I'm just gonna respond to everyone in one post here. First off I've seen a few people suggesting/saying this so to be clear:
The Crash leak/Mii costume person is NOT the person who told me about Banjo a year ago.
The Banjo person with the microsoft source has never leaked anything other than banjo to me. Though we do talk here and there and speculate (we talked before terrys reveal and were speculating on who DLC4 might be for instance). So yeah this Mii Costume List/Crash stuff is coming from a completely different place than the Banjo stuff, I'd have said it was the Banjo leaker if that were the case as it would add credibility for sure but it is not that person.
Right now I'm thinking Ryu Hayabusa is DLC5, im not ready to go 100% all in on any character for DLC5 though. Hyabusa is just who my CURRENT GUESS is, based on what I'm hearing.
That isn't to say the "Crash/Mii costume list" thing isnt legitimate info though, there just might be something odd going on...
First off The Mii Costume list seems legitimate to me and its basically impossible to guess goemon/rocket grunts, so that part is a solid leak imo. The mallow/smithy/chocobo stuff attached to it DO make me think geno is likely but I have nothing more to say on that other than speculating. The brew leak also has a "soft" geno leak somewhat attached to it, so geno seems to be slightly a part of both of these leaks, which is good news imo.
I've talked to Sabi about this and even with their NoA source saying "no tracer no crash", as far as im aware sabi is still totally on board with the "mii costume list" part of the leak being a legit real leak. Also sabi has suggested the "no crash" quote from their NoA source MIGHT just mean "no crash as the NEXT fighter" as in Crash isnt DLC5 not that Crash isnt happening at all. Saying "no" to a character kind of implies you would have to know every character we are getting and that seems impossible to know at this point.
Now as for the Crash part of the leak specifically, I can only go so far with that piece. I'll explain what i mean:
Leaks are a game of telephone. What I was told by this person was that "fighter 5 is crash" and that it was coming from the same IGN source of theirs that told them the Mii Costume list in July. HOWEVER I have no contact with the IGN source so if the IGN source has MULTIPLE sources of their own its possible "Crash" and the "Mii costume list" are actually coming from different places. I have no way of knowing if there is a split in the chain of communication after the IGN source, so while it seems from our perspective that the "crash" and "mii costume list" are coming from the same source (the IGN source) I do not know for sure if both those pieces of information actually ORIGINATE from the same source. again its a game of telephone and I can only see so far down the line.
heres a visual for what I mean:
View attachment 242837
MY SPECULATION:
Right now I have a bit of a theory for what I think MIGHT be happening. This is something that seems to KEEP happening with leakers; They get the order wrong.
Vergeben heard "Erdrick" and thought he'd be the first DLC revealed... instead we got joker.
I heard Banjo and the Grinch Leak had me thinking he would be in the base game. Instead he WAS in, but as DLC.
Iamshifty heard Ryu Hayabusa and said he was the NEXT fighter (DLC4). instead we got Terry BUT potentially Ryu Hayabusa is DLC5.
What MIGHT be happening with this crash thing is ONCE AGAIN someone is hearing a solid character leak and ASSUMING the order.
So IF crash is in fact ORIGINATING from the same source as the Mii Costume List info (and again I explained its possible they aren't I have no way of knowing where the IGN Source is hearing this stuff from) then I think Crash is probably happening but LATER down the line, while Hayabusa is likely DLC5. Thats just my current speculation here on all of this though, I do not know for sure who DLC5 is or any characters getting into Smash right now. Even though the "leak" I was told was specifically "fighter 5 is crash" I think that is potentially just an assumption of the order. It seems leakers KEEP ASSUMING the order when the only real info they actually have is a characters name. I'm basically guilty of doing this myself with the Grinch Leak and the Banjo info. Smash characters come from tons of different companies and very few people have the whole picture but hearing only one name causes them to assume that name must be happening imminently when that is not always the case.