I still think we're getting a new protag from a 2021 first party game in Smash. Nintendo likes ending of their fighter lineups with some of their newer characters, and that has been decently consistent since Smash 4.
Smash 4 had the reveals of Robin/Lucina/Shulk placed near the end. The DLC had Corrin who had just released in Japan earlier in the year, and not even out yet for the West. Smash Ultimate put Isabelle and Incineroar near the end, sure Isabelle was kinda old but still pretty new comparitively, Incineroar was the "newest" character to get in (debuted in late 2016, and we know that the plan for the base game was done FAR ahead of time). Fighters Pass 1 ended with Byleth who just debuted up in the last 6 months of FP 1, very similar to the timeframe of Corrin.
COVID may mess up things but I feel confident that a main character that first shows up in mid-late 2021 will probably finish off the next pass.
Currently leaning towards:
- Min Min
- Steve
- Dante/Lloyd
- Geno
- Ryu Hayabusa
- 2021 Protagonist (XC 3 or something else GS/Fire Emblem etc)
You're missing the point. We've established that things can take years to pan out. If they were already planning stuff for Ultimate as far out as the second DLC Season in 2015, why not Geno and Lloyd? I'm not arguing that they were locked in development or negotiations for this long, I'm saying they very well could have been decided back then and it's a matter of timing.
On the topic of Monster Hunter, Imran Khan had this to say:
People like me and Forsaken have been arguing this forever but now the guy who has now known every single DLC character has said it. With how things have gone down, I wouldn't be surprised if the Monster Hunter costumes came with Lloyd.
Simply because they aren't this massive multimedia franchise like Minecraft? Let's be honest in terms of $$$ it's a lot less lucrative to plan far ahead for the likes of Lloyd or Geno, than it is Steve and Minecraft.
There's also really no evidence suggesting that Geno and Lloyd
were planned that far ahead. The possibility merely exists, but the way you're talking makes it sound like they were planned far ahead. But again, at that point why don't we bring in literally every Smash character that has had some solid rumors since 5 years ago; because that list goes WAY beyond just Lloyd and Geno.
And yeah I know what Imran said about MH, I'm just stating if they really are planning 5 years ahead of time, like you are suggesting; there's nothing stopping them from adding in Rathalos base and then spirits and a fighter 3 years later with the whole new gimmick from the newest Switch game. I doubt Imran knows the entirety of the Fighters Pass anyways, as he has said that he didn't know if a Dragon Quest character would be in Smash Ultimate like a week before DQ was shown in Smash Ultimate
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15:06 for DQ in Smash talks. He said there may be content, but unsure about a character making it.
So it's pretty clear that an insider like Imran Khan may hear about some DLC a week or so ahead of time; but may not hear about literally everything happening in terms of Smash far ahead of time. Judging by his phrasing, I'm more than willing to bet that those are his own speculations on a potential MH character and not a "MH is 100% not in". I don't even think MH is a lock (I'm still predicting Dante) but Imran doesn't know every fighter just because he's a good insider.
If we go by taking Imran's comments very seriously; he has said ON multiple occasions that he thinks this pass will be filled with evergreen titles on the Switch that'll be easy to bring back and keep on selling steadily. He said this pass will primarily have first party characters because they don't cost as much to license, and they can ensure that they bring them back. One of these times was with the Min Min hint post, sure; but he's said the same thought on Resetera before the hint. And so far, both Min Min and Steve fit pretty well with the "evergreen" description. You could take this as something that hurts Geno and Lloyd too, because no way they'd be "evergreen" characters. On top of all that he's talked about Paper Mario getting in back in July; "because Paper Mario would break a fan-rule, like most other DLC characters". So literally his own words could be used against Geno and Lloyd too.
Most of what Imran Khan says are his own speculations, we can't really expect him to be knowledgeable of things that'll happen in a year or so. Is it worth listening to what he's saying, sure; but he isn't a end all be all. He likely only knows Smash DLC a couple weeks ahead at most.