I would not be surprised.. Like
Loliko YnT
said in a previous post. This could easily just be a pass where they have chosen based on "leftover money". And if they had only leftover money to go on, what stops Nintendo to go in and add a little extra for the sake of promotion. I mean... what does a commercial about that you can play Arms for free right on cue after the reveal scream if not shill pick? Wouldn¨t even be surprised if we are getting an announcement for Arms 2 in June at this point when Nintendo is okay doing two shill picks back to back concidering they could only announce from what franchise but not specific character.
While my point about "leftover money" still stand ( It's been one year and a half since Ultimate release , people still following Smash news are Nintendo fans and Smash fans, and less the general crowd) I doubt it'll be shill pick galore.
Due to the complicated current times we're having , Spring Man might have not been supposed to be Fighter 6 for all we know. Or maybe they didn't cared much about the order of things.
Now , I want to explain why I'm so confident in Spring Man :
ARMS is an arena fighter. And ARMS is focused on it's core gameplay , like any game like this. Now , ARMS main gameplay is pretty peculiar , and every character show how they all approach these mechanics. However , you need a character to explain these wild mechanics , hence why poster boy/girl are needed.
Not all fighting games have attacks with such high range and commitements , so you need your straightforward character that rely on the core basics on the game to teach you everything. However , these characters focus on fundamentals , and reflect perfectly the level of knowledge someone has on the game.
In the context of ARMS , the game , Spring Man may feel generic. But in the context of Smash , he absolutely isn't. His design is simple , but nobody can punch you from accross half of Final Destination from what I'm aware of. This is a pretty wild design choice , and is already
very hard to balance , Sakurai said it himself. Give him too much range and not enough recovery frames , and he is busted , give him too many recovery frames , and every move he do is more commital than Ganondorf's up-tilt.
So , if instead of Spring Man , you pick someone else from the franchise , you have to respect the base core gameplay ,
on top of how this specific character approach this core fighting style. This would make balancing a nightmare... And would make people think that "yeah , that's how every character approach the fighting in this game" while it's not. It wouldn't represent the core of the Fighting style of ARMS.
"But he's an Assist Trophy , and a spirit , too !"
Well , Nintendo asked for an ARMS rep , and I doubt they bothered about that detail. An assist trophy is a
a singular item out of like 60 , wich has a 1,5% of summoning the character you want. This isn't a traditional assist from a 3vs3 Fighting game , it's a funny item to provoke some chaos.
Furthermore , Chrom. Also , to show an example from a different game : Android 17 from FighterZ. Android 17 was a core part of Android 18 moveset , he represent almost all of her special moves. Remove 17 , and 18 pretty much has one super , one kienzan , and some okay normals. And despise that , Bandai Namco still decided to add Android 17 as a stand alone character.
"But they would prefer to pick a fan-favorite from ARMS , like Twintelle !"
I already addressed this point before , but : Sakurai can take some liberties , and add those fan-favorites as alts. (Also , for proportions issues : Morton is supposed to be 3 times bigger than Bower Jr. , yet he's the same size as Junior in Smash. He can tweak the height of characters , and he can find a solution for Twintelle.)
"But they could announce the main character of ARMS 2 instead !"
Yes , we could get a sequel. However , the core gameplay will remain the same , they will just build on top of it , making it even more complex.
So you still need Spring Man to teach the basics to new and returning players. Yes , they will expend on the cast.
And they could add ARMS 2 characters as alts ! (One of the biggest reasons I think we don't have more details)
"But the main character of ARMS 2 could be someone else !"
But why ? Why kick Spring Man out , and design
someone else that will litteraly do the same job as him ? It would be like removing Ryu from Street Fighter 2 , and adding "Mr. Karate man" , that will do the same things as Ryu , but with a new design just to shake things up and nothing else , when they already established Ryu's name !
"But ARMS Flopped ! They might want to reboot some characters !"
ARMS didn't flopped. It sold more than 2 millions units , and for a new franchise , that's fantastic. The reason everyone think this : It released a week before Splatoon 2 , and got no updates.
It wasn't because the characters were bland. It's because Nintendo made a fighting game focused on it's core gameplay , and didn't bothered to support it like they did with Splatoon and Smash.