically remember this thing being talked about before, and uncovered this. In replies and such, David seems to deny Nintendo took action, yet many of the people replying to him give reasons as to why something seems fishy right to him, and a lot of his responses seems rather vague which would be odd if Nintendo seriously wasn’t involved. He even says in the initial Tweet a lawyer told him it was the best course of action to take it down, so it feels off. Maybe Nintendo didn’t directly go all out on them, but spooked them enough to take it down.

And obviously if they did take it down for reasons like Geno being in Smash, Nintendo wouldn’t tell these people that info. Just say things like “You breached on our IP” or something.

This sounds very promising.

Why listen to a lawyer if nothing has happened to you? The worst Nintendo seems to do is send you something like a C&D without any big legal repercussions if you just do what they want, and if he was just getting worried he would simply take it down himself. Even in that twitter thread’s replies, there are discord messages of his where he’s denying that lawyer’s advice and was like “lol no I put a lot of work into it,” so the sudden shift is strange, like he wasn’t wanting to comply with Nintendo until he got really worried about it/realized he couldn’t win or something...

So, this combined with the archive thing, yeah, this feels like definite BIG evidence in Geno’s and Waluigi’s favor if they took it down for this reason.

 

[JarBear]

I work in the legal field, from what I’ve read that’s very much “can’t talk about it” responses for legal/NDA/etc reasons.

You have to be very choosy what you say and don’t say. If that wasn’t the case, you’d be very open about things. Or even if it was some kind of agreement between two parties, the details cannot be spoken or hinted at or we will pursue or whatnot.

 

[Vector Victor]

I work in the legal field, from what I’ve read that’s very much “can’t talk about it” responses for legal/NDA/etc reasons.

you have to be very choosy what you say and don’t say. If that wasn’t the case, you’d be very open about things.

This whole legal issue of Nintendo is merely just an extended trailer for Phoenix Wright's addition to the Fighter's Pass. Nintendo is dedicated to Smash.

 

[JarBear]

This whole legal issue of Nintendo is merely just an extended trailer for Phoenix Wright's addition to the Fighter's Pass. Nintendo is dedicated to Smash.

PHOENIX WRIGHT OBJECTS TO SMASH!

 

[AugustusB]

This whole legal issue of Nintendo is merely just an extended trailer for Phoenix Wright's addition to the Fighter's Pass. Nintendo is dedicated to Smash.

The idea of them airing an actual court hearing, prosecuting the person who leaked Nintendos secrets to be hit with an "OBJECTION!!" Would be incredible.

 

[Noipoi]

Ah yes, scouring the depths of legal jargon just to know if a fictional puppet from one game released 20 years ago will be able to punch Pikachu and shoot Donkey Kong in the near future.

Smash Speculation.

 

[pinshadow]

I don't think any of the (reliable) insiders got anything wrong about the last Direct, at least in terms of leaks not speculation. But yes, I'd say Smash news in the next few weeks is possible outside of a Direct, although September with a Direct is more likely.

By the way, this is the most popular theory regarding the Geno/Waluigi evidence :
https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/1d_4uuic2xo8bZhwzJkmZtQfWFent4x8erWdd2KPqrNM/edit

I've pretty much always assumed that whatever Papa supposedly got told had to do with Legacy XP. It's the only real logical explanation for something that would only apply to those two characters specifically without being an outright confirmation of either of them. That being said, it's still not proof of anything, and at this point its hearsay regardless, just another thing to add to the ever growing list of strange coincidences surrounding the puppet.

 

[Plank08]

Is this thread gonna get to 4000 by the time geno is in.

 

[Blankiturayman]

Is this thread gonna get to 4000 by the time geno is in.

I would hope we don't have to wait that long... but you never know.

 

[AceAttorney9000]

Is this thread gonna get to 4000 by the time geno is in.

I would hope we don't have to wait that long... but you never know.

Plot twist: We'll end up hitting 4000 pages by the time Geno gets in... because when a Sakurai Presents video gets announced in August, everyone here will start posting at the speed of a Geno Whirl.

 

[7NATOR]

Geno Whirl doing 9999 Damage in Smash would be a very unique move. Hope they keep the damage

 

[Droodle]

On one hand, Legacy XP's takedown was definitely suspicious, and we aren't getting the full explanation from the team (Nintendo issuing the takedown is the common guess, but the team specifically says that it was their choice and they weren't contacted by Nintendo + generic vague statement about contacting lawyers.)

On the other hand, Nintendo has never been a fan of fan mods/content. That's one of their biggest issues, whereas someone like SEGA promotes fan content, Nintendo tends to take it down. Sometimes immediately, sometimes out of no where and for no reason.

I'm pretty sure Project NX was taken down in March-ish too, right around the time that Legacy XP got nuked. Now granted Project NX is for Ultimate, while the other is for Brawl; but it's still possible they just had those 2 on their radars and took them down for no reason. I mean if Legacy XP is hinting at Geno/Waluigi getting into Smash, what is Project NX? Are we getting wavedashing in the future? On the other hand, unlike the Legacy XP devs; the NX dev has been pretty open about how much they hate Nintendo for C&Ding them. And while Legacy XP was public, apparently NX was only meant for private purposes.

My thoughts are that it's probably best to not focus on the Legacy XP stuff. Like PapaGenos said, it could mean that Waluigi/Geno is a fighter, Mii Costume, or just nothing at all for some reason. If Geno/Waluigi get in, they're in. It'll be impossible to tell if the Legacy XP takedowns were actually important or not, unless some more info comes out about it, so why worry about it? Assuming Papagenos information hints at Legacy XP in the first place.

 

[QQS]

It says Artist: “MB” so credits to that person!

GENO AWAKENS!

 

[Powerman293]

Just watched Papa Geno's new video. "Game Trial theory" is a joke IMO. It's such an obvious telegraphed thing and extremely obvious shilling that Nintendo would be less embarrassed to put a "Please buy X game" message into Smash itself.

Also that the pandemic has screwed up the timing on all this stuff, so it probably isn't a hint as to the next characters.

And the idea of waiting until September for the next character is troubling....

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Hell, even Albert Einstein, aka the smartest man ever, was autistic. Honestly, it always seems like people with autism are usually the smart ones.

I've heard the creator of Pokemon Satoshi Tajiri is Autistic. Though I haven't found a source that 100% confirms this.

 

[MattOnwheels]

I haven't mentioned it in a video and likely won't because I can't elaborate on it at all, I hate covering something I can't explain and since it isn't even a full character leak I don't think covering it in a video would sway speculation much one way or the other. It's just some evidence thats in favor of these two characters (Geno and Waluigi). Evidence does not always lead to anything of course and thats all it is "evidence" not a character leak at all.

Basically I had a phone call conversation with someone, they wanted it to be a phone call because they did not want any kind of "paper trail" for what they had to tell me. I was told something that makes me (and the person who told me it) believe Geno and Waluigi are more likely to actually get into smash than I thought before (this phone call happened about a week or so before Min Min was revealed). The person who I spoke to is fully verified to definitely be someone who is in a position to get this information and the information is coming from about as inside Nintendo as you can get. I have no doubt at all that the information is true 100%. However, I can't say more than this and never will be able to (which is another reason why I dont want to mention it in a video, I wont ever be able to elaborate further) as it could have very bad consequences for the person who told me. So while the evidence/information is definitely true, it is JUST evidence/information pointing to these two characters and just like publicly known evidence for a character that doesn't always lead to anything.

So basically I know some evidence toward Geno or Waluigi (either one or possibly both, and no not "mario character" or something, legitimately these two are the only characters it makes sense for) that makes me more confident they could actually show up in this fighters pass. But I can't explain the evidence at all and it is JUST evidence, neither character happening at all is completely possible still (though admittedly this was good evidence in their favor for sure imo). I'd say given what the evidence is it would suggest as a playable fighter, but again the evidence could lead to nothing or even a Mii Costume etc... its just evidence for Geno or/and Waluigi that could point to them possibly happening in some way for this fighters pass.

I have mentioned all this to my discord and I have seen some of them guessing on the right track close to what it is that I heard, so enough info is out there about this. I know someone made a collection of what ive said about it on discord, and again some people have guessed essentially what it was about already anyway.

I can't confirm or deny any guesses and never will be able to explain this one, so mentioning it in a video just seems pointless. I somewhat hate having this sort of info as its just a bunch of hearsay I cant openly explain but there ya go make of it what you want.

Thanks for the info, Papa 'G! I appreciate you. You used me in your Vid once and it was the coolest thing!

A Minor question though (If you can't answer, it's okay):

Do you still think the info you heard holds up by now? It's been a while now since that conversation, so if the evidence WAS potentially enough to confirm either of them, is it still in play? I ask this because you mentioned in your latest video that we could be slowly moving away from "Mario Character" plausibility to Pokemon in stead, and while you did say what you heard was more than that, i'd be interested to know what the timeline would be in order for what you learned in the call to mean what we're all hoping. Would you say that if Geno or Waluigi aren't Fighter #77, there's a chance it didn't mean anything? Or is this something that could be in play till the end of the pass?

 

[HudU]

Sorry ive been a bit inactive, Im ending off my seasonal job this week so ill have a bit more time to go online.

Yeah, this makes a lot of sense. One counterargument I could propose against the whole "why didn't they take it down for Ridley" counterpoint is that maybe they were pressured by someone else, with that someone being SquareEnix with regards to Geno. We know that SquareEnix is very weird when it comes to their content in Smash. Some examples include:

• Their Mii Costumes always coming in their own, separate waves alongside their own characters. No other company, not even Nintendo themselves, have ever had this happen.
• Each character of theirs has only come with two tracks, with each alt for Hero being considered a different character and thus coming with two tracks each. No other series with a fighter in Smash has that few music tracks.

As such, it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to assume that maybe SquareEnix saw Legacy XP as a threat to Geno's coming to Smash, and thus pressured Nintendo to take action where they otherwise wouldn't have.

Also, while not strictly evidence, but it's been theorized that the reason the Geno and Chocobo Mii Costumes didn't return alongside Hero was because they A) were only allowed to highlight Enix stuff and B) wanted to advertise Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age: Definitive Edition, and as such didn't want to take attention away from it. If that's the case, then it would make sense for SquareEnix to want it taken down.

I hope this has a bit of backing to it, Papa in the messages made it sound like it was super credible and could be huge evidence. Im not getting my hopes too high though.

 

[millsfan]

Still hoping that legacy take down means Nintendo realizes what a Shadow moveset can look like.... I like Znx’s Shadow moveset a Little more though.. that down b teleport counter is epic. Here’s the trailer for Super smash flash mod of shadow
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5jOLqpY3Dj4

I’m so curious if Geno is fighter 77. I wish e3 happened so we could have potentially gotten 2 reveals :/

 

[CopperKoopa]

So here's a thought I've been having. If Geno gets into Smash, will he make more appearances in the future? There's a sort of precedent that Smash can be a king maker. I would love to see all of the unique characters from that game make cameos in other Mario games, and of course both Geno and Mallow (and Boshi, and Booster, and Valentina...) would be really awesome playable characters in a future Mario Kart or something. They certainly would fill an niche.

My take is that Smash would be a one time deal. Even if Square doesn't do anything with the rights, they know they will always have a free revenue stream anytime Nintendo wants access. I like many others hope this was an opportunity for Nintendo to buy the rights in full, but that's not going to happen and Square would never allow it.

 

[Griselda]

So here's a thought I've been having. If Geno gets into Smash, will he make more appearances in the future? There's a sort of precedent that Smash can be a king maker. I would love to see all of the unique characters from that game make cameos in other Mario games, and of course both Geno and Mallow (and Boshi, and Booster, and Valentina...) would be really awesome playable characters in a future Mario Kart or something. They certainly would fill an niche.

My take is that Smash would be a one time deal. Even if Square doesn't do anything with the rights, they know they will always have a free revenue stream anytime Nintendo wants access. I like many others hope this was an opportunity for Nintendo to buy the rights in full, but that's not going to happen and Square would never allow it.

I think it's more likely the case that Nintendo just doesn't see any point in buying the rights from them, since they've had little to no interest in using the characters, either.

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Us when Geno finally get's announced:

 

[Fatmanonice]

On the last episode of Theorycraft Z:

-Pretty safely determined that 7 will be an early to mid September release.

-If was pointed out that the "new" tag disappears on the main site 2-3 weeks on average before a new character reveal with a month and two days being the longest timespan.

So, we have a decent amount to play with to strongly consider that 7 will be an August announcement; why?

-Several people have noted that "the last stop" before the General Direct is likely to be a Mini and there's a lot of signs pointing to August 3rd.

-Directs always have Smash reveals or announcements. This has been the case since March 2018.

-"Sakurai Presents" and Directs have never been in the same month. This means that if 7 is a September release, 7 has to be announced in August unless there's no Direct and 7 is another "shadowdrop" like Byleth and Min-Min.

-No matter the circumstances, there is always at least a week between a character's announcement and their release. If 7 is a shadowdrop, we determined yesterday that 7 would likely be announced on the 7th and released on the 14th.

Now we just need to map out when in August would be the most likely.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_Direct

Looking at the history of Nintendo Directs, it's pretty clear cut how they handle August. August presentations have always been at the beginning of the month or near the end, usually the last week. Why? I'm 95% sure this is because of Obon. Quick recap: HUGE Japanese holiday that's not only super significant culturally but a big chunk of the population takes time off during it. This said, we're basically left with three options:

-A General Direct during the Week of August 3rd.

-A General during the week of August 24th.

-Literally August 31st.

This said, we're either as little as a week away or as much as a month. Irksome but not terrible all in all.

 

[MattX20]

On the last episode of Theorycraft Z:

-Pretty safely determined that 7 will be an early to mid September release.

-If was pointed out that the "new" tag disappears on the main site 2-3 weeks on average before a new character reveal with a month and two days being the longest timespan.

So, we have a decent amount to play with to strongly consider that 7 will be an August announcement; why?

-Several people have noted that "the last stop" before the General Direct is likely to be a Mini and there's a lot of signs pointing to August 3rd.

-Directs always have Smash reveals or announcements. This has been the case since March 2018.

-"Sakurai Presents" and Directs have never been in the same month. This means that if 7 is a September release, 7 has to be announced in August unless there's no Direct and 7 is another "shadowdrop" like Byleth and Min-Min.

-No matter the circumstances, there is always at least a week between a character's announcement and their release. If 7 is a shadowdrop, we determined yesterday that 7 would likely be announced on the 7th and released on the 14th.

Now we just need to map out when in August would be the most likely.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_Direct

Looking at the history of Nintendo Directs, it's pretty clear cut how they handle August. August presentations have always been at the beginning of the month or near the end, usually the last week. Why? I'm 95% sure this is because of Obon. Quick recap: HUGE Japanese holiday that's not only super significant culturally but a big chunk of the population takes time off during it. This said, we're basically left with three options:

-A General Direct during the Week of August 3rd.

-A General during the week of August 24th.

-Literally August 31st.

This said, we're either as little as a week away or as much as a month. Irksome but not terrible all in all.

Yep, and that's why I'm leaning towards the end of August for the Sakurai Presents video if there's nothing but a partner showcase in the next week or two

 

[Theguy123]

I don't really think that interview affects Geno's chances in anyway. I think this interview may hurt the chances of other Mario RPG OC's like Fawful and Goombella. As for Geno, however, the team behind the newer Paper Mario games really have no say on Geno getting in since ultimately, its up for Square to decide.

Yeah I’d agree. Geno Is more cannon to the mario and Luigi series as he was literally shown in superstar saga and we know alpha dream had creativity and No restrictions in what they did so Geno isn’t effected. I’d say if he was made and was cannon to the paper mario series then it would be harder and less likely but thankfully he’s not.

 

[*Verrix*]

I think it's more likely the case that Nintendo just doesn't see any point in buying the rights from them, since they've had little to no interest in using the characters, either.

This sadly. They would rather have generic Toad 1 through 100 with different hats than the amazing cast of characters in SMRPG. Toads with rings on their head instead of dots.... BLASPHEMY!

 

[okamifire]

On the last episode of Theorycraft Z:

-Pretty safely determined that 7 will be an early to mid September release.

-If was pointed out that the "new" tag disappears on the main site 2-3 weeks on average before a new character reveal with a month and two days being the longest timespan.

So, we have a decent amount to play with to strongly consider that 7 will be an August announcement; why?

-Several people have noted that "the last stop" before the General Direct is likely to be a Mini and there's a lot of signs pointing to August 3rd.

-Directs always have Smash reveals or announcements. This has been the case since March 2018.

-"Sakurai Presents" and Directs have never been in the same month. This means that if 7 is a September release, 7 has to be announced in August unless there's no Direct and 7 is another "shadowdrop" like Byleth and Min-Min.

-No matter the circumstances, there is always at least a week between a character's announcement and their release. If 7 is a shadowdrop, we determined yesterday that 7 would likely be announced on the 7th and released on the 14th.

Now we just need to map out when in August would be the most likely.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_Direct

Looking at the history of Nintendo Directs, it's pretty clear cut how they handle August. August presentations have always been at the beginning of the month or near the end, usually the last week. Why? I'm 95% sure this is because of Obon. Quick recap: HUGE Japanese holiday that's not only super significant culturally but a big chunk of the population takes time off during it. This said, we're basically left with three options:

-A General Direct during the Week of August 3rd.

-A General during the week of August 24th.

-Literally August 31st.

This said, we're either as little as a week away or as much as a month. Irksome but not terrible all in all.

While I agree that the dates and things line up and make sense logically, 2020 has been anything but logical for Nintendo it seems. Don't get me wrong, I'm thinking some August news and a September FP7 is likely as well, but I think some of the things like ""Sakurai Presents" and Directs have never been in the same month. " may simply be coincidence given there isn't a huge history of them. I do think it's worth putting stock in the New Tab and the primary directs having Smash news though. Hopefully we have good news soon!

 

[Firox]

Geno Whirl doing 9999 Damage in Smash would be a very unique move. Hope they keep the damage

Could you imagine a projectile doing 999% if you time an input correctly? It would have to instantly kill its target if they were already over 100% or something.

 

[okamifire]

Could you imagine a projectile doing 999% if you time an input correctly? It would have to instantly kill its target if they were already over 100% or something.

Edit: I just realized you wrote basically the same thing, hahaha. Wow, my bad.

I think that would be crazy, but I could possibly see it functioning like a Hero Whack / Thwack if you time it right and they're over 100% or something being an instakill. It'd be really funny to see it 999% though, haha. Maybe if the opponent already has over 100% or 150% or something then it jacks it up to 999%, but doing 0% > 999% would be too OP. XD

 

[Fatmanonice]

Yep, and that's why I'm leaning towards the end of August for the Sakurai Presents video if there's nothing but a partner showcase in the next week or two

But that's the thing: there's never been a Sakurai Presents and a Direct in the same month. One would have to be in August and the other in September. Like I said in my last post, it's heavily assumed that 7 wouldn't be a shadowdrop but announced in a Direct. Based on this, the gap between announcements and releases when it comes to Directs is much wider than shadow drops. Shadowdrops average about a week while Direct reveals to releases averages about a month and a half to two months. Here's my data from yesterday:

Plant- 92 (36 between Joker, 56 until release)
Joker - 132 (63 from February 2019 Direct)
Hero- 49
Banjo- 85 (37 from Hero)
Terry- 63
Byleth- 12 (47 from VGAs)
Min Min - 7 (95 from ARMS announcement, 75 until what would have been E3)

The average is about 56 if you add total days between major presentations and divide by 7. Byleth and Min-Min, however, were shadowdrops so let's see what happens if we only count the characters announced in Directs or major presentations:

Our average only drops a slight amount to 54.

Continuing this train of thought, let's look at characters that have been announced one month and released the very next or bumped into another character announcement/release:

Plant: 36
Hero: 49
Banjo: 37

Our average here is about 41 days. Now, our current theorycraft is that if 7's "Sakurai Presents" presentation is on September 7th, then their release will likely be the week of September 14th. With this in mind, if we subtract 41 days from September 14th, we actually wind up with August 4th. Fun stuff.

 

[Firox]

Edit: I just realized you wrote basically the same thing, hahaha. Wow, my bad.

I think that would be crazy, but I could possibly see it functioning like a Hero Whack / Thwack if you time it right and they're over 100% or something being an instakill. It'd be really funny to see it 999% though, haha. Maybe if the opponent already has over 100% or 150% or something then it jacks it up to 999%, but doing 0% > 999% would be too OP. XD

Agreed. Though, it wouldn't be satisfying enough to simply have people vanish like Whack/Thwack does. I'd want them to fly off at ludicrous speed and burst off the top of the screen for comedic effect. This of course would instantly trigger the crowd to cheer for Geno.

 

[Griselda]

Could you imagine a projectile doing 999% if you time an input correctly? It would have to instantly kill its target if they were already over 100% or something.

I want to fight a lv. 9 Geno with the highest attack spirit equipped : a frighteningly fast, unapproachable god who reads your moves the instant you make them and can KO even the heaviest fighter with a breath. One that you'd constantly be dodging projectiles from while also trying to fight back from a distance yourself.

"We dreamed of bringing ♡♪!? back into this world. And we succeeded."

 

[MattX20]

But that's the thing: there's never been a Sakurai Presents and a Direct in the same month. One would have to be in August and the other in September. Like I said in my last post, it's heavily assumed that 7 wouldn't be a shadowdrop but announced in a Direct. Based on this, the gap between announcements and releases when it comes to Directs is much wider than shadow drops. Shadowdrops average about a week while Direct reveals to releases averages about a month and a half to two months. Here's my data from yesterday:

Plant- 92 (36 between Joker, 56 until release)
Joker - 132 (63 from February 2019 Direct)
Hero- 49
Banjo- 85 (37 from Hero)
Terry- 63
Byleth- 12 (47 from VGAs)
Min Min - 7 (95 from ARMS announcement, 75 until what would have been E3)

The average is about 56 if you add total days between major presentations and divide by 7. Byleth and Min-Min, however, were shadowdrops so let's see what happens if we only count the characters announced in Directs or major presentations:

Our average only drops a slight amount to 54.

Continuing this train of thought, let's look at characters that have been announced one month and released the very next or bumped into another character announcement/release:

Plant: 36
Hero: 49
Banjo: 37

Our average here is about 41 days. Now, our current theorycraft is that if 7's "Sakurai Presents" presentation is on September 7th, then their release will likely be the week of September 14th. With this in mind, if we subtract 41 days from September 14th, we actually wind up with August 4th. Fun stuff.

August 4th? Next Tuesday? Interesting

 

[Fatmanonice]

While I agree that the dates and things line up and make sense logically, 2020 has been anything but logical for Nintendo it seems. Don't get me wrong, I'm thinking some August news and a September FP7 is likely as well, but I think some of the things like ""Sakurai Presents" and Directs have never been in the same month. " may simply be coincidence given there isn't a huge history of them. I do think it's worth putting stock in the New Tab and the primary directs having Smash news though. Hopefully we have good news soon!

That's why it's a predictive model and not absolute. Predictive models work with what had already happened to try to predict what can happen if certain factors don't deviate too strongly.