No one is arguing that Geno is happening for Fighter #5. There was a very small point in time where we argued that Spirits don't truly disconfirm a character from being DLC and we were extending that to the Fighter's Pass, but the further the pass went on the more we found that it was bringing characters who had no Spirits in the game and thus we stood our ground at the line that made sense: Being a Spirit, a literally PNG that barely does anything in only a couple of modes in the game and is essentially the replacement for trophies in this title, does not prevent them from being playable through DLC later. Also we've been over the Spirits stuff a ton and you've brought nothing new here. In fact, Sakurai was barely involved in Spirits at all: he basically only showed up now and again to do exactly as you said, but he barely ever picked any himself and had a whole team dedicated to that.
And he went through the whole list himself to remove any he thought shouldn't be in there. That's pretty heavily involved in a different way. Any removed would either be because they don't fit with DLC plans, cannot negotiate for, CERO-related stuff, or ones he didn't like.
I found out some time ago the DLC was apparently started work on close to when Spirits were decided upon. A rumor, but that's from other leaker stuff. It fits too damn well in how the Spirits have been handled, so I find it rather plausible.
The PNG thing is irrelevant because it has nothing to do with the Fighter's Pass anyway. That argument assumes that Sakurai didn't already go through the Spirits while figuring out DLC factors. That's why many were and weren't removed. That's what I'm sticking with, that pictures aren't at all an important factor. It's clear that upgrading a spirit is too easy because they can use a different picture. They don't need a different name either anyway. That's why I don't think Spirits disconfirm for all time. But I do think they aren't coming with the FP either way. If I'm wrong, cool. I won't be mad if we were to get someone like Waluigi, etc.
This is where we disagree because you are SO hardstuck on the DQ costumes somehow meaning it was 'always and forever only DQ stuff' when reality shows us that EACH Mii costume line-up came with two older costumes and that pattern has stayed true...save for Hero. Fighter #5 will 99.99~% bring two returning Mii costumes...so why didn't Hero? With YOUR logic, since it was just jerk-off DQ time, there should have been one or two more DQ costumes since Hero has brought the least costumes with him...but that didn't happen. Well, there were two Square Enix returning costumes that could have been brought with him, and even if they didn't include the Chocobo hat, Geno's costume is the easy one to place in there and there is LITERALLY no reason not to bring it back there unless something happened to change that.
No, I think they were completely DQ only and were always that way with no exceptions. There is no damn way Chocobo would fit in there. He makes no sense when he's a FF character. In fact, Geno and Chocobo are important mascots of their franchise. They'd fit way better under Banjo if they were planned that early. It's actually possible they never were coming back due to negotiations not working.
Now, for SOME reason, you have the belief that Geno's costume could have been removed to be included later and bring a music track or two. Well, I have bad news for this theory, and I'll break it down for you.
- Literally all the other Mii Costumes were either already negotiated for during DLC talks or they still had the rights to them since they were older Mii Costumes from Smash 4.
- When you add in the fact that Geno's Spirit and Icon as well as Mallow's Spirit and Icon are in base game and that Piranha Plant comes with not one but two references to SMRPG exclusions enemies (Chewie and Smilax/Megasmilax) it becomes obvious that Geno's costume would have been negotiated for before the game even launched.
- You may argue about music, but let me stop you right there: Smash 4 ALREADY had those rights negotiated for due to Beware the Forest Mushrooms being played for Geno's costume reveal in Smash 4. So, not only could the rights have still been in play for that long BUT Sakurai would have already negotiated for music to come with Geno's costume before the game launched. Also Yoko Shimomura has been working with Smash for years now, so it really would not be hard to get a remix or just the original track to come with the costume and be ready in July.
- In light of all this, it makes absolutely no sense to hold back Geno's Mii Costume for anything else BUT being revealed with another Square Enix character later on. You can argue that he could come with Sora or Sephiroth but we've already been over why that makes no sense and the strength of the CacoMallow leak still not being fully debunked gives more power and pull on Geno's side of the court than that of another Square rep.
1. Not that simple. Being an old costume means nothing. The only thing negotiated for with Geno was at least the Spirit. It's possible there was never an agreement beyond that.
2. That doesn't make it obvious either. That actually means they didn't agree with the costume but with the rest could happen too. There's more than one conclusion.
3. And that has nothing to do with Ultimate anyway, a different game. Sakurai cannot use any content from Smash 4 in Ultimate unless it was negotiated for both games. It's possible they actually negotiated for all the stuff for early game Ultimate, and Geno's costume was solely for one game. Unlikely, on the costume front, though, I admit.
4. Or maybe the costume was not going to be in Ultimate. That's possible too. We don't know the process behind it. CacoMallow leak is tangible and it always isn't confirmed real either, so it doesn't add much. I believe it's real, but that could also mean Geno is coming with Doomguy anyway, because that's simply when Sakurai and Square-Enix wanted to release it. The leak about Smithy is a completely different one(and wasn't that actually treated as fake anyway?). It's possible we could be getting Geno, Doomguy, Cacodemon, and Mallow in a different costume set together. It's not a popular opinion either. Before Banjo came along, I thought Costumes would hold some kind of tangible pattern, but then I realized we're trying to look too deeply into what it should be and not just realize that there is hardly one to begin with. Plans change overall.
Remember, we don't know what they're thinking about for reveals. They took forever to reveal Isaac and Shadow's AT, for no reason whatsoever we would know of. Shadow could be possibly cause they wanted to show off Knuckles first. They didn't even directly do more than cameo Ashley's AT either. She was just shown off during a reel of a few random ones. There is no clear pattern for reveals. There is no 4D Chess either. It's just whatever they think works at the time. And yes, Geno being held off a bit to renegotiate to add more music(like the ones in the 4 trailer) sounds actually pretty plausible at this point. Having to redo the licensing is a hard requirement to do something like this, which would force it to be pushed back. It's a lot more plausible than the completely bad power of six theory, though. Though to be frank, I don't know what they are thinking. I just don't see any reason to believe Hero was planned any differently to begin with. It became obvious that it was a DQ mini-direct far more than simply just Hero's information. It was constantly dedicated to it. These things are heavily planned out. And I still don't see how two non-DQ characters who could fit with anyone else since they're popular mascot Mii costumes must come with Hero's set, when that's just a personal opinion, not really something that was a clear factor. I wasn't even surprised after I watched the point behind the direct. Joker is the first one to not even be a very dedicated direct by a tiny thing. Hero, Banjo, and Terry had some pretty major directs dedicated to them. And every single one of them had a unique Mii costume set that didn't hold any real kind of straight pattern overall. If there was one, it was specific to each character at best anyway. Joker was pure Sega, Hero was pure Dragon Quest, Banjo had no actual pattern to it to begin with, and Terry focused on fighting game characters. That's how detached they are. Besides, Hero isn't the only thing against the bad power of six theory. I forgot the details as Eric pointed it out, though. Something about costumes being counted that should not be among the "six".
We are that lacking in information. Really really are. I wouldn't be surprised if Geno's base game stuff is all we're getting. I hope to hell I'm wrong, of course, but I do recognize the possibility because that's what the licensing could be. But that's the same reason I think he has a chance for post-pass, because he would be licensed for use again as a fully playable character. Keep in mind I do think his costume not coming with Banjo(the only time I think it was really fitting at this point, if not base game which is clear 3rd party mii costumes were meant for DLC only... which actually would mean they licensed them separately from base game??) does help his chances too. If he's post-pass, it would be decided well after regular DLC. As we did find out they chose to do more DLC after regular DLC was negotiated for. I forget when it was said. Something about it being a big success and they feel more DLC is a good idea. Now this is also why I think Geno might've been renegotiated for costume-wise. They actually had an idea for something like Banjo's timing, but Sans' costume was lucky to get music. I will admit this is unlikely either way and I am not holding onto it. But keep in mind with this said, Sakurai has learned he can do more and if he can't get Geno fully playable, he can attempt to get more out of SE, who has been really cooperative where possible this time around. It could be a case of "biting off more than they can chew." too. If Sakurai wants more out of the Geno costume, he'd have to renegotiate. I don't remember when it was confirmed Sans' costume even got negotiated for. That was possibly before the DQ-focused direct too. We lack details.
I won't go more into it, but I don't think it's anywhere as ridiculously simple as "he was intended to be with DQ" either. It's damn clear why it's those 4 costumes only. That's all Sakurai could get for it and he really wanted it to be DQ-related. He has a major passion for that series. Nothing really suggests SE wanted it either, so I wouldn't even put them up as the reason behind it. It's quite possible they all agreed to the idea due to how much they wanted to help the franchise be promoted.