Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[Vector Victor]

Remember when the AT couldn't be disabled cause the character is there?

While it's just due to a Mii costume, this is how the Spring Man's battle is treated. They used the representation of him via the Mii, and made sure Spring Man cannot spawn as an AT because the "character" is there.

This is why the argument that they can't disable the AT makes no sense. There's debates on whether a Springtron change is plausible(Honestly, I don't believe he has a chance outside of a Spring Man alt), but it's pretty clear these kind of things are not an issue.

Spirits/AT's, they're variables that they can change up if needed. Spring Man just needs the ARMS prefix and there's no issues. At most they can use Spring Man as the character during the Spirit Battle instead of the costume. They could also have it as the costume if you play as Spring Man too. And vice versa. There's so many ways to change it up it's hilarious.

They could even go so far as just scrapping Springman's AT altogether if he's the character, like what they did with Ljttle Mac and Dark Samus. Let's pretend pass 2 as the next Smash game. Perhaps that is how they would approach the characters for it.

'Yes, pass 1 was made with Ultimate in mind so there were restrictions, but pass 2 was far enough from Ultimate's development that its being treated as its own entity, so everything is on the table.'

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

They could even go so far as just scrapping Springman's AT altogether if he's the character, like what they did with Ljttle Mac and Dark Samus. Let's pretend pass 2 as the next Smash game. Perhaps that is how they would approach the characters for it.

That would be a huge waste of data for nothing. They worked hard on it. Disabling it here and there is a lot easier programming and doesn't put their hard work to waste. They put a lot into that one AT, as it has a ton of animation and moves. They already literally have a coding to disable it in a certain circumstance. You just throw in a few more lines/wording, and the problem is resolved.

Pass 2 is just an addition to one game. It's not an all-new game to begin with. Also, those guys were removed as AT's because they were added along with all the AT's in general at once. Base game was decided by 2015 in itself. This includes full characters(Echoes and all). It made sense why there was no AT for it by that point.

...Though to be frank, Dark Samus' and Isabelle's AT should've stayed in the game but be disabled when the character is played as(same with Charizard and Little Mac). They're all amazing AT's and amazing playable characters. You don't need "one or the other" whatsoever. You can be an assist and playable within the same game. Fighting games have done this before, including Pokken, so it's not really an issue.

'Yes, pass 1 was made with Ultimate in mind so there were restrictions, but pass 2 was far enough from Ultimate's development that its being treated as its own entity, so everything is on the table.'

Don't need to scrap anything already in-game to accomplish that, really~

 

[Staarih]

They could even go so far as just scrapping Springman's AT altogether if he's the character, like what they did with Ljttle Mac and Dark Samus. Let's pretend pass 2 as the next Smash game. Perhaps that is how they would approach the characters for it.

'Yes, pass 1 was made with Ultimate in mind so there were restrictions, but pass 2 was far enough from Ultimate's development that its being treated as its own entity, so everything is on the table.'

Not everyone buys the DLC though, so the AT should be in at least for those who don't get the Fighter's Pass (assuming the character is Spring Man). A code string or something for the AT not appearing when the character is on stage would seem like the easiest option.

 

[Dukefire]

They could replace Springman with Springtron should the former AT character becomes a full fledged fighter

 

[SSGuy]

Not everyone buys the DLC though, so the AT should be in at least for those who don't get the Fighter's Pass (assuming the character is Spring Man). A code string or something for the AT not appearing when the character is on stage would seem like the easiest option.

Similar to how certain ATs can be toggled off for specific stages. (Knuckles at Green Hill Zone and Alucard at Wii Fit)

 

[Loliko YnT]

My mindset is that the ARMS characters will be revealed and released and June , unless Sakurai litteraly tell us "Sorry fam , it's next month".
And since Sakurai said numerous time that development was going smoothly , I doubt any kind of delay. Heck... Did everyone forget that JUNE was the delay ? They're not gonna double dip again , unless this characters is completely glitched out or something.

Also , at this point , I think it's next week.
It was problematic if Smash overshadow the Pokemon DLC because it released this month. When it come to announcing a game , especially a BIG PROJECT , it's not going to release now. They're going to have months and months to hype it up. So yeah , Smash is gonna take the spotlight for like , 2 weeks , and then Pokemon is free again.

Or maybe they just don't care because while both companies are tied to Nintendo , Gamefreaks and Sora Limited/Bamco are different entities and different development teams.

Anyway , have some fan-art to lighten up the mood :

Mario RPG on the brain pic.twitter.com/2rq4BUpfer

— AJB (@Berardbro) June 17, 2020

 

[TTF]

They could replace Springman with Springtron should the former AT character becomes a full fledged fighter

That's been my main thought on it. If it's Spring Man then either they can do a reskin with Springtron or just remove his Assist Trophy altogether.
And if the character's someone already with a Spirit, then who's to say they can't use their Ultimate render or another official render as their main character Spirit?

 

[Enigma735]

At this point, I am 100% sure that we are getting the ARMS character next week. The reason why I don't think it will be this week is because I highly doubt Nintendo would want to overshadow the Pokemon news, and Nintendo is the type of company to give certain games the spotlight for a little bit until moving to the next game to give the spotlight too. This week I feel is Pokemon's time to shine, but next week I am sure it will finally be time for Smash news.

Also, I doubt they would delay the character again without letting us know beforehand. Next week is the absolute perfect time to release this fighter and like I and many others have stated, revealing CP7 as well.

 

[Dukefire]

before the whistle blows to call time for the next week, we still got tonight for anymore news from Japan.

 

[TheCJBrine]

They could replace Springman with Springtron should the former AT character becomes a full fledged fighter

It's possible Spring Man could still be the AT, too, just he won't appear as one if already on the field as a fighter.

Would be funny if the AT would still appear, though. Gives the player an advantage against opponents who may get confused and go for the AT

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Springtron would be the most obvious alt for Spring Man, so that idea wouldn't work either.

...You know what works and they do a lot? Disable the AT. Sometimes there's no need to have a replacement. Next game, sure, add somebody else in his place. This game, though? There's no point in doing that extra work for no benefit. It takes a lot of time to re-rig a lot of animations here.

 

[Enigma735]

Honestly, I could very well see Sakurai say f*** it and leave the Spring Man assist trophy as it is and disabling it when Spring Man is being played with. I really don't think Nintendo cares about "weird paradoxes" as people think they do. Just look at Super Mario Galaxy, for instance. Luigi is both a playable character and an NPC. When playing with Luigi, you can literally talk to the NPC Luigi and even save that Luigi in the Luigi levels. If they can do something like this in SMG, then I am sure Sakurai would do something like this in Smash as well.

 

[Trevenant]

At this point, I am 100% sure that we are getting the ARMS character next week. The reason why I don't think it will be this week is because I highly doubt Nintendo would want to overshadow the Pokemon news, and Nintendo is the type of company to give certain games the spotlight for a little bit until moving to the next game to give the spotlight too. This week I feel is Pokemon's time to shine, but next week I am sure it will finally be time for Smash news.

Also, I doubt they would delay the character again without letting us know beforehand. Next week is the absolute perfect time to release this fighter and like I and many others have stated, revealing CP7 as well.

Tbh if it wasn't this week because of the Pokemon news, by that train of thought it can't be next week as there is more stuff coming then too.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Tbh if it wasn't this week because of the Pokemon news, by that train of thought it can't be next week as there is more stuff coming then too.

Not specifically Pokemon news alone, but it was also a specific major Pokemon DLC dropping this week. It makes sense to reveal and drop the Smash stuff in a different week itself.

Simply revealing Pokemon stuff wasn't a big deal.

 

[Trevenant]

Not specifically Pokemon news alone, but it was also a specific major Pokemon DLC dropping this week. It makes sense to reveal and drop the Smash stuff in a different week itself.

Simply revealing Pokemon stuff wasn't a big deal.

I more so meant how the user solely mentioned that the Pokemon news was what they wouldn't want to be overshadowed. Either way I know if it was because of anything it was the DLC

 

[Let Geno Smash]

Honestly, I could very well see Sakurai say f*** it and leave the Spring Man assist trophy as it is and disabling it when Spring Man is being played with. I really don't think Nintendo cares about "weird paradoxes" as people think they do. Just look at Super Mario Galaxy, for instance. Luigi is both a playable character and an NPC. When playing with Luigi, you can literally talk to the NPC Luigi and even save that Luigi in the Luigi levels. If they can do something like this in SMG, then I am sure Sakurai would do something like this in Smash as well.

Or the Knucles AT on Green Hill, the Alucard AT in Fountain of Dream and the Wii fit Stage or the Toon Link on Spirits Tracks

 

[EmeraldNate]

They could replace Springman with Springtron should the former AT character becomes a full fledged fighter

If Springman is the ARMS rep that we get, this is what I thought would definitely happen. It could either be this or disabling his assist trophy when he's in game.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Hello everyone!

Long time no see, just decided to pop in. I've been pretty out of the loop in terms of Smash speculation and upcoming content, I'm only aware that an ARMS character is coming.

By the way... are we getting an E3-esque Nintendo Direct this month? I've noticed that Nintendo has been pretty quiet this year outside of brand-specific directs, I was wondering if anyone had any updates on what's going on?

Looking forward to lurking this thread and talking to you guys!

 

[Firox]

INTERNET COMMENT OF THE DAY, COURTESY OF IGN:

"I don't get the hype about Pokemon Snap 2. What else is there to do besides take pictures of Pokemon?"

"You can also throw apples and tear gas at them."

"Oooooh, now I get it!"

 

[Terry Badguy]

I'll never understand why AT are such a problem in a game where 8 Marios can fight each other...

 

[Vector Victor]

I'll never understand why AT are such a problem in a game where 8 Marios can fight each other...

Heck, Mario vs Dr Mario.

 

[Firox]

Heck, Mario vs Dr Mario.

Those Marios are completely different!......one went to medical school....allegedly...

 

[Sigran101]

Heck, Mario vs Dr Mario.

Samus versus zero suit, shiek versus Zelda, Robin's final smash versus Chrom, etcetera etcetera.

 

[TTF]

Those Marios are completely different!......one went to medical school....allegedly...

My personal Smash Bros head canon is that Dr. Mario is a third Mario Brother.

 

[Enigma735]

In speaking of Spirit upgrades, one thing I never heard people talk about is the fact that assist trophy and Pokeball characters have Spirits, yet they can spawn while your fighting the "Spirit". If they can do that with assist trophies, I am sure they can do that for actual characters as well.

 

[QQS]

So I made this 60 pictures of Most Wanted/Likely Characters to appear.

Of course my (and our) most wanted is Geno. Then I just put the people I hear most and some others I would like to see.

Scorpion is mixed with Sub Zero cause I think it if happens, it would be a Ryu/Ken situation. About Pokemon, Urshifu would come the 2 in the same slot of course; probably the same with Z&Z. I also added my random pick “a Tetris piece” just because I think Sakurai love this kind of stuff and I don’t see a problem if he gives this figure a moveset.

Also of course you can make a 100 list characters, but this is what I think it’s more likely. And of course it’s very stretched cause if it depends on me, I would make just a 15 list. I tried to put what all people love, not just me.

I can’t imagine a character in the Fighter Pass 2 that isn’t in this collages I made. Probably all the FP2 will be chosen from here.

What do you think people? And of course it’s nice to see what Fatmanonice and papagenos think.

ANYWAY, I’m just hoping and giving my 100% on Geno. With him playable, I won’t ask ever again anything in gaming, and of course I won’t be that passionate with another character like Im with Mega Man and now, mostly Geno. But of course I would love other people accomplishing their dreams, or the rest of mine (Skull Kid, another Sonic, or other from Zelda, Scorpion, Hayabusa, more indie Reps like Hollow/Ori and of course Crash, which I think is a 100% closed deal right now, together with Geno). Crash and Geno are happening without a single doubt. But I have to admit I was half paid with Mega Man reveal in 2013; and now I would be fully paid with Geno reveal in 2020. My 2 most beloved third party babies.

GENO SHOOTS FOR SMASH!

EDIT: there are 2 Captain Toad; one was intented to be Reimu but I made an error editing.

EDIT 2: the roster is now fixed and I put the missing Reimu over the duplicated Captain Toad.

EDIT 3: no particular order. Just Geno in first place.

 

[Fatmanonice]

AH! I'm unbanned! I have lots to talk about! I wanted to share some predictive models I made on Sunday that we can test the accuracy of very soon. All three models coincidentally suggest a reveal next week:

Smash Ultimate Amiibo Waves:

Wave 1: December 7, 2018 (second week)
Wave 2: February 15, 2019 (third week) (70 days between)
Wave 3: April 12, 2019 (second week) (56 days between)
Wave 4: July 19, 2019 (third week) (98 days between)
Wave 5: September 20, 2019 (third week) (63 days between)
Wave 6: November 15, 2019 (third week) (56 days between)
Wave 7: January 17, 2020 (third week) (53 days between) ----- 93 days to April 19th
Wave 8: June 12, 2020 (second week) (147 days between)
Wave 9: September 18, 2020 (third week) (98 days between)

Average: 80 days

DLC character release dates:
Plant- February 1, 2019 (first week)
Joker- April 17, 2019 (third week) (75 days between) (3 days off average deviation: April 14)
Hero- July 30, 2019 (fifth week) (74 days between) (35 days off average deviation: June 25)
Banjo – September 4, 2019 (first week) (66 days between) (1 day off average deviation: September 5)
Terry- November 6, 2019 (second week) (63 days between) (9 days off average deviation: November 15)
Byleth – January 28, 2020 (fifth week) (83 days) (1 day off average deviation: January 27)

Average: 72 days (suggests April 9 for original ARMS release and June 20 for new release)

DLC character announcement dates:
Joker – December 6, 2018 (second week)
Hero- June 11, 2019 (third week) (187 days between)
Banjo- June 11, 2019 (third week) (NA)
Terry- September 4, 2019 (first week) (85 days between)
Byleth- January 16, 2020 (third week) (134 days between)
ARMS- March 26, 2020 (fourth week) (70 days between)
Average: 95 days (suggests June 29 for ARMS)

Days Between Amiibo Wave and Character Release

Plant: 14 days
Joker: 5 days
Hero: 11 days
Banjo: 16 days
Terry: 9 days
Byleth: 11 days

Average: 11 (Suggests June 23 release for ARMS)

 

[TheHeartbreakKid]

View attachment 275111
View attachment 275112
View attachment 275114

So I made this 60 pictures of Most Wanted/Likely Characters to appear.

Of course my (and our) most wanted is Geno. Then I just put the people I hear most and some others I would like to see.

Scorpion is mixed with Sub Zero cause I think it if happens, it would be a Ryu/Ken situation. About Pokemon, Urshifu would come the 2 in the same slot of course; probably the same with Z&Z. I also added my random pick “a Tetris piece” just because I think Sakurai love this kind of stuff and I don’t see a problem if he gives this figure a moveset.

Also of course you can make a 100 list characters, but this is what I think it’s more likely. And of course it’s very stretched cause if it depends on me, I would make just a 15 list. I tried to put what all people love, not just me.

I can’t imagine a character in the Fighter Pass 2 that isn’t in this collages I made. Probably all the FP2 will be chosen from here.

What do you think people? And of course it’s nice to see what Fatmanonice and papagenos think.

ANYWAY, I’m just hoping and giving my 100% on Geno. With him playable, I won’t ask ever again anything in gaming, and of course I won’t be that passionate with another character like Im with Mega Man and now, mostly Geno. But of course I would love other people accomplishing their dreams, or the rest of mine (Skull Kid, another Sonic, or other from Zelda, Scorpion, Hayabusa, more indie Reps like Hollow/Ori and of course Crash, which I think is a 100% closed deal right now, together with Geno). Crash and Geno are happening without a single doubt. But I have to admit I was half paid with Mega Man reveal in 2013; and now I would be fully paid with Geno reveal in 2020. My 2 most beloved third party babies.

GENO SHOOTS FOR SMASH!

EDIT: there are 2 Captain Toad; one was intented to be Reimu but I made an error editing.

EDIT 2: the roster is now fixed and I put the missing Reimu over the duplicated Captain Toad.

Captain Toad before Sora?

F in the chat

EDIT: Nvm I'm just dumb and didn't see him

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

New column. It's noting how development has been overall more difficult. Along with other things, including how communication is difficult to slow internet speed and dealing with kids people have. You can't talk about everything out in the open, etc.

 

[QQS]

Captain Toad before Sora?

F in the chat

No particular order in the collage, just Geno first.

 

[MattX20]

AH! I'm unbanned! I have lots to talk about! I wanted to share some predictive models I made on Sunday that we can test the accuracy of very soon. All three models coincidentally suggest a reveal next week:

Smash Ultimate Amiibo Waves:

Wave 1: December 7, 2018 (second week)
Wave 2: February 15, 2019 (third week) (70 days between)
Wave 3: April 12, 2019 (second week) (56 days between)
Wave 4: July 19, 2019 (third week) (98 days between)
Wave 5: September 20, 2019 (third week) (63 days between)
Wave 6: November 15, 2019 (third week) (56 days between)
Wave 7: January 17, 2020 (third week) (53 days between) ----- 93 days to April 19th
Wave 8: June 12, 2020 (second week) (147 days between)
Wave 9: September 18, 2020 (third week) (98 days between)

Average: 80 days

DLC character release dates:
Plant- February 1, 2019 (first week)
Joker- April 17, 2019 (third week) (75 days between) (3 days off average deviation: April 14)
Hero- July 30, 2019 (fifth week) (74 days between) (35 days off average deviation: June 25)
Banjo – September 4, 2019 (first week) (66 days between) (1 day off average deviation: September 5)
Terry- November 6, 2019 (second week) (63 days between) (9 days off average deviation: November 15)
Byleth – January 28, 2020 (fifth week) (83 days) (1 day off average deviation: January 27)

Average: 72 days (suggests April 9 for original ARMS release and June 20 for new release)

DLC character announcement dates:
Joker – December 6, 2018 (second week)
Hero- June 11, 2019 (third week) (187 days between)
Banjo- June 11, 2019 (third week) (NA)
Terry- September 4, 2019 (first week) (85 days between)
Byleth- January 16, 2020 (third week) (134 days between)
ARMS- March 26, 2020 (fourth week) (70 days between)
Average: 95 days (suggests June 29 for ARMS)

Days Between Amiibo Wave and Character Release

Plant: 14 days
Joker: 5 days
Hero: 11 days
Banjo: 16 days
Terry: 9 days
Byleth: 11 days

Average: 11 (Suggests June 23 release for ARMS)

That's a pretty plausible theory if the statements from Sakurai's team not being delayed hold up. We shall see it's validity by the end of next week

 

[pinshadow]

AH! I'm unbanned! I have lots to talk about! I wanted to share some predictive models I made on Sunday that we can test the accuracy of very soon. All three models coincidentally suggest a reveal next week:

Smash Ultimate Amiibo Waves:

Wave 1: December 7, 2018 (second week)
Wave 2: February 15, 2019 (third week) (70 days between)
Wave 3: April 12, 2019 (second week) (56 days between)
Wave 4: July 19, 2019 (third week) (98 days between)
Wave 5: September 20, 2019 (third week) (63 days between)
Wave 6: November 15, 2019 (third week) (56 days between)
Wave 7: January 17, 2020 (third week) (53 days between) ----- 93 days to April 19th
Wave 8: June 12, 2020 (second week) (147 days between)
Wave 9: September 18, 2020 (third week) (98 days between)

Average: 80 days

DLC character release dates:
Plant- February 1, 2019 (first week)
Joker- April 17, 2019 (third week) (75 days between) (3 days off average deviation: April 14)
Hero- July 30, 2019 (fifth week) (74 days between) (35 days off average deviation: June 25)
Banjo – September 4, 2019 (first week) (66 days between) (1 day off average deviation: September 5)
Terry- November 6, 2019 (second week) (63 days between) (9 days off average deviation: November 15)
Byleth – January 28, 2020 (fifth week) (83 days) (1 day off average deviation: January 27)

Average: 72 days (suggests April 9 for original ARMS release and June 20 for new release)

DLC character announcement dates:
Joker – December 6, 2018 (second week)
Hero- June 11, 2019 (third week) (187 days between)
Banjo- June 11, 2019 (third week) (NA)
Terry- September 4, 2019 (first week) (85 days between)
Byleth- January 16, 2020 (third week) (134 days between)
ARMS- March 26, 2020 (fourth week) (70 days between)
Average: 95 days (suggests June 29 for ARMS)

Days Between Amiibo Wave and Character Release

Plant: 14 days
Joker: 5 days
Hero: 11 days
Banjo: 16 days
Terry: 9 days
Byleth: 11 days

Average: 11 (Suggests June 23 release for ARMS)

Wow, you actually got banned for that? I'll admit it was a pretty over the top reaction but it was still effectively calling someone out for coming into the thread just to complain about... what was happenning in the thread they weren't apart of at all. Either way, good that everything points to a reveal next week.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

New column. It's noting how development has been overall more difficult. Along with other things, including how communication is difficult to slow internet speed and dealing with kids people have. You can't talk about everything out in the open, etc.

Pretty much "Majority of staff wants to continue working, some benefits, communication more difficult, equipment issues that are being sorted out", nothing that would really impact development to a drastic degree. I do wonder what they actually do for the presentation though, I don't really see Sakurai hosting from his house but who knows, we might just hit the "no budget" range and have ACTUAL livestreamer Sakurai.

 

[Sigran101]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

New column. It's noting how development has been overall more difficult. Along with other things, including how communication is difficult to slow internet speed and dealing with kids people have. You can't talk about everything out in the open, etc.

Inb4 "See look, it's delayed out of June confirmed! Probably August or September!1!!!1!"

 

[TheCJBrine]

I don't really see Sakurai hosting from his house but who knows, we might just hit the "no budget" range and have ACTUAL livestreamer Sakurai.

"MasterSoccerguy64 - Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Development Edition LIVE STREAM! Oh, Spring Man and Geno revealed?!?!"

 

[Fatmanonice]

I wanted to also talk about another topic and that's it's okay to have decently high expectations for June and I've mapped out Smash DLC history as a whole:

January: Byleth (announcement and release)

February: Corrin (release), Bayo (release), Plant (release)

March: ARMS (announcement)

April: Mewtwo (release), Lucas (announcement), Joker (release), (ARMS original release?)

June: Lucas (release), Roy (announcement and release), Ryu (announcement and release), Hero (announcement), Banjo (announcement), ARMS (release) *original Hero release according to Imran Khan*

July: Hero (release)

September: Banjo (release), Terry (announcement)

October: Mewtwo (announcement)

November: Cloud (announcement), Plant (announcement), Terry (release)

December: Cloud (release), Corrin (announcement), Bayo (announcement), Joker (announcement), *original Byleth announcement according to Imran Khan*



Announcements: (As of 6/16/20)

January- 1

March- 1

April- 1

June- 4

September- 1

October- 1

November- 2

December- 3 (Byleth in 2019 according to Imran Khan)



Releases: (As of 6/16/20)

January – 1

February- 3

April – 2

June – 2 (Hero in 2019 according to Imran Khan)

July- 1

September – 1

November – 1

December – 1



Events by month: (As of 6/16/2020)

January- 2

February- 3

March- 1

April -3

June- 6

July- 1

September- 2

November- 2

December- 5



Top 3 rankings by Announcements:

June, December, November



Top 3 rankings by Releases:

February, tie between April and June


Top 3 rankings by Events:

June, February, April

As you can see, June is the biggest "event" month for obvious reasons. It's the most likely month for announcements but historically is tied for second in releases too. This is also notable because, if you look at the June announcements, they've been pretty heavy hitters. Smash 4 had Roy and Ryu and Ultimate so far has had Hero and Banjo. I pointed out awhile back but coincidentally we have a big fan favorite character typically paired with a third party icon. This said, it's not too unusual to expect this yet again. E3 2013 and 2014 did this as well. For E3 2018, it was slightly different but in the same spirit: two big fan favorite characters in the form of Daisy and Ridley. That said, I think the June Smash reveals would basically have to go out of their way to disappoint and I don't see that happening.

 

[CannonStreak]

AH! I'm unbanned! I have lots to talk about! I wanted to share some predictive models I made on Sunday that we can test the accuracy of very soon. All three models coincidentally suggest a reveal next week:

Smash Ultimate Amiibo Waves:

Wave 1: December 7, 2018 (second week)
Wave 2: February 15, 2019 (third week) (70 days between)
Wave 3: April 12, 2019 (second week) (56 days between)
Wave 4: July 19, 2019 (third week) (98 days between)
Wave 5: September 20, 2019 (third week) (63 days between)
Wave 6: November 15, 2019 (third week) (56 days between)
Wave 7: January 17, 2020 (third week) (53 days between) ----- 93 days to April 19th
Wave 8: June 12, 2020 (second week) (147 days between)
Wave 9: September 18, 2020 (third week) (98 days between)

Average: 80 days

DLC character release dates:
Plant- February 1, 2019 (first week)
Joker- April 17, 2019 (third week) (75 days between) (3 days off average deviation: April 14)
Hero- July 30, 2019 (fifth week) (74 days between) (35 days off average deviation: June 25)
Banjo – September 4, 2019 (first week) (66 days between) (1 day off average deviation: September 5)
Terry- November 6, 2019 (second week) (63 days between) (9 days off average deviation: November 15)
Byleth – January 28, 2020 (fifth week) (83 days) (1 day off average deviation: January 27)

Average: 72 days (suggests April 9 for original ARMS release and June 20 for new release)

DLC character announcement dates:
Joker – December 6, 2018 (second week)
Hero- June 11, 2019 (third week) (187 days between)
Banjo- June 11, 2019 (third week) (NA)
Terry- September 4, 2019 (first week) (85 days between)
Byleth- January 16, 2020 (third week) (134 days between)
ARMS- March 26, 2020 (fourth week) (70 days between)
Average: 95 days (suggests June 29 for ARMS)

Days Between Amiibo Wave and Character Release

Plant: 14 days
Joker: 5 days
Hero: 11 days
Banjo: 16 days
Terry: 9 days
Byleth: 11 days

Average: 11 (Suggests June 23 release for ARMS)

Welcome back! I have to say, I missed you. No hard feelings from our previous conversation, right? Let me say I actually understood where you were coming from back then.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Inb4 "See look, it's delayed out of June confirmed! Probably August or September!1!!!1!"

Well, for CP7, this is possible. Not for ARMS.

Pretty much "Majority of staff wants to continue working, some benefits, communication more difficult, equipment issues that are being sorted out", nothing that would really impact development to a drastic degree. I do wonder what they actually do for the presentation though, I don't really see Sakurai hosting from his house but who knows, we might just hit the "no budget" range and have ACTUAL livestreamer Sakurai.

Actually, it's a lot more detrimental than you think. It takes days to get things ordered, to your house, and actually set up. And they have a lot of issues with that. In addition, communication due to bad internet is a massive deal. I'm currently actually working on a Smash fangame with an entire team. We're going super slowly due to a ton of communication issues. It's been 2 years with very little done. Sakurai actually does have to deal with sending videos and other uploads being slow. This means playtesting them is a slow process.

So it really does affect it a lot. It adds up fast. Remember, the character would've came out closer to April at best. We're talking possibly up to 3 months of a delay here considering he noted the delay in March as is. Since if it's in April, that means it'd have been done by March. Maybe 2 months delay thanks to all of this. Gameplay being slower to figure out is due to bad internet as well. Trust me, this stuff matters as I can say from direct experience.

It sucks, but I'm actually just happy he wasn't massively delayed and only by two months at best(that'd be the shortest time spent on it due to gameplay/COVID-19 causing some massive delays). He's pretty much outright admitting COVID-19 has affected delay time, and explaining how it did. That needs to be taken into account why it's taking so long.

...Now the end of June might be happening for this character instead of next week. ._.

 

[MattX20]

Well, for CP7, this is possible. Not for ARMS.


Actually, it's a lot more detrimental than you think. It takes days to get things ordered, to your house, and actually set up. And they have a lot of issues with that. In addition, communication due to bad internet is a massive deal. I'm currently actually working on a Smash fangame with an entire team. We're going super slowly due to a ton of communication issues. It's been 2 years with very little done. Sakurai actually does have to deal with sending videos and other uploads being slow. This means playtesting them is a slow process.

So it really does affect it a lot. It adds up fast. Remember, the character would've came out closer to April at best. We're talking possibly up to 3 months of a delay here considering he noted the delay in March as is. Since if it's in April, that means it'd have been done by March. Maybe 2 months delay thanks to all of this. Gameplay being slower to figure out is due to bad internet as well. Trust me, this stuff matters as I can say from direct experience.

It sucks, but I'm actually just happy he wasn't massively delayed and only by two months at best(that'd be the shortest time spent on it due to gameplay/COVID-19 causing some massive delays). He's pretty much outright admitting COVID-19 has affected delay time, and explaining how it did. That needs to be taken into account why it's taking so long.

...Now the end of June might be happening for this character instead of next week. ._.

I wasn't expecting FP7 to release in summer, but fall seems more applicable. That, and the reveal trailer for 7 is likely done/ready to present

 

[Spatulo]

AH! I'm unbanned! I have lots to talk about! I wanted to share some predictive models I made on Sunday that we can test the accuracy of very soon. All three models coincidentally suggest a reveal next week:

Smash Ultimate Amiibo Waves:

Wave 1: December 7, 2018 (second week)
Wave 2: February 15, 2019 (third week) (70 days between)
Wave 3: April 12, 2019 (second week) (56 days between)
Wave 4: July 19, 2019 (third week) (98 days between)
Wave 5: September 20, 2019 (third week) (63 days between)
Wave 6: November 15, 2019 (third week) (56 days between)
Wave 7: January 17, 2020 (third week) (53 days between) ----- 93 days to April 19th
Wave 8: June 12, 2020 (second week) (147 days between)
Wave 9: September 18, 2020 (third week) (98 days between)

Average: 80 days

DLC character release dates:
Plant- February 1, 2019 (first week)
Joker- April 17, 2019 (third week) (75 days between) (3 days off average deviation: April 14)
Hero- July 30, 2019 (fifth week) (74 days between) (35 days off average deviation: June 25)
Banjo – September 4, 2019 (first week) (66 days between) (1 day off average deviation: September 5)
Terry- November 6, 2019 (second week) (63 days between) (9 days off average deviation: November 15)
Byleth – January 28, 2020 (fifth week) (83 days) (1 day off average deviation: January 27)

Average: 72 days (suggests April 9 for original ARMS release and June 20 for new release)

DLC character announcement dates:
Joker – December 6, 2018 (second week)
Hero- June 11, 2019 (third week) (187 days between)
Banjo- June 11, 2019 (third week) (NA)
Terry- September 4, 2019 (first week) (85 days between)
Byleth- January 16, 2020 (third week) (134 days between)
ARMS- March 26, 2020 (fourth week) (70 days between)
Average: 95 days (suggests June 29 for ARMS)

Days Between Amiibo Wave and Character Release

Plant: 14 days
Joker: 5 days
Hero: 11 days
Banjo: 16 days
Terry: 9 days
Byleth: 11 days

Average: 11 (Suggests June 23 release for ARMS)

Welcome back! Desperate times call for desperate measures

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I wasn't expecting FP7 to release in summer, but fall seems more applicable. That, and the reveal trailer for 7 is likely done/ready to present

I think July/August is most likely for CP7. August feels a bit more. However, I could see the trailer in July and release in August too. It's hard to say.

If we get a Smash Direct next week or the week after, CP7 is totally getting announced. If it's an ARMS presentation, I feel we're waiting.