Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[RetrogamerMax]

No! What we really need is Pink Gold Peach as a fully unique character.

 

[Deleted member]

I do find it very that every Mii costume pack coming back 2 old ones each interesting except Hero’s pack missing Geno and Chocobo.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I don't think there is someone who could echo Geno, in or outside the Mario universe. We could call out characters in SMRPG that could echo other characters, but Geno himself seems to lack options in that regard.

I expected at least one Mii Gunner joke. Damnit. XD

 

[Deleted member]

No! What we really need is Pink Gold Peach as a fully unique character.

Whoever had the idea to make Pink Gold Peach needs to be fired. What’s next Nintendo? Orange Bronze Daisy and Blue Platinum Rosalina?

 

[RetrogamerMax]

I expected at least one Mii Gunner joke. Damnit. XD

Pinocho could be Geno's Echo, but that's some heavy red tape because of him being owned by Disney or is it Dreamworks?

 

[EarlTamm]

I expected at least one Mii Gunner joke. Damnit. XD

Well, you did say "Joking aside".

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Pinocho could be Geno's Echo, but that's some heavy red tape because of him being owned by Disney or is it Dreamworks?

Both?

...What about Puppetmon?

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Both?

...What about Puppetmon?

Puppetmon might just be the perfect Echo for Geno. You just won the Internet.

 

[Deleted member]

I hope Nintendo of Japan sees Operation Starfall and put Geno and Mallow in Mario Kart 9 and other party/sports title. They would be perfect partners in Double Dash.

 

[Fatmanonice]

But there's no fossil record that this T-Rex ever existed, there's just this one over-zealous challenger pack that included three games worth of Persona references... and still came with two returning fighters. Joker, as the only character to have 6 costumes, is our "control group" in this science experiment, right? A living fossil in our somewhat contrived T-Rex example. I just feel like if we want to claim Occam's Razor on power of six we're still too complicated for the simpler assumption to not be "every pack was supposed to have 2 returning costumes but Hero broke it."

How is it too complicated? That's like saying ice cubes melting into water is complicated too. It's only complicated if you don't break it down, which we have, repeatedly, over the course of a month and a half. Over simplifying would be if l put an ice cube in your hand, watched it melt and said, "holy ****, yer a wizard, Harry!" No... Changes in states of matter happen because of changes of energy within atoms which in turn changes the speed of atoms within molecules which affect the corresponding elements which in turn the overall state of matter of a particular thing but that's not necessary to go into because "states of matter can change" is concise enough. Same premise here. Like I joked earlier, this isn't rocket science and we're not trying to prove the existence of Atlantis, we're merely pointing out patterns that seemingly paint a bigger picture.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I hope Nintendo of Japan sees Operation Starfall and put Geno and Mallow in Mario Kart 9 and other party/sports title. They are perfect partners in Double Dash.

It'd be great, honestly. Hopefully SE likes the idea. I mean, it's not something like remaking SMRPG or even having it ported to another console(VC style stuff), since licensing when it comes to SE is often split among many parties. It's at most character designs being licensed and SE being fine with it. Very simple task in comparison.

 

[Opossum]

.

1. You may argue about music, but let me stop you right there: Smash 4 ALREADY had those rights negotiated for due to Beware the Forest Mushrooms being played for Geno's costume reveal in Smash 4. So, not only could the rights have still been in play for that long BUT Sakurai would have already negotiated for music to come with Geno's costume before the game launched. Also Yoko Shimomura has been working with Smash for years now, so it really would not be hard to get a remix or just the original track to come with the costume and be ready in July.

Just wanted to chime in and say that this isn't how music licensing works at all.

There are various types of music licenses. Among them, the two most relevant here are synch/promotional licenses (the type for things like commercials) and mechanical/distribution licenses (the type that allows you to sell the music in a tangible form, like a CD or a digital download). Getting the rights to the former and getting the rights to the latter are two entirely separate things.

So when they agreed to have Beware the Forest Mushrooms play in the showcase, that was a promotional license. That does NOT give them the right to sell that song in a costume pack or Challenger Pack. That's an entirely separate agreement. We've even seen similar things like this before. For Hero's trailer, Overture plays in its full symphonic glory, and they include the orchestral version of Adventure, but the game itself only has a snippet of Overture in Hero's victory theme and only includes the MIDIs of the other tracks, Adventure included.

For reference, this is also the reason certain stages can't be played in Nintendo-sponsored tournaments. Some stages have music that they didn't get the streaming or live performance rights for, which is a whole different license too.

So no, there's no preset negotiation for SMRPG music. Or at least, there's not any evidence for it.

 

[Deleted member]

Just wanted to chime in and say that this isn't how music licensing works at all.

There are various types of music licenses. Among them, the two most relevant here are synch/promotional licenses (the type for things like commercials) and mechanical/distribution licenses (the type that allows you to sell the music in a tangible form, like a CD or a digital download). Getting the rights to the former and getting the rights to the latter are two entirely separate things.

So when they agreed to have Beware the Forest Mushrooms play in the showcase, that was a promotional license. That does NOT give them the right to sell that song in a costume pack or Challenger Pack. That's an entirely separate agreement. We've even seen similar things like this before. For Hero's trailer, Overture plays in its full symphonic glory, and they include the orchestral version of Adventure, but the game itself only has a snippet of Overture in Hero's victory theme and only includes the MIDIs of the other tracks, Adventure included.

For reference, this is also the reason certain stages can't be played in Nintendo-sponsored tournaments. Some stages have music that they didn't get the streaming or live performance rights for, which is a whole different license too.

So no, there's no preset negotiation for SMRPG music. Or at least, there's not any evidence for it.

I wish overture was in Hero’s soundtrack and orchestrated Adventure. Does anyone know what game that Overture version is from or was it newly created just for Smash?

 

[catsforlife1]

Something I would like to add about geno and chocabo being missing is that it has been proven that square does want there stuff released at the same time. Back in smash 4 not only did geno and chocabo get released the same day cloud did but they also got there own video showcasing the two of them without the miis from the final smash direct. I think its pretty safe to assume that the two miis would come back with a square character. If the mii list is correct however it seems geno is the most likely one to bring those costumes back.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Honestly, the only reason I'm harking on this topic is because people are still saying "it's too complicated" when I've been breaking down everything into bullet points and the amount of words on the back of a shampoo bottle. If it's still too esoteric, I don't know what to say.

On the note of "Power of Two", I'd like to hear people's opinions on who they think 5's pairing will be.

 

[Deleted member]

Honestly, the only reason I'm harking on this topic is because people are still saying "it's too complicated" when I've been breaking down everything into bullet points and the amount of words on the back of a shampoo bottle. If it's still too esoteric, I don't know what to say.

On the note of "Power of Two", I'd like to hear people's opinions on who they think 5's pairing will be.

Maybe Dragonborn with Monster Hunter costumes?

 

[RetrogamerMax]

On the note of "Power of Two", I'd like to hear people's opinions on who they think 5's pairing will be.

Mii costumes coming along with fighter #75 or fighter #76? Fighterwise: I think if Geno or Doomslayer get's revealed, both of them will be together just due to the Mallow/Cacodemon leak if that's real. If FP5 is someone else? Than I have no idea.

 

[ActualGarbage]

On the note of "Power of Two", I'd like to hear people's opinions on who they think 5's pairing will be.

That's a pretty hard question to answer given how many different variables are going on here. I mean as examples, #5 is Solaire and he could come with Lloyd and Gil because sword. A Capcom character could show up and give us a mix of any of the remaining four Capcom ones. The pastabilities are endless kinda, a little.

 

[Fatmanonice]

That's a pretty hard question to answer given how many different variables are going on here. I mean as examples, #5 is Solaire and he could come with Lloyd and Gil because sword. A Capcom character could show up and give us a mix of any of the remaining four Capcom ones. The pastabilities are endless kinda, a little.

That's the idea. If "Power of Two" continues and the pairings are deliberate, we currently have the following pairs MIA:

-Geno and Chocobo

-EXE and X

-Rathalos and Monster Hunter

-Gil and Lloyd

-Heihachi and Sia Laboeuf

 

[ActualGarbage]

That's the idea. If "Power of Two" continues and the pairings are deliberate, we currently have the following pairs MIA:

-Geno and Chocobo

-EXE and X

-Rathalos and Monster Hunter

-Gil and Lloyd

-Heihachi and Sia Laboeuf

I must've been sleeping on the day that they announced the actual cannibal Mii costume, damn.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Honestly, the only reason I'm harking on this topic is because people are still saying "it's too complicated" when I've been breaking down everything into bullet points and the amount of words on the back of a shampoo bottle. If it's still too esoteric, I don't know what to say.

On the note of "Power of Two", I'd like to hear people's opinions on who they think 5's pairing will be.

Except the points you've been making are inherently esoteric given the logical assumptions that have to be made to support them. While the definition of esoteric (intended for or likely to be understood by only a small number of people with a specialized knowledge or interest) doesn't necessarily fit here, the reason you're getting pushback is because there are people who cannot jump through the same mental hoops to justify an unsubstantiated fan theory.

There is no evidence for any of the claims you've made besides observations of patterns that may or may not actually exist. Compare this to more solid evidence such as official statements, which don't provide any support for your claims.

Seriously. When was the last time a pattern observed by fans was proven correct?

Official box art for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate special edition!

Looks like it's missing two characters. Isabelle and... Who?? 🧐 pic.twitter.com/DhDVWm1aby

— Nintendeal (@Nintendeal) September 15, 2018

Oh...

 

[Deleted member]

How is it too complicated? That's like saying ice cubes melting into water is complicated too. It's only complicated if you don't break it down, which we have, repeatedly, over the course of a month and a half. Over simplifying would be if l put an ice cube in your hand, watched it melt and said, "holy ****, yer a wizard, Harry!" No... Changes in states of matter happen because of changes of energy within atoms which in turn changes the speed of atoms within molecules which affect the corresponding elements which in turn the overall state of matter of a particular thing but that's not necessary to go into because "states of matter can change" is concise enough. Same premise here. Like I joked earlier, this isn't rocket science and we're not trying to prove the existence of Atlantis, we're merely pointing out patterns that seemingly paint a bigger picture.

Honestly, the only reason I'm harking on this topic is because people are still saying "it's too complicated" when I've been breaking down everything into bullet points and the amount of words on the back of a shampoo bottle. If it's still too esoteric, I don't know what to say.

On the note of "Power of Two", I'd like to hear people's opinions on who they think 5's pairing will be.

I don't mean "too complicated" as in this is too hard to understand, I'm sorry if it came off like that. I'm simply stating that Occam's Razor, as long as we're talking about the same sharpened metal, is used to imply that the simplest explanation is often the correct one. Tell me which of these situations is "simpler":

"Due to tremendous sales of the Fighters Pass sometime between November 3 and (let's go with ForsakenM 's theory) December [date], Nintendo decided that another wave of DLC is in order. They make a last minute decision, based on this information, to reveal Joker, who currently has no model or gameplay footage associated with him, at the Game Awards, and 4 and a half months later finally release him the day after shadowdropping a trailer for him that reveals he'll be coming with 6 mii costumes, 4 new and 2 returning from Smash 4. However, every pack after him was supposed to have 6 mii costumes, but due to the aforementioned unplanned continuation of DLC, every Challenger Pack cuts at least 1 returning Mii fighter from their attached Mii costume pack so that they never hit the arbitrary 6 again, and this is proof that Geno and Lloydbros have something to celebrate because both are still mysteriously missing."

Or

Every Challenger Pack was planned to have 2 returning Mii costumes attached to its release and Hero's mysteriously doesn't.

Even typing it out is much simpler in nature. It's nothing against you (I mean, obviously, this is just some random from GameFAQ's theory that you've run with), but power of six just seems super contrived to me. Under intense scrutiny it tends to start to break down because of all of the assumptions it makes. In the post where I went over your 7 points, I pointed out which ones are solid assumptions and which are shakier, and in my humble opinion, the shakier ones are the legs it needed to stand on.

As for who I think 5's gonna get paired with, I stated earlier that X and EXE are gonna get paired up with Vault Boy and I'm sticking to those guns.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

No one is arguing that Geno is happening for Fighter #5. There was a very small point in time where we argued that Spirits don't truly disconfirm a character from being DLC and we were extending that to the Fighter's Pass, but the further the pass went on the more we found that it was bringing characters who had no Spirits in the game and thus we stood our ground at the line that made sense: Being a Spirit, a literally PNG that barely does anything in only a couple of modes in the game and is essentially the replacement for trophies in this title, does not prevent them from being playable through DLC later. Also we've been over the Spirits stuff a ton and you've brought nothing new here. In fact, Sakurai was barely involved in Spirits at all: he basically only showed up now and again to do exactly as you said, but he barely ever picked any himself and had a whole team dedicated to that.

This is where we disagree because you are SO hardstuck on the DQ costumes somehow meaning it was 'always and forever only DQ stuff' when reality shows us that EACH Mii costume line-up came with two older costumes and that pattern has stayed true...save for Hero. Fighter #5 will 99.99~% bring two returning Mii costumes...so why didn't Hero? With YOUR logic, since it was just jerk-off DQ time, there should have been one or two more DQ costumes since Hero has brought the least costumes with him...but that didn't happen. Well, there were two Square Enix returning costumes that could have been brought with him, and even if they didn't include the Chocobo hat, Geno's costume is the easy one to place in there and there is LITERALLY no reason not to bring it back there unless something happened to change that.

Now, for SOME reason, you have the belief that Geno's costume could have been removed to be included later and bring a music track or two. Well, I have bad news for this theory, and I'll break it down for you.

1. Literally all the other Mii Costumes were either already negotiated for during DLC talks or they still had the rights to them since they were older Mii Costumes from Smash 4.
2. When you add in the fact that Geno's Spirit and Icon as well as Mallow's Spirit and Icon are in base game and that Piranha Plant comes with not one but two references to SMRPG exclusions enemies (Chewie and Smilax/Megasmilax) it becomes obvious that Geno's costume would have been negotiated for before the game even launched.
3. You may argue about music, but let me stop you right there: Smash 4 ALREADY had those rights negotiated for due to Beware the Forest Mushrooms being played for Geno's costume reveal in Smash 4. So, not only could the rights have still been in play for that long BUT Sakurai would have already negotiated for music to come with Geno's costume before the game launched. Also Yoko Shimomura has been working with Smash for years now, so it really would not be hard to get a remix or just the original track to come with the costume and be ready in July.
4. In light of all this, it makes absolutely no sense to hold back Geno's Mii Costume for anything else BUT being revealed with another Square Enix character later on. You can argue that he could come with Sora or Sephiroth but we've already been over why that makes no sense and the strength of the CacoMallow leak still not being fully debunked gives more power and pull on Geno's side of the court than that of another Square rep.

You do realize that they have to renegotiate for Beware the Forests Mushrooms, and there's probably a different procedure for its inclusion in a trailer and in a finished product. We don't know at all how much things might have changed for Square Enix or if they may have been more difficult in negotiating for Geno content a second time around because of the renewed interest or something of the sort.

EricTheGamerman Since you have been working on debating the power of six theory, could you re-list all the current costumes that were with each set? I can't remember how you pointed out the flaw of it.

So, right now the costumes are as follows, with the returning costumes in bold:

Joker - Yu, Makoto, Teddy, Morgana, Tails, Knuckles (2 Returning Costumes)
Hero - Dragon Quest 1 Hero (Erdrick), Martial Artist, Veronica, Slime (0 Returning Costumes)
Banjo & Kazooie - Sans, Goemon, Team Rocket Grunt, Zero, Protoman (2 Returning Costumes)
Terry - Nakoruru, Ryo, Iori, Akira, Jacky (2 Returning Costumes)

The flaws come from how the "power of six" was originally propositioned. The power of six would have been as follows:

Joker - Yu, Makoto, Teddy, Morgana, Tails, Knuckles (2 Returning Costumes)
Hero - Dragon Quest 1 Hero (Erdrick), Martial Artist, Veronica, Slime, Chocobo, Geno (2 Returning Costumes)
Banjo & Kazooie - Sans, Goemon, Zero, Protoman, EXE, X (4 Returning Costumes)
Terry - Nakoruru, Ryo, Iori, Akira, Jacky, Heihachi (3 Returning Costumes)
FP#5 - ?, ?, Gil, Lloyd, Rathalos Armor, Hunter Armor (4 Returning Costumes)

This is the proposition that Fatmanonice makes with the original "power of six." The issue with the theory comes from how much it assumes. Here are the assumptions I'll list out:

1. Hero was supposed to come with additional Square Enix content and not just be a focus on Dragon Quest. It's a sensible idea on paper, but there's nothing factually backing it up outside of "it would make sense."
2. Banjo & Kazooie were originally supposed to come with 2 more returning costumes. Again, this is part of the theory that cannot be substantiated outside of "it fits with the theory." The theory demands that there originally have been 4 costumes here so as to fit the return of all previous missing Mii costumes, so this has to be true for "power of six" to hold any grounds... but again, it remains completely unproven.
3. Team Rocket Grunt was a replacement for one of those missing costumes. I genuinely don't know how this comes in to play in any logical way. The sole "evidence" that is claimed for this is that the Team Rocket Grunt is the only first party costume in the game... but that doesn't actually tell us anything conclusive. It could have just been a cool idea that they finally got the approval for or just genuinely always been planned to come with Banjo & Kazooie. Everything in the "power of six" being correct hinges on Team Rocket Grunt (or Sans or Goemon) being a replacement for a cut returning costume... Otherwise there would be either 7 costumes with Banjo & Kazooie or there were never planned to come with 4 returning ones (3 does work if we assume Fighter #5 comes with only one new costume in that scenario, but it's pretty unlikely).
4. The cut costumes from Banjo & Kazooie were specifically EXE and X. In addition to the leap of logic required to get to the fact that B&K were originally supposed to come with 4 returning costumes, it specifically requires yet another leap in that they were supposed to be all Mega Man costumes to fit the "thematic theming" concept the theory pushes forward. There's once again, nothing to substantiate this claim in the least bit other than "it works with the theory." It's worth pointing out that the Mega Man costumes in Smash 4 came in different batches, so there's no guarantee they were ever supposed to come together. Fatmanonice also likes to point out that it would have neatly fit to 2 swords, 4 gunners as if there is a consistency to what gets released when in terms of "types" of costumes... but then Terry also breaks that mold. He came with 1 sword, 4 brawlers... if the original power of six had been followed it would have been 1 sword, 5 brawlers. Which means that balance of "types" was never a priority for the team before or after whatever decisions were made regarding future DLC.
   1. It's worth also pointing out that if plans had changed there's no reason to change the original plan and make a replacement. Hero came with 4 costumes and 0 of those were returning costumes, they had no issue with a smaller batch of all new ones previously, and there's no reason to cut specifically EXE and X as we're unlikely to get more Mega Man content since all the wanted and sensible options are already present as Mii costumes in Protoman and Zero (and Bass is in the Final Smash). You can say, well another Capcom character is coming... but again, that assumes A. Another Capcom character is indeed coming and B. They care about the fact that there is a returning costume with said Capcom character (which they didn't care about with regards to Hero). Again, neither is a provable claim and requires additional assumptions.
5. Chocobo was cut to join Geno in future DLC/throw people off from the idea that he would be playable. Again, the "power of six" insists that Chocobo was slated to come with Hero, but was cut. Again, this is the second instance in which we have to assume an unnecessary cut was made in order to satisfy the new "power of two" rule. That puts us at a minimum of 3 unnecessary cuts (EXE, X, and Chocobo). None of these need to be cut. They can just cut Geno if he's going to be DLC later on, and they can just cut Heihachi if he's going to be DLC later on (those are the 2 costumes that are presumably the most notably missing).

You all see where I'm going with this. Power of six, and the ad hoc hypothesis of the "power of two," require tons of logical leaps and assumptions to be some complete theory. It's ridiculous to try to use "Occam's Razor" as a defense when you've added so many unnecessary complications and wrinkles in those additional assumptions to make one giant massive theory as opposed to a more straightforward one like: Geno and Heihachi were cut because they will be playable in the future. Even that's entirely unsubstantiated because of the fact that "it makes sense" isn't actually a terribly important line of logic. Geno and Heihachi may have made sense to be included with Hero and Terry respectively, but there's no guarantee they were ever meant to come with them and there's not even a guarantee that they'll return to begin with...

But it's a much simpler and easy to digest theory that doesn't require this much from an observer as the power of six and power of two. Those in particular are on incredibly shaky ground at best and nowhere near the simplistic and "obvious" explanations people seem to think them to be. They're convoluted masses of explanation with a couple of pieces of circumstantial and possible evidence at best.

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Except the points you've been making are inherently esoteric given the logical assumptions that have to be made to support them. While the definition of esoteric (intended for or likely to be understood by only a small number of people with a specialized knowledge or interest) doesn't necessarily fit here, the reason you're getting pushback is because there are people who cannot jump through the same mental hoops to justify an unsubstantiated fan theory.

There is no evidence for any of the claims you've made besides observations of patterns that may or may not actually exist. Compare this to more solid evidence such as official statements, which don't provide any support for your claims.

Seriously. When was the last time a pattern observed by fans was proven correct?

Official box art for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate special edition!

Looks like it's missing two characters. Isabelle and... Who?? 🧐 pic.twitter.com/DhDVWm1aby

— Nintendeal (@Nintendeal) September 15, 2018

Oh...

To be honest, notable constant patterns I believe have more ground to it than just a bunch of people saying: "So and so is iconic, thus: he is getting in because no one else makes sense.". A bunch of people assumed Leon Kennedy or Jill Valentine until Resident Evil was deconfirmed by getting Spirits through a update. People still assume characters like Edelgard or Hayabusa are coming even though there really isn't any evidence to even slightly prove they're coming.

 

[catsforlife1]

You do realize that they have to renegotiate for Beware the Forests Mushrooms, and there's probably a different procedure for its inclusion in a trailer and in a finished product. We don't know at all how much things might have changed for Square Enix or if they may have been more difficult in negotiating for Geno content a second time around because of the renewed interest or something of the sort.



So, right now the costumes are as follows, with the returning costumes in bold:

Joker - Yu, Makoto, Teddy, Morgana, Tails, Knuckles (2 Returning Costumes)
Hero - Dragon Quest 1 Hero (Erdrick), Martial Artist, Veronica, Slime (0 Returning Costumes)
Banjo & Kazooie - Sans, Goemon, Team Rocket Grunt, Zero, Protoman (2 Returning Costumes)
Terry - Nakoruru, Ryo, Iori, Akira, Jacky (2 Returning Costumes)

The flaws come from how the "power of six" was originally propositioned. The power of six would have been as follows:

Joker - Yu, Makoto, Teddy, Morgana, Tails, Knuckles (2 Returning Costumes)
Hero - Dragon Quest 1 Hero (Erdrick), Martial Artist, Veronica, Slime, Chocobo, Geno (2 Returning Costumes)
Banjo & Kazooie - Sans, Goemon, Zero, Protoman, EXE, X (4 Returning Costumes)
Terry - Nakoruru, Ryo, Iori, Akira, Jacky, Heihachi (3 Returning Costumes)
FP#5 - ?, ?, Gil, Lloyd, Rathalos Armor, Hunter Armor (4 Returning Costumes)

This is the proposition that Fatmanonice makes with the original "power of six." The issue with the theory comes from how much it assumes. Here are the assumptions I'll list out:

1. Hero was supposed to come with additional Square Enix content and not just be a focus on Dragon Quest. It's a sensible idea on paper, but there's nothing factually backing it up outside of "it would make sense."
2. Banjo & Kazooie were originally supposed to come with 2 more returning costumes. Again, this is part of the theory that cannot be substantiated outside of "it fits with the theory." The theory demands that there originally have been 4 costumes here so as to fit the return of all previous missing Mii costumes, so this has to be true for "power of six" to hold any grounds... but again, it remains completely unproven.
3. Team Rocket Grunt was a replacement for one of those missing costumes. I genuinely don't know how this comes in to play in any logical way. The sole "evidence" that is claimed for this is that the Team Rocket Grunt is the only first party costume in the game... but that doesn't actually tell us anything conclusive. It could have just been a cool idea that they finally got the approval for or just genuinely always been planned to come with Banjo & Kazooie. Everything in the "power of six" being correct hinges on Team Rocket Grunt (or Sans or Goemon) being a replacement for a cut returning costume... Otherwise there would be either 7 costumes with Banjo & Kazooie or there were never planned to come with 4 returning ones (3 does work if we assume Fighter #5 comes with only one new costume in that scenario, but it's pretty unlikely).
4. The cut costumes from Banjo & Kazooie were specifically EXE and X. In addition to the leap of logic required to get to the fact that B&K were originally supposed to come with 4 returning costumes, it specifically requires yet another leap in that they were supposed to be all Mega Man costumes to fit the "thematic theming" concept the theory pushes forward. There's once again, nothing to substantiate this claim in the least bit other than "it works with the theory." It's worth pointing out that the Mega Man costumes in Smash 4 came in different batches, so there's no guarantee they were ever supposed to come together. Fatmanonice also likes to point out that it would have neatly fit to 2 swords, 4 gunners as if there is a consistency to what gets released when in terms of "types" of costumes... but then Terry also breaks that mold. He came with 1 sword, 4 brawlers... if the original power of six had been followed it would have been 1 sword, 5 brawlers. Which means that balance of "types" was never a priority for the team before or after whatever decisions were made regarding future DLC.
   1. It's worth also pointing out that if plans had changed there's no reason to change the original plan and make a replacement. Hero came with 4 costumes and 0 of those were returning costumes, they had no issue with a smaller batch of all new ones previously, and there's no reason to cut specifically EXE and X as we're unlikely to get more Mega Man content since all the wanted and sensible options are already present as Mii costumes in Protoman and Zero (and Bass is in the Final Smash). You can say, well another Capcom character is coming... but again, that assumes A. Another Capcom character is indeed coming and B. They care about the fact that there is a returning costume with said Capcom character (which they didn't care about with regards to Hero). Again, neither is a provable claim and requires additional assumptions.
5. Chocobo was cut to join Geno in future DLC/throw people off from the idea that he would be playable. Again, the "power of six" insists that Chocobo was slated to come with Hero, but was cut. Again, this is the second instance in which we have to assume an unnecessary cut was made in order to satisfy the new "power of two" rule. That puts us at a minimum of 3 unnecessary cuts (EXE, X, and Chocobo). None of these need to be cut. They can just cut Geno if he's going to be DLC later on, and they can just cut Heihachi if he's going to be DLC later on (those are the 2 costumes that are presumably the most notably missing).

You all see where I'm going with this. Power of six, and the ad hoc hypothesis of the "power of two," require tons of logical leaps and assumptions to be some complete theory. It's ridiculous to try to use "Occam's Razor" as a defense when you've added so many unnecessary complications and wrinkles in those additional assumptions to make one giant massive theory as opposed to a more straightforward one like: Geno and Heihachi were cut because they will be playable in the future. Even that's entirely unsubstantiated because of the fact that "it makes sense" isn't actually a terribly important line of logic. Geno and Heihachi may have made sense to be included with Hero and Terry respectively, but there's no guarantee they were ever meant to come with them and there's not even a guarantee that they'll return to begin with...

But it's a much simpler and easy to digest theory that doesn't require this much from an observer as the power of six and power of two. Those in particular are on incredibly shaky ground at best and nowhere near the simplistic and "obvious" explanations people seem to think them to be. They're convoluted masses of explanation with a couple of pieces of circumstantial and possible evidence at best.

I highly doubt they would cut the geno costume if genos gonna be a fighter. Its clear that there trying to bring all the old miis back from smash 4 so i dont see why they would just get rid of the geno mii. In smash 4 we got miis based of other fighters so it does not really seem like a stretch they could bring the geno mii back with geno

 

[Gentlepanda]

sakurai in reality: "oh yeah just put a handful of mii costumes in there too i guess"
intern-kun: "how many sir"
sakurai: "i literally do not care"

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

EricTheGamerman So even with the possibly cut costumes in the Hero pack(I don't believe it to be the case myself, but it's hardly impossible), you can't even get 6 total otherwise overall for each pack.

Yeah, that's what it was. The theory doesn't hold any water.

The idea every pack was meant to come with at least two returning costumes I could see being plausible. Things obviously change, but it would likely change immediately. For that matter, the fact Hero didn't means it was already removed as an idea after Joker. And the idea every pack would come with costumes related to the company was killed. It looks more like the packs are being done around their own ideal set up via talking to the company in question where applicable. Banjo is actually the biggest change up(not Hero, who makes a lot more sense) since he came with a lot of weird costumes. Like, Goemon is probably the closest thing to an adventure-like mascot that somewhat fits Banjo's character. That's... it. The rest are very out there in comparison.

This is more or less why I don't think there's a real pattern to begin with. Besides, Team Rocket Grunt sounds best with someone like Joker, due to more similar franchises, being a unique costumed character(just like Joker himself), and being more on the Dark side of abilities they use within their own franchise. Generally, Rocket Grunts go for "dark-like" Pokemon. Persona is all about demons. I can't really see much of anything that ties the costumes well to Banjo to begin with.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I highly doubt they would cut the geno costume if genos gonna be a fighter. Its clear that there trying to bring all the old miis back from smash 4 so i dont see why they would just get rid of the geno mii. In smash 4 we got miis based of other fighters so it does not really seem like a stretch they could bring the geno mii back with geno

If you're looking for a pattern to follow, in the 12 DLC fighters we have received since Smash 4 started DLC, not a single one has had a corresponding Mii fighter costume of themselves sold alongside their release as an actual character. If Geno is playable, it's safe to assume we will not see his Mii costume in the game and vice versa. Yes, the newcomers in Smash Ultimate had Smash 4 DLC Mii costumes that came in base game with them, but we've never seen DLC characters also get a Mii costume in the same cycle. It doesn't mean it can't happen, but that's been the case thus far.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Except the points you've been making are inherently esoteric given the logical assumptions that have to be made to support them. While the definition of esoteric (intended for or likely to be understood by only a small number of people with a specialized knowledge or interest) doesn't necessarily fit here, the reason you're getting pushback is because there are people who cannot jump through the same mental hoops to justify an unsubstantiated fan theory.

There is no evidence for any of the claims you've made besides observations of patterns that may or may not actually exist. Compare this to more solid evidence such as official statements, which don't provide any support for your claims.

Seriously. When was the last time a pattern observed by fans was proven correct?

Official box art for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate special edition!

Looks like it's missing two characters. Isabelle and... Who?? 🧐 pic.twitter.com/DhDVWm1aby

— Nintendeal (@Nintendeal) September 15, 2018

Oh...

The irony is palpable here. You acknowledge patterns but automatically assume they mean nothing and then bring up a pattern from the past that did mean something, even something I disagreed with back then for essentially being "too convenient."

Also, why is it that my theory is "too complicated" but arguments against it could almost legally be classified as Stephen King novels? I'm almost terrified to do word counts for some of these posts. If my arguments are too complex, why are the arguments against it 4, 5, 6 times bigger?

 

[Tomasagaz14]

Something I would like to add about geno and chocabo being missing is that it has been proven that square does want there stuff released at the same time. Back in smash 4 not only did geno and chocabo get released the same day cloud did but they also got there own video showcasing the two of them without the miis from the final smash direct. I think its pretty safe to assume that the two miis would come back with a square character. If the mii list is correct however it seems geno is the most likely one to bring those costumes back.

Though take in account that Hero comes from the Enix side, he came with 4 different characters as alts, 8 Music tracks and some Spirits, while the Square part just gave us Cloud, 1 Spirit and two tracks, could perfectly be that Hero was just more on the Enix side and that's why Chocobo and Geno's costumes aren't back.

 

[catsforlife1]

Though take in account that Hero is from the Enix side, he came with 4 different characters as alts, 8 Music tracks and some Spirits, while the Square part just gave us Cloud, 1 Spirit and two tracks, could perfectly be that Hero was just more on the Enix side.

How does this have anything to do with what i have said?

 

[EricTheGamerman]

The irony is palpable here. You acknowledge patterns but automatically assume they mean nothing and then bring up a pattern from the past that did mean something, even something I disagreed with back then for essentially being "too convenient."

Also, why is it that my theory is "too complicated" but arguments against it could almost legally be classified as Stephen King novels? I'm almost terrified to do word counts for some of these posts. If my arguments are too complex, why are the arguments against it 4, 5, 6 times bigger?

Our responses are long because you hand-wave massive parts of your theory without examining the actual implications of what you're implying if this theory is to be true. We're confronting those individual assumptions and working through them to demonstrate the issues with the theory.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Though take in account that Hero comes from the Enix side, he came with 4 different characters as alts, 8 Music tracks and some Spirits, while the Square part just gave us Cloud, 1 Spirit and two tracks, could perfectly be that Hero was just more on the Enix side and that's why Chocobo and Geno's costumes aren't back.

I doubt this. They're the same company. Enix isn't the one being licensed for content. It's more that specific people are who owns the designs/music/etc.

It being a DQ-dedicated direct seems more like the reason it went that way. That's what Sakurai or Square-Enix wanted(I'm leaning more towards Sakurai).

 

[Tomasagaz14]

How does this have anything to do with what i have said?

The part of "Square does wants their stuff released at the same time" Hero is more of Enix, not Square.

 

[Deleted member]

How does this have anything to do with what i have said?

Yeah, I seriously doubt the “Enix side” theory. They’re still the same company.

 

[catsforlife1]

The part of "Square does wants their stuff released at the same time" Hero is more of Enix, not Square.

There one company now. You cant nitpick on who owns what. Plus even if we were to try and nitpick you would still be wrong. Atlus is owned by sega yet we still got tails and knuckles miis. Why would it not be the same thing with square and enix?

 

[Fatmanonice]

Our responses are long because you hand-wave massive parts of your theory without examining the actual implications of what you're implying if this theory is to be true. We're confronting those individual assumptions and working through them to demonstrate the issues with the theory.

That's not answering the question: if my arguments are too complicated despite breaking it down into smaller and smaller parts, how come the explanations against it are ironically significantly more complicated? You say that my ideas betray Occam's Razor but then make responses with the blade thickness of an axe? I... Uh... Bleh... Obviously no one is going to budge on this so it's one of those "golly, I guess we disagree on this thing" and leave it at that. If it's too complicated for you, then it's too complicated for you. Carry on my wayward son and all that.

 

[Spatulo]

Good lord some of y’all can write freakin novels. Okay so if I’m caught up correctly.

-every fighter has come with 2 returning Mii costumes except Hero.
-Thematically the most logical returning costumes to come with Hero would be Geno and Chocobo
-They didn’t
-So Geno is in

Why does this take so much yelling

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Like I said: I think in game constant patterns have more ground to it than just a bunch of people assuming "So and so is in." I'm talking to you all at the speculation/social threads that assume stuff without any in game evidence.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

To be honest, notable constant patterns I believe have more ground to it than just a bunch of people saying: "So and so is iconic, thus: he is getting in because no one else makes sense.". A bunch of people assumed Leon Kennedy or Jill Valentine until Resident Evil was deconfirmed by getting Spirits through a update. People still assume characters like Edelgard or Hayabusa are coming even though there really isn't any evidence to even slightly prove they're coming.

I don't remember addressing that anywhere in my prior argument, but arguments on abstract notions like "iconicness" and "making sense" are similarly weak.

I'm not saying that you can't believe these theories if you want to. At the end of the day it's up to you do decide what you believe.

I'm saying that you shouldn't argue such theories as if they're fact, because they aren't. Just like any argument they are subject to scrutiny, and more times than not they tend to be weak and based more off of assumptions and perceived patterns over facts and statements.

The irony is palpable here. You acknowledge patterns but automatically assume they mean nothing and then bring up a pattern from the past that did mean something, even something I disagreed with back then for essentially being "too convenient."

Also, why is it that my theory is "too complicated" but arguments against it could almost legally be classified as Stephen King novels? I'm almost terrified to do word counts for some of these posts. If my arguments are too complex, why are the arguments against it 4, 5, 6 times bigger?

Patterns do exist, but more often than not we see patterns where they don't exist. This isn't a bad thing; it's quite literally human nature to find patterns. My pointing out Box Theory was merely to show that more often than not the "theories" and "patterns" we come up with are false. Compare Box Theory to Chair Theory, Blog Theory, Music Theory, etc and you'll find that more often than not we are incorrect.

I don't understand your second point at all since length has nothing to do with validity or soundness. Rather, it is the premises laid out in the argument that determine validity or soundness.

There's also Serenade01's post that lays out the differences in the two arguments that you ignored. I made a minor edit to it to better suit the argument myself and others are making, which is marked appropriately:

I don't mean "too complicated" as in this is too hard to understand, I'm sorry if it came off like that. I'm simply stating that Occam's Razor, as long as we're talking about the same sharpened metal, is used to imply that the simplest explanation is often the correct one. Tell me which of these situations is "simpler":

"Due to tremendous sales of the Fighters Pass sometime between November 3 and (let's go with ForsakenM 's theory) December [date], Nintendo decided that another wave of DLC is in order. They make a last minute decision, based on this information, to reveal Joker, who currently has no model or gameplay footage associated with him, at the Game Awards, and 4 and a half months later finally release him the day after shadowdropping a trailer for him that reveals he'll be coming with 6 mii costumes, 4 new and 2 returning from Smash 4. However, every pack after him was supposed to have 6 mii costumes, but due to the aforementioned unplanned continuation of DLC, every Challenger Pack cuts at least 1 returning Mii fighter from their attached Mii costume pack so that they never hit the arbitrary 6 again, and this is proof that Geno and Lloydbros have something to celebrate because both are still mysteriously missing."

Or

Every Challenger Pack was planned to have 2 returning Mii costumes attached to its release and Hero's mysteriously doesn't.

One argument is clearly less complicated, and it's not yours'.

Like I've said before, there are plenty of good arguments for Geno's inclusion, and the fact that his Mii Costume hasn't shown up yet is a good sign. However, there's no need to contrive arbitrary theories to "prove" that his inclusion is definite.