So, I hope people have been paying attention to the arguments going on because it's exactly my point that Geno's perceived chances among insiders is a huge point of contention. This why it's so heavily split between "he's super obvious leak-bait" and "hmmm. There's something definitely going on here." That's why I have advised people to avoid opinions that are absolutes because I've seen the evidence behind the scenes and there's no strong evidence for any of SE characters. Everyone just has their own theories and that's a big reason why it's so spread out and the only thing people agree on is that there's like a 95% chance that Sora is not in.
On other topics:
On Dragon Quest's liscensing: I've seen the argument that Nintendo would just plow through it but if they didn't for the Mario Sports games, why would they here? Remember, Nintendo liscensed their characters to Square, not the other way around. I've mentioned this before but it bears repeating: Dragon Quest has never in its entirety of its history been liscensed out. Its only crossovers have been Final Fantasy and Mario and those games were internal meaning developed by SE. Yet another repeated point: DQ was never liscensed for the Wii or Wii U Virtual Console in any region nor the NES Classic or SNES Classic aside from a super limited Japanese exclusive version of the NES:
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/clvj/sp/index.html
Seriously though, look at Dragon Quest's liscensing here:
1986 ARMOR PROJECT / BIRD STUDIO / SPIKE CHUNSOFT / SQUARE ENIX All Rights Reserved
That's just for a single game for a special edition that Shonen Jump literally liscensed themselves. Holy Hell... That's no picnic. That's 3-5 times the work for a single IP that gamers outside Japan kind of shrug at and Smash fans in general DGAF if it's represented in Smash. It's not worth it.
On Sephiroth expanding Final Fantasy branding: I've seen the argument that Sephiroth's main purpose would be to bolster Final Fantasy's somewhat anemic presence in Smash Bros but the character doesn't do a good job it. He doesn't bring anything that Cloud doesn't already, which is why he's never appeared in a game that Cloud wasn't in. Cloud has been in several crossovers that Square Enix didn't develop. Sephiroth never has. Like Dragon Quest, he's never appeared in a game that Square Enix didn't develop. Ironically enough, Geno has... Thrice. It should also be noted that Sephiroth's only cameo on a Nintendo platform was one of the Final Fantasy spinoff music games where, again, he was following Cloud's lead.
Now, you might make the argument that Cloud's Nintendo cameos weren't great before Smash either but Cloud's distinctly the face of the Final Fantasy franchise. The same can't be said about Sephiroth, just as Bowser never subverts Mario or Ganon to Link. None of them appear without their respective hero in games, adding more to how Sephiroth is honestly less Final Fantasy branding and more Final Fantasy VII branding. Now, in regards to hypothetical Sephiroth DLC, we need a stage and music. Music would likely be the original and Advent Children versions of One Winged Angel. Stage would just be yet another FF VII stage. See the problem? It's saturation, not expansion. If the goal is to call to light a series that has 15 mainline games, this isn't doing a good job.
Sephiroth also breaks a lot of fanmade rules but, as we've dictated, there's logic behind them. No third party franchise has more than one totally original character. Again, it prevents oversaturation of third party properties. Ryu and Ken are like Mario and Luigi and the Belmonts are literally family and play similarly between games. In a sense, Ken compliments Ryu presence as the icon of Street Fighter. Richter does the same for Simon.
This concept can even be extended to first and second party franchises throughout Smash history. Back in the day, Roy did this with Marth because Fire Emblem was already pushing it's luck being a Japanese exclusive. Star Fox was two games in Melee. Mother was 3 with two Japanese exclusives in Brawl. There's definitely purpose in this.
Then comes stages. No third party franchise aside from Sonic has more than one original stage. Why? Because Classic vs Modern is a literal gameplay distinction in the Sonic franchise and you have one representing each. Classic Megaman having a Megaman X stage wouldn't make sense and neither would Sephiroth having anything outside of Final Fantasy VII. Again, ignoring these rules creates super concentration and notably playing favorites in a big way.
This all said, why would they do this for Sephiroth? As I said before, he's literally had one cameo on a Nintendo platform. He's not the star, the star's already in, so why would they go to extreme lengths for special treatment for him, especially since it's Nintendo's game, not Square's? The furthest they've pushed the envelope with any third party character in Smash is Bayonetta and they did it because of the extreme global fan demand. That doesn't exist here.
As mentioned yesterday, Sephiroth isn't even a second thought for most Smash fans, he's like fourth or fifth. Bottom line is that Sephiroth requires a simply profound amount of catering to be implemented into Smash and we haven't even touched on probable balancing issues. This is why "he's an iconic villain" and "he expands Final Fantasy's prescence in Smash" are not good arguments.
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