Get Phoenix Wright in here and start playing the Pursuit~ tune because I believe I've cracked it, HARD. Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you a theory that not only says Geno is coming but that Geno is likely our Fighter 2: The Rule of Six!
What is the Rule of Six?: The Rule of Six, lads, is a theory regarding the addition of Newcomers in Ultimate's dev cycle. Specifically newcomers, nothing else. No spirits, assists, pokeballs, nada. As this wonderful chart will display, you may notice a few things in regard to Smash:
First off, all of the waves have consisted of six characters flat. (Not including echoes or returning veterans at all, mind you) What a strangely coincidental number, I was surprised when I realized the technicality of it. So, what does this mean? Well, nothing too important… yet. It's not the number that matters but the who was added.
Our initial lineup consisted of Inkling, Ridley, Simon, K Rool, Isabelle, and Incineroar in that order. Nothing too odd here when comparing them to one another. Let's make a list of things we know about each one.
- Inkling: (announced in March 2018, explained fully in June 2018, was sort of an E3 2018 reveal by technicality, first-party fighter)
- Ridley: (announced at E3 2018, big E3 Finisher, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)
- Simon Belmont: (announced in August 2018, generally accepted with not much surprise, third party fighter)
- King K Rool: (announced in August 2018, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)
- Isabelle: (announced in September 2018, generally accepted with not too much surprise, semi-promotional [Animal Crossing: New Horizons], first-party fighter)
- Incineroar: (announced in November 2018, was the most disliked newcomer reveal of this batch, "lackluster finale," first party fighter)
Ok, now that's done, what about the First Pass. Well, Plant's here because his development lasted into the start of FP1, so he's there by default. Well, let's do the same with this wave too, shall we?
- Piranha Plant: (announced in November 2018, first-party fighter)
- Joker: (announced in December 2018, was fully explained April 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)
- Hero: (announced at E3 2019, released in August 2019, third party fighter)
- Banjo & Kazooie: (announced at E3 2019, big E3 Finisher, released in September 2019, fan-favorite, third party fighter)
- Terry: (Announced in September 2019, released November 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)
- Byleth: (Announced & released January 2020, most disliked newcomer of this batch, semi-promotional [Fire Emblem: Three Houses], first-party fighter)
Cool, cool. So, that's all 12 that we fully know. But how does Arms help us determine a pattern? Well, let's consider this:
Arms Rep: (Announced in March 2020, released in June 2020, E3 reveal, first-party fighter)
Those are the absolutes we know. What does this establish for us? Well, my friends, this is what it established:
I'm willing to believe that we have some particulars in mind:
- Arms will be similar to Inkling and Hero, as both acted as appetizers for a much bigger meal: the E3 finale fighter.
- Arms also falls in line with Inkling and Piranha Plant, as the pass opened with a first-party character again.
But who else would fall under similar categories and patterns? Well, here's a placeholder on who I think the pass could contain. [It's a possibility, not a confirmation]
Weird list, huh? Maybe not once I explain.
Why Geno?
- Geno would follow the line of a fan favorite serving as the reveal finale for E3 in the same vein as Ridley and Banjo & Kazooie. Geno's Mii costume is also just coincidentally not in the First Pass, even when it could've come with Hero easily.
Why Lloyd Irving?
- Lloyd is a generally accepted character similar to Simon Belmont or Joker: popular in-general but not really talked much in modern speculation as frequently as other characters. Interestingly enough, his Mii costume, much like Geno's, is also missing.
Why BotW Zelda?
- Zelda is an interesting character due to serving as promotions for the BotW sequel, similar to Isabelle or Byleth. It doesn't help that Sakurai has brought her up several times in the past.
Why Monster Hunter?
- The monster hunter is sort of out there as a fighter, similar to Terry, by which I mean they are talked about but are constantly glazed over. Similarly to both Geno and Lloyd, their costumes are also missing from the first pass.
Why Rillaboom?
- I felt like we'd get another first-party fighter that could potentially make people disappointed. I would hope Nintendo wouldn't do it a third time but Byleth was proof they were willing to do it twice, so…
This Rule of Six theory is just completely out there but honestly, if it happens, maybe my quarantined madness will pay off.
Thank you, Sakurai, the devs, and all of Nintendo for making things fun for me!