Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[CannonStreak]

.....Please stay innocent.

No really, what does the "subway" in Subway Dragon mean?

I did this predictive model post before Min Min was announced and it was actually fairly accurate. I need to update the numbers later but to using the same averages determined in this earlier model it suggests the following dates as being important for 7:

Amiibo Wave average days between: 80, suggests August 31st (coincidentally a Monday)

Gaps between releases average: 72, suggests September 9th (this is a Wednesday on the first full week of September)

Gaps between announcements average: 95, suggests September 25th (this is Joker and Hero's Amiibo release date)

There's supposed to be Amiibos coming on the 18th and 25th. Using the 11 day average to stay within the month, we get September 7th and September 14th respectively. Both are coincidentally Mondays.

So... Going off this without updating the model, it suggests:

-7's respective Amiibo wave will release on the 25th (confirmed)

-7 will be released on or near the 7th or 14th based on which Amiibo wave it corresponds to. Interestingly enough, character releases are typically the first full week of the month or the last week of the month, suggesting the 7th more based on past precedent.

-7's announcement in late August or early September.

... Why do I suddenly feel betrayed by math?

So we're getting Amiibos in August, you're saying?

EDIT: Never mind, I misread.

 

[Deleted member]

Subway Dragon? Forgive me, but what does that even mean?

You don't wanna know. It's best that way.

 

[CannonStreak]

You don't wanna know. It's best that way.

I do. Now tell me, what does it mean? DM me if you have to.

 

[T2by4]

I do. Now tell me, what does it mean? DM me if you have to.

Yeah and I think its a pretty stupid rivalry. I am in the Crash fandom and I would say the Crash fandom and the Spyro fandom are one in the same pretty much. The fact that their is rivalry between these two for Smash is crazy imo. Besides, Crash is easily the more likelier between the two, imo

Pretty much my thoughts, plus he's massively popular in japan.

 

[Deleted member]

View attachment 280525

Pretty much my thoughts, plus he's massively popular in japan.

Yeah, obviously you have to have Crash before Spyro. I wouldn't mind Spyro at all, though.

 

[Lord Woomy]

You don't wanna know. It's best that way.

As someone who just Googled it:

Don't

 

[I_DON'T_KNOW_YOU!]

Has this been shared before?

 

[TheBeastHimself]

I don't understand the reasoning behind Nintendo's lack of original Mario characters. So starting with Paper Mario Sticker Star, there cannot be any original characters aside from generic Toads and enemies. Does this rule extend to the entire Mario universe, Mario RPGs, or just Paper Mario?

Also, why is that rule even a thing? I don't know if Nintendo is stupid or something, but one of the biggest reasons their early Mario RPGs were so successful are because of the original characters that add something new to the Mario universe. The worlds of future Paper Mario games are going to look cool but like TOK, they will be chock full of boring and generic looking characters. That's a shame.

An incredibly dumb rule like this has to have a reasonable justification. I really do love Nintendo, but this is very dumb.

 

[Lord Woomy]

>We may actually be waiting our asses until September

 

[Fatmanonice]

>have to wait another month

bros...
View attachment 280524

Well, on the upside:

-Further cements that 7 is a September release.

-Heavily suggests that 7 will be released fairly early in September, possibly even as early September 7th (Seven Theory lives! )

-All but guarantees that 7 will be an August announcement.

 

[Enigma735]

I don't understand the reasoning behind Nintendo's lack of original Mario characters. So starting with Paper Mario Sticker Star, there cannot be any original characters aside from generic Toads and enemies. Does this rule extend to the entire Mario universe, Mario RPGs, or just Paper Mario?

Also, why is that rule even a thing? I don't know if Nintendo is stupid or something, but one of the biggest reasons their early Mario RPGs were so successful are because of the original characters that add something new to the Mario universe. The worlds of future Paper Mario games are going to look cool but like TOK, they will be chock full of boring and generic looking characters. That's a shame.

An incredibly dumb rule like this has to have a reasonable justification. I really do love Nintendo, but this is very dumb.

I think its just a Paper Mario thing. Super Mario Odyssey had tons of unique NPC's that basically lived within each world so it proves that Miyamoto isn't against making brand new characters, but he just doesn't want too for Paper Mario for some reason. Its kinda stupid since RPG's are known for unique and interesting characters, especially Mario's older RPG's, but yet somehow a 3D platformer is deemed more logical for original characters then RPG's in Miyamoto's eyes.

I love Miyamoto and all, but god DANG he needs to lighten up a bit

 

[Deleted member]

I don't understand the reasoning behind Nintendo's lack of original Mario characters. So starting with Paper Mario Sticker Star, there cannot be any original characters aside from generic Toads and enemies. Does this rule extend to the entire Mario universe, Mario RPGs, or just Paper Mario?

Also, why is that rule even a thing? I don't know if Nintendo is stupid or something, but one of the biggest reasons their early Mario RPGs were so successful are because of the original characters that add something new to the Mario universe. The worlds of future Paper Mario games are going to look cool but like TOK, they will be chock full of boring and generic looking characters. That's a shame.

An incredibly dumb rule like this has to have a reasonable justification. I really do love Nintendo, but this is very dumb.

Mario Odyssey got some original character species like the people in Tosterna and Shivaria, and Mario and Luigi still got unique characters like Dreambert and Antasma and brought back Bowser's elite trio in Dream Team after being introduced in BiS (Sargent Guy, Private Goomp, Corporal Paraplonk) so it's probably just a Paper Mario thing.

 

[MattX20]

Well, on the upside:

-Further cements that 7 is a September release.

-Heavily suggests that 7 will be released fairly early in September, possibly even as early September 7th (Seven Theory lives! )

-All but guarantees that 7 will be an August announcement.

The question at this point then becomes when in August if this model is accurate. My guess would be between either the 14th to no later than the 28th

 

[Vector Victor]

Ok, I don’t usually talk about my connections publicly but I feel like this needs to be said since there does seem to be confusion in both our speculation spaces and insider circles.

There are a LOT of corporate shakeups from across nearly all of the different offices around the world happening at Nintendo. The biggest reason is there is a major investigation going on with the basis of Corporate Espionage due to the leaking of all this classified content that has appeared on the web as of late. They know who the guy is that has been releasing it and has already filed a lawsuit against him but it isn’t stopping there because it is theorized by people inside the company that it was an employee who helped or allowed someone to do this.

Everyone from top to bottom is being investigated because of this. So, even though all this stuff coming out on older games is cool, it’s also effecting Nintendo and it’s releases.

So yeah, there’s that. Nintendo news is being pushed back constantly as more and more people are getting investigated.

This does fill in several pieces of the Nintendo 'Wait, we need to TELL our consumers we have things?' Situation puzzle. Once a major legal aspect is involved, things can grid to a halt. Although, the fact that they want to focus on stopping this massive content leak while putting their game news on hold means that this leak must have more huge or damaging content than we see right now, maybe even information on unreleased projects.

 

[CannonStreak]

The question at this point then becomes when in August if this model is accurate. My guess would be between either the 14th to no later than the 28th

Why the 14th and the 28th? Aren't those Fridays?

 

[Gribbo]

As someone who just Googled it:

Don't

Draw your last pathetic card, Yugi.

 

[MattX20]

Why the 14th and the 28th? Aren't those Fridays?

Oh, that's right, I meant the 13th and the 27th.

 

[7NATOR]

I Missed the Legacy Xp talk it seems, but all I have to say is that

Project M doesn't have Waluigi (You have to separately mod him in)

But Brawl Minus does, and he's the Only Character in that Mod that's not Playable in Ultimate

 

[Let Geno Smash]

Well, on the upside:

-Further cements that 7 is a September release.

-Heavily suggests that 7 will be released fairly early in September, possibly even as early September 7th (Seven Theory lives! )

-All but guarantees that 7 will be an August announcement.

So, now is very likely to get CP7 revealed in August, my birthday is August 19th (Which is a Wednesday). BROS could my day be Geno's day????. Even I expect in the 1st half of the month

 

[MattX20]

So, now is very likely to get CP7 revealed in August, my birthday is August 19th (Which is a Wednesday). BROS could my day be Geno's day????. Even I expect in the 1st half of the month

Given how we've had past precedent with Byleth proving we can wait up to two weeks in advance for a fighter release, it's certainly plausible

 

[Noipoi]

Geno better hurry his ass up.

I need an update so I can get the Trials of Mana spirits

 

[MattX20]

There's a decent chance we might get one more Square based spirit event sometime in August before the FP7 reveal/Sakurai Presents video.

 

[TX-55]

This. I've been saying for quite some time that if this Legacy XP takedown were to be for Waluigi, then why didn't they take down the countless other mods that Waluigi is featured in? That is why I do believe this Legacy XP takedown would most likely be for Geno, since he is really the only other character that has a good chance, as well as really being the only mod where we get a true playable Geno.


Their has been a rivalry between Crash and Spyro that I have seen as of late.

You're both forgetting that Legacy XP was active, unlike the other smash mods that were discontinued/discarded.
Legacy XP was receiving new updates.

And that could potentially make it a direct competitor to the official Smash Bros.

 

[Enigma735]

You're both forgetting that Legacy XP was active, unlike the other smash mods that were discontinued/discarded.
Legacy XP was receiving new updates.

And that could potentially make it a direct competitor to the official Smash Bros.

Ehhhhhhh I'm gonna have to disagree with that one. I would argue tons of mods are more popular then Legacy. Project + and Project M are vastly bigger then Legacy and in Project +'s case, is getting new updates in the near future. The fact that Nintendo took down a much more smaller project then one that is starting to become Project M levels of big is pretty eye-opening. Hell, I would even argue Brawl Minus is a more popular mod of Brawl then Legacy XP these days, and that one is getting consistent updates. Again, kind of strange Nintendo left all those mods up but yet for some reason took down Legacy XP. Its just kinda odd

 

[Super10ZX]

You're both forgetting that Legacy XP was active, unlike the other smash mods that were discontinued/discarded.
Legacy XP was receiving new updates.

And that could potentially make it a direct competitor to the official Smash Bros.

Just for clarification, when was the last update Legacy XP received before it’s takedown?

 

[AdamBel731]

Well, on the upside:

-Further cements that 7 is a September release.

-Heavily suggests that 7 will be released fairly early in September, possibly even as early September 7th (Seven Theory lives! )

-All but guarantees that 7 will be an August announcement.

That is unless it is like Byleth and the character is announced the same day as their showcase and their release date is like a week from then

...

God I don't want to wait until September...

 

[Fenriraga]

Just for clarification, when was the last update Legacy XP received before it’s takedown?

The last main build added Shadow, Mage Ganon and a few others. Geno had been in earlier builds.

 

[JoscarGamma]

Was Legacy XP the only smash mod to have Geno?

 

[MattX20]

Was Legacy XP the only smash mod to have Geno?

Yes

 

[TX-55]

Ehhhhhhh I'm gonna have to disagree with that one. I would argue tons of mods are more popular then Legacy. Project + and Project M are vastly bigger then Legacy and in Project +'s case, is getting new updates in the near future. The fact that Nintendo took down a much more smaller project then one that is starting to become Project M levels of big is pretty eye-opening. Hell, I would even argue Brawl Minus is a more popular mod of Brawl then Legacy XP these days, and that one is getting consistent updates. Again, kind of strange Nintendo left all those mods up but yet for some reason took down Legacy XP. Its just kinda odd

Legacy XP was never a small project.
https://youtu.be/9FPBBx4XRwk
Having characters like Ridley, Geno, Waluigi, and Shadow, with presumably more down the line isn't something that can be easily dismissed as small.

 

[TTF]

I see that Geno is trending on Twitter again!
Though clicking on it, people are confused whether it's about the character, the football quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks, or the baseball player for the Cincinnati Reds.

 

[Izanagi97]

Well at least now we have a reason for why ****'s been moving so slowly

 

[Enigma735]

Legacy XP was never a small project.
https://youtu.be/9FPBBx4XRwk
Having characters like Ridley, Geno, Waluigi, and Shadow, with presumably more down the line isn't something that can be easily dismissed as small.

By small project, I didn't mean not much content. I guess lesser popularity is the best word here. I remember back in the day, Legacy XP was fairly popular, but as of recently, I feel their has been a massive dip in popularity and I never heard much people talk about it until this takedown. I'm not trying to say Legacy XP ISN'T popular, but I don't think its anywhere near the popularity of Project M\+.

Also, given the fact that this mod has been around since 2013 is honestly the most suspicious part about this takedown. Legacy XP has been a thing for 7 years, and just now Nintendo took it down. Its a little strange Nintendo hasn't acknowledged this mod in that long and just NOW deciding to take it down. That is honestly, imo, the strangest thing about these takedowns.

 

[Lord Woomy]

Also, given the fact that this mod has been around since 2013 is honestly the most suspicious part about this takedown. Legacy XP has been a thing for 7 years, and just now Nintendo took it down. Its a little strange Nintendo hasn't acknowledged this mod in that long as just NOW deciding to take it down. That is honestly the big thing, imo, the strangest thing about these takedowns.

PM also stayed up for years before (presumably) being taken down by Nintendo in late 2015, the same year a certain messy haired Fire Emblem Boy and Psychic Purple Cat were added as DLC in Smash 4 thinking emote

 

[Super10ZX]

Decided to look into Legacy XP a bit myself. It is true that the last major update happened in May 2018. But there was smaller more balance related updates in March 2019 and January 2020. So even though it seems development kinda slowed down in the last couple years of its life, it was still receiving attention from the people behind it.

Regardless on if the mods last update was old or new, that doesn’t really change the fact that it’s interesting Nintendo supposedly went after it now, when it was fine existing for many years. Like the conclusion I think most of us came to before, this could either mean nothing and Nintendo took it down cause they could (like with Pokémon Uranium), or maybe because something in the mod was competing with something Nintendo is currently working on (like with Another Metroid 2 Remake). There’s no way to know either way right now, so all we can do is really speculate.

 

[Enigma735]

PM also stayed up for years before (presumably) being taken down by Nintendo in late 2015, the same year a certain messy haired Fire Emblem Boy and Psychic Purple Cat were added as DLC in Smash 4 thinking emote

Oh yeah I completely forgot about that. Pretty interesting that this happened and it may give credibility to these takedowns meaning something. Maybe this could be something Polarthief can add to The ListTM.

 

[JarBear]

So the Legacy XP topic is back. This is a fascinating theory which has some goodness coming from it. Not matter how you spin the Legacy XP "deletion," It is suspicious. So let's run with this.

Spoiler: Legacy XP Rational Theory

Nintendo takes down Legacy XP due to its "competition"to Ultimate of their newly added characters after Brawl:

Geno
Ridley
Waluigi
Young Link (From Melee, not "new," However, it also goes with the rational with Ridley in a bit )
Mage Ganondorf* (just an alternate form of Ganondorf, no really new)
Lucina (added in Smash 4)
Metal Sonic
Shadow

Now, here's who's left:

Geno
Ridley
Waluigi
Metal Sonic
Shadow.

As for Ridley, he still was a "new" character that did not show up at all in previous Smash games ... so why wasn't Legacy XP deleted because of Ridley? My possible answer is Ridley was base game and not DLC. My theory is the take down has to do with DLC, specifically for Fighter's Pass 2.

So what's the difference between base roster fighter and a DLC fighter? They don't have a price tag on them. The base fighters are bundled with the entire game. The story, items, spirits, music, etc. etc. So what is the value of a base fighter with the game? A penny or 2? A dime?

Unlike DLC fighters, there is a price tag. DLC fighters have specified value that's imperative for both Nintendo and the Licensing company. It means money for all parties involved. That is why, in my mind, it wasn't a big deal for Ridley. Ridley being in a mod was not direct competition with Smash Ultimate since that Ridley comes with an entire new game who's value is just pennies for the entire game.

So what do we have?

Geno
Waluigi
Metal Sonic
Shadow

I totally understand why PapaGeno's ha said there is a SMALL list that goes with Waluigi and Geno and saying them points to this. Also, I understand why he thinks it's most likely (not 100%) between the first two. Why? Well, if SEGA is going to have another fighter via FP2, they could go with another series. SEGA does have some other series/characters to use, so that is why the thinking is MORE likely Geno and Waluigi compared to those two.

So it's either both, either or none of the Waluigi and Geno duo. To me, I can see Geno more likely since Square would certainly want to push getting paid and not have any competition for their fighter who they want to get paid for. It's money for two parties.

For the TL;DR version: My quick summary is Legacy XP wasn't taken down for Ridley since Ridley was in the base game and doesn't have a direct value or lost revenue compared to a DLC fighter that has a direct, significantly higher value due to you paying for them (stage and money too). The reason it points to Waluigi or Geno compared to Metal Sonic and Shadow is IF SEGA has another DLC fighter, they may choose a different character/series to add more representation. So that's why its "more likely" between Waluigi and/or Geno compared to Shadow and/or Metal Sonic but not 100%

 

[7NATOR]

PM also stayed up for years before (presumably) being taken down by Nintendo in late 2015, the same year a certain messy haired Fire Emblem Boy and Psychic Purple Cat were added as DLC in Smash 4 thinking emote

To be fair on that one, Project M was tookdown after they both got in. I think Project M and Legacy XP are different cases for why they got tookdown

 

[Fatmanonice]

So, thinking things over about the earlier theorycraft for 7...

Corresponding Amiibo Wave: September 25th

Implied release date: September 7th or September 14th

Implied Sakurai Presents presentation: August 31st or September 7th

Nobody has been revealed and released following a Sakurai Presents presentation. There's always been a gap of at least a week. If a character is released at the end of a Sakurai Presents presentation, it's because they were announced before then. Here are the number of days between the DLC characters announcement and release:

Plant- 92 (36 between Joker, 56 until release)
Joker - 132 (63 from February 2019 Direct)
Hero- 49
Banjo- 85 (37 from Hero)
Terry- 63
Byleth- 12 (47 from VGAs)
Min Min - 7 (95 from ARMS announcement, 75 until what would have been E3)

Average: 63

You'll notice that because of "stacked" and delayed announcements, some of the numbers are pretty small or large in comparison. By "stacked" I mean multiple characters announced before one of them is released. Let's see what happens when we focus on the more "realistic" numbers for the sake of consistency:

Adjusted average: 56

So, based on both of these models, there's typically about a two month gap between announcements and releases. Now, supposedly there was supposed to be a big Direct on the 20th so let's see what happens when we plug these two numbers in:

56 days later- September 14th

63 days later- September 21th

Amiibo and characters have only released in the same week once with Terry which means September 14th is the more realistic release window of 7 based on this model.

 

[Izanagi97]

I see that Geno is trending on Twitter again!
Though clicking on it, people are confused whether it's about the character, the football quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks, or the baseball player for the Cincinnati Reds.
View attachment 280530

Looks like its a combination of the three