I'll try best
-Source that Papa Geno's talks to that has some credibility shares that he has a source from IGN saying Crash is coming to Smash as fighter #5
-This same IGN source appearently gave this same leaker info of some Mii Costumes back in July before Hero was released. The list was:
-Goemon
-Protoman
-Zero
-Mallow
-Smithy
-Chocobo
-Rocket Grunts
The list basically called all Mii Costumes that came with Banjo minus Sans
-Additionally, he said there would be no Mii Costumes from Microsoft which he also got correct
I want to first thank you for your speedy and detailed reply. That said, here's my two cents on the matter:
-If the leaker really did predict the reveal of Goemon and Rocket Grunts, then those two costumes alone are a huge boon to their credibility due to the seemingly random nature of their inclusion, at least for the time in which they were revealed....however...
-The fact that they also predicted Mallow, Smithy and Chocobo which DIDN'T come to pass, that kinda hurts the street cred they earned with the costumes mentioned above
-The upside is that if Mallow, Smithy and Chocobo DO end up as real costumes, then this leak would all but confirm Geno as a playable fighter. There would be no other possible scenario if those were confirmed as costumes and Geno wasn't.
-The real question I have is whether we have a time-stamped screenshot or some kind of evidence to prove that this leaker actually presented this info PRIOR to B-K's release. Otherwise, it's just your usual BS artist.
am I the only person bothered by the concept of a character being "50%" likely? I mean, that makes it sound like Sakurai's whims are the weather and maybe we'll get rain, maybe not. Technically speaking the character is either 100% in or 0% in.
In reality, you're absolutely right. It's either Geno is 100% coming or he's not, but since we don't know Sakurai's will, we can only assess his chances based on the data we have which is positive but uncertain. There are enough indicators and rumors from semi-reputable sources to give him more than a 0% chance, but until we get something concrete like an SNK-style Nintendo leak, blatant datamine, or leaked gameplay footage, we can't know for 100% if he's in yet.