Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[Let Geno Smash]

I almost feel like this Trials of Mana Spirit Event is a really hard deal breaker for not just Geno, but a lot of other third parties. Most obvious example being the Kunio-kun event (Arc System Works)

If this Squenix event means Geno, then that would be a really good sign for Sol Badguy.

Obviously, is this mean something and the Next DLC is a SE Rep it helps Sol, Dante or even Rayman for the Altair and Rabbid Mii

 

[Firox]

While I absolutely do not think King Boo is getting in, I feel as though the categories you chose are hilariously in favor of Geno rather then being how an actual executive would think like. There are dozens of more factors then that involved in executives deciding which DLC is worth it comparitively to just the 3 examples you picked. In fact, those all likely just play a much, much smaller part then the things you are ignoring. Things like future potential, general popularity/recognizability, investment in securing rights, and much more also play a roll in what Nintendo would like to pick; and the examples I listed directly support King Boo. That said he's likely not going to be the next character because many characters share the same traits as him, but are a little more sensible as paid DLC.

LOL I love how you scoff at my categories only to reiterate them yourself with different wording. Future potential could be included in category 1 and general popularity/recog falls into 3. I'll admit that I didn't think to factor investment vs securing rights which you could throw into a fourth category but it's really not as complicated as you're making it sound. At the end of the day, they want to make money and you do that by either giving the people what they want or telling them what you want them to want. Period.

Also you can't just ignore the polls you agree with while parroting that Geno is also one of the most popular requests for Smash Ultimate, a fact that is evident due to polls themselves. Most polls are shaped by a mixture of fan-demand as well as expectation, rather then just fan demand itself. That poll in particular was taken in 2018 pre-release when first party picks dominated due to them being much more likely to be picked. That's a reasonable why Bandana Dee beat out B-K and Springman was so popular. In the 2019 poll, B-K were first due to third parties dominating the discussion but BD still managed to place second. Sora placed third, Shantae 4th, Geno 5th, Steve 6th, Crash 7th, Rayman 8th, Rex 9th and Master Chief 10th.

Firstly, I'm not ignoring polls I don't agree with. I'm pointing out that certain polls are obviously biased or outdated, which you actually reinforce with the end of your paragraph here. It doesn't change the fact the Springman was mostly only present due to his game still being relatively new and the fact that at the time Inkling has just been revealed so people were assuming that Nintendo was going after recently new franchises. I think too often people confuse "popular" with "probable" hence why Cloud was hardly ever seen on any polls prior to his addition. It wasn't that people didn't want him, but rather they didn't think to vote for what they considered to be such a long shot.

Again, polls are a product of their time; and even a slight shift in a characters chances can drastically change their placement. For example, last year Reimu placed around 50; this year I wouldn't be surprised if she makes top 15 because her fanbase drastically increased. This all goes to show, that polls really aren't a good method of measuring demand, because so many characters are inconsistent. Fan Polls are really only good at general trends for Smash Ultimate, and I'm willing to be Nintendo doesn't care about Ultimate polls that much outside of their own official one. Lastly most of the Smash fanbase just does not care enough to vote in their favorite characters. Really only 5-10% of fans care enough to seek out polls to make their character more requested.

Can't argue with you here. It's kind of funny how some characters are only popular DLC picks because we make them that way. If I made a super believable fake leak for, idk, say Mallow as an actual fighter, just the fact that I got people talking about him would create a huge spike in his fan base and awareness. If enough copy-cats and "insiders" got in on it, you could bet we'd have people claiming he was a "lock" pretty soon. That's probably why we're often so surprised when Sakurai/Nintendo throws us a curve ball. It's because they have their own "bubble" of influence in deciding these things.

That's part of #1, just a longer-term version of it.

That's literally #3.

EXACTLY! Glad someone else caught that too.

 

[TriggerX]

I think it's important for people to try and get inside Nintendo's head right now. If you were an exec for Nintendo and you wanted to sell DLC characters for a high profile game, what would your motives be?

1) Promote an upcoming game or franchise
2) Boost sales/awareness for the resurgence of an older/underselling title
3) Boost sales of the DLC itself by offering what the majority of the player base wants to buy

With 6 (techinically 5 now) slots of DLC left, which of these three would you choose? Answer: Something that preferrably knocks out at least two at a time. That said, here's my take (yes, just my own opinion) with regards to some of our most discussed potential DLC...

-Geno: Would count towards 2 and 3 with his inclusion undeniably counting towards long-standing fan service. He could potentially unviel SMRPG on the Switch Virtual Console or even a new remake/remaster of his original game to fulfill the marketing bonus of category 2.

Seems a little biased. Can’t say Geno satisfies 1,2 or 3.

1.)Assuming a new SMrpg game released, sure I could see it. And Geno would make a great promotional project for any future Smrpg content going forward.However, any sequel or remake seems unlikely.


2. promoting a virtual console game to an audience that is most likely already subscribed to Nintendos online service is a little pointless. Won’t bring in too much more revenue.


3. Saying the majority of the fan base wants Geno is a pretty big claim to make, and polls don’t really support it when you compare him to other candidates.

There’s fan demand for him, there is no denying that, but when he’s compared to other potentials he’s a bit behind. I liken him to a cult favorite a little underneath Banjo’s appeal. He does stand out as far as the Mario series is concerned, but that’s as far as it goes in my opinion. I like the character but personally believe his design needs to be reworked or improved before just placing him into smash.

 

[Firox]

Seems a little biased. Can’t say Geno satisfies 1,2 or 3.

1.)Assuming a new SMrpg game released, sure I could see it. And Geno would make a great promotional project for any future Smrpg content going forward.However, any sequel or remake seems unlikely.


2. promoting a virtual console game to an audience that is most likely already subscribed to Nintendos online service is a little pointless. Won’t bring in too much more revenue.


3. Saying the majority of the fan base wants Geno is a pretty big claim to make, and polls don’t really support it when you compare him to other candidates.

There’s fan demand for him, there is no denying that, but when he’s compared to other potentials he’s a bit behind. I liken him to a cult favorite a little underneath Banjo’s appeal. He does stand out as far as the Mario series is concerned, but that’s as far as it goes in my opinion. I like the character but personally believe his design needs to be reworked or improved before just placing him into smash.

Uhhh, who the heck said the MAJORITY of the fan base wants Geno? I only said he was long-standing fan service. As in, a significant number of fans have been trying to get him since Brawl. That wasn't to say he was the most popular pick out there by any stretch of the imagination, but he's gotten personal acknowledgement by Sakurai who actually said that a lot of people have been requesting him. This is fact, not just my opinion. As for cat 3 in general, by "what the majority of the fan base wants", it was obviously a relative statement since it's virtually impossible for anyone to know who the literal most wanted character is. I suppose a better choice of words would be "which character would draw the maximum amount of sales" though it's pretty much the same concept. High appeal/popularity = high sales

 

[Sigran101]

Seems a little biased. Can’t say Geno satisfies 1,2 or 3.

1.)Assuming a new SMrpg game released, sure I could see it. And Geno would make a great promotional project for any future Smrpg content going forward.However, any sequel or remake seems unlikely.


2. promoting a virtual console game to an audience that is most likely already subscribed to Nintendos online service is a little pointless. Won’t bring in too much more revenue.


3. Saying the majority of the fan base wants Geno is a pretty big claim to make, and polls don’t really support it when you compare him to other candidates.

There’s fan demand for him, there is no denying that, but when he’s compared to other potentials he’s a bit behind. I liken him to a cult favorite a little underneath Banjo’s appeal. He does stand out as far as the Mario series is concerned, but that’s as far as it goes in my opinion. I like the character but personally believe his design needs to be reworked or improved before just placing him into smash.

I was with you up until point 3. I think Geno is way more popular than you give him credit for. So much so that Sakurai even said himself that Geno is extremely popular. You can't say that about the other current front runners. And I'm not quite sure what you mean by reworkings his design. I mean obviously he needs a modern render like every smash character, but it sounds like you're saying his design is fundamentally flawed and needs to be changed, which makes no sense considering his design is a large part of how he became a fan favorite to begin with.

 

[Polarthief]

3. Saying the majority of the fan base wants Geno is a pretty big claim to make, and polls don’t really support it when you compare him to other candidates.

No one is claiming Geno is a favorite among the majority, but he's one of the long-standing fan-requests that hasn't been put in yet. He was given a costume in Sm4sh as a consolation prize and was even given a splash screen like a character reveal, unlike *ANY OTHER COSTUME*.

To say Geno doesn't satisfy point 1 and 2, I'll give you that, but #3 is where you're quite wrong. Geno will be similar to BK's reveal. It will be amazing. He along with Banjo, KKR and Ridley were among the 4 that have been requested for oh so long.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Geno's fanbase is impressive if you consider that he's a side character from from a 24 year old game. Geno is an outlier in the biggest of ways. To put this in perspective, the Ice Climbers were 17 when they joined Smash and Pit was about 20. Demand for either character wasn't huge but it was enough. On paper, there's even less incentive for people to want Geno back because he's not the star character (well, literally he is but...) but this fanbase has been visible for a decade and a half despite that. "Unga bunga, it's just meme energy." Memes only have longevity if people proactively keep them alive which is exactly the point; enough people have been keeping Geno "alive" for him to be relevant in the speculation cycle of the last three Smash games.

 

[TriggerX]

I was with you up until point 3. I think Geno is way more popular than you give him credit for. So much so that Sakurai even said himself that Geno is extremely popular. You can't say that about the other current front runners. And I'm not quite sure what you mean by reworkings his design. I mean obviously he needs a modern render like every smash character, but it sounds like you're saying his design is fundamentally flawed and needs to be changed, which makes no sense considering his design is a large part of how he became a fan favorite to begin with.

He has a large following for sure, and I’m not denying he has fans. In that interview sakurai doesn’t really compare Genos’s popularity with any other character. Lol even that character tingle has fans. My point is, is he really as popular as many of these other third party characters?

Nah nothing major in terms of redesign. I think the the smashified interpretation of him is ideal. Add details like stitching, bolts, etc that really show that he was a toy. His proportions need to change as well, the original render was very stout. ( In all fairness though, so was Mario’s render).

I personally think Geno will make the cut on the roster, but mainly for other reasons.

 

[Polarthief]

from a 24 year old game.

Excuse you, Twenty-FIVE in Japan, the same in America come next month.

My point is, is he really as popular as many of these other third party characters?

That's not the point though. Of course Sephiroth and Sora has fans, they're from some of the biggest bandwagoned games ever that people blow out of proportion. Geno's been in one, singular, game (and a teensy-tiny cameo in another) that didn't even do all that hot (due to obvious reasons like being released so close to the N64 coming out and not even going to PAL regions til the Wii VC). He and SMRPG also have one of the most dedicated fanbases compared to other, bigger, characters that generally just have scattered fans here and there. Honestly, I would put him on Banjo-Kazooie tier in terms of a very highly-requested character, maybe half a step down from that. I'm telling you, the fan-reaction will be quite similar to what it was for BK, maybe just an octave lower on the screaming.

No one but you was saying "a majority" or that he's "more popular" than these other characters. He's simply a very well-wanted character by many. To deny his popularity is to deny a fact.

 

[TriggerX]

Excuse you, Twenty-FIVE in Japan, the same in America come next month.



That's not the point though. Of course Sephiroth and Sora has fans, they're from some of the biggest bandwagoned games ever that people blow out of proportion. Geno's been in one, singular, game (and a teensy-tiny cameo in another) that didn't even do all that hot (due to obvious reasons like being released so close to the N64 coming out and not even going to PAL regions til the Wii VC). He and SMRPG also have one of the most dedicated fanbases compared to other, bigger, characters that generally just have scattered fans here and there. Honestly, I would put him on Banjo-Kazooie tier in terms of a very highly-requested character, maybe half a step down from that. I'm telling you, the fan-reaction will be quite similar to what it was for BK, maybe just an octave lower on the screaming.

No one but you was saying "a majority" or that he's "more popular" than these other characters. He's simply a very well-wanted character by many. To deny his popularity is to deny a fact.

Lol Nah that was definitely my fault on that one. Honestly misread it, maybe I was looking at a different post.
Would you say he has a fan base comparable to the same size as Banjo?

 

[Fatmanonice]

Let me describe Geno's popularity in another way: imagine if people wanted Red XIII in Smash Bros. Imagine if people pushed for him in Smash for a decade and a half. I think a lot of people have a hard time wrapping their head around what an anomaly Geno is.

 

[Polarthief]

Would you say he has a fan base comparable to the same size as Banjo?

Yes, maybe a small step lower. I don't think BK's fanbase was quite as organized and dedicated as Geno's, but like other more popular games (again to reuse good examples, Sephiroth and Sora), they were more numerous and scattered. BK's also much more well-known, being on two of their own games on the N64, and Banjo was in Diddy Kong Racing prior to that. They also got a third (albeit very mediocre) game on the X360 and also had their games on Rare Replay. They had a much easier time racking up their following compared to Geno who literally had a very-late SNES title and just re-releases of that game on VC/SNES Classic (and I don't even count Superstar Saga since IIRC they didn't even use his name; hardly enough to gain fans from that).

Let me describe Geno's popularity in another way: imagine if people wanted Red XIII in Smash Bros. Imagine if people pushed for him in Smash for a decade and a half. I think a lot of people have a hard time wrapping their head around what an anomaly Geno is.

Definitely this. Also consider that Sakurai himself realizes the fanbase that Geno has, to the point where he gave us a Sm4sh costume (which is still missing FTR) and even said himself that Geno fits in Smash very well. To my knowledge, Sakurai rarely (if ever prior?) talks about characters before they're officially put in the game. Geno truly is an anomaly, and that's putting it lightly.

 

[Droodle]

That's part of #1, just a longer-term version of it.



That's literally #3.



What character rights are they going for if they don't relate to 1-3 in some way?
If you meant permanently buying the rights; has Nintendo ever done that? Man I'd kill for them to buy the rights to SMRPG, but it'll never happen, and Square would never let it happen.

By general popularity I mean popularity within the general audience outside of Smash. Geno is popular within the Smash fanbase, but he isn't a generally popular character outside of that. Firox stated that Geno fulfills #3 and he does, but #3 isn't the same as general popularity. Popularity from out important distinction that divides the line between characters like Joker (who was generally popular and didn't need a massive push from his fans in order to get in) and Geno (who isn't generally popular and so he has to get a push helping him out). Obviously general popularity doesn't always translate to Smash popularity either for example Steve has a ton of general popularity, but as can be seen back around E3 most of the fan base online/active forum were against Steve getting in. Same applied to Sans, who many people thought of as a meme pick until the Mii costume.

There was also a difference I meant to shed upon in regards to future potential vs promoting an upcoming game/franchise. I don't really think they are the same personally. It may sound weird, but I think of future potential as an investment that Nintendo makes on new/fresh franchises that they may have plans for in the future. So for example, I think of an ARMS pick as a character that fits in the future potential group (assuming that it does get sequels); ARMS needs it because the interest in the game faded like a month after, despite it having some good launch sales.

Meanwhile I think of a character like Byleth as exclusively promoting an upcoming game or franchise (in this case I guess DLC?). Putting another FE character in Smash isn't really a investing in the future potential of the series, because the series itself has reached the height of it's popularity for now. Byleth was likely put in to sell a couple dozen thousand more copies of FE:TH, reignite interest on the DLC, and earning a couple million more through FEH. I doubt that the next FE will be even more successful then FE:TH, and Nintendo was already fully invested in FE before TH/Byleth in Smash came out.

Another hypothetical example would be something like Ring Fit Adventurer in Smash vs Waluigi. Ring Fit Adventure is still a fairly fresh and new IP, so it getting a rep would be letting us know that yes, Nintendo is interested in more Ring Fit Adventurer. Meanwhile Waluigi would be used to promote/celebrate Mario, but he wouldn't really be a investment for the future of Mario (unless they specifically want Waluigi games), because lets be honest we don't need a Smash rep to let us know that more Mario games/spin-offs with Waluigi are coming.

 

[Sigran101]

Ya'll can say what you want about King Boo's chances since that's all just opinions, but can we stop pretending we know Sakurai's criteria? Ya'll were blindsided by 5 out of the 7 dlc characters so far. None of you would have listened to me if I'd suggested he might add Piranha Plant, Terry, or ARMS, and none of you listened to me when I said he might add Joker or Byleth. You list these criteria that Sakurai uses for the dlc, but this fan made criteria list has changed twice in the last 4 months. Ya'll said we weren't getting 1st parties or shills until Byleth, and this "promoting under performing games" criteria didn't exist until last month when we found out about ARMS. Just face it, ya'll have no clue who Sakurai is going to add and why. This fanbase has failed to predict every last dlc character that didn't get leaked, so forgive me if I don't put much weight into your fanmade criteria.

 

[Polarthief]

By general popularity I mean popularity within the general audience outside of Smash. Geno is popular within the Smash fanbase, but he isn't a generally popular character outside of that.

Do character reveals generally bring more people into Smash though? I'd imagine a few *might* bring some people in, but I don't see people going "oh they added my waifu, I'm totally gonna play this game now!". Hell I generally only see that kind of behavior from furries whenever they add anthropomorphic animal characters into a game (like I've literally seen with people saying they're gonna try XCOM 2 purely for the supposed "snake waifus" they're adding?), and that's usually just because they thirsty. At this point, if someone has a Switch and *still* don't have Smash, and money isn't the reason, they're never getting Smash.

There was also a difference I meant to shed upon in regards to future potential vs promoting an upcoming game/franchise. I don't really think they are the same personally. It may sound weird, but I think of future potential as an investment that Nintendo makes on new/fresh franchises that they may have plans for in the future. So for example, I think of an ARMS pick as a character that fits in the future potential group (assuming that it does get sequels); ARMS needs it because the interest in the game faded like a month after, despite it having some good launch sales.

But ARMS is still an existing franchise, so assuming they want to push ARMS, that still goes hand in hand with #1 if they're making an ARMS 2, or #2 regarding ARMS 1 if not.

Another hypothetical example would be something like Ring Fit Adventurer in Smash vs Waluigi. Ring Fit Adventure is still a fairly fresh and new IP, so it getting a rep would be letting us know that yes, Nintendo is interested in more Ring Fit Adventurer. Meanwhile Waluigi would be used to promote/celebrate Mario, but he wouldn't really be a investment for the future of Mario (unless they specifically want Waluigi games), because lets be honest we don't need a Smash rep to let us know that more Mario games/spin-offs with Waluigi are coming.

Waluigi would be straight up fanservice, unless they're actually making a Wah game. He's Banjo-Kazooie, plain and simple, as would Geno (though Geno can also low-key advertise for NSO if SMRPG gets on it, and the upcoming Paper Mario by reminding people SMRPG was the spiritual predecessor to Paper Mario). RFA also getting in now would be super duper weird, considering the spirit event and also, just why. As base, sure, fine but as paid DLC? That'd be a worse pick than Byleth.

Ya'll can say what you want about King Boo's chances since that's all just opinions, but can we stop pretending we know Sakurai's criteria? Ya'll were blindsided by 5 out of the 7 dlc characters so far. None of you would have listened to me if I'd suggested he might add Piranha Plant, Terry, or ARMS, and none of you listened to me when I said he might add Joker or Byleth. You list these criteria that Sakurai uses for the dlc, but this fan made criteria list has changed twice in the last 4 months. Ya'll said we weren't getting 1st parties or shills until Byleth, and this "promoting under performing games" criteria didn't exist until last month when we found out about ARMS. Just face it, ya'll have no clue who Sakurai is going to add and why. This fanbase has failed to predict every last dlc character that didn't get leaked, so forgive me if I don't put much weight into your fanmade criteria.

Literally all of the DLC (except Plant who was a bonus to begin with anyway) fit at least one of the criteria though. DLC 1-3 were all popular and requested (Hero also to promote DQ11). Terry was to an extent. Byleth was to shill, obviously. DLC 6 is a bit of pushing ARMS again + to answer "where ARMS?" that some people were asking. Hell let's go back to Sm4sh: Ryu was a bit of an ad but Street Fighter also has a long-standing history that was definitely in part thanks to the SNES. Bayo was picked from the poll (popularity). Cloud I don't even need to mention. Corrin was obvious shill. The only times DLC (specifically DLC, not base game which is absolutely anything goes) hasn't been any of that criteria is when the character was a bonus (Plant) or a returning veteran (Roy/Lucas/Mewtwo). I also do realize that this is a fanrule, but why else would DLC characters be chosen if not out of fan demand or to promote something? Crazy example, but take any unrecognizable, unlikeable, character from a dead game. No one knows this character exists, no one asked for this character, and the series isn't making a comeback. Why would they be added in?

Also FTR: I'm not saying King Boo doesn't fit criteria. He would promote LM3/the DLC, and while not nearly as popular as other picks, he does seem to have some people rooting for him. The only thing I'm trying to point out right now is that the DLC has been "making sense" when you think about it. Terry is arguably the closest to "doesn't make sense", but even then, he still has his fans. All the DLC so far has either been asked for, promotes something, or both.

PS: I never said we weren't getting first parties, but I did find it weird they dropped 4 third-party then Byleth.

 

[Icewolff92]

So apparently, now with Fatmans claim on the Hollow Knight costume and the supposed Trials of Mana spirits is confirmed, Smashfaqs is acting like that supposed League of Legends leak is real.

 

[Isaac: Venus Adept]

So apparently, now with Fatmans claim on the Hollow Knight costume and the supposed Trials of Mana spirits is confirmed, Smashfaqs is acting like that supposed League of Legends leak is real.

Hollow Knight costume is an easy prediction to make simply for it being a beloved recent indie game just like Sans and Cuphead who got Mii Costumes too and Trials of Mana was coming out this week anyway so saying that it was getting a spirit event doesn't really do much in terms of saying it is legit

 

[Sigran101]

Do character reveals generally bring more people into Smash though? I'd imagine a few *might* bring some people in, but I don't see people going "oh they added my waifu, I'm totally gonna play this game now!". Hell I generally only see that kind of behavior from furries whenever they add anthropomorphic animal characters into a game (like I've literally seen with people saying they're gonna try XCOM 2 purely for the supposed "snake waifus" they're adding?), and that's usually just because they thirsty. At this point, if someone has a Switch and *still* don't have Smash, and money isn't the reason, they're never getting Smash.



But ARMS is still an existing franchise, so assuming they want to push ARMS, that still goes hand in hand with #1 if they're making an ARMS 2, or #2 regarding ARMS 1 if not.



Waluigi would be straight up fanservice, unless they're actually making a Wah game. He's Banjo-Kazooie, plain and simple, as would Geno (though Geno can also low-key advertise for NSO if SMRPG gets on it, and the upcoming Paper Mario by reminding people SMRPG was the spiritual predecessor to Paper Mario). RFA also getting in now would be super duper weird, considering the spirit event and also, just why. As base, sure, fine but as paid DLC? That'd be a worse pick than Byleth.



Literally all of the DLC (except Plant who was a bonus to begin with anyway) fit at least one of the criteria though. DLC 1-3 were all popular and requested (Hero also to promote DQ11). Terry was to an extent. Byleth was to shill, obviously. DLC 6 is a bit of pushing ARMS again + to answer "where ARMS?" that some people were asking. Hell let's go back to Sm4sh: Ryu was a bit of an ad but Street Fighter also has a long-standing history that was definitely in part thanks to the SNES. Bayo was picked from the poll (popularity). Cloud I don't even need to mention. Corrin was obvious shill. The only times DLC (specifically DLC, not base game which is absolutely anything goes) hasn't been any of that criteria is when the character was a bonus (Plant) or a returning veteran (Roy/Lucas/Mewtwo). I also do realize that this is a fanrule, but why else would DLC characters be chosen if not out of fan demand or to promote something? Crazy example, but take any unrecognizable, unlikeable, character from a dead game. No one knows this character exists, no one asked for this character, and the series isn't making a comeback. Why would they be added in?

Also FTR: I'm not saying King Boo doesn't fit criteria. He would promote LM3/the DLC, and while not nearly as popular as other picks, he does seem to have some people rooting for him. The only thing I'm trying to point out right now is that the DLC has been "making sense" when you think about it. Terry is arguably the closest to "doesn't make sense", but even then, he still has his fans. All the DLC so far has either been asked for, promotes something, or both.

PS: I never said we weren't getting first parties, but I did find it weird they dropped 4 third-party then Byleth.

First off, just because plant was a bonus doesn't mean it doesn't count. And I would absolutely argue that Joker fits none of these criteria. Promoting an upcoming or recent game? His main game and the improved version are PS4 exclusives. Why would they choose, out of all the third parties on Switch, to add a character to smash to promote a spin off persona game? This was obviously not a promotional character. And as one of the 4 people who frequented the Joker thread before the announcement, I can absolutely tell you he was not a fan demand character. He was generally well received because he's a generally appealing character, but Persona is still relatively niche, even with P5's boost in popularity. If you told me to make an objective list of the top 50 gaming all stars, Joker wouldn't even make the list at all. That's coming from someone who's favorite game is Persona 5 by a large margin. Most people decided Sakurai bias was likely a big part of that. So does that count as a criteria? Yet Sakurai says Nintendo chose the characters, so what could their criteria for it be? Same with Terry. The fighting game community may have laughed at us for it, but Terry was met with a resounding "literally who" from much of the smash fanbase. As far as promoting upcoming games, why would Nintendo want to promote double A games in smash when the switch has so many megaton third parties? And if it was fan demand then why not Heihachi or someone more well known like that? Sakurai bias could be a factor once again. Some also argue that Sakurai couldn't make Heihachi work in smash 4 because it was too difficult to translate Tekken to 2D. So is working on a technical level now a criteria we have to worry about? And how do we decide who would work and who wouldn't? There are tons of possible reasons Sakurai could add a character. He could just like their game. It could be that history with Nintendo gets one character in, and another character is added as a nod to a developer or person, like the rumored Iwata tribute. A character could be added to cement or improve a relationship with a third party company or to thank one for supporting the switch or smash. To simplify it as 3 categories and say each prospective character must fit one of them to be considered is just shy of fan rule territory. We don't know why Sakurai added the characters he did or what he will add in the future. All we know is that he constantly surprises us and we usually can't predict him.

 

[Lord Woomy]

So apparently, now with Fatmans claim on the Hollow Knight costume and the supposed Trials of Mana spirits is confirmed, Smashfaqs is acting like that supposed League of Legends leak is real.

Throw this into the bucket of "Obviously fake leaks that got a thing or two sorta right that everyone will believe for about a month."

 

[Icewolff92]

Hollow Knight costume is an easy prediction to make simply for it being a beloved recent indie game just like Sans and Cuphead who got Mii Costumes too and Trials of Mana was coming out this week anyway so saying that it was getting a spirit event doesn't really do much in terms of saying it is legit

I agree... but tell that to SmashFaqs. Granted, they are literally "what is the hottest leak today" type mindset...

 

[Megadoomer]

I agree... but tell that to SmashFaqs. Granted, they are literally "what is the hottest leak today" type mindset...

You can't really generalize an entire message board - I'm sure there are tons of people who are skeptical about it. It's like saying that everyone on SmashBoards believed the Grinch "leak".

 

[Sigran101]

So apparently, now with Fatmans claim on the Hollow Knight costume and the supposed Trials of Mana spirits is confirmed, Smashfaqs is acting like that supposed League of Legends leak is real.

Holy ****! Someone predicted a Mii costume that was already leaked and hasn't even been confirmed yet? And they called spirits being added from a big new switch release? I guess we're just waiting for the reveal.

Hey guys I have info! Gooigi is a Mii costume and we'll get XBDE spirits the week of May 29th. Also Pajama Sam is fighter #7! Let's ask Fatman what he thinks! I surely don't know if he's heard of any of the same stuff but if he backs me up on anything it's basically confirmed!

Edit: changed for a more accurate comparison

 

[Enigma735]

I'm gonna go on a bit of a tangent here, but I seriously need to let this out. I can't stand when people say Square Enix is stingy and is such a hard company to work with, and we should all blame Square Enix for the lack of Final Fantasy And Dragon Quest content. People use this against us Genbros because Geno is owned by Square Enix and people always use that argument.

The only reason Final Fantasy And Dragon Quest have a lack of content is because Final Fantasy's artist, as well as the composer, is VERY hard to work with which was why we didn't get much Final Fantasy Spirits, Cloud's FS being his render from Ultimate, and only having two tracks from Final Fantasy. In Dragon Quest's case, the artist is a bit easier to work with then the FF artist, which is why we had quite a few DQ Spirits, and why the DQ Heroes FS are their original renders. However, the Dragon Quest composer is hard to work with, which explains why we only got two DQ tracks per each DQ game that is represented with the Heroes.

The point I am trying to make is that people act like Square Enix is this impossible company to work with, when that is not at all the case. Square Enix has made MARIO SPIN-OFF games in the past, so they really seem to be on great terms with Nintendo, and today's Spirit Event announcement further proves my point that Square Enix is not a hard company to work with, as we are getting Trial Of Mana Spirits added. I just had to rant about that because its not Square Enix that is hard to work with, its everyone else that is. I would not be surprised at all if Square decides to add yet another rep in to Fighters Pass Volume 2, hopefully Geno obviously.

 

[Let Geno Smash]

Holy ****! Someone predicted a Mii costume that was already leaked and hasn't even been confirmed yet? And they called spirits being added from a big new switch release? I guess we're just waiting for the reveal.

Hey guys I have info! Gooigi is a Mii costume and we'll get spirits for Paper Mario when it comes out. Also Pajama Sam is fighter #7! Let's ask Fatman what he thinks! If he backs me up on anything it's basically confirmed!

If you talk in that way, the LOL leak lloks as a Lucky Guess
PD: PAJAMA SAM FOR SMASH

I'm gonna go on a bit of a tangent here, but I seriously need to let this out. I can't stand when people say Square Enix is stingy and is such a hard company to work with, and we should all blame Square Enix for the lack of Final Fantasy And Dragon Quest content. People use this against us Genbros because Geno is owned by Square Enix and people always use that argument.

The only reason Final Fantasy And Dragon Quest have a lack of content is because Final Fantasy's artist, as well as the composer, is VERY hard to work with which was why we didn't get much Final Fantasy Spirits, Cloud's FS being his render from Ultimate, and only having two tracks from Final Fantasy. In Dragon Quest's case, the artist is a bit easier to work with then the FF artist, which is why we had quite a few DQ Spirits, and why the DQ Heroes FS are their original renders. However, the Dragon Quest composer is hard to work with, which explains why we only got two DQ tracks per each DQ game that is represented with the Heroes.

The point I am trying to make is that people act like Square Enix is this impossible company to work with, when that is not at all the case. Square Enix has made MARIO SPIN-OFF games in the past, so they really seem to be on great terms with Nintendo, and today's Spirit Event announcement further proves my point that Square Enix is not a hard company to work with, as we are getting Trial Of Mana Spirits added. I just had to rant about that because its not Square Enix that is hard to work with, its everyone else that is. I would not be surprised at all if Square decides to add yet another rep in to Fighters Pass Volume 2, hopefully Geno obviously.

Yeah, but Square didn't let nintendo use overture and all the DQ songs are made in Midi

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Trial of Mana Spirits were leaked literally in January.

Hollow Knight costume is one thing. Same with the music. Not that hard to predict.

The Spirits were not remotely easy to predict. Not with SE's apparent stinginess that made the Spirits a massive head turner as is. The fact it's not paid DLC is a huge deal. There's no need for hindsight bias. No, they weren't some easy to predict thing. The rest of the leak can easily be fake, though. People easy latch onto leak information, and then post it with fake information added to begin with. That's how they seem credible. Only 1/3 of it is pretty much true(The Spirits at best). The rest, eh, we gotta wait and see. It may be real, 2/3 of it may be not. Also, guessing a song with a costume is not that odd to even list. If anything, that makes sense if you're either predicting or leaking a premium costume. The real thing that makes the HK costume look more easy to predict is thinking there's some pattern with the premium costumes with the idea "they'll all be Indie no matter what". There's literally two costumes. That in itself is what makes me think it's likely not real.

I'm kind of 50/50 on the League of Legends character. Riot Games announced multiple unannounced projects, so the idea a Switch game is coming, which can be LoL related, means a character is an easy promotional rep and would benefit Nintendo specifically. This would be a good reason why they'd pick the character as is. But with no announcements, harder to say.

 

[Enigma735]

If you talk in that way, the LOL leak lloks as a Lucky Guess
PD: PAJAMA SAM FOR SMASH

Yeah, but Square didn't let nintendo use overture and all the DQ songs are made in Midi

This is all just speculation, but I have heard that the DQ composer was very hard to work with, which was what resulted in that. Idk but I'm pretty sure Square is easy to work with.

 

[CannonStreak]

This is all just speculation, but I have heard that the DQ composer was very hard to work with, which was what resulted in that. Idk but I'm pretty sure Square is easy to work with.

So what is this leak we are talking about, anyway?

EDIT: Never mind.

 

[axel_]

I'm kind of 50/50 on the League of Legends character. Riot Games announced multiple unannounced projects, so the idea a Switch game is coming, which can be LoL related, means a character is an easy promotional rep and would benefit Nintendo specifically. This would be a good reason why they'd pick the character as is. But with no announcements, harder to say.

My issue with the idea of a LOL character is that you can't really pick one.
Sure, as a video game hall of fame that Smash is apparently set up to be, League absolutely has its place there, but it has so many poster children that it's really hard to choose easily. You're stuck with this grab bag of the actual significant characters that aren't really popular (Ryze, Ashe, Garen) and the fan favorites that aren't really significant and may not be the best way to represent League (Ahri, Poppy, Ekko), and they rarely ever pick antagonists first so that eliminates a lot of popular characters (Darius, Jinx)
If I had to choose, it would probably be between Ahri, Ryze or Ezreal. And those characters are just from memory and looking them up in the last minute because I haven't really played League.

Spoiler: dumb take

If we're talking about MOBAs in Smash, then when are they gonna add Bellona or Thor from Smite?

 

[SpiritOfRuin]

Ya'll can say what you want about King Boo's chances since that's all just opinions, but can we stop pretending we know Sakurai's criteria? Ya'll were blindsided by 5 out of the 7 dlc characters so far. None of you would have listened to me if I'd suggested he might add Piranha Plant, Terry, or ARMS, and none of you listened to me when I said he might add Joker or Byleth. You list these criteria that Sakurai uses for the dlc, but this fan made criteria list has changed twice in the last 4 months. Ya'll said we weren't getting 1st parties or shills until Byleth, and this "promoting under performing games" criteria didn't exist until last month when we found out about ARMS. Just face it, ya'll have no clue who Sakurai is going to add and why. This fanbase has failed to predict every last dlc character that didn't get leaked, so forgive me if I don't put much weight into your fanmade criteria.

Honestly, one could easily make a much more convincing argument for King Boo than they could for a lot of other characters. I'm gonna have to agree that we can sit around spitballing what makes sense all we want, but at the end of the day we are likely still going to get blindsided whether it's in a good or bad way. You're absolutely right about Byleth too like wow did we set ourselves up for disappointment by refusing to believe Nintendo would be that careless and obliviously stupid. I'm still baffled that Rayman is not in the game; I think this is actually the most shocking thing to me out of everything else. A world where we got a Persona rep before so many others is quite baffling. It's stuff like this that keeps me saying stuff like "well this makes sense and this other thing doesn't seem likely in my opinion, but...I have no freaking idea what is happening or why so I guess I will just have to wait and see". After all these characters, the criteria for choosing them is so diverse and in some instances obscure that it's still just shots in the dark trying to guess how they've picked who's next. Here's to hoping Geno fits into whatever wacky criteria they chose at some point during the process.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

My issue with the idea of a LOL character is that you can't really pick one.
Sure, as a video game hall of fame that Smash is apparently set up to be, League absolutely has its place there, but it has so many poster children that it's really hard to choose easily. You're stuck with this grab bag of the actual significant characters that aren't really popular (Ryze, Ashe, Garen) and the fan favorites that aren't really significant and may not be the best way to represent League (Ahri, Poppy, Ekko), and they rarely ever pick antagonists first so that eliminates a lot of popular characters (Darius, Jinx)
If I had to choose, it would probably be between Ahri, Ryze or Ezreal. And those characters are just from memory and looking them up in the last minute because I haven't really played League.

Spoiler: dumb take

If we're talking about MOBAs in Smash, then when are they gonna add Bellona or Thor from Smite?

The weird thing is that this might be one of the few cases where Nintendo, wanting to promote the game if it's coming to the Switch, might give Sakurai the choice. Albeit, maybe that happened with ARMS too. Though I don't think it's the case either way and they have someone in mind.

Either way, Ahri is the only one I really much know, so I guess I'd go with her.

 

[Icewolff92]

You can't really generalize an entire message board - I'm sure there are tons of people who are skeptical about it. It's like saying that everyone on SmashBoards believed the Grinch "leak".

Fair enough.

The Spirits were not remotely easy to predict. Not with SE's apparent stinginess that made the Spirits a massive head turner as is. The fact it's not paid DLC is a huge deal. There's no need for hindsight bias. No, they weren't some easy to predict thing. The rest of the leak can easily be fake, though. People easy latch onto leak information, and then post it with fake information added to begin with. That's how they seem credible. Only 1/3 of it is pretty much true(The Spirits at best). The rest, eh, we gotta wait and see. It may be real, 2/3 of it may be not. Also, guessing a song with a costume is not that odd to even list. If anything, that makes sense if you're either predicting or leaking a premium costume. The real thing that makes the HK costume look more easy to predict is thinking there's some pattern with the premium costumes with the idea "they'll all be Indie no matter what". There's literally two costumes. That in itself is what makes me think it's likely not real.

I disagree that the spirit was not such an easy prediction. Spirits is an easy and cheap promotional tool, and its Nintendo has used spirits as marketing more than once.. So it's not really that hard to predict even if it¨s Square Enix we are talking about. They can cover those costs through sales of the games. Due to every release that does not have gotten anything, the "prediction" was not bulletproof, but it was easy to predict non the less.

 

[CannonStreak]

Fair enough.


I disagree that the spirit was not such an easy prediction. Spirits is an easy and cheap promotional tool, and its Nintendo has used spirits as marketing more than once.. So it's not really that hard to predict even if it¨s Square Enix we are talking about. They can cover those costs through sales of the games. Due to every release that does not have gotten anything, the "prediction" was not bulletproof, but it was easy to predict non the less.

Agreed. Plus, Trials of Mana was announced at E3 of last year, and if it were truly impossible, no data would be found of any kind about the game due to security that is impossible because, well, nothing would get leaked or told to some leaker. Security like that does not exist, and there is always a chance that something known about the game will lead to something about the game's inclusion in something else, even if it was just a lucky guess, you know what I mean?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Fair enough.


I disagree that the spirit was not such an easy prediction. Spirits is an easy and cheap promotional tool, and its Nintendo has used spirits as marketing more than once.. So it's not really that hard to predict even if it¨s Square Enix we are talking about. They can cover those costs through sales of the games. Due to every release that does not have gotten anything, the "prediction" was not bulletproof, but it was easy to predict non the less.

It's pretty hard to predict since SE doesn't do "free DLC" at all.

It's not easy to predict from 4chan, who doesn't know how SE works when it comes to stinginess.

It's pretty hard to predict when the only reason to believe that is pure hindsight.

Unless there's some real examples of them doing free DLC in general, and specifically for stuff that isn't just FF, their biggest franchise ever, I'm not going to be convinced by this. Let's be clear that I don't buy these promotional stuff as obvious either. That's obvious to say right after it was announced. Nobody was saying it beyond this leak beforehand. Not before or after. Not till the thing came out. So I'm going to stick with what I said. Hard hindsight bias is the only reason to believe it was predictable.

 

[Malo Mart]

Yeah, I'm not buying that leak for a pentasecond. It just seems like the typical case of the "horse**** 4chan leak whose corpse got dug up because it got one small thing right" to me. Most of us probably didn't predict a Trial of Mana Spirit event, sure, but good guesses do exist. Shocker right? It's not even that farfetched when you remember it's happening the same week as the game's release.

Hollow Knight "premium" costume is also a safe guess after Sans and Cuphead, and LoL is so outlandish, even compared to Joker or Terry, that it kills the leak all by itself in my opinion. But hey, that won't stop some folks from ****riding this leak for the next few weeks, so what can ya do? ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯

 

[CannonStreak]

It's pretty hard to predict since SE doesn't do "free DLC" at all.

It's not easy to predict from 4chan, who doesn't know how SE works when it comes to stinginess.

It's pretty hard to predict when the only reason to believe that is pure hindsight.

Unless there's some real examples of them doing free DLC in general, and specifically for stuff that isn't just FF, their biggest franchise ever, I'm not going to be convinced by this. Let's be clear that I don't buy these promotional stuff as obvious either. That's obvious to say right after it was announced. Nobody was saying it beyond this leak beforehand. Not before or after. Not till the thing came out. So I'm going to stick with what I said. Hard hindsight bias is the only reason to believe it was predictable.

First, what you said does not make anything impossible, unless you think what they said was real before the Trials of Mana thing got revealed. As for the free DLC, Nintendo is doing the thing, not SE directly, and I believe Nintendo had SE's consent. Remember that this is a collaboration between Nintendo and SE, if anything.

Plus, calling this impossible is a bit of a stretch. First, the game was known for some time, which you seem to disregard and throw out the window for some reason. Secondly, if it were impossible, nothing would have been leaked in regards to the game and some things from it being in Smash Bros. Ultimate. Security would have to be so tight that things about Trials of Mana would never get out from SE, let along some spirits of it in Ultimate. But guess what? Almost everything human based is not impossible, especially when compared to physical laws not allowing some things to happen and miracles, which are more so impossible. People will get word of things somehow, SE can't keep everything from falling to the public's hands, and the game being announced since E3 has made enough time to allow for a prediction, or lucky guess, for things like Trials of Mana spirits in Ultimate to happen. Plus, to predict such things, you need to know the game exists. How is that just hindsight when we knew of Trials of Mana before now? Anything is possible. To me, saying this was an impossible prediction is not only a stretch, but the same as saying the world will not end tomorrow when evidence to the contrary exists.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

First, what you said does not make anything impossible, unless you think what they said was real before the Trials of Mana thing got revealed. As for the free DLC, Nintendo is doing the thing, not SE directly, and I believe Nintendo had SE's consent. Remember that this is a collaboration between Nintendo and SE, if anything.

You mean that Nintendo got hard permission from SE? Cause SE was paid for it. This wasn't free either way.

Plus, calling this impossible is a bit of a stretch. First, the game was known for some time, which you seem to disregard and throw out the window for some reason. Secondly, if it were impossible, nothing would have been leaked in regards to the game and some things from it being in Smash Bros. Ultimate. Security would have to be so tight that things about Trials of Mana would never get out from SE, let along some spirits of it in Ultimate. But guess what? Almost everything human based is not impossible, especially when compared to physical laws not allowing some things to happen and miracles, which are more so impossible. People will get word of things somehow, SE can't keep everything from falling to the public's hands, and the game being announced since E3 has made enough time to allow for a prediction, or lucky guess, for things like Trials of Mana spirits in Ultimate to happen. Plus, to predict such things, you need to know the game exists. How is that just hindsight when we knew of Trials of Mana before now? Anything is possible. To me, saying this was an impossible prediction is not only a stretch, but the same as saying the world will not end tomorrow when evidence to the contrary exists.

If this was posted somewhere else, sure. But 4chan isn't some place full of smartness. They don't know events easily. It's a place full of constant trolling and flaming. Them actually getting something like that right? Laughable. No, they won't. That doesn't happen. They either know something like that or they don't even bother. That's what it's like there.

So in other words... yes, it was leaked? Okay. Sorry, your message is confusing me. What I'm getting is you think it's possible to predict(I hard don't) but also think it was leaked regardless?

Well, either way, I'm done with the conversation. As I said in the other thread, there's zero evidence to convince me it was remotely predictable, so there's no need to continue on. I don't think the rest is unpredictable, though. Yet another Indie Premium Costume is not that hard to think on, due to a pattern assumption, and Riot Games having upcoming but unannounced stuff makes a LoL character plausible enough. Obviously if a LoL Switch game already existed, then it's pretty clear at best they had information about the spirits for sure, and the rest could easily be faked. Now if a LoL Switch game gets announced soon, that'd help the leak instead. But if one doesn't, it's toast too. Having 1/3 of information isn't enough to matter, heh.

 

[Icewolff92]

It's pretty hard to predict since SE doesn't do "free DLC" at all.

Sure, it's out of the ordinary, but its still a marketing tool and both Square and Nintendo knows that. If they did not see it like that, then why are they doing spirit boards for majority of their games when the game is close to release?That¨s what I¨m trying to say. Had these come out of nowhere, or even bigger, FF7R spirits come out of nowhere and the leaker was right, then that would have been a different story.

 

[CannonStreak]

You mean that Nintendo got hard permission from SE? Cause SE was paid for it. This wasn't free either way.


If this was posted somewhere else, sure. But 4chan isn't some place full of smartness. They don't know events easily. It's a place full of constant trolling and flaming. Them actually getting something like that right? Laughable. No, they won't. That doesn't happen. They either know something like that or they don't even bother. That's what it's like there.

So in other words... yes, it was leaked? Okay. Sorry, your message is confusing me. What I'm getting is you think it's possible to predict(I hard don't) but also think it was leaked regardless?

Well, either way, I'm done with the conversation. As I said in the other thread, there's zero evidence to convince me it was remotely predictable, so there's no need to continue on. I don't think the rest is unpredictable, though. Yet another Indie Premium Costume is not that hard to think on, due to a pattern assumption, and Riot Games having upcoming but unannounced stuff makes a LoL character plausible enough. Obviously if a LoL Switch game already existed, then it's pretty clear at best they had information about the spirits for sure, and the rest could easily be faked. Now if a LoL Switch game gets announced soon, that'd help the leak instead. But if one doesn't, it's toast too. Having 1/3 of information isn't enough to matter, heh.

It was possible to predict because the game exists. Sorry if I sounded confusing, but I believe a game's existence is vital to predicting something like Trails of Mana being in Ultimate, whether it is a lucky guess or not. You can't call it hindsight just because it was just revealed now. Also, I thought you meant DLC being not paid through updates, not paying another company to use them. But still, saying this guess was impossible is not true. Like I said, anything is possible where humans are concerned, whether it be through a guess gone right or a leak that helps make a prediction. This was all done before it was revealed either way, so this is NOT hindsight. Not impossible, either. Making a prediction that turns out true before it actually gets revealed is NOT hindsight.

 

[Icewolff92]

Truth be told, while I¨m not against an LoL character in general.... one thing is for certain...
If that leak is real... especially if we are getting an Arms 2... That would be 3 characters, back to back, added for the sake of promotion.... and that idea honestly worries me, not only because how it affect Geno¨s potential inclusion but for the fighters pass as a whole

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Guys, stop. I don't believe it was possible to predict. Ever. Let it go. Responding over and over again when I said I'm done won't do anything useful.

-------------------

The leak is weird. The only thing that's likely to be fake at best is the song, and that's easier cause they didn't know the song and threw it in, or just bull****ted the costume.

The costume is very likely either way. 2 out of 4 things wouldn't be too bad. Knew one thing, predicted some other stuff. That's kind of typical for random leakers too.