Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

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Get Phoenix Wright in here and start playing the Pursuit~ tune because I believe I've cracked it, HARD. Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you a theory that not only says Geno is coming but that Geno is likely our Fighter 2: The Rule of Six!



What is the Rule of Six?: The Rule of Six, lads, is a theory regarding the addition of Newcomers in Ultimate's dev cycle. Specifically newcomers, nothing else. No spirits, assists, pokeballs, nada. As this wonderful chart will display, you may notice a few things in regard to Smash:



First off, all of the waves have consisted of six characters flat. (Not including echoes or returning veterans at all, mind you) What a strangely coincidental number, I was surprised when I realized the technicality of it. So, what does this mean? Well, nothing too important… yet. It's not the number that matters but the who was added.

Our initial lineup consisted of Inkling, Ridley, Simon, K Rool, Isabelle, and Incineroar in that order. Nothing too odd here when comparing them to one another. Let's make a list of things we know about each one.

  • Inkling: (announced in March 2018, explained fully in June 2018, was sort of an E3 2018 reveal by technicality, first-party fighter)

  • Ridley: (announced at E3 2018, big E3 Finisher, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Simon Belmont: (announced in August 2018, generally accepted with not much surprise, third party fighter)

  • King K Rool: (announced in August 2018, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Isabelle: (announced in September 2018, generally accepted with not too much surprise, semi-promotional [Animal Crossing: New Horizons], first-party fighter)

  • Incineroar: (announced in November 2018, was the most disliked newcomer reveal of this batch, "lackluster finale," first party fighter)

Ok, now that's done, what about the First Pass. Well, Plant's here because his development lasted into the start of FP1, so he's there by default. Well, let's do the same with this wave too, shall we?

  • Piranha Plant: (announced in November 2018, first-party fighter)

  • Joker: (announced in December 2018, was fully explained April 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Hero: (announced at E3 2019, released in August 2019, third party fighter)

  • Banjo & Kazooie: (announced at E3 2019, big E3 Finisher, released in September 2019, fan-favorite, third party fighter)

  • Terry: (Announced in September 2019, released November 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Byleth: (Announced & released January 2020, most disliked newcomer of this batch, semi-promotional [Fire Emblem: Three Houses], first-party fighter)

Cool, cool. So, that's all 12 that we fully know. But how does Arms help us determine a pattern? Well, let's consider this:

Arms Rep: (Announced in March 2020, released in June 2020, E3 reveal, first-party fighter)

Those are the absolutes we know. What does this establish for us? Well, my friends, this is what it established:


I'm willing to believe that we have some particulars in mind:
  • Arms will be similar to Inkling and Hero, as both acted as appetizers for a much bigger meal: the E3 finale fighter.
  • Arms also falls in line with Inkling and Piranha Plant, as the pass opened with a first-party character again.

But who else would fall under similar categories and patterns? Well, here's a placeholder on who I think the pass could contain. [It's a possibility, not a confirmation]



Weird list, huh? Maybe not once I explain.

Why Geno?
  • Geno would follow the line of a fan favorite serving as the reveal finale for E3 in the same vein as Ridley and Banjo & Kazooie. Geno's Mii costume is also just coincidentally not in the First Pass, even when it could've come with Hero easily.

Why Lloyd Irving?
  • Lloyd is a generally accepted character similar to Simon Belmont or Joker: popular in-general but not really talked much in modern speculation as frequently as other characters. Interestingly enough, his Mii costume, much like Geno's, is also missing.

Why BotW Zelda?
  • Zelda is an interesting character due to serving as promotions for the BotW sequel, similar to Isabelle or Byleth. It doesn't help that Sakurai has brought her up several times in the past.

Why Monster Hunter?
  • The monster hunter is sort of out there as a fighter, similar to Terry, by which I mean they are talked about but are constantly glazed over. Similarly to both Geno and Lloyd, their costumes are also missing from the first pass.

Why Rillaboom?
  • I felt like we'd get another first-party fighter that could potentially make people disappointed. I would hope Nintendo wouldn't do it a third time but Byleth was proof they were willing to do it twice, so…

This Rule of Six theory is just completely out there but honestly, if it happens, maybe my quarantined madness will pay off.

Thank you, Sakurai, the devs, and all of Nintendo for making things fun for me!
I see what you're saying but couldn't it also be something like this:

1. First Party Pick: Inkling, PP, ARMS
2. Characters deemed impossible: Ridley too big, Joker too disconnected from Nintendo practically a Sony rep, someone else impossible like a MC/Sony rep or maybe Rex since he couldn't make it in FP1 due to being too new but I'm thinking Crash
3. A generally acceptable 3rd party: Simon, Hero, then Lloyd makes sense could be Dante or Crash edit: Hayabusa also makes sense here
4. The big boi fan reveal: KKR, Banjo, and obviously Geno (seems most likely as relevance clearly doesn't matter in the previous 2 choices), Lloyd, Isaac could get this spot
5. Surprise character that appeals to very specific groups of gamers: Isabelle, Terry, and hard to say especially knowing so little of upcoming Nintendo games maybe Iwata tribute because I feel like sensible people would understand that kind of pick but some of the fandom would flip their lids and it's definitely for a specific group of gamers
6. Generally unwanted possibly shill first party: Pokemon makes sense but by the time this fighter comes out it'd probably have to be gen 9 in all seriousness and sense we don't really know what's coming it's really hard to say for this one.

All that being said, nothing says this pass will reflect any previous patterns. ARMS alone has potential to shake things up with promotions. Of course like I mentioned before it's hard to say if Nintendo sees promotions the same way fans do, so who knows what's going through their minds. At any rate this is at least helpful for fueling discussion and thinking about how the pass could look based on past patterns that we may be looking too much into because again Nintendo isnt speculating every day like we are and are far removed from the same terminology and understandings we have.
 
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According to VGC, Nintendo are doing some big stuff for their favorite plumber, claiming like others that a Paper Mario is arriving.
https://twitter.com/AndyPlaytonic/status/1244622217381646338


5. Mixed reactions surprise character: Isabelle, Terry, and hard to say especially knowing so little of upcoming Nintendo games maybe first party like Sylux or Waluigi or third party like Iwata tribute because I feel like sensible people would understand that kind of pick but some of the fandom would flip their lids
Is it just me that thinks if Waluigi get¨s in, Geno won¨t or wise versa?
 
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Firox

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Cool pattern, but I should remind you that people expected patterns in Smash 4 and they never happened. Remember how there was no grass Pokémon despite Greninja and Charizard being in the game? And how perfect Sceptile's inclusion would've been given that ORAS was just released at around the same time?

Lloyd and Geno I can see getting in, no question. But BotW Zelda would probably play exactly the same as her Smash counterpart, which goes against the no Echo Fighters deal. Monster Hunter is a maybe, but after seeing the franchise already represented by a boss/Assist Trophy and a Mii Fighter, I can't see them going with a full-fledged character. Maybe if Byleth with their multiple weapons gimmicks wasn't already in the first Fighter's Pass.

Finally--*if* any Pokémon are getting in, it's not going to be anything from base game Sword/Shield, and it's *definitely* not going to be the least popular starter of the generation. More than likely, they'll go with one of the new legendary Pokémon from the expansion passes.

The way I see it:

Arms > Geno > Crash Bandicoot > Lloyd Irving > Master Chief or Doom Slayer > Shill Pick
Pretty much nailed it. I'm not super sure about Crash and Lloyd to be honest, but this seems like the most likely outcome given everything we know so far.
 

Fatmanonice

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So, it seems that there will be ports, and maybe a sunshine remake that someone here suggested that.
I'm going to laugh until my ass falls off like a broken hubcap if the Sunshine remaster and new 3D Mario at E3 rumors wound up being true. Because of Corona, Nintendo is basically waiting for June for like everything so if most of my major rumors come true after waiting for some of them to come to fruition since literally August, people won't know what to do with themselves.
 
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Basically, there are high chances that none of the Smash speculation will be addressed until mid June when E3 would have rolled around. Until then, we won't have any idea which ARMs character it is, if the spirits/AT/Mii fanrule is finally and officially destroyed or who is next.

That is going to be a key reveal
 
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I'm going to laugh until my ass falls off like a broken hubcap if the Sunshine remaster and new 3D Mario at E3 rumors wound up being true. Because of Corona, Nintendo is basically waiting for June for like everything so if most of my major rumors come true after waiting for some of them to come to fruition since literally August, people won't know what to do with themselves.
A Sunshine remaster would be so good... I know the game has ton of issues , but dang , Mario is so fun to control in this game.

And hey , maybe that picture of Mario eating watermelon finally meant something in the end :4pacman:
 

Firox

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Hey guys, I got a Theory™!.....

What if the reason Nintendo held back on revealing the ARMS character is because it IS going to be a spirit promotion and they know that we're already expecting Geno? They might have thought that Geno's reveal would be even MORE earthshattering if it came right behind the jaw-dropper of spirits no longer deconfirming! A double nuclear bomb WOULD be hype as all hell. Especially after such a long wait.
 
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Hey guys, I got a Theory™!.....

What if the reason Nintendo held back on revealing the ARMS character is because it IS going to be a spirit promotion and they know that we're already expecting Geno? They might have thought that Geno's reveal would be even MORE earthshattering if it came right behind the jaw-dropper of spirits no longer deconfirming! A double nuclear bomb WOULD be hype as all hell. Especially after such a long wait.
Again I ask: do we have any inclination that Nintendo would actually be aware of these silly fan rules? I'm going to keep pointing out that we live in a literal Smash bubble when it comes to stuff like this. Anyone not involved in speculation would not be aware of these fan rules so it really boils down to how attentive Nintendo is and I'd argue they're probably not very attentive to stuff like this. But for those of us who are, that would be insane. I think we need to pay close attention to how this ARMS character is revealed and what is in the trailer. If the trailer or Sakurai presentation involves anything to do with spirits/ATs/Mii costumes and this idea of a promotion then that is huge and means Nintendo/Sakurai are actually aware of this stuff and they purposefully added characters with that in mind. I'm still worried it could be Max Brass due to him having an actual role in ARMS, but I do think it's probably Min Min or Spring Man/Ribbon Girl or a Hero/Bowser Jr situation.
 

Firox

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Again I ask: do we have any inclination that Nintendo would actually be aware of these silly fan rules? I'm going to keep pointing out that we live in a literal Smash bubble when it comes to stuff like this. Anyone not involved in speculation would not be aware of these fan rules so it really boils down to how attentive Nintendo is and I'd argue they're probably not very attentive to stuff like this. But for those of us who are, that would be insane. I think we need to pay close attention to how this ARMS character is revealed and what is in the trailer. If the trailer or Sakurai presentation involves anything to do with spirits/ATs/Mii costumes and this idea of a promotion then that is huge and means Nintendo/Sakurai are actually aware of this stuff and they purposefully added characters with that in mind. I'm still worried it could be Max Brass due to him having an actual role in ARMS, but I do think it's probably Min Min or Spring Man/Ribbon Girl or a Hero/Bowser Jr situation.
.......and then I remember how 9 times out of 10, Nintendo couldn't give two ****s what the fanbase thinks or feels. Then again, they were fully aware of the "too many swordsmen" thing. It's hard to say if we're underestimating them or not.
 

zferolie

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I'm going to laugh until my ass falls off like a broken hubcap if the Sunshine remaster and new 3D Mario at E3 rumors wound up being true. Because of Corona, Nintendo is basically waiting for June for like everything so if most of my major rumors come true after waiting for some of them to come to fruition since literally August, people won't know what to do with themselves.
You know.... i could see this as a great way to announce Geno for smash...
 
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.......and then I remember how 9 times out of 10, Nintendo couldn't give two ****s what the fanbase thinks or feels. Then again, they were fully aware of the "too many swordsmen" thing. It's hard to say if we're underestimating them or not.
That's true. Good point about the "too many swordsmen" thing. Like you said, it's a matter of whether they care or not though. Guess we'll have to wait and see...just over 2 months to go...
 
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Again I ask: do we have any inclination that Nintendo would actually be aware of these silly fan rules?
Yes. If they're aware of Waluigi and Geno's demand, they're even more aware of the fanrules people have set in place.

I'm going to keep pointing out that we live in a literal Smash bubble when it comes to stuff like this. Anyone not involved in speculation would not be aware of these fan rules so it really boils down to how attentive Nintendo is and I'd argue they're probably not very attentive to stuff like this.
Even outside of the poll, I'm sure they're seeing some level of speculation.

Then again, they were fully aware of the "too many swordsmen" thing
That was more of a Sakurai thing, not a Nintendo thing, though I'm sure Sakurai explained the joke to them. We live in 2020; there's no way you can just slip things in anymore. This isn't the old 80s-early 2000s age anymore.

Hey guys, I got a Theory™!.....
It's a pretty neato one and that would be awesome if it happened!
 

Fatmanonice

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A Sunshine remaster would be so good... I know the game has ton of issues , but dang , Mario is so fun to control in this game.

And hey , maybe that picture of Mario eating watermelon finally meant something in the end :4pacman:
That's the funny thing about the Sunshine remaster. Supposedly NoA was super coy about it to the point that employees were having arguments out in the open about whether it actually meant anything. Keep in mind that NoA also did with their employees with Tales and then, boom, we got the 25th anniversary announcement in January. This is yet another reason I haven't dumped Waluigi from my predictions because friends of mine that work/worked at NoA have claimed that this is yet another topic that supervisors dance around and play dumb about.

On that topic, people know some of this **** super far in advance and I've noticed that the "playful" stage is usually when its decently far off. "Ha ha, wouldn't it be funny if..." That sort of thing. I think this is why a lot of people were super ****in' cheeky about a ton of games back in December/January because they knew the announcements were probably like half a year off at least. This is also why I give credit to a lot of the rumors I heard in the fall because, slowly, a number of them have come true like the Wonderful 101 remaster and a Pokemon RPG remaster so now it's just the waiting game.
 
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I'd just like to say that I've watched a hell of a lot of ARMS in the past few days because I want to try and get a feel for what we're in for, and have better thought out arguments for why a certain character is a viable pick for this spot, and I'm proud to say...

****ing nothing, I was absolutely right - ARMS is a boring game with horrible pacing, almost no "advantage" stage, and every character is essentially the same guy sporting different fists of varying effectiveness against each other. Everything else is just visual flair. Stretchy ****ing Little Mac is what we're in for, but everyone will claim Mac is still worse than this character thanks to recovery and probably a command grab.

HOWEVER... I do think it's very interesting how similar Byleth's command grab mechanics are to the way grabs in ARMS look, all the way down to the opponent getting spiked at the end. ARMS did it for that DBZ effect, I'm sure, but I could see that same mechanic getting reused for Spring Man Mystery ARMS Character.

Get Phoenix Wright in here and start playing the Pursuit~ tune because I believe I've cracked it, HARD. Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you a theory that not only says Geno is coming but that Geno is likely our Fighter 2: The Rule of Six!



What is the Rule of Six?: The Rule of Six, lads, is a theory regarding the addition of Newcomers in Ultimate's dev cycle. Specifically newcomers, nothing else. No spirits, assists, pokeballs, nada. As this wonderful chart will display, you may notice a few things in regard to Smash:



First off, all of the waves have consisted of six characters flat. (Not including echoes or returning veterans at all, mind you) What a strangely coincidental number, I was surprised when I realized the technicality of it. So, what does this mean? Well, nothing too important… yet. It's not the number that matters but the who was added.

Our initial lineup consisted of Inkling, Ridley, Simon, K Rool, Isabelle, and Incineroar in that order. Nothing too odd here when comparing them to one another. Let's make a list of things we know about each one.

  • Inkling: (announced in March 2018, explained fully in June 2018, was sort of an E3 2018 reveal by technicality, first-party fighter)

  • Ridley: (announced at E3 2018, big E3 Finisher, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Simon Belmont: (announced in August 2018, generally accepted with not much surprise, third party fighter)

  • King K Rool: (announced in August 2018, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Isabelle: (announced in September 2018, generally accepted with not too much surprise, semi-promotional [Animal Crossing: New Horizons], first-party fighter)

  • Incineroar: (announced in November 2018, was the most disliked newcomer reveal of this batch, "lackluster finale," first party fighter)

Ok, now that's done, what about the First Pass. Well, Plant's here because his development lasted into the start of FP1, so he's there by default. Well, let's do the same with this wave too, shall we?

  • Piranha Plant: (announced in November 2018, first-party fighter)

  • Joker: (announced in December 2018, was fully explained April 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Hero: (announced at E3 2019, released in August 2019, third party fighter)

  • Banjo & Kazooie: (announced at E3 2019, big E3 Finisher, released in September 2019, fan-favorite, third party fighter)

  • Terry: (Announced in September 2019, released November 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Byleth: (Announced & released January 2020, most disliked newcomer of this batch, semi-promotional [Fire Emblem: Three Houses], first-party fighter)

Cool, cool. So, that's all 12 that we fully know. But how does Arms help us determine a pattern? Well, let's consider this:

Arms Rep: (Announced in March 2020, released in June 2020, E3 reveal, first-party fighter)

Those are the absolutes we know. What does this establish for us? Well, my friends, this is what it established:


I'm willing to believe that we have some particulars in mind:
  • Arms will be similar to Inkling and Hero, as both acted as appetizers for a much bigger meal: the E3 finale fighter.
  • Arms also falls in line with Inkling and Piranha Plant, as the pass opened with a first-party character again.

But who else would fall under similar categories and patterns? Well, here's a placeholder on who I think the pass could contain. [It's a possibility, not a confirmation]



Weird list, huh? Maybe not once I explain.

Why Geno?
  • Geno would follow the line of a fan favorite serving as the reveal finale for E3 in the same vein as Ridley and Banjo & Kazooie. Geno's Mii costume is also just coincidentally not in the First Pass, even when it could've come with Hero easily.

Why Lloyd Irving?
  • Lloyd is a generally accepted character similar to Simon Belmont or Joker: popular in-general but not really talked much in modern speculation as frequently as other characters. Interestingly enough, his Mii costume, much like Geno's, is also missing.

Why BotW Zelda?
  • Zelda is an interesting character due to serving as promotions for the BotW sequel, similar to Isabelle or Byleth. It doesn't help that Sakurai has brought her up several times in the past.

Why Monster Hunter?
  • The monster hunter is sort of out there as a fighter, similar to Terry, by which I mean they are talked about but are constantly glazed over. Similarly to both Geno and Lloyd, their costumes are also missing from the first pass.

Why Rillaboom?
  • I felt like we'd get another first-party fighter that could potentially make people disappointed. I would hope Nintendo wouldn't do it a third time but Byleth was proof they were willing to do it twice, so…

This Rule of Six theory is just completely out there but honestly, if it happens, maybe my quarantined madness will pay off.

Thank you, Sakurai, the devs, and all of Nintendo for making things fun for me!
Props to you for sitting down and illustrating a theory, that's the kind of creativity we need more of rather than circular bickering and chasing off ****posters. Even if it's a reach, it's something and you deserve a pat on the back.

That said, I think it's been mentioned in this thread (and plenty of other places) that the more one's theory relies on assumptions, the less valid it gets under scrutiny and this is no exception - and I don't need to fall back on "muh patterns", so I won't even mention it. Starting with base roster, there's already a problem: "fan favorite".

I'll give you that Inkling was an E3 reveal - the initial reveal of the character was confusing and I was of the assumption Smash 4 was just getting ported with some bonus characters and a new outfit for Link or something, but Inkling is much more than a first party promotional pick - Inkling was likely huge on the official Smash ballot and did well on fan ballots. Splatoon itself is a massively successful franchise, probably better received than any new Nintendo IP since Animal Crossing, and putting Inkling in Smash is one of the rare instances of a character being a "no, duh" moment with probably everyone that plays Smash - Splatoon is a cross-generational hit with a unique charm.

Obviously Ridley was added for the fans, so there's no reason to even discuss him, but Simon is also a fan pick, Richter even more. There are people who have been wanting Simon probably for as long as myself and other old guys in here have wanted Geno - Castlevania is undeniably an icon of gaming and Simon is the face of it for many fans. I remember the support for him during the Brawl days and certainly the Smash 4 days when Mega Man made it clear that third party representation didn't necessarily require the franchise to be alive. Richter is just icing on an already delicious cake. Likewise, you nailed K. Rool as a fan favorite.

Now let's talk Isabelle. I don't like her and have not liked her since her introduction in New Leaf. She's one of those characters that doesn't sit right with me - the kind that millions of dollars was poured into for a team of scientists to research exactly what makes a lovable character. She's a lab grown mascot character for a franchise that honestly didn't need one. I'm throwing this out there so that you understand that me saying this is coming from a place of deep ire for the thought: she's a fan favorite - another character that likely did impressively well on the official Smash ballot due to her results on fan polls. Why wouldn't she be a fan favorite when I just said she was made for the express purpose of being a fan favorite? People were practically forced to like her, and the general reaction to her inclusion was not just accepting, but overwhelmingly positive. She was very much the first "hoes mad" character, but she's a fan favorite through and through.

There were and are people who like Incineroar, but I'm not going to pretend like he's popular by any stretch of the imagination. Really, at this point, unless you're the most popular Pokemon of all time (which I guess is already in the game) or not a starter, you'll never be loved by the Smash fandom. In terms of reveal position, yeah, I'll give you that he fills the role of "unwanted final character"... but I'm not really a fan of that pattern either for reasons I have enumerated before.

That reason would be:
For what it's worth, Jigglypuff is officially considered the last character in Smash 64 despite being almost universally the first unlock, and she does fill the role of total joke that no one would have ever asked for, but I see everyone's ire drawn to Ness as the underwhelming final character, probably as a result of his unlock method (which isn't that complicated, really... Fun Fact: Nintendo Power had a contest that really hyped up his challenging unlock method in which if you sent in a photograph showing that you had unlocked him, you got like 100 points to use in their shop, which was a tiny magazine inserted into the middle of the magazine, full of plush toys and holders for your consoles/games. 100 points was pretty big, since you typically only got 2 of the things per issue of the shop pamphlet.).

All of that out of the way, no one complained for even a second that Ness was a secret character in Smash 64 because back then, we were just happy to get another character. His gameplay was unique and his status as a literal who elevated Earthbound/Mother as a franchise to a whole new level of popularity. He was very much a shill for a game that never happened (Earthbound 64) and now he's a fan favorite and considered a staple to the series that cannot be removed under penalty of law. No one hates Ness' inclusion but everyone is sick of dealing with him. Really, think about it - out of the 4 secret characters in Smash 64, all but Luigi would be unwelcome today. At that point Captain Falcon had "been in" two games, relegated to the instruction manual and artwork in F-Zero X, Jigglypuff is very much a joke primarily based on the Pokemon anime, and I basically just went over Ness. How far we've fallen, to hate characters at all... But I'm guilty as charged.

Game and Watch was definitely a strange inclusion but a lot of people liked him due to his goofy expression and totally broken Side B that kills at nearly 0%. Again, due to the time period, we were just happy to get yet another character, regardless of who it was.

Brawl's probably the first game that it's safe to say maybe people would be disappointed with an inclusion. It's the first game a lot of us old timers remember seriously speculating about thanks to the fact that by 2006 the internet was really picking up steam and we were old enough to use a keyboard, but also the trailer really hyped us up for what it meant to have a character included. Looking back on it, it's so basic, but when a hype character shows up on screen with that damn "NEWCOMER" banner, you're enthralled and I think as a result of how it's presented, you start to expect every character to be a bombshell. The things people wanted in like, 2004 and 2005 were just thrown at us left and right in that trailer - Meta Knight and Wario definitely, but there were tons of people thrilled by Pit, obscure as he was at the time.

By the numbers, which I'm going to have to consider "official", Wolf was the final addition to Brawl and honestly? I think most people wanted him and really liked him. Wolf being in the opening of Melee but not being playable is a Ridley situation that was answered very quickly, and his exclusion from Smash 4 has to be the only reason people started to think he wasn't popular. The biggest controversy about him back in the day was that his specials made him look very similar to Fox, but his normals really made him stand out. Really, I'd say the underwhelming picks were the people we already knew about long before the game came out, like Lucario or (as much as I hate to do it to my boy) Lucas.

Smash 4 really is where it all changed, and where this idea that someone can be underwhelming comes from. Mega Man was a powerful lead off and another character that had been cooking in the minds of fans since Melee, with Sonic and Solid ****ing Snake in Brawl, his absence was extremely notable. I would love to understand what it was about Smash 4 that turned character speculation into an arms race, because really, it started out no different than Brawl. Animal Crossing character was a fan request in Brawl and Sakurai went against his opinions to include Villager in 4. By character number, Duck Hunt is the last of the base roster (which kind of contradicts the fact that Bowser Jr. was pushing the clock to the point that he almost didn't make it in), and I remember people really wanting the Duck Hunt dog back in Brawl. I don't know why or what they expected him to do, they just wanted him - probably because before the game released, we were so used to "troll" characters that we were all willing to accept it and laugh at how creative he'd probably be. It's so silly to dislike Duck Hunt, and I personally don't consider him underwhelming - the moveset is extremely creative and the amount of respect he pays to the Zapper games is outstanding. Smash 4's DLC is especially where this idea that the last character is underwhelming comes from, mostly due to the massive amount of distaste for Corrin and the unbelievable amount of salt that Bayonetta generated, probably not helped by the fact that in the English direct, these two were called ballot winners when that was provably a lie. Corrin really is indefensible, but Bayonetta honestly isn't that bad of a pick.

Have I gone off on enough of a tangent? Holy ****...

Obviously you're not really wrong about the Ultimate DLC squad so far, but I think it's a bit of a reach to include Piranha Plant in there just to line up with this 6 man theory. There's a universe not far from our own where the base game newcomers include it and I think it should be considered a base game newcomer. Plant is very different from Mewtwo, in that Mewtwo in Smash 4 was advertised as totally bonus, post game content and I'm inclined to believe it based on where Bowser Jr. was in base development. Piranha Plant was so done and ready they gave it away as long as you bought the game in a reasonable time frame. The real base roster of the game, in my eyes, ends with Incineroar and Piranha Plant, which in your logic means the roster went from "uh oh, stinky" to "dude weed lmao why", which breaks the pattern. Also, I'll just throw out there that I think the lack of the echo fighters shows an instance of an omission in order to justify the theory, especially since the added echo fighters are all heavy fan requests aside from Ken, who just made sense.

Honestly looking at all this, I think I've said enough. While I wrote this text wall a lot of neat stuff has come out into the open, so let me just calmly state...

It's happening.
 

Firox

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****ing nothing, I was absolutely right - ARMS is a boring game with horrible pacing, almost no "advantage" stage, and every character is essentially the same guy sporting different fists of varying effectiveness against each other. Everything else is just visual flair. Stretchy ****ing Little Mac is what we're in for, but everyone will claim Mac is still worse than this character thanks to recovery and probably a command grab.

HOWEVER... I do think it's very interesting how similar Byleth's command grab mechanics are to the way grabs in ARMS look, all the way down to the opponent getting spiked at the end. ARMS did it for that DBZ effect, I'm sure, but I could see that same mechanic getting reused for Spring Man Mystery ARMS Character.
Exactly this. My consensus? Fun, but not worth $60.
 

Fatmanonice

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It would be hilarious if we got Geno and Waluigi in the same presentation. For example, they wind up doing something similar to Plant with Waluigi and he's a freebie if you outright buy Season 2 or something. Like I keep saying, I think they're going to shoehorn Waluigi in at some point but I don't know when.
 
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I'm going to laugh until my ass falls off like a broken hubcap if the Sunshine remaster and new 3D Mario at E3 rumors wound up being true. Because of Corona, Nintendo is basically waiting for June for like everything so if most of my major rumors come true after waiting for some of them to come to fruition since literally August, people won't know what to do with themselves.
seems like you might’ve been right on the money!

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndyPlaytonic/status/1244649527090479112
 
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That's the funny thing about the Sunshine remaster. Supposedly NoA was super coy about it to the point that employees were having arguments out in the open about whether it actually meant anything. Keep in mind that NoA also did with their employees with Tales and then, boom, we got the 25th anniversary announcement in January. This is yet another reason I haven't dumped Waluigi from my predictions because friends of mine that work/worked at NoA have claimed that this is yet another topic that supervisors dance around and play dumb about.

On that topic, people know some of this **** super far in advance and I've noticed that the "playful" stage is usually when its decently far off. "Ha ha, wouldn't it be funny if..." That sort of thing. I think this is why a lot of people were super ****in' cheeky about a ton of games back in December/January because they knew the announcements were probably like half a year off at least. This is also why I give credit to a lot of the rumors I heard in the fall because, slowly, a number of them have come true like the Wonderful 101 remaster and a Pokemon RPG remaster so now it's just the waiting game.

While the various hints of future plans being floated around by various sources and whatnot is nice and all, I'm getting a bit tired of all the coyness and just want Nintendo to confirm things instead of dancing around it. Like, they just need to get to the point already. I would be driven crazy if I was an insider if I knew of something was coming but Nintendo took almost a full year to actually spit it out. And not helping things is their gaming and news drought, which started well before the virus really kicked in.

Nintendo: 'Wouldn't it be funny if this happened?' -aside glance, cheeky smile-
Fans: 'Wouldn't it be funny if you just came out and said it, damn it?'
 

MarioTime

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IF MARIO GALAXY IS TRULY COMING TO SWITCH IM GONNA CRY

Anyways good morning I'm still confident in Geno for Smash
So, it seems that there will be ports, and maybe a sunshine remake that someone here suggested that.
DON'T DO THAT DON'T GIVE ME HOPE
 
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Powerman293

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Again I ask: do we have any inclination that Nintendo would actually be aware of these silly fan rules? I'm going to keep pointing out that we live in a literal Smash bubble when it comes to stuff like this. Anyone not involved in speculation would not be aware of these fan rules so it really boils down to how attentive Nintendo is and I'd argue they're probably not very attentive to stuff like this. But for those of us who are, that would be insane. I think we need to pay close attention to how this ARMS character is revealed and what is in the trailer. If the trailer or Sakurai presentation involves anything to do with spirits/ATs/Mii costumes and this idea of a promotion then that is huge and means Nintendo/Sakurai are actually aware of this stuff and they purposefully added characters with that in mind. I'm still worried it could be Max Brass due to him having an actual role in ARMS, but I do think it's probably Min Min or Spring Man/Ribbon Girl or a Hero/Bowser Jr situation.
On one hand, I agree that Nintendo may not be aware of the fan rules. But on the other... they knew how important bringing back Snake and Pokemon Trainer were to have spotlight in the initial Smash Ultimate trailer.
 
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Yes. If they're aware of Waluigi and Geno's demand, they're even more aware of the fanrules people have set in place.



Even outside of the poll, I'm sure they're seeing some level of speculation.



That was more of a Sakurai thing, not a Nintendo thing, though I'm sure Sakurai explained the joke to them. We live in 2020; there's no way you can just slip things in anymore. This isn't the old 80s-early 2000s age anymore.



It's a pretty neato one and that would be awesome if it happened!
I don't think fan demand and fan rules would garner the same level of attention from Nintendo at all. Fan demand is much more in your face on the internet. There's the ballot and other polls, fake rosters galore, entire threads on many websites dedicated to just one character, etc. Whereas fan rules are certainly still something you could come across in articles and speculation but it's not in your face and you you have to go more out of your way to see and understand it.

And no offense to you my Geno bro, but you being sure they're seeing some level of speculation doesn't really show me any inclination that they are. I think Firox did make a good point about Sakurai mentioning the too many swordsmen joke. And while you're right about it being Sakurai that was aware of the "too many swordsmen" thing I cannot imagine Nintendo wouldn't as well especially with how closely Sakurai works with Nintendo for the DLC.

Again I don't think we will know the answer to this until we see a promotion actually be part of a trailer or referenced by Sakurai specifically. But Sakurai being aware of the swordsmen thing at least shows they're aware of more than we may realize.

Edit: Powerman293 Powerman293 true but again I think that is fan demand not fan rules. Nintendo is much more likely to see backlash regarding stuff like AT relegation, fan demand, fan reaction to omissions, etc than specific speculation. But Firox did point out the swordsmen thing so who knows? Maybe I'm not giving them enough credit.
 
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MrJudd

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Get Phoenix Wright in here and start playing the Pursuit~ tune because I believe I've cracked it, HARD. Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you a theory that not only says Geno is coming but that Geno is likely our Fighter 2: The Rule of Six!



What is the Rule of Six?: The Rule of Six, lads, is a theory regarding the addition of Newcomers in Ultimate's dev cycle. Specifically newcomers, nothing else. No spirits, assists, pokeballs, nada. As this wonderful chart will display, you may notice a few things in regard to Smash:



First off, all of the waves have consisted of six characters flat. (Not including echoes or returning veterans at all, mind you) What a strangely coincidental number, I was surprised when I realized the technicality of it. So, what does this mean? Well, nothing too important… yet. It's not the number that matters but the who was added.

Our initial lineup consisted of Inkling, Ridley, Simon, K Rool, Isabelle, and Incineroar in that order. Nothing too odd here when comparing them to one another. Let's make a list of things we know about each one.

  • Inkling: (announced in March 2018, explained fully in June 2018, was sort of an E3 2018 reveal by technicality, first-party fighter)

  • Ridley: (announced at E3 2018, big E3 Finisher, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Simon Belmont: (announced in August 2018, generally accepted with not much surprise, third party fighter)

  • King K Rool: (announced in August 2018, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)

  • Isabelle: (announced in September 2018, generally accepted with not too much surprise, semi-promotional [Animal Crossing: New Horizons], first-party fighter)

  • Incineroar: (announced in November 2018, was the most disliked newcomer reveal of this batch, "lackluster finale," first party fighter)

Ok, now that's done, what about the First Pass. Well, Plant's here because his development lasted into the start of FP1, so he's there by default. Well, let's do the same with this wave too, shall we?

  • Piranha Plant: (announced in November 2018, first-party fighter)

  • Joker: (announced in December 2018, was fully explained April 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Hero: (announced at E3 2019, released in August 2019, third party fighter)

  • Banjo & Kazooie: (announced at E3 2019, big E3 Finisher, released in September 2019, fan-favorite, third party fighter)

  • Terry: (Announced in September 2019, released November 2019, generally accepted fighter, third party fighter)

  • Byleth: (Announced & released January 2020, most disliked newcomer of this batch, semi-promotional [Fire Emblem: Three Houses], first-party fighter)

Cool, cool. So, that's all 12 that we fully know. But how does Arms help us determine a pattern? Well, let's consider this:

Arms Rep: (Announced in March 2020, released in June 2020, E3 reveal, first-party fighter)

Those are the absolutes we know. What does this establish for us? Well, my friends, this is what it established:


I'm willing to believe that we have some particulars in mind:
  • Arms will be similar to Inkling and Hero, as both acted as appetizers for a much bigger meal: the E3 finale fighter.
  • Arms also falls in line with Inkling and Piranha Plant, as the pass opened with a first-party character again.

But who else would fall under similar categories and patterns? Well, here's a placeholder on who I think the pass could contain. [It's a possibility, not a confirmation]



Weird list, huh? Maybe not once I explain.

Why Geno?
  • Geno would follow the line of a fan favorite serving as the reveal finale for E3 in the same vein as Ridley and Banjo & Kazooie. Geno's Mii costume is also just coincidentally not in the First Pass, even when it could've come with Hero easily.

Why Lloyd Irving?
  • Lloyd is a generally accepted character similar to Simon Belmont or Joker: popular in-general but not really talked much in modern speculation as frequently as other characters. Interestingly enough, his Mii costume, much like Geno's, is also missing.

Why BotW Zelda?
  • Zelda is an interesting character due to serving as promotions for the BotW sequel, similar to Isabelle or Byleth. It doesn't help that Sakurai has brought her up several times in the past.

Why Monster Hunter?
  • The monster hunter is sort of out there as a fighter, similar to Terry, by which I mean they are talked about but are constantly glazed over. Similarly to both Geno and Lloyd, their costumes are also missing from the first pass.

Why Rillaboom?
  • I felt like we'd get another first-party fighter that could potentially make people disappointed. I would hope Nintendo wouldn't do it a third time but Byleth was proof they were willing to do it twice, so…

This Rule of Six theory is just completely out there but honestly, if it happens, maybe my quarantined madness will pay off.

Thank you, Sakurai, the devs, and all of Nintendo for making things fun for me!
This theory is really good and it really has something going for it that caught my attention. But let's scramble some of the tags:
CP6: Arms was 100% promotional: An open tourney out of nowhere, free game trial and the revival of Party Crash, all at the same time when the game was mostly forgotten. While I found him awesome, everyone thought they would open with a reasonably big third-party, so it's stinky for those who wanted something more crazy (also it's a fighting game rep). Also, if the pandemic didn't happen, Arms would be releasing way earlier, so we can free up the E3 slot to someone else. I believe it's a Hero situation, with 4 alts at least: Springman, Ribbon Girl, Min Min and Ninjara, being the AT upgrade for this pass.
CP7: Geno is still in the right spot, nothing to change there, although he's kinda in a weird place where could be called a "first-party", but, for the sake of the argument, let's not put it here for now. This is the spirit upgrade for the pass. Also, the 35th anniversary announcement for Mario? Talk about the dunk of the millenia!
CP8: I think we will also get a character enjoyed by the majority, but it's not Zelda. It would have been at E3, but now it will be pushed to September. Now who's the most agreed upon character for this pass? Crash Bandicoot is the one that comes to mind.
CP9: Time for another first-party that missed base game and another upgrade, this time for a Mii Costume upgrade: Rex & Pyra/Mythra. ARMS and Xenoblade 2 are the two new picks that missed base game and I think they will take this pass to put them in. I know there's other legacy first-party picks they could choose, but I think this pass will be 1/3 fan favorites, 1/3 legacy picks, 1/3
CP10: For generally accepted, anyone from Capcom or Namco would fit the bill here: Lyoid Irving, Dante, Phoenix Wright, Heihachi, Chosen Undead and picks like that. I'm gonna guess Phoenix Wright, but no idea here.
CP11: That leaves us only with the sorta out there, but not by much. Something interesting about this pick is that whenever someone is chosen for this category, it's a icon for their respective series and their genre:
- Isabelle: Animal Crossing and Simulation Games
- Terry: Fatal Fury/King of Fighters and Fighting Games
So, based on that, I think we're getting a FPS character: Either Doom Guy or Master Chief. It we take Cacomallow as gossip, then Doom Guy would be 8 or 9 at the latest, so that leaves us with the Chief.

Ignoring who I think it is, I believe you also got a possible timeframe for announcements and releases. I was going to use the FP1 as a reference, but with the date changes, a mix of both Base and FP1 will help us much more with announcement windows:
  • Arms: (announced in March 2020, explained fully in June 2020 at a E3 2020 Smash Direct)
  • Geno: (announced at E3 2020 Smash Direct, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)
  • Crash: (announced at E3 2020 Smash Direct, big finisher, third party fighter)
  • Rex/Pyra: (announced in a Direct in September 2020, fan-favorite, first-party fighter)
  • Namco/Capcom rep: (announced in a Direct in September 2020, third-party fighter)
  • Master Chief: (announced in The Game Awards 2020, third party fighter)
Lastly, if there's a season 3 at all, I expect some already discussed picks like Waluigi, whoever isn't CP10, etc.

PS: I'm starting to think that there was a #MAR10 big blowout presentation with games, park information, the animated movie, Lego (hey, remember the listing?) and possibly more that was postponed due to the plague, and considering what NateDrake is saying of something happening before May, this could be it (remember that he was right about a Direct only happening after Animal Crossing releasing back in the start of February).
 
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I don't think fan demand and fan rules would garner the same level of attention from Nintendo at all. Fan demand is much more in your face on the internet. There's the ballot and other polls, fake rosters galore, entire threads on many websites dedicated to just one character, etc. Whereas fan rules are certainly still something you could come across in articles and speculation but it's not in your face and you you have to go more out of your way to see and understand it.

And no offense to you my Geno bro, but you being sure they're seeing some level of speculation doesn't really show me any inclination that they are. I think Firox did make a good point about Sakurai mentioning the too many swordsmen joke. And while you're right about it being Sakurai that was aware of the "too many swordsmen" thing I cannot imagine Nintendo wouldn't as well especially with how closely Sakurai works with Nintendo for the DLC.

Again I don't think we will know the answer to this until we see a promotion actually be part of a trailer or referenced by Sakurai specifically. But Sakurai being aware of the swordsmen thing at least shows they're aware of more than we may realize.
But if Sakurai's aware of stuff like this, he can make them aware as they make the trailer. If we can get a "too many swordsmen" joke, we can absolutely get a "oh, you thought spirits deconfirmed?" joke or something to that effect.
 
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But if Sakurai's aware of stuff like this, he can make them aware as they make the trailer. If we can get a "too many swordsmen" joke, we can absolutely get a "oh, you thought spirits deconfirmed?" joke or something to that effect.
Agreed which is why I said we would simply have to wait and see what the trailer looks like.
 
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Bruhs... imagine if as the breaking news are implying, we end up getting remakes such as:

> Super Mario 64, but with Odyssey visuals (Odyssey did include a Mario 64 costume)
> Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars, but with Octopath Traveler visuals
> Super Mario Sunshine & Galaxy, again with Odyssey visuals

:eek:

And mah man KOIZUMI rolls up with Super Mario Kart 9!

Oh, and of course, Geno for Smash. :2gud:
 
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SM64? Again? Odd.

I wonder if SM64 is an HD remake or if N64 NSO is coming (alongside a ton of NES/SNES games?). The reason I ask that is because "SM64... and Sunshine HD coming to Switch", dunno if that means "both are HD remakes" or "HD remake of Sunshine, and also SM64 is coming (as an N64 NSO thing)".
I mean, Super Mario 64 is an iconic game, and Sunshine is something people have begged to see remastered. Also, I doubt we are getting an NSO. Most fan-favorite games are either in licensing hell (games like golden eye) or owned by Microsoft (Rare). and if we ever gonna get the latter, it will be through Microsoft porting over Rare Replay
 
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So, it seems that there will be ports, and maybe a sunshine remake that someone here suggested that.
Christ, I NEED a good HD remake of Super Mario 64. The one on the DS was alright and the extra content was great, but those controls, man. Nothing ruins a 3D game like SM64 like forcing you to use the D-Pad to move around in 3D space. Super Mario Sunshine remake is also something we desperately need.
Hey guys, I got a Theory™!.....

What if the reason Nintendo held back on revealing the ARMS character is because it IS going to be a spirit promotion and they know that we're already expecting Geno? They might have thought that Geno's reveal would be even MORE earthshattering if it came right behind the jaw-dropper of spirits no longer deconfirming! A double nuclear bomb WOULD be hype as all hell. Especially after such a long wait.
Hmm, maybe. I mean, it wouldn't be the first time they got cheeky and played with fan's expectations.

SM64? Again? Odd.

I wonder if SM64 is an HD remake or if N64 NSO is coming (alongside a ton of NES/SNES games?). The reason I ask that is because "SM64... and Sunshine HD coming to Switch", dunno if that means "both are HD remakes" or "HD remake of Sunshine, and also SM64 is coming (as an N64 NSO thing)".
I'd imagine they're both HD remakes, since those games are decades old at this point and there's been no rumors of N64 NSO as of yet. They'll probably wait to launch something like that closer to the 2nd year of NSO like they did with SNES games for the 1st year.
 
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I'd imagine they're both HD remakes
Yeah I'm more in that boat too, but it is possible for the other outcome, just not very likely.

I just wish they'd add more SNES games. :/ Every time I look at it, I'm like "oh yeah, this is what I'm paying yearly for since online either barely works or is super inconvenient (see: ACNH)".
 
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TriggerX

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No Idea if anyone has mentioned this lately, but with the rumours of remasters of some mario games swirling around I had a hopeful thought.

While I doubt SMRPG would be remastered, to promote a Geno reveal it would be cool to obviously release SMRPG on SNES Online, but if galaxy is getting remastered Geno would probably fit well as bonus content. IDK maybe as an additional world, playable character, or some other cameo. If they do plan on remaking any of these games it would be a shame not to add any additional content.
 
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Fatmanonice

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So now we basically have confirmation that Mario in general will be heavily focused on in the "E3" presentation... This is slowly going from humble pie to humble buffet and it's still about 2 months out. Also, throw up another checkmark for the "at least 7 remakes/remasters in 2020" rumor. 1 confirmed, 1 all but confirmed, and 4 heard by other people aside from me, giving credence that the last one has a decent chance of being true too.
 

NonSpecificGuy

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I already explained this and it's likely we're getting one of the three scenarios:

1. ARMS presentation is totally separate and the E3 presentation has 2 reveals.

2. There's a separate Smash presentation.

3. Nintendo just says **** it and has a 3 in the E3 presentation.

Of the 8 E3s Smash has been present at, 7 had multiple reveals and 6 had 3 or more so the odds of at least a double are pretty high. Technically this is a similar scenario to 2018 when Inkling was teased in March but wasn't shown off until June and then we got Daisy and Ridley too.
3 seems incredibly unlikely to be shown off at the same time especially when the cut off line for this DLC is throughout 2021. I highly doubt they would throw out 3 of the 6 right away when there's still over a year to go.
 
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3 seems incredibly unlikely to be shown off at the same time especially when the cut off line for this DLC is throughout 2021. I highly doubt they would throw out 3 of the 6 right away when there's still over a year to go.
2 releases around July/August, 3 releases around Sept/Oct, possibly Nov.
4 by Q3/4 direct. Releases around end of the year/January 2021.
5 by Q1 direct 2021, releases around E3
6 by Q2/E3 direct 2021, releases around Q3/4 direct.
Any bonus characters, including the possible Iwata tribute character, revealed at Q3/4 direct, releases before 2022.

I could see this happening. Even if there's delays for their releases, I don't see why we couldn't get 3 reveals for this "E3".
 
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One more thought: Sakurai was also aware of the Duck Hunt/Banjo meme in addition to the too many swordsmen thing. Perhaps I am not giving enough credit after all. It's very possible that things like Twitter allow Sakurai to really see a lot of the fans' thoughts regarding Smash potentially including fan rules. Again this isn't concrete evidence there is awareness of this spirits disconfirm fan rule though and we will still have to wait and see and look for clues or blatant statements in the ARMS character reveal and/or Sakurai presentation for the ARMS character. I mean if the trailer ends up being a whole big list of spirits with red X's on them then a glove comes bursting through that list and it turns out that list was actually the outside of an assist trophy that is cracking and falling apart as Spring Man emerges then there's clearly no denying that they are aware of this fan rule lol. I hope it shows spirits/ATs don't disconfirm and that we do get multiple characters in one with some customization options of some kind. Get as creative as you can get with this pass Sakurai. Let's see what you can do.
 

MrJudd

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3 seems incredibly unlikely to be shown off at the same time especially when the cut off line for this DLC is throughout 2021. I highly doubt they would throw out 3 of the 6 right away when there's still over a year to go.
I think 3 is unlikely, but why would they release less packs than FP1 having the double of the time? It makes no sense at all, especially considering how ahead the schedule it actually happened. We will probably be done with this before June 2021.
 
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