Ok ok, I think a
lot of people don't think the Fighter's Pass will be the definitive end to character inclusions in Ultimate. But if that's the case, when would they stop adding characters? I think Nintendo plans on supporting the Switch at least up until 2022, but the next console we get may very well be something along the lines of a Switch "pro".
Personally, I think they'd stop adding characters at the very latest 2021. I think the next Smash game will probably come out between '23 and '26, and I personally feel like '25 is most likely considering how successful Ultimate is as of late, and how hard it would be to top in roster size (especially if they don't work with Bamco next time around). Naturally, to keep the competitive and casual scenes alive, I think we'll be getting our fair share of characters for years to come, and I firmly believe that the thirty character slots solidifies that they plan on supporting Ultimate for a while (or a character with a lot of alts like Bowser Jr. is soon to come). Obviously not 30 slots worth of newcomers, but a common practice in big companies is to have an overabundance of slots for things they may potentially add in the future (I worded that horribly, but you get my point).
Now this all sounds incredibly off topic, but like Fatmanonice said, this looks good on Geno's behalf. If Nintendo really wants to include more DLC after the Fighter's Pass in the future while continuing to present tempting offers that will reel in a lot of money, it's almost as if not including Geno would be a missed opportunity. Definitely not a sight for the casual eye, but then again, is Joker? Again, this all sounds really far-fetched, as with most speculation in this community, but even from an unbiased perspective, let it sink in. First and foremost, Nintendo would already guarantee purchases from completionists, and on top of that, Geno has among the largest followings in the Smash community, so I'd say the vast majority of his supporters would buy it. What's more, casual bandwagoners are also likely to purchase him. The rights to Geno are obviously very expensive, but I really think they'll make a decent profit for what it's worth.
But of course, we have counterpoints:
Other massive support groups whose characters are less expensive to get ahold of seem more probable profit-wise than Geno. Further, Geno's costliness is a major setback that even smaller support groups may have an advantage just for being cheaper.
To end off an a positive note, however, Geno would irrefutably garner truckloads of money Nintendo's way. Fan favorite, original, Sakurai bias, Nintendo seemingluand the very likely many years of Smash Ultimate DLC to come may be enough just this once to pave our way to victory.
So then... why did we only get Geno and Mallow spirits + a Geno icon? Why that hefty price for just those little bits?
Hm. I don't know what to make of this. Just thought I'd lay it on the table.
Imo it's the fans. Like many people have noted, Nintendo is listening more to us than ever before (or at least, quite some time), so the hefty price they paid could easily just be consolation prizes for our efforts throughout the years. Of course, it does strike me as odd, but afaik it'd be more expensive to include Geno as a fighter than a spirit, and while Nintendo is hearing our voices more, they were still unwilling to pay for an entire character slot.