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Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

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Enigma735

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I keep drifting back to wondering what Geno's trailer would be, and I can't rule out the possibility that Sakurai might pull another "fakeout" like Banjo and K.rool.


(everyone's discussed this before but ima bring it up again....have a habit of doing that lately...ARGH we need some news....)


I feel like with the arms character reveal, they're gonna reveal the geno mii again....and it'll be a similar trailer as the one in 4, but the difference is, as the Geno mii is walking by, we see a round fast disc hit them followed by the iconic sound from smrpg.

it then goes into an actual Geno trailer. Maybe he makes some comment about "fakes/clones" from Belome if Sakurai really wants to throw a reference in there that only SMRPG fans would get.
This trailer would be the best way for detractors to get BTFO'd. Let's make them think they have their satisfaction, when really it is OUR satisfaction.
 

MattX20

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I feel the most likely scenario for Geno's trailer either involves him coming to the aid of Rosalina or in a forest as a reference to the Forest Maze.
 

Fatmanonice

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Let Geno Smash Let Geno Smash Sakurai made these statements in early May:
https://cogconnected.com/2020/05/sakurai-updates-smash-ultimate/

Basically says that not only the team has yet to run into any major problems but, ironically, the team is actually working better under these conditions. To the despair of competitive players, this is also where he says that they're focusing entirely in getting DLC done so plans to fix Ultimate's online are pretty much postponed until they're done with Season 2. I take these as good signs because, when Sakurai's having problems, he's pretty straightforward about it. Whenever he's sick or injured or super stressed out he doesn't try to cover it up so I totally believe Sakurai when he says that things are going smoothly.
 

MattX20

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Let Geno Smash Let Geno Smash Sakurai made these statements in early May:
https://cogconnected.com/2020/05/sakurai-updates-smash-ultimate/

Basically says that not only the team has yet to run into any major problems but, ironically, the team is actually working better under these conditions. To the despair of competitive players, this is also where he says that they're focusing entirely in getting DLC done so plans to fix Ultimate's online are pretty much postponed until they're done with Season 2. I take these as good signs because, when Sakurai's having problems, he's pretty straightforward about it. Whenever he's sick or injured or super stressed out he doesn't try to cover it up so I totally believe Sakurai when he says that things are going smoothly.
I don't play much online matches much, so this doesn't bother me. As long as the team is safe and that progress is relatively smooth, I've no reason to complain
 
D

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I don't play much online matches much, so this doesn't bother me.
[cries in having not seen the local Smash community in almost three months]

To be completely fair, I don't think they're actually able to fix the online. Latency is always going to be an issue, that's the nature of reality over the internet. The alternative is for the game to rubber band and estimate player positions, and I think we'd all be angrier to be hit by an fsmash from literally across the stage thanks to the game making a bad estimate based on missing packets. For something like Mario Maker, it's what they should have gone with, but with Smash, this is probably the best we can get, I just can't imagine them solving the problem and making a near flawless experience.

Not to say they couldn't improve the matchmaking to keep people away from one another when their connection is going to be garbage based on a preliminary test, but I've got a LAN adapter and play with people in my own town and it's still not perfect. Passable, but not perfect. For Smash to be competitively successful over the internet, all tournaments are going to have to be nearly state-level, depending on the size of the state.
 

Vector Victor

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Let Geno Smash Let Geno Smash Sakurai made these statements in early May:
https://cogconnected.com/2020/05/sakurai-updates-smash-ultimate/

Basically says that not only the team has yet to run into any major problems but, ironically, the team is actually working better under these conditions. To the despair of competitive players, this is also where he says that they're focusing entirely in getting DLC done so plans to fix Ultimate's online are pretty much postponed until they're done with Season 2. I take these as good signs because, when Sakurai's having problems, he's pretty straightforward about it. Whenever he's sick or injured or super stressed out he doesn't try to cover it up so I totally believe Sakurai when he says that things are going smoothly.
'While under these restrictions, we learned that we actually get more done and at no added stress or difficulty. So we were able to make even more characters.


Here's Doctor Dolphin and his echo Nurse Waluigi!'
 

Polarthief

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this is also where he says that they're focusing entirely in getting DLC done so plans to fix Ultimate's online are pretty much postponed until they're done with Season 2.
Are there... actual plans to fix it? I don't play online, but if it wasn't absolute crap, I might be inclined to.
 
Last edited:

Let Geno Smash

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Let Geno Smash Let Geno Smash Sakurai made these statements in early May:
https://cogconnected.com/2020/05/sakurai-updates-smash-ultimate/

Basically says that not only the team has yet to run into any major problems but, ironically, the team is actually working better under these conditions. To the despair of competitive players, this is also where he says that they're focusing entirely in getting DLC done so plans to fix Ultimate's online are pretty much postponed until they're done with Season 2. I take these as good signs because, when Sakurai's having problems, he's pretty straightforward about it. Whenever he's sick or injured or super stressed out he doesn't try to cover it up so I totally believe Sakurai when he says that things are going smoothly.
Excuse me i forgot that
 

Loliko YnT

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Alright , I usually don't do them... But I know everyone here pretty well , so might as well share my predicition for FP2. Once again , I'm not Sakurai , I'm just some random K.Rool/Olimar main from Normandy lol
Loliko FP2 Prediction.jpg

ARMS : Well , we're getting an ARMS fighter. And honestly , while this choice is controversial , I'm betting on a hero situation with them. It would also be easier for advertising , you represent a complete franchise in a way. I feel like it's easier to sell the name "ARMS" than it is to sell "Min-Min" or "Max Brass" , but that's just me.

Geno : Check the list by PolarThieft + The insane fan demand.

Rayman : Ubisoft has been very weird with Smash as of late , and Rayman has been a favorite for Smash , on top of having a good history with Nintendo. I feel like it could finally be time for my limbless boy.

Isaac : I don't know if people are aware , but there's been some really weird stuff going behind the scenes with trademarks and stuff concerning GS. I'm fairly confident we could get some GS Duology remaster , and Isaac would come to promote it , and he would be fairly well recieved.

Lloyd : Obligatory Bamco rep , it's weird these guys got nothing after working on Smash for long. Heihachi could also work.

Waluigi : Yeah , I already putted Geno here. But I have the gut feeling that Waluigi is just going to be the final reveal. It would be an internet breaking reveal imo , and while Smash doesn't end on good final reveals... I simply have this gut feeling that Sakurai will say "*sigh*... It's really because I love my job. Have your lanky plumber."
 

Phoenix Douchebag

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Alright , I usually don't do them... But I know everyone here pretty well , so might as well share my predicition for FP2. Once again , I'm not Sakurai , I'm just some random K.Rool/Olimar main from Normandy lol
View attachment 272918
ARMS : Well , we're getting an ARMS fighter. And honestly , while this choice is controversial , I'm betting on a hero situation with them. It would also be easier for advertising , you represent a complete franchise in a way. I feel like it's easier to sell the name "ARMS" than it is to sell "Min-Min" or "Max Brass" , but that's just me.

Geno : Check the list by PolarThieft + The insane fan demand.

Rayman : Ubisoft has been very weird with Smash as of late , and Rayman has been a favorite for Smash , on top of having a good history with Nintendo. I feel like it could finally be time for my limbless boy.

Isaac : I don't know if people are aware , but there's been some really weird stuff going behind the scenes with trademarks and stuff concerning GS. I'm fairly confident we could get some GS Duology remaster , and Isaac would come to promote it , and he would be fairly well recieved.

Lloyd : Obligatory Bamco rep , it's weird these guys got nothing after working on Smash for long. Heihachi could also work.

Waluigi : Yeah , I already putted Geno here. But I have the gut feeling that Waluigi is just going to be the final reveal. It would be an internet breaking reveal imo , and while Smash doesn't end on good final reveals... I simply have this gut feeling that Sakurai will say "*sigh*... It's really because I love my job. Have your lanky plumber."
Not gonna ****ing lie man, this is lit. If this was the Pass i would buy the entire thing no question.

Of course, we are not gonna get a Fighter Pass that is as hype as this one (at least in my opinion) that's all im sure of.
 

Polarthief

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Geno : Check the list by PolarThieft
Brb gotta change my name. Also obligatory uwu~

Not gonna ****ing lie man, this is lit. If this was the Pass i would buy the entire thing no question.

Of course, we are not gonna get a Fighter Pass that is as hype as this one (at least in my opinion) that's all im sure of.
Yeah for sure. I personally think Crash has a better chance over Rayman, only because of the Ubisoft stuff that came with Byleth, but that's just me. I'm not even a huge fan of some of these picks, but overall, assuming the ARMS rep is a spirit promotion (or a Hero/Jr.-style fighter), this has:
- My #1 pick: Geno
- My #6 (#5 with BK being out) pick: Lloyd
- One of my honorable mentions picks: Wah
- A pick I'm indifferent towards but I still support: Isaac
- Rayman/Crash is alright I guess.
- If Ribbon Girl or Twintelle is in the ARMS rep, I would be hype about that

TL;DR: Some picks I love, some I'm cool with, and none that I actively don't want to see, so yeah, I'd be all over this pass (even though I already bought the damn thing day 1, cuz I just have that much faith in Geno, and Sakurai deserves the extra cash for all his hard work).

That said, I seriously doubt we'll end up with this exact pass. I'm expecting about half of it to be true, but I really doubt all 6 of them will happen.
 
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Fatmanonice

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More reasons why I entertain at least three characters this summer:

-My guys said 6 and 7 were being worked on in January and that appears to have been true which means 8 probably started in late January or early February. Why does this matter? Because we kind of already have timeline precedent thanks to Season 1. Thanks to the December 2018 datamine leak, we know the team was working on Plant, Joker, and Hero at that time. This means that, despite being an E3 reveal, Banjo probably didn't start actual development until Plant went Platinum. Banjo released in early September but was ready to present by mid June. This lines up pretty sharply with insider estimates that actual development of characters (so not negotiations, concept creation, etc) is about 7-8 months, with characters usually being in a presentable state by the 5th month.

There's two examples I would like to give to demonstrate this. First is Hero. Pirated copies of Ultimate were datamined in November and the only DLC characters found at the time were Plant and Joker. Hero wasn't found until after launch day in December. This means Hero likely began development in November or December. December to June = Basically 6 months. Hero was then released pretty much the final day of July so about 8 months give or take, fitting the model.

The second example is our mysterious ARMS character. We have decent evidence that 6 was originally planned as an April release. Let's backtrack 7-8 months... We're basically in August/September... When Sakurai formally announced that more DLC was coming. That's a hell of a coincidence and supports the theory that 6 probably began around the time Banjo was released ALSO giving even more credence to the theory that they typically work on three characters at a time. Extended from this, this also suggests 7 probably started work around the time Terry released in November. Sound familiar? This is because it follows Hero's development timeline to a T.

-Third party announcements have always been given the red carpet in some form of another. Snake, Megaman, Pac-Man, Ryu, Hero and Banjo were all E3 reveals, Bayonetta, Simon, Richter, and Ken were all Smash Direct reveals, Joker was a VGA reveal, Sonic was the only newcomer aside from technically Snake in Brawl to get his own trailer, Cloud was not only the precursor to the Final Smash 4 Direct but had a whole segment dedicated to him in the Final Smash 4 Direct, and Terry was not only the precursor to the announcement of Season 2 but he got an hour long presentation too. Third party characters aren't just casually dropped and even the third party echoes were featured in trailers. This is even more notable when you compare it to first party characters.

There's only been two third party characters that have been revealed in regular ass Directs: Cloud and Terry but then wound up getting massive showcases later down the line. In Smash 4, Cloud was the only one in a regular Direct and so far for Ultimate it's just been Terry. If you look at Smash history, the number of first party characters revealed in Directs or just casually announced on the side is 11 (Rosalina, Little Mac, Robin, Lucina, Shulk, Duck Hunt, Lucas, Inkling, Isabelle, Byleth, and ARMS). That's a big difference and shows that a lot of thought goes into third party character announcements. They don't just "drop" third party characters. Either they're dropped at a major event or a big ass announcement is attached to them. This is why I'm incredulous when people say, "oh, maybe Crash would be a Fall Direct announcement" and believe this only would happen if something major for Smash or Nintendo was being announced with him. This is also why I entertain Lloyd for a Fall Direct announcement but that's a whole other argument...
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Three characters huh? With the ARMS character? I’m not sure myself I don’t see it. I think it’s ether just the ARMS character.

Or we get them and #7.

It would be awesome if we get three but I think it’s just the ARMS character honestly for now. Maybe #7.

Three would be awesome I just don’t see a triple reveal. Though it’d be cool.
 

Let Geno Smash

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More reasons why I entertain at least three characters this summer:

-My guys said 6 and 7 were being worked on in January and that appears to have been true which means 8 probably started in late January or early February. Why does this matter? Because we kind of already have timeline precedent thanks to Season 1. Thanks to the December 2018 datamine leak, we know the team was working on Plant, Joker, and Hero at that time. This means that, despite being an E3 reveal, Banjo probably didn't start actual development until Plant went Platinum. Banjo released in early September but was ready to present by mid June. This lines up pretty sharply with insider estimates that actual development of characters (so not negotiations, concept creation, etc) is about 7-8 months, with characters usually being in a presentable state by the 5th month.

There's two examples I would like to give to demonstrate this. First is Hero. Pirated copies of Ultimate were datamined in November and the only DLC characters found at the time were Plant and Joker. Hero wasn't found until after launch day in December. This means Hero likely began development in November or December. December to June = Basically 6 months. Hero was then released pretty much the final day of July so about 8 months give or take, fitting the model.

The second example is our mysterious ARMS character. We have decent evidence that 6 was originally planned as an April release. Let's backtrack 7-8 months... We're basically in August/September... When Sakurai formally announced that more DLC was coming. That's a hell of a coincidence and supports the theory that 6 probably began around the time Banjo was released ALSO giving even more credence to the theory that they typically work on three characters at a time. Extended from this, this also suggests 7 probably started work around the time Terry released in November. Sound familiar? This is because it follows Hero's development timeline to a T.

-Third party announcements have always been given the red carpet in some form of another. Snake, Megaman, Pac-Man, Ryu, Hero and Banjo were all E3 reveals, Bayonetta, Simon, Richter, and Ken were all Smash Direct reveals, Joker was a VGA reveal, Sonic was the only newcomer aside from technically Snake in Brawl to get his own trailer, Cloud was not only the precursor to the Final Smash 4 Direct but had a whole segment dedicated to him in the Final Smash 4 Direct, and Terry was not only the precursor to the announcement of Season 2 but he got an hour long presentation too. Third party characters aren't just casually dropped and even the third party echoes were featured in trailers. This is even more notable when you compare it to first party characters.

There's only been two third party characters that have been revealed in regular ass Directs: Cloud and Terry but then wound up getting massive showcases later down the line. In Smash 4, Cloud was the only one in a regular Direct and so far for Ultimate it's just been Terry. If you look at Smash history, the number of first party characters revealed in Directs or just casually announced on the side is 11 (Rosalina, Little Mac, Robin, Lucina, Shulk, Duck Hunt, Lucas, Inkling, Isabelle, Byleth, and ARMS). That's a big difference and shows that a lot of thought goes into third party character announcements. They don't just "drop" third party characters. Either they're dropped at a major event or a big ass announcement is attached to them. This is why I'm incredulous when people say, "oh, maybe Crash would be a Fall Direct announcement" and believe this only would happen if something major for Smash or Nintendo was being announced with him. This is also why I entertain Lloyd for a Fall Direct announcement but that's a whole other argument...
Three things:
1- It is the first time that I see Arms, 7 and 8 possible the same day (You have said that you think it will be Geno and Crash which are the characters that I want to see the most in these DLC's, therefore seeing them the same day would be beautiful)
2- you say that you think 7 started in November, like Cacomallow (My theory is cacodemon with arms and mallow with geno)
3- Oh, so you think Lloyd is 9? You always said you thought Geno, Lloyd, Crash, Dante and Chief and I believed
7: Geno
8: Crash
11: Master Chief
but I always wondered who would be 10 and who would be 9, thanks
 

Fatmanonice

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Yet another reason I entertain three is because the chances of another pack being dedicated to a Nintendo character are pretty small. Like I showed in my last post, third party reveals are always given the royal treatment while first and second are just announced whenever it's most convenient. That said, the chances of 7-11 being all third party is really high and we already know Nintendo wanted to cash its chips on ARMS in the Spring Direct. With Nintendo foregoing Directs for the foreseeable future, it presents fewer opportunities. As shown, Nintendo doesn't just shadowdrop third party characters, they're always part of a special Direct or event. Beyond this, we don't really have another opportunity like Cloud or Terry either. Sakurai has been pretty clear that this is the last DLC so attaching a major announcement to just one character would probably be pretty hard at this point. This said, we're presented with a much tighter window that suggests Nintendo will either wait until special events or just make them themselves ala Smash Directs.
 

G0nard

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Well I'm now even more concerned. Nintendo just announced a splatoon 2 open tournament now ARMS and Splatoon 2 have had the exact same thing happen
- free timed full game demos
-tournaments attached to said games
-ARMS being a reward for both smash and Splatoon

I know most of you are gonna say "still doubt we're getting another Splatoon rep" but I still have this feeling that's what we're gonna get it
 

Polarthief

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Well I'm now even more concerned. Nintendo just announced a splatoon 2 open tournament now ARMS and Splatoon 2 have had the exact same thing happen
- free timed full game demos
-tournaments attached to said games
-ARMS being a reward for both smash and Splatoon

I know most of you are gonna say "still doubt we're getting another Splatoon rep" but I still have this feeling that's what we're gonna get it
Who or what could it possibly be? Unless we're getting Splatoon 3 and they're gonna have all new weapons, it'd be an echo, and unless they want to commit false marketing, FP2 isn't going to have echoes. I don't see a Splatoon rep happening without a drastic gameplay change, not by a long shot.
 

Trevenant

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Well I'm now even more concerned. Nintendo just announced a splatoon 2 open tournament now ARMS and Splatoon 2 have had the exact same thing happen
- free timed full game demos
-tournaments attached to said games
-ARMS being a reward for both smash and Splatoon

I know most of you are gonna say "still doubt we're getting another Splatoon rep" but I still have this feeling that's what we're gonna get it
Those just seem to be fun little coincidences aside from maybe the latter. I think ARMS at least didn't get anything playable wise while Splatoon did. Out of all IP they could choose I'd be confused if it were Splatoon
 
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MattX20

Smash Hero
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Aug 8, 2013
Messages
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More reasons why I entertain at least three characters this summer:

-My guys said 6 and 7 were being worked on in January and that appears to have been true which means 8 probably started in late January or early February. Why does this matter? Because we kind of already have timeline precedent thanks to Season 1. Thanks to the December 2018 datamine leak, we know the team was working on Plant, Joker, and Hero at that time. This means that, despite being an E3 reveal, Banjo probably didn't start actual development until Plant went Platinum. Banjo released in early September but was ready to present by mid June. This lines up pretty sharply with insider estimates that actual development of characters (so not negotiations, concept creation, etc) is about 7-8 months, with characters usually being in a presentable state by the 5th month.

There's two examples I would like to give to demonstrate this. First is Hero. Pirated copies of Ultimate were datamined in November and the only DLC characters found at the time were Plant and Joker. Hero wasn't found until after launch day in December. This means Hero likely began development in November or December. December to June = Basically 6 months. Hero was then released pretty much the final day of July so about 8 months give or take, fitting the model.

The second example is our mysterious ARMS character. We have decent evidence that 6 was originally planned as an April release. Let's backtrack 7-8 months... We're basically in August/September... When Sakurai formally announced that more DLC was coming. That's a hell of a coincidence and supports the theory that 6 probably began around the time Banjo was released ALSO giving even more credence to the theory that they typically work on three characters at a time. Extended from this, this also suggests 7 probably started work around the time Terry released in November. Sound familiar? This is because it follows Hero's development timeline to a T.

-Third party announcements have always been given the red carpet in some form of another. Snake, Megaman, Pac-Man, Ryu, Hero and Banjo were all E3 reveals, Bayonetta, Simon, Richter, and Ken were all Smash Direct reveals, Joker was a VGA reveal, Sonic was the only newcomer aside from technically Snake in Brawl to get his own trailer, Cloud was not only the precursor to the Final Smash 4 Direct but had a whole segment dedicated to him in the Final Smash 4 Direct, and Terry was not only the precursor to the announcement of Season 2 but he got an hour long presentation too. Third party characters aren't just casually dropped and even the third party echoes were featured in trailers. This is even more notable when you compare it to first party characters.

There's only been two third party characters that have been revealed in regular ass Directs: Cloud and Terry but then wound up getting massive showcases later down the line. In Smash 4, Cloud was the only one in a regular Direct and so far for Ultimate it's just been Terry. If you look at Smash history, the number of first party characters revealed in Directs or just casually announced on the side is 11 (Rosalina, Little Mac, Robin, Lucina, Shulk, Duck Hunt, Lucas, Inkling, Isabelle, Byleth, and ARMS). That's a big difference and shows that a lot of thought goes into third party character announcements. They don't just "drop" third party characters. Either they're dropped at a major event or a big ass announcement is attached to them. This is why I'm incredulous when people say, "oh, maybe Crash would be a Fall Direct announcement" and believe this only would happen if something major for Smash or Nintendo was being announced with him. This is also why I entertain Lloyd for a Fall Direct announcement but that's a whole other argument...
At bare minimum, we'll see a 3rd party reveal for sure beyond the ARMS rep. If we get two, even better
 

G0nard

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Who or what could it possibly be? Unless we're getting Splatoon 3 and they're gonna have all new weapons, it'd be an echo, and unless they want to commit false marketing, FP2 isn't going to have echoes. I don't see a Splatoon rep happening without a drastic gameplay change, not by a long shot.
Part of me says yeah we're getting a new splatoon or a spin off or DLC, another part of me is thinking that splatoon 2 is suddenly getting all this love is because of the pandamic and nintendo just wanted to give people another reason to play splat 2. I could be HELLA WRONG about the smash DLC. (and honestly I'll be glad if I am) but now it's gonna be in the back of my head and this will be the last time I bring this up until the DLC announcement
 

Rie Sonomura

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Who or what could it possibly be? Unless we're getting Splatoon 3 and they're gonna have all new weapons, it'd be an echo, and unless they want to commit false marketing, FP2 isn't going to have echoes. I don't see a Splatoon rep happening without a drastic gameplay change, not by a long shot.
They only said FPV1 wouldn’t have echoes, iirc. And Octoling could be a Wolf-style semi clone or even fully unique, imo.
Those just seem to be fun little coincidences aside from maybe the latter. I think ARNS at least didn't get anything playable wise while Splatoon did. Out of all IP they could choose I'd be confused if it were Splatoon
To be fair, in a few days it’s Splatoon’s 5th anniversary so...
 

Polarthief

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Messages
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Part of me says yeah we're getting a new splatoon or a spin off or DLC, another part of me is thinking that splatoon 2 is suddenly getting all this love is because of the pandamic and nintendo just wanted to give people another reason to play splat 2. I could be HELLA WRONG about the smash DLC. (and honestly I'll be glad if I am) but now it's gonna be in the back of my head and this will be the last time I bring this up until the DLC announcement
That would be the biggest "**** you" to say these characters are extra and then pull something like that though. ARMS would have been in FP1/base if Ultimate came out later, and it's why I think Rex is on his way. I just don't see a "shill rep for Splatoon 3" happening.

They only said FPV1 wouldn’t have echoes, iirc.
If you advertise Challenger Packs and a Fighter's Pass to not have echoes, then start selling more packs and a second Fighter's Pass, it's the same thing. Being like "OH BUT WE DIDN'T *EXPLICITLY* SAY IT'S NOT ECHOES! XD" wouldn't fly in court. That's extremely misleading and I see Nintendo easily losing that lawsuit.

And Octoling could be a Wolf-style semi clone or even fully unique, imo.
Honestly, it just seems like a waste to do it. We just got Inkling and they'd still be very similar. If they wanted to make a bonus DLC for Octoling as a semi-clone, sure go ahead, but you should absolutely not pull that with the pass, especially when all 5 FP1 characters were brand new and not like previous characters. Yeah Terry uses a mechanic of previously-existing characters, but he still doesn't play like them.
 

YsDisciple

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Messages
1,242
More reasons why I entertain at least three characters this summer:

-My guys said 6 and 7 were being worked on in January and that appears to have been true which means 8 probably started in late January or early February. Why does this matter? Because we kind of already have timeline precedent thanks to Season 1. Thanks to the December 2018 datamine leak, we know the team was working on Plant, Joker, and Hero at that time. This means that, despite being an E3 reveal, Banjo probably didn't start actual development until Plant went Platinum. Banjo released in early September but was ready to present by mid June. This lines up pretty sharply with insider estimates that actual development of characters (so not negotiations, concept creation, etc) is about 7-8 months, with characters usually being in a presentable state by the 5th month.

There's two examples I would like to give to demonstrate this. First is Hero. Pirated copies of Ultimate were datamined in November and the only DLC characters found at the time were Plant and Joker. Hero wasn't found until after launch day in December. This means Hero likely began development in November or December. December to June = Basically 6 months. Hero was then released pretty much the final day of July so about 8 months give or take, fitting the model.

The second example is our mysterious ARMS character. We have decent evidence that 6 was originally planned as an April release. Let's backtrack 7-8 months... We're basically in August/September... When Sakurai formally announced that more DLC was coming. That's a hell of a coincidence and supports the theory that 6 probably began around the time Banjo was released ALSO giving even more credence to the theory that they typically work on three characters at a time. Extended from this, this also suggests 7 probably started work around the time Terry released in November. Sound familiar? This is because it follows Hero's development timeline to a T.

-Third party announcements have always been given the red carpet in some form of another. Snake, Megaman, Pac-Man, Ryu, Hero and Banjo were all E3 reveals, Bayonetta, Simon, Richter, and Ken were all Smash Direct reveals, Joker was a VGA reveal, Sonic was the only newcomer aside from technically Snake in Brawl to get his own trailer, Cloud was not only the precursor to the Final Smash 4 Direct but had a whole segment dedicated to him in the Final Smash 4 Direct, and Terry was not only the precursor to the announcement of Season 2 but he got an hour long presentation too. Third party characters aren't just casually dropped and even the third party echoes were featured in trailers. This is even more notable when you compare it to first party characters.

There's only been two third party characters that have been revealed in regular ass Directs: Cloud and Terry but then wound up getting massive showcases later down the line. In Smash 4, Cloud was the only one in a regular Direct and so far for Ultimate it's just been Terry. If you look at Smash history, the number of first party characters revealed in Directs or just casually announced on the side is 11 (Rosalina, Little Mac, Robin, Lucina, Shulk, Duck Hunt, Lucas, Inkling, Isabelle, Byleth, and ARMS). That's a big difference and shows that a lot of thought goes into third party character announcements. They don't just "drop" third party characters. Either they're dropped at a major event or a big ass announcement is attached to them. This is why I'm incredulous when people say, "oh, maybe Crash would be a Fall Direct announcement" and believe this only would happen if something major for Smash or Nintendo was being announced with him. This is also why I entertain Lloyd for a Fall Direct announcement but that's a whole other argument...
Following Fatmanonice's recap, I too agree with the possibility of us seeing not only who CP 6 will be, but also CP 7 and 8. As it's been brought up before, the ARMS character most likely was ready by around April and was held back for... reasons. However, since the ARMS character being CP 6, and as Sakurai has expressed was a request from Nintendo to pretty much make him the Vol. 2 starter (correct?), then CPs 7 and 8 should be pretty much on standby to be revealed around what would have been this year's E3 week. Last year we got the double dose with Hero + Banjo (two third parties) on the same E3 2019 Direct. A Smash Direct would actually be fitting in order to reveal all three (perhaps why Sakurai and co. have taken a bit more time in ultimately revealing the ARMS fighter). Also, to toss another possibility into the mix; what if they end up tossing some extra content in the upcoming CP 6 update (a new mode perhaps)?
 

Fatmanonice

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Well I'm now even more concerned. Nintendo just announced a splatoon 2 open tournament now ARMS and Splatoon 2 have had the exact same thing happen
- free timed full game demos
-tournaments attached to said games
-ARMS being a reward for both smash and Splatoon

I know most of you are gonna say "still doubt we're getting another Splatoon rep" but I still have this feeling that's what we're gonna get it
I'm still in the camp of Splatoon 3 or a notable spin-off like Splatoon x Jet Set Radio Future (I ****in' wish...). I mostly think this because the leaked Splatoon Amiibo dump in the fall is super suspicious. If it was Smash related, the Inkling would be woomy-ing all over the ****in' place but its notably MIA. The Mario rereleases are very obviously for the 35th anniversary and, at the very least, the Zelda ones are likely for BotW2 so why are the Splatoon ones getting a massive rerelease except, you know, the only Splatoon character in Smash? That's super weird.
 

G0nard

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I'm still in the camp of Splatoon 3 or a notable spin-off like Splatoon x Jet Set Radio Future (I ****in' wish...). I mostly think this because the leaked Splatoon Amiibo dump in the fall is super suspicious. If it was Smash related, the Inkling would be woomy-ing all over the ****in' place but its notably MIA. The Mario rereleases are very obviously for the 35th anniversary and, at the very least, the Zelda ones are likely for BotW2 so why are the Splatoon ones getting a massive rerelease except, you know, the only Splatoon character in Smash? That's super weird.
....Uh oh

What i've been thinking about and looking at the recaps and all the other posts it gives me THIS THEORY

- Waluigi, Geno and Lloyd were the 3 DLC characters that we've been hearing about all this time and will be in the Fighter's Pass
- Nintendo then sees the opportunity and asks Sakurai to add in 3 "Promotional characters" to then make the second fighter's Pass (or 2 Promotional characters i'm not sure)
- Nintendo realizes "Okay Bylteh has the most dislikes of all of our smash announcements. lets announce all the Promotional characters first then release the planned characters later"

That last part is stupid but Nintendo has to screw up somewhere
 
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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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If you advertise Challenger Packs and a Fighter's Pass to not have echoes, then start selling more packs and a second Fighter's Pass, it's the same thing. Being like "OH BUT WE DIDN'T *EXPLICITLY* SAY IT'S NOT ECHOES! XD" wouldn't fly in court. That's extremely misleading and I see Nintendo easily losing that lawsuit.
Which does not apply to Pass 2. Unless they explicitly stated Echoes are not part of Pass 2, it is not and never will be false advertising. You would lose hard in court for trying to state so. You can't make the claim without backing it up. Precedent is not a statement. Remember when Fighter's Pass 1 was 3rd party only? That's equivalent to the claim you're making here. "It's happened before so it will happen again" is a fallacy. You can apply a lot of arguments to it, including Spirits and AT's. For good reasons, those are terrible arguments too.

It's fine to not believe it's likely, but you can't claim misleading due to precedent and expect that to actually fly in court. They did not advertise the Fighter's Pass 2 as "No echoes" in any way, nor is it an official statement. So no, it would not be misleading.

There's a far better reason to believe we aren't getting an Echo outside of a Bonus character or a special third pass(both of which are also significantly unlikely with Sakurai's own statement, but Nintendo could change their minds later too. I mean, they decided upon DLC later as well in general), and that's because they take significantly less work than a normal character, even a regular clone like Dr. Mario(who is still more unique than Ken, though not terribly better) is more work. That would mean we're paying a lot for an Echo when they're noted to be significantly less work. Sure, they're still work, but paying the same price as a normal character would feel odd. The thing is, they still take a lot of time to do and a lot of work compared to a Mii Costume or an Alternate Costume. So it wouldn't be misleading either way. It's still a character, stage, and music. And if lucky, a Spirit Board(which they didn't advertise either, but if you tried to take it to court "they added extra content" it wouldn't fly either. The spirit boards, if I remember right, didn't cost any money to download, so they're a bonus anyway. But more importantly, this doesn't affect your purchase. It's not comparable, to say, putting extra condiments on food that were not noted within the item, which can cause legitimate health issues). That's the level of difference. More generally does not count as false advertising unless it can legitimately affect you negatively(lol I hate spirits doesn't count).

Now keep in mind I don't think Echoes are coming, but it's due to the work needed and the price feels inflated too. ...I mean, Nintendo itself does overprice things. Years later and some games don't go down more than a few dollars(like 3) at some places. It's ridiculous. So I could see it being pulled off.
 

Trevenant

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....Uh oh

What i've been thinking about and looking at the recaps and all the other posts it gives me THIS THEORY

- Waluigi, Geno and Lloyd were the 3 DLC characters that we've been hearing about all this time and will be in the Fighter's Pass
- Nintendo then sees the opportunity and asks Sakurai to add in 3 "Promotional characters" to then make the second fighter's Pass (or 2 Promotional characters i'm not sure)
- Nintendo realizes "Okay Bylteh has the most dislikes of all of our smash announcements. lets announce all the Promotional characters first then release the planned characters later"

That last part is stupid but Nintendo has to screw up somewhere
Theory kind of falls apart when ARMS isn't really a shill pick. If it was advertisement for ARMS 2 it probably would have been announced by now.
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Theory kind of falls apart when ARMS isn't really a shill pick. If it was advertisement for ARMS 2 it probably would have been announced by now.
They clearly advertised ARMS(1) in itself. The only way it'd be a character from ARMS 2 is if it's definitely one of the ones in ARMS 1.

Otherwise it'd be legitimately false advertising. It's clear what the statement was. They could change who the mascot is for ARMS 2 and add them(for instance, Min Min), but the ARMS(1) logo is clearly shown, so it's going to be added specifically from the only game out regardless. The fact they'd be important in ARMS 2 would be a good reason to select that character. It'd still be chosen for reasons besides advertising ARMS 2 lightly if they did it that way.

Likewise, we can expect those same designs, no updated ones, since that's the characters directly shown. It's not like this thing was shown over six months ago either, where things could change. This was set in stone a long time ago too.
 

G0nard

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Theory kind of falls apart when ARMS isn't really a shill pick. If it was advertisement for ARMS 2 it probably would have been announced by now.
ARMS 2 Could have been announced in E3...but due to what is currently going on I'm pretty sure things have changed. its possible it could be announced in the fall
 

TriggerX

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Who or what could it possibly be? Unless we're getting Splatoon 3 and they're gonna have all new weapons, it'd be an echo, and unless they want to commit false marketing, FP2 isn't going to have echoes. I don't see a Splatoon rep happening without a drastic gameplay change, not by a long shot.
lol that’s the thing about echoes, they are only echoes because Nintendo wants them to be echoes.Its just easier for development.
Even Daisy could have been given her own moveset if they wanted to.
Same with Dark Samus.
Even Ken could have deviated from Ryu more, although him being an echo makes a lot of sense.

As far as splatoon goes there are quite a few weapons in the game that aren’t touched on in smash. Another splatoon rep with their own moveset is definitely possible. I mean look at Isabelle and villager, some of their moves are similar but just different enough to not be considered echoes apparently.
 
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Geno Boost

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Alright , I usually don't do them... But I know everyone here pretty well , so might as well share my predicition for FP2. Once again , I'm not Sakurai , I'm just some random K.Rool/Olimar main from Normandy lol
View attachment 272918
ARMS : Well , we're getting an ARMS fighter. And honestly , while this choice is controversial , I'm betting on a hero situation with them. It would also be easier for advertising , you represent a complete franchise in a way. I feel like it's easier to sell the name "ARMS" than it is to sell "Min-Min" or "Max Brass" , but that's just me.

Geno : Check the list by PolarThieft + The insane fan demand.

Rayman : Ubisoft has been very weird with Smash as of late , and Rayman has been a favorite for Smash , on top of having a good history with Nintendo. I feel like it could finally be time for my limbless boy.

Isaac : I don't know if people are aware , but there's been some really weird stuff going behind the scenes with trademarks and stuff concerning GS. I'm fairly confident we could get some GS Duology remaster , and Isaac would come to promote it , and he would be fairly well recieved.

Lloyd : Obligatory Bamco rep , it's weird these guys got nothing after working on Smash for long. Heihachi could also work.

Waluigi : Yeah , I already putted Geno here. But I have the gut feeling that Waluigi is just going to be the final reveal. It would be an internet breaking reveal imo , and while Smash doesn't end on good final reveals... I simply have this gut feeling that Sakurai will say "*sigh*... It's really because I love my job. Have your lanky plumber."
i will be extremely happy about this!
3 of my most wanted characters are there!
 

Polarthief

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Remember when Fighter's Pass 1 was 3rd party only? That's equivalent to the claim you're making here. "It's happened before so it will happen again" is a fallacy. You can apply a lot of arguments to it, including Spirits and AT's. For good reasons, those are terrible arguments too.
Woah woah woah, that's quite a line. They never once said challenger packs will be 3rd party, but did explicitly say "we're not talking about echo fighters". Setting that as a precedent and not saying "btw echoes may be in this time" definitely sets up for massive disappointment if we suddenly get an echo out of nowhere. Echoes aren't remotely close to the amount of work needed to make a brand new character, especially if they're a 1 to 1 clone in terms of hitboxes, damage, mechanics, etc. Semi-clones like Lucas still do take plenty of work, especially since you need to tweak damage, hitboxes, and any other effects (even though I don't think they should be FP packs either), but straight up Echoes take very little in comparison. Charging the premium $5.99 (or a $5 chunk of the pass) for an echo would be insane. The backlash would be tremendous even if it was an echo that the community would like to see (of which though, I can't immediately think of any), and I'm not talking Byleth-level backlash, I'm talking beyond it. As a bonus character though, no one would bat an eye at that because they didn't pre-pay for it.

I do not see an echo appearing in the pass, just no way. I don't even see a (semi-)clone character happening.a

It's fine to not believe it's likely, but you can't claim misleading due to precedent and expect that to actually fly in court. They did not advertise the Fighter's Pass 2 as "No echoes" in any way, nor is it an official statement. So no, it would not be misleading.
Except it's the same as FP1 with one additional character. They advertised it the same, just without explicitly stating again that there aren't any echoes. Yes, I would absolutely claim that as misleading. If there is something different with FP2 in that we're getting explicitly less-quality characters but still paying the same price overall (well +$5, but we get an extra character), that's total BS. Even if the courts disagreed, it would still absolutely be misleading.

There's a far better reason to believe we aren't getting an Echo outside of a Bonus character or a special third pass(both of which are also significantly unlikely with Sakurai's own statement, but Nintendo could change their minds later too. I mean, they decided upon DLC later as well in general), and that's because they take significantly less work than a normal character, even a regular clone like Dr. Mario(who is still more unique than Ken, though not terribly better) is more work. That would mean we're paying a lot for an Echo when they're noted to be significantly less work. Sure, they're still work, but paying the same price as a normal character would feel odd. The thing is, they still take a lot of time to do and a lot of work compared to a Mii Costume or an Alternate Costume. So it wouldn't be misleading either way. It's still a character, stage, and music. And if lucky, a Spirit Board(which they didn't advertise either, but if you tried to take it to court "they added extra content" it wouldn't fly either. The spirit boards, if I remember right, didn't cost any money to download, so they're a bonus anyway. But more importantly, this doesn't affect your purchase. It's not comparable, to say, putting extra condiments on food that were not noted within the item, which can cause legitimate health issues). That's the level of difference. More generally does not count as false advertising unless it can legitimately affect you negatively(lol I hate spirits doesn't count).

Now keep in mind I don't think Echoes are coming, but it's due to the work needed and the price feels inflated too. ...I mean, Nintendo itself does overprice things. Years later and some games don't go down more than a few dollars(like 3) at some places. It's ridiculous. So I could see it being pulled off.
Yeah, like I said, I could totally see that happening (if we are getting bonuses). I'm still kinda surprised Birdo isn't in Smash as an echo/more-than-semi-clone of Yoshi (it would be kinda weird, but I think people would accept it).

Also they wouldn't charge the full $6, they'd probably be $4 at most (the returning veterans in Sm4sh were this price), potentially $5 if they came with a stage.

lol that’s the thing about echoes, they are only echoes because Nintendo wants them to be echoes.Its just easier for development.
Even Daisy could have been given her own moveset if they wanted to.
Same with Dark Samus.
Even Ken could have deviated from Ryu more, although him being an echo makes a lot of sense.

As far as splatoon goes there are quite a few weapons in the game that aren’t touched on in smash. Another splatoon rep with their own moveset is definitely possible. I mean look at Isabelle and villager, some of their moves are similar but just different enough to not be considered echoes apparently.
Okay and that's fine, but I don't see them doing even a semi-clone as an FP DLC pack. You can't claim these characters are "truly extras" and then be like "lul Splatoon 3 echo/clone". That just goes against what Sakurai has been saying. If you were planning to do a Splatoon 3 shill rep, you wouldn't be putting it in a pass that almost didn't even happen.
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Woah woah woah, that's quite a line. They never once said challenger packs will be 3rd party, but did explicitly say "we're not talking about echo fighters". Setting that as a precedent and not saying "btw echoes may be in this time" definitely sets up for massive disappointment if we suddenly get an echo out of nowhere. Echoes aren't remotely close to the amount of work needed to make a brand new character, especially if they're a 1 to 1 clone in terms of hitboxes, damage, mechanics, etc. Semi-clones like Lucas still do take plenty of work, especially since you need to tweak damage, hitboxes, and any other effects (even though I don't think they should be FP packs either), but straight up Echoes take very little in comparison. Charging the premium $5.99 (or a $5 chunk of the pass) for an echo would be insane. The backlash would be tremendous even if it was an echo that the community would like to see (of which though, I can't immediately think of any), and I'm not talking Byleth-level backlash, I'm talking beyond it. As a bonus character though, no one would bat an eye at that because they didn't pre-pay for it.
I don't see how this remotely applies to Pass 2 as any official statement. None of this is relevant to it. I can't find his original statement, but it's clear he meant Pass 1 by design. There was no Pass 2 when the statement was clearly made. So why should it apply to Pass 2 beyond precedent? That's literally the only thing going for it right now within your core argument.

I do not see an echo appearing in the pass, just no way. I don't even see a (semi-)clone character happening.
Cool. I don't either. I see no actual evidence to support it either.

Except it's the same as FP1 with one additional character. They advertised it the same, just without explicitly stating again that there aren't any echoes. Yes, I would absolutely claim that as misleading. If there is something different with FP2 in that we're getting explicitly less-quality characters but still paying the same price overall (well +$5, but we get an extra character), that's total BS. Even if the courts disagreed, it would still absolutely be misleading.
There's nothing misleading because they did not advertise it as "no Echoes". I can't find these statements with any Google Searches either, but I don't see how Pass 1 is equivalent to Pass 2. They're absolutely different statements, because only one legitimately says "No echoes". Likewise, we could also not get a Spirit Board, and since it wasn't advertised in either Pass, it wouldn't be misleading either. That's also the same situation here.

Yeah, like I said, I could totally see that happening (if we are getting bonuses). I'm still kinda surprised Birdo isn't in Smash as an echo/more-than-semi-clone of Yoshi (it would be kinda weird, but I think people would accept it).

Also they wouldn't charge the full $6, they'd probably be $4 at most (the returning veterans in Sm4sh were this price), potentially $5 if they came with a stage.
It depends how much music there is too. 6 dollars for all the work they do on the stages, characters, animations, and licensing music? 6 dollars is actually not unfair either.

As I said, you need to pull up these statements too(as I can't find the statement of "no Echo DLC" nor the statements around Pass 2's DLC criteria. I don't remember where they are, and Google is being impossible to work with). Since you're making a massive claim they're identical while they were never advertised as such. There's also a matter of wording. But "they didn't state it but it must be the same" is still a massive fallacy. No, that doesn't mean it must be the same. I stand by my original point; you're using precedent to determine this. 3rd party pass only is inferred identically to how much it's inferred to having no Echoes in Pass 2. They're the exact same kind of claim, a fallacious one based purely on precedent. Which isn't legitimate evidence. Keep in mind I do think the pricing point is in favor of no echoes, though I could see it happen. Echoes still take a lot of work too, so they would not be free in this game as DLC. It's debatable if they'd sell them at 6 dollars with tons of content too(I don't think they would, but I don't have any real evidence to back that up with confidence).
 

Qeomash

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Alright , I usually don't do them... But I know everyone here pretty well , so might as well share my predicition for FP2. Once again , I'm not Sakurai , I'm just some random K.Rool/Olimar main from Normandy lol
View attachment 272918
ARMS : Well , we're getting an ARMS fighter. And honestly , while this choice is controversial , I'm betting on a hero situation with them. It would also be easier for advertising , you represent a complete franchise in a way. I feel like it's easier to sell the name "ARMS" than it is to sell "Min-Min" or "Max Brass" , but that's just me.

Geno : Check the list by PolarThieft + The insane fan demand.

Rayman : Ubisoft has been very weird with Smash as of late , and Rayman has been a favorite for Smash , on top of having a good history with Nintendo. I feel like it could finally be time for my limbless boy.

Isaac : I don't know if people are aware , but there's been some really weird stuff going behind the scenes with trademarks and stuff concerning GS. I'm fairly confident we could get some GS Duology remaster , and Isaac would come to promote it , and he would be fairly well recieved.

Lloyd : Obligatory Bamco rep , it's weird these guys got nothing after working on Smash for long. Heihachi could also work.

Waluigi : Yeah , I already putted Geno here. But I have the gut feeling that Waluigi is just going to be the final reveal. It would be an internet breaking reveal imo , and while Smash doesn't end on good final reveals... I simply have this gut feeling that Sakurai will say "*sigh*... It's really because I love my job. Have your lanky plumber."
This would be the perfect roster for me. If Nintendo listened well to a lot of fans after the November direct, this is the second pass they would make.

This is a wonderful list, and I really hope even half of it comes true.
 

T2by4

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I judt don't see them revealing 3 at once, I just can't. 2 if we're REALLY lucky, but I genuinely think Sakurai is going to take his time and not show off characters that aren't fully ready. I think we'll get the ARMS rep and MAYBE one other character, three is just far too much for one showing.
 
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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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They also have it going on for 2 years straight. I expect ARMS and at most 1 character.

...Also, where is the statement that ARMS' character was delayed due to a moveset issue? I can't find the statement. Is it actually true or a theory?
 

Loliko YnT

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They also have it going on for 2 years straight. I expect ARMS and at most 1 character.

...Also, where is the statement that ARMS' character was delayed due to a moveset issue? I can't find the statement. Is it actually true or a theory?
The ARMS reveal stated they needed more development time due to their strecthy ARMS apparently. I think it's mostly beta testing and bug fixings , not moveset stuff.
 
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