Forgive me for using your post as a trampoline, but I've needed a jumping-off point for a while. A Gen 8 Pokemon and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 characters are
definitely not going to happen.
Spirits, and assist trophies, originally existed to fill the hole of characters who should be represented but weren't prioritized as fighters at the time. All spirit / AT upgrades would definitely come as a result of changing mindsets. Sakurai made it clear that Springman was in contention, but every trophy / spirit faces an uphill battle.
Rumor has it,
Fatmanonice
and
@papagenos can back me up here, that paid DLC content are the only dead characters. Rex is completely dead. He was a $20 paid DLC Mii outfit. To add on, the Xenoblade franchise has begun moving on from the Xenoblade 2 cast. Even Torna basically did away with Rex / Pyra. This doesn't kill a Gen 8 Pokemon, but Fighter's Pass 2 has been in discussions since the beginning of the first. They would've finalized the pass long before Sword and Shield came out. The plans for Cinderace / Toxtricity would've been made long before those spirits. If Pokemon was getting a character, it would've been handled exactly as Three Houses was. It's arguable that the team could've changed their minds on Resident Evil or Astral Chain. The Pokemon spirits are far too recent. As for "well why aren't the final evolutions spirits?" They weren't announced at the time of the event.
Since this was brought up, let me just say my thoughts.
Yes, Pokemon already got a spirit event; but it's still within the realm of possibility to get a fighter. Now I do think the spirit event definitely hurts it's chances, but Pokemon is one of the few series where spirits are super abundant and easy to make. They could literally do a Crown Tundra themed spirit event to go with a potential Smash DLC. It's different than lets say Resident Evil literally spiriting all their most popular protagonists away. Besides
not putting in a spirit event would have been seen as
extremely suspicious, and after Byleth people would automatically think Pokemon is definitely getting a character (if it is).
Besides saying Pokemon is not happening, while RE and Astral are arguable doesn't work because those spirits came out after the Pokemon ones.
And the justification for explaining why Rex is dead is not good. If you actually look at the timeline, Rex was pretty much a base game mii costume that was pushed to the role of being a preorder bonus, in fact I wouldn't be surprised if he was a costume before the fighters pass was even a thing. We literally have Nia who is a base game costume for free, and it's not like you can buy Rex like the other Mii costumes; you're spending that money for a pass not Rex. He's pretty much a spirit with a mii costume in base game and should be treated as such.
And Rex wasn't in Torna because that game was literally set more than a 100 years before he was born, but even then him and Pyra had a cameo at the end. Shulk/Elma also got added into Xenoblade 2 as DLC characters; they could always just end up doing that in future Xeno games (have previous characters cameo, something like Tales does with the secret bosses).
So while Pokemon is
debatable, Rex is pretty much fair game.
- His mii costume was pretty much just pushed from base game in order to make a bonus for FP1.
- Both Future Connected and Torna: The Golden Country have had 0 spirit events. On top of this XC2 is also missing spirits for a ton of major characters
outside of the main party. They've put in spirits for Octopath Traveler, which means that they aren't against putting in spirit events of games that came out
before Smash.
- Sakurai wanted him in.
- In Japan, he's usually one of the highest requests for a character (top 3). He does decently well in the West still too. A lot of people want to see Pyra and Mythra too, which Rex easily incorporates into his kits. Just look at the Japanese Smash twitter for proof, every time Pyra and Mythra's spirits get featured in a spirit event, they consistently get the most likes and usually it's by a huge margin. For example, in the "crowns" spirit event Peach got slightly under 1000 likes while Pyra and Mythra were both hovering around 2k. So Nintendo definitely notices this.
- He isn't in copyright limbo and is first party.
- There are a ton of iconic songs from XC 2 missing.
- He has stage and moveset potential, unique gimmick could be special cancelling or switching between Pyra/Mythra.
- He may make appearances in future games, like Shulk/Elma in XC 2.
- Nintendo and Monolith Soft have both said they want to make Xenoblade bigger.
Honestly, I'd say Rex is the most likely DLC character by far; he'd be the only character that I'd be shocked if he doesn't make it in. The only way I see him
not getting in is if
another Xenoblade character gets in, instead; and the chances for that are low. Unless XC: DE is getting DLC the best chance of someone like Melia or Fiora getting in would be on Monday, if they don't show up then; they are pretty much dead in the water because they lose their "promotional" advantage, and they aren't as popular as Rex and Pyra on top of XC 1 already having a character. The only other potential representative of Xenoblade would be a Xenoblade 3 character, which is technically possible if it gets released next year OR Elma if XCX remastered comes next year.
So yeah, I think another Xenoblade character is 99% happening (and that is the only series/character I feel this way about), and Rex is the most likely one by
far. Although personally I would prefer someone else.
EDIT: And on top of all of this, even if you've bought the entirety of Smash DLC separately. You still don't get the Rex mii costume (you'd still have to spend $20 on getting the pass just for Rex). Keep in mind, that originally the mii costume was an "apology" for not making Rex playable, because they would have been definitely playable if it wasn't for time constraints. By keeping the mii costume locked even if you buy all the DLC separately, it makes me think that they have something else in the future planned for Rex.