pinshadow
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Nov 29, 2019
- Messages
- 1,479
I've got time to kill, might as well post my prediction list and overly explain it as well.
As for anyone who's not on here, I don't see it. I'm sticking pretty firm on this for now so unless something drastic happens with some other character these are who I feel actually has a shot.
- Isn't this just Fatman's prediction list?
- ARMS : Well, I did have "Random First-Party Pick" as one of the three characters in the "Mystery Box" Slot of my Original Prediction List, and that sure got filled in quickly didn't it? I have no real guesses on who the character is other than that it's almost certainly an upgrade, but there is a lot about the slot itself to think about. We were right on the money with the "Nintendo puts themselves first" idea it seems, but I think people are taking this as a sign of what the whole pass will be like, and I think that's jumping the gun quite a bit. We don't even know WHO the character is yet or why Nintendo chose to put them in. I'm sticking with the idea that "The character was chosen early-mid 2019, Nintendo wanted a character from a popular first-party Switch game to start the pass, and ARMS just so happens to be the best selling Switch game without a character in Smash at the time. 2 million is nothing to scoff at and it DID outsell Xenoblade 2. I don't personally see another first-party character in the pass, and certainly not more than two.
- Geno : You're in the Geno thread, you probably already know why I think he's in.
- Dante : Nintendo is pushing the series and it's on a big comeback, especially around last year when characters were being chosen for this Pass. Only real competition I suppose is Monster Hunter but I see both Nintendo and especially Sakurai picking Dante over them.
- Namco Rep : Weird. On one hand I feel like if Nintendo was interested in a Namco rep they would have been added already given they are literally working on the game, why change their mind now? The only real leg supporting them is the missing Mii Costumes. On the other hand, that's one giant red flag of a leg. Probably Lloyd or Heihachi, seeing how things play out.
- Crash : Big Western Character with decent popularity in Japan, on a massive comeback, super popular, decent relationship between Activision and Nintendo, feels like a no-brainer.
- Master Chief : On one hand, completely insane. On the other, feels too insane not to happen. I'm still all in on the Halo Switch rumors, given how everything has played out between Microsoft and Nintendo so far, and I just can't see the opportunity to have Chief in smash there for Nintendo and them passing that up.
Characters I feel somewhat confident in but not as much as the other 5.
- Travis : Nintendo is pushing No More Heroes 3 really hard, is distributing the game outside of Japan, it seems like a no brainer. On the other hand though, I get this weird feeling Travis is just destined to get the short end of the stick and get spirited or a mii costume. As much as he makes sense I just can't feel it. Will happily be wrong.
- Sol : FGC Rep, ARC has a decent presense on Switch, 20th anniversary, could happen. River City Ransom spirits are the deal breaker though. On one hand, we know 100% Arc System Works has talked with Nintendo about Smash in someway. On the other hand, why would they release those Spirits now instead of with Sol later? Well to promote the collection I suppose, but it just feels REALLY weird and I can't tell if it's a good or bad thing.
Coooould happen, but I don't think are likely.
- Rex : Don't count your chickens before they hatch. All I'm saying is that it was Rex who got that Mii Costume with the pass, not Spring Man, yet Nintendo still put an ARMS rep in first. If Sakurai was in charge I'd say he's a lock, with Nintendo? We'll see.
- Arle : If we get another Sega rep it's her, sorry Kiryu. Popular on Switch, big franchise, but at the same time I don't see her getting in over the other picks.
- Monokuma : Maybe? Spike Chunsoft has a decent relationship with Nintendo, but still, Daganronpa doesn't seem to be heading to Switch anytime soon. You can argue he's in the same boat as Joker but Sega was already involved with Smash, and Atlus has arguably a better relationship
- Steve : Minecraft is the biggest indie game ever made. (Yes, it counts as one and the fact you might have thought to debate that shows just how massively popular and influential it is.) It was also going through a massive resurgance last year. Still, I don't see Nintendo picking him over Master Chief
- Bravely Default rep : I see all you worried about Sora, about 2B, about Lara, and, for reasons I cannot for the life of me understand, even Sephiroth (I could make a whole post about how stupid I think that is, seriously). Meanwhile I'm just sitting here looking at Bravely Default 2 like "Oh no Nintendo please don't" What's that? A Square RPG being pushed super heavily on Switch by Nintendo, as if It were a first party game? It got revealed at the Game Awards? It got almost 5 minutes to itself in a Direct? WHERE HAVE I SEEN THIS BEFORE? . Look, I still think Geno is coming, but if any other Square character gets in, they are going to be from Bravely Default 2. It's been in development since 2018, so it would be far in development by the time they were picking characters. I can see the timeline where Nintendo goes for it and it scares the hell out of me.
- Pokemon Rep : Don't personally see it, especially don't want it, but it COULD happen I suppose.
- Random First-Party Rep : Moving over from the Mystery Box/Backup Slot, I'm way less confident in Nintendo doing another "ARMS". Maybe they will, but I don't see it.
You know why he gets his own slot. He's a complete enigma where it makes perfect, absolute sense for him to get in, and at the same time to not get in. I will be both completely unsuprised if he does or does not make it in. He's Waluigi.
As for anyone who's not on here, I don't see it. I'm sticking pretty firm on this for now so unless something drastic happens with some other character these are who I feel actually has a shot.