Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[Heoj]

If you think king boo has a chance thats fine, but if you ask me i just cant see it happening at all. If sakurai/nintendo were to go for another mario character its going to geno in my opinion. I also think waluigi and paper mario have somewhat of a chance but its not much.
I just dont see king boo happening and i feel like the whole deal with the spirits is just that the luigis mansion 3 dev team didnt feel the need for a lm3 spirit event.

 

[Sigran101]

In fairness, because I'm sure this was a first-past-the-post voting system (which is by far the worst kind of voting system), where would the votes for KKR, BK, Ridley, etc go now that they aren't needed to be for anymore? 20% of the vote alone went to KKR, Ridley, and BK, which is extremely substantial.



I... wow. You sure your confidence in King Boo isn't just a bit... biased? I'm not saying it is, but for a missing spirit event to give a 50% chance for him, that's very substantial compared to just 10% more for Geno's evidence; just very surprising to me.

I also really don't care if King Boo makes it in or not; he's not on my ****list, and I won't give a crap who makes it in if Geno does. I do agree it's weird LM3 didn't get a spirit event, but I think you might be reading a touch too much into it. I'll gladly admit to being wrong if he makes it though and I will personally ping you in an apology.

Haha, thanks. Actually I didn't want King Boo until after I became confident in him. I thought he would be kind of a garbage choice until I went to his thread to express how likely I thought he was and saw some movesets posted there, so I would say my confidence is actually not biased.

Will we probably get a LM3 spirit event once the next DLC drops? Most likely.

Will we get King Boo in Smash? Microscopic chance, much like I would've said about Piranha Plant. But let's not get too pattern-y, one Mario enemy as bonus DLC that no one asked for doesn't make another one likely.

Just to be clear, this is a ****post right?

 

[Freduardo]

A) The seventh installment in the most iconic of Final Fantasy, so if we are getting another FF character, it will without a doubt be from that game, be it either Sepiroth or Tifa.
B) Sora would still be Disney
C) Who says that Sepiroth (or Tifa) can¨t join in with Geno if Nintendo really wants to?

A) I’d say that’s with a doubt. Six certainly rivals Seven in iconicness.

 

[Polarthief]

I also think waluigi and paper mario have somewhat of a chance but its not much.

If we're getting bonus characters, I think Wah has quite a substantial chance. PM has a rumored game (that's also a much-needed return-to-form) upcoming, so I could see him getting in too, but Geno simply has way more evidence.

FTR: I don't see King Boo coming either though, just wanted to comment on this one point of yours.

Haha, thanks. Actually I didn't want King Boo until after I became confident in him. I thought he would be kind of a garbage choice until I went to his thread to express how likely I thought he was and saw some movesets posted there, so I would say my confidence is actually not biased.

Fair enough; at the end of the day, we're all just posting our opinions at each other and what we think is and isn't. You think is, I think isn't, and I guess we'll see in the next yearish or so.

 

[Sigran101]

If we're getting bonus characters, I think Wah has quite a substantial chance. PM has a rumored game (that's also a much-needed return-to-form) upcoming, so I could see him getting in too, but Geno simply has way more evidence.

FTR: I don't see King Boo coming either though, just wanted to comment on this one point of yours.



Fair enough; at the end of the day, we're all just posting our opinions at each other and what we think is and isn't. You think is, I think isn't, and I guess we'll see in the next yearish or so.

Exactly Too bad more people don't have this mindset. Take notes everyone. This is what's called "respectful disagreement". (Not saying ya'll weren't respectful, just generally something a lot of people need to learn).

 

[Polarthief]

Not saying ya'll weren't respectful, just generally something a lot of people need to learn

Nah **** me, I'm always disrespectful as hell. I really, really do think your confidence is a bit... ... I need a better word than just "overconfident", but that's all I got. But hey, it's your mindset and I can't really prove otherwise.

In the same vein though, I'm probably overconfident by saying Geno's in with a like 99.9% chance (with the last .1% being that annoying paranoia and anxiety I have to live with).

 

[Let Geno Smash]

If we're getting bonus characters, I think Wah has quite a substantial chance. PM has a rumored game (that's also a much-needed return-to-form) upcoming, so I could see him getting in too, but Geno simply has way more evidence.

FTR: I don't see King Boo coming either though, just wanted to comment on this one point of yours.



Fair enough; at the end of the day, we're all just posting our opinions at each other and what we think is and isn't. You think is, I think isn't, and I guess we'll see in the next yearish or so.

If we have bonus i think WAH will be a matter of time

 

[Organization XIII]

If this thing held any real water, then why hasn't Banana Dee, Crash, Decidueye, Shantae or Isaac been added as fighters yet?

Uh what? With the exception of Decidueye who lost his popularity the moment Inceniroar was announced as is the trend with the fad pokemon for each game (anyone else remember the Sceptile support in 4 and not to mention who the favorite Pokemon was didn't decide was added in Ultimate) and Crash who gained way more popularity post base Ultimate all those characters have been insanely popular in spec for a while. The reasons they weren't included could be a large variety of factors the least of which is that fan favorite characters do make up the smallest part what is added. There's all sorts of marketing and personal choices that could have kept these fighters out. Now as for the poll it's certainly representative of Source Gaming's fans' taste and they usually do have a different response than the general fanbase. In fact in a more general polls those you called out would usually place much higher.

 

[Polarthief]

If we have bonus i think WAH will be a matter of time

Honestly, Wah's chances skyrocket if we have bonuses. Not 99.9% like Geno , but still really good chances. Also who knows, Sakurai could be the one to make a real character out of him before Nintendo bothered to.

 

[Firox]

Uh what? With the exception of Decidueye who lost his popularity the moment Inceniroar was announced as is the trend with the fad pokemon for each game (anyone else remember the Sceptile support in 4 and not to mention who the favorite Pokemon was didn't decide was added in Ultimate) and Crash who gained way more popularity post base Ultimate all those characters have been insanely popular in spec for a while. The reasons they weren't included could be a large variety of factors the least of which is that fan favorite characters do make up the smallest part what is added. There's all sorts of marketing and personal choices that could have kept these fighters out. Now as for the poll it's certainly representative of Source Gaming's fans' taste and they usually do have a different response than the general fanbase. In fact in a more general polls those you called out would usually place much higher.

That's my point. Firstly, I understand all too well that there's a lot more than popularity that goes into character additions. Secondly, as you said, this poll shows a very different picture from the more general polls which leads me to question its large-scale legitimacy. It takes an aggregate of high-visibility polls to confirm how "wanted" a character really is.

 

[Icewolff92]

A) I’d say that’s with a doubt. Six certainly rivals Seven in iconicness.

I have to disagree on that part. Is it big? Yes, but that's mostly within FF circles. With FF7, you knew the big deals about it even if you had not played it.

 

[UberPyro64]

I have a question for Fatmanonice .

There was a problem fetching the tweet

According to this, Nintendo had an interview with Valve at some point and offered them six figures to make an exclusive game for Switch. Nintendo must really like and respect Valve to do this, and perhaps to the point of wanting to put a character in Smash. So my question is, what are the chances that Gordon is that western character you said you heard about?

 

[Let Geno Smash]

I have a question for Fatmanonice .

There was a problem fetching the tweet

According to this, Nintendo had an interview with Valve at some point and offered them six figures to make an exclusive game for Switch. Nintendo must really like and respect Valve to do this, and perhaps to the point of wanting to put a character in Smash. So my question is, what are the chances that Gordon is that western character you said you heard about?

IDK, Gabe Newell is open to the idea and he claim he love nintendo and his favorite game of all time is SM64 but HL is just soooo oscure in japan

 

[Organization XIII]

That's my point. Firstly, I understand all too well that there's a lot more than popularity that goes into character additions. Secondly, as you said, this poll shows a very different picture from the more general polls which leads me to question its large-scale legitimacy. It takes an aggregate of high-visibility polls to confirm how "wanted" a character really is.

Yes very true it was just the example of why "x other characters didn't get in if they were so popular" that bugged me since that's not really how it worked.

 

[UberPyro64]

IDK, Gabe Newell is open to the idea and he claim he love nintendo and his favorite game of all time is SM64 but HL is just soooo oscure in japan

But it is very well respected among developers there including Sakurai. Even receiving DLC content in Death Stranding and Final Fantasy XV.

 

[Icewolff92]

According to this, Nintendo had an interview with Valve at some point and offered them six figures to make an exclusive game for Switch. Nintendo must really like and respect Valve to do this, and perhaps to the point of wanting to put a character in Smash. So my question is, what are the chances that Gordon is that western character you said you heard about?

While that could be quite insane if Nintendo manages to have Valve make a Switch Exclusive... what the heck is the supposed source suppose to be?

 

[link2702]

I have a question for Fatmanonice .

There was a problem fetching the tweet

According to this, Nintendo had an interview with Valve at some point and offered them six figures to make an exclusive game for Switch. Nintendo must really like and respect Valve to do this, and perhaps to the point of wanting to put a character in Smash. So my question is, what are the chances that Gordon is that western character you said you heard about?

While I wouldn't mind a valve character, I do kinda hope it's a TF2 character instead of gordon.

I get that half-life is a huge series and derserves the praise it gets, but TF2 was kinda what set the standard for team based FPS games. Not to mention all their characters would fit flawlessly into smash since they're all goofy cartoon styled characters and not a more realistic one like Freeman.

But at the end of the day I really wouldn't be "unhappy" with either, and like I've said in the past, so long as Geno makes it, I'm not too concerned about who else get's in..

 

[Icewolff92]

So they have removed that tweet as well as the article...

 

[Nicnac]

Sakurai's praised Half-Life in the past, hasn't he? Things may be looking up a bit for Gordon, unlikely as he seems. Also, if Gordon gets in, would they add Master Chief on top of that? Both series are unpopular and obscure Japan, aren't they? They'd both be real cool but I can't see them both in one pass.

 

[Deleted member]

I’m not too worried about King Boo. I don’t see how a fairly popular non-playable villain is going to boost sales of a game even Luigi is the biggest star of the game. But I think both Boo and Geno could happen.

 

[UberPyro64]

So they have removed that tweet as well as the article...

Yep.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Who knows for sure, really. But it's interesting if true.

 

[Fatmanonice]

I do think they're holding off Luigi's Mansion 3 spirits for some reason. It's almost been six months since the game came out and even third party releases are getting recognition before it. It's officially been longer than Three Houses' gap and, based on how this typically goes, we're not getting our next spirit event for another two weeks, making the gap even wider. There is the fact that Luigi's Mansion 3's final DLC is still scheduled for July so there's a slight chance it's being held off for that given how Ring Fit more or less got its to celebrate the free DLC dump recently.

I've already shared this on Discord but people on my end have been saying multiple first party characters are eventually happening since about January and in the past week a few more people I talk to are now supporting this view. This is probably the only noteworthy development in like the last two months. I mention this because I've always been of the mind that we're only getting one "Nintendo" pack so I think we may be in for some cheeky shenanigans for Pack 6. I also mention this because, as far as first party Mii costume rumors, there's literally one and it's backed by Mii Costume Guy: Gooigi. It's been the elephant in the room as far as Mii costume rumors go because all the other companies I'm predicting have had multiple Mii costume rumors and there's even been about half a dozen noteworthy Indies floating around. Some companies may have had their entire Mii costume lineups leaked but Nintendo's potentially had one and it's not exactly earthshaking (sorry Gooigi fans). We already saw this with Byleth but Nintendo hardcore tries to keep things from getting out so if the only thing that's largely come out is Super Vague **** 64, it begs the question of what else is coming.

I also mention this because the topic of DLC spirits has put a huge question mark on who the other first party characters could possibly be. Except for Luigi's Mansion 3, all the major Nintendo games from Ultimate's release to the present have been represented. That said, additional first party characters aren't likely to be purely promotional characters ala Byleth but probably prrrrrrromotions of stuff that was in the base game or even things that are outright missing that slipped under the radar. What's intriguing is that, in all my time doing this, the vague rumors where people have to practically go in with an ice pick to get tiny chunks of information tend to wind up being the ones that wind up true.

"We're probably getting 2-3 first party characters by the time this is all over."

Any idea who?

"**** if I know..."

There were a couple of people who correctly knew ARMS but that's still wild to me because there's no consensus on who even four months later and just how locked down Nintendo info is. It also begs the question if this is actual intel or going with past precedent. The Fighter's Pass and Smash 4 DLC had multiple "Nintendo" characters so is it a fair assumption that Season 2 will getting at least 2, especially in the light that Plant was a bonus and Byleth was a full pack in the Fighter's Pass? Looking at the history of both is interesting because both Byleth and Plant technically leaked months in advance but weren't believed by anyone and we may be seeing a repeat of history with this super vague "2-3 first party character" rumor.

 

[Firox]

Yes very true it was just the example of why "x other characters didn't get in if they were so popular" that bugged me since that's not really how it worked.

Yeah, no worries. I was just playing devil's advocate for a second.

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

I do think they're holding off Luigi's Mansion 3 spirits for some reason. It's almost been six months since the game came out and even third party releases are getting recognition before it. It's officially been longer than Three Houses' gap and, based on how this typically goes, we're not getting our next spirit event for another two weeks, making the gap even wider. There is the fact that Luigi's Mansion 3's final DLC is still scheduled for July so there's a slight chance it's being held off for that given how Ring Fit more or less got its to celebrate the free DLC dump recently.

I've already shared this on Discord but people on my end have been saying multiple first party characters are eventually happening since about January and in the past week a few more people I talk to are now supporting this view. This is probably the only noteworthy development in like the last two months. I mention this because I've always been of the mind that we're only getting one "Nintendo" pack so I think we may be in for some cheeky shenanigans for Pack 6. I also mention this because, as far as first party Mii costume rumors, there's literally one and it's backed by Mii Costume Guy: Gooigi. It's been the elephant in the room as far as Mii costume rumors go because all the other companies I'm predicting have had multiple Mii costume rumors and there's even been about half a dozen noteworthy Indies floating around. Some companies may have had their entire Mii costume lineups leaked but Nintendo's potentially had one and it's not exactly earthshaking (sorry Gooigi fans). We already saw this with Byleth but Nintendo hardcore tries to keep things from getting out so if the only thing that's largely come out is Super Vague **** 64, it begs the question of what else is coming.

I also mention this because the topic of DLC spirits has put a huge question mark on who the other first party characters could possibly be. Except for Luigi's Mansion 3, all the major Nintendo games from Ultimate's release to the present have been represented. That said, additional first party characters aren't likely to be purely promotional characters ala Byleth but probably prrrrrrromotions of stuff that was in the base game or even things that are outright missing that slipped under the radar. What's intriguing is that, in all my time doing this, the vague rumors where people have to practically go in with an ice pick to get tiny chunks of information tend to wind up being the ones that wind up true.

"We're probably getting 2-3 first party characters by the time this is all over."

Any idea who?

"**** if I know..."

There were a couple of people who correctly knew ARMS but that's still wild to me because there's no consensus on who even four months later and just how locked down Nintendo info is. It also begs the question if this is actual intel or going with past precedent. The Fighter's Pass and Smash 4 DLC had multiple "Nintendo" characters so is it a fair assumption that Season 2 will getting at least 2, especially in the light that Plant was a bonus and Byleth was a full pack in the Fighter's Pass? Looking at the history of both is interesting because both Byleth and Plant technically leaked months in advance but weren't believed by anyone and we may be seeing a repeat of history with this super vague "2-3 first party character" rumor.

Im just happy First Parties are back on the table, at least for now.

 

[maf91186]

On the topic of spirits anyone know when the hell the River City spirits will show up again on the Spirit Board?

I just got them earlier this week. Astral Chain spirits as well.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Im just happy First Parties are back on the table, at least for now.

They are and they aren't because, like I've demonstrated, nobody agrees on the nature it. As I've argued, I think we're getting a Nintendo pack and two Nintendo bonuses at some point but not a ton of people are backing me on this. Some people are arguing that the characters are coming with their own packs with one guy even arguing 3 of the 6 will be Nintendo. I personally don't see this happening. Either way, there's now a consensus that ARMS is not the end of Nintendo content in Smash DLC, even if we can't directly name what it's supposed to be.

 

[SpiritOfRuin]

This is actually a pretty big hit to the idea that Square forced Nintendo to not bring back the Geno costume with Hero due to their high horse. There's hardly an excuse as to why the costume didn't come back with Hero anymore really.


Anyway though pulls out whiteboard
If we factor in how much I don't want Geno multiplied by the Rogerbase variable, carry the irrelevancy coefficient and square that by the "FF remake shill", that should come out to a 110% chance that Geno is deconfirmed and Sephiroth or Tifa will get in over him inevitably.
So don't worry, Geno is actually still deconfirmed. Cry more, Genobabies B)

Darn you math!

 

[Firox]

Anyway though pulls out whiteboard
If we factor in how much I don't want Geno multiplied by the Rogerbase variable, carry the irrelevancy coefficient and square that by the "FF remake shill", that should come out to a 110% chance that Geno is deconfirmed and Sephiroth or Tifa will get in over him inevitably.
So don't worry, Geno is actually still deconfirmed. Cry more, Genobabies B)

C'mon, Woomy, are you nuts? You can't be demonstrating such a ludricrously false method of arithmetic.......

Everyone knows that the proper formula is length + girth TIMES weight divided by the "yaw". That'll give you the real deconfirmation index, or DMI.

(60 awesome points to anyone that catches this obscure South Park reference)

 

[Sigran101]

They are and they aren't because, like I've demonstrated, nobody agrees on the nature it. As I've argued, I think we're getting a Nintendo pack and two Nintendo bonuses at some point but not a ton of people are backing me on this. Some people are arguing that the characters are coming with their own packs with one guy even arguing 3 of the 6 will be Nintendo. I personally don't see this happening. Either way, there's now a consensus that ARMS is not the end of Nintendo content in Smash DLC, even if we can't directly name what it's supposed to be.

So aside from leaks and all that, who would you personally guess for three theoretical Nintendo characters?

 

[Vector Victor]

Third parties are great and all, but there's still so many Nintendo-related characters that they should use instead first.

-FE door starts to open-

NO.

Seeing the idea of Gordon Freedman or a TF character in Smash just rubbed me the wrong way, apology to their fans. Its cool, but.....I don't know. I feel other characters should get focus first, like Dixie, Geno, Isaac, Pikmin, Kamek, Xenoblade. I just don't want this pass being just third party.

 

[Let Geno Smash]

hey Fatmanonice, what do you think of the Lol Leak?
If you don't understand, a guy in January said that
-We will see Spirits of Mana (Ready)
-One of the following DLC's is from LOL
- There will be a premium mii of the Hollow Knight with a Remix of Sealed vessel
What do you think?
BTW: Vergeben is searching for information about this

 

[Nicnac]

So aside from leaks and all that, who would you personally guess for three theoretical Nintendo characters?

Waluigi, Dixie/Bandana Dee and Isaac, assuming that ATs and Spirits are fair game.

 

[MisterMike]

So aside from leaks and all that, who would you personally guess for three theoretical Nintendo characters?

1. Well we already got ARMS person coming to the game, so that's one.
2. Second I'd say Rex & Pyra. They were already considered for base game but couldn't be added due to their game not being out at the time, so I could totally see Sakurai going back and adding them in now.
3. Waluigi. If this is the last DLC for Smash Ultimate, then they'd be crazy not to go out with a bang like this.

 

[Fatmanonice]

hey Fatmanonice, what do you think of the Lol Leak?
If you don't understand, a guy in January said that
-We will see Spirits of Mana (Ready)
-One of the following DLC's is from LOL
- There will be a premium mii of the Hollow Knight with a Remix of Sealed vessel
What do you think?
BTW: Vergeben is searching for information about this

I can back up the Hollow Knight thing because that's an indie Mii Costume Guy backs too. No clue on the LOL stuff.

So aside from leaks and all that, who would you personally guess for three theoretical Nintendo characters?

The ARMS rep (I'm currently siding with Min-Min), Waluigi, and probably Lolo. I side with Lolo for a number reasons. I've talked about one but two others are its HAL's 40th birthday and they're making a big deal about it and, for a game that now had close to 1.5k spirits spanning video game history and is a game developed by HAL itself, the fact that there's no Adventure of Lolo spirits yet is pretty in your face. I decided to look into it more and Lolo has never been in Smash EVER. For HAL's original mascot and the fact that they've been behind all the Smash games makes this really strange to me.

 

[Let Geno Smash]

I can back up the Hollow Knight thing because that's an indie Mii Costume Guy backs too. No clue on the LOL stuff.



The ARMS rep (I'm currently siding with Min-Min), Waluigi, and probably Lolo. I side with Lolo for a number reasons. I've talked about one but two others are its HAL's 40th birthday and they're making a big deal about it and, for a game that now had close to 1.5k spirits spanning video game history and is a game developed by HAL itself, the fact that there's no Adventure of Lolo spirits yet is pretty in your face. I decided to look into it more and Lolo has never been in Smash EVER. For HAL's original mascot and the fact that they've been behind all the Smash games makes this really strange to me.

Ok, i will wait until vergeben talk

 

[Nopote]

Ok, i will wait until vergeben talk

My personal gut feeling right now is that this is one of those leaks that are only mostly right as a means of deflection, or at the very least make some plausible safe guesses before going for a really out there pick. My gut feeling could be wrong here, of course, but otherwise who really knows what's going on fighter-wise?

 

[Polarthief]

That said, additional first party characters aren't likely to be purely promotional characters ala Byleth but probably prrrrrrromotions of stuff that was in the base game or even things that are outright missing that slipped under the radar. What's intriguing is that, in all my time doing this, the vague rumors where people have to practically go in with an ice pick to get tiny chunks of information tend to wind up being the ones that wind up true.

"We're probably getting 2-3 first party characters by the time this is all over."

Any idea who?

"**** if I know..."

Honestly, unless they wanna go with someone like Birdo, the only ones I can immediately think of is:
- ARMS obviously
- WAAAAAH (closest to most obvious)
- Isaac? (possible)
- Zelda or Kirby rep?

They are and they aren't because, like I've demonstrated, nobody agrees on the nature it. As I've argued, I think we're getting a Nintendo pack and two Nintendo bonuses at some point but not a ton of people are backing me on this. Some people are arguing that the characters are coming with their own packs with one guy even arguing 3 of the 6 will be Nintendo. I personally don't see this happening. Either way, there's now a consensus that ARMS is not the end of Nintendo content in Smash DLC, even if we can't directly name what it's supposed to be.

Wah is like, the only first party that really feels "missing". Zelda and Kirby reps should get more love, but I feel like Waluigi is the massive frontrunner for first-party picks after base had him deconfirmed. Isaac is also a weird ??? since he's kinda in Geno's tier, maybe a step or two down.

The ARMS rep (I'm currently siding with Min-Min), Waluigi, and probably Lolo. I side with Lolo for a number reasons. I've talked about one but two others are its HAL's 40th birthday and they're making a big deal about it and, for a game that now had close to 1.5k spirits spanning video game history and is a game developed by HAL itself, the fact that there's no Adventure of Lolo spirits yet is pretty in your face. I decided to look into it more and Lolo has never been in Smash EVER. For HAL's original mascot and the fact that they've been behind all the Smash games makes this really strange to me.

Really Lolo? That's an interesting old-school pick... I guess you could also spin it as a Kirby rep too, even though he'll likely not have the Kirby star. Could also alt-costume him for Lala too? I've never played Adventures of Lolo so I have no clue what his kit is, but if he doesn't have enough of one, they could take some influence from his Kirby debut as "Lololo" (why did they add an extra "lo" to his name anyway?), such as doing stuff with blocks and Gordo.

I can back up the Hollow Knight thing because that's an indie Mii Costume Guy backs too.

BRUH, that's AWESOME.

Second I'd say Rex & Pyra. They were already considered for base game but couldn't be added due to their game not being out at the time, so I could totally see Sakurai going back and adding them in now.

I keep being dumb and forgetting Rex. Because of ARMS and Byleth, it would be so weird if Rex doesn't get in (not that I really care about him though).

 

[Droodle]

I think it's important for people to try and get inside Nintendo's head right now. If you were an exec for Nintendo and you wanted to sell DLC characters for a high profile game, what would your motives be?

1) Promote an upcoming game or franchise
2) Boost sales/awareness for the resurgence of an older/underselling title
3) Boost sales of the DLC itself by offering what the majority of the player base wants to buy

With 6 (techinically 5 now) slots of DLC left, which of these three would you choose? Answer: Something that preferrably knocks out at least two at a time. That said, here's my take (yes, just my own opinion) with regards to some of our most discussed potential DLC...

-Geno: Would count towards 2 and 3 with his inclusion undeniably counting towards long-standing fan service. He could potentially unviel SMRPG on the Switch Virtual Console or even a new remake/remaster of his original game to fulfill the marketing bonus of category 2.

-Waluigi: Would certainly count towards 3 but wouldn't really apply to 1 or 2 since he's never really had a game of his own (nor does he have one coming in the forseeable future). Granted, B-K had a couple of historic games under their belt, but given their status of being 3rd party with no games (future or past) to promote, fan service alone seems to be capable of swinging a character. ***Mind you, B-K was statistically PROVEN to be a highly demanded character via multiple high-sample polls. To my knowledge, the Wah has not seen a comparable presence until MAYBE recently.***

-ARMS: I strongly argue that this falls solely under category 2. Unless someone provides objective evidence to the contrary, it would appear that categories 1 and 2 are powerful enough to get a character added individually (hence Byleth, Corrin, Pokemon of the Week, the ARMS rep themselves, etc.). If ARMS 2 gets unveiled at E3, it will actually make even more sense since the ARMs rep will then meet both cats 1 AND 2.

-King Boo: Unfortunately, I honestly don't see him falling into any of the three categories. He wouldn't be promoting an upcoming game because it's already been released. He wouldn't be bolstering an older/weak franchise because LM3 is already a powerhouse. Finally, he wouldn't really count as "fan service" either since I'm pretty sure that he hasn't made a significant showing on ANY of the character polls I've seen nor has Nintendo put forth any kind of effort to increase awareness of him outside of being a semi-recurring boss in the Mario Franchise. This, coupled with the already over-saturated Mario roster in Smash really doesn't make him seem very likely to me. Then again, we got landed with Plant, so who the hell knows anyway?



LOL Wait, wait. So you cite a poll where Springman beat out both Geno AND Sora while the likes of Banana Dee/Shovel Knight beat out Banjo-Kazooie....and you think it's LEGIT?! ROFLMAO This poll is hilariously skewed. I'm curious what this sample group's demographic was. It's like going to UC Berkely and holding a popularity poll for Trump. If this thing held any real water, then why hasn't Banana Dee, Crash, Decidueye, Shantae or Isaac been added as fighters yet? Also note that ARMS was still relatively fresh in 2018 and we didn't see the first round of newcomers for Ultimate until August 2018. Amazing to see how expectations change over time.

While I absolutely do not think King Boo is getting in, I feel as though the categories you chose are hilariously in favor of Geno rather then being how an actual executive would think like. There are dozens of more factors then that involved in executives deciding which DLC is worth it comparitively to just the 3 examples you picked. In fact, those all likely just play a much, much smaller part then the things you are ignoring. Things like future potential, general popularity/recognizability, investment in securing rights, and much more also play a roll in what Nintendo would like to pick; and the examples I listed directly support King Boo. That said he's likely not going to be the next character because many characters share the same traits as him, but are a little more sensible as paid DLC.

Also you can't just ignore the polls you agree with while parroting that Geno is also one of the most popular requests for Smash Ultimate, a fact that is evident due to polls themselves. Most polls are shaped by a mixture of fan-demand as well as expectation, rather then just fan demand itself. That poll in particular was taken in 2018 pre-release when first party picks dominated due to them being much more likely to be picked. That's a reasonable why Bandana Dee beat out B-K and Springman was so popular. In the 2019 poll, B-K were first due to third parties dominating the discussion but BD still managed to place second. Sora placed third, Shantae 4th, Geno 5th, Steve 6th, Crash 7th, Rayman 8th, Rex 9th and Master Chief 10th.

Again, polls are a product of their time; and even a slight shift in a characters chances can drastically change their placement. For example, last year Reimu placed around 50; this year I wouldn't be surprised if she makes top 15 because her fanbase drastically increased. This all goes to show, that polls really aren't a good method of measuring demand, because so many characters are inconsistent. Fan Polls are really only good at general trends for Smash Ultimate, and I'm willing to be Nintendo doesn't care about Ultimate polls that much outside of their own official one. Lastly most of the Smash fanbase just does not care enough to vote in their favorite characters. Really only 5-10% of fans care enough to seek out polls to make their character more requested.

 

[Polarthief]

future potential,

That's part of #1, just a longer-term version of it.

general popularity/recognizability

That's literally #3.

investment in securing rights

What character rights are they going for if they don't relate to 1-3 in some way?
If you meant permanently buying the rights; has Nintendo ever done that? Man I'd kill for them to buy the rights to SMRPG, but it'll never happen, and Square would never let it happen.

 

[axel_]

I almost feel like this Trials of Mana Spirit Event is a really hard deal breaker for not just Geno, but a lot of other third parties. Most obvious example being the Kunio-kun event (Arc System Works)

If this Squenix event means Geno, then that would be a really good sign for Sol Badguy.