The only ones they’d make money off of? We’ve got nothing to remotely prove that other than some major guesswork. Like that takes lots of leaps in saying we know how these major companies would operate in specific ways to make such a claim. Plus any in-house Square character would then theoretically under this model be as profitable as Geno or Mallow. Saying they’re the only profitable Square characters for Nintendo is way too big of a leap to make.
I have this same attitude with Banjo, who I’ve also never found super likely. Dealing with a third party means you’re playing with such different rules that trying to assume what that means in each individual context just shouldn’t be done. There’s just way too much nuance that we’ll never even see unless Sakurai tells us directly and even then, he’s not the one steering this ship completely with regards to DLC.
As for Kingdom Hearts being on a competitor’s console right now and not having appeared in recent memory... isn’t that using relevancy against Sora when talking about Geno a little bit? And doesn’t Cloud make short work of this argument too seeing as a Final Fantasy VII Remake wasn’t even announced to have relations to Nintendo when he came out? Plus it’s a character get for Nintendo while advertising something Square can make money off of both with Nintendo’s deal and increased exposure to Kingdom Hearts in general, which would probably be the biggest win in general for them while still giving Nintendo a serious win too.
Look, I know there’s this idea here that Sora isn’t a good idea for Smash, but he’d definitely be a recognizable enough character for people to buy or trust the Fighters Pass with. I don’t know where this notion of Geno being such an important show of faith that Sora couldn’t possibly be, but I seriously think he could be just as notable and encouraging. I hate to say it, but most of us big Smash fans who comprise the more core lineup of requests are going to probably buy the DLC anyway. I know that doesn’t necessarily apply to everyone, but there’s an increased chance that we’ll either buy it because we’re getting more Smash content in the form of characters and stages, or that how sakurai interprets a character will convince us enough of things we otherwise didn’t know we wanted.
In short, we’re one of the demographics with the least need of convincing for the Fighters Pass. Maybe not specifically “us” as Geno supporters in this thread, but the “us” of collective posters on the internet and are more likely to be in threads voting in these big polls most of the time.
I just think the first point is assuming too much and I disagree that the advertising playing into Square’s advantage elsewhere is such a big strike against him. And also disagree on the point that Geno is necessary to instill confidence in a Fighter Pass that is likely to sell anyway and I’m convinced there are other options from Square that will drum up hype for the DLC season. And this isn’t just Sora either, some crazy left field picks could just as easily excite the community cause honestly we’re a pretty excitable community by nature and we love to accept characters once we see them in action. I highly doubt that will change with DLC.
I still lean about 70% in favor of us getting Geno just because I do agree there are things pointing in his favor and he should conceivably be an easy win. I just don’t know if I agree with the broader assumptions you’re making about costs and mindsets of both Nintendo and fellow Smash consumers. Geno being an easy win doesn’t necessarily mean much though, we’ve had easier wins before and still seen nothing of them (Shadow and Isaac will forever be the two that come to mind).
As for a point on the holy trinity. I’d disagree on the consistency of it until Ultimate. The minute Mewtwo got dropped from Brawl he dominated the third slot of speculation. I quite well remember the expectations for the trio of Mewtwo, Ridley, and King K Rool for Smash 4 and how often those three were sighted as a place of disappointment upon Smash 4’s release. I’d also contend initially King K Rool didn’t have the popularity until a post Diddy world, so he didn’t really pick up steam until probably Smash 4. Ridley and Geno had support pre-Brawl. And Geno also really struggled during the Smash 4 speculation scene.
I will agree that they were the three of the old guard of requests coming into Ultimate with Isaac as a close fourth. They were the most notable requests with a longer history of fan demand dating back to Brawl. So they became a defacto trinity in that sense. I don’t know if the trinity is nearly as reliable as people make it out to be as I mentioned before though.