I'm just waiting the new smash game; Ultimate is not Geno's chance
Your opinion of Geno's chances are a roller coaster, friend.
... But I do agree with the general consensus that Ultimate is his last chance. I think it's easy for guys around my age (which this thread is maybe unsurprisingly made up of) to have our childhood games so fresh in our minds, for us to hold them in such high regard, for us to go back and replay them so often... and forget just how old they are.
One of the things that sticks with me about just how much time has passed is a comment I read before Ultimate came out regarding Isaac - if he were put into Ultimate as a playable character, he would be older at the time of inclusion (2001-2018) than Ice Climbers were when they were included in Melee (1985-2001). Granted, it isn't by
much, and if we went by time since last appearance it wouldn't be true, but the point stands. Now, don't get me wrong, I don't think this is a real barrier for entry, as Hero essentially waited 33 years, Pac-Man for 24 and Banjo for 21, but as a detractor would be quick to point out, Geno isn't a company mascot or an icon of gaming, or the main character of a Mario 64 knockoff (the spiciest take I'll dispense today, most likely), he's just a side character that Nintendo doesn't own.
Really, though? None of that matters. It's all just a weak attempt at trying to create some logic to justify what are essentially total random inclusions. Maybe one day when Sakurai finally calls it quits we'll know exactly how characters were chosen, but as it stands, anyone's chances are as good as anyone else, barring obvious BS picks like Batman or Goku.
In general, I think looking to the future of Smash is ill advised if your character isn't playable yet. We have no idea what the future is going to look like for a game that, at this point, has got to be the most tangled legal spaghetti to ever exist. This is the sort of discussion I got into with a friend once - we've got a game where Solid Snake and Cloud Strife are together on the box (of the special edition, at least) - how long does Nintendo get to keep the rights to market such a thing? Is it even feasible at this point to do the easiest possible thing and port it for all eternity with a few extra characters/new rounds of DLC every time? To put the cherry on top of that, this is a cooperation of businesses, and we never know when relations could sour, or someone could just stop existing. Sure, it's unlikely for Square to just go bankrupt in between now and the time frame for the next Smash, but what about someone like SNK? There's so many "if"s involved in Smash's future at this point that it's really just best to live in the now and demand what you want while the Switch is relevant, since with enough fan demand, they could produce DLC for this game for the rest of the Switch's life (and if the demand is high enough, not doing so is just leaving money on the table). We have to be noisy for Geno
now and we can't just roll over and die like we've been conditioned to do thanks to 4 games of no/limited DLC.
Our boy got a mii costume with a goddamn splash screen and it's not back yet despite K. Rool and Isabelle being playable characters. He's coming, hold onto those dreams. Lloydbros too, we're all gonna make it.