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Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

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Malo Mart

Smash Ace
Joined
Sep 2, 2019
Messages
807
Location
Hyrule Castle Town
Switch FC
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Oi, it is of my belief that Geno is pretty cool and is bound to be downloadable content for Super Smash Brothers Ultimate for the Nintendo Switch some time in the future.

That's it for now, I might post something else later because I do have a LOT to say. Good to be back after being absent for 3 days though, fellers. mallowpeace.png

cacomallow real btw
 
Last edited:

link2702

Smash Champion
Joined
May 10, 2008
Messages
2,778
found the Geno.

You know....when Geno gets in smash I still hope terminal hides him in his videos still. At this point it's one of the neatest easter eggs to find for me.
 

Polarthief

Smash Lord
Joined
Nov 1, 2018
Messages
1,812
Then, since we're getting an announcement of the ARMS character and their release in June, wouldn't that mean you would also have to swap out Geno and Crash? Unless you're thinking we're getting 3 character announcements in 1 Direct which justbl doesn't seem feasible in the slightest.

You gotta put your chips on either Geno being the big E3 reveal or Crash being it.
I know it's a stretch, but I could see ARMS reveal (technically it's a Q1 reveal not an E3 reveal), then a double NEW reveal after it. From this point on, no more double reveals; DLC 9 in Q3/Q4 direct, DLC 10 in Q1 2021 direct, and DLC 11 at "E3" 2021, releasing around the Q3/Q4 direct. At that point, we get one final special announcement for a special final bonus fighter, the "Iwata Tribute" as some have called it, who will be released before 2022.

Yo, our boy TerminalMontage just released a new Something About video!
NOICE. Good stuff as always from TM!

ou know....when Geno gets in smash I still hope terminal hides him in his videos still. At this point it's one of the neatest easter eggs to find for me.
Yeah for sure. Subtle or more blunt than a brick to the face (like in the SMW speedrun), I welcome them all.
I wouldn't be surprised if in the very next video he does post-reveal, he has a reference to Geno getting the envelope. ;)
 
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Vector Victor

Smash Lord
Joined
May 27, 2019
Messages
1,961
found the Geno.

You know....when Geno gets in smash I still hope terminal hides him in his videos still. At this point it's one of the neatest easter eggs to find for me.
His inevitable video celebrating Geno playable in Smash will be him at a computer going 'Oh neat. Geno is playable.'




Then 30 minutes of loud explosions.
 

Polarthief

Smash Lord
Joined
Nov 1, 2018
Messages
1,812
His inevitable video celebrating Geno playable in Smash will be him at a computer going 'Oh neat. Geno is playable.'




Then 30 minutes of loud explosions.
I have a feeling it might be the "Geno not playable" video in reverse, and then ending with him looking at his computer: "GENO IS THE NEXT SMASH FIGHTER!" and all he'll say is "Neat".
 

Glitch-EGamer

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 16, 2019
Messages
1,104
I'M BACK FROM THE GRAVE WITH A THEORY AND HALF ABOUT OUR LAD.
*ahem* Ok, so, I've returned. The Geno wait is enjoyable this time around because I did some digging and oh boy, do I mean digging. Like, I'll blow your socks off with this bad boy. I want to see if the Fatman thinks it's worth discussing in public though, so it may be a bit. :}
 

MisterMike

Smash Champion
Joined
Jul 22, 2019
Messages
2,252
I'M BACK FROM THE GRAVE WITH A THEORY AND HALF ABOUT OUR LAD.
*ahem* Ok, so, I've returned. The Geno wait is enjoyable this time around because I did some digging and oh boy, do I mean digging. Like, I'll blow your socks off with this bad boy. I want to see if the Fatman thinks it's worth discussing in public though, so it may be a bit. :}
If it's really that good, make it your 1000th post.
 

Glitch-EGamer

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 16, 2019
Messages
1,104
If it's really that good, make it your 1000th post.
Alright, hopefully the Smash community doesn't mine this puppy up and deck me if I'm correct. :ultpacman:

(No clue if pms count as posts, so I won't risk it now, if someone can test that, that'd be swell)

(Are pictures working now?)
 
Last edited:

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

Flap and Swish~
Premium
Joined
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Cull Hazard
NNID
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3DS FC
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Switch FC
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Odd thing to ask, but, I remember a column brought up on here where Sakurai noted Pass 1 didn't have a character he wanted in. Anybody have that link?
 

pinshadow

Smash Lord
Joined
Nov 29, 2019
Messages
1,479
Odd thing to ask, but, I remember a column brought up on here where Sakurai noted Pass 1 didn't have a character he wanted in. Anybody have that link?
Pretty sure that was a misrepresentation of what he said in the Byleth article that the Fighters that were chosen weren't from his own preferences. He never mentioned the idea that there was a character he wanted that wasn't in, but I suppose it's inherently implied.
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Pretty sure that was a misrepresentation of what he said in the Byleth article that the Fighters that were chosen weren't from his own preferences. He never mentioned the idea that there was a character he wanted that wasn't in, but I suppose it's inherently implied.
Ah, thank you. I misremembered.
 

Glitch-EGamer

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 16, 2019
Messages
1,104
Get Phoenix Wright in here and start playing the Pursuit~ tune because I believe I've cracked it, HARD. Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you a theory that not only says Geno is coming but that Geno is likely our Fighter 2: The Rule of Six!



What is the Rule of Six?: The Rule of Six, lads, is a theory regarding the addition of Newcomers in Ultimate's dev cycle. Specifically newcomers, nothing else. No spirits, assists, pokeballs, nada. As this wonderful chart will display, you may notice a few things in regard to Smash:



First off, all of the waves have consisted of six characters flat. (Not including echoes or returning veterans at all, mind you) What a strangely coincidental number, I was surprised when I realized the technicality of it. So, what does this mean? Well, nothing too important… yet. It's not the number that matters but the who was added.

Our initial lineup consisted of Inkling, Ridley, Simon, K Rool, Isabelle, and Incineroar in that order. Nothing too odd here when comparing them to one another. Let's make a list of things we know about each one.

  • Inkling: (announced in March 2018, explained fully in June 2018, was sort of an E3 2018 reveal by technicality, first-party fighter)

  • Ridley: (announced at E3 2018, big E3 Finisher, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Simon Belmont: (announced in August 2018, generally accepted with not much surprise, third party fighter)

  • King K Rool: (announced in August 2018, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Isabelle: (announced in September 2018, generally accepted with not too much surprise, semi-promotional [Animal Crossing: New Horizons], first-party fighter)

  • Incineroar: (announced in November 2018, was the most disliked newcomer reveal of this batch, "lackluster finale," first party fighter)

Ok, now that's done, what about the First Pass. Well, Plant's here because his development lasted into the start of FP1, so he's there by default. Well, let's do the same with this wave too, shall we?

  • Piranha Plant: (announced in November 2018, first-party fighter)

  • Joker: (announced in December 2018, was fully explained April 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Hero: (announced at E3 2019, released in August 2019, third party fighter)

  • Banjo & Kazooie: (announced at E3 2019, big E3 Finisher, released in September 2019, fan-favorite, third party fighter)

  • Terry: (Announced in September 2019, released November 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Byleth: (Announced & released January 2020, most disliked newcomer of this batch, semi-promotional [Fire Emblem: Three Houses], first-party fighter)

Cool, cool. So, that's all 12 that we fully know. But how does Arms help us determine a pattern? Well, let's consider this:

Arms Rep: (Announced in March 2020, released in June 2020, E3 reveal, first-party fighter)

Those are the absolutes we know. What does this establish for us? Well, my friends, this is what it established:


I'm willing to believe that we have some particulars in mind:
  • Arms will be similar to Inkling and Hero, as both acted as appetizers for a much bigger meal: the E3 finale fighter.
  • Arms also falls in line with Inkling and Piranha Plant, as the pass opened with a first-party character again.

But who else would fall under similar categories and patterns? Well, here's a placeholder on who I think the pass could contain. [It's a possibility, not a confirmation]



Weird list, huh? Maybe not once I explain.

Why Geno?
  • Geno would follow the line of a fan favorite serving as the reveal finale for E3 in the same vein as Ridley and Banjo & Kazooie. Geno's Mii costume is also just coincidentally not in the First Pass, even when it could've come with Hero easily.

Why Lloyd Irving?
  • Lloyd is a generally accepted character similar to Simon Belmont or Joker: popular in-general but not really talked much in modern speculation as frequently as other characters. Interestingly enough, his Mii costume, much like Geno's, is also missing.

Why BotW Zelda?
  • Zelda is an interesting character due to serving as promotions for the BotW sequel, similar to Isabelle or Byleth. It doesn't help that Sakurai has brought her up several times in the past.

Why Monster Hunter?
  • The monster hunter is sort of out there as a fighter, similar to Terry, by which I mean they are talked about but are constantly glazed over. Similarly to both Geno and Lloyd, their costumes are also missing from the first pass.

Why Rillaboom?
  • I felt like we'd get another first-party fighter that could potentially make people disappointed. I would hope Nintendo wouldn't do it a third time but Byleth was proof they were willing to do it twice, so…

This Rule of Six theory is just completely out there but honestly, if it happens, maybe my quarantined madness will pay off.

Thank you, Sakurai, the devs, and all of Nintendo for making things fun for me!
 
Last edited:

StarLight42

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 17, 2014
Messages
1,683
If Nintendo has an E3 type Direct this year, it’s almost certain that the “hype” character of the pass is going to be announced there. God hope it’s the boi.
 

T2by4

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 3, 2019
Messages
1,165
If Nintendo has an E3 type Direct this year, it’s almost certain that the “hype” character of the pass is going to be announced there. God hope it’s the boi.
>got ridley the first e3
>got banjo the second e3

Yup. I'm thinking it's Geno time. Also we're being witnessed by a certain anonymous board because they think we're a cult. So please, cult of geno, let's be on our best behavior. No blood sacrifices to appease Lord Sakurai in hopes of getting Geno in. At least not until the new guests leave.
 

Andwooooo

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 7, 2018
Messages
258
Cool pattern, but I should remind you that people expected patterns in Smash 4 and they never happened. Remember how there was no grass Pokémon despite Greninja and Charizard being in the game? And how perfect Sceptile's inclusion would've been given that ORAS was just released at around the same time?

Lloyd and Geno I can see getting in, no question. But BotW Zelda would probably play exactly the same as her Smash counterpart, which goes against the no Echo Fighters deal. Monster Hunter is a maybe, but after seeing the franchise already represented by a boss/Assist Trophy and a Mii Fighter, I can't see them going with a full-fledged character. Maybe if Byleth with their multiple weapons gimmicks wasn't already in the first Fighter's Pass.

Finally--*if* any Pokémon are getting in, it's not going to be anything from base game Sword/Shield, and it's *definitely* not going to be the least popular starter of the generation. More than likely, they'll go with one of the new legendary Pokémon from the expansion passes.

The way I see it:

Arms > Geno > Crash Bandicoot > Lloyd Irving > Master Chief or Doom Slayer > Shill Pick
 

Glitch-EGamer

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 16, 2019
Messages
1,104
Cool pattern, but I should remind you that people expected patterns in Smash 4 and they never happened. Remember how there was no grass Pokémon despite Greninja and Charizard being in the game? And how perfect Sceptile's inclusion would've been given that ORAS was just released at around the same time?

Lloyd and Geno I can see getting in, no question. But BotW Zelda would probably play exactly the same as her Smash counterpart, which goes against the no Echo Fighters deal. Monster Hunter is a maybe, but after seeing the franchise already represented by a boss/Assist Trophy and a Mii Fighter, I can't see them going with a full-fledged character. Maybe if Byleth with their multiple weapons gimmicks wasn't already in the first Fighter's Pass.

Finally--*if* any Pokémon are getting in, it's not going to be anything from base game Sword/Shield, and it's *definitely* not going to be the least popular starter of the generation. More than likely, they'll go with one of the new legendary Pokémon from the expansion passes.

The way I see it:

Arms > Geno > Crash Bandicoot > Lloyd Irving > Master Chief or Doom Slayer > Shill Pick
That's why it's a placeholder listing. It's free to interpretation. And unlike Smash 4, we have two years of hard evidence. We'll just wait and see
 

YsDisciple

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 14, 2019
Messages
1,242
Get Phoenix Wright in here and start playing the Pursuit~ tune because I believe I've cracked it, HARD. Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you a theory that not only says Geno is coming but that Geno is likely our Fighter 2: The Rule of Six!



What is the Rule of Six?: The Rule of Six, lads, is a theory regarding the addition of Newcomers in Ultimate's dev cycle. Specifically newcomers, nothing else. No spirits, assists, pokeballs, nada. As this wonderful chart will display, you may notice a few things in regard to Smash:



First off, all of the waves have consisted of six characters flat. (Not including echoes or returning veterans at all, mind you) What a strangely coincidental number, I was surprised when I realized the technicality of it. So, what does this mean? Well, nothing too important… yet. It's not the number that matters but the who was added.

Our initial lineup consisted of Inkling, Ridley, Simon, K Rool, Isabelle, and Incineroar in that order. Nothing too odd here when comparing them to one another. Let's make a list of things we know about each one.

  • Inkling: (announced in March 2018, explained fully in June 2018, was sort of an E3 2018 reveal by technicality, first-party fighter)

  • Ridley: (announced at E3 2018, big E3 Finisher, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Simon Belmont: (announced in August 2018, generally accepted with not much surprise, third party fighter)

  • King K Rool: (announced in August 2018, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Isabelle: (announced in September 2018, generally accepted with not too much surprise, semi-promotional [Animal Crossing: New Horizons], first-party fighter)

  • Incineroar: (announced in November 2018, was the most disliked newcomer reveal of this batch, "lackluster finale," first party fighter)

Ok, now that's done, what about the First Pass. Well, Plant's here because his development lasted into the start of FP1, so he's there by default. Well, let's do the same with this wave too, shall we?

  • Piranha Plant: (announced in November 2018, first-party fighter)

  • Joker: (announced in December 2018, was fully explained April 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Hero: (announced at E3 2019, released in August 2019, third party fighter)

  • Banjo & Kazooie: (announced at E3 2019, big E3 Finisher, released in September 2019, fan-favorite, third party fighter)

  • Terry: (Announced in September 2019, released November 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Byleth: (Announced & released January 2020, most disliked newcomer of this batch, semi-promotional [Fire Emblem: Three Houses], first-party fighter)

Cool, cool. So, that's all 12 that we fully know. But how does Arms help us determine a pattern? Well, let's consider this:

Arms Rep: (Announced in March 2020, released in June 2020, E3 reveal, first-party fighter)

Those are the absolutes we know. What does this establish for us? Well, my friends, this is what it established:


I'm willing to believe that we have some particulars in mind:
  • Arms will be similar to Inkling and Hero, as both acted as appetizers for a much bigger meal: the E3 finale fighter.
  • Arms also falls in line with Inkling and Piranha Plant, as the pass opened with a first-party character again.

But who else would fall under similar categories and patterns? Well, here's a placeholder on who I think the pass could contain. [It's a possibility, not a confirmation]



Weird list, huh? Maybe not once I explain.

Why Geno?
  • Geno would follow the line of a fan favorite serving as the reveal finale for E3 in the same vein as Ridley and Banjo & Kazooie. Geno's Mii costume is also just coincidentally not in the First Pass, even when it could've come with Hero easily.

Why Lloyd Irving?
  • Lloyd is a generally accepted character similar to Simon Belmont or Joker: popular in-general but not really talked much in modern speculation as frequently as other characters. Interestingly enough, his Mii costume, much like Geno's, is also missing.

Why BotW Zelda?
  • Zelda is an interesting character due to serving as promotions for the BotW sequel, similar to Isabelle or Byleth. It doesn't help that Sakurai has brought her up several times in the past.

Why Monster Hunter?
  • The monster hunter is sort of out there as a fighter, similar to Terry, by which I mean they are talked about but are constantly glazed over. Similarly to both Geno and Lloyd, their costumes are also missing from the first pass.

Why Rillaboom?
  • I felt like we'd get another first-party fighter that could potentially make people disappointed. I would hope Nintendo wouldn't do it a third time but Byleth was proof they were willing to do it twice, so…

This Rule of Six theory is just completely out there but honestly, if it happens, maybe my quarantined madness will pay off.

Thank you, Sakurai, the devs, and all of Nintendo for making things fun for me!
*spills non-existent coffee on lap*

My God lad, I believe indeed you've cracked the case! :eek::seuss: Albeit somewhat unsure of Lloyd, Zelda, and Monster Hunter but, their classifications follow the aforementioned pattern perfectly.
 

StrangeKitten

Smash Lord
Joined
Mar 25, 2020
Messages
1,907
Location
Battle Royal Dome
>got ridley the first e3
>got banjo the second e3

Yup. I'm thinking it's Geno time. Also we're being witnessed by a certain anonymous board because they think we're a cult. So please, cult of geno, let's be on our best behavior. No blood sacrifices to appease Lord Sakurai in hopes of getting Geno in. At least not until the new guests leave.
Darn, there go my plans for the evening
 

TheShiningAbsol

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jan 9, 2020
Messages
328
Get Phoenix Wright in here and start playing the Pursuit~ tune because I believe I've cracked it, HARD. Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you a theory that not only says Geno is coming but that Geno is likely our Fighter 2: The Rule of Six!



What is the Rule of Six?: The Rule of Six, lads, is a theory regarding the addition of Newcomers in Ultimate's dev cycle. Specifically newcomers, nothing else. No spirits, assists, pokeballs, nada. As this wonderful chart will display, you may notice a few things in regard to Smash:



First off, all of the waves have consisted of six characters flat. (Not including echoes or returning veterans at all, mind you) What a strangely coincidental number, I was surprised when I realized the technicality of it. So, what does this mean? Well, nothing too important… yet. It's not the number that matters but the who was added.

Our initial lineup consisted of Inkling, Ridley, Simon, K Rool, Isabelle, and Incineroar in that order. Nothing too odd here when comparing them to one another. Let's make a list of things we know about each one.

  • Inkling: (announced in March 2018, explained fully in June 2018, was sort of an E3 2018 reveal by technicality, first-party fighter)

  • Ridley: (announced at E3 2018, big E3 Finisher, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Simon Belmont: (announced in August 2018, generally accepted with not much surprise, third party fighter)

  • King K Rool: (announced in August 2018, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Isabelle: (announced in September 2018, generally accepted with not too much surprise, semi-promotional [Animal Crossing: New Horizons], first-party fighter)

  • Incineroar: (announced in November 2018, was the most disliked newcomer reveal of this batch, "lackluster finale," first party fighter)

Ok, now that's done, what about the First Pass. Well, Plant's here because his development lasted into the start of FP1, so he's there by default. Well, let's do the same with this wave too, shall we?

  • Piranha Plant: (announced in November 2018, first-party fighter)

  • Joker: (announced in December 2018, was fully explained April 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Hero: (announced at E3 2019, released in August 2019, third party fighter)

  • Banjo & Kazooie: (announced at E3 2019, big E3 Finisher, released in September 2019, fan-favorite, third party fighter)

  • Terry: (Announced in September 2019, released November 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Byleth: (Announced & released January 2020, most disliked newcomer of this batch, semi-promotional [Fire Emblem: Three Houses], first-party fighter)

Cool, cool. So, that's all 12 that we fully know. But how does Arms help us determine a pattern? Well, let's consider this:

Arms Rep: (Announced in March 2020, released in June 2020, E3 reveal, first-party fighter)

Those are the absolutes we know. What does this establish for us? Well, my friends, this is what it established:


I'm willing to believe that we have some particulars in mind:
  • Arms will be similar to Inkling and Hero, as both acted as appetizers for a much bigger meal: the E3 finale fighter.
  • Arms also falls in line with Inkling and Piranha Plant, as the pass opened with a first-party character again.

But who else would fall under similar categories and patterns? Well, here's a placeholder on who I think the pass could contain. [It's a possibility, not a confirmation]



Weird list, huh? Maybe not once I explain.

Why Geno?
  • Geno would follow the line of a fan favorite serving as the reveal finale for E3 in the same vein as Ridley and Banjo & Kazooie. Geno's Mii costume is also just coincidentally not in the First Pass, even when it could've come with Hero easily.

Why Lloyd Irving?
  • Lloyd is a generally accepted character similar to Simon Belmont or Joker: popular in-general but not really talked much in modern speculation as frequently as other characters. Interestingly enough, his Mii costume, much like Geno's, is also missing.

Why BotW Zelda?
  • Zelda is an interesting character due to serving as promotions for the BotW sequel, similar to Isabelle or Byleth. It doesn't help that Sakurai has brought her up several times in the past.

Why Monster Hunter?
  • The monster hunter is sort of out there as a fighter, similar to Terry, by which I mean they are talked about but are constantly glazed over. Similarly to both Geno and Lloyd, their costumes are also missing from the first pass.

Why Rillaboom?
  • I felt like we'd get another first-party fighter that could potentially make people disappointed. I would hope Nintendo wouldn't do it a third time but Byleth was proof they were willing to do it twice, so…

This Rule of Six theory is just completely out there but honestly, if it happens, maybe my quarantined madness will pay off.

Thank you, Sakurai, the devs, and all of Nintendo for making things fun for me!
So much of this doesn’t really make sense to me. Regardless of when it actually came out, Plant was always planned alongside the base roster, so it really shouldn’t be counted with FP1. Hero was just as much of a fan-favorite pick in Japan as Banjo was here. And yeah, Incineroar and Byleth were probably more disliked than the others (at least in the hardcore community), but a lot of that could have been based on timing and high expectations. Arbitrarily putting them in a different category from other first parties doesn’t really make sense because ultimately it’s all subjective.

I guess I just don’t see a pattern? Every group of six has tags like “E3” and “Accepted” assigned to pretty much whatever character can make it work. It feels like you’re just taking all the characters and assigning them these tags and then saying we’ll get characters that could also have these tags, which is... kinda obvious? Like of course, we’ll have an E3 character, and of course we’ll have a character people enjoy.
 
Last edited:

Lord Woomy

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 12, 2019
Messages
927
Location
The Void
Get Phoenix Wright in here and start playing the Pursuit~ tune because I believe I've cracked it, HARD. Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you a theory that not only says Geno is coming but that Geno is likely our Fighter 2: The Rule of Six!



What is the Rule of Six?: The Rule of Six, lads, is a theory regarding the addition of Newcomers in Ultimate's dev cycle. Specifically newcomers, nothing else. No spirits, assists, pokeballs, nada. As this wonderful chart will display, you may notice a few things in regard to Smash:



First off, all of the waves have consisted of six characters flat. (Not including echoes or returning veterans at all, mind you) What a strangely coincidental number, I was surprised when I realized the technicality of it. So, what does this mean? Well, nothing too important… yet. It's not the number that matters but the who was added.

Our initial lineup consisted of Inkling, Ridley, Simon, K Rool, Isabelle, and Incineroar in that order. Nothing too odd here when comparing them to one another. Let's make a list of things we know about each one.

  • Inkling: (announced in March 2018, explained fully in June 2018, was sort of an E3 2018 reveal by technicality, first-party fighter)

  • Ridley: (announced at E3 2018, big E3 Finisher, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Simon Belmont: (announced in August 2018, generally accepted with not much surprise, third party fighter)

  • King K Rool: (announced in August 2018, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Isabelle: (announced in September 2018, generally accepted with not too much surprise, semi-promotional [Animal Crossing: New Horizons], first-party fighter)

  • Incineroar: (announced in November 2018, was the most disliked newcomer reveal of this batch, "lackluster finale," first party fighter)

Ok, now that's done, what about the First Pass. Well, Plant's here because his development lasted into the start of FP1, so he's there by default. Well, let's do the same with this wave too, shall we?

  • Piranha Plant: (announced in November 2018, first-party fighter)

  • Joker: (announced in December 2018, was fully explained April 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Hero: (announced at E3 2019, released in August 2019, third party fighter)

  • Banjo & Kazooie: (announced at E3 2019, big E3 Finisher, released in September 2019, fan-favorite, third party fighter)

  • Terry: (Announced in September 2019, released November 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Byleth: (Announced & released January 2020, most disliked newcomer of this batch, semi-promotional [Fire Emblem: Three Houses], first-party fighter)

Cool, cool. So, that's all 12 that we fully know. But how does Arms help us determine a pattern? Well, let's consider this:

Arms Rep: (Announced in March 2020, released in June 2020, E3 reveal, first-party fighter)

Those are the absolutes we know. What does this establish for us? Well, my friends, this is what it established:


I'm willing to believe that we have some particulars in mind:
  • Arms will be similar to Inkling and Hero, as both acted as appetizers for a much bigger meal: the E3 finale fighter.
  • Arms also falls in line with Inkling and Piranha Plant, as the pass opened with a first-party character again.

But who else would fall under similar categories and patterns? Well, here's a placeholder on who I think the pass could contain. [It's a possibility, not a confirmation]



Weird list, huh? Maybe not once I explain.

Why Geno?
  • Geno would follow the line of a fan favorite serving as the reveal finale for E3 in the same vein as Ridley and Banjo & Kazooie. Geno's Mii costume is also just coincidentally not in the First Pass, even when it could've come with Hero easily.

Why Lloyd Irving?
  • Lloyd is a generally accepted character similar to Simon Belmont or Joker: popular in-general but not really talked much in modern speculation as frequently as other characters. Interestingly enough, his Mii costume, much like Geno's, is also missing.

Why BotW Zelda?
  • Zelda is an interesting character due to serving as promotions for the BotW sequel, similar to Isabelle or Byleth. It doesn't help that Sakurai has brought her up several times in the past.

Why Monster Hunter?
  • The monster hunter is sort of out there as a fighter, similar to Terry, by which I mean they are talked about but are constantly glazed over. Similarly to both Geno and Lloyd, their costumes are also missing from the first pass.

Why Rillaboom?
  • I felt like we'd get another first-party fighter that could potentially make people disappointed. I would hope Nintendo wouldn't do it a third time but Byleth was proof they were willing to do it twice, so…

This Rule of Six theory is just completely out there but honestly, if it happens, maybe my quarantined madness will pay off.

Thank you, Sakurai, the devs, and all of Nintendo for making things fun for me!
This is definitely some very good theorizing, you did a really good job thinking this through. My only issue is a few of the assumptions you made I don't completely see happening. I'd think Crash could replace Zelda as a promotional pick enjoyed by the majority (Crash is popular and N Sane Trilogy is on Switch so that could make it promotional), I think Dante could fill Monster Hunter's space as a sort of out there but not by much fighter and the promotional finale could be anyone but I highly doubt it'd be a gen 8 Pokemon personally. I still def agree on Geno and Lloyd though. So you did a really good job on this! Forever keep the fact that "Lord Woomy mostly approved of your Smash theory" close to your heart (You prolly shouldn't actually, most things that have my name on it are a known carcinogen).
 

Droodle

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Get Phoenix Wright in here and start playing the Pursuit~ tune because I believe I've cracked it, HARD. Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you a theory that not only says Geno is coming but that Geno is likely our Fighter 2: The Rule of Six!



What is the Rule of Six?: The Rule of Six, lads, is a theory regarding the addition of Newcomers in Ultimate's dev cycle. Specifically newcomers, nothing else. No spirits, assists, pokeballs, nada. As this wonderful chart will display, you may notice a few things in regard to Smash:



First off, all of the waves have consisted of six characters flat. (Not including echoes or returning veterans at all, mind you) What a strangely coincidental number, I was surprised when I realized the technicality of it. So, what does this mean? Well, nothing too important… yet. It's not the number that matters but the who was added.

Our initial lineup consisted of Inkling, Ridley, Simon, K Rool, Isabelle, and Incineroar in that order. Nothing too odd here when comparing them to one another. Let's make a list of things we know about each one.

  • Inkling: (announced in March 2018, explained fully in June 2018, was sort of an E3 2018 reveal by technicality, first-party fighter)

  • Ridley: (announced at E3 2018, big E3 Finisher, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Simon Belmont: (announced in August 2018, generally accepted with not much surprise, third party fighter)

  • King K Rool: (announced in August 2018, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Isabelle: (announced in September 2018, generally accepted with not too much surprise, semi-promotional [Animal Crossing: New Horizons], first-party fighter)

  • Incineroar: (announced in November 2018, was the most disliked newcomer reveal of this batch, "lackluster finale," first party fighter)

Ok, now that's done, what about the First Pass. Well, Plant's here because his development lasted into the start of FP1, so he's there by default. Well, let's do the same with this wave too, shall we?

  • Piranha Plant: (announced in November 2018, first-party fighter)

  • Joker: (announced in December 2018, was fully explained April 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Hero: (announced at E3 2019, released in August 2019, third party fighter)

  • Banjo & Kazooie: (announced at E3 2019, big E3 Finisher, released in September 2019, fan-favorite, third party fighter)

  • Terry: (Announced in September 2019, released November 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Byleth: (Announced & released January 2020, most disliked newcomer of this batch, semi-promotional [Fire Emblem: Three Houses], first-party fighter)

Cool, cool. So, that's all 12 that we fully know. But how does Arms help us determine a pattern? Well, let's consider this:

Arms Rep: (Announced in March 2020, released in June 2020, E3 reveal, first-party fighter)

Those are the absolutes we know. What does this establish for us? Well, my friends, this is what it established:


I'm willing to believe that we have some particulars in mind:
  • Arms will be similar to Inkling and Hero, as both acted as appetizers for a much bigger meal: the E3 finale fighter.
  • Arms also falls in line with Inkling and Piranha Plant, as the pass opened with a first-party character again.

But who else would fall under similar categories and patterns? Well, here's a placeholder on who I think the pass could contain. [It's a possibility, not a confirmation]



Weird list, huh? Maybe not once I explain.

Why Geno?
  • Geno would follow the line of a fan favorite serving as the reveal finale for E3 in the same vein as Ridley and Banjo & Kazooie. Geno's Mii costume is also just coincidentally not in the First Pass, even when it could've come with Hero easily.

Why Lloyd Irving?
  • Lloyd is a generally accepted character similar to Simon Belmont or Joker: popular in-general but not really talked much in modern speculation as frequently as other characters. Interestingly enough, his Mii costume, much like Geno's, is also missing.

Why BotW Zelda?
  • Zelda is an interesting character due to serving as promotions for the BotW sequel, similar to Isabelle or Byleth. It doesn't help that Sakurai has brought her up several times in the past.

Why Monster Hunter?
  • The monster hunter is sort of out there as a fighter, similar to Terry, by which I mean they are talked about but are constantly glazed over. Similarly to both Geno and Lloyd, their costumes are also missing from the first pass.

Why Rillaboom?
  • I felt like we'd get another first-party fighter that could potentially make people disappointed. I would hope Nintendo wouldn't do it a third time but Byleth was proof they were willing to do it twice, so…

This Rule of Six theory is just completely out there but honestly, if it happens, maybe my quarantined madness will pay off.

Thank you, Sakurai, the devs, and all of Nintendo for making things fun for me!
I know what you're trying to get at. But in general, I disagree with most of your picks/points.

- We all know the first fighter is going to be from ARMS. The general consensus is Min Min, but there is a small chance it could be someone else entirely.

- 2nd fighter being Geno/Square-Enix is also very likely. I disagree with Geno being the ONLY fan-favorite Square-Enix pick. While Geno is huge in the West, I think Sephiroth/Tifa are also "fan-favorites" that people would like to see in Smash. Sephiroth is a huge request in Japan, and Tifa (while not big in the Smash community) would also be unanimously liked. Seriously, Square has stuff competition in terms of fan-favorites.

3. Lloyd Irving. Your main point supporting Lloyd is that his Mii costume is missing. But the same is true for Heihachi, and while he isn't nearly as popular as Lloyd; he is definitely more iconic. Tekken is a bigger series then Tales.

Lloyd and Geno are also both "Western" picks. Although they do have some popularity in Japan. But Lloyd in particular is THE western tales character while in Japan he's kind of unremarkable. FP 1 had a mix of characters who were popular in the west or east, or both. Knowing this, isn't it more likely we get someone who is more popular is the east right after Geno? Someone like Heihachi, or Yuri instead.

4. BOTW Zelda. We have no indication she fights, but even if she does BOTW is likely a Q1 2021 onward title at this rate. So if she does get in, it would make more sense for her to be revealed as 5 or 6 instead of 4. Besides, Nintendo of Japan never has really done a promo character that lines up with the initial release of the game. Even Corrin's game was released months earlier in Japan.

With that said, I believe the more likely pick for 4 would be a Xenoblade rep. By the time 4 releases, XC DE will have been released for a couple of months. Rex and Pyra also missed the base game due to being finished too late, and XC 2 is a favorite of Sakurai. Sakurai publicly stated that both them and ARMS would be in, and ARMS already got confirmed. Now does it have to be an Rex and Pyra, not really. They could put in Fiora or Melia in instead to "promote" XC 1 DE.

5. Monster Hunter. The only supporting point you gave was that MH is missing it's costume. Your analogy of MH being similar to a Terry-like pick is off-base, because nobody really even considered Terry. While MH had a ton of discussion as a possibility early in the game's life cycle.

6. Rillaboom. By the time 6 releases, which will probably be in the latter half of 2021; Pokemon Sword and Shield, would likely be overshadowed by Sinnoh remakes and other things. I do think 6 will get lukewarm reception; but I don't think Rillaboom would be it. Nintendo loves to end on anticlimaxes in general.

While I have criticisms with your predictions. I do think the larger trend behind them is accurate. Also I would like to state that rule of 6 is by no means a confirmed thing. A large portion of it just follows patterns that have existed since Smash 4.
 

Franco Geno

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It's been a while, how is everything going around this town my fellow genobros? also if there's an E3 type of direct then there's no way we don't end up with this outcome:
PicsArt_03-21-09.04.17.png
 

StrangeKitten

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- 2nd fighter being Geno/Square-Enix is also very likely. I disagree with Geno being the ONLY fan-favorite Square-Enix pick. While Geno is huge in the West, I think Sephiroth/Tifa are also "fan-favorites" that people would like to see in Smash. Sephiroth is a huge request in Japan, and Tifa (while not big in the Smash community) would also be unanimously liked. Seriously, Square has stuff competition in terms of fan-favorites.
And y'know, there's also Sora. I know there's contention between whether he's a Disney character or a Squeenix character, but still. He's consistently top 3, if not top 1, in fan polls. Sure, you can take those with a grain of salt since they may not be entirely accurate, but there's no denying that Sora is one of the most popular characters.
 

Andwooooo

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And y'know, there's also Sora. I know there's contention between whether he's a Disney character or a Squeenix character, but still. He's consistently top 3, if not top 1, in fan polls. Sure, you can take those with a grain of salt since they may not be entirely accurate, but there's no denying that Sora is one of the most popular characters.
There’s no contention on Sora. He’s a Disney character through and through.
 

Droodle

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Since I was looking at predictions here, allow me to post my own predictions. I don't really "follow" the rule of 6, but I try to follow general patterns as much as I can. Also I don't think ALL mii costumes are returning, there will be some that may be oddly missing; they forgot to add characters like Porky to spirit battles, I can definitely see them not able to get rights to certain mii costumes/or not bother with certain mii costumes in general.

- 1: ARMS rep. Min Min most likely, may end up being someone else on a small chance. We've been over this many times, so I don't feel like I need to discuss it. June/E3 direct reveal, probably will release the same week/day. Usually they tend to start of each release cycle with a huge bang, but ARMS is definitely an exception. I do think because of this, this pass won't be as "overwhelming" as FP 1; there will likely be 2-3 first party characters.

- 2: Geno OR Tifa. Revealed at the E3 direct. Sephiroth would be annoying to properly balance due to his truthfully enormous sword. They save their "biggest" reveals for E3 all the time, and this should be no exception to the rule. Both of them would be largely met with a largely positive response. While Geno is big in the Smash speculation sense, Tifa is big in the general iconic sense. Both are routes for entry into Smash.

- 3: Heihachi Mishima OR Sol Badguy: Revealed in the September direct. Sakurai always tends to put 1 traditional fighting game rep in with each wave of DLC. Smash 4 had Ryu, FP 1 had Terry, FP 2 should have ???. ARMS doesn't really count as a traditional fighting rep, due to it's mechanics. Regardless, both Heihachi and Sol Badguy star in iconic fighting game series that are not present yet in Smash. Both of their companies are present in Smash already, with Heihachi being owned by the developers of the game and Arcsys lending spirits to Smash.

Alternatively instead of Sol, we could get someone like Gran instead. I know that Cygames has been involved with Ultimate as early as base game, and were also involved in Byleth remixes. Dragalia has yet to get spirits, but I feel as though Granblue would represent them. I don't know if they'd choose the fighting game as the basis for Granblue or the mobile game. But I can't imagine we'll finish Smash Ultimate without some Cygames representation, whether it be just spirit battles or an actual character.

- 4: Lloyd Irving, Yuri Lowell, or Alphen from Tales OR an entirely new "smaller" company: Regardless of how much people want to believe it, THERE IS NO RULE THAT THERE CAN ONLY BE 1 CHARACTER PER COMPANY IN 1 FP. This applies even moreso to companies like Nintendo or Namco, who are actively making the game and are involved with all aspects of development. Is it unlikely? Yes. Is it impossible? Nope. Pick Lloyd if you want to appeal to the West, pick Yuri if you want to appeal to the East, pick Alphen if you want to advertise the newest game.

Or make it an entirely new company. Put in Touhou, Granblue, YS, Trails, Disgaea, etc. This character will be revealed in the annual Q1 direct in 2021.

- 5: Dante, Crash, or Sora: Big E3 showstoppers for 2021. Let's be honest all 3 of these characters are huge, and would be met with huge applause. I'd say Dante is the most likely of the 3, while Sora is the least likely of the 3. I don't really need to explain myself more.

- 6: Rex and Pyra: Yep, I imagine there will be a lot of salt if they ended the fighter's pass; but that's pretty typical of the "last" reveal. I can't imagine the toxicity would be anywhere near Byleth levels, but starting the pass with ARMS and ending with Rex and Pyra is like pottery. Alternatively put in another Xeno rep; the main reason why I chose them is because they were mentioned in the same line as ARMS by Sakurai.

This is not a definitive list, using some huge breakthroughs in speculation; but this is my gut feeling on what we can expect in this Fighters Pass.
 
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StrangeKitten

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- 6: Rex and Pyra: Yep, I imagine there will be a lot of salt if they ended the fighter's pass; but that's pretty typical of the "last" reveal. I can't imagine the toxicity would be anywhere near Byleth levels, but starting the pass with ARMS and ending with Rex and Pyra is like pottery. Alternatively put in another Xeno rep; the main reason why I chose them is because they were mentioned in the same line as ARMS by Sakurai.

This is not a definitive list, using some huge breakthroughs in speculation; but this is my gut feeling on what we can expect in this Fighters Pass.
Definitely hoping Rex and Pyra get their chance this pass. If Sakurai's gonna make up for not including ARMS, I hope he makes up for not including these two as well. He probably realized it wasn't the best move to claim ARMS and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 were released too late, then add a character from a game released roughly two years after. I know he had legitimate reasons, but still. And while it may be a little anti-climactic, it would only be Xenoblade's second character
 

Glitch-EGamer

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Guys, it's a placeholder lineup in the last picture. I thought I clarified that those characters were just examples of ones that fit those spots. You all make good points too though. Again, this is quarantine madness in a theory and yes, some of the fighters have bad reception due to timing but that's still a pattern, regardless of cause. The idea is that the attributes: generally accepted, big E3 finale, first-party starter and finisher, sort-of-out there, uh oh stinky, and promotional: are all present in the lineup. The characters just have to apply to any or some of those attributes.
 
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TheShiningAbsol

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The idea is that the attributes: generally accepted, big E3 finale, first-party starter and finisher, sort-of-out there, uh oh stinky, and promotional: are all present in the lineup. The characters just have to apply to any or some of those attributes.
But if they can just have any that apply, it's not really a pattern. Like how you've got ARMS "E3 + First Party". That didn't happen in FP1--not a pattern. Sure, we had an E3 reveal, and we got a First Party character--but not together. Isabelle as "Out there + Promotional", she doesn't have a matching character with both attributes in FP1. You can say Byleth was promotional to follow the promotional pattern, sure, but then Incineroar doesn't have a matching """uh oh""" for that pattern.

See what I mean? You can say Byleth is promotional and """uh oh""", but then that's using one character to establish a "pattern" of attributes that belonged to Isabelle and Incineroar in the first set--one character for the price of two. That's not a pattern, we can't really use it to predict characters if they can just be assigned with as many or as few attributes and mixed around as necessary.
 
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waterhasataste

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Another pastability that a lot of us have overlooked is a Smash Direct or a Smash presentation. Roy and Ryu were actually announced shortly before E3 in a separate presentation. The same could definitely happen again so that Nintendo can focus on other stuff in the actual "E3" direct.
I believe there will be a smash presentation of some kind before an E3 level June Direct. My best guess is that we get an ARMS Sakurai presentation revealing the ARMS character like a week or 2 before the June Presentation then during the June Presentation, we get 2 reveals like last year. I feel like it will be Geno and Crash. Them being revealed close to one another makes sense especially if they started being rumored together in the same month like you mentioned. Additionally assuming Cacomallow is legit, Cacomallow leak features one costume related to Mario RPG, and one costume related to a western character roughly in the same stages of development. Coincidentally this does sync well with both Geno and Crash

The June wait will be torture
 
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Icewolff92

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- 2: Geno OR Tifa. Revealed at the E3 direct. Sephiroth would be annoying to properly balance due to his truthfully enormous sword. They save their "biggest" reveals for E3 all the time, and this should be no exception to the rule. Both of them would be largely met with a largely positive response. While Geno is big in the Smash speculation sense, Tifa is big in the general iconic sense. Both are routes for entry into Smash.
If they can make Ridley work, I argue that they can make Sepiroth work. But I don¨t disagree that a Final Fantasy 7 rep is arguably Genos biggest contender concidering how big that game it is, and the remake releasing this year, and if there would be one, it would be Tifa or Sepiroth. Hell, for what we know, we could get both (FF7 rep and Geno) concidering how buddy-buddy Square and Nintendo are right now.


- 3: Heihachi Mishima OR Sol Badguy: Revealed in the September direct. Sakurai always tends to put 1 traditional fighting game rep in with each wave of DLC. Smash 4 had Ryu, FP 1 had Terry, FP 2 should have ???. ARMS doesn't really count as a traditional fighting rep, due to it's mechanics. Regardless, both Heihachi and Sol Badguy star in iconic fighting game series that are not present yet in Smash. Both of their companies are present in Smash already, with Heihachi being owned by the developers of the game and Arcsys lending spirits to Smash.
If Namco is getting a rep, I can¨t see it being anyone else but Heihachi with the runner up being Loyd. Both are fan favorites, both have their costumes Missing, but Tekken is also their most recognizable IP next to Pacman, and like Geno, Heihachi is someone that Sakurai has wanted to include before.

https://sourcegaming.info/2015/06/26/800/

Why Rillaboom?
  • I felt like we'd get another first-party fighter that could potentially make people disappointed. I would hope Nintendo wouldn't do it a third time but Byleth was proof they were willing to do it twice, so…
If we are getting a Pokemon, it will be someone like Urusifu within June going in line with the Isle of Armor DLC that is releasing in June or Calyrex for Crown Tundra which releases in fall. I¨m not arguing about that there could be a first-party promotional with their last DLC. But there will be another game then (laughs in ironic thoughts of the idea that it could be Lyn for a Blazing Sword remake even though I highly doubt it)
 
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Loliko YnT

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This made me realize I will burst into tears of joy if Geno is added to Ultimate.

Do it for the fans, Sakurai!
It's been a while, how is everything going around this town my fellow genobros? also if there's an E3 type of direct then there's no way we don't end up with this outcome:View attachment 267675
This made me remember how many times I watched this Geno PM Mod video... It's taking me back , haha. It's barely been 2 years since I'm supporting Geno , but it feel like forever. Maybe it's because I was a fan of the Mario RPGS ever since I played Partners in Time and constantlly watched PMTTYD videos when I was very young , so Geno always felt like an old buddy I was never able to met , like Mallow lol.

Also , as a big DB fan , I approve this edit. Just hoping that Geno don't get cocky against Cell , would be a shame to lose our momentum , since we're basically at the finish line :)
 

Fatmanonice

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Then, since we're getting an announcement of the ARMS character and their release in June, wouldn't that mean you would also have to swap out Geno and Crash? Unless you're thinking we're getting 3 character announcements in 1 Direct which justbl doesn't seem feasible in the slightest.

You gotta put your chips on either Geno being the big E3 reveal or Crash being it.
I already explained this and it's likely we're getting one of the three scenarios:

1. ARMS presentation is totally separate and the E3 presentation has 2 reveals.

2. There's a separate Smash presentation.

3. Nintendo just says **** it and has a 3 in the E3 presentation.

Of the 8 E3s Smash has been present at, 7 had multiple reveals and 6 had 3 or more so the odds of at least a double are pretty high. Technically this is a similar scenario to 2018 when Inkling was teased in March but wasn't shown off until June and then we got Daisy and Ridley too.
 

SpiritOfRuin

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Get Phoenix Wright in here and start playing the Pursuit~ tune because I believe I've cracked it, HARD. Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you a theory that not only says Geno is coming but that Geno is likely our Fighter 2: The Rule of Six!



What is the Rule of Six?: The Rule of Six, lads, is a theory regarding the addition of Newcomers in Ultimate's dev cycle. Specifically newcomers, nothing else. No spirits, assists, pokeballs, nada. As this wonderful chart will display, you may notice a few things in regard to Smash:



First off, all of the waves have consisted of six characters flat. (Not including echoes or returning veterans at all, mind you) What a strangely coincidental number, I was surprised when I realized the technicality of it. So, what does this mean? Well, nothing too important… yet. It's not the number that matters but the who was added.

Our initial lineup consisted of Inkling, Ridley, Simon, K Rool, Isabelle, and Incineroar in that order. Nothing too odd here when comparing them to one another. Let's make a list of things we know about each one.

  • Inkling: (announced in March 2018, explained fully in June 2018, was sort of an E3 2018 reveal by technicality, first-party fighter)

  • Ridley: (announced at E3 2018, big E3 Finisher, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Simon Belmont: (announced in August 2018, generally accepted with not much surprise, third party fighter)

  • King K Rool: (announced in August 2018, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Isabelle: (announced in September 2018, generally accepted with not too much surprise, semi-promotional [Animal Crossing: New Horizons], first-party fighter)

  • Incineroar: (announced in November 2018, was the most disliked newcomer reveal of this batch, "lackluster finale," first party fighter)

Ok, now that's done, what about the First Pass. Well, Plant's here because his development lasted into the start of FP1, so he's there by default. Well, let's do the same with this wave too, shall we?

  • Piranha Plant: (announced in November 2018, first-party fighter)

  • Joker: (announced in December 2018, was fully explained April 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Hero: (announced at E3 2019, released in August 2019, third party fighter)

  • Banjo & Kazooie: (announced at E3 2019, big E3 Finisher, released in September 2019, fan-favorite, third party fighter)

  • Terry: (Announced in September 2019, released November 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Byleth: (Announced & released January 2020, most disliked newcomer of this batch, semi-promotional [Fire Emblem: Three Houses], first-party fighter)

Cool, cool. So, that's all 12 that we fully know. But how does Arms help us determine a pattern? Well, let's consider this:

Arms Rep: (Announced in March 2020, released in June 2020, E3 reveal, first-party fighter)

Those are the absolutes we know. What does this establish for us? Well, my friends, this is what it established:


I'm willing to believe that we have some particulars in mind:
  • Arms will be similar to Inkling and Hero, as both acted as appetizers for a much bigger meal: the E3 finale fighter.
  • Arms also falls in line with Inkling and Piranha Plant, as the pass opened with a first-party character again.

But who else would fall under similar categories and patterns? Well, here's a placeholder on who I think the pass could contain. [It's a possibility, not a confirmation]



Weird list, huh? Maybe not once I explain.

Why Geno?
  • Geno would follow the line of a fan favorite serving as the reveal finale for E3 in the same vein as Ridley and Banjo & Kazooie. Geno's Mii costume is also just coincidentally not in the First Pass, even when it could've come with Hero easily.

Why Lloyd Irving?
  • Lloyd is a generally accepted character similar to Simon Belmont or Joker: popular in-general but not really talked much in modern speculation as frequently as other characters. Interestingly enough, his Mii costume, much like Geno's, is also missing.

Why BotW Zelda?
  • Zelda is an interesting character due to serving as promotions for the BotW sequel, similar to Isabelle or Byleth. It doesn't help that Sakurai has brought her up several times in the past.

Why Monster Hunter?
  • The monster hunter is sort of out there as a fighter, similar to Terry, by which I mean they are talked about but are constantly glazed over. Similarly to both Geno and Lloyd, their costumes are also missing from the first pass.

Why Rillaboom?
  • I felt like we'd get another first-party fighter that could potentially make people disappointed. I would hope Nintendo wouldn't do it a third time but Byleth was proof they were willing to do it twice, so…

This Rule of Six theory is just completely out there but honestly, if it happens, maybe my quarantined madness will pay off.

Thank you, Sakurai, the devs, and all of Nintendo for making things fun for me!
I see what you're saying but couldn't it also be something like this:

1. First Party Pick: Inkling, PP, ARMS
2. Characters deemed impossible: Ridley too big, Joker too disconnected from Nintendo practically a Sony rep, someone else impossible like a MC/Sony rep or maybe Rex since he couldn't make it in FP1 due to being too new but I'm thinking Crash
3. A generally acceptable 3rd party: Simon, Hero, then Lloyd makes sense could be Dante or Crash edit: Hayabusa also makes sense here
4. The big boi fan reveal: KKR, Banjo, and obviously Geno (seems most likely as relevance clearly doesn't matter in the previous 2 choices), Lloyd, Isaac could get this spot
5. Surprise character that appeals to very specific groups of gamers: Isabelle, Terry, and hard to say especially knowing so little of upcoming Nintendo games maybe Iwata tribute because I feel like sensible people would understand that kind of pick but some of the fandom would flip their lids and it's definitely for a specific group of gamers
6. Generally unwanted possibly shill first party: Pokemon makes sense but by the time this fighter comes out it'd probably have to be gen 9 in all seriousness and sense we don't really know what's coming it's really hard to say for this one.

All that being said, nothing says this pass will reflect any previous patterns. ARMS alone has potential to shake things up with promotions. Of course like I mentioned before it's hard to say if Nintendo sees promotions the same way fans do, so who knows what's going through their minds. At any rate this is at least helpful for fueling discussion and thinking about how the pass could look based on past patterns that we may be looking too much into because again Nintendo isnt speculating every day like we are and are far removed from the same terminology and understandings we have.
 
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Icewolff92

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According to VGC, Nintendo are doing some big stuff for their favorite plumber, claiming like others that a Paper Mario is arriving.
https://twitter.com/AndyPlaytonic/status/1244622217381646338


5. Mixed reactions surprise character: Isabelle, Terry, and hard to say especially knowing so little of upcoming Nintendo games maybe first party like Sylux or Waluigi or third party like Iwata tribute because I feel like sensible people would understand that kind of pick but some of the fandom would flip their lids
Is it just me that thinks if Waluigi get¨s in, Geno won¨t or wise versa?
 
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