Huh ? That's what I said two tracks per games : two FFVII tracks, two DQIII, two DQIV, two DQVIII, two DQXI and then two SMRPG tracks.
About the Mii Costume, yes it could be possible in the same way that Sans was packed with an undertale music, but why smash team would tease Geno like that if it's to put a second time a disappointing mii costume especially when we know they are aware of the popularity of the character (mii splash screen) ?
About the Geno spirit, what I think is that Sakurai didn't knew before the sales of Smash if Nintendo would allow the Smash team to produce more DLCs after the pass. As the CEO of Nintendo suggest, the fighter pass characters choices was about making some deals with third compagnies. So I think it's possible that Sakurai put Geno spirit in the case of Nintendo would not allow more fighters after those who was planned, so Geno is at least represented in the game.
About your first point:
- The Smash team likely never cared about the whole music tracks being taken down, I don't know why it's used as a huge point FOR Geno's inclusion (Though it does support it slightly). They would NEVER hint at a character's presence by taking down a music track, and they probably didn't think it was going to be taken extremely seriously.
-Putting SMRPG references is not a definitive hint towards Geno in Smash. For example, Sakurai outright used the Camelot angle for official advertisement of Smash Ultimate; but Isaac didn't get added into the game as a fighter.
-Isaac was one of the most popular characters going into the Ultimate speculation cycle (even moreso then Geno); and all they did was reveal a Mii costume and AT in the very last Ultimate prerelease direct. If Nintendo did it once, it is possible for them to do it again.
-About your second point: Spirits were definitely used to add in series that Sakurai wanted to represent in some form, but just couldn't add as fighters at the time. I agree with you on that much.
-However, we aren't guaranteed 100% to see any spirits upgraded to fighters. Is it possible? Yes. Is it guaranteed? No.
Even then, Geno has decent competition in terms of spirits:
-Shantae
-Rayman
I think AT's have just as good of shot at being upgraded, which adds:
-Isaac
-Waluigi
And on top of that, that isn't considering other more recent (still requested characters):
-Akira Howard
-Byleth
-Rex and Pyra
And that isn't even counting most new potential 3rd party characters that could be represented.
So here are my thoughts on Geno's chances:
Chance of being upgraded? Likely (90%)
Chance of being upgraded to a Mii costume? Likely (70%)
Chance of being upgraded to an uograded Mii costume? Possible (50%)
Chance of being upgraded to a full on fighter? Unlikely (30%)
I don't mean this as a person who hates Geno. But as an Isaac fan, it's better to keep your expectations in check until he is confirmed (or disconfirmed).