Currently, yes. Nothing has really come up to change my thinking since January. Also, I might as well talk about Ubisoft and Tecmo too.
Ubisoft: Ubisoft is amazingly loyal but that may actually be its downside for Smash. When Nintendo's third party support in the N64 all but collapsed, Ubisoft was one of the few that stuck around. Even more impressively, they were pretty much onboard for both the Wii and Wii U, no questions asked. This all said, there really aren't any major Ubisoft series that aren't already in Nintendo's camp in some way except Far Cry, which is a FAR CRY from the Ubisoft series people want in Smash. Rayman is the runaway Ubisoft favorite but, from a business perspective, there's not much incentive.
Rayman has been a Nintendo loyal franchise since the N64. Rayman is the equivalent of the friend that's willing to drive you to the airport at 5 in the morning on a Saturday. They don't have to do much to prove their loyalty. Nintendo not only including Rayman cameos in the base game of Smash 4 and Ultimate but Miyamoto himself giving Ubisoft full on permission to do a Mario crossover game is proof enough that a fall out anytime soon isn't likely. In short, their relationship is rock solid and there's really no incentive to sweeten the deal with playable Rayman in Smash, again, especially in the light that Nintendo has okayed them to make official Mario games. Would it be a nice gesture? Yes but that's about it.
I'm actually glad we're on this topic because I don't think I've ever gone into the business logic of my six pack predictions and why they make sense in my eyes. A lot of people seem to think I just go with things because of rumors but, honestly, I think pretty in-depth into things before I lock in an opinion, sometimes to the point of overthinking things. That said, I want to go into my 6 company predictions since January:
Nintendo- Pretty obvious and a big reason why I was harping so hard on the likelihood that 6 would be Nintendo even before Season 2 was officially a thing. Nintendo using it's DLC to promote its own properties is definitely a "no ****" sort of line of thinking.
Square Enix- The history between Nintendo and Square is very interesting. Amazing relationship during the NES and SNES days, creating several games that are still considered the best in the JRPG genre to this day. Square then bounced to Sony starting with Final Fantasy VII and, not surprisingly, Nintendo was PISSED especially when FFVII was deemed an instant classic right off the shelf. In a professional businessman way, even Yamauchi (Nintendo's president until 2002) more or less said that Square Enix could eat his hot salty nuts until the sun exploded and the resulting N64 and GameCube days show why.
The N64 and GameCube are pretty much a desert for good JRPGs (and a big reason why Tales of Symphonia was such a big deal but more on that later). In one console generation Nintendo lost Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest to Sony and they were pretty upfront about their bitterness until Iwata started making honest efforts to patch things up with the major third parties that jumped ship. For the sake of brevity, Iwata's incrementalism approach worked and Square and Nintendo were back on good terms. Fast forward to the Switch and now Square is not only porting games like crazy but making the first high quality console JRPGs for Nintendo since the SNES. Needless to say, this is a huge deal.
Based on this, I don't think Nintendo and Square are done yet when it comes to Smash. Like I said, Nintendo now has the first brand new Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, and Square IPs on a Nintendo console in 20 years. Square pretty much corners the market on JRPGs and a Japanese company like Nintendo wanting them on their team is a no-brainer. Sony no longer has a monopoly on the genre and it's a huge business shift in tone.
Activision/Blizzard- The biggest Western developer in terms of revenue with enough iconic franchises you can name on two hands. Yet another company that wasn't particularly Nintendo loyal and mostly just flung over half assed ports until very recently and the relationship keeps getting better. Franchises like Crash and Overwatch are pretty obvious IPs that you want in your camp but so is the often dismissed mobile Goliath known as Candy Crush. The benefits of strengthening this relationship are about as upfront as you can get.
Namco- Like Ubisoft, Namco is one of the few third parties that's never really left Nintendo and has been one of its stronger partners since the GameCube. The relationship, however, could definitely be better and there's two franchises that Nintendo could definitely benefit from getting more support from: Tales and Tekken. Again, JRPGs and traditional fighting games are two genres that Nintendo often loses to Sony to do netting either or both has very obvious benefits.
Capcom- Capcom is probably the most iconic Japanese game company aside from Nintendo. Capcom has so many iconic IPs that it even flexes this by literally having a franchise called Capcom vs because there's so damn many. Capcom's loyalty to Nintendo, like Square, has a long and complicated history that's only really gotten back to the SNES glory days very recently. I strongly believe that Ryu in Smash 4 was basically Nintendo celebrating Street Fighter, the biggest traditional fighting game franchise, being back in their camp. Nintendo has wrangled over a good number of big Capcom franchises since the N64 days but there's one big prize that people often discount that has been a Sony megaton for almost two decades: Devil May Cry. Like Bayo in Smash 4, Nintendo has also struggled with having "mature" games in their camp forever so getting DMC to join the Nintendo party is definitely worth pursuing.
Microsoft- Nintendo and Microsoft haven't exactly been shy about it. A lot of their working together in the past couple of years has basically been a good ol' holly jolly **** you to Sony. The relationship is definitely quid pro quo up the butt because the two cover each others' weaknesses really well. Microsoft has a hard time appealing to kids and has a laughably bad install base in Asia meanwhile Nintendo's online infrastructure is kind of ass and, until very recently, had a super hard time getting "mature" genres like FPS and Western RPGs. The relationship is still young but the benefits have already been very obvious with plenty of room to grow. This is part of why I see Banjo as merely the beginning because you have two gaming juggernauts that have clicked extremely well in a short time and are both committed to tag-team-teabagging Sony whenever the opportunity comes up.
I get what you're stating, but I feel like stating that "companies can be too loyal, which hurts their chances to get into Smash" is pretty faulty. Sure, Square Enix and Nintendo had a pretty bad relationship during the N64-Gamecube era; but by the time the Wii rolled around, their relationship was ok. For example, TWEWY which was published by Square came out in 2007 and DQ 9 came out in 2009. Those were both for the DS, because let's be honest Nintendo hardware sucks in terms of graphics, which is why we don't see some of the technically demanding games like FF13/DMC on the Wii. But we saw plenty of support less demanding titles like Mega-Man and Ace Attorney on the DS.
That support continued for the 3DS for the most part, Ace Attorney continued and Square ported all the playstation exclusive games like DQ 7 and 8 to the 3DS. Square also created the Bravely series, Atlus made SMT IV and SMT IV Apocalypse. But again, most of the technically demanding games pretty much went straight to PS4/Xbox One. The Wii U was a failure, so no wonder why devs decided to skip on it.
Then you have the Switch, which is not a failure in terms of sales; and it can run ports of PS2/PS3 games just fine (for the most part). Now we start seeing some of the games that the Wii couldn't run make their way to the Switch; the DMC ports, Tales of Vesperia, FF10, FF12, etc. Square also released the Definitive Edition of DQ11, a good chunk of FF ports, and Nintendo also helped publish TWEWY Final Remix. Obviously we won't see games like FF7R or Tomb Raider on a Nintendo console anytime soon due to technical limitations, but their output has been nothing short of stellar. Really outside of something like the KH remasters, Square has released most of their big games post 2000 on the Switch in some way (unless the Switch can't run it).
Namco has published the Dark Souls remaster, the Dragonball games, and Tales of Vesperia. Most of the games they've skipped out on porting are again too technically demanding for the Switch. I doubt we're getting Tekken 7 or Tales of Arise due to that reason.
Currently the Switch is doing so well, that no "big" publisher is going to skip out on the Switch, unless it's impossible to port it. For example a Crash game is rumored to be in development as a PS5 launch title (exclusivity deals aside) chances are we won't see it coming on the Switch simply because of technical demand. The same could be said of something like Diablo 4 from Blizzard. Outside of something like DQ 12, chances are that most of these series are going to skip out on the Switch. It's not because of loyalty, but rather it's technically unfeasible for them to improve graphics and then port it to the Switch.
Don't get me wrong improving relationships between companies is probably factored into 3rd part fighter choices, but most of the companies you've listed already have a "good enough" relationship with Nintendo. If Square/Activision/Microsoft/Namco/Capcom get 1 DLC fighter, they're not going to suddenly start magically supporting Nintendo even more, simply because a ton of money lies in the other consoles.
Really only smaller companies will change their output in any noticeable way. A ton of times, these companies don't really have the resources to port their games to the Switch; and it's a risky proposition to actually port a niche series to an entirely new system. If relationships were a big factor in deciding which 3rd part companies to put in Smash, we'd be seeing more companies like SNK making their way into Smash. So we'd be seeing companies like NIS, Level-5, Spike Chunsoft, and Falcom getting reps in Smash.
