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Seriously? Have you not seen how terrible the Mii Costume are when compared to the actual characters?
Hinata
You're not wrong in your arguments, those scenarios could happen, but my arguments are that the precedent has been established that it's not likely. Like I said in an earlier post, it's not a matter of absolutes, it's a matter of probability. For example, of Smash 4 full costumes or Mii hats that have returned to Smash Ultimate, we have about 70 so far. Of those 70, like I said, the only "upgrades" so far have been minor graphical touch ups. So, imagine that Geno's Mii costume was absolutely guaranteed to be the next one shown. It's Christmas Day, "**** you Geno fans, love Sakurai." Geno is number 71 and it's how you proposed, a complete reworking. So, on a basic and simple to understand level, this scenario is 1/71 or about 0.014 or 1.4%. This means that 98.6% of the Mii costumes weren't upgraded beyond some touch ups. Again, you're right, it COULD happen but in we've established it's almost a one out of a hundred scenario. Needless to say, those aren't great odds.
Maybe just because they didn't work with Geno around Hero's releases, but only with the DQ costumes? I don't see what's the problem with it, given that the costumes doesn't has to tie with the company, Geno's costume can come anytime.
This is a misleading use of statistics though. Each Mii costume has an independent chance of being upgraded that the status of the others doesn't necessarily directly impact (which is much more complex thing to figure out since we certainly don't have the data available to draw any such conclusions). If you flip a coin 70 times and it lands on heads every time, the 71st flip still has a (roughly since we can consider a relatively tiny percentage of flips to land on neither) 1/1 odds of landing on tails the next time. Yes, Geno's upgrade would account for only 1.4% of the returning Mii Costumes in a comparatively unique way, but the odds of it happening are independent from that 1.4%. It's also worth pointing out that even in your analysis, it may be more relevant to analyze the returning DLC Mii costumes and not the entirety of Mii costumes returning in Ultimate given there was an extremely clear first party/third party divide that ensured no third party Mii costumes returned to base game and they are clearly treated differently from the other costumes. It's also worth pointing out, that of the Mii costumes returning in Smash Ultimate, none have been of majorly requested characters thus far as those all got in as playable as base game, so there may be an entirely different circumstance to consider there. Lloyd and Geno are the biggest requested costumes left from Smash 4 DLC, and they are also the two costumes we still do not have in Smash Ultimate DLC. Furthermore, we do see extra effort given towards requested characters turned into Mii costumes. We got a Mii fighter for Isaac for example after not having one in addition to an Assist Trophy and we saw that Sans not only came with one of the best looking Mii costumes ever, but specifically also came with the first ever additional music DLC outside of new characters and stages.
Here's the thing though, I've already gone into great detail about how there's decent evidence that when the Fighter's Pass was one and done, the original plan was to bring back all 15 of Smash 4's third party DLC costumes. I've made several posts on the topic but to summarize:
ForsakenM
, we have a strong theory that Season 2 was probably pitched as early as last December and green lit as late as E3 2019 so, based on this abrupt change of plans, the simple omission of Geno and Chocobo with Hero makes a lot of sense, especially if we follow the theory that every pass was originally meant to have 6 Mii costumes like Joker.
Imagine wishing for a scenario that would make no one happy.
Two words: Occam's Razor. Power of Six Theory actually simplifies things by making the following statements:
I can’t think of any, Virtua Fighter has 2 and did Monster Hunter get 2 in Smash 4 or am I crazy? The argument of whether or not Super Mario RPG is its own series is a thing of course but I have a hard time believing they’d add three mii costumes not tied to any character
Yeah I think a “revamped” Geno costume with a song coming along with Mallow and Smithy SMRPG costumes is nonsense. Who does that even fully satisfy? Basically just the “we should be thankful for every bit of content in the game and who are we to judge as the paying consumer?” crowd.
Have you heard any word on how Post Fighters Pass/Season 2 would form? Like would there be Fighter Pass 2 or individual DLC like Piranha Plant?
Maybe I'm not articulating my point quite right, here... The assumption is that Geno should have come with Hero. I mean, he only got 4 costumes, and it's just weird that Square's other 2 returning costumes aren't there with those. Why is Geno's costume missing from that batch if they intend to "upgrade" it?
Hey, know what you did there? You cherry picked costumes of characters whose face is revealed, and also Chibi Robo, which has a relatively easy explanation. Of course, it just so happens that most Mii costumes are of human characters with just their iconic hairstyle or headpiece being used to be completed with either your approximation of the Mii's face, or just your custom Mii dressed up. That's the point to them.
I made the joke before but nobody knows because nobody bothers to look into it because the Smash fanbase typically doesn't care about stages or music in comparison to characters.
You can't just blunt force Occam's Razor into every situation though, and honestly, is there any reason to presume that Occam's Razor works in this capacity? Occam's Razor in this situation would straight up be, the Mii costumes included were the ones planned and there were no cuts or changes to the original plan for said Mii costumes. You're in a more complicated situation and using Occam's Razor as a defense, which in of itself doesn't work particularly well.
It fully satisfies people who are able to recognize that was the best that Sakurai and company could/would do for Geno. They're under no obligations to make us feel any better about anything or even necessarily do "what conventionally makes sense." It's not supposed to be the grand prize, it would be a consolation prize to Geno fans they couldn't make happy otherwise. That's the logic of a Mii costume upgrade we'd be following if Geno is not made a playable character.
Look, I don't have time to go through every single Mii Costume and point out how terrible they look. You can count all the good looking Mii Costumes on one hand with a few fingers left over. As for your Chibi Robo costume defense it doesn't matter, trash is still trash no matter how you twist it.Hey, know what you did there? You cherry picked costumes of characters whose face is revealed, and also Chibi Robo, which has a relatively easy explanation. Of course, it just so happens that most Mii costumes are of human characters with just their iconic hairstyle or headpiece being used to be completed with either your approximation of the Mii's face, or just your custom Mii dressed up. That's the point to them.
See this? This is actually really good. People sleep on this because 98% of Smash fans probably have no idea who he is.
If Miis could be customized just the tiniest bit more, he would be perfect. Why do you think that is...
Oh, right, because Goemon has always been stylized as a stocky little bobble head man. Go look him up yourself and see.
My point here is that Mii costumes are typically unfortunately of fan favorite characters that come from a very anime-esque franchise. Zero is a five and a half foot tall robot with very inhuman proportions (lower leg longer than thighs - a common trait among Mega Man and Mega Man X characters), as are Isaac and Rex. They don't "work" according to how a fan would perceive them as ideally playable. If Miis were taller and lankier, they would work better for anime style characters and worse for cartoony characters - in such a universe, people would probably hate Sans, just by the way.
Just kidding, his fans would still love it because like I mentioned already, even they didn't expect anything.
"So", I hear you asking yourself, "why does Chibi Robo look like one of those guys dressed up spinning the arrow to point you to the title loan office?" and I did say it was easily explained - look at Chibi Robo's body and look at the Mii. Just look at it from a completely objective standpoint, don't be offended for Chibi Robo fans and don't be angry if you're a fan yourself, just look at it. See how his body is disproportionately massive compared to his head, and how his weird spindly legs and arms had to be converted to fit the Mii fighter? This is the same reason we don't have echo fighters of characters who are taller or fatter than their base form - a true to form Chibi Robo Mii costume would have had to either adjust the hurtbox of the Mii fighter, or kept the hurtbox while changing the player model, which would have made it the optimal costume for mixing up your opponent's perception of where to hit you, and likewise, would have made it the optimal costume for not knowing where your own fighter can be hit.
"Ok", I hear you tentatively agreeing, "but why isn't Sans just his head on top of a Mii's head? It happens to a lot of characters!" and that's a little more on the subjective end. Some of it, like Teddy or Morgana, I think it's fair to write off as the Chibi Robo problem, but I can concede Tails and K. Rool could have at least had a full mask, but I think a lot of comes down to the fact that the creator of the character was on hand discussing what he'd like in a Mii Costume. Interesting to note is that of the characters that could have a full head (which, uh... Teddy actually kind of does?), it's Sega who gives the weird mascot hats the most. Maybe they just don't want the Mii representation of Tails looking like someone left a furry convention and ended up in Smash?
So as far as Geno goes, if the costume comes back, I think we're just getting the rat ass costume from 4, no upgrade, and this is because Square or whoever oversees the design of the costume thinks that the Mii face is good enough for him, in the same vein that it's good enough for Zero and good enough for Isaac.
EDIT: and the images broke. Just go look at the Goemon mii costume and look up official artwork and renders of Goemon.
EricTheGamerman
Why did things change? Fair question. Well, from what we've seen, every pass except Hero has come with pairs of Smash 4 costumes.As long as you look at Mii costumes with the pure contempt that comes with knowing they could have been characters, you'll never be able to admit that there are reasons many of them look the way they do. There's nothing unique or special about Sans aside from the fact that he really shouldn't even be here.
I still think the Power of Six theory is shaky just because it assumes the Mii costumes are coming back, falls apart with Banjo, and ignores a huge selection of Smash 4's costumes that weren't third party. To me, it implies that 4 Mii costumes have been decided to be upgraded to fighters, since at this rate we have 4 of 5 challenger packs that cut at least one returning Mii costume. I mean, we have reason to believe that maybe Hero was supposed to be the first revealed fighter and was pushed back to the second, which is why Joker took so long (which also is shaky)... So Joker's 6 costumes just means no one in that was at all planned to be playable ever, or Sega has zero chance of having another character, since their other 2 costumes got given to Terry to complete a theme.
Monster Hunter had the basic and Rathalos armor in Smash 4, not sure if those are back.
But that's exactly my issue with your theory! The two per fighter was never an actually intended amount. If we follow your theory; Joker - 2, Hero - 2, Banjo - 4, Terry - 3, Fighter #5 - 4 (very few new costumes as well whoever this ends up being). Even if you go, well, they cut Geno to make him playable later on; there's still the issue of Chocobo. They decided, OK, we're going to keep two costumes per fighter instead of this original plan. But, why would you cut any from Banjo & Kazooie to begin with when they were planned? They clearly have no issue having fewer costumes show up as we've seen the number of Mii fighter costumes be very inconsistent, and even more problematic is the fact that despite deciding that 2 is some hard number of returning costumes that should return, they were perfectly fine just letting 0 return with Hero, so 2 was never a hard number that absolutely had to be maintained.
Joker- Knuckles and Tails
Banjo- Zero and Protoman
Terry- Jacky and Akira
Based on this, it's not a huge leap to propose the trend will continue. It's an established pattern that may or may not be broken in the future.
As for Banjo, he's definitely a grab bag but Power of Six Theory gives it more consistency. If the theory is true, Banjo's original Mii costumes were: Goemon, Sans, Zero, Protoman, EXE, and X. Two swordsmen and four gunners, with the four Megaman costumes being knocked out in one pack. Again, super simple and not all complicated and broken down into about as many words on the back of a DVD. Case in point: Occam's Razor.
I think you're missing the forest for the trees, here - it's whatever was going to make 6 costumes per character, not what was going to balance out returning third party Miis. The number of returning costumes is essentially arbitrary, only the amount of costumes a character gets. Banjo is the huge outlier here because he came with no proprietary (for lack of a better word) costumes.
EricTheGamerman
We don't know why Banjo was changed but we do know that Rocket Grunt is literally the only first party costume in the passes so far. All the other first party DLC costumes from Smash 4 were in Ultimate's base game. That said, it's very unusual and definitely something to consider given just how much of an outlier it is.
Here's some possible explanations to those holes. Chocobo(and Geno) may have been cut because they decided to upgrade Geno in pack 2 and wanted the Chocobo hat to return with him. It would have been odd if Chocobo returned with Hero but not Geno right? They would pretty much be telling everyone that Geno is playable.
So, coincidentally, GameXplain just released the following video:
I mean, it's an outlier, but it's also kind of its own big deal due to the fact it's the first Pokemon related Mii costume we've seen in Smash period. It's not just an easy substitute per se given The Pokemon Company tends to be more protective in that regard.
The principle of Occam's Razor isn't that the simplest theory is always correct, it's the principle that theories ideally shouldn't be esoteric and that knowledge should be able to broken down enough that even "common people" can understand them. When it's at its best, science is accessible to even non-scientists. Occam's Razor isn't an absolute truth but more so a scientific and theorycraft ideal. That's why I like Judgeheihachi's outline of the Power of Six Theory, it breaks things down while at the same time establishing patterns and starting points of analysis that anybody can jump in on. It's not rocket science, except in the sense of the Rocket Grunt (wheeze).
I've already stated, people made all the same conclusions once Geno wasn't a Mii costume. Chocobo's absence practically achieved nothing in terms of changing speculation.
True, but you do have the people who are like "well I guess Chocobo is playable since he was cut too". So at least this way there is still some doubt.
The reason I can't be on board with that is Sakurai doesn't really play that much 4D chess with the fan base in terms of expectations. He's usually pretty transparent and I don't imagine he nor Nintendo care enough about the state of speculation to decide to pull Chocobo on the basis of casting additional doubt. It just seems excessive, even for them to be honest.
EricTheGamerman
2 cuts isn't unusual because we already see that with Hero. Again, precedent. That's not complicated, just like how we can see that 2 Mii costumes have come back with each pass except Hero, which again, is pretty noticeable. Honestly, I think you're ironically making it more complicated then it actually is.It's a fair assumption that if they brought Chocobo back and not Geno, more eyebrows would have been raised than are already, but I think the more likely explanation is that Slime was there and he's the cute, cuddly mascot character of Dragon Quest. Chocobo isn't, and in fact, is the cute cuddly mascot character of another RPG franchise.
You make good points. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what Mii costumes come with FP5(and beyond). Then we will get a better idea if there was actually anything to the theory or not.
Reminder that Sakurai did the AT slaughter on the last Smash direct.
In the absence of any hard evidence this is the best we can do. As I've said before, every time costumes get revealed and Geno isn't there, we're riding high. To echo
KCCHIEFS27
, the closer we get to the end of the pass and Geno isn't around, the more golden we look.
wynn728
's echo fighter, but he's absolutely right.
You should have thought about that before you were WRONG ON THE INTERNET!
