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Okay, so think of it this way.I disagree. I seriously doubt Steve was 9 unless it was a Game Awards reveal or something. You don't reveal the biggest character in gaming in a standard Nintendo Direct.
I think what you're not accounting for is the fact that Smash Ultimate DLC development may have always planned to slow down a bit, and that's why Steve wasn't started until March
so I just realized something.... we know/believe Byleth was always going to be in the game (presumably was supposed to be in base game), we know Steve had been in negotiations for years, an arms character had been considered for base game but got delayed, etc etc.My expectations are off the charts, and I know I shouldn't hype too hard about this...but it is some of our best speculation info yet.
No matter what, always believe that GENO IS IN!
What if talks for Geno began way back when Cloud was negotiated, and Square Enix was like "Put Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest in, and then we can talk about Geno". The possibilities are endless.so I just realized something.... we know/believe Byleth was always going to be in the game (presumably was supposed to be in base game), we know Steve had been in negotiations for years, an arms character had been considered for base game but got delayed, etc etc.
what if a lot of these dlc characters are characters they had planned for months/years
Considering what we know about when Byleth and Min Min where originally supposed to be announced and released, it really doesn't look that crunchy.The “minecon theory” makes even less sense it you try to push Steve to 9. That implies 8 wouldve been revealed and released before october and 9 wouldve been revealed the very next month. That’s incredibly crunchy considering Terry was november last year
Wow, that's even worse.Looked into it and Japan didn't declare a state of emergency until early April:
Shortly after the announcement that the 2020 Summer Olympics would be delayed until Summer 2021, the Japanese government on April 7 announced a state...www.jdsupra.com
This was also around the time working from home became standard. I feel like this is the time period that has come to define the "pandemic" and when it started to most seriously affect daily Japanese life.
except I acknowledged Japan’s state of emergency announcement in april like two posts ago? Are you guys even reading my posts?Wow, that's even worse.
Steve was never planned for E3, guys.
Yeah, ultimately we'll never really know. All that matters, like you said, is that Geno gets in.I meant release, but really, i’m kind of done arguing about this already. Swap theories are always going to be extremely contentious regardless of the evidence that goes this or that way. All that matters is that Geno is still incredibly likely, if not the next character.
Perhaps it was just meant to be just Geno only though, maybe only show Steve as a trailer and that’s it if he was Fighter 8.I dunno if I'm totally on board with this "Steve was CP9" line of thought, but if it's true I have to wonder, if not Steve, then who the actual **** did they plan to show off at E3?
I don't think it was 5 Years of Straight negotiating. It seemed the biggest issue with Steve and why he wasn't in Smash Intially was because of Implmentation issues. They probably talked to Microsoft and Mojiang during the DLC years of Smash 4, Base roster decision for Ultimate, and FP1 Decision for Ultimate, before Finally Figuring out how to Implement Steve, but there was probably alot of Dead Air in between each period,The thing I never got though is how in the hell did it take five years for Steve to be negotiated for? That almost feels like Sora-levels of negotiation.
I could totally see Steve originally being 8 and Geno or whoever else it might be being 7. Steve being 9 and missing out on E3 is a possibility I suppose.Perhaps it was just meant to be just Geno only though, maybe only show Steve as a trailer and that’s it if he was Fighter 8.
Steve was definitely planned to be released around Minecraft Festival/Minecraft Live. Then this pandemic happened, which moved him to second character in Pass 2.There's a level of...just...straight up mind****ery that I can't even...
I mean the idea of "okay this character requires us to basically redesign all the stages at a functional level to account for his mechanics to properly work" means he should have been pushed back right? That's a rational thought and a solid plan.
GUY WHO DEMANDS EVERY STAGE BE BASICALLY RECREATED ON A PROGRAMMING LEVEL <-- yeah let's move him forward?
THE HELL KINDA DECISION MAKING IS THAT!?!?
Hopefully he'd be released before my birthday, which is exactly 2 weeks before Christmas.The plays tho. If Geno was in fact #77, and was supposed to be the Summer 2020 Challenger Pack, him potentially being moved for Winter 2020 (Christmas) is genius; perfect gift.
Nintendo wise?What was going on in 2019? A pre-COVID world was a glorious world in my opinion.
More like Sakurai's Neverending Downward Spiral, am I right?Yep. We are in Sakurai's Infinite Tsukuyomi.
We shall dub this "The Perfect Timeline".Jesus, I leave the thread for two-ish days and this happens? Man, maybe I should leave the thread more often! Anyways, this has turned out to be some pretty juicy info, and it really recontexualizes all the Genoposting by insiders around July, as well as that Gamestop video. If any of this hold any weight, I imagine the timeline could've been:
- Geno is announced for Smash at E3.
- Gamestop add is released, no contradiction to be found.
- Geno is released on July 7th, same day as the Star Festival.
- Super Mario RPG is released on NSO.
- World Peace is established.
More like Sakurai's Neverending Downward Spiral, am I right?
The fact we're probably so close now is something else. My 7 month Geno journey doesn't compare to the 25 YEARS some of you have waited, but it has been a wild ride for me.Hey guys I cleaned up all of the gray matter that leaked out of my ears. I think I can give a rational response to this theo- oh nope my brain’s melting again
A lot of people were confused by this new theory so I took it upon myself to make a very in depth explanation using some of the information you guys collected. I probably missed some stuff but I’m tired so this is all I could scrounge up before shattering into a thousand pieces. I hope this is helpful!
Let’s just... Start simple here. I think we can all agree that the pandemic caused some delays for Smash. Sakurai has stated in several interviews that development was impacted pretty heavily by COVID-19. Employees needed equipment so they could work from home, playtesting became a lot harder, and meeting with different publishers also became a much more difficult task.
I think we can also all agree that Min Min was most likely planned to be #76. It’s whether or not she was meant to be released in June or not is where things get tricky. Min Min was most likely midway-almost finished with development by the time the pandemic hit. All of the immediate obstacles caused by the virus most likely pushed Min Min at least a month or two back, right? It’s still up in the air, but I personally think Min Min was planned to be revealed and released in April.
According to Sakurai, Steve was developed entirely during the pandemic. While we don’t have an initial start date per se, we at least have a basic timeframe for Steve’s development. I personally think he started development around April, the same time Min Min would’ve been planned to release in my previous assumption.
Steve, as a character, looks like he would’ve been a logistical nightmare to develop. And judging from what was said in Steve’s “Sakurai Presents” video, that is most likely true. Add on the COVID-19 related development hurtles and some other miscellaneous things (IP negotiations, three different language barriers to cross, etc.) and you have a recipe for a hellish character development cycle.
Alright, recap time:
- Min Min’s release was likely delayed a month or two back due to COVID-19 issues.
- Steve probably started development sometime around April (The same month Japan declared a state of emergency), pretty soon after Min Min’s original planned release date.
- Steve ended up taking way longer to develop then expected due to a bunch of different circumstances.
Okay cool, so why do we think Steve was swapped with another character? The answer lies in the timing of character reveals.If we put together some of my previous assumptions and a basic roadmap of a non-Corona Virus Smash DLC reveal/release schedule, we end up with some interesting results:
- Min Min was going to be revealed in an early 2020 Nintendo Direct. She would later be released in mid-late April of 2020.
- Character #77 was going to be revealed at E3 2020. They would be released sometime in late summer, very similar to how Hero was handled.
- Character #78 was also going to be revealed at E3 2020. They would be released sometime in late September/early October, similar to how Banjo and Kazooie was handled (albeit somewhat later).
If we look at this roadmap, it would make the most sense for Steve to be revealed as character #78. He’s a very complex character and thus requires a lot more development time. It also lines up with the coinciding Minecon date (Assuming that wasn’t changed due to COVID-19). Character #77 would’ve been someone else, a character not as demanding to develop as #78.
However, we sadly do not live in a non-Corona Virus world. With all of the development hurdles Steve would face, a decision was most likely made to swap fighter #77 and #78. This way, Steve would have a lot more time for development and he could be released around the same time as his originally planned release date.
So... Who was fighter #77 going to be then?That’s everything. November/December here we come babey!!Hey... Take a look at the name of this thread. You see it? You know who I’m about to say. That’s right, fighter #77 was originally supposed to be the 7-Up mascot Cool Spot!
...Okay fine it’s Geno.
There’s a bunch of reasons why I think he’s gonna be in the game period, but I have a couple reasons as to why I think he was supposed to be #77:
- Insiders were teasing a bunch of things related to Geno back in July. Insiders aren’t exactly privy to the most extensive and current information about Smash DLC possible (And should not be expected to), so it stands to reason they got some information incorrect about fighter #77’s identity, especially if the characters were swapped early on.
- That Mario 35th anniversary Smash tournament being announced for November/December seems mighty suspicious now. Especially if you take into account the idea that both the original Fighter #77 and the Mario 35th anniversary celebration were delayed due to Covid-19.
- Small stuff like the Gamestop advert, alongside plenty of other things from the mountain of other evidence we have pointing towards Geno getting in Smash.
It's been from two to five years for me (definitely 5 years for Steve though), I don't know how long I've wanted Geno.The fact we're probably so close now is something else. My 7 month Geno journey doesn't compare to the 25 YEARS some of you have waited, but it has been a wild ride for me.
I hope Geno is in before we hit page 4,000!Oh, I didn't realise this thread was so close to reaching the 3500 page milestone; congrats everyone!
Not gonna lie, i'm just really tired of waiting for Geno's reveal at this point. He's happening, but who knows where they decided to slot him into the pass. Hopefully we won't be waiting until late 2021 for him, and he'll be CP8 or CP9.
No no no and noSlightly off-topic, but did any of you hear of the Fortnite Smash rumors tonight? Basically it was a rumored interview where the (I think) designer [EDIT: David Mustard] of Fortnite said something big for Fortnite will be shown at The Game Awards and went on to say "no comment" when asked about Fortnite content in Smash.
If this is true and means what I think it could possibly mean...we might have a longer wait for Geno.
The thing is though...if the Fortnite thing at TGA really is for Smash...they're not going to hype up a Fortnite Mii costume and that just be it.No no no and no
It was the same wording Suda used for Travis, which ended up with a Mii costume
Usually people under big NDAs try to deflect and deny instead of saying "no comment"
If somehow Nintendo really does hate us and we get a Fortnite character in Smash, I'm just going to give up
Do you have a link to this interview ?Slightly off-topic, but did any of you hear of the Fortnite Smash rumors tonight? Basically it was a rumored interview where the (I think) designer [EDIT: David Mustard] of Fortnite said something big for Fortnite will be shown at The Game Awards and went on to say "no comment" when asked about Fortnite content in Smash.
If this is true and means what I think it could possibly mean...we might have a longer wait for Geno.